This thesis contains three main parts. In the first part, we adapt a model developed for the US economy to the unique Chinese economic and institutional context. The uniqueness is mainly from two perspectives: the dual-channel housing financing system in China and the existence of the shadow banking sector (which differs from the shadow banking in developed economies) in China’s housing market. It would be difficult to obtain a clear picture of the Chinese housing market and macroeconomy without a thorough understanding of these two characteristics. This is due to the crucial role played by shadow banking and other informal finance institutions within the context of China in both the development and purchase of housing, in supporting productive economic activities in general, and that the housing market is in turn intricately connected to the health of the Chinese economy, being a key ‘barometer’. The second part of the research is the quantification of the determinants of the scale of shadow banking in China. The quantification is crucial since policy makers need to be aware of how sensitive shadow banking is to various factors. We develop a theoretical framework to explain the evolution of the scale of shadow banking in China. As part of this research, we investigate whether the real interest rate of household saving deposits, the required reserve ratio and bank loans to business and household are the main factors in explaining the evolution of China’s shadow banking. In the third part of research, we employ a credit risk and macroeconomic stress test to investigate the vulnerability of the commercial banks in China. Our originality here is the integration of both the role of shadow banking and housing market related loans in the commercial banks’ stress test scenarios at the macro level. Since a systematic analysis regarding the effect of changes in the macroeconomy and housing market on the credit risk of commercial banks in China is scarce, we use bank stress tests to analyse the credit risk in terms of the non-performing loans ratio of commercial banks in China; this is in response to changes in the macroeconomic factors and housing market. We address the role of the variation of the scale of shadow banking in China in terms of its contribution to the credit risk because of its uncertainty and close link with the commercial banks. Stress tests often focus on a single bank or financial institution yet we apply the same principles to examine the financial system as a whole in China, which would allow us to quantify the systemic risk in the entire Chinese financial system; and which variables, especially shadow banking contribute to the risks and by how much. This thesis contributes to the understanding of how China’s dual-channel housing finance system and shadow banking affect the evolution of house prices; and also, the main driving factors of the scale of China’s shadow banking and whether the housing market related loans and shadow banking pose risks to commercial banks. Possible research questions raised by the main findings of this thesis will enrich the debate on China’s housing market, shadow banking and regular banks, especially at a time when China is reforming its economic structure.

A presente dissertação tem o objetivo de investigar o impacto da proximidade e da qualidade das escolas no preço das residências do município de São Paulo. Mais especificamente, o estudo avalia como o mercado imobiliário de residências capitaliza a presença e a qualidade das escolas públicas e privadas de Ensino Fundamental de primeira a quarta série. São Paulo combina um sistema de ensino público que tem a regra de matrícula baseada na proximidade da residência à escola com um sistema privado bem desenvolvido, disponibilizando cerca de 800 escolas apenas neste nível de ensino. Utilizando uma extensa base de dados de lançamentos residenciais no período de janeiro de 2002 a março de 2008, foram encontradas evidências de que, em média, o mercado imobiliário da cidade de São Paulo não capitaliza a proximidade nem a qualidade das escolas, tanto públicas quanto privadas. Fatores como a proximidade aos principais centros de empregos da cidade e características da vizinhança, como proximidade a favelas, parecem prevalecer no processo de decisão sobre a localização da residência. Todos esses resultados foram obtidos através da estimação de modelos hedônicos cuja especificação foi definida com base nos modelos de economia urbana e nos princípios de economia espacial. / The aim of this dissertation is to measure how the housing market in the city of São Paulo capitalizes the proximity and the quality of public and private primary schools. São Paulo combines a public system with registration based on the residences proximity to school with a well developed private system, which provides approximately 800 schools as an alternative primary education for children. Using an extensive database of new residential developments during the period of January 2002 to March 2008, the results show evidences that the housing market in São Paulo does not capitalize the proximity neither the quality of primary public and private schools. The results were obtained through the estimation of hedonic models whose specification was defined based on the models of urban economics and the principles of spatial economics

