Submitted by Filipe dos Santos (fsantos@pucsp.br) on 2016-11-09T10:52:08Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Sandra Luzia Assis da Silva.pdf: 3032484 bytes, checksum: b0dcaa885d83a024c0061e0561bdde21 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-11-09T10:52:08Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Sandra Luzia Assis da Silva.pdf: 3032484 bytes, checksum: b0dcaa885d83a024c0061e0561bdde21 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-09-16 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / Our research analyses multiple dimensions of risk for people living with recurrent flooding in Vila América, Santo André/SP. To achieve our goals, the language of risks approach was used according to theoretical references developed in the Center for Studies and Research on Discursive Practices and Meaning Production (NEPPDS in Portuguese) at Pontifícia Universidade Católica de São Paulo (PUC/SP). Information was produced according to five main sources: 1) analyses of public documents; 2) field journals; 3) visits to the Civil Defence Department at the Municipal Service for Environmental Sanitation of Santo André (Semasa in Portuguese) and to Vila América; 4) semi-structured interviews with people who live in Vila América and 5) Photographs taken by residents and the researcher herself. Dialogic maps were used for analysis and interpretation. Information pro duced with this technic was gathered and counterpoised with specialized literature on risk. Results show that floods affect people socially, materially and economically, causing damages to physical and emotional health. Floods also highlight a structural problem in Brazil related to uncoordinated urbanization processes and fragile public policies, especially National Police for Civil Protection and Defence. To discuss the meaning of risk in daily life can contribute to overcame individualistic approaches to risk, traditionally applied to understand the ways people deal individually with risk in contemporary life. According to our research, the decision to move away or to stay in areas at risk of flooding is related to priorities people give to some risks instead of others. The process by which this hierarchy is produced depends on how people make sense of risks collectively. To understand how people give priority to certain risks instead of others is an option to i mprove preventive practices. Therefore, this research aims to give visibility to flood risk issues and civil rights violations at Vila América / Esta pesquisa tem como objetivo analisar as múltiplas dimensões do risco para pessoas que convivem com inundações recorrentes, tomando como estudo de caso a Vila América em Santo André/SP. Para alcançar os objetivos desta pesquisa, adotou-se o enfoque da linguagem dos riscos na perspectiva teórica desenvolvida no Núcleo de Estudos e Pesquisa em Práticas Discursivas e Produção de Sentidos (NEPPDS), da Pontifícia Universidade Católica de São Paulo (PUC/SP). A estratégia metodológica contemplou o cruzamento de informações provenientes de cinco fontes: 1) pesquisa documental com base em documentos de domínio público, jornais e sites; 2) diário de campo da pesquisadora; 3) visitas ao Serviço Municipal de Saneamento Ambiental de Santo André (Semasa), ao qual está afeto o Departamento de Defesa Civil e à Vila América; 4) entrevista semiestruturada com moradores do bairro, 5) imagens fotográficas provenientes do acervo dos moradores, feitas pela pesquisadora e de sites. Para análise e interpretação das entrevistas, foram elaborados mapas dialógicos e os dados obtidos foram confrontados com o que propõe a literatura especializada sobre risco. Percebemos que a inundação é um fenômeno que atinge a população de modo geral, ocasionando danos à saúde física e emocional, bem como materiais e socioeconômicos, evidencia um problema estrutural no país relacionado ao processo de urbanização, assim como a fragilidade e precariedade das ações e políticas, especialmente da Política Nacional de Proteção e Defesa Civil. Os resultados mostram que trabalhar com os sentidos de risco na vida cotidiana contribui para superar as abordagens individualistas, tradicionalmente empregadas para entender a maneira de lidar com os riscos na vida contemporânea. Em relação à convivência com riscos, percebeu-se que a decisão de mudar ou permanecer em locais sujeitos a inundação depende de fatores relacionados à prioridade que é dada a determinados riscos e aos sentidos a eles atribuídos, que os colocam em uma escala hierárquica. Compreender como as pessoas dão prioridade a determinados riscos em detrimentos de outros, torna-se mais uma opção para aprimorar ações de prevenção. Portanto, esta pesquisa, produzida por meio do compartilhamento de informações e de observações do cotidiano da Vila América, visa contribuir para dar visibilidade à problemática relacionada aos riscos de inundação e à violação dos direitos desses moradores

