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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
11

Causal layered analysis enriching the innovation process

Kotze, H. A. 03 1900 (has links)
Thesis (MPhil)--Stellenbosch University, 2010. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This research report aims to show how futures studies or foresight techniques, especially causal layered analysis (CLA), can enrich the attempts of organisations to innovate. The study discusses the importance of innovation for organisations and shows that innovation is deeply rooted in the knowledge economy. The nature of innovation is explored as well as the different types and degrees of innovation. An integrated innovation model is proposed which is used to establish some of the key challenges which arise from the innovation process. The challenges are expanded to take into consideration those challenges which arise from the approach organisations take to innovation as well as some of the innovation challenges which arise from the underlying organisational culture. The nature of futures studies is discussed from the perspective of an approach and field of study for creating knowledge and facilitating understanding. This ability of futures studies is explored further to show how it can address some of the challenges which arise from innovation. The study further explores the ability of causal layered analysis, a foresight technique; not only to address some of the innovation challenges but to enrich the innovation process by providing depth and breadth in the analysis of the problem through creating an understanding of the deeply rooted drivers and viewing the problem from different perspectives, effectively expanding the solution set and creating a platform for identifying latent needs and opportunities. Causal layered analysis is applied to three of the top thirty innovations of the last three decades, testing the hypothesis that successful innovation transcends and addresses needs at the deeper layers. It is shown that innovations which are able to address needs in the deeper levels get embedded in our daily lives and as a result become more enduring. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie navorsings projek beoog om te wys dat toekomsstudies en die tegnieke in die studie veld, spesifiek “causal layered analysis”, waarde kan toevoeg tot die innoverings probeerslae van organisasies. Die studie bespreek die belangrikheid van innovering vir organisasies en wys dat innovasie diep gewortel is in die kennis ekonomie. Die aard van innovering word ondersoek sowel as die verskillende tipes en grade daarvan. ‘n Ge-integreerde innoverings model word voorgestel en word gebruik om van die belangrike uitdagings in die innovasie proses te identifiseer. Daar word uitgebrei op hierdie uitdagings deur in ag te neem die benadering wat organisasies neem tot innovering asook die uitdagings wat voortspruit uit die onderliggende kultuur in die organisasie. Die aard van toekomstudies word bespreek uit die oogpunt van die benadering van die studie veld om kennis te skep en begrip te bewerkstellig. Die vermoë van toekomstudies om die uitdagings wat deur innovasie onstaan word verder ondersoek. Die studie ondersoek ook die vermoë van “causal layered analysis”, as ‘n toekoms tegniek, nie net om die innoverings uitdagings te adresseer nie, maar ook deur die verryking van die innoverings proses waardeur begrip geskep word. Begrip volg deur die diepte en wydheid van die analise van die probleem, asook deur die probleem vanuit verskeie oogpunte te benader. Hierdeur word daar meer moontlike oplossings blootgelê en word daar geleentheid geskep om nuwe geleenthede te identifiseer. “Causal layered analysis” word ook toegepas op drie van die top dertig innovasies van die laaste drie dekades om die hipotese te toets dat suksesvolle innovasies, behoeftes in al die lae aanspreek, spesifiek in die diepliggende areas. Die studie wys dat innovasies wat behoeftes in die diepliggende areas aanspreek deel word van ons alledaagse lewe en sodoende meer langdurig word.
12

Design of a framework for implementing strategic foresight at South African state owned enterprises