<p><em>Background </em></p><p>Apartment ownership is a popular and well established type of housing in many countries, such as Norway, Denmark and UK. During spring 2009 the Swedish Parliament passed a new legislation which made it possible for apartment ownerships also in Sweden. But apartment ownership has had a slow start, which partly can be explained by the recent recession.</p><p><em>Purpose & method</em></p><p>The purpose of this paper is to study the market of apartment ownership in Öckerö, Stockholm and Karlstad. The study is a qualitative examination where relevant companies from the submarkets have been interviewed.</p><p><em>Result</em></p><p>The result of this study shows that the interest for apartment ownership is over all high in all three submarkets. It is yet clear the knowledge about apartment ownership is generally poor among the public, and when the banks still misses proper routines for mortgages, it creates uncertainty, and slows down the market. Furthermore, the existing legislation restricts the establishment because few objects are entitled to be reorganized. The conclusion of this study is thus that the market for apartment ownership would gain on an expansion of the legislation and a more efficient marketing.</p> / <p><em>Bakgrund </em></p><p>Lägenheter med äganderätt är sedan länge en populär och väletablerad boendeform i många länder, som exempelvis i Norge, Danmark och England. Våren år 2009 antog Riksdagen en ny lag som tillåter ägarlägenheter även i Sverige. Boendeformen har dock fått en trög start som delvis kan förklaras av den rådande lågkonjunkturen.</p><p><em>Syfte & metod</em></p><p>Syftet med studien är att studera marknaden för ägarlägenheter i Öckerö, Stockholm och Karlstad. Studien är en kvalitativ undersökning där relevanta företag från respektive delmarknad har intervjuats.</p><p><em>Resultat </em></p><p>Studiens resultat visar att intresset för ägarlägenheter är övervägande stort på samtliga delmarknader. Det är dock tydligt att det finns en okunskap om ägarlägenheter hos allmänheten och då bankerna i dagsläget saknar rutiner för utlåning skapar det en tröghet på marknaden. Även den nuvarande lagstiftningen som inte tillåter att befintliga bostäder ombildas till ägarlägenheter hämmar etableringen eftersom färre objekt blir aktuella. Slutsatsen av studien är således att marknaden för ägarlägenheter skulle vinna på en utvidgning av lagstiftningen samt en effektivare marknadsföring. <strong></strong></p>

Die Arbeit setzt sich mit der Internationalisierung des Wohnungsmarktes in Deutschland auseinander. Hierbei wird der Frage nachgegangen, wie sich nach dem Komplettverkauf kommunalen Wohneigentums Kommunikation und Zusammenarbeit auf dem Wohnungsmarkt und im Rahmen von Stadtentwicklungsprozessen ändern. Anhand von Fallstudien in Kiel, Osnabrück und Wilhelmshaven werden kommunale und wohnungswirtschaftliche Handlungsstrategien und Interaktionsorientierungen lokaler Akteure miteinander in Beziehung gesetzt. Auch wenn mit Hilfe eines Urban Governance-Ansatzes gewonnene Erkenntnis große Unterschiede bei kommunalen Gestaltungsansprüchen zeigen, ist ein prinzipieller Steuerungsverlust nach der Veräußerung nachweisbar. Vor allem finanzwirtschaftlich orientierte Investoren und ihr geringes investives Interesse führen zu einer nachhaltig geringer werdenden Gestaltungskraft auf Quartiersebene. / Certainly since the late-1990s deregulation as well as local authority debt reduction eventually has begun to take effect on local authority housing. In this context, the owners of public housing sold large quantities of their housing stock as well as whole housing companies. The sale of publicly owned housing property to international investors creates new opportunities for the housing economy due to different approaches to management and marketing. At the same time, sales to ‘new investors’ also bear risks for housing markets, urban renewal and urban planning. In this context, local authorities not only face a growing range of actors with increasingly diversified economic interests. But also, in addition, they are expected to initiate processes of integrated urban development in order to respond to structural change and its consequences. Research into newly emerging and changing relationships between actors in local housing markets is only in its beginnings in the field of regional studies. This work pu rsues as its key question: Following the complete sale of local authority housing stock, how do approaches, communication as well as strategies for collaboration of key actors in the housing markets develop under conditions of structural change? The focus of the comparative empirical case studies rests on the fields of urban development and the housing market. A comparative case study design with a heuristic-descriptive urban governance approach in Kiel, Osnabrück and Wilhelmshaven was chosen. Corresponding to the knowledge from the detailed evaluation, results and conclusions are to be drawn for the praxis and for further research.

