Prestressed concrete is a popular construction material for highway bridges. A variety of girder span values, cross-sectional shapes, and prestressing strand layouts has been used in bridges across the United States. A major concern for such bridges is the possibility of corrosion damage in the prestressing strands or reinforcing bars, which is commonly caused by the use of deicing salts on the deck or saltwater spray in coastal regions. The present study aims at establishing analytical tools for the accurate simulation of chloride ingress, corrosion and mechanical damage (cracking) in the concrete, and for the evaluation of the impact of corrosion on the flexural and shear strength of bridge girders. First, an efficient and accurate analytical scheme is formulated to enable the calculation of the load-carrying capacity of corrosion-damaged girders. The analyses rely on two types of models, namely, beam models and nonlinear truss models. The latter are deemed necessary to obtain reliable estimates of the shear capacity, as beam models are not well-tailored for capturing shear failures. A procedure to account for the reduction in area and deformability of corroded strands, based on visually observed corrosion damage, is proposed and implemented. The models are calibrated and validated with the results of experimental tests on prestressed girders which exhibited varying levels of corrosion damage. Further analyses allow the comparison of the capacity of corrosion-damaged girders to that of their undamaged counterparts. The accuracy of a simplified procedure, using equations in the AASHTO code to determine the flexural and shear capacity of the damaged girders, is also determined. Subsequently, a computation scheme was proposed to describe the intrusion of chloride ions in prestressed bridge girder sections. The approach accounts for multiple, coupled processes, i.e., heat transfer, moisture transport, and chloride advective and diffusive transport. The constitutive models for moisture and chloride transport rely on previous pertinent work, with several necessary enhancements. The modeling scheme is calibrated with data from previous experimental tests on concrete cylindrical and prismatic specimens. The calibrated models are then validated using data from chloride titration tests conducted on girders removed from two bridges in Virginia after 34 and 49 years of service. The results indicate that the proposed framework can accurately reproduce the experimentally measured chloride content. The modeling approach also allows the evaluation of the accuracy of simplified, design-oriented tools for estimating the evolution of chloride content with time. The multi-physics simulation scheme is further refined to account for the corrosion-induced mechanical damage (cracking), by incorporating a phenomenological description of the electrochemical reaction kinetics, generation of expansive corrosion products, and subsequent development of tensile stresses and cracking in the surrounding concrete. The impact of cracking on the chloride and moisture transport mechanisms is also taken into account. The last part of this dissertation pursues the quantification of the uncertainty governing the chloride ingress in bridge girders, through the use of a stochastic collocation approach. The focus is on understanding how the inherent uncertainty in the value of input parameters (e.g., material transport parameters, ambient conditions etc.) is propagated, leading to uncertainty in the evolution of chloride content and the expected corrosion initiation time for a given bridge. / Doctor of Philosophy / Prestressed concrete is widely utilized in the construction of highway bridges in the United States. A significant concern arises regarding potential corrosion damage in the prestressing strands or reinforcing bars, which is commonly attributed to the application of deicing salts on the deck or exposure to saltwater spray in coastal regions. This study aims to develop analytical tools that can accurately simulate the intrusion of corrosive agents (namely chloride ions), and subsequent damage (cracking) in concrete. Furthermore, the research seeks to assess the impact of corrosion on the bearing capacity of bridge girders. Two different classes of analytical approaches are pursued. The first class employs purely mechanical (stress/deformation) models for capturing the strength, deformability and failure modes of girders with visual corrosion damage. These models rely on two approaches to capture the flexural and shear capacity of specimens, namely, beam-based models and truss-based models. The impact of corrosion is established through appropriate modification of the model parameters, based on the extent of visually observed corrosion damage. The analytical approaches are validated through a series of experimental tests previously conducted on corrosion-damaged girders. The second class of analytical approaches employs multi-physics models, to describe the mechanisms leading to corrosion-induced damage. The models account for heat transfer, moisture transport, and chloride transport in prestressed beam sections. Model parameters are calibrated with experimental tests in literature. The computational scheme is used to quantitatively describe the chloride ingress on bridge girders decommissioned from two different bridges in Virginia, after 34 and 49 years of service. The analysis results are found capable of capturing the actual chloride content at various depths from the exposure surface, as determined by chloride titration tests. The temporal evolution of chloride on the surface of prestressing strands indicates that corrosion has been taking place over a period of time for the two bridges. The multi-physics simulation approach is further enhanced to account for the corrosion-induced mechanical damage (cracking), by explicitly incorporating a description of the reaction kinetics, generation of expansive corrosion products and subsequent development of cracking in the surrounding concrete. The last part of this dissertation pursues the quantification of the uncertainty in the expected service life of prestressed concrete bridge structures. Given the inherent uncertainty to key values of model parameters, a parametric study is employed to investigate the propagation of uncertainty to the time history of chloride content at particular locations of the section and the probability of corrosion initiation at specific age values.