Le risque hydrologique associé aux crues rapides survenant en région méditerranéenne est variable dans l'espace et le temps. Des travaux ont montré une vulnérabilité forte des personnes mobiles face aux crues touchant les bassins versants de petite taille (< 20 km²). Le risque hydrologique qui en résulte s'ajoute au risque, mieux connu, associé au débordement des grands cours d'eau. Ce constat définit les enjeux de la modélisation hydrologique régionale mise en place dans ce travail, qui a pour objectif la compréhension des processus de crue de l'échelle du petit bassin versant (1 km²) à l'échelle des bassins régionaux (> 1000 km²). Le modèle utilisé dans cette thèse est construit avec la plate-forme de modélisation LIQUID, qui permet un couplage « à la carte » de modules représentant les processus que l'on souhaite intégrer au modèle. C'est un modèle utilisé sans calibration, dans une démarche de test d'hypothèses de fonctionnement hydrologique des bassins. La zone d'étude est la région Cévennes-Vivarais. Les premières simulations effectuées montrent une sensibilité forte des résultats du modèle aux propriétés des sols (conductivité hydraulique, épaisseurs), ainsi qu'au type de condition limite employée (percolation profonde ou non). Une distinction apparaît entre les comportements en crue des bassins situés sur roche sédimentaire et des bassins schisteux situés sur les reliefs cévenols. Une version du modèle intégrant la représentation des écoulements latéraux de surface et de subsurface est également développée, et déployée sur le bassin expérimental du Cartaou (0.5 km²). Les premiers résultats soulignent l'important rôle joué par ces écoulements à petite échelle. Une méthodologie d'analyse des récessions de débit est mise en place pour l'estimation des propriétés hydrauliques et des épaisseurs des horizons de roche altérée, non-décrits par les bases de données des sols de la région. Les résultats de l'analyse suggèrent une hiérarchie dans les valeurs des paramètres, contrôlée par le type de géologie. Les horizons de roche altérée sont ensuite intégrés dans la version finale du modèle, qui est déployée à l'échelle de la région entière. Les simulations effectuées sur l'année 2008 montrent l'intérêt de la prise en compte de ces épaisseurs de roche altérée, tant pour la simulation des débits en crue que lors des périodes inter-événementielles. Les simulations mettent également en évidence des différences de comportement entre les bassins du nord de la région (Ardèche, Tarn) et ceux du sud (Cèze, Gardon, Vidourle) que l'on peut relier à la géologie. / The hydrological risk associated with flash-floods in the mediteranean area is temporally and spatially variable. Recent works showed the vulnerability of mobile people during floods occurring on small catchments (area < 20 km²). The associated risk, added to the better-known risk related to the overflow of larger rivers, defines the objectives of the present thesis. This work aims at developing a regional distributed hydrological model to study the flood processes over a large range of spatial scales, from small catchments (1 km²) to large regional catchments (> 1000 km²). The model used in this thesis is built within the LIQUID hydrological modeling platform, which allows a modular coupling of the chosen hydrological processes. The model is used without calibration, with the purpose to test different hypotheses on the hydrological functioning of catchments. The studied area is the Cevennes-Vivarais region (south-east of France). The first simulations show a high sensitivity of the model results to soil properties (hydraulic conductivity, thickness), and to the bottom flux boundary condition (deep percolation). A different behavior is observed between catchments located on sedimentary rocks and catchments located in the mountain area, on metamorphic schists. A version of the model which accounts for lateral surface and sub-surface flows is developed, and tested on the Cartaou (0.5 km²) experimental catchment. Preliminary results highlight the importance of lateral flow processes in flood generation at small spatial scales. A streamflow recession analysis is performed to estimate hydraulic and thickness properties of weathered rock horizons, which are not described by regional soil databases. The results show a hierarchy in the estimated parameters, in relation with geology. The weathered rock horizons are implemented in the hydrological model, which is used at the regional scale. Simulations performed over the 2008 year bring out the better results obtained when using the weathered rock layer, for flood events simulations as well as for long-term simulations. The results also show differences between the hydrological behavior of north catchments (Ardèche, Tarn) and south catchments (Cèze, Gardon, Vidourle), which can be linked to the geology.

