South African foreign policy is not made in a bubble; as a democracy since 1994, its outward orientation is theoretically subject to lobbying and pressure from outside groups as well as jockeying among bureaucratic entities. This study applies the principles of Foreign Policy Analysis, a theoretical framework that attempts to unpack the processes through which governments’ foreign policies are made, to South Africa to determine whether foreign policy making is in reality open to outside inputs, or whether the foreign policy arena—as in many countries globally—is an elite reserve. The thesis has a specific focus on the 1994-2008 period, during which time Deputy President (1994-99) and later President (1999-2008) Thabo Mbeki dominated government’s foreign policy formulation, to determine whether South Africa’s democratic transition was accompanied by “democratization” of the foreign policy making process compared to the apartheid government. In addition, the thesis sought to disaggregate the various actors involved in the process—both from the influencing and decision making sides of the coin—to analyze their individual roles in influencing foreign policy, both pre- and post-1994. The thesis found that the dominant actor in South African foreign policy, both before and after 1994, was the national leader (Prime Minister before 1984; President thereafter) or, on occasion, his chosen delegate if the leader was disinterested in the external realm. This is in part because South African Constitutions vest most decision-making power in the executive, in line with international norms, but also due to a lack of pressure by non-governmental actors. While South Africa’s post-apartheid dispensation allows for greater inputs by the public and other outside actors, the practice of influencing foreign policy—either through the ballot box or through concerted pressure between elections—changed very little. Public engagement on foreign policy, already weak, did not improve after 1994. Parliament, despite having a dedicated committee on the issue, showed itself largely disinterested, as did the broader ANC. The press, business, the ANC, and most civil society organizations similarly showed little desire to weigh in on foreign policy beyond isolated instances. Only academia consistently attempted to influence policy during the Mandela and Mbeki administrations, with mixed results. Ultimately, blame for this lack of change appears to lie mostly with outside actors themselves, who during the first 14 years of democracy failed to take advantage of political space opened to them. In examining Thabo Mbeki specifically, the thesis found that he took advantage of this leeway to dominate the foreign policy debate and rarely went out of his way to open the foreign policy debate any more than he had to. He gave short shrift to the inputs of pressure groups; had no time for the press or business; and dominated the ANC and its parliamentary caucus. Mbeki had a clear and well-defined worldview, and he had little time for people or organizations with decidedly different views. That said, those close to Mbeki, and even outsiders—notably from the academic community—paint a far more nuanced picture of the man, as someone who would listen and engage with others on foreign policy, at least if he believed they had done their homework on the issues in question. Hence, portrayals of Mbeki as a “dictator” in the foreign policy realm appear to be overstated. / Political Sciences / D. Litt. et Phil. (African Politics)