Nyewe, Papomile Mphathi 03 1900 (has links)
Thesis (MPhil)--Stellenbosch University, 2011. / In many spheres of life, humanity is finally coming to terms with the fact that our world has changed beyond the limits of our industrial-era ways of thinking. Linear and reductionist approaches to strategy and problem-solving are no longer sufficient for dealing with the realities of our modern world, which are characterised by the certainty of change; not least of all due to technological change and environmental factors such as resource scarcity and global warming. Some of the changes that humanity has experienced include; • Uncertainty about the magnitude and direction of the changes; • Difficulty of visualising contexts and options in an increasingly complex environment, where many of the parts are interdependent, and where the knowledge requirements increasingly transcend traditional disciplines; • Serious and possibly irrevocable consequences of errors in decision-making; • The ability of humanity to adapt and respond to change. Living in sustainable harmony with itself and the biosphere requires that we use systems thinking to mediate between the need for action and the awareness of complexity. These aspects require that we adopt a continuous and adaptive mode of strategy and development, enabling us to shape a better future. As South Africa enters its sixteenth year of democracy, the challenges of unemployment, scarcity of critical skills, a poor education system, growing crime levels and perennial poverty, continue to confront both the state and civil society alike. This study seeks to map the South African government’s long-term and short-term planning frameworks that guide the planning processes and timeframes for all government departments. While the purpose is to determine the long-term planning methodologies and techniques of both Development Finance Institutions (DFIs) and State Owned Enterprises (SOEs), these are informed by the response to the national government planning frameworks, such as the Medium-Term Strategic Framework (MTSF) and the Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF). The National Planning Commission was established specifically to perform the long-term planning function of government. It is against this background that the researcher examines the long-term planning processes and methodologies of selected DFIs and SOEs, using the Environmental Scanning and Literature Review methodologies. Environmental scanning and literature review methodologies were used to gain a high-level understanding of the long-term planning processes of the national government. A literature review of current and previous long-term planning processes using scenario planning (by Eskom and the CSIR) and foresight (by the CSIR) have provided an indication that, although long-term planning is a desired goal, it is not widely practiced and where it is practiced the results and related impacts are not yet known. A survey of selected SOEs and DFIs was conducted to determine the nature and extent of long range planning undertaken by each of these bodies, as well as the methodologies that were used. The aim was to determine whether foresight tools such as systems thinking and/or scenario planning have been used in the past and what results have been achieved. Without this information, it would not be possible to identify the gaps that exist in the longterm planning frameworks of these entities. The results of the survey revealed that the concept of long-term planning using methodologies such as foresight, scenario planning and systems thinking does not enjoy wide awareness amongst the SOEs, who reported that they do not engage in long-term planning. The study concludes that a need exists for a formal well structured framework for the use of scenario planning and systems thinking as part of the foresight long-term planning methodology in South Africa’s state-owned enterprises. An ideal framework for the introduction and use of long-term planning methodologies is needed in order to seek an answer to the following question: what combination of thinking and planning tools, drawn from Foresight, Scenario Planning and systems thinking could be brought together to create and ideal framework for the introduction and use of long-term planning methodologies at state-owned-enterprises? The study proposes a Six Phase – Foresight and Scenario Planning Framework for longterm planning. This proposed new framework suggests the use of foresight tools such scenario planning and systems thinking. Exposure by the author to multiple foresight driven processes served to provide real life experiences of the potency of the use of these tools in combination during the different phases of the proposed framework. In using the proposed framework, executives at SOEs and DFIs should be able to cope with planning in an environment of uncertainty, while carrying the stakeholders along with them on the journey. The six phases of the process have, in the experience of the researcher, offered tangible benefits to a variety of institutions during the past three years. More than any other benefits, foresight loses its mystic and it becomes easy and accessible to everyone. Action planning, flowing from the foresight process becomes a genuine exercise that impacts on the short to medium term strategic planning taking into account the probable effects of emerging trends, driving forces and likely breakthroughs that leaders in SOEs and DFIs can bring about as they strive to create their preferred future.
13

