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The Gulf of Aden holds one of the strategic chokepoint along the important Eurasian maritime trade route. On both sides of the Gulf of Aden lie countries in need of political stability. In the south lies Somalia, one of the worlds longest failed states and hosts of pirates violently disrupting maritime trade in the region. On its northern shores lies Yemen, one of the poorest countries in the world and home to the terrorist movement Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. This thesis aims to look deeper into what effect on piracy another failed state in the region would have and to illustrate that the thesis describes a scenario where Yemen has followed Somalia’s footsteps and developed into a failed state. Applying Lindgren and Bandhold’s method of scenario planning and through a quantitative analysis, recent trends affecting piracy development were identified. Through a scenario cross four different scenarios were developed to illustrate the effects a failed state Yemen would have on piracy leading to which new challenges the EU might be faced with in the region. The overall conclusions are that a failed state Yemen would have a negative effect on the efforts in mitigating piracy and pirates, driven by opportunity and profit, would benefit from further instability in the region. The thesis supports previous research regarding the connection between maritime piracy in the Gulf of Aden and failed states and illustrate the multifaceted challenges the EU could face as a consequence of the new development of piracy. / <p>Erasmus</p>

La carotte MD92-1002 prélevée dans le Golfe d’Aden (12°01’32 N- 44°19’02E -1327 m de profondeur) fournit un enregistrement paléoenvironnemental et paléoclimatique unique permettant de discuter l’évolution des milieux continentaux et océaniques depuis 20 000 ans BP. J’ai effectué l'analyse des palynomorphes continentaux (grains de pollen, spores, champignons, charbons et algues d'eau douces) et marins (kystes de dinoflagellés, œufs de copépodes) et j’ai combiné ces données à des paramètres géochimiques (δ¹⁸O, analyses élémentaires par Fluorescence X) et sédimentaires (taux de sédimentation, teneurs en carbone organique). Les grains de pollen révèlent des conditions régionales hyper-arides pendant la période glaciaire caractérisée par une végétation clairsemée d’origine Saharo-Sindienne. L'abondance des taxons steppiques associés aux microparticules de charbon suggère une activité éolienne élevée. Les marqueurs d’humidité augmentent dès 14 900 ans BP et atteignent leur maximum entre 9 000 et 7 500 ans BP, au moment où se développe une mangrove à Rhizophora dans le Golfe d’Aden reflétant des conditions tropicales avec une saison pluvieuse d’été. La chronologie des événements élaborée à partir des résultats polliniques et des enregistrements continentaux tels les témoins des lacs et marécages et les spéléothèmes de Socotra et d’Oman documente la progression vers le Nord et l’Ouest de la limite estivale de la Zone de Convergence Inter-Tropicale (ITCZ) au cours de la transition glaciaire-interglaciaire, au moment de la mise en place de la Période Humide Holocène (PHH). L'ITCZ est localisée au Sud de l'Ethiopie à 19 000 ans BP puis migre vers le Nord pour atteindre Socotra à 14 510 ans BP, Qunf à 10 400 ans BP et Hoti à 10 000 ans BP. Les mouvements de l'ITCZ vers l'Ouest sont documentés par le développement de la mangrove à Rhizophora à partir de 12 600 ans BP. La carotte MD 92-1002 permet également de documenter la fin de la PHH qui débute très tôt comparativement à ce qui est observé en Afrique nord tropicale, en deux étapes successivement datées de 7500 et 4000 BP. Les assemblages de dinoflagellés montrent que la période glaciaire est caractérisée par de faibles upwellings et des eaux profondes bien ventilées. La productivité primaire marine dans le Golfe d’Aden augmente à partir de 14 500 ans BP et atteint un maximum pendant la transition glaciaire/interglaciaire, entre 12 600 et 10 800 ans BP. Il survient ~ 3 000 ans avant le pic d’intensité des upwellings de la marge d’Oman associé au maximum des vents de la mousson du S-O. Cette singularité pourrait s’expliquer par les conditions très particulières du Golfe d’Aden qui est situé à l’intersection de deux systèmes de vents orthogonaux pendant l’été boréal (des vents du S-O à l’Est du golfe et des vents orientés du N-O en provenance de la Mer Rouge). La courbe de COT révèle une nette variabilité Glaciaire/Interglaciaire, largement découplée des variations des assemblages de dinoflagellés. Cela suggère que la teneur en matière organique est essentiellement contrôlée par la préservation sur le fond marin. / Core MD92-1002 retrieved from the Gulf of Aden (12°01’32 N- 44°19’02E -1327 m of water depth) provides a unique paleoenvironmental and paleoclimatic record to study the evolution of continental and marine environments since 20 ka. I performed palynological analyses (pollen grains, spores, fungi, charcoal, freshwater algae, dinoflagellate cysts, copepod eggs) and combined those data with geochemical (δ¹⁸O, X-Ray Fluorescence) and sedimentological parameters (e.g. sedimentation rates, Total Organic Carbon (TOC)). Pollen grains reveal regional hyper-arid conditions during the glacial period, characterized by sparse vegetation cover of Saharo-Sindian origin. The abundance of steppic taxa associated with charcoal fragments suggests strong wind activity. Humidity tracers increased from 14.9 ka and reached their maximum between 9 and 7.5 ka. This maximum is characterized by the development of the tropical mangrove Rhizophora in the Gulf of Aden, reflecting tropical conditions with summer monsoon rains. The timing of events deduced from palynological records and continental data such as lacustrine and palustrine deposits and speleothems from Socotra and Oman, reveals a northward and westward shift of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) summer position at the onset of the Holocene Humid Period (HHP). The ITCZ was located in southern Ethiopia at 19 ka, then migrated northward to reach Socotra at 14.51 ka, Qunf at 10.4 ka and Hoti at 10 ka. Westward shift of ITCZ is suggested by the development of mangrove (Rhizophora) from 12.5 ka. Core MD 92-1002 reveals that HHP termination took place earlier than over tropical North Africa, in two main steps dated at 7.5 and 4 ka, respectively. Dinoflagellate cyst assemblages suggest that the glacial period was characterized by weakened upwellings and well-ventilated bottom water. Primary productivity in the Gulf of Aden increased from 14.5 ka and reached its maximum during the glacial/interglacial transition between 12.6 and 10.8 ka. It took place about ~ 3 ka earlier than the peak intensity of upwellings off the Oman margin, which is associated with the maximum of SW monsoonal winds. This singularity could be explained by the landlocked position of the gulf, at the junction between two orthogonal wind regimes during the boreal summer season (SW monsoon winds prevailing to the East of the Gulf, while NW winds blow along the main axis of the Red Sea to the west). TOC analysis reveals a Glacial-Interglacial variability that is largely decoupled from our reconstruction of surface productivity, suggesting that organic content is mainly controlled by preservation at the sea floor.

