Thesis (MPhil)--Stellenbosch University, 2008. / Towards the end of 2007, South Africa started experiencing widespread rolling electricity blackouts as the electricity demand exceeded the supply from energy giant Eskom. The crisis reached its tipping point when industries, including Sasol, were requested to reduce their electricity consumption by 10%. The purpose of this research was to identify alternative futures for Sasol in the light of the current electricity crisis. The scenario process was used to develop the following independent scenarios for Sasol: • Fuel to the fire. The country is amidst an ongoing nationwide electricity crisis and Sasol is still dependent on Eskom for more than 50% of its electricity demand. The end result is reduced turnover, shortage of liquid fuels and a decrease in Sasol’s contribution to the economy. • Ignorance is bliss. This is a world where Sasol is independent of Eskom for electricity supply despite the country’s continuing electricity crisis. Independence is ideal but unfortunately it comes at a cost. It is about taking painful action in the near term to forestall even more painful consequences in the future. • Blessing in disguise. Sasol is dependent on Eskom for the majority of its electricity requirement. The reliability of electricity supply in South Africa recovered and there is an overall awareness regarding energy efficiency and a positive adoption of alternative energy technologies. • Icing on the cake. Sasol is completely independent of Eskom and Eskom managed to restore the integrity of electricity supply. The end result, Sasol can continue with its planned growth and expansion. In order for the scenarios to be useful for Sasol, it is necessary to incorporate them into the strategic agenda. Some considerations include the gradual replacement of traditional fossil fuels, carbon capture and sequestration, advanced coal electricity generation (clean coal technology), increasing the use of renewable energy sources and developing the hydrogen economy.

Thesis (MPhil)--Stellenbosch University, 2011. / This research document seeks to outline the future of older people in HIV/AIDS-prevalent South Africa. The research report examined literature which assisted the researcher in understanding how older people‘s lives and standard of living has evolved due to HIV/AIDS in South Africa. The research report was focused on providing answers to the following questions: i) What are the factors that need to be addressed now to ensure a favourable future for older people in HIV/Aids prevalent South Africa? ii) What are the institutions responsible for ensuring a favourable future for older people in HIV/AIDS prevalent South Africa? The questions will be focused on 2040, from 2010 to 2040. In order to address the abovementioned questions the researcher made use of scenario planning supported by the biomatrix theory approach and causal layered analysis. Firstly, through input from the literature review and scenario team interviews, analysis of drivers of change was conducted. This reviewed secondary literature that was sourced from reports, case studies, publications and others. The focus of this paper was based on older people, HIV/AIDS and the future. Factors including change in family structure, care and respect for older people, government social grant, participation in policy formulation, education levels, employment and poverty were identified as driving forces that have an impact on older people in HIV/AIDS prevalent South Africa. Secondly, Biomatrix theory was used to map the problems associated with the driving forces mentioned above. This mapping was also used to prioritise the level of impact on problems associated with the driving forces. Two driving forces with the highest impact and uncertainties were identified as care and respect for older people as well as participation in policy formulation. A scenario quadrant was also mapped. The latter lead to four scenarios: The silver queen bee, the red queen bee, the black queen bee, and lastly the golden queen bee. Possible ideals and strategies were discussed as findings with a focus on the two key drivers of change that lead to the four alternative futures. Lastly, summary and recommendations are discussed in the final chapter.

Thesis (MPhil)--Stellenbosch University, 2009. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: See full text for abstract. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Sien volteks vir opsomming.