This professional report is a study of urban housing market forces, housing opportunities of the critical workforce population, Austin’s housing market and an analysis of the apartment market in Austin between 2000 and 2010. The report analyzes the supply and demand of property, its influence on the costs of development and how cities intervene into the market to create housing opportunities for the critical workforce. The income levels of the critical workforce in Austin are related to the current market conditions of the apartment market. / text

Background Apartment ownership is a popular and well established type of housing in many countries, such as Norway, Denmark and UK. During spring 2009 the Swedish Parliament passed a new legislation which made it possible for apartment ownerships also in Sweden. But apartment ownership has had a slow start, which partly can be explained by the recent recession. Purpose &amp; method The purpose of this paper is to study the market of apartment ownership in Öckerö, Stockholm and Karlstad. The study is a qualitative examination where relevant companies from the submarkets have been interviewed. Result The result of this study shows that the interest for apartment ownership is over all high in all three submarkets. It is yet clear the knowledge about apartment ownership is generally poor among the public, and when the banks still misses proper routines for mortgages, it creates uncertainty, and slows down the market. Furthermore, the existing legislation restricts the establishment because few objects are entitled to be reorganized. The conclusion of this study is thus that the market for apartment ownership would gain on an expansion of the legislation and a more efficient marketing. / Bakgrund Lägenheter med äganderätt är sedan länge en populär och väletablerad boendeform i många länder, som exempelvis i Norge, Danmark och England. Våren år 2009 antog Riksdagen en ny lag som tillåter ägarlägenheter även i Sverige. Boendeformen har dock fått en trög start som delvis kan förklaras av den rådande lågkonjunkturen. Syfte &amp; metod Syftet med studien är att studera marknaden för ägarlägenheter i Öckerö, Stockholm och Karlstad. Studien är en kvalitativ undersökning där relevanta företag från respektive delmarknad har intervjuats. Resultat Studiens resultat visar att intresset för ägarlägenheter är övervägande stort på samtliga delmarknader. Det är dock tydligt att det finns en okunskap om ägarlägenheter hos allmänheten och då bankerna i dagsläget saknar rutiner för utlåning skapar det en tröghet på marknaden. Även den nuvarande lagstiftningen som inte tillåter att befintliga bostäder ombildas till ägarlägenheter hämmar etableringen eftersom färre objekt blir aktuella. Slutsatsen av studien är således att marknaden för ägarlägenheter skulle vinna på en utvidgning av lagstiftningen samt en effektivare marknadsföring.