Motivation behind the spring whale shark (Rhincodon typus) aggregation in Al-Lith, on the Saudi Arabian coast of the South Central Red Sea, is uncertain. A plausible hypothesis is that whale sharks gather to feed on high prey density, leading to questions about the cause of the prey density. A bottom-up process fueled by nutrient input or accumulation from physical advection could create a peak in prey biomass. Wastewater discharged from an aquaculture facility could affect productivity or provide a chemosensory cue for whale sharks. Yet, basic physico-biological oceanography of this region is unresolved. Monthly profiles, long-term moorings, and spatial surveys were used to describe the temporal variability of potential prey biomass and water masses in this region for the first time. Plankton abundance of individuals larger than ~0.7 cm did not peak during whale shark season. Rather, a decrease coinciding the trailing end of whale shark detections was observed. Sites 180 m apart had differences in acoustic backscatter, suggesting small-scale biomass patchiness, supporting the small-scale variability in whale shark habitat selectivity. Red Sea Deep Water, a nutrient-rich water mass formed in the northern Red Sea, appeared in July at the same time the Tokar wind jet from the Sudanese mountain gap is the highest. Gulf of Aden Water, a nutrient-rich water mass from the Indian Ocean, arrived as episodes from May to September, contrary to previous expectations that the water arrives continuously. It is unlikely that these natural nutrient sources are directly responsible for the high prey density attracting the whale sharks. The aquaculture plume, observed at the aggregation site, had a distinct seasonality from the ambient waters. The plume’s highest salinity (>48) approached the extreme limits of coral tolerances. Nutrient concentrations (nitrate, nitrite, phosphate, silica), suspended particulate matter, phytoplankton biomass, bacteria and cyanobacteria cell counts, total nitrogen, and relative abundance of genera associated with opportunistic pathogenic species (e.g., Arcobacter) were significantly higher in the plume. This study was the first to estimate the nutrient flux and spatial variability of the aquaculture plume.