Companies are pressured by dynamic markets and the increase of innovation speed, technology change and shortening of product life cycles. They need to attend to customer demands and ever-changing environmental conditions, policies and regulations set by governments and institutions in order to stay relevant on the market and be allowed to operate. Innovation has therefore become a must and the innovation processes are a central part of companies’ operations. Futures studies is presented as a systematic way of studying the future that can contribute to a better understanding of the needed direction of innovations. The aim of the study is to investigate how futures studies can be embodied in the innovation process of manufacturing companies in the industry of rail and road vehicles. The structure of an innovation process within the industry of rail and road vehicles is summarized to consist of three different phases: the fuzzy-front-end, the development and the maintenance. The innovation process is further divided by the components of the product and during the entire process there are decision points to evaluate the projects. The organizational aspects which are considered to have the most influence on the innovation process concern the company environment and internal knowledge sharing. Futures studies are moderately performed at different stages of the innovation process and levels of the organization, mainly at corporate level and in the fuzzy-front-end. The people involved in these activities are solely employees from the company in question and the main issue found regarding the activities of futures studies is that the results of the foresight are not communicated properly across the company. Two ways in which futures studies can be embodied in the innovation process are identified to create more high-quality ideas and to tune the product during the process according to the future market, with a third way ensuring alignment with corporate level.  A recommendation is presented consisting of a scenario workshop which enables for futures studies to be embodied in the innovation process of manufacturing companies. Activities and pointers for prior, during and after the workshop are presented. The results of the workshop will further be embodied in the innovation process in three different ways, in the beginning, alongside and as a basis for the corporate strategy.

This is a futures study based on the citizen initiative HS2020 in Hammarby Sjöstad, Stockholm. The initiative has the vision to “Renew a new city”, and further develop Hammarby Sjöstad’s environmental profile towards a sustainable development until 2020. The aim of this study is to explore the possibilities for HS2020 to also work with Collaborative Consumption, which involves the sharing of goods, services, and space, as a contributing factor to the sustainable development of Hammarby Sjöstad. This study uses an explorative scenario approach together with backcasting, a normative scenario approach to create future images of Hammarby Sjöstad in 2020. These images explore the possibilities for HS2020 to also work with Collaborative Consumption in six of their sub-projects. The futures images were generated based on three workshops with participants connected to HS2020’s work, and also on the literature study and the collected background information. The future images of Hammarby Sjöstad mediate how HS2020 could further develop the existing sub-projects, by focusing more on Collaborative Consumption. The solutions presented in the theory could be implemented in Hammarby Sjöstad. They could be for anyone, restricted to members, within an apartment building or a small group of people that could also own and maintain the sharing solution. Other important actors are private companies, the municipality and non-profit organization that could initiate, own and maintain these sharing solutions. The future images show that they could contribute to increased sustainability in different ways.

This study explores how futures studies could engage with critical feminist perspectives in an intrinsic manner and what feminist futures might mean. The study brings attention to the less discussed subject of epistemological basis in futures studies. Literature study and semi-structured interviews with practitioners and researchers working with feminist approaches in the fields related to futures development was deployed. I’ve analyzed Wendell Bell’s discussion on epistemological foundation of futures studies from feminist epistemological perspective, and have suggested the potential of feminist epistemology of situated knowledges and partial objectivity for futures studies. Based on the findings from the semi-structured interviews, an alternative feminist scenario set in Swedish society in the year of 2050 in the format of a fiction is presented with the aim to provide a detailed and situated narrative of political and daily lives in feminist futures. The feminist futures scenario should not be understood as the singular feminist future suggested for implementation. The intention is to demonstrate how the visionary dimensions of feminist studies could be articulated in various forms of futures studies, and to open up space for rich debates on envisioning feminist futures. / Denna studie utforskar hur framtidsstudier skulle kunna anta ett kritiskt feministiskt perspektiv på ett djuplodande sätt och vad feministiska framtider skulle kunna innebära. Litteraturstudier och semistrukturerade intervjuer med utövare och forskare som arbetar med feministiska tillvägagångssätt inom fält relaterade till framtidsutveckling har genomförts. Jag har analyserat Wendell Bells diskussion om den epistemologiska grunden för framtidsstudier utifrån ett feministiskt epistemologiskt perspektiv, och har föreslagit feministisk epistemologi om situerad kunskap och partiell objektivitet som potentiell epistemologi för framtidsstudier. Utifrån fynden i de semistrukturerade intervjuerna presenteras ett alternativt feministiskt scenario för ett svenskt samhälle år 2050 i ett fiktivt format med syftet att ge ett detaljerat och situerat narrativ om det politiska och dagliga livet inom feministiska framtider. Det feministiska framtidsscenariot bör inte läsas som den enda feministiska framtiden avsedd för implementering. Avsikten är att visa hur feministiska studiers visionära dimensioner kan uttryckas på olika sätt i framtidsstudier och ge utrymme för en bred debatt om hur feministiska framtider kan gestaltas.