Esta tese provê um método e modelos de análise geral para o conceito de inserção internacional formulado por Amado Cervo, que têm como objetivo explicar a variação de comportamento e posicionamento dos Estados nas hierarquias globais, a partir das mudanças nas configurações das políticas econômica, externa e de defesa. O objetivo desta tese é explicar quais são os caminhos escolhidos pelos governos de Brasil México para o posicionamento de seus países nas hierarquias globais e quais foram os resultados obtidos no início do século XXI. Três perguntas estabelecem o nexo causal da investigação, i) quais posições querem os Estados e como/o que fazem para atingi-las?; ii) qual é a realidade dos fatos quando da tomada das decisões e de sua implementação (de modo mais simplista: o que está acontecendo nos países e no mundo?); e, iii) quais são os resultados obtidos? Olhamos para três pontos distintos, mas complementares: i) os tipos ideais do que podem fazer os Estados (modelos de inserção), para enquadrar o que fazem; ii) as estratégias de inserção, para entender como fazem e o que fazem; e, iii) os resultados em termos de posição relativa na hierarquia. A investigação se funda numa análise histórica comparada dos determinantes dos modelos de inserção internacional dos países da América Latina a partir do final da Guerra Fria até o fim da primeira metade da segunda década do século XXI (1990-2014), e se utiliza desta base para apoiar generalizações acerca das variações no comportamento dos Estados ao longo das últimas duas décadas e meia. O trabalho contribuiu à extensa tradição de pesquisa cujo objetivo é interpretar as interações entre os Estados, observando-os desde o ambiente em que se inserem e também sob o ponto de vista doméstico. Ademais, nos dirigimos às visões das relações internacionais nascidas na América Latina, levando em conta seus valores, preferências e contingências próprios. / This thesis provides a method and general analysis models for the concept of global positioning introduced by Amado Cervo, whose goal is to explain the variation in States behaviour and their positioning in global hierarchies, considering changes in economic, foreign and defence politics\' configuration. This thesis aims at explaining what are the paths chosen by Brazilian and Mexican governments for positioning their countries in the global hierarchies, and the results obtained at the beginning of the 21st century. Three main questions provide the causal link of this investigation, i) which positions do the States aim for and how/what they do to get them?, ii) what is the reality of the facts when making decisions and implementing them (or put in a simpler way: what is happening in the world?); and, iii) what are the results obtained? We look into three different but complementary issues: i) the ideal types of what States can do (positioning models) to portrait their actions; ii) the positioning strategies, so we can understand how States do it and what they do; and iii) the results on the hierarchy\'s relative position. The investigation is based on a compared historical analysis of the determinants of the global positioning models of Latin America countries from the end of the Cold War until the end of the first half of the second decade of the 21st century (1990-2014), and uses it to support generalizations on the variations on States behaviour during the last two and a half decades. The work contributed to the wide research tradition whose goal is to read the interactions between the States, observing them in the environment in which they are inserted and also through a domestic point of view. Furthermore, we look into international relations insights arisen from Latin America, taking into account its own values, preferences and contingencies.

The mainstream theories of international relations (IR) can be categorized under two approaches: Cultural and Systems. Although the two approaches appear to be at the opposite ends of the spectrum, this paper aims to evaluate both approaches, and to provide a systemic approach to foreign policy: The systems thinking and culture (STC). STC attempts to incorporate domestic culture, a unit-level force, in analyzing states’ behavior in the international system, while still preserving the structure, as emphasized in systemic theories like neorealism. The STC model shows how the domestic culture as a unit-level force, and the structure as a systems-level force, can shape a state’s behavior and policies in the international political system.

Notwithstanding the promises of an end to the Françafrique era, France remains the desired external security actor in francophone Africa. The purpose of this thesis is to examine the discursive legitimation strategies of Emmanuel Macron on France’s military activism in Mali, inquiring ‘How did the French President Emmanuel Macron discursively legitimize France’s military presence in Mali before the announcement of the end of Operation Barkhane?’. The aim is further to explore the construction of the French Self and the Malian Other in the legitimation discourse, asking ‘How did Macron construct a French ‘Self’ and a Malian ‘Other’ in his discourse as legitimate reasons for maintaining the intervention?’. By applying an interpretivist, post-structuralist discourse analysis to official statements published between 2017 and 2021, the thesis concludes that Macron’s discursive legitimation strategies remain approximately similar, yet the greater emphasis on rhetorical themes of equal partnership, non-interference in internal affairs, democracy and an ever-increasing multilateralism have taken place in the face of Paris’ damaged legitimacy. Focusing on the construction of the Self and the Other affirms that Macron constructs the Malian Other as significantly different from the French Self even though the country is seen as capable of transformation and cooperation, requiring the compliance of Western advice.