<p>Följande uppsats tar sin utgångspunkt ur den rådande situationen i Adenviken som präglas av illegal piratverksamhet. Adenviken med dess särskilda karaktäristik granskas i syfte att undersöka om det av militärteoretiker formulerade begreppet ”Fourth Generation Warfare” i någon mån är applicerbart på situationen. I syfte att svara upp mot uppsatsens frågeställning avhandlas begreppet 4 GW och dess historik, innebörd samt utveckling. Den empiriska delen av uppsatsen behandlar Adenviken och fokuserar på situationen i landet Somalia med dess pirater och deras illegala verksamhet. Problemområdet är intressant då Sverige idag bidrar med enheter (ME02) till den marina multinationella styrkan, EUNAVFOR, som verkar i Adenviken. Det huvudsakliga syftet för de ingående nationerna är att eskortera fartyg tillhörande WFP (World Food Program), men även bidraga till ökad säkerhet för handelssjöfarten. Uppsatsen kommer fram till att begreppet 4 GW till stor del är applicerbart. Dock är Adenviken och dess specifika karaktäristik säregen varvid vidare forskning krävs i syfte att militärteoretiskt definiera situationen i Adenviken.</p> / <p>The following essay is based on the current situation in the Gulf of Aden, which is characterized by illegal piracy activity. The Gulf of Aden with its peculiar characteristic is being examined inpurpose to identify if the conception “Fourth Generation Warfare” (4 GW) in any means is possible to apply on the situation. In purpose to answer the main issue, the essay will discuss the conception 4 GW considering history, meaning and development. The empirical part of the essay deals with the Gulf of Aden and focuses on the situation in Somalia with the pirates and their illegal activities. The problem area is interesting because today Sweden is contributing units (ME02) to the marine multinational force, EUNAVFOR, which operate in the Gulf of Aden. The main purpose of the participating nations is to escort vessels in WFP (World Food Program), but also contribute to greater security for commercial shipping. The essay concludes that the conception 4 GW in many means is able to apply on the situation. However, the Gulf of Aden and its specific characteristics is peculiar and further research is required in order to define the military situation in the Gulf of Aden.</p>

Följande uppsats tar sin utgångspunkt ur den rådande situationen i Adenviken som präglas av illegal piratverksamhet. Adenviken med dess särskilda karaktäristik granskas i syfte att undersöka om det av militärteoretiker formulerade begreppet ”Fourth Generation Warfare” i någon mån är applicerbart på situationen. I syfte att svara upp mot uppsatsens frågeställning avhandlas begreppet 4 GW och dess historik, innebörd samt utveckling. Den empiriska delen av uppsatsen behandlar Adenviken och fokuserar på situationen i landet Somalia med dess pirater och deras illegala verksamhet. Problemområdet är intressant då Sverige idag bidrar med enheter (ME02) till den marina multinationella styrkan, EUNAVFOR, som verkar i Adenviken. Det huvudsakliga syftet för de ingående nationerna är att eskortera fartyg tillhörande WFP (World Food Program), men även bidraga till ökad säkerhet för handelssjöfarten. Uppsatsen kommer fram till att begreppet 4 GW till stor del är applicerbart. Dock är Adenviken och dess specifika karaktäristik säregen varvid vidare forskning krävs i syfte att militärteoretiskt definiera situationen i Adenviken. / The following essay is based on the current situation in the Gulf of Aden, which is characterized by illegal piracy activity. The Gulf of Aden with its peculiar characteristic is being examined inpurpose to identify if the conception “Fourth Generation Warfare” (4 GW) in any means is possible to apply on the situation. In purpose to answer the main issue, the essay will discuss the conception 4 GW considering history, meaning and development. The empirical part of the essay deals with the Gulf of Aden and focuses on the situation in Somalia with the pirates and their illegal activities. The problem area is interesting because today Sweden is contributing units (ME02) to the marine multinational force, EUNAVFOR, which operate in the Gulf of Aden. The main purpose of the participating nations is to escort vessels in WFP (World Food Program), but also contribute to greater security for commercial shipping. The essay concludes that the conception 4 GW in many means is able to apply on the situation. However, the Gulf of Aden and its specific characteristics is peculiar and further research is required in order to define the military situation in the Gulf of Aden.