Frihet är ett viktigt tema under nittonhundratalet, kanske särskilt decennierna omkring 1970 med allt vad den tiden innehåller av frigörelsekamp, uppror mot gamla traditioner, individualism och kollektivism. Den här avhandlingen spårar det temat genom tre genrer i den svenska litteraturen, från sextiotalet och framåt: den självbiografiska barndomsskildringen, reseskildringen och science fiction-romanen. De olika genrerna erbjuder olika möjligheter för en författare att diskutera och gestalta frihetstemat, explicit och implicit. Skilda narratologiska utgångspunkter skapar skilda förutsättningar. Genomgående frågeställningar är vilka hinder som finns för att friheten ska kunna uppnås, vilka utvägar mot friheten som ändå existerar och vilka innebörder frihetsbegreppet ges. Avslutningsvis diskuteras resultaten i förhållande till de skilda genrevillkoren men även till det som texterna har gemensamt, exempelvis utopiska drag, mötet med det obekanta och främmande, sökandet efter en subjektiv sanning eller 1968-årens tidsanda. På så sätt kan något sägas om den sköna litteraturens särart jämfört med andra slags texter. / Freedom is an important theme of the twentieth century, perhaps particularly during the decades around 1970, that time of struggle for liberation, the rebellion against the old ways, of individualism and collectivism. This thesis traces that theme through three genres of Swedish literature, from the sixties onwards: the autobiographical childhood novel, the travelogue and the science fiction novel. The different genres offer different possibilities for an author to discuss and depict the theme of freedom, explicitly and implicitly. Different narratological starting points create different conditions. Some returning issues are which restrictions on, opportunities for and meanings of freedom are visible in the texts. Finally, the results are discussed in relation to the different conventions of genre but also in relation to what the texts have in common, such as features of utopia, the encounter with the unfamiliar and strange, the search for a subjective truth or the zeitgeist of the year 1968. In that way, something can be said about the specific nature of fictive or partly fictive texts compared to other kinds of prose.

This report presents a case study on the Water and Sewage (abbreviated as WS in the following) system of Stockholm, which is faced with several challenges over the coming decades. The purpose is to explore the current and future threats and challenges that can have an impact on the WS system, with the aim of identifying a sustainable and resilient way of handling potential issues and incorporating a wider perspective when planning for a continued water and sewage infrastructure of sufficient capacity and quality. The study asks what the current and potential future challenges for the Stockholm WS system are, what is required to enable a sustainable and resilient WS system in a long-term perspective, which actors are involved or need to be involved beyond Stockholm Water, to provide Stockholm with a resilient and sustainable WS system, and what would be required for efficient governance? A content analysis of literature was made in order to develop three possible future scenarios, each with its own set of challenges. The scenarios were discussed with several interviewees from the WS-sector. The information provided during the interviews was used in a resilience analysis, based on the framework developed by the Resilience Alliance Workbook for Practitioners. A discussion follows in relation to the connected theoretical concepts of futures studies, resilience theory, governance and sustainability. The findings in this study suggests that the main challenges facing the WS system are primarily climate change and population increase. The WS system has to expand to support a growing population, as well as be adapted to cope with the consequences of climate change. Also pulse disturbances, such as sabotage and bio-terrorist attacks, were discussed and constitute a worry to which there is less preparedness. Further, a different challenge was found in the difficulties in planning for this required expansion and development where there is a lack of support, funding, communication and division of responsibilities. In order to retain a WS system that is able to provide high quality water services of sufficient quantity, communication and coordination between actors need to improve, and someone has to take a lead in continued work to ensure that all actors and stakeholders move in the same direction. Long-term planning is required on all parts, and there is a need to make decisions that will enable a sustained water and sewage structure in the long run. It is also required that water is made a priority; that water and sewage related issues are allowed more space in the municipal planning process and are discussed at a much earlier stage. Further, all municipalities will face challenges that concerns the WS system, leading to an increasing requirement of a more extensive regional cooperation, where planning and development occurs across municipal borders, focusing on watershed- and drainage areas. This study focuses on specified resilience, which means that only a limited number of challenges and events that could affect the WS system have been studied. Further studies are encouraged to determine the general resilience of the system, and provide a more detailed and comprehensive assessment.

