The Sub artic regions are becoming increasingly important due to the effects of climate change. In northern Sweden, thawing of permafrost has led to significant increases in annual minimum flows in several catchments. This has led to studies of groundwater flow, responses to precipitation and runoff, and subsurface connectivity of springs on slopes. However, there remains a limited understanding of the interplay between surface flow and subsurface flow in the hillslopes of subarctic region. There is a need to better understand the flow pathways and connectivity of groundwater flows within the slopes. This study aims to analyze the interactions between surface flow and subsurface flow on an Sub artic mountainside. Utilizing tracer experiments and a hydrological model, the complex dynamics governing water movement within this intricate system have been studied.  Tracer experiments affirmed the hydraulic connection between hillslope and spring. The spring's response to tracer injection hinted at dominant preferential flow paths within the regolith layer's base. Nonetheless, only 40% mass recovery raised queries about factors affecting the flow in the hillslope. Thus, in this project, a model was developed using Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS) to examine the dominant flow processes and evaluate the influence of various hydrogeology parameters and fluid flow properties on tracer movement. The results highlight the dominance of subsurface flows occurring close to the surface. The parameter sensitivity analysis conducted in the study showed that roughness coefficient and permeability significantly influenced specific pathways and directions that water, and tracers took as they moved through the hillslope's subsurface layers and regolith.  However, the model has limitations, such as neglecting the lateral variations of the subsurface material, seasonal freeze-thaw processes and the simplified representation of the slope and catchment. The results of this study show the need for utilizing more field-based methodologies and further refinement of the modeling approach to improve our understanding of hydrologic processes in high latitude areas.

I området Ren i Bollnäs kommun ska exploatering av ett nytt bostadsområde ske utifrån detaljplan Ren 30:1. Vanligtvis genomförs hydrologisk modellering med nationella höjdmodellen (NH) som underlag inför exploatering. Med hjälp av metoder som skyfallskartering kan risken för översvämning och dess eventuella konsekvenser förutses. NH tillhandahålls av Lantmäteriet och finns tillgänglig som punktmoln och 2 m raster och kan användas som underlag för hydrologiska modelleringar. NH lämpar sig bäst för nationell och regional planering som ska göras översiktligt på grund av punkttätheten som är förhållandevis låg. Syftet med den här studien var att undersöka olika underlag för hydrologisk modellering genom att jämföra NH mot digitala höjdmodeller från data insamlat med unmanned aerial system (UAS) på flyghöjderna 80 och 120 m. UAS-flygningarna utfördes med en drönare av modellen DJI Phantom 4 Pro V2.0 som samlade in höjddata fotogrammetriskt. Bearbetning, georeferering och skapande av höjdmodell utfördes i programvarorna Agisoft Photoscan och ESRI ArcGIS. GNSS med nätverks-RTK användes för inmätning av flygsignaler och kontrollprofiler. Hydrologisk modellering genomfördes med beräkningar av flödesriktning och flödesackumulation på underlag från NH och flygdata insamlat med UAS i ArcGIS. På alla underlag genomfördes skyfallskarteringar i Caesar Lisflood-FP. Eftersom Caesar Lisflood-FP hade en begränsning för hur stora mängder data som kunde hanteras ändrades cellstorleken på rastren till 1 m istället för 0,5 m, NH utvärderades i originalstorleken 2 m.Med UAS erhölls en högre punkttäthet och utifrån det kunde ett mer högupplöst raster på 0,5 m skapas jämfört med NH med en rasterstorlek på 2 m. Kontroll av höjddata från 120 m och 80 m visade att den lägre flyghöjden genererade en höjdmodell med högre noggrannhet. Utvärdering av överlapp vid skyfallskartering och vattendjup visade att data insamlat med UAS från 120 m och 80 m överensstämde med 96,7 % för vattenutbredning och största vattendjupen var 0,51 m och 0,48 m. Mellan NH och UAS-data fanns större skillnader i både vattendjup och utbredning. Slutsatsen i den här studien blev att olika underlag påverkar den hydrologisk modelleringen genom att t.ex. flödesriktning, vattendjup och utbredning avviker beroende på vilket underlag som används (UAS eller NH) men även upplösning och flyghöjd. / In the area Ren in Bollnäs municipality, development of a new residential area shall take place based on detailed development plan Ren 30: 1. Hydrological modeling with the national height model (NH) is usually carried out as a basis for development. Using methods such as mapping rainfall, the risk of flooding and its possible consequences can be predicted. NH is available at Lantmäteriet as point cloud and 2 m grid and can be used as a basis for hydrological modeling. NH is best suited for national and