Population models are very often used and considered useful in the policy-making process and for planning purposes. In this research I have tried to illuminate the problem of analysing population evolution in space by using three models which cover a wide spectrum of complementary methodologies: a The Hotell.ing-Puu model b A multiregional demographic model c A synergetic model Hotelling's work and Puu's later generalization have produced theoretical continuous models treating population growth and dispersal in a combined logistic growth and diffusion equation. The multiregional model is a discrete model based on the Markovian assumption which simulates the population evolution disaggregated by age and region. It is further assumed that this population is governed by a given pattern of growth and interregional mobility. The synergetic model is also a discrete model based on the Markovian assumption incorporating a probabilistic framework with causal structure. The quantitative description of the population dynamics is treated in terms of trend parameters, which are correlated in turn with demo-economic factors. / <p>Diss. Umeå : Umeå universitet, 1988</p> / Digitalisering@umu

Bakgrund: Den senaste tiden har en debatt blossat upp i media om huruvida det är rimligt att bostadsrättsföreningar får tillämpa progressiva avskrivningar och om raka avskrivningar är ett bättre alternativ. Bokföringsnämnden beslöt under våren år 2014 att progressiva avskrivningar inte är en tillämplig avskrivningsmetod för byggnader. I media har många uttalat sig om vad detta kommer få för effekt på marknaden för bostadsrätter, men det har ännu inte utretts ur ett vetenskapligt perspektiv. Syfte: Uppsatsen syftar till att bidra med detta vetenskapliga perspektiv genom att analysera huruvida progressiva avskrivningar är en förutsättning för nyproduktion. I uppsatsen ämnas även undersöka om detta skiljer mellan olika regioner i Sverige. Metod: För att besvara de i syftet ställda problemformuleringarna har en teoretisk modell utvecklats med grundantagandet att köpare av bostadsrätter ska vara indifferenta till vilken avskrivningsmetod som används. Regler och praxis kring avskrivningar i bostadsrättsföreningar har kartlagts för att kunna ge modellen adekvat utformning. Modellens slutresultat visar hur en övergång från progressiva till raka avskrivningar påverkar lönsamheten i nyproduktion av bostadsrätter. En diskussion har förts kring rimligheten i de antaganden som gjorts i modellen och det framtagna resultatet, med utgångspunkt i mikroekonomisk teori och en generell analys av bostadsmarknaden. Slutsats: Enligt de antaganden som gjorts i denna studie och den modell som tagits fram har slutsatsen dragits att de progressiva avskrivningarna på kort sikt är en förutsättning för nyproduktion. Det finns dock ett antal omständigheter som tyder på att reaktionen i verkligheten blir något mildare än vad resultatet från modellen visar. Vidare tycks effektens storlek minska ju högre marknadspriset för bostadsrätter var innan övergången till raka avskrivningar. På lång sikt är inte progressiva avskrivningar en förutsättning för nyproduktion av bostadsrätter. / Background: In Sweden, there has been a recent debate about the reasonability of the use of progressive depreciations by housing cooperatives and if straight line depreciations is a better alternative. The Swedish Accounting Standards Board decided during the spring of 2014 that progressive depreciation is not an applicable depreciation method for buildings. In media, many have discussed the effect on the market for housing cooperative shares but it has not yet been investigated with a scientific perspective. Purpose: The aim of the thesis is to contribute with this scientific perspective by analyzing if progressive depreciations is a prerequisite for production of new dwellings. The thesis is also meant to look into regional differences of this matter. Method: To answer the two problem formulations above, a theoretical model has been developed with the basic assumption that buyers of housing cooperative shares should be indifferent to which depreciation method is applied. Rules and practices of housing cooperative depreciations have been charted in order to make the model adequate. The end result of the model shows how a transition from progressive to straight line depreciation affects the profitability of production of new dwellings. With respect to microeconomic theory and a general analysis of the housing market, a discussion has been carried out about the model assumptions and the model results. Conclusions: According to the used model and its assumptions, the conclusion has been made that progressive depreciations is a short term prerequisite for production of new dwellings. Although, there are circumstances that indicate that the market reaction would be milder than what the model results show. Furthermore, the effect of the depreciation method transition seems to decrease with higher market prices for the housing cooperative shares. In the long term, progressive depreciations is not a prerequisite for production of new dwellings.