In 2015 the 17 Sustainable Development Goals were adopted by 193 member states of the United Nations. The SDGs are highly ambitious and their underlying processes are interconnected by causal relationships. Work towards fulfilling them therefore requires considering how solutions for one goal will impacts others. In this study target-oriented backcasting is applied to examine set goals in the future, as well as to determine the current state and trends of development. This is done in an effort to determine conflicts between targets and resource limitations of future development. The findings suggest that the current paradigm of giving GDP growth highest societal priority, leads to a causal relationship where development occurs at the expense of sustainability at the global level. In order to overcome this, the fulfilment of the SDGs has to be given higher priority than the size and growth rate of the GDP. / Under 2015 antogs de 17 globala hållbarhetsmålen av 193 medlemsstater i Förenta Nationerna. Målen är väldigt ambitiösa och deras underliggande processer sammanlänkar dem via orsakssamband. Arbetet med att uppfylla målen kräver därför att hänsyn tas till hur tänkta lösningar till ett mål i sin tur påverkar de övriga. I den här studien tillämpas target-oriented backcasting för att undersöka de uppsatta framtida målen, samt hur utvecklingen i dagsläget förhåller sig till dessa. Detta görs som ett försök att identifiera konflikter mellan de uppsatta målen, samt mot den begränsade mängden naturresurser som finns tillgänglig för framtida utveckling. Resultaten tyder på att under det rådande paradigmet där BNP tillväxt ges högsta prioritet i samhället, leder detta till ett orsakssamband där samhällsutveckling sker på bekostnad av långsiktig hållbarhet på global nivå. För att kunna komma runt detta krävs att uppfyllandet av de globala hållbarhetsmålen prioriteras över ekonomins storlek och tillväxt avseende BNP.

Fulfilling climate targets requires ambitious changes. The building sector is a large contributor to emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG), but also offers opportunities for climate change impact reductions. This thesis aims at supporting strategic decisions to reach climate change mitigation targets in the building sector, based on knowledge about what factors contribute significantly to climate impact from buildings in a life cycle perspective and how practitioners can influence these factors. More specifically, a first point of investigation concerns what aspects play a key importance in buildings’ climate impact, and what climate change mitigation strategies for the building sector should focus on. A quantitative analysis of backcasting scenarios for 2050 was performed using a spreadsheet model to estimate GHG emissions for the building sector. The parameters were adjusted to ensure that a GHG emission quota was reached in every scenario. This provided an illustration of four very different ways the building sector could contribute to the fulfillment of a global climate change mitigation target. The results were used to discuss what aspects of buildings were particularly important for target fulfillment. These aspects include a low-carbon energy mix, a reduction of GHG emissions from construction materials and an optimized use of space. A second point of investigation concerns how municipalities can influence practices through the use of environmental requirements in construction, in particular requirements based on a life cycle approach. A survey of Swedish municipalities was used to assess their current practices and knowledge level regarding mitigating climate change impact from construction, as well as the influence of a municipality’s size on these practices. It was followed up by semi-structured interviews investigating barriers to the use of environmental requirements in construction. Barriers were identified regarding in-house skills, access to data, resources, ambiguities regarding the law and guidance from national authorities. A stepwise strategy was suggested to overcome these barriers and successfully implement environmental requirements. Therefore, the thesis as a whole provides insight on how municipalities could use environmental requirements in construction to influence current practices in the building sector, so that the changes needed to fulfill the 1.5℃ target are implemented. / <p>QC 20190218</p>