Submitted by LINDBERG NASCIMENTO JÚNIOR (juniohr@gmail.com) on 2018-05-30T15:41:15Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Lindberg Júnior_TESE.pdf: 16570476 bytes, checksum: 513b332e8811648289b77d07cd85e9eb (MD5) / Rejected by ALESSANDRA KUBA OSHIRO ASSUNÇÃO (alessandra@fct.unesp.br), reason: Solicitamos que realize correções na submissão seguindo as orientações abaixo: - Arrumar ordem das páginas pré-textuais seguindo a norma ABNT NBR 14724:2011 (Folha de rosto; Ficha catalográfica (verso da folha de rosto na versão impressa); Folha de aprovação; Dedicatória; Agradecimentos; Epígrafe; Resumo na língua vernácula; Resumo em língua estrangeira; Lista de ilustrações; Lista de tabelas; Lista de abreviaturas e siglas; Lista de símbolos; Sumário) - A ficha catalográfica deve ser revisada por um bibliotecário. Entrar no site da biblioteca para saber como proceder (http://www.fct.unesp.br/#!/biblioteca2340/servicos/elaboracao-de-ficha-catalografica/). Agradecemos a compreensão. on 2018-05-30T17:54:56Z (GMT) / Submitted by LINDBERG NASCIMENTO JÚNIOR (juniohr@gmail.com) on 2018-05-30T19:07:26Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Lindberg Junior_TESE.pdf: 18151655 bytes, checksum: 00da5babb2fac365e1672343c6b11cc6 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by ALESSANDRA KUBA OSHIRO ASSUNÇÃO (alessandra@fct.unesp.br) on 2018-05-30T19:57:34Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 nascimentojunior_l_dr_prud.pdf: 18151655 bytes, checksum: 00da5babb2fac365e1672343c6b11cc6 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-05-30T19:57:34Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 nascimentojunior_l_dr_prud.pdf: 18151655 bytes, checksum: 00da5babb2fac365e1672343c6b11cc6 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-03-16 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) / L'étude était basée sur le Système Climat Urbain articulé dans l'approche de la Géographie du Climat. Il a été développé par des processus comparatifs des climats urbains de Santos au Brésil, Maputo au Mozambique et Brisbane en Australie. Les trois villes sont situées dans les régions tropicales côtières du Hémisphère Sud, situé au sud du tropique du Capricorne, et positionnés dans les secteures l'Est de chaque pays. Ils ont eu un régime pluviométrique tropical, présent des occurrences d'inondations enregistrées annuelemnt et sont situés dans pays avec différents moment de développement inégal et combiné. Ainsi que l'objectif est d'étudier la constitution des climats urbains dans la même domaine climatique et avec différents moments de développement. En ce sens, les impacts des précipitations sur les villes ne sont pas considérés comme un phénomène climatique défavorable. Sinon, c'est l'un des phénomènes du climat urbain, un problème géographique classique qui est ancré dans les structure sociospatiales. La recherche a été organisée dans: l'analyse de la variabilité mensuelle et interannuelle des précipitations sur la période de 1951 à 2015; l'identification des systèmes de précipitations dans le monde tropical et dans les secteurs côtiers; cartes géotechniques caractérisant le site urbain et la susceptibilité aux inondations; l'élaboration d'indices de vulnérabilité aux catastrophes naturelles; et la géographie historique de l'urbanisation. L’analize comparative offres des moments de égalisation comme occupation des zones écologiquement fragiles et naturellement sensibles aux catastrophes, et de différenciation a partir du processus de vulnérabilizaton sociospatiale. Ces caractéristiques favorisent l'hétérogénéisation des climats urbains, les valorisant comme privés, puisque les aléas naturels sont relativisés par la sélectivité socio-spatiale des impacts. De cette manière, les processus sociospatiaux s'associent aux formes de contenu et aux spatiotemporalités de soutien. D'atténuation et de dépassement des risques résultant des climats urbains construits dans des lieux et des pays à différents moments de développement inégal et combiné. Organisé par l'expérience historique des lieux, le clima urbant est produit de la connaissance de la dynamique naturelle le quel a été favorisée par des interventions technico-scientifiques cumulatives et un contrôle des inondations pour le maintien et la reproduction des rapports sociaux de production de la nature. / O estudo foi baseado no Sistema do Clima Urbano articulado na abordagem da Geografia do Clima e desenvolvido por processos comparativos dos climas urbanos de Santos, no Brasil, Maputo, em Moçambique, e Brisbane, na Austrália. As três cidades estão situadas em ambientes tropicais costeiros do Hemisfério Sul, localizadas ao sul do Trópico de Capricórnio e posicionadas nos setores leste de cada país. Todas elas apresentam regime pluviométrico de clima tropical, situam-se em países em diferentes momentos do desenvolvimento desigual e combinado e apresentam anualmente registros de ocorrências de inundações e alagamentos. O objetivo foi investigar a constituição de climas urbanos que estão inseridos no mesmo domínio climático sob diferentes momentos do desenvolvimento. Neste sentido, os