By agreeing to The Responsibility to Protect doctrine (R2P) at the United Nations World Summit in 2005, and later adopting a resolution reaffirming the support, the Russian federation accepted a responsibility of the international community to protect populations of other states, if the state itself manifestly fails to protect its own populations. However, Russia has acted in an inconsistent way by exercising its commitment to the R2P principle occasionally. The purpose of this study is to give an answer to the question of why Russia has acted in an inconsistent way to The Responsibility to Protect doctrine. Analyzing the inconsistency puzzle through the realist, liberal and constructivist lens, questioning why Russia has accepted an R2P intervention regarding Libya to halt ongoing mass atrocities, but repeatedly has vetoed against R2P interventions regarding Syria and recently regarding Venezuela, the study concludes that a combination of the three approaches is needed to explain and understand Russia’s inconsistent reaction. Second, it concludes that Russia acted inconsistently because President Medvedev was affected by, and agreeing with, international norms, thereby accepting an R2P into Libya, while President Putin was affected by, and wanted to hold on to the Russian identity. By rejecting R2P interventions in the Syria and Venezuela cases, Putin thereby secured Russian national interests, using a liberal narrative as a pretext for the actions.

The principal aims of the research are to identify the nature and scope of Turkish foreign policy change towards Iran in the period 2002-2012 - the first ten years of the successive governments of the Justice and Development Party (AKP). Then, individual sources of foreign policy change and their respective roles in shaping Turkish foreign policy toward Iran will be investigated. As the research is theoretically grounded in the subfield of foreign policy analysis known as foreign policy change, the reader is familiarized with a variety of different models used in the study of foreign policy change. In order to assess the relevance of the individual sources, an alternative explanatory model is designed. The application of the designed foreign policy model highlights the necessity of applying a wider approach in the quest to assess Turkish foreign policy change, taking into account the different domestic and international sources in order to achieve a comprehensive explanation that can evaluate the relative power of international and domestic political, economic, and ideational sources serving as its driving mechanisms. The role of economic factors - long seen as fundamental in shaping Turkey's foreign policy toward its neighbors - and the role of security concerns are subsequently identified as...

Russian government justified the war with Georgia by a set of normatively-legislative arguments. Intervention in Georgia was in accordance to those arguments legitimate. This rationalization proved to be invalid. Main goal of this diploma thesis was therefore to find Russian motives for the war with Georgia. Our hypothesis was that the reaction to Georgian military operation in South Ossetia was a result of a certain dilemma in Russian government. We used two methodological concepts introduced in the book of Graham T. Allison "Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis" for the analysis. The first model, "rational actor", presumes that countries act in the international relations always rationally. "Rational actor" showed that Russian reaction was a result of the rational choice - Russia evaluated military confrontation with Georgia as the most advantageous alternative. The governments' behavior is in accordance to the second model, "organizational process", always limited by behavior of their parts - organizations. The second model revealed that the Russian reaction was result of activated programs, whose character led to massive military action. Our analysis showed that the model which fits better in the case of finding motives of Russian government for the intervention in Georgia...

Despite that alliance formation commonly happen when states share mutual interests and like-mindedness, it is possible to find alliances, where the states promote radically different political, normative, and cultural characteristics. Such an alliance is observed in the case of Saudi Arabia and the United States, which subsequently have endured. The following research will thus elaborate on how the Saudi-American alliance have endured throughout, despite their radical differences. To examine the endurance of the Saudi-American alliance, this research has conducted a case study and used Walter Carlsnaes Foreign Policy model. The research has concludingly found that the alliance has endured due to a variety of factors such as economic trade, regional instability, and security, that consistently has persisted throughout. Despite the American role as a hegemon and the changing administrations throughout the endurance, it has been argued that the longevity of the relation has contributed to the consistency of the factors mentioned above. This is evident in the unpredictability in terms of the region, instability, and insecurity that opposes threats to the U.S., and economic trade relations which have discouraged the U.S. from leaving the alliance.