Förlorad biologisk mångfald är ett av de största hoten mot vår planet, och i sötvatten har populationer av migrerande fiskarter minskat med 76 % sedan 70-talet. Ålen är en art som hotas av utrotning på grund av antropogen inverkan, framför allt på grund av kraftverksdammar som fragmenterar habitat och förhindrar artens livsnödvändiga migration upp- och nedströms vattendrag genom avsaknad av passagelösningar. Syftet med studien var att undersöka möjligheten att vidareutveckla ålpassagelösningar med substratet EF-16, detta genom att testa klättringsframgången för glasålar vid två olika passageramper och två olika flöden (3 l/min och 9 l/min). Varje passagelösning bestod av fyra passageramper positionerade i bredd, med EF-16 monterat varannan ramp antingen rakt eller lateralt v-format. Resultatet från studien visade att de optimerade v-formade passageramperna gav signifikant fler klättringar vid höga flöden, samt att placeringen av ramperna också hade signifikant betydelse för valet av ramp. Kroppsvikten för ålar hade däremot ingen effekt för passageframgången. Denna studie betonar vikten av framtagandet av effektiva passagelösningar för glasålar som fungerar vid stora variationer av flöde vid kraftverksdammar. Genom att fler ålar kan migrera uppströms vattendrag förbi kraftverksdammar till sina uppväxtområden, kan förhoppningsvis ålstammen räddas. / Biodiversity loss is one of the biggest threats to our planet, and in freshwater, populations of migratory fish species have declined by 76% since the 1970s. The eel is a species threatened with extinction due to anthropogenic impact, mainly due to power plant dams that fragment habitat and prevent the species' vital migration up and down streams through lack of passage solutions. The purpose of the study was to investigate the possibility of further developing eel passage solutions with the substrate EF-16, by testing the climbing success of glass eels at two different passage ramps and at two different flows (3 l/min and 9 l/min). Each passage solution consisted of four passage ramps positioned widthwise, with EF-16 mounted either flat or lateral v-shaped every other ramp. The study shows that the optimized v-shaped passage ramps gave significantly more climbs at high flows, and that the location of the ramps also had a significant impact on the choice of ramp. The body weight of eels, on the other hand, had no effect on passage success. This study emphasizes the importance of the development of efficient passage solutions for glass eels that can be applied at large variations in flow at power plant dams. By allowing more eels to migrate upstream watercourses past hydropower plants to their spawning grounds, the eel population can hopefully be saved. / Optimerade passagelösningar för ål, 52096-1

This thesis is written as a cumulative dissertation based on peer-reviewed papers and supplemented by yet unpublished results. It presents methods and results that contribute to a novel approach for estimating water storage within the soil-water-plant system at a single site or in a small catchment (< 100 km2). The focus is on estimating the current/pre-event condition of a study area using simulated soil moisture and applying it as an indicator for flash flood forecasting. These two steps were combined in a semi-automatic framework that was used as a tool for flash flood monitoring after the Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) concept. This includes catchments for which Hydro-meteorological data and reliable site characteristics are not available. The overall objective was to demonstrate the capabilities and limitations of the regionally applicable modeling framework based on a lumped-physical model and open-source input data. The questions to be answered are: How reliable are the model outputs estimated by an uncalibrated-lumped model based on regional parameterization and forcing data? What are the potential uncertainties and limitations of such a framework? What are the potential applications of water storage in flood monitoring? The data were derived from freely available datasets. Meteorological input data can come from various sensor networks integrated in an open sensor web, mainly