impactos das chuvas nas cidades não são vistos como manifestação climática adversa, de outro modo, a chuva é um dos fenômenos do clima urbano, um problema geográfico clássico que é incorporado nas tessituras socioespaciais que qualifica o fenômeno climático em risco climático. A pesquisa foi organizada com base em: análises da variabilidade mensal, sazonal e interanual da precipitação no período de 1951 a 2015; identificação de sistemas produtores de chuva no mundo tropical e nos setores costeiros; cartas geotécnicas de caracterização do sítio urbano e da susceptibilidade a inundações; elaboração de índices de vulnerabilidade a desastres naturais; e na geografia histórica da urbanização. A análise comparada oferece o encontro de similaridades e diferenças que organizam a interpretação da produção do espaço urbano em ocupação de áreas ambientalmente frágeis e naturalmente suscetíveis a desastres e processos de vulnerabilização das populações. Essas características promovem a particularização dos climas urbanos, já que os perigos naturais são relativizados pela seletividade dos processos socioespaciais que organizam os impactos em formas-conteúdo e espaçotemporalidades distintas de suporte, mitigação e superação dos riscos. Assim, devido a experiência histórica dos lugares, o clima urbano é resultado do conhecimento da dinâmica natural promovido pelas cumulativas intervenções técnico-científicas e controle das inundações para manutenção e reprodução das relações sociais de produção, que tem o Estado, o principal agente de consolidação e legitimação desses processos em espaço urbano. / Based on the Urban Climate System articulated in approach to Geography of Climate this study had developed by comparative processes between the urban climates of Santos - Brazil, Maputo - Mozambique and Brisbane - Australia. The three cities are located in Southern Hemisphere, located in the south of Tropic of Capricorn, and positioned in eastern sectors of each country. The three cities shows the rainfall patterns of tropical climate and occurrences of floods registered annually and located in counties on different moments of uneven and combined development. The objective was to investigate the constitution of urban climates at the same climatic domain witth different moments of development. That is why the rainfall impacts on the cities are not seen as an adverse climatic event. Otherwise, it is a phenomena of the urban climate, a classical geographical problem that embodied in sociospatial structure. The research was organized with: precipitation monthly and interannual variability analysis from 1951 to 2015; identification of sinoptic systems in the tropical world and coastal sectors; characterization of urban structure and susceptibility to floods; elaboration if social vulnerability index to natural disasters; historical geography of urbanization analysis. Ther comparative analisys offers a equalization moments of occupation of environmentally fragile areas and naturally susceptible to disasters, and differentiation moments as processes of sociospatial vulnerabilization. These characteristics shows a particularity of urban climates by relativization of natural hazards and the sociospatial selectivity of impacts. In this way, sociospatial conditions and processes for vulnerability to natural hazards are associated with spatiotemporalities forms and support of mitigation and overcoming risks. The result is a urban climates built in places and countries at different times of the development. This is organized by the historical experience of the places, the urban climat is a product of knowledge about the natural dynamics that was promoted by cumulative technical-scientific interventions and flood control, for maintenance and reproduction of social relations of production of nature.

Snow accumulation and snowmelt research is one of the most important hydrological issues in mountain areas World-wide. Spring snowmelt, usually in the combination with intensive rainfall or high air temperature, is one of the most common causes of flooding in the Czech Republic. Mathematical modeling of hydrological processes belongs to effective instruments of flood protection and finds its use in a variety of areas. For example, water management, hydrological forecasts for agriculture, information for dam regulation or for recreational areas and water sports are all affected. This thesis focuses on snow accumulation and snowmelt modeling with use of the empirical Degree-day method. This method is based on the relationship between snowmelt rate and air temperature. The American HAC-HMS programme is used for the simulation of hydrological processes. The main goal of this thesis is to calibrate the model and to simulate snow accumulation, snowmelt and run-off from the watershed. The experimental basin 'Ptačí potok' is situated in the central part of the Šumava Mountains, in altitude of about 1,200 m. Two winter seasons, 2011 and 2012, were simulated. Simulations showed high reliability and correct calibration of the Temperature index snowmelt model. Simulations of the snow water equivalent evolution...

