Urban greenbelts are considered a key instrument for shaping sustainable urban growth and protecting the environment in a large number of cities in the world. In most cities, there is a widely shared belief that urban greenbelts are beneficial to the natural environment. By contrast, there is little understanding of the underlying economic impacts of greenbelts and other green space configurations in fast growing cities. The unprecedented rate and scale of urbanisation in the emerging economies has brought the role of greenbelts into an even sharper focus. In cities within these fast growing economies, the urban population is expected to double in the coming decades, which means that greenbelts are under great pressures to adapt to the large forthcoming growth. Few existing urban models are capable of addressing the dynamic nature of the urban transformations and predicting the impacts of urban greenbelts in the developing world. This prompts us to develop a new modelling method that is capable of assessing the impacts of different configurations, scales and locations of green spaces. We then use it to examine alternative futures to the greenbelt through a case study of Greater Beijing. The method we developed is a new variant in the land use-transport interaction (LUTI) model family. This model is capable of addressing the non-equilibrium nature of urban land use and transport development and the equilibrium nature of the day-to-day adaptations made by businesses and citizens. This LUTI model aims to answer the following questions: what are the short-term and long-term economic impacts of a greenbelt on a fast growing city? Which alternative green space configuration performs better in terms of economic well-being and travel costs? Where and how much should the greenbelt land be progressively reshaped or released as the city grows? The new LUTI model is calibrated and validated using data collected for 1990, 2000 and 2010 for Greater Beijing, The model is first tested retrospectively through revisiting the past greenbelt policies in Beijing from 1990 to 2010. Then the impacts of different future green space configurations from 2010 to 2030 are predicted and assessed through quantifying economic costs/benefits and travel costs for socio-economic groups. The model results suggest that under rapid transformative urban change, the configuration, scale and location of a greenbelt have a significant impact on a city’s economic efficiency. Such impacts will transcend the greenbelt boundary, and even the boundary of Beijing Municipality, onto the entire city region. A narrow greenbelt launched in the early age of urban expansion could lead to spatial mismatch of residents and jobs. A wide and strictly controlled ring-shaped greenbelt is not the highest performing intervention either, in terms of economic well-being. The green-wedges configuration is a remedial policy that balances the economic efficiency and environmental benefits. Intensive development around metro/rail stations in the designated greenbelt could reduce spatial costs and promote sustainable travel modes. This implies that a careful siting of new development within existing designations of the greenbelt can be beneficial in terms of economic well-being and sustainable transport.

Le vieillissement démographique en France constitue un sujet de préoccupation majeure et fait l'objet de plusieurs recherches du point de vue économique. La plupart des études mettent en évidence les effets négatifs du vieillissement sur l'économie française notamment sur les comptes de la protection sociale et le marché du travail. Récemment une nouvelle littérature relative au vieillissement émerge. Celle-ci cherche à savoir et à montrer en quoi le vieillissement peut être une opportunité pour l'économie. Cette thèse s'inscrit dans cette littérature. Elle cherche à répondre à la question suivante : Est-ce que le vieillissement peut être une opportunité pour l'économie française ? Pour répondre à cette question, la thèse explore les pistes de l'épargne et de la consommation en insistant sur la partie de la consommation. La thèse est articulée en cinq chapitres. Le chapitre 1 décrit les causes du vieillissement démographique en France et dresse un état des lieux des études qui portent sur l'effet de ce phénomène sur l'économie française. Le chapitre 2 analyse l'évolution du revenu, du niveau de consommation et du taux d'épargne au cours du cycle de vie et selon les générations afin d'appréhender l'évolution la consommation et du taux d'épargne agrégés dans une société vieillissante et avec le renouvellement des générations. Ces résultats permettent également de comparer le niveau de vie des classes d'âge et des différentes générations. Le chapitre 3 se focalise sur l'évolution de la structure de consommation selon l'âge, les générations et suite à une modification du revenu du ménage. Le chapitre 4 part du constat de la modification de la structure de consommation au cours du temps, la différence de la structure de consommation entre les ménages d'âge actif et les seniors pour estimer les échelles d'équivalence de 1979 à 2010, des seniors et des ménages d'âge actif. Ces échelles permettent de comparer le niveau de vie des seniors et des ménages d'âge actif en tenant compte des économies d'échelles réalisées au sein des différents ménages. Enfin le chapitre 5 utilise un modèle d'équilibre général pour quantifier l'effet du vieillissement sur la structure de consommation, productive et de l'emploi. / The ageing population in France is a subject of major concern and has been the subject of several studies