В настоящей диссертации изучается внешняя политика Советского Союза в период пика его существования, то есть, после кончины Иосифа Виссарионовича Сталина в 1953 г., до прихода Михаила Сергеевича Горбачева к власти в 1985 г. Чтобы пристально понимать такой вопрос, предлагается разделить на два разные основные периоды: Хрущевская эра (1953-1964); и Брежневская эра (1964-1982 гг.), в которую также вписываются правления Андропова (1982-84) и Черненко (1984-85). Второй период называется «развитым социализмом» его сторонниками или «эпохой застоя» ее критиками. Чтобы создать более эффективную и одновременно упрощенную аналитическую структуру, выбираются три примера двусторонних отношений с странами, которые играли доминировавшую роль в каждой из тогдашних «миров»: Соединенные Штаты (Первой мир или группа развитых капиталистические страны), Китайская Народная Республика (Второй мир, или группа стран социалистического лагеря), и Индия (Третий мир, или группа развивающихся стран). В данном исследовании стремится применять и продвигать многоуровневый подход в области анализа внешней политики (АВП), с учетом и теорию «Двухуровневую игру» Роберта Пунтама, и так называемый неоклассический реализм. Две основные цели определяют осуществление этой работы: первая из них является эмпирическим пониманием поведения одного из двух главнейших держав во время «холодной войны». Вторая – вносить критический вклад в аналитические дебаты внутри самой АВП. Одним из основных результатов данного исследования является определение процесса переориентации в советской внешней политике в 1950-х годах. На протяжении следующих десятилетий, сущность действий Советского государства оставалась неизменной, только с корректировками на стратегических и программных сферах в каждом из трех пересмотренных взаимоотношений. Для более точного описания внешней политики, утверждается необходимость учитывать различные аналитические аспекты в соответствии с многоуровневым подходом, такие как: глобальное соотношение сил, внутренние борьбы между разными социальными группами, мировоззрение правящей элиты, а также динамику институтов, в которых принимаются и реализуются решения. Эта работа основывается на основной источник, особенно в отношении экономических и военных данных, а также и на вторичные источники российской и зарубежной историографий. / Esta tese busca entender e explicar a política externa da União Soviética durante seu ápice, isto é, entre 1953, após a morte de Josef V. Stálin, e 1985, com a ascensão de Mikhail S. Gorbatchov. Para uma compreensão mais abrangente do tema, propõe-se a distinção de dois períodos principais: a Era Khrushchov (1953-1964); e a Era Brejnev (1964-1982), à qual acrescentamos, também, os hiatos de Andropov (1982-84) e Tchernenko (1984-85), fase denominada como ‘Socialismo Desenvolvido’, por seus próceres, ou ‘Era da Estagnação’, por seus críticos. Para obter um recorte analítico ao mesmo tempo mais robusto e ao mesmo tempo parcimonioso, selecionam-se três relações bilaterais de países representativos de uma categorização bastante comum durante a Guerra Fria, a imagem dos Três Mundos: os Estados Unidos (Primeiro Mundo, ou dos países capitalistas avançados), a República Popular da China (Segundo Mundo, ou dos países de orientação socialista), e a Índia (Terceiro Mundo, ou do heterogêneo grupo dos países em desenvolvimento). Busca-se desenvolver e aplicar uma metodologia multinível no escopo da Análise de Política Externa (APE), tendo-se como inspiração tanto a Teoria dos Jogos de Dois Níveis, de Robert Putnam, como o chamado realismo neoclássico. Dois grandes objetivos guiam a realização desta pesquisa: o primeiro, de caráter empírico, que é o de entender o comportamento de um dos dois grandes polos de poder durante a Guerra Fria; e o segundo, contribuir criticamente para o debate analítico em APE. Uma das principais revelações da tese é a ocorrência de um processo de reorientação na política externa do país na década de 1950, cuja essência se manteve inalterada nas décadas posteriores, com alterações no plano estratégico e tático em cada uma das três interações supramencionadas. Em consonância à abordagem multinível, defende-se a necessidade de se considerar diferentes níveis de análise em um mesmo esquema analítico para uma compreensão mais rigorosa da política externa, como a correlação de forças no sistema internacional, bem com as lutas internas, a visão de mundo predominante em dado governo e, também, a dinâmica das instituições onde as decisões são formuladas e implementadas. O trabalho utiliza tanto fontes primárias, sobretudo de indicadores econômicos e militares, mas também secundárias por meio da historiografia de autores russos como de outras nacionalidades. / This dissertation aims to analyze the foreign policy during the peak of Soviet Union, after Yosef Stalin’s death in 1953, and before the rise of Mikhail S. Gorbachev in 1985. For a more comprehensive understanding on the issue, a division of two distinct main periods is proposed: the Khrushchev Era (1953-1964), and the Brezhnev Era (1964-1982), to which is also added the hiatuses of Andropov (1982-84) and of Chernenko (1984-85), which is labeled ‘Developed Socialism’ by its supporters, or ‘Stagnation Era’ by its critics. To obtain an analytic framing simultaneously more revealing and parsimonious, it is selected three cases of bilateral relations of representative nations of a very common categorization during the Cold War, the concept of the Three Worlds: the United States (First World, or the set of developed capitalist nations), the People’s Republic of China (Second World, or the group of the socialist-oriented countries), and India (Third World, or the group of the developing countries). Initially, we proceed to apply a multilevel approach in the field of Foreign Policy Analysis (FPA), by bearing in mind both the Robert Putnam’s ‘Two-Level Game’ and the so-called neoclassic realism. Two main objectives guide the making of this work: the first one, of empiric nature, consists of grasping the behavior of one of the two power poles during the Cold War; and second one is to critically contribute to the analytic debate within FPA. One of the major findings of this research is the delimitation of reorientation in Soviet foreign policy in the 1950’s, whose essence remained largely unchanged over the decades ahead, with alterations in strategic and programmatic plans in each of the three overmentioned interactions. In line with the multilevel approach, it contends that, to obtain a more accurate depiction of foreign policy, one must consider different analytical dimensions, such as the global division of power, as well as the domestic disputes, the predominant worldview within a ruling elite, and the dynamics of institutions where decisions are taken and implemented. This work is informed both by primary sources, especially as regards of economic and military figures, and secondary ones of Russian and foreign historiography.