As inundações urbanas apontam como um dos exemplos de desastres naturais que vêm causando sérios danos e prejuízos à população, registrando, em nível mundial, tanto o aumento como a intensidade de ocorrências. Uma das consequências disso é o aumento dos impactos econômicos causados por estes eventos e a mensuração de danos associados a eventos precisa ser mais explorada para auxiliar na melhoria do sistema de planejamento e gestão de áreas que ofereçam risco à população. Com o intuito de contribuir com esta discussão, este trabalho acadêmico objetivou encontrar alternativas para mensurar o custo dos danos de inundações visando a obtenção de parâmetros econômicos para fins de auxílio à tomada de decisão em relação ao planejamento urbano. A hipótese proposta foi testar se o custo do risco de inundações é crescente e se os valores encontrados são significativos o suficiente para auxiliar a tomada de decisões que envolvam o planejamento urbano, utilizando como método a função marginal. Para utilização desta metodologia foram necessários os seguintes dados: a obtenção de dados hidrológicos, diagrama de permanência e o tempo de retorno dos níveis máximos hidrológicos, base de dados altimétricos, prejuízo histórico de inundações, planta de valores mobiliários, valor produção industrial, valor produção comercial e número de transbordos efetuados. A aplicação do método foi realizada através de uma função marginal, obtendo para cada variação do nível de inundação um custo marginal correspondente, representando os dados através dos gráficos de cota/prejuízo. A disponibilidade de dados existentes sobre as últimas maiores inundações ocorridas em Porto Alegre, nos anos de 1967 e 1941, descritas em detalhes pelo Estudo de Viabilidade Técnico Econômica das Obras de Defesa de Porto Alegre e Canoas contra as inundações, elaborado na década de 60, pelo Departamento Nacional de Obras de Saneamento (D.N.O.S.) foram determinantes para a escolha do estudo de caso. Como resultados dos custos dos riscos de inundações podemos sinalizar que, considerando danos diretos e indiretos para as áreas residencial, industrial e de transporte público, numa inundação atingindo uma cota entre 3,10m e 3,20m para os bairros Centro Histórico, Floresta, Humaitá, Praia de Belas e São Geraldo seriam na ordem de R$ 11,5 bilhões. A partir deste montante podemos refletir sobre a importância dos sistemas de proteção contra inundações para segurança da população e quanto ao uso de áreas de risco, que exigem soluções que merecem ser pensadas e planejadas a partir de múltiplos olhares e saberes. Quanto a aplicação do método, podemos concluir que é de fácil acesso e utilização, tendo a hipótese confirmada a partir da obtenção de valores crescentes a cada cota incremental e um montante expressivo o suficiente para justificar que este é um assunto que precisa ser considerado no que se refere a aplicação dos instrumentos legais de planejamento urbano e principalmente na tomada de decisão. / Urban floods are pointed as one of the examples of natural disasters that are causing serious damages to the population, it is recording, worldwide, both increase and intensity of occurrences. One of those occurences consequences is the increase of the economical impact of these events, so that the measuring of the damages associated to this situations must be more explored to help in a management and planning system of areas that offer risk to population. We tryed to contribute with this discussion, so that this scholary work aimed to find alternatives to measure the costs of floods damages, and also tried to obtain economic parameters to help to urban planning. The proposed hypothesis was to test whether the cost of the risk of flooding is increasing and the values found are significant enough to assist decision-making involving urban planning, using as method the marginal function. To use this methodology the following data were needed: hydrological data, permanence diagram and retorn time of the maximum hydrological levels, altimetric data bases, historical flood damages, real estate value plant, industrial production value, comercial production value and made transshipment numbers. The method was applied through a marginal function, so that we obtained to each flood level variation a corresponding marginal cost, the data were represented through quota/loss graphics. The existent data from the lats biggers floods at Porto Alegre, in 1967 and 1941, that were described in details by the Thecnical Economical Viability Study of Porto Alegre and Canoas Defense Works against floods, made at 60´s, by the National Department of Sanitation Works (DNOS) were determinant to choose case study. The results found about the cost of floods can signal that the damage, considering direct and indirect damages to residential, industrial and public transport areas, in a flood that can reach a dimension between 3,10m ad 3,20m, at “Centro Histórico”, “Floresta”, “Humaita”, “Praia de Belas” and “São Geraldo” regions, could be about R$11,5 billion. From this amount we can reflect about the importance of flood protection systems to the security of the population and about the use of risk areas, which requires solutions that deserve to be thought and planned from multiple perspectives and knowledges. As the application the method, we can conclude that it is easy to access and use, and the hypothesis confirmed from obtaining increased amounts each incremental dimensions and a significant amount enough to justify that this is an issue that needs to be considered in refers to application of the legal instruments of urban planning and especially in decision making.