regional planning to be done briefly, because of the point density that is relatively low. The purpose of this study was to investigate different data sources for hydrological modeling by comparing NH against digital height models collected with unmanned aerial system (UAS) at flight heights of 80 and 120 m. The UAS flights were performed using the model DJI Phantom 4 Pro V2.0 which collected height data photogrammetric. Processing, geo-referencing and creation of height model were performed in the Agisoft Photoscan and ESRI ArcGIS software. GNSS with network RTK was used for surveying flight signals and control profiles. Hydrological modeling was carried out with calculations of flow direction and flow accumulation based on NH and UAS data in ArcGIS. Rainfall modeling were carried out in Caesar Lisflood-FP. Since Caesar Lisflood-FP had a limit on how large amounts of data could be handled, the cell size of the raster was changed to 1 m instead of 0.5 m, NH was evaluated in the original size 2 m. A higher point density was obtained with UAS and due to that, a higher resolution grid of 0.5 m could be created compared to NH with a grid size of 2 m. Control of height data from 120 m and 80 m showed that the lower flight height generated a height model with higher accuracy. The evaluation of rainfall mapping and water depth showed that data collected with UAS from 120 m and 80 m corresponded to 96.7% in water extent, and the largest water depths were 0.51 and 0.48 m. Between NH and the two UAS data, there were greater differences in both water depth and extent. The conclusion in this study was that different basis affect the hydrological modeling by for example flow direction, water depth and water spread differ depending on the data source (UAS or NH) as well on the resolution used, and the flight height.

The research explores the potential impact of climate change on water availability in the highlands of Yemen across various future scenarios. To overcome the challenge of limited ground observations in Yemen, the study first evaluated multiple advanced climate datasets, including satellite-based, reanalysis, and gauge-based data. It then employed statistical downscaling to produce more accurate projections with higher spatial resolution and used the SWAT hydrological model to examine how key water components will be affected by changes in precipitation and temperature. Additionally, the study included a socio-economic analysis to identify practical adaptation measures to mitigate the impact on water availability, with a particular emphasis on local strategies that can be effectively implemented by the community.:List of Figures v List of Tables x Abbreviations and Symbols xii Abstract xv General Abstract xvii 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Overview 2 1.2 Description of the study area 5 1.3 Objectives of the study 7 1.4 Arrangement of the research chapters 8 1.5 A List of the Papers and their Contributions to the Thesis 10 Evaluation the Performance of Several Precipitation Products over the Highland Region of Yemen for Water Resources Management 13 2.1 Introduction 15 2.2 Study area and climate data 18 2.2.1 Region of interest 18 2.2.2 Data sets 19 2.2.3 Satellite-based data 20 2.2.4 Reanalysis data 21 2.2.5 Gauge-based data 22 2.3 Materials and Methods 24 2.3.1 Quality control of ground data 24 2.3.2 Comparing the precipitation products against observations 24 2.4 Results 27 2.4.1 Examination of rainfall daily estimates 27 2.4.2 Monthly evaluation 30 2.4.3 Annual timescale evaluation 36 2.5 Discussion 39 2.6 Conclusion 40 Projection of Climate Variability on the Yemeni Highlands by Statistical Down-Scaling for the Period 2010-2100 44 3.1 Introduction 47 3.2 The study area 52 3.3 Methodology and data sets 54 3.3.1 High-resolution gridded data 55 3.3.2 Reanalysis data 55 3.3.3 Global Climate Models (GCMs) data 56 3.3.4 Assessment of GCMs ensembles (CMIP5 and CMIP6) 57 3.3.5 The Statistical Down-Scaling Model (SDSM) 58 3.3.6 Predictors and steps of calibration and validation of SDSM 60 3.4 Results 60 3.4.1 Calibration and validation of precipitation 60 3.4.2 Calibration result of the temperature 65 3.4.3 Current condition of precipitation across the region 66 3.4.4 Seasonal future scenarios of precipitation 68 3.4.5 Annual projections of precipitation 72 3.4.6 Evaluation of SDSM precipitation output with GCMs estimates against rainfall observations 74 3.4.7 Long-term changes in maximum temperature 75 3.4.8 Long-term changes in minimum temperature 77 3.4.9 Evaluation of SDSM output and GCMs estimates against observed temperature 78 3.5 Discussion 79 3.6 Summary and conclusion 82 4 Hydrological Investigation of Climate Change Impacts on Water Balance Components in the Terraced Watersheds of Yemeni Highlands Region 85 4.1 Introduction 86 4.2 Materials and methods 88 4.2.1 Description of the catchments 88 4.2.2 Soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) 91 4.2.3 Topography and watershed configuration 92 4.2.4 Soil data 92 4.2.5 Land use and land cover (LULC) data 