Can the UN SMART Programme be Smarter? : an analysis of learning outcomes

Human, Christina 12 1900 (has links)
Thesis (MPhil)--Stellenbosch University, 2009. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This paper analyses the UN Senior Mission Administration and Resource Training (SMART) programme, a training course which was created to improve the management of UN peacekeeping mission resources and support functions and to improve the performance of managers in the UN Department of Field Support and Department of Peacekeeping. The history of the SMART programme and the context in whic h it was created is provided before evaluating the programme against current training and learning theory literature. The paper also examines the current and potential capacity of SMART to facilitate triple loop learning, or innovation, through the inclus ion of futures studies concepts, such as scenario-building, change and strategy management in the programme. Lastly, the study recommends that SMART learners be equipped with these futures-orientated planning tools to improve their work performance, facilitate triple loop learning and thus improve the overall organisational performance of the Department of Field Support. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie navorsingsprojek analiseer die Verenigde Nasies (VN) se SMART Program (Administrasie en Hulpbron Opleidingsprogram), wat ontwikkel is om die bestuur van hulpbronne en ondersteuningsfunksies in VN Vredesmissies asook die werkverrigting van bestuurders in die VN se Departement van Veldondersteuning en Departement Vredesinstandhouding te verbeter. 'n Historiese oorsig van die SMART program asook die konteks waarin die program ontwikkel is, word eers verskaf, voordat 'n literatuurstudie gedoen word van die huidige opleidings- en leerteorië. Die studie ondersoek verder die huidige vermoë van die SMART program om trippelring-leervermoë (of innovasie) te ontwikkel deur die insluiting van toekomsstudiekonsepte soos senario-ontwikkeling en veranderings- en strategiebestuur. Ten slotte word voorgestel dat deelnemers aan die program met toekomsgeörienteerde beplanningsgereedskap toegerus word om hulle met die uitvoering van hulle take te help en trippelring-leerontwikkeling te bewerkstellig, en sodoende die oorkoepelende organisatoriese werkverrigting in die Departement van Veldondersteuning te verbeter.
14

Corporate governance : future perspective in light of the 2008/09 global economic meltdown

Ncube, Bhekinkosi 12 1900 (has links)
Thesis (MPhil)--Stellenbosch University, 2010. / This futures studies research report uses the Six Pillars of Transformation by Inayatullah (2004) as the methodology to explore the future perspective corporate governance may take in light of the 2008/9 global economic meltdown. The problem here being to understand the corporate governance failures that led to the global economic crises and the influences these failures may have in the future of corporate governance. This research report was compiled through secondary research material. The focus of this research report is on corporate governance, in relation to business related activities in particular, as opposed to general governance and not necessarily from a South African perspective only. This is because the South African corporate governance framework, from a legal and principles point of view, is very linked to Anglo Saxon countries’ frameworks and also that the South African economy is globalised (Naidoo, 2009). The description of corporate governance, by Sir Adrian Cadbury of the UK Cadbury Report (1992), as “the balance between economic and social goals, and between individual and communal goals . . . the aim is to align as nearly as possible the interests of individuals, corporations and society” comprehensively describes corporate governance for the purposes of this research report. Of particular note to this description is the multiple stakeholder balance approach, which the South African King Reports subscribe to, for sustainability purposes among other reasons. The anticipation of the future of corporate governance, as the second pillar of futures transformation, is discussed by describing the related emerging issue analysis thereof. These issues include corporate governance convergence and diversity. However, there are significant signs in various parts of the world, including South Africa, and as Keasy, Thompson and Wright (2005) mentioned that show corporate governance convergence more than the increase of corporate governance diversity. The history of corporate governance change patterns, as the third pillar of futures transformation, are explored to bring into perspective the likely changes for exploration on establishing the future alternatives corporate governance systems may take in future. This is in light of the latest major event of the 2008/9 global economic crises. These patterns of history date back from the end of the 19th century through the great depression, the World War II period until the recent major corporate failures that happened worldwide. The future and nature of corporate governance is further deepened, as the fourth pillar of futures transformation, by applying the Causal Layered Analysis and the Four-Quadrant Map in the causes of the 2008/9 global economic meltdown by corporate governance failures. The creation of corporate governance future alternatives, as the fifth pillar of futures transformation, are explored by outlining the possible, probable, plausible and preferred futures of corporate governance from information provided by the referenced writers of this research report. The preferred and ideal corporate governance approach would be a balanced corporate governance approach that has optimally converged due to the impact by the 2008/9 global economic meltdown, globalized and market based. In the last pillar of futures transformation, transforming the future of corporate governance, the policy implications of the preferred and desired future of corporate governance, according to this research report will be outlined, notwithstanding the challenges to achieve this desired future. These policy changes are likely to be both from a self-regulatory and regulatory perspective.
15

The role of foresight in adaptive organising : coping with change and creating advantage.