from the German Meteorological Service (DWD) and e.g., the forest climate stations of Sachsenforst. The model description required datasets for elevation (10 m, State Office for Environment, Agriculture and Geology-LfULG), land cover (Copernicus: Land Cover 100m), soil characteristics (BK50, LfULG) and soil profiles from the German National Forest Inventory (NFI). In addition, satellite-based soil moisture product (SMAP-L4-GPH from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration-NASA), water gauges data (LfULG) and eddy covariance flux cluster sites of the chair Meteorology at TU Dresden were used for validation. The first publication provides the framework and elaborates on the integration of a model into the open-data platform. The BROOK90 model (R version) was embedded in an open sensor web to estimate daily water balance components for more than 6,000 (sub-) catchments in Saxony. The model performance was validated with stream gauge observations in ten selected head catchments for discharge and with SMAP-L4-GPH for evapotranspiration and soil moisture. The results indicate that the framework is able to provide reliable soil retention estimates in high resolution. The second publication addresses the potential use of radar precipitation in this framework. Here the focus is on examining long-term radar-derived precipitation to improve water balance estimates due to its advantages in spatial coverage. The DWD’s re-analysis radar product, RADKLIM, was applied and aggregated for daily model input. A comparison between radar and rain gauge precipitation was performed to evaluate the quality of the product at the study sites, including the compensation for the catch loss in precipitation using the Richter correction. The results show the satisfactory performance of the framework with radar precipitation. The third publication demonstrates the application of model output to flood warnings. FFG was modified and applied to estimate rainfall thresholds considering the effects of antecedent soil moisture. Once rainfall threshold curves are calculated, only information on rainfall and soil moisture information is needed to issue a warning of a potential flash flood. The method was applied in the Wernersbach catchment in the Tharandt Forest and validated with historical events. The results of the contingency table show the potential of this tool for flash flood warning, but it should be tested with other rainfall runoff models and more catchments prone to flash floods.:Abstract/Zusammenfassung/Tóm tắt 1. Introduction 1.1 Motivation and scope 1.2 Problem formulation 1.3 Target setting 1.4 Structure of the thesis 2. Adjusted Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) framework 2.2 Terminology and definitions 2.2.1 Flash flood 2.2.2 Small catchment 2.3 FFG concept 2.4 Adjusted FFG framework 3. Core publications of the PhD thesis 4. Major findings 5. Conclusions and outlook References List of Abbreviations List of figures List of the author’s publication Appendixes including the core publications Erklärung / Die vorliegende Arbeit ist eine kumulative Dissertation, die auf begutachteten Arbeiten basiert und durch bisher unveröffentlichte Ergebnisse ergänzt wird. Sie stellt Methoden und Ergebnisse vor, die zu einem neuartigen Ansatz zur Abschätzung der Wasserspeicherung im System Boden-Wasser-Pflanze an einem einzelnen Standort oder in einem kleinen Einzugsgebiet (< 100 km2) beitragen. Der Schwerpunkt liegt auf der Abschätzung des aktuellen/vor einem Ereignis herrschenden Zustands eines Untersuchungsgebiets unter Verwendung simulierter Bodenfeuchte und deren Anwendung als Indikator für die Vorhersage von Sturzfluten. Diese beiden Schritte wurden in einem halbautomatischen Modell zusammengefasst, das als Werkzeug für die Überwachung von Sturzfluten nach dem Konzept des Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) verwendet wird. Dies schließt Standorte/Einzugsgebiete ein, für die keine hydrometeorologischen Daten und/oder zuverlässige Standortmerkmale verfügbar sind. Das Gesamtziel bestand darin, die Fähigkeiten und Grenzen des regional anwendbaren Modells auf der Grundlage eines pauschalen physikalischen Modells und von Open-Source-Eingangsdaten