93 4.2.6 Hydro-meteorological data 94 4.2.7 Elevation bands and terraces integration 96 4.3 Model performance metrics 99 4.4 Results 100 4.4.1 Sensitivity analysis 100 4.4.2 Result of calibration and validation 102 4.4.3 Climate change projected change on the region 105 4.4.4 Impact assessment of the hydrological regime of Sana’a catchment 107 4.4.5 Assessment of hydrological regime of Surdod catchment 109 4.4.6 Assessment of climate change impact on the hydrological regime of Siham watershed 111 4.5 Discussion 113 4.6 Summary and conclusion 118 5 Potential of Traditional Adaptation Measures in Mitigating the Impacts of Climate Change 120 5.1 Introduction 121 5.2 Materials and methods 125 5.2.1 The study area 125 5.2.2 Data collection 125 5.3 Result and discussion 127 5.3.1 Agricultural water management 127 5.3.2 Farming measures 132 5.3.3 Soil protection measures 134 5.3.4 Conservation of natural resources 135 5.3.5 Household measures 137 5.3.6 Social aspects and challenges 139 5.4 Conclusion 142 6 General Conclusion and Recommendations 145 6.1 General conclusion 145 6.1.1 Summary 146 6.1.2 General recommendations 148 Acknowledgement 151 Bibliography 179 7 Supplementary Materials 180 7.1 Supplementary material Chapter 3 181 7.2 Supplementary materials chapter 4 184

京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第25249号 / 工博第5208号 / 京都大学大学院工学研究科社会基盤工学専攻 / (主査)教授 立川 康人, 教授 田中 賢治, 教授 佐山 敬洋 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DFAM

京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第25252号 / 工博第5211号 / 京都大学大学院工学研究科社会基盤工学専攻 / (主査)教授 立川 康人, 教授 堀 智晴, 教授 佐山 敬洋 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DGAM

Les travaux présentés dans cette thèse portent sur la notion de performance environnementale comme cadre analytique pour l’étude des impacts des activités agricoles sur l’environnement. Après avoir mis en évidence un manque de formalisation de cette notion dans la littérature, nous la définissons comme la distance entre l’état environnemental d’un écosystème à un moment donné et un état environnemental à atteindre pour cet écosystème, dit « de haute performance environnementale ». Dans cette étude, l’état environnemental est approché par trois critères liés à la ressource « eau » : les concentrations en nitrates et en matières en suspension, et les débits.Suite à la description de l’état initial, nous proposons une méthode d’optimisation de la performance environnementale des activités agricoles basée sur un couplage entre un modèle agro-hydrologique (SWAT) et un modèle d’optimisation multicritère (Weighted Goal Programming). La démarche d’optimisation considère la réaffectation spatialisée de systèmes de culture sur l’espace considéré comme facteur d’amélioration, les différents critères de l’optimisation étant examinés simultanément.La méthode est implémentée sur le bassin versant de la Boulouze (coteaux de Gascogne). Les résultats montrent une amélioration de la performance environnementale du système étudié. L’analyse de la nouvelle occupation des sols souligne qu’au-delà des évolutions quantitatives des surfaces allouées aux systèmes de culture, la spatialisation des changements d’un système vers un autre influe également sur la performance environnementale à l’échelle du bassin versant. Enfin, nous interrogeons l’applicabilité de cette méthode et mettons en évidence l’intérêt qu’elle présente comme outil à la fois de modélisation de scénarios et de communication. / We introduce in this thesis the notion of environmental performance as an analytical framework aimed at studying the impacts of agricultural activities on the environment. We outline first a need to formalize this notion and then define it as the distance between the “environmental” state of a system at a specific time and a state of “high environmental performance” to achieve. Focus is on water management at the watershed level with three criteria: nitrogen, sediments (water quality) and water flows (water quantity).Our aim is to optimize the environmental performance of agricultural activities at the watershed scale. First the initial status of the watershed is described, then a method is proposed. This method is based on a coupling between an agro-hydrological model, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), and the Weighted Goal Programming optimization method. Our purpose is the reallocation of farming systems within the watershed when considering the optimization criteria simultaneously.We implement this method on the Boulouze watershed (coteaux de Gascogne, in the southwestern part of France). Results outline an improvement of the environmental performance. The analysis of the new land-use plan emphasizes the fact that the changes of farming systems are not only due to evolutions of the surfaces where they are implemented, but that the environmental performance at watershed scale is also affected by their location.Finally we explore the applicability of the method used highlighting its attributes as a relevant tool for modeling scenarios and for communicating.