The diploma thesis analyzes the impacts of maritime piracy on international community. The study analyzes the situation in terms of economic impacts, but also in terms of international cooperation in solving piracy issues. The aim of the diploma thesis is to define most vulnerable locations, quantify economic impacts and evaluate the impacts of military missions in the affected regions, as well as analyze the published recommendations.

This thesis studies the counterpiracy in the Gulf of Aden. Pirates has made the international community deploy military forces to police the Gulf of Aden. However most of the systems usedare not designed for counterpiracy. Many are remnants from the cold war. Also downsizing of military forces in the West has resulted in the need to prioritize resources. The purpose of this thesis is to analyze five systems fighting pirates in the Gulf of Aden using Andersson et al. (2015)´s theory of military utility. The five systems are: light utility helicopter, medium utility helicopter, reconnaissance aircraft, combat boat and drone on tasks of detect, disrupt and deter. With the analysis the thesis discuss how the Swedish Armed Forces can use available recourses more efficiently as possible to aid in producing a greater operative effect on the national and international arena. The conclusions show that all systems have the potential to contribute to counterpiracy. Reconnaissance aircraft and drones are suitable to detect pirates. Light utility helicopters are able to detect and disrupt and partially deter. The combat boats are suitable to disrupt and deter. The medium utility helicopters are suitable for all three tasks. The thesis concludes with discussing the importance of the subsystems carried and its effects on a system´s military utility. / Den här rapporten undersöker piratbekämpningen i Adenviken. Piraterna har gjort att världssamfundet skickat militära styrkor för att patrullera Adenviken. De flesta system som används för piratbekämpningen är däremot inte designade för det ändamålet. Många är kvarlevor från det kalla kriget. Samtidigt som en minskning av de militära styrkorna har lett till behovet att bättre prioritera tillgängliga resurser. Syftet med den här rapporten är att analysera fem system som bekämpar pirater i Adenviken genom att använda Andersson et al. (2015)´s teori om militär nytta. De fem systemen är: Lätt helikopter, medeltung helikopter, spaningsflygplan, stridsbåt och drönare. Uppgifterna de ställs mot är: att upptäcka, avbryta samt avskräcka. För att med den analysen diskutera hur Försvarsmakten kan använda tillgängliga resurser effektivare och skapa operativ effekt, nationellt såväl som internationellt. Slutsatserna visar att alla system har potential att bidra till piratbekämpningen. Spaningsflygplan och drönare är lämpliga för att upptäcka pirater. Lätt helikopter är lämplig för att upptäcka och avbryta samt delvis avskräcka. Stridsbåten är lämplig för att avbryta och avskräcka. Medeltung helikopter är lämplig för alla tre uppgifter. Rapporten har diskuterat den betydelse som subsystemen har för systemens militära nytta.

This case study is the first comprehensive analysis of the German Democratic Republic’s activities in South Yemen, the only Marxist state in the Arab World and at times the closest and most loyal ally to the Soviet Union in the Middle East during the Cold War. The dissertation analyzes East German Foreign Policy as a case of Socialist state- and nation-building and in doing so produces one major hypotheses: The case of South Yemen may be considered both, an ‘exceptional case’ and the possible ‘ideal type’ of the ‘general’ of East German foreign policy and thus points to what the GDR’s foreign policy could have been, if it hadn’t been for the numerous restraints of East German foreign-policy-making. The author critically engages with the normative and empirical dimensions of the ‘Limits of Foreign Policy’ by including a constructivist perspective of foreign policy. Apart from the case study itself, the dissertation provides the reader with a thorough overview of forty years of East German foreign policy with a focus on the interests and influence of The Soviet Union as well as the first introduction and methodological approach to East Germany's foreign policy in the Middle East. The empirical side of the analysis rests on archival documents of the German Foreign Office, the German National Archive and the former Ministry of State Security of the GDR. These documents are reviewed and published for the first time and are complemented by personal interviews with contemporary witnesses. The interdisciplinary approach integrates and expands methods of both History and Political Science, applicable to other cases. Conducted research is intended to contribute to academic discourse on South Yemen’s unique history, divided Germany’s role in the Cold War, East German foreign policy, but also the long-term impact of Socialist foreign-policy-making in the Global South which so far has been neglected almost completely in academia. / Graduate / miriam.mueller@fu-berlin.de