zu demonstrieren. Die zu beantwortenden Fragen lauten: Wie zuverlässig sind die von einem unkalibrierten eindimensionalen Modell auf der Grundlage regionaler Parametrisierungs- und Antriebsdaten geschätzten Modellergebnisse? Was sind die potenziellen Unsicherheiten und Grenzen eines solchen Modells? Welches sind die möglichen Anwendungen der simulierten Komponenten des Wasserhaushalts bei der Überwachung von Hochwasser? Die Daten werden aus frei verfügbaren Datensätzen abgeleitet. Die meteorologischen Eingangsdaten stammen aus verschiedenen Sensornetzwerken, die in einem Open Sensor Web integriert sind, hauptsächlich vom Deutschen Wetterdienst (DWD) und z.B. den Waldklimastationen von Sachsenforst. Für die Modellbeschreibung wurden Datensätze für Geländehöhe (10 m, Landesamt für Umwelt, Landwirtschaft und Geologie - LfULG), Landbedeckung (Copernicus: Land Cover 100m), Bodeneigenschaften (BK50, LfULG) und Bodenprofile aus der Bundeswaldinventur (BWI) benötigt. Darüber hinaus werden satellitengestützte Bodenfeuchteprodukte (SMAP-L4-GPH der National Aeronautics and Space Administration-NASA), Pegeldaten (LfULG) und Eddy-Kovarianz-Flusscluster-Standorte des Lehrstuhls für Meteorologie der TU Dresden zur Validierung verwendet. Die erste Veröffentlichung liefert den Rahmen und erläutert die Integration eines Modells in die offene Datenplattform. Das Modell BROOK90 (R-Version) wurde in ein offenes Sensornetz eingebettet, um tägliche Wasserhaushaltskomponenten für mehr als 6,000 (Teil-)Einzugsgebiete in Sachsen zu schätzen. Die Leistung des Modells wurde anhand von Pegelbeobachtungen in zehn ausgewählten Einzugsgebieten für den Abfluss und mit SMAP-L4-GPH für die Evapotranspiration und Bodenfeuchte validiert. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass das System in der Lage ist, zuverlässige Schätzungen der Bodenretention in hoher Auflösung zu liefern. Die zweite Veröffentlichung befasst sich mit der möglichen Nutzung von Radarniederschlägen in diesem Rahmen. Hier liegt der Schwerpunkt auf der Untersuchung des langfristigen, vom Radar abgeleiteten Niederschlags zur Verbesserung der Wasserbilanzschätzungen aufgrund seiner Vorteile bei der räumlichen Abdeckung. Das Reanalyse-Radarprodukt des DWD, RADKLIM, wurde verwendet und für tägliche Modelleingaben aggregiert. Es wurde ein Vergleich zwischen Radar- und Regenmesser-Niederschlag durchgeführt, um die Qualität des Produkts an den Untersuchungsstandorten zu bewerten, einschließlich der Kompensation des Niederschlagsverlusts durch die Richter-Korrektur. Die Ergebnisse zeigen die zufriedenstellende Leistung des Rahmens mit Radarniederschlag. Die dritte Veröffentlichung demonstriert die Anwendung der Modelldaten auf Hochwasserwarnungen. Der Leitfaden für Sturzflutwarnungen wurde modifiziert und zur Schätzung der Niederschlagsschwellen unter Berücksichtigung der Auswirkungen der vorherrschenden Bodenfeuchte angewandt. Sobald die Niederschlagsschwellenkurven berechnet sind, werden nur noch Informationen über Niederschlag und Bodenfeuchte benötigt, um eine Warnung vor einer möglichen Sturzflut auszusprechen. Die Methode wurde im Einzugsgebiet des Wernersbachs und im Tharandter Wald angewandt und mit historischen Ereignissen validiert. Die Ergebnisse der Kontingenztabelle zeigen das Potenzial dieses Werkzeugs für die Sturzflutwarnung, es sollte jedoch mit anderen Niederschlagsabflussmodellen und weiteren Einzugsgebieten, die für Sturzfluten anfällig sind, getestet werden.:Abstract/Zusammenfassung/Tóm tắt 1. Introduction 1.1 Motivation and scope 1.2 Problem formulation 1.3 Target setting 1.4 Structure of the thesis 2. Adjusted Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) framework 2.2 Terminology and definitions 2.2.1 Flash flood 2.2.2 Small catchment 2.3 FFG concept 2.4 Adjusted FFG framework 3. Core publications of the PhD thesis 4. Major findings 5. Conclusions and outlook References List of Abbreviations List of figures List of the author’s publication Appendixes including the core publications Erklärung / Luận án tiến sĩ này được viết như một luận án tích lũy dựa trên các bài báo đã được bình duyệt và được bổ sung bởi các kết quả chưa được công bố. Nó trình bày các phương pháp