La gestion des eaux pluviales urbaines connait une évolution majeure depuis les années 1960 : d'une stratégie basée sur l'évacuation rapide et totale des eaux pluviales de la ville, on passe progressivement à une stratégie de contrôle à la source (CS). Ces 10 dernières années ont vu une généralisation du CS, ainsi qu'en témoigne l'augmentation du nombre de réglementations de rejet. Ces dernières imposent, dans les nouvelles parcelles urbanisées, la réalisation d'ouvrages ayant pour fonction de réguler et/ou de retenir les eaux pluviales : les techniques alternatives (TA). Une systématisation de ces réglementations ne va pas manquer de générer dans l'avenir de nombreux bassins versants urbains fortement équipés en TA, et dont le comportement hydrologique sera déterminé par les réglementations appliquées. Il apparaît que le choix d'une réglementation par une collectivité est un choix complexe et, d'une collectivité à l'autre, des logiques différentes sont appliquées, dont la cohérence globale peut être discutée. Cette thèse questionne et analyse les politiques de CS, et en particulier les réglementations de rejet, dans une perspective de compréhension de leurs effets hydrologiques dans le long terme. Elle comprend deux analyses complémentaires : nous étudions d'abord l'évolution des politiques de CS dans six collectivités en France, afin de déterminer les logiques appliquées dans le choix des réglementations. Nous présentons ensuite une analyse hydrologique des conséquences de ces réglementations sur le comportement de bassins versant urbains "modèles". Cette analyse, centrée sur la modélisation hydrologique des bassins, permet de questionner les politiques de CS actuelles, mais aussi de discuter des outils que l'hydrologie urbaine peut fournir pour permettre la mise en place de politiques de CS cohérentes, en phase avec le fonctionnement hydrologique des bassins versants / Urban stormwater management is facing a major evolution since 1960: from a strategy based on the complete and fast conveyance of stormwater outside of the urban area, to a strategy based on source control (SC). Recently, SC is becoming a common practice, in connection with the increasing diffusion of flow regulations. These regulations prescribe, for all new urban development, to build facilities (Best Management Practices, BMP) to reduce the flow-rate or the volume of stormwater entering the sewer system. A wide application of flow regulations will determine the future hydrological behaviour of many urban catchments. The choice of a regulation is a complex task for local authorities, involving several logics, whose global coherence can be discussed. This thesis analyses SC policies and regulations and discusses them in terms of their long-term hydrological effects. Two complementary approaches are developed. The first is based on the analysis of the evolution of SC policies in six French authorities, and it aims to define and discuss the logics applied. The second consists in the hydrological modelling of the consequences of SC regulations on the behaviour of two experimental catchments. This hydrological analysis allows (i) to evaluate the pertinence of actual SC policies and (ii) to discuss which tools urban hydrology can provide to support the development of coherent SC policies, according to the hydrological functioning of urban catchments

Os atuais e persistentes cenários de enchentes da Região Metropolitana de São Paulo, e suas consequências em seu espaço e cotidiano, evidenciam a complexidade dessa problemática. A recorrência das enchentes sugere que, mesmo diante da adoção de medidas de controle, combate e mitigação, tais ações demonstraram-se insuficientes, estando associadas a limitações das metodologias e dos modelos a serem abordados. Este estudo relaciona-se a esta última proposição, testando e aplicando formas de integração das abordagens geomorfológicas, às abordagens oriundas da hidrologia e da hidráulica. O objetivo foi