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / As manifestações culturais e a cultura, em geral, têm adquirido relevância e protagonismo nas relações internacionais contemporâneas. Tal fenômeno possibilitou maior quantidade de pesquisas, teorias e trabalhos no campo das Relações Internacionais dedicadas a essa dimensão. Almeja-se com este trabalho contribuir com uma análise no plano das Relações Culturais Internacionais, enfocando o Ano do Brasil na França (2005) e o Ano da França no Brasil (2009). Através da análise destas duas temporadas culturais, analisa-se a densidade dessa profunda relação histórica entre Brasil e França, marcada pelos cálculos estratégicos de ambos os países. Esta pesquisa pretendeu mostrar que as temporadas culturais tornaram-se um dos modelos de diplomacia cultural adequados aos desafios da nova ordem global. Por isso, foi feito um estudo de caso sobre as temporadas franco-brasileiras de 2005 e 2009, através de pesquisa monográfica teórico-histórica; a qual demonstrou como as referidas temporadas culturais conciliam forças culturais em oposição na atualidade, ao mesmo tempo em que promoveram o intercâmbio cultural. / The cultural events and the culture, in general, have acquired relevance and leading role in the contemporary international relations. This phenomenon permitted largest amount of researches, theories, and works, on the field of International Relations, dedicated to this dimension. Aiming in this work to contribute with an analysis in terms of Cultural International Relations, it will be focus the Year of Brazil in France (2005) and the Year of France in Brazil (2009). Through this analysis of the two cultural seasons the density of this profound historical relation (between Brazil and France) marked by strategic calculations of both countries have been analyzed. The research intention was to show that cultural seasons have turned into one of the models of cultural diplomacy adequate to the challenges of the new global order. For that, it was done a case study on the French-Brazilian seasons of 2005 and 2009, through a monographic and theoretical-historical research, through which it was shown that the cultural seasons have been conciliating cultural seasons in opposition nowadays, at the same time it have been promoting the cultural exchange.