và kết quả góp phần vào một cách tiếp cận mới để ước tính trữ lượng nước trong hệ thống đất-nước- thực vật tại một địa điểm hoặc trong một lưu vực nhỏ (<100 km2). Trọng tâm là ước tính tình trạng hiện tại / trước sự kiện của khu vực nghiên cứu bằng cách sử dụng độ ẩm đất mô phỏng và áp dụng nó như một chỉ báo để dự báo lũ quét. Hai bước này được kết hợp trong một khuôn khổ bán tự động được sử dụng như một công cụ để giám sát lũ quét dựa theo khái niệm Hướng dẫn về lũ quét (FFG). Điều này bao gồm các địa điểm / lưu vực không có sẵn dữ liệu khí tượng thủy văn và / hoặc các đặc điểm thiếu thông tin mô tả chia tiết đáng tin cậy. Mục tiêu tổng thể là chứng minh các khả năng và hạn chế của khung mô hình áp dụng trong khu vực dựa trên một mô hình vật lý tổng hợp và dữ liệu đầu vào nguồn mở. Các câu hỏi cần được trả lời là: Các kết quả đầu ra của mô hình được ước tính bằng một mô hình gộp chưa hiệu chỉnh dựa trên tham số vùng và dữ liệu đáng tin cậy đến mức nào? Những điểm không chắc chắn và hạn chế tiềm ẩn của một khuôn khổ như vậy là gì? Các ứng dụng tiềm năng của thành phần cân bằng nước mô phỏng trong giám sát lũ lụt là gì? Dữ liệu được lấy từ các bộ dữ liệu miễn phí và có sẵn. Dữ liệu đầu vào về khí tượng đến từ các mạng cảm biến khác nhau được tích hợp trong một Open Sensor Web, chủ yếu từ Cơ quan Khí tượng Đức (DWD) và các trạm khí hậu rừng của Sachsenforst. Mô tả mô hình yêu cầu bộ dữ liệu về độ cao (10 m, Văn phòng bang về Môi trường, Nông nghiệp và Địa chất-LfULG), lớp phủ đất (Copernicus: Land Cover 100m), đặc điểm của đất (BK50, LfULG) và cấu hình đất từ Kiểm kê Rừng Quốc gia Đức (NFI). Ngoài ra, sản phẩm độ ẩm của đất dựa trên vệ tinh (SMAP-L4-GPH từ Cơ quan Hàng không và Vũ trụ Quốc gia-NASA), dữ liệu các trạm thủy văn (LfULG) và các cụm địa điểm eddy covariance được giám sát bởi khoa Khí tượng học tại TU Dresden được sử dụng để xác nhận kết quả mô hình đầu ra. Ấn phẩm đầu tiên cung cấp khuôn khổ và trình bày chi tiết về việc tích hợp một mô hình vào nền tảng dữ liệu mở. Mô hình BROOK90 (phiên bản R) được nhúng vào một trang web cảm biến mở để ước tính các thành phần cân bằng nước hàng ngày cho hơn 6000 lưu vực (phụ) ở Sachsen. Hiệu suất của mô hình đã được xác nhận với các quan sát bằng dữ liệu dòng chảy ở mười lưu vực đầu nguồn được chọn và với SMAP-L4-GPH cho thành phần thoát hơi nước và độ ẩm của đất. Kết quả chỉ ra rằng khung có thể cung cấp các ước tính đáng tin cậy về khả năng giữ nước của đất ở độ phân giải cao. Ấn phẩm thứ hai đề cập đến khả năng sử dụng lượng mưa radar trong khuôn khổ này. Ở đây, trọng tâm là kiểm tra lượng mưa dài hạn có nguồn gốc từ radar để cải thiện ước tính cân bằng nước do lợi thế của nó trong phạm vi bao phủ không gian. Sản phẩm radar phân tích lại của DWD, RADKLIM, đã được áp dụng và tổng hợp để nhập mô hình hàng ngày. So sánh giữa lượng mưa bằng radar và máy đo mưa đã được thực hiện để đánh giá chất lượng của sản phẩm tại các điểm nghiên cứu, bao gồm cả việc bù đắp cho lượng mưa thất thoát bằng cách sử dụng hiệu chỉnh độ Richter. Kết quả cho thấy hiệu suất khả quan của khung với lượng mưa radar. Ấn phẩm thứ ba trình bày việc áp dụng đầu ra mô hình để cảnh báo lũ lụt. Hướng dẫn về lũ quét đã được sửa đổi và áp dụng để ước tính ngưỡng lượng mưa xem xét ảnh hưởng của độ ẩm đất trước đây. Khi đường cong ngưỡng mưa được tính toán, chỉ cần thông tin về lượng mưa và thông tin về độ ẩm của đất để đưa ra cảnh báo về khả năng xảy ra lũ quét. Phương pháp này đã được áp dụng ở lưu vực Wernersbach, trong Rừng Tharandt và được xác nhận với các sự kiện lịch sử. Kết quả của bảng dự phòng cho thấy tiềm năng của công cụ này để cảnh báo lũ quét, nhưng nó nên được thử nghiệm với các mô hình dòng chảy lượng mưa khác và các lưu vực dễ xảy ra lũ quét hơn.:Abstract/Zusammenfassung/Tóm tắt 1. Introduction 1.1 Motivation and scope 1.2 Problem formulation 1.3 Target setting 1.4 Structure of the thesis 2. Adjusted Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) framework 2.2 Terminology and definitions 2.2.1 Flash flood 2.2.2 Small catchment 2.3 FFG concept 2.4 Adjusted FFG framework 3. Core publications of the PhD thesis 4. Major findings 5. Conclusions and outlook References List of Abbreviations List of figures List of the author’s publication Appendixes including the core publications Erklärung