analisar as variabilidades temporal e espacial dos resultados de simulações hidrológicas e hidráulicas e compará-los aos mapeamentos obtidos pela Geomorfologia Antropogênica a partir da cartografia geomorfológica evolutiva na bacia hidrográfica do córrego Três Pontes (SP), de modo a identificar potenciais de complementariedade e integração dessas metodologias. Primeiramente, realizou-se a fotointerpretação e reconstituição das morfologias originais (1962) e das formas antropogênicas (2011), gerando cartografias de perturbação que assumiram diferentes graus de susceptibilidades às inundações e ao escoamento superficial concentrado. Em seguida, modelos hidrológicos (Ven Te Chow SCS e Hidrograma Unitário SCS, pelo ABC6) e hidráulico (pelo HECRAS) foram aplicados nos cenários reconstituídos anteriormente, determinando o aumento da vazão de pico e das áreas inundadas entre os anos estudados para tormentas de diferentes tempos de retornos. Os resultados das modelagens hidrológicas e hidráulicas demonstraram aumento significativo da vazão de pico e uma ampliação expressiva da área inundada na BHTP entre 1962 e 2011. Comparados os limites de áreas inundadas obtidos pela modelagem hidráulica à cartografia de vulnerabilidade à inundação, constatou-se uma compatibilidade de resultados. Por um lado, foram identificadas e discutidas limitações relacionadas aos pressupostos, parâmetros e coeficientes de ambas as metodologias; por outro lado, foram assinalados potenciais de integração entre elas. De modo geral, pode-se afirmar que os resultados obtidos contribuem ao conhecimento hidrológico e geomorfológico urbanos, em especial à área de estudo, e constitui um esforço interdisciplinar de aproximar duas especialidades fundamentais ao planejamento territorial urbano. / The current and persistent flooding scenarios in the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo, and their consequences on its space and life, point out to the complexity of this issue. The recurrence of flooding suggests that, even though policies of control, ordering and mitigation were adopted, its measures demonstrated not to be enough, associated with limitations of the methodologies and hydrological and hydraulic forecast models. This research is related to this last proposition, testing and applying ways in which the approaches of geomorphology, hydrology and hydraulics, can be integrated. Therefore, the study aims to analyze the temporal and spatial variability of hydrologic and hydraulic simulations results and to compare them with the mappings obtained by Anthropogenic Geomorphology from evolutionary geomorphological mapping at the stream Três Pontes basin, in order to identify the dialogues and potentials of integration between these methodologies. Firstly, airphotos and satellite images were interpreted and the original morphologies (1962) and anthropogenic forms (2011) reconstructed and mapped, from which disturbance maps were produced considering different susceptibilities to flooding and concentration of discharges. Afterwards, hydrological models (Ven Te Chow-SCS and Unit Hydrograph-SCS using ABC6 ) and hydraulic models (using HEC-RAS ) were applied considering the same scenarios previously reconstituted and, as a result, the increase on peak discharge and of flooding areas, between 1962 e 2011, were determined for different recurrence intervals. When compared, the boundaries of flooded areas obtained through the hydraulic modeling and the flood susceptibility cartography, demonstrated the compatibilities between the results. Limitations of some parameters, coefficients and assumptions related to both methodologies were identified and discussed, as well as, the potential of integration between the two. As a whole, the obtained results contribute to the urban hydrological and geomorphological knowledge, especially in the studied area, and constitute an interdisciplinary effort to approximate two fundamental territorial planning fields.