Recent management efforts in the Smith and Bybee Lakes Wildlife Area (SBL), a 700-ha preserve in north Portland, Oregon, have included using a water control structure to suppress invasive reed canarygrass (Phalaris arundinacea L.) by flooding during spring and early summer growth periods. For the first year of managed flooding, I sought to determine: (a) the extent and distribution of reed canarygrass at SBL; (b) the effectiveness of the change in water level at suppressing reed canarygrass; and ( c) the effects of the change in water level on other plant species. I established 30 vegetation transects throughout SBL before completion of the water control structure. These transects were randomly distributed, placed perpendicularly to the shorelines of the wetlands, and had a cumulative length of 3.1 km. I measured vegetation on the transects in autumn 2003 and autumn 2004 using the line intercept method at 10-cm intervals. I surveyed the transects to generate elevation profiles, accurate to 0.15 cm, to determine depth and duration of flooding, which I correlated with vegetative changes. I also monitored inundation depth, growth, and phenological response of individual stands of reed canarygrass during the 2004 growing season.

Les modèles pluie-débit sont des outils essentiels pour de nombreuses applications hydrologiques, notamment la prévision des crues. L’objet de cette thèse est d’examiner les performances d’un modèle événementiel distribué, dont l’intérêt est de résumer la représentation des processus à la phase de crue, et la condition initiale à un indice de saturation du bassin facilement observable ou accessible. Ce dernier dispense de modéliser la phase inter-crue, et simplifie la paramétrisation et le calage du modèle. Le modèle étudié combine une fonction de production type SCS et une fonction de transfert type lag and route, appliquées à une discrétisation du bassin en mailles carrées régulières.Le modèle est d’abord testé sur le bassin versant du Real Collobrier. Ce bassin méditerranéen est suivi depuis plus de 50 ans par l’IRSTEA, et dispose d’une exceptionnelle densité de mesures de pluies et de débits. Cet environnement favorable permet de limiter les incertitudes sur l’estimation des pluies et d’évaluer les performances intrinsèques du modèle. Dans ces conditions, les crues sont bien reconstituées à l’aide d’un jeu de paramètres unique pour l’ensemble des épisodes testés, à l’exception de la condition initiale du modèle. Celle-ci apparaît fortement corrélée avec l’humidité du sol en début d’épisode, et peut être prédéterminée de façon satisfaisante par le débit de base ou l’indice w2 fourni par le modèle SIM de Météo-France. Les performances du modèle sont ensuite étudiées en dégradant la densité des pluviomètres, et rendent compte du niveau de performances du modèle dans les cas que l’on rencontre le plus souvent. .La variabilité spatiale des paramètres du modèle est étudiée à l’échelle de différents sous-bassins du Real Collobrier. La comparaison a permis de mettre en évidence et de corriger un effet d’échelle concernant l’un des paramètres de la fonction de transfert. Les relations entre la condition initiale du modèle et les indicateurs d’humidités des sols en début d’épisode restent bonnes à l’échelle des sous-bassins, mais peuvent être significativement différentes selon les sous-bassins. Une seule relation ne permet pas de normaliser l’initialisation du modèle sur l’ensemble des sous-bassins, à une échelle spatiale de quelques km2 ou dizaines de km2. Dans le cas de l’indice d’humidité du sol w2, une explication possible est que cet indice ne prend pas en compte suffisamment finement les propriétés des sols. Enfin, la variabilité spatiale des paramètres du modèle est étudiée à l’échelle d’un échantillon d’une quinzaine de bassins méditerranéens de quelques centaines de km2, associés à des paysages et des fonctionnements hydrologiques divers. La comparaison montre qu’à cette échelle, le lien entre les indicateurs de saturation du bassin et la condition initiale peut rester stable par type de bassin, mais varie significativement d’un type de bassin à l’autre. Des pistes sont proposées pour expliquer cette variation.En conclusion, ce modèle événementiel distribué représente un excellent compromis entre performances et facilité de mise en œuvre. Les performances sont satisfaisantes pour un bassin donné ou pour un type de bassin donné. L’analyse et l’interprétation de la variabilité spatiale des paramètres du modèle apparaît cependant complexe, et doit faire l’objet du test d’autres indicateurs de saturation des bassins, par exemple mesures in situ ou mesures satellitaires de l’humidité des sols. / Rainfall-runoff models are essential tools for many hydrological applications, including flood forecasting. The purpose of this thesis was to examine the performances of a distributed event model for reproducing the Mediterranean floods. This model reduces the parametrization of the processes to the flood period, and estimates the saturation of the catchment at the beginning of the event with an external predictor, which is easily observable or available. Such predictor avoids modelling the inter-flood phase and simplifies the parametrization and the calibration of the model. The selected model combines a distributed SCS production function and a Lag and Route transfer function, applied to a discretization of the basin in a grid of regular square meshes.The model was first tested on the Real