Cobbledick, Michael 12 1900 (has links)
Thesis (MPhil))--Stellenbosch University, 2010. / It is broadly accepted that our post-modern society is characterised by unprecedented levels of change, coupled with increasing complexity and uncertainty. In this context, the ability to successfully anticipate and adapt to changing circumstances is crucial for an organisation‟s survival and prosperity. Long-standing traditional models of organising, managing and knowing, as well as many contemporary formulations, are found to be inadequate in dealing with the challenges of high-velocity change. This study conducts a conceptual review of the diverse literatures on organisational adaptation and foresight to, first, synthesise the essential characteristics of adaptive organising; and secondly, to determine whether and how foresight can be applied to improve the effectiveness of organisational adaptation. A model of adaptive organising is developed that describes how, by adopting an emergent strategy approach via processes of exploration and experimentation and by balancing change and preservation, firms can derive new advantages from volatility. Recognising the limitations of anticipatory foresight in fast-paced environments, a socially embedded foresight practice that links macroscopic thinking and microscopic action is proposed as an enabling infrastructure for emergent strategy. It describes how foresight provides context for broad-based action, the outcome of which keeps foresight refreshed with how reality is unfolding. Finally three foresight methods, visioning, scenarios and peripheral vision, are reviewed drawing links to adaptive organising from which three propositions are put forward for future research. These foresight practices are shown to produce shared understanding and direction which stimulates collective exploratory action, and encourage alternative perspectives and interpretations of the organisation‟s situation allowing strategic variety to flourish and new advantages to emerge.
16

A survey of strategy formulation practices in large financial services businesses in South Africa

Behr, Rolf Gregory 12 1900 (has links)
Thesis (MPhil)--Stellenbosch University, 2010. / The research undertaken in this paper explores the strategy formulation practices of large financial services organisations in South Africa. Following a review of academic sources, it was concluded that strategy formulation comprises three distinct but interdependent activities. The first is that of foresight development, followed by strategy development and finally strategic or business planning. In addition, a variety of approaches to stakeholder engagement are possible. A review of similar research identified primary research into foresight practices in Europe and the professional experiences of two South African chartered accountants of strategic or business planning. No research on strategy development was identified. Thus, the researcher chose to conduct primary research in the form of a survey to interrogate each of the strategic activities. This focused on the level of resourcing applied to each activity, the tools used, the time horizon adopted and the breadth of stakeholder engagement. A review of the South African financial services industry suggested that banking, short-term insurance and long-term insurance needed to be included in the sample. An analysis of the respective organisations‟ market share for most key products was completed. This produced a sample of twelve organisations which had a market share in excess of 10per cent as at 31 December 2009 with the exception of those selected based on total life insurance premiums, which were based on December 2008 data due to information availability. Of the twelve organisations identified 66per cent (or eight) responded to the survey which was conducted using an online survey tool. Three respondents chose to respond telephonically when contacted by the researcher. The respondents for the respective organisations were either senior managers, in several cases members of the executive team, or people involved with strategy formulation at a corporate or group level. In order to increase the response rate, the survey was conducted anonymously, thus limiting comparison been organisations and industry sectors. The result of the analysis highlighted two key dimensions on which organisations differed. The first is the time frame used. Only two organisations regularly look more than three years ahead. The second is that of stakeholder engagement. Half of the respondents are interactive and include employees in the strategy formulation process, while the other half is autocratic limiting strategy formulation activity to management and often senior management only. This lead the researcher to conclude that while a wide array of strategy formulation tools are applied, many South African financial services organisations have opportunity to improve their strategy formulation practice by being more inclusive and adopting a longer and more holistic approach to scanning and foresight as part of the foresight development activity.
17