Vários trabalhos relacionados ao tema produção de água estão sendo realizados, tendo em comum a associação da cobertura florestal com o escoamento em bacias hidrográficas. Entretanto, não existem estudos onde foram verificados os locais onde esta cobertura tem efeito ótimo, pois, este é dependente das condições edafoclimáticas de cada bacia. O objetivo deste trabalho é avaliar as alterações na produção de água ocasionadas pela posição das áreas com cobertura florestal em relação às de solos rasos em uma bacia hidrográfica. Os estudos foram realizados na Bacia Hidrográfica do Ribeirão dos Marins em Piracicaba, SP, Brasil, por meio da modelagem hidrológica utilizando o modelo distribuído GSSHA. Para a calibração foram utilizados dados meteorológicos, fluviométricos e pluviométricos dos anos de 1999 e 2000, além da obtenção, em laboratório, da condutividade hidráulica e da curva de retenção dos solos da bacia. Foram realizadas sondagens SPT e testes de infiltração de água no solo para determinar a espessura dos solos na bacia e a condutividade hidráulica da zona saturada (lençol freático) desta. A espessura dos solos foi representada por um modelo numérico, elaborado a partir das espessuras medidas e da utilização do modelo HAND. A profundidade do lençol freático foi representada por outro modelo numérico, elaborado a partir da espessura do solo e da profundidade deste lençol medida em campo. Uma nova metodologia que, a partir do coeficiente CN, estima o coeficiente de rugosidade de Manning foi utilizada, apresentando resultados satisfatórios. Nos processos de calibração e validação o modelo apresentou coeficientes de índices de correlação adequados. Foram feitas simulações hidrológicas para 15 anos em três cenários de uso e ocupação do solo, que foram elaborados de modo a comparar uma mesma área de cobertura florestal em diferentes posições da bacia, em função da presença de solos rasos nas proximidades dos cursos d\'água. Foram analisados, entre os cenários para todo o período simulado: o escoamento total e o de base; parâmetros dos hidrogramas (em eventos selecionados da série histórica); posição do lençol freático; umidade do solo; e, curva de permanência. Os resultados permitiram concluir que na área de estudo não há influência da posição da cobertura florestal em relação aos solos rasos para a produção de água. Devido à existência de poucos trabalhos a campo e, também, de modelagem que abordem o efeito da localização da cobertura florestal na produção de água, incentiva-se a realização de novas pesquisas, necessárias, entre outras razões, para a determinação dos locais prioritários a reflorestar ou manter florestado em programas de conservação ambiental. / Several works related to the theme of water production are being made, having in common the association of forest cover with runoff in watersheds. However, no studies were found where the places where this land cover has optimum effect, because it is dependent on climatic and physiographic conditions of each watershed. The objective of this study is to evaluate changes in water yield caused by the spatial distribution of forest cover in relation to the shallow soils in a watershed. The studies were conducted in the watershed \"Ribeirão dos Marins\" in Piracicaba, SP, Brazil, through the hydrologic modeling using the distributed model GSSHA. For calibration were used data of meteorological, rainfall and stream flow to the years 1999 and 2000, in addition of the hydraulic conductivity and soil water retention curve obtained in laboratory. SPT tests and water infiltration tests were conducted to determine the thickness of the soils and hydraulic conductivity of the saturated zone (water table) in the watershed. The thickness of the soil was represented by a numerical model, based on those thicknesses measures and the model HAND. The depth of the water table was represented by another numerical model, drawn from the soil thickness and depth of field measured. A new methodology that estimates the Manning coefficient from the CN coefficient was used with satisfactory results. In the processes of calibration and validation of the model, the coefficients showed adequate correlation indexes. Hydrological simulations were made for 15 years in three land cover and land use scenarios, which have been prepared in order to compare the same area of forest cover in different positions of the basin, due to the presence of shallow soils near watercourses. Were analyzed, among the scenarios simulated for the entire period: total flow and baseflow; parameters of hydrographs (in selected events of the series); position of the water table, available water content; and flow duration curves. The results showed that in the study area there is no influence of the position of forest cover in relation to shallow soils to the water yield. Because there are few studies that address the effect of the location of forest cover in water yield is encouraged to conduct further research, among other reasons, for the determination of the priority sites to the reforestation in environmental conservation programs.