Climate change is affecting several environmental factors and together with socio-economic changes put high pressure on water resources. Climate change manifest itself through increasing temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns and intensities, with knock-on effects on hydrologically-relevant parameters such as water flows, evapotranspiration rates, glacial melt etcetera, all of which have already been observed in the recent past and are predicted to continue in the future. India has the world’s second largest population. The majority of the population live in rural areas and are dependent on climate sensitive sectors such as agriculture, forestry and fishery. The Indian-Himalayan region supplies 600 million people with water, thus future climate change impacts on the hydrological cycle in the area are of great interest and concern. In order to cope with these predicted impacts, there is a need to adapt to the changing climate. This study combines data analyses from a hydro-climatic modelling campaign (carried out externally to this thesis), a literature review on climate change effects on agriculture and opportunities to adapt to these effects and participatory methods bringing stakeholders and scientists together in order to co-create adaptation options that are suitable to minimise short- and long-term climate change impacts on the water flows of the Ganges and hence agriculture in the region. The study concentrates on two districts in the Indo-Gangetic Plain that are characterised by their high dependency on the farming sector: Uttarkashi (upstream Ganges, Uttarakhand) and Patna (downstream Ganges, Bihar). The analysis of hydro-climatic data based on a modelling campaign focussed on three climate variables that are of significance for agriculture: precipitation, temperature, and evapotranspiration. To characterise future climates, four climate change projections based on IPCC’s representative concentrations pathways (RCPs) have been chosen: RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5. The impacts of these scenarios on the above listed three climate variables are analysed over three time periods: 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100, with a special focus on the monsoon months from June to October, as this is the main crop (rice) growing season. The results from the hydro-climatic modelling indicate that the maximum, minimum, and average temperature will be increasing over the next century in both districts. An increase in evapotranspiration can be seen for both districts, with a few exceptions for RCP scenarios 2.6, 6.0 and 8.5 in April and May in Patna, and for all RCP scenarios in April, May and June in Uttarkashi. An increase in maximum and average precipitation can be seen for most RCP scenarios and future time periods (e.g. of exceptions in average precipitation: RCP 4.5 and 8.5 in June and July in the period 2011-2040) during the monsoon period in Patna. Similarly, in Uttarkashi maximum and average precipitation increases for all three time periods and RCP scenarios during the monsoon months of September and August (only for RCP scenarios 2.6 and 8.5). For the remaining months, the precipitation patterns show great variability for all scenarios and both regions. The literature review resulted in a table of adaptation options, where nine out of 63 were considered as transformational adaptation, and enabled identification of possible climate change impacts on agriculture in the two districts. The minimum temperature could result in more severe and intense hailstorms in the future for both districts. The increase in temperature could lead to a prolonged growing season in Uttarkashi, whilst the increase in average and maximum temperature in Patna could lead to heat-stress for the crops. Furthermore, the increase in average and maximum precipitation could lead to more severe and intense natural disasters e.g. landslides in Uttarkashi and floods in Patna. Moreover, the increase in average evapotranspiration combined with the decrease in average precipitation during some months could lead to an increasing need of irrigation. Two