from the economical perspectives. Most of studies highlight the negative effects of aging on the French economy, particularly on social protection accounts, the labor market. Recently a new literature on ageing emerges. It seeks to know and show how ageing can be an opportunity for the economy. This thesis is part of this literature. It seeks to answer the following question: Is Ageing can be an opportunity for the French economy? To answer to this question, the thesis explores the tracks of savings and consumption insisting on the consumption. The thesis is organized in five chapters. Chapter 1 describes the causes of ageing in France and provides an overview of studies covers the effect of this phenomenon on the French economy. Chapter 2 analyzes the evolution of income, consumption levels, and savings rates over the life cycle and according to the generations, to understand the evolution of aggregate consumption and aggregate savings rate in a society that's facing ageing and the renewal generations. These results also allow us to compare standards of living of age groups and different generations. Chapter 3 focuses on the evolution of consumption structure by age, generations. It provides also information about evolution of consumption structure when the household income changes. Chapter 4 began from the observation of the change in structure consumption over time, the difference in consumption structure between working-age households and seniors to estimate equivalence scales from 1979 to 2010, seniors and working-age households. These scales are used to compare the standards of living of seniors and working-age households, taking into account economies of scale achieved within different households. Finally Chapter 5 uses a general equilibrium model to quantify the effect of aging on the structure of consumption, productive and employment.

L'appel croissant à la mise en œuvre d'une politique climatique ambitieuse et globale devrait détério-rer les perspectives économiques des pays dépendants du pétrole. Cette thèse étudie les impacts économiques de cette transition bas-carbone ainsi que les stratégies d'atténuation possibles pour le premier exportateur de pétrole: le Royaume d'Arabie Saoudite (AS). Nous proposons une applica-tion utilisant un modèle intégré économie-énergie-environnement qui prend en compte les spécifici-tés de l’économie saoudienne comme l’ancrage de son taux de change ou encore les prix d’énergies administrés.Premièrement, en utilisant une représentation agrégée de l’économie saoudienne, nous montrons qu’un prix du pétrole plus faible résultant de la transition bas-carbone mondiale résulte en un taux de croissance marginalement bas, des excédents commerciaux significativement réduits et à un chô-mage plus élevé. Nous analysons la portée des outils dont dispose l’AS pour atténuer les impacts des politiques climatiques sur son économie. Nous estimons que l'alignement des prix de l'énergie saou-diens sur les références internationales ainsi que l’augmentation des gains d'efficacité énergétique fournissent à l’AS des sources de revenus supplémentaires. Ce cadre de modélisation permet de tes-ter des scénarios prospectifs tout en contrôlant leurs spécifications macroéconomiques.Ensuite, nous mettons en perspective ces spécifications dans un cadre multisectoriel afin d'étudier les stratégies de diversification émanant des contributions prévues déterminées au niveau national (INDC) ainsi que son programme stratégique Vision 2030. Nous concluons que la diversification économique dans les secteurs à faible intensité énergétique (industrie manufacturière, tourisme et services financiers) en augmentant les exportations et la substitution des importations, en plus de réformer l'impôt sur les sociétés offre une perspective positive par rapport à une expansion continue des industries à forte intensité énergétique (minéraux, pétrochimie et ciment). En effet, nous mon-trons que la diversification dans les secteurs à faible intensité énergétique génère une croissance plus forte et un chômage plus faible. En outre, dans le cadre de ce scénario de diversification écono-mique, l’AS dépasse ses engagements climatiques en termes de réduction des émissions de CO2. Néanmoins, l’expansion des secteurs à forte intensité énergétique résulte en une meilleure perspec-tive de la dette publique puisque le gouvernement tire des revenus plus élevés de ses participations dans les industries lourdes. Enfin, nous concluons que dans nos deux scénarios, l’AS n’atteint que partiellement ses ambitions de transition vers une économie moins dépendante du pétrole dans le cadre du programme Vision 2030, ce qui suggère que de nouvelles réformes doivent être envisagées.Cette thèse contribue à la littérature sur l’implémentation d’une politique climatique et ses consé-quences économiques pour les pays exportateurs pétrole. Notre travail fournit des estimations sur les réformes économiques à entreprendre comme stratégies d'atténuation et pourrait donc être adapté pour couvrir d'autres pays et sources d’énergie. / The increasing call for implementing a global and ambitious climate policy is expected to deteriorate economic outlook of oil-dependent countries. Our research work investigates the impact of this global low-carbon transition and the potential mitigation strategies for the largest oil exporter: The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). We propose an application using an integrated economy-energy-environment modelling framework taking into account salient features of the Saudi economy such as the currency peg and the regulated domestic