Med en framtida demokrat som adressat : Föreställningar om framtid i svenska samhällskunskapsböcker 1992-2010

Nordmark, Jonas January 2015 (has links)
This dissertation is a critical study on conceptions of future in swedish social studies textbooks for primary secondary school, and a discussion on discourses of the young person as a future political subject. The main part of the thesis is a discourse analysis of textbooks published within the timeframe 1992 through 2010. The demarcation of the two decade timeframe stems from a critical discussion within educational research on political and educational discourses about individual and common future in recent years. I mainly draw my critical theoretical argument from a discussion on what in radical democratic theory is referred to as a post-political state within late liberal democracies. Much of the future oriented educational research is implicitly rooted within this discussion, where the possibility of understanding the young person as a future political subject to a great extent is scrutinized. The method through which the textbooks are read is discourse analysis, mainly inspired by deconstruction, focusing social and political logic within normative texts. My findings are that future in large parts of the textbooks is put forth as dependant on the single individual´s commitment to making the future democratic society possible through political engagement, but also her adaptation to an already well ordered democratic society. Commitment and adaptation take form in two, what I call, ontopolitical discourses about the young person as a future partaker of democratic society. The first discourse delineate the young person as partaker in an already initiated course onto a better common future. As an individual the young person is put forth as part of an overarching common shared temporal movement towards future for the society as a whole. Earlier books seem to suggest this temporalization of the common, to a higher extent than later. Later books suggest the idea of the young person as possible part to either a positive common future full of personal opportunities at hand, or a negative common future, shared by those without same life opportunities. This second discourse render threats towards the future democratic society, as such individuals without ability to fulfil their aspirations. Being unemployed at the outskirts of society both put a strain on the ordered society and also implies that those without means to take care of themselves might in fact become dangerous. Through French thinker Jacques Rancière I suggest that these implications should be understood as a view on future society where all are included, but some are included through defining them as excluded within society.
18

Future secondary schools for diversity : where are we now and where could we be? : a 'futures thinking' approach to planning for diversity and inclusion, informed by an investigation of the current over-representation of secondary aged students in special schools in England

Black, Alison Elizabeth January 2012 (has links)
In 2011, 65% of the 76,900 pupils aged between 5 and 16 in special schools in England were of secondary age. When this population is broken down further, a constant rise in pupil numbers is seen; from just under 3,500 pupils at age 5, to more than 10,000 at age 15, with a large leap in numbers between the ages 10 and 11. This thesis views these patterns as demonstrations of disproportionality and as indications that inclusion in mainstream secondary schools is not being achieved. The thesis fills a gap in the literature exemplified by the paucity of studies on this phenomenon. It is distinctive in not only exploring a problem and then suggesting ways of overcoming it, it also tests these suggestions. The thesis is in two parts, the first is a standard empirical enquiry, using a survey methodology, the second uses futures studies methodologies and evaluation techniques to create and develop a vignette of a future school that successfully includes those children currently placed in special schools. A critical realist perspective is adopted, acknowledging that explanations are contingent and influenced by personal experience and bias (at the level of researcher and participants). Hence a range of stakeholder views are sought, along with the involvement of groups of practitioners and experts in the refinement of a vignette of a future school. The thesis employs a mixed methods approach, in order to base findings on as many sources as possible. It also involves a futures thinking aspect, in the design of a preferable, transforming, normative image of a future education system. In part one explanations about why the phenomenon of over-representation occur are sought through a literature review, then a questionnaire of key stakeholders (those involved in school placement decisions). Factors that are commented on most frequently are school level factors and within child factors. These findings point to limitations of current models used to understand disability and special educational needs, the thesis posits that an extended multi-dimensional model is needed, and suggests a number of existing models that could be developed. In part two a vignette of a future school is created by considering how problems and issues raised in part one of the study could be circumvented. This vignette is evaluated by experts who have experiential and theoretical knowledge of the field of special educational needs and inclusion. The evaluation contributes to the further refinement of the vignette. This thesis highlights the unexplored phenomenon of secondary over-representation in special schools in England and presents an in-depth analysis of the reasons that stakeholders give to explain this over-representation. Uniquely, this analysis is then translated into an imaginary design of a possible future inclusive school, the evaluation of which in turn highlights some of the persistent issues about the purposes and design of schools in a diverse society.
19