This thesis examines residential relocation process within the Seoul Metropolitan Region (SMR) in the Republic of Korea at both a macro and micro level. The thesis makes theoretical and methodological contributions to residential mobility, housing vacancy chains and location choice behaviour in urban geography. The empirical study specifically focused on the relationship between housing opportunity and residential relocation process in the SMR during the 1990s. In developing countries, large scale suburban land and housing development on the fringe of metropolitan areas is seen as an important issue in the process of rapid urbanization and capital accumulation. This is particularly true of Korea where the population of the capital city, Seoul (SCC) has declined since the introduction of massive scale of new suburban housing developments in the 1990s. This is the first time the SCC’s population has decreased in Korean modern history. However there is still debate about the impact of government proposed suburban new housing construction initiatives on residential relocation within the SMR. In addition there remain uncertainties concerning the impact of large suburban housing development on residential relocation behaviour. To date little evaluation of outcomes of the policies has been undertaken, a deficiency which this research seeks to address. Like other capital cities in the developing world, Seoul (SCC) has undergone significant urban expansion throughout its contemporary history, fuelled by the movement of refugees from North Korea in the period immediately following the end of the Korean War (1953) and by significant rural-to-urban, and later by intra urban movement. The SCC, in particular grew significantly, with the metropolitan area of Seoul soon expanding beyond its borders in a process akin to suburbanisation. The rapid urban growth in the Seoul Metropolitan Region (SMR) was accompanied by a series of urban problems including housing shortages, a decline in housing and urban quality, and the concentration of population in large cities, especially in the SCC. To counter these problems the national government in the Republic of Korea initiated a series of policies. Most prominently among these was a massive scale new housing development program initiated in 1988, aimed at developing large scale new satellite cites in Kyonggi, with the objective of decentralising the SCC’s population and thus alleviating an urban housing shortage. This research focuses on two main issues charactering contemporary housing and land development policies in the SMR. The first relates to government efforts to redirect migration from the capital city, Seoul, to the outlying jurisdictions of Kyonggi and Inchon in an attempt to diffuse the concentration of population in the SCC and to alleviate housing shortages. The second issue concerns the determinants of residential mobility and residential location choice behaviour in the SMR. Mirroring the two issues, two approaches have been used to address these issues: a macro level study of residential relocation and a micro behavioural analysis. At macro level the research attempts to measure the impact of new housing developments on easing urban housing markets in the SMR during the 1990s, notwithstanding the continuous population movement from other regions in the Republic of Korea. The macro investigation addresses the questions: • What are the changes in spatial mobility patterns occurring in the SMR since the introduction of government’s suburban residential developments? • Are the size of housing vacancy chains different by spatial mobility patterns among the three regional housing markets in the SMR? Multi-regional vacancy chain models are used to examine whether vacant housing opportunity spills over into neighbouring regions in the SMR, particularly the city of Seoul. The models focus mainly on the structural determinants of household mobility, such as local new housing construction, household formation, household mobility rate and demolition rate, and their role in creating and absorbing vacant housing opportunities in the three jurisdictions comprising the SMR: Seoul (SCC), Kyonggi and Inchon. The vacancy chain analysis uses a Markov chain model and Leontief input-output model to assess the impact of these structural differentials on household mobility in the multiregional system of the SMR. This macro study provides a structural framework for the subsequent micro behavioural approach to residential mobility occurring in the SMR. The micro behavioural approach investigates the following questions: • What are the socio demographic profiles of people who relocate within the SMR?’ • What are the housing transitions that occur after moving to regions of the SCC in the SMR? • What are the reasons households give for moving within the SMR? This micro approach focuses on the behavioural aspects of residential mobility decision process as influenced by age, marital status, employment status, education level, duration of residence, dwelling size and tenure status. Apart from the mover’s socio demographic profile, the study further investigates longitudinal housing transitions before and after a move by their origin and destination within the SMR, particularly those movers who relocated to suburban rings (Kyonggi/Inchon). However the reasons for movers to choose a particular location vary and they are socio demographically diverse. The research also discusses these behavioural reasons for moving within the SMR.