workshops were held in the region with the aim to bring together researchers and stakeholders (e.g. famers) in order to jointly discuss 1) the suitability of hydrological modelling data for preparing the agriculture sector to a changing climate, and 2) suggest suitable adaptation options based on researchers’ and stakeholders’ knowledge and experience. Information from the first workshop was obtained by a workshop report, whilst information from the second workshop was obtained from the author’s own participation. The result from the workshop showed that the farmers had several suggestions of suitable adaptation options e.g. implementation of irrigation system and improved access to credit. It also showed that the farmers already adapted to climate change e.g. usage of short- and long duration variations of rice and sowing date adjustment. The combination of these results informed the suggestions for adaptation options for the two districts, namely the development of disaster reduction plans and early warning systems for weather extremes, as well as a diversification of agriculture and more generally livelihoods. In addition, indirect adaptation measures suggested for both districts included insurance schemes against yield failure, improved access to credit schemes, and right/fair market prices. Specific measures for each district were also suggested e.g. heat-tolerant crops in Patna and implementation or irrigation systems in Uttarkashi. / Klimatförändringarna påverkar åtskilliga miljöfaktorer och tillsammans med socioekonomiska förändringar sätter de stort tryck på vattenresurser. Klimatförändringar manifesterar sig i stigande temperaturer och ändrade nederbördsmönster och nederbördsintensitet, med påföljande effekter på hydrologiskt relevanta parametrar så som vattenflöden, evapotranspirationsvärden, smältande glaciärer etcetera, vilka alla är effekter som redan observerats och är förutspådda att fortsätta under innevarande århundrande. Befolkningen i Indien är näst störst i världen. Större delen av befolkningen i Indien bor på landsbygden och är beroende av klimatkänsliga sektorer så som jordbruk, fiske och skogsbruk. Indiska Himalaya förser 600 miljoner människor med vatten, framtida effekter på den hydrologiska cykeln, orsakade av klimatförändringarna i området, är därför av största intresse. För att kunna hantera de framtida effekterna orsakade av klimatförändringarna är det viktigt att implementera klimatanpassningsstrategier. Den här studien kombinerar data analyser från en hydro-klimatisk modelleringskampanj (som är genomförd externt till det här arbetet), litteraturstudie över effekter på jordbruk orsakade av klimatförändringar och möjligheter att anpassa sig till dessa förändringar, samt involverar preferenser och kunskaper från intressenter inom det aktuella området för att kunna identifiera lämpliga klimatanpassningsstrategier. Studien har ett huvudfokus på klimatanpassning för jordbruksområden i två distrikt i Indien: Uttarkashi (uppströms Ganges, Uttarakhand) och Patna (nedströms Ganges, Bihar). Analysen av hydro-klimatisk data, baserad på en modelleringskampanj, fokuserar på tre klimatvariabler som är av betydelse för jordbrukssektor: nederbörd, temperatur, och evapotranspiration. För att kunna karakterisera framtida klimat har IPCCs fyra representativa koncentrationsvägar (RCPs) tagits hänsyn till: RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, och RCP 8.5. Effekterna av dessa scenarier på de tre ovan listade klimatvariablerna är analyserade över tre framtida tidsperioder: 2011-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100, med ett speciellt fokus på monsunperioden från juni till oktober. Resultatet från analysen av hydro-klimatisk data indikerar en ökning under århundrandet i minimal, maximal, och genomsnittlig temperatur i båda distrikten. En ökning i evapotranspiration för båda distrikten kunde också identifieras, med några få undantag för RCP 2.6, 6.0 och 8.5 i april och maj i Patna, samt för alla RCP scenarier i april, maj och juni för Uttarkashi. Trender i nederbörd visar en ökning i maximal och genomsnittlig nederbörd för nästan alla scenarier under monsunperioden i Patna (exempel på scenarier där den