Prospecção do futuro nas empresas: uma proposta de modelo para integração entre o estudo do futuro e a estratégia empresarial / On futures studies in organizations: a proposal of a model for the integration of futures studies and business strategy

Yoshida, Nelson Daishiro 30 March 2016 (has links)
Esta tese buscou estudar a integração entre a prospecção do futuro e projetos dentro do escopo da estratégia. Decisões envolvendo projetos no âmbito da estratégia das organizações são para horizontes de tempo de médio ou longo prazo. Nessa situação, gestores precisam lidar com incertezas de futuro, e para isso podem recorrer às metodologias de prospecção do futuro. O estudo do futuro é atividade complexa, pela abrangência de temas a serem considerados, contudo, é provável que gestores pratiquem essa atividade devido à responsabilidade assumida por suas decisões. A prática de metodologia prospectiva gera resultados, e estes podem contribuir nas decisões em projetos estratégicos. A literatura de estudos do futuro contém recomendações sobre como praticar metodologia prospectiva, porém aborda menos a utilização dos resultados de estudos prospectivos e a sua contribuição para a estratégia empresarial. Ela se concentra mais nos processos de desenvolvimento dos projetos de prospecção para se chegar aos resultados. Dessa forma, esta tese visou ao estudo da utilização dos resultados da prospecção nas decisões de projetos no âmbito da estratégia empresarial. Os fenômenos estudados envolvem a transição entre a prática da prospecção do futuro, a consequente disponibilidade de seus resultados e a contribuição dos mesmos nos processos de análise prospectiva para suporte a decisões. O objetivo geral da tese é a proposta de um modelo que contribua nessa transição. A metodologia utilizada foi mista - quantitativa e qualitativa - desenvolvida por meio de survey e entrevistas, e a abordagem utilizada foi exploratória e descritiva. Os resultados indicam haver limitações na integração entre prospecção do futuro e estratégia empresarial. Foi identificado que a prospecção do futuro é considerada importante pelos gestores participantes da pesquisa. Em contraste, a transição para a sua prática, passando pela disponibilidade de seus resultados, e a posterior utilização deles em processos de suporte à tomada de decisões em projetos estratégicos, apresenta limitações. Os resultados indicam que, apesar da importância da atividade de prospecção, gestores avaliam que ela é praticada em um nível mais baixo, e ao final a contribuição de seus resultados é avaliada em nível ainda mais baixo. Isso é mais evidente nas empresas de menor quantidade de funcionários, menor faturamento, de capital fechado ou limitado, sendo que nessas empresas a prospecção é para horizonte de tempo mais curto. Já gestores de empresas com maior quantidade de funcionários, maior faturamento e de capital aberto lidam melhor com a prospecção do futuro, sendo que estudam seus projetos estratégicos em horizonte de tempo mais longo. Observou-se que as principais limitações identificadas estão relacionadas com o conhecimento das metodologias de prospecção do futuro, e isso limita principalmente a identificação de temas importantes a serem estudados e monitorados acerca do futuro, configurando-se como lacunas de análise prospectiva ou pontos cegos. Por decorrência disso, a contribuição da prospecção na estratégia empresarial sofre limitações. Conclui-se, portanto, que a integração entre prospecção do futuro e a estratégia empresarial poderia ser facilitada por meio do uso de um modelo de suporte, voltado para: (1) reduzir a possibilidade de lacunas de análise prospectiva; e (2) suportar a avaliação: da prática da prospecção do futuro, do uso dos seus resultados nas decisões, e finalmente da aplicação da expertise sobre prospecção do futuro na empresa. Os resultados confirmam que o modelo proposto contribuiria na integração da prospecção do futuro com a estratégia empresarial. / This doctoral dissertation aimed to study the integration between futures studies and projects within the scope of strategy. Decision-making in projects related to the strategy of organizations involve medium to long term horizon. In such context, managers have to deal with uncertainties of future, and then they may apply futures studies methodologies. Studying the future is a complex activity, due to the broadness of topics involved; however, it is likely that managers do it because they take responsibility for their decisions. The practice of futures studies methodologies leads to results, and these results may be useful to support decisions in strategic projects. The research literature about futures studies shows recommendations on how to practice prospective methodology, but it barely touches the use of the results of futures studies methodologies and their contribution to strategy. It focuses on the development processes of studying the future through the application of methods. Thus, this doctoral dissertation is aimed to study the use of futures studies results in decisions of projects within the scope of corporate strategy. The phenomena studied involve the transition from the practice of futures studies methods, the consequent availability of results and their contribution in the prospective analysis processes for decision support. The overall objective of the research is the proposal of a model that would help in this transition. The research methodology was through mixed method - quantitative and qualitative - developed through survey and interviews, and the approach was exploratory and descriptive. The results indicate that there are limitations in the integration between futures studies and strategy. It was identified that futures studies are considered very important by the participants of the research. In contrast, the transition to its practice, passing through the availability of its results, and to later use of the results to support processes in decision-making has limitations. The results indicate that despite managers consider important to study the future, they assess the practice of futures studies in their companies at lower level, and the contribution of its results is also assessed at further lower level. This is most evident in companies with small number of employees, low revenues, limited companies, in which the strategic projects are analyzed to shorter time horizon. In contrast, managers of companies with high number of employees, high revenues and publicly traded companies are more able to practice futures studies methodologies, and their strategic projects analyses are for longer time horizon. The main constraints identified are related to the knowledge of the methodologies of futures studies, and this is mostly because of the limitation in identifying important issues to be analyzed and monitored about the future, which becomes, then, a gap of prospective analysis or a blind spot in the vision of the future. The consequence is that futures studies methodologies and its contributions for strategy has constraints. Therefore, the integration of futures studies and corporate strategy could benefit from applying a model to support it in two ways: (1) reducing the possibility of blind spots on relevant strategic issues about the future, and (2) supporting the assessment of: the practice of futures studies methods, the use of its results in decision-making and also the futures studies expertise application in the organization. The results confirm that.
20