This thesis examines residential relocation process within the Seoul Metropolitan Region (SMR) in the Republic of Korea at both a macro and micro level. The thesis makes theoretical and methodological contributions to residential mobility, housing vacancy chains and location choice behaviour in urban geography. The empirical study specifically focused on the relationship between housing opportunity and residential relocation process in the SMR during the 1990s. In developing countries, large scale suburban land and housing development on the fringe of metropolitan areas is seen as an important issue in the process of rapid urbanization and capital accumulation. This is particularly true of Korea where the population of the capital city, Seoul (SCC) has declined since the introduction of massive scale of new suburban housing developments in the 1990s. This is the first time the SCC’s population has decreased in Korean modern history. However there is still debate about the impact of government proposed suburban new housing construction initiatives on residential relocation within the SMR. In addition there remain uncertainties concerning the impact of large suburban housing development on residential relocation behaviour. To date little evaluation of outcomes of the policies has been undertaken, a deficiency which this research seeks to address. Like other capital cities in the developing world, Seoul (SCC) has undergone significant urban expansion throughout its contemporary history, fuelled by the movement of refugees from North Korea in the period immediately following the end of the Korean War (1953) and by significant rural-to-urban, and later by intra urban movement. The SCC, in particular grew significantly, with the metropolitan area of Seoul soon expanding beyond its borders in a process akin to suburbanisation. The rapid urban growth in the Seoul Metropolitan Region (SMR) was accompanied by a series of urban problems including housing shortages, a decline in housing and urban quality, and the concentration of population in large cities, especially in the SCC. To counter these problems the national government in the Republic of Korea initiated a series of policies. Most prominently among these was a massive scale new housing development program initiated in 1988, aimed at developing large scale new satellite cites in Kyonggi, with the objective of decentralising the SCC’s population and thus alleviating an urban housing shortage. This research focuses on two main issues charactering contemporary housing and land development policies in the SMR. The first relates to government efforts to redirect migration from the capital city, Seoul, to the outlying jurisdictions of Kyonggi and Inchon in an attempt to diffuse the concentration of population in the SCC and to alleviate housing shortages. The second issue concerns the determinants of residential mobility and residential location choice behaviour in the SMR. Mirroring the two issues, two approaches have been used to address these issues: a macro level study of residential relocation and a micro behavioural analysis. At macro level the research attempts to measure the impact of new housing developments on easing urban housing markets in the SMR during the 1990s, notwithstanding the continuous population movement from other regions in the Republic of Korea. The macro investigation addresses the questions: • What are the changes in spatial mobility patterns occurring in the SMR since the introduction of government’s suburban residential developments? • Are the size of housing vacancy chains different by spatial mobility patterns among the three regional housing markets in the SMR? Multi-regional vacancy chain models are used to examine whether vacant housing opportunity spills over into neighbouring regions in the SMR, particularly the city of Seoul. The models focus mainly on the structural determinants of household mobility, such as local new housing construction, household formation, household mobility rate and demolition rate, and their role in creating and absorbing vacant housing opportunities in the three jurisdictions comprising the SMR: Seoul (SCC), Kyonggi and Inchon. The vacancy chain analysis uses a Markov chain model and Leontief input-output model to assess the impact of these structural differentials on household mobility in the multiregional system of the SMR. This macro study provides a structural framework for the subsequent micro behavioural approach to residential mobility occurring in the SMR. The micro behavioural approach investigates the following questions: • What are the socio demographic profiles of people who relocate within the SMR?’ • What are the housing transitions that occur after moving to regions of the SCC in the SMR? • What are the reasons households give for moving within the SMR? This micro approach focuses on the behavioural aspects of residential mobility decision process as influenced by age, marital status, employment status, education level, duration of residence, dwelling size and tenure status. Apart from the mover’s socio demographic profile, the study further investigates longitudinal housing transitions before and after a move by their origin and destination within the SMR, particularly those movers who relocated to suburban rings (Kyonggi/Inchon). However the reasons for movers to choose a particular location vary and they are socio demographically diverse. The research also discusses these behavioural reasons for moving within the SMR.