Collobrier watershed. This Mediterranean basin has been monitored by IRSTEA for more than 50 years and has an exceptional density of rainfall and flow measurements. This favourable environment made it possible to reduce the uncertainties on the rainfall input and to evaluate the actual performances of the model. In such conditions, the floods were correctly simulated by using constant parameters for all the events, but the initial condition of the event-based model. This latter was highly correlated to predictors such as the base flow or the soil water content w2 simulated by the SIM model of Meteo-France. The model was then applied by reducing the density of the rain gauges, showing loss of accuracy of the model and biases in the model parameters for lower densities, which are representative of most of the catchments.The spatial variability of the model parameters was then studied in different Real Collobrier sub-basins. The comparison made it possible to highlight and correct the scale effect concerning one of the parameters of the transfer function. The catchment saturation predictors and the initial condition of the model were still highly correlated, but the relationships differed from some sub-catchments. Finally, the spatial variability of the model parameters was studied for other larger Mediterranean catchments, of which area ranged from some tenth to hundreds of square kilometres. Once more, the model could be efficiently initialized by the base flow and the water content w2, but significant differences were found from a catchment to another. Such differences could be explained by uncertainties affecting as well the rainfall estimation as the selected predictors. However, the relationships between the initial condition of the model and the water content w2 were close together for a given type of catchment.In conclusion, this distributed event model represents an excellent compromise between performance and ease of implementation. The performances are satisfactory for a given catchment or a given type of catchment. The transposition of the model to ungauged catchment is less satisfactory, and other catchment saturation indicators need to be tested, e.g. in situ measurements or satellite measurements of soil moisture.

Les bassins versants nord-méditerranéens sont fréquemment soumis à des crues extrêmes liées à des précipitations convectives intenses et aux caractéristiques hydrologiques locales. La région méditerranéenne est considérée comme une des régions les plus affectées par le réchauffement climatique, ce qui laisse présager des changements dans le cycle hydrologique. L’objectif de cette thèse CIFRE est d’évaluer les impacts du changement climatique sur les précipitations extrêmes à travers une méthode dite de « futurisation », dans laquelle une fonction de transfert est construite en comparant la distribution des quantiles de précipitations du climat présent et futur. Les impacts du changement climatique sur les précipitations extrêmes sont évalués à travers les simulations à haute résolution EMCORDEX. L’exercice se focalise sur le bassin versant de l’Orbieu dans le sud de la France. La méthode de futurisation est appliquée à six épisodes majeurs de précipitations ayant généré des crues éclair. Les impacts hydrologiques des équivalents statistiques futurs des épisodes de précipitations sont ensuite évalués à travers un modèle hydrologique évènementiel conceptuel. Une estimation des changements d’humidité du sol liés au changement climatique est réalisée et couplée à la quantification des impacts hydrologiques. Le choix d’une modélisation hydrologique conceptuelle a été motivé par ses futures applications opérationnelles. Les conséquences de ce choix sont évaluées à travers une comparaison avec un modèle hydrologique à base physique. Ce dernier est mis en place grâce à une caractérisation du fonctionnement hydrologique du bassin versant de l’Orbieu appuyée par plusieurs campagnes de terrain. / Northern mediterranean meso-scale river catchments are submitted to extremes floods events linked to intense convective precipitation and local hydrologic features. The Mediterranean region is known to be one of the most affected areas by global warming, and it is likely that changes can be expected in the hydrological cycle. The aim of this CIFRE thesis is to assess the climate change impacts on extreme precipitation events using a so-called “futurization” method, in which a transfer function is built by comparing the quantiles of distribution for both present and future climate precipitation. The climate change impact on extreme precipitation events is assessed over high-resolution EMCORDEX simulations. The focus is on the Orbieu catchment located in southwestern France. The futurization method is applied to six major events of precipitation that trigger flash floods. The hydrological impacts of those future statistical counterpart precipitation events are therefore assessed through a conceptual event-based hydrological model. An assessment of soil moisture changes under climate change is performed and coupled to the hydrological impact quantification. The conceptual hydrological model chosen, have been motivated by its future operational applications. The consequences of that choice are assessed through a comparison to a physically based hydrological model. It has been implemented through the hydrological functioning caracterisation of the Orbieu catchment supported by several field campaigns.