Innovation Processes and Environmental Planning : Science and Technology Policies in a Regional Context

Larsen, Katarina January 2005 (has links)
The understanding of environmental change and how it is influenced by innovation processes and advances in science and technology is multifaceted given the inherent uncertainty of the pace and direction of technology change, but also given the limits to anticipate future environmental effects of new technology. The doctoral thesis is organised in two parts. The covering essay constitutes the first part and is aimed at introducing the scope of the research; outlining theoretical perspectives and central concepts and positioning the research to other research studies. Reprints of the six papers included in the thesis comprise the second part of the thesis. The first aim of this doctoral thesis is to contribute to an increased understanding of the conditions for environmental policy and planning through innovation, science policy and technological change. Particular attention is paid to the institutional frameworks for policy processes, public-private interactive policy and strategic planning with futures studies. The second aim is to explore and analyse approaches applied for assessing the output, impact and structure of science in the area of strategic environmental research. This includes an examination of research assessment criteria and an analysis of knowledge networks in strategic environmental research, characterised by socio-economic expectations of generating innovations that benefit the environment through the industrial application of science. Four types of environmental planning are studied using a combined qualitative and quantitative research approach. These are corporate environmental planning, public environmental planning, strategic long-term planning, and strategic science planning targeting advances in science and technology to attain environmental objectives. The findings of the study show that institutional frameworks of science and technology policy affecting environmental planning are found in organisational forms, such as science parks, but also in institutions understood as values and norms of the science system. With an increased focus on assessment of research as well as future technology, the findings of the study also contributes by examining approaches applied for assessing the output, structure and impact of research, using bibliometrics and social network analysis in the area of strategic environmental research. / QC 20101027

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