energy prices.First, using an aggregated representation of the KSA economy, we show that a weaker oil price re-sulting from the global low-carbon transition is associated with a marginally lower growth, large trade surplus accumulation loss, and higher unemployment for the KSA. We analyse what scope the KSA has to mitigate climate policy impacts. We reveal that aligning domestic energy prices with international references and achieving energy efficiency gains increases economic efficiency while improving public budget prospects. This modelling framework allows to investigate scenarios while controlling the modelling macroeconomic specifications.We refine these outlooks in a mulstisector framework that further allows investigating diversifica-tion opportunities within the Saudi Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) and its Vision 2030 program. We conclude that economic diversification into non energy-intensive sectors (manufacture, tourism, and financial services) through increasing exports and import substitution, in addition to targeting fiscal adjustments of the corporate tax, provide a positive outlook compared with a continuous expansion of energy-intensive activities (minerals, petrochemical, and cement). Indeed, we show that diversification in non-energy intensive sector generates higher growth, and lower unemployment. In addition, under our designed economic diversification plan, the KSA ex-ceeds its climate pledges in terms of targeted CO2 abatement. Nevertheless, the continuous expan-sion of energy-intensive industries is associated with a better outlook for the public debt since the government derives higher revenues from its participation in energy-intensive industries. Finally, we conclude that in our two scenarios, the KSA only partially succeeds in its transition toward a less oil-dependent economy as part of the Vision 2030 program, suggesting that further reforms are to be considered.This thesis contributes to the literature on climate policy implementation and associated economic consequences for fossil-fuel exporters. It provides insights on economic reforms as mitigation strate-gies and could be thus adapted to cover additional countries and fuels.

No description available.

L’objectif de cette thèse consiste à élaborer un modèle d’équilibre général calculable adapté à l’analyse de la politique de soutien au biodiesel en France. Le gouvernement français a décidé récemment de supprimer l’exonération partielle de TICPE qui était jusqu’à présent la principale aide aux biocarburants de première génération. Cette mesure pourrait compromettre l’avenir de ce secteur en l’absence d’un nouveau système d’incitations. Notre modèle vise d’une part à mesurer les conséquences de ce changement réglementaire sur les différentes activités économiques; et d’autre part à évaluer les impacts d’un dispositif alternatif de soutien au biodiesel fondé sur un relèvement de la fiscalité sur le gazole. L’étude tient compte de la contribution des fluctuations du prix du pétrole à cet objectif. La matrice de comptabilité sociale servant de base empirique au modèle est fondée sur l’année de référence 2009. Elle comprend 3 facteurs de production, et 17 biens et secteurs d’activité. La désagrégation des secteurs agricoles et agroalimentaires fait apparaître la chaîne de production du biodiesel de manière détaillée. Le modèle intègre également des spécifications permettant de représenter le rôle des coproduits du biodiesel et les changements d’affectation des sols. Les résultats des simulations suggèrent que l’objectif d’incorporation de 10% à l’horizon 2020 requis par la directive européenne de 2009 pourrait être atteint par un relèvement de la TICPE sur le gazole à un niveau comparable à celui en vigueur sur le carburant essence. Cependant, les effets récessifs observés sur un certain nombre de variables conduisent à tempérer l’opportunité d’adopter une telle mesure. / The objective of this thesis is to build a computable general equilibrium model for the analysis of the public support policy to biodiesel in France. The French government has recently decided to remove the partial exemption from the excise tax on fuels that was until now the main support instrument to promote first-generation biofuels. This modification could affect the profitability of the biofuels’ and connected activities. In this context, our model aims on the one hand to quantifies the consequences of this policy change throughout the national economy; on the other hand, it assesses the impacts of an alternative support scheme based on higher taxes on conventional diesel. The study also takes into account the influence of oil price fluctuations in the analysis. The social accounting matrix (SAM) used as empirical basis is built on the 2009 reference year. It includes three production factors, and seventeen goods and activity sectors. The disaggregation of agricultural and agribusiness sectors emphasizes the whole biodiesel production chain. Energy substitution is reflected through multi-stages nested production and consumption structures. In line with recent studies, the model also specifies the role of biodiesel by-products in the livestock sector, and analyses the land use changes. Different scenarios are implemented to isolate the effects of changes in the support system. Results of simulations suggest that the 10% penetration rate targeted by the 2009 European directive by 2020 could be reached with taxes on diesel as high as on gasoline. However, recessive impacts observed in many sectors mitigate the opportunity to adopt such an alternative support policy.