La thèse explore l’utilisation de modèles hydrologiques globaux pour estimer la disponibilité en eau agricole dans le contexte des Andes chiliennes semi-arides. Dans cette région, l’approvisionnement en eau des cultures irriguées de fonds de vallée durant l’été dépend de précipitations se produisant sous forme de neige à haute altitude lors de quelques évènements hivernaux. L’influence des phénomènes ENSO et PDO induit par ailleurs une forte variabilité climatique à l’échelle inter-annuelle, marquée par l’occurrence d’années extrêmement sèches ou humides. La région connaît aussi depuis les années 1980 une progression importante de la viticulture irriguée. Afin de prendre en compte les variations saisonnières et inter-annuelles de la disponibilité et de la consommation en eau d’irrigation, une chaîne de modélisation intégrée a été développée et différentes méthodes de quantification/réduction des incertitudes de simulation ont été mises en œuvre. Les écoulements naturels ont été simulés avec un modèle hydrologique global de type empirique/conceptuel prenant en compte les processus d’accumulation et d’ablation de la neige. En parallèle, les besoins en eau d’irrigation ont été estimés à l’échelle du bassin à partir de modèles phénologiques orientés processus et d’une approche simple du bilan hydrique du sol. Dans l’ensemble, une approche holistique et parcimonieuse a été privilégiée afin de maintenir un niveau d’abstraction mathématique et de représentation des processus équivalent à celui des modèles de bassin couramment utilisés. Afin d’améliorer l’utilité et la fiabilité des simulations obtenues en contexte de changement ou de forte variabilité climatique, l’effet des températures extrêmes sur le développement des cultures et l’impact des pertes en eau par sublimation à haute altitude ont fait l’objet d’une attention particulière. Ce cadre de modélisation conceptuel a été testé pour un bassin typique des Andes semi-arides (1512 km2, 820–5500 m a.s.l.) sur une période de 20 ans incluant une large gamme de conditions climatiques et des pratiques agricoles non-stationnaires (évolution des variétés de vigne, des surfaces et modes d’irrigation, etc). L’évaluation des modèles a été réalisée dans un cadre bayésien en faisant l’hypothèse d’erreurs auto-corrélées, hétéroscédastiques et non-gaussiennes. Différents critères et sources de données ont par ailleurs été mobilisés afin de vérifier l’efficacité et la cohérence interne de la chaîne de modélisation ainsi que la fiabilité statistique et la finesse des intervalles de confiance obtenus. De manière alternative, une caractérisation des erreurs de structure et de l’ambiguïté propre au choix du modèle hydrologique a été réalisée de manière non-probabiliste à partir d’une plate-forme de modélisation modulaire. Dans l’ensemble, la prise en compte explicite de la consommation en eau des cultures a mis en valeur certaines interactions entre paramètres hydrologiques et permis d’améliorer la fiabilité des simulations hydrologiques en année sèche. Finalement, une étude de sensibilité à différents seuils d’augmentation de la température et de la concentration en CO2 a été effectuée afin d’évaluer l’impact potentiel des changements climatiques sur le comportement de l’hydrosystème et la capacité à satisfaire la demande en eau d’irrigation dans le futur. / This thesis investigates the use of lumped catchment models to assess water availability for irrigation in the upland areas of northern-central Chile (30°S). Here, most of the annual water supply falls as snow in the high Cordillera during a few winter storms. Seasonal snowpacks serve as natural reservoirs, accumulating water during the winter and sustaining streams and aquifers during the summer, when irrigation demand in the cultivated valleys is at its peak. At the inter-annual timescale, the influence of ENSO and PDO phenomena result in the occurrence of extremely wet and dry years. Also, irrigated areas and grape growing have achieved a dramatic increase since the early 1980s. To evaluate the usefulness of explicitly accounting for changes in irrigation water-use in lumped catchment models, an integrated modeling framework was developed and different ways of quantifying/reducing model uncertainty were explored. Natural streamflow was simulated using an empirical hydrological model and a snowmelt routine. In parallel, seasonal and inter-annual variations in irrigation requirements were estimated using several process-based phenological models and a simple soil-water balance approach. Overall, this resulted in a low-dimensional, holistic approach based on the same level of mathematical abstraction and process representation as in most commonly-used catchment models. To improve model reliability and usefulness under varying or changing climate conditions, particular attention was paid to the effects of extreme temperatures on crop phenology and the contribution of sublimation losses to water balance at high elevations. This conceptual framework was tested in a typical semi-arid Andean catchment (1512 km2, 820–5500 m a.s.l.) over a 20–year simulation period encompassing a wide range of climate and water-use conditions (changes in grape varieties, irrigated areas, irrigation techniques). Model evaluation was performed from a Bayesian perspective assuming auto-correlated, heteroscedastic and non-gaussian residuals. Different criteria and data sources were used to verify model assumptions in terms of efficiency, internal consistency, statistical reliability and sharpness of the predictive uncertainty bands. Alternatively, a multiple-hypothesis and multi-criteria modeling framework was also developed to quantify the importance of model non-uniqueness and structural inadequacy from a non-probabilistic perspective. On the whole, incorporating the effects of irrigation water-use led to new interactions between the hydrological parameters of the modeling framework and improved reliability of streamflow predictions during low-flow periods. Finally, a sensitivity analysis to changes in climate conditions was conducted to evaluate the potential impacts of increasing temperatures and atmospheric CO2 on the hydrological behavior of the catchment and the capacity to meet future water demands.