Abstract not available

I Sverige finns idag en vedertagen metod för att bestämma dimensionerande flöde för dammanläggningar. De teoretiska beräkningarna av dimensionerande flöde för dammanläggningar tillhörande flödesdimensioneringsklass I baseras på HBV-modellen, en begreppsmässig hydrologisk beräkningsmodell som beskriver samspelet mellan de meteorologiska och hydrologiska förhållanden som råder inom ett avrinningsområde. Begreppsmässiga hydrologiska modeller baseras på vattenbalansen och används för att bestämma tillrinning till vattendrag, sjöar eller andra vattenförekomster. Vid hydrologisk modellering med begreppsmässiga modeller tas ingen explicit hänsyn till vattendragets geometri. Trånga sektioner i naturliga vattendrag kan hindra vattnets framfart och orsaka dämning uppströms den trånga sektionen. Till följd av det kan en del av flödestoppen kvarhållas i terrängen och därmed dämpas och fördröjas. Hydrauliska modeller beskriver vattnets flöde genom vattendraget. Högupplöst höjddata utgör grunden i en hydraulisk modell och vid hydraulisk modellering tas således hänsyn till avrinningsområdets topografi såväl som vattendragets batymetri. Syftet med detta examensarbete var att analysera tillförlitligheten i beräknade dimensionerande flöden framtagna enligt Flödeskommitténs Riktlinjer för bestämning av dimensionerande flöden för dammanläggningar. Genom att upprätta hydrauliska modeller över två specifika vattendragssträckor som berörs av trånga sektioner kunde det undersökas huruvida de trånga sektionerna orsakar någon flödesdämpning samt om flödesdämpningen beror av storleken på vattenflödet. De områden som var föremål för denna studie var en delsträcka av Övre Lagan samt en del av Bolmån som är Lagans största tillflöde. Resultaten visade att flödestopparna dämpades och att det var de trånga sektionerna som orsakade den huvudsakliga flödesdämpningen. Vidare visade resultaten att den relativa dämpningen beror av storleken på inflödet i de hydrauliska modellerna. Den relativa dämpningen av det dimensionerandet flödet vid Övre Lagan var marginell, 1,2 % respektive 2,0 %, medan den vid Bolmån uppgick till 6,7 %. Det faktum att de dimensionerande flödena emellertid dämpades i de båda fallen bör vara skäl nog att se över metoden för bestämmandet av dimensionerande flöden för dammanläggningar tillhörande flödesdimensioneringsklass I och undersöka huruvida det är möjligt att innefatta hydraulisk modellering i den idag vedertagna beräkningsmetodiken. / In Sweden there is currently an accepted method for determining the design floods for dams which is described in The Swedish Design Flood Guidelines. The theoretical calculations of the design floods for dams associated with Flood Design Category I are based on the HBV model, a conceptual hydrological model that describes the interaction between the meteorological and hydrological conditions within a basin. Conceptual hydrological models are based on the water balance and are used to determine runoff to streams, lakes or other bodies of water. Conceptual hydrological models do not take explicit account for the geometry of the watercourse. Narrow sections in natural streams may prevent water flow and cause impoundment upstream from the narrow section. Following that, a part of the flow peak can be retained in the terrain and thereby attenuated and delayed. Hydraulic models describe the flow of water through the watercourse. High resolution elevation data is the foundation of a hydraulic model and hydraulic models thus take into account the basin topography as well as the watercourse bathymetry. The objective of this study was to analyze the reliability of design floods that have been determined according to The Swedish Design Flood Guidelines. By establishing hydraulic models of two specific streams affected by narrow sections it could be examined whether the narrow sections cause flow attenuation and whether the flow attenuation depends on the size of the water flow. The areas which were the subject of this study were a subsection of River Lagan and part of River Bolmån, which is River Lagan’s largest tributary. The results of the hydraulic model simulations showed that the flow peaks were attenuated and that it was the narrow sections that caused the main flow attenuation. Furthermore, the results showed that the relative attenuation depends on the size of the inflow in the hydraulic models. The relative attenuation of the design floods was 1.2 % and 2.0 % at River Lagan and 6.7 % at River Bolmån. The relative attenuation of the design flood was thus marginal at River Lagan. The fact that the design floods nevertheless were attenuated at both areas which were the subject of this study should be reason enough to review the method for the determination of design floods for dams associated with Flood Design Category I and examine whether it is possible to include hydraulic modeling in today’s conventional calculation methodology.