Dans un contexte de croissance effrénée de la demande mondiale d'énergie et de pression environnementale pour lutter contre le réchauffement climatique, cette thèse étudie une des technologies envisagées pour réduire les émissions de dioxyde de carbone (CO2) : la capture et le stockage géologique du carbone (CSC). Nous étudions principalement l’application de cette technologie à la production des bioénergies (BCSC) car ce procédé permet d’épurer l’atmosphère tout en fournissant un substitut énergétique non polluant aux énergies fossiles. La première partie de ce travail analyse le potentiel économique et environnemental de la technologie de BCSC. Tout d'abord, une évaluation économique et environnementale de la BCSC dans le secteur de la production de bioéthanol en France est conduite.Ensuite, grâce à un modèle bottom-up d’optimisation TIAM-FR, nous étudions le potentiel global et régional de cette technologie dans le secteur de l'électricité. Enfin, les incitations économiques à mettre en place pour assurer son développement sont mises en évidences. Dans la deuxième partie, un modèle d'équilibre général calculable est utilisé pour évaluer les politiques environnementales. Nous construisons le modèle théorique en introduisant les technologies de CSC et de BCSC ainsi qu’une large variété d’instruments économiques. Le modèle est ensuite calibré pour comparer l’efficacité économique des instruments de politique environnementale à un niveau mondial et à un niveau français. / In a context of unbridled growth of global energy demand and environmental pressure in the fight againstglobal warming, this thesis studies one of the proposed technologies to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2)emissions: carbon capture and geological storage (CCS). We therefore consider the application of thistechnology to the production of bioenergies (BCCS) because this technology allows purifying theatmosphere while providing a clean energy alternative to fossil fuels. The first part of this work analyzesthe economic and environmental potential of BCCS. First, an economic and environmental assessment ofBCCS in the bioethanol production in France is conducted. Then, using the bottom-up optimization modelTIAM-FR, we study the global and regional potential of this technology in the electricity sector. Finally,the economic incentives that need to be provided to ensure BCCS deployment are highlighted. In thesecond part, a general equilibrium model is used to evaluate environmental policies. We construct thetheoretical model by introducing the CCS and BCCS as well as a wide range of economic instruments.The model is then calibrated to compare the effectiveness of environmental policy instruments at a globallevel and at a French level.

Près de deux décennies, après la libéralisation de l’économie tunisienne, les disparités régionales se sont fortement accentuées. Les amples écarts de développement entre les régions du littoral et de l’intérieur sont révélateurs d’une grande hétérogénéité en termes de niveaux de revenus, de croissance, de chômage, de répartition entre activités à forte et à faible productivités et de pauvreté. Si les régions du littoral font partie de l’axe de compétitivité et constituent le centre des branches phares de l’industrie tunisienne, les autres régions de l’intérieur disposent de moins de compétences stratégiques et affichent des performances moyennes, voire même faibles. Aucun processus de convergence régionale n’est enclenché. L’objet de la thèse est de quantifier et d’appréhender les impacts macroéconomiques et microéconomiques de sept réformes de politiques économiques susceptibles de réduire les disparités régionales, dans le cadre d’une approche macro-micro. Approche qui conduit inévitablement à privilégier un cadre d’analyse qui se compose de deux modèles reliés: un modèle d’équilibre général dynamique et multirégional et un modèle de micro simulation. L’implémentation de ces deux modèles a permis de réaliser un exercice de projection et un autre de simulation. Le premier exercice a étudié l’évolution future de l’économie tunisienne, en absence de toutes réformes économiques et/ou choc exogène. Les résultats montrent que le clivage littoral-intérieur devrait s’accentuer si des mesures de correction ne sont pas mises en œuvre. Les résultats de simulation suggèrent qu’une politique de libéralisation commerciale bénéficie plus aux régions du littoral. Pour stimuler la croissance des régions de l’intérieur, il est préférable d’entreprendre des politiques de discrimination positive qui visent à augmenter leurs niveaux d’investissements public et surtout privé. Par ailleurs, la réduction de l’écart de performance économique entre le littoral et l’intérieur du pays ne peut se faire rapidement qu’au moyen d’un changement technologique important dans les régions de l’intérieur. Tous les scénarios envisagés dans ce travail rejettent la nécessité d’un arbitrage entre croissance et pauvreté régionales et confirment donc les possibilités d’une croissance pro-pauvre. / Almost two decades after the liberalization of the Tunisian economy, regional disparities have been accentuated severely and are expected to grow further. The existing gap between the coastal regions and those inland is showing high inequality in terms of levels of income, growth, unemployment, productivity and poverty. The industry in the littoral regions remains the most competitive leading the Tunisian industry, while other regions in the interior lag behind with fewer strategic competences and skills and medium or even low performance. Hence, the process of regional convergence has been broken rather than achieved. The purpose of this research is to assess and quantify the macroeconomic and microeconomic impacts of seven economic policies which aiming to reduce regional disparities in Tunisia. For that purpose, we will use a micro-macro based approach with two interconnected models: A multiregional dynamic general-equilibrium model and a micro-simulation model. The implementation of these two models has enabled a projection exercise and simulation one. The first exercise studied the future evolution of the Tunisian economy in its national and regional dimensions without any economic and / or exogenous shock reforms. The results show that the littoral-internal cleavage is expected to increase if corrective measures will not be implemented. Simulation results show that trade liberalization policy benefits more to coastal regions. However, to stimulate growth performance on behalf of inland regions, positive discrimination action policies, as public and especially private investment increase, will be necessary. Moreover, reducing the economic gap performance between the coast and the interior can be done quickly through a major technological change for regions in the interior. All scenarios in this study reject the possibility of trade-off between growth and regional poverty and thus confirm the potential for pro-poor growth.

Minerals are important natural resources and their development is a historically old, yet new, idea for creating economic prosperity in developing countries. Various researchers have evolved several arguments regarding the impact of mineral resources on development and growth, but they have yet to furnish a practical method of economic evaluation of mineral resources development. This thesis focuses on the economic impact of mineral resource development in a small developing country in the South Pacific Region, namely Fiji. Fiji has expectations and faces challenges in its natural resources development. The Namosi project, a large copper-gold mine development, has been proposed and is under consideration by the Fijian government, who is deliberating on whether mining resources should be developed as a means to add to its prosperity and economic growth or alternatively conserved from the standpoint of the environment and stability. In this study, four significant issues are analyzed viz.: 1) Whether the Namosi mine development project gives a positive net private return. 2) Whether the predicted amount of revenue flowing to the Fijian government from the Namosi mine development exceeds the estimated external cost (in this case, environmental cost) from its development. 3) The impacts of the project on various levels of the Fijian economy, and whether the mine development in Fiji results in an enclave industry; and whether mining has strong or weak backward and forward production linkages with the rest of the Fijian economy. 4) Whether “Dutch disease” will ensue from mining development in Fiji and its level of severity. Regarding issue 1) above, Private Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) is conducted by applying the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method to evaluate the Namosi mining project based on financial projections. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis is conducted in order to allow for possible variations in copper and gold prices. This analysis indicates that given the anticipated metal prices, private returns from this mining development are likely to be positive. Indeed, the current high metal prices would lead to high private returns. Regarding issue 2) above, Social Cost-Benefit Analyses are attempted. Under the given circumstances, the results show that the benefits of the mine project, as a whole for its 29-year life, substantially outweigh the environmental costs of the project to Fiji. However, due to a lack of available data on the economic magnitude of environmental spillovers, only estimates of environmental costs of the Namosi mining development could be made. Regarding issue 3) above, Input-Output model analysis is performed. Fiji’s total output (without production from the Namosi mine) is found to be F$5,529.917 million. It is estimated that the Namosi project will increase the output of Fiji directly by F$465.574 million (which includes the production inducement effect) and will result in an increase of F$543.788 million in overall Fijian output (GDP). This increase will also be followed by an increased output of about F$10-30 million in related industries, such as in the commerce, transport, and insurance sectors. Based on this Input-Output analysis, it is found that Fiji’s mining sector is an export-oriented enclave industry and that the mining industry itself has very little influence on economic activity in other sectors of the economy. Regarding issue 4) above, the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model analysis is applied. Evidence of the likely occurrence of Dutch disease can be detected from output indicators of each industry, consumer prices and exports. Examples of Dutch disease are as follows: a decrease in output of agricultural industries and in export-oriented domestic industries; an increase in consumer prices (inflation); a decrease of exports both in exportable agricultural products and in manufactured products oriented to exports. However, several macro-variables improve, such as employees’ income, trade (exports and imports), tax revenue, tariff revenue, VAT revenue, government account (savings and expenditure) and GDP etc. These results suggest that there could be a major increase in national welfare. Thus, from an economics point of view, it has been found (by comparing gains in Fijian government revenue with potential Fijian environmental costs) that it is very likely that development of the Namosi mine will result in a net social gain to Fiji. These results are based on the application of principles of social cost-benefit analysis and indicate that a Kaldor-Hicks improvement (a potential Pareto improvement) is likely for Fiji as a result of the mining development. This means that from the predicted net revenue gains of the Fijian government from mining, those who suffer environmental losses would be compensated and the government would still have some extra revenue left over. An actual Paretian improvement is also possible.

Univ., Diss.--Bonn, 2002. / Enth. 3 Beitr.

Submitted by EDUARDO JUNQUEIRA (el.junqueira@gmail.com) on 2017-03-16T19:43:11Z No. of bitstreams: 1 DissertacaoEduardoJunqueira.pdf: 5067579 bytes, checksum: 2f2d79aa0d4477ddd1f2d990cee8ff01 (MD5) / Rejected by Renata de Souza Nascimento (renata.souza@fgv.br), reason: Eduardo, Por gentileza, somente retirar a página em branco que consta antes da ficha catalográfica. Aguardo. on 2017-03-16T22:27:48Z (GMT) / Submitted by EDUARDO JUNQUEIRA (el.junqueira@gmail.com) on 2017-03-17T13:42:24Z No. of bitstreams: 1 DissertacaoEduardoJunqueira.pdf: 5067030 bytes, checksum: 86cc2c5bf2a22e77b87b962f8b24b260 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Renata de Souza Nascimento (renata.souza@fgv.br) on 2017-03-17T15:26:39Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 DissertacaoEduardoJunqueira.pdf: 5067030 bytes, checksum: 86cc2c5bf2a22e77b87b962f8b24b260 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-03-17T15:44:42Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 DissertacaoEduardoJunqueira.pdf: 5067030 bytes, checksum: 86cc2c5bf2a22e77b87b962f8b24b260 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-02-14 / This paper aims to understand the economic effect for Brazil and its ability to join Global Value Chains (GVC) when implementing the actions proposed in the Bali package, which intend to increase port efficiency (Trade Facilitations Agreement – TFA). Using a Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGE model from GTAP), it was estimated that the actions would bring economic benefits worldwide, including to Brazil. In addition, the agreement would increase the competitiveness across the globe, which in turn would result in a rise of economic integration of regions in GVC, measured by the vertical specialization metric VS and VS1. The major effects to Brazil would come from VS1 metric, mainly because of the increase of manufacturing activities which focus on primary factors such as skilled labor and capital. / Este estudo pretende entender os efeitos que a implementação das ações propostas no acordo de facilitação do comércio de Bali produziriam no desenvolvimento econômico do Brasil e na sua inserção em cadeias globais de valor. Utilizando um modelo de equilíbrio geral computável, foi simulado a implementação do acordo e conclui-se que o mesmo traria benefícios econômicos para todas as regiões estudadas, incluindo o Brasil. Ao mesmo tempo, o acordo aumentaria a competividade global entre as regiões, produzindo uma maior integração econômica mensurada por meio do aumento das métricas de especialização vertical VS e VS1. Os maiores efeitos ao Brasil ocorrem pelo aumento da métrica VS1, direcionados pelo setor de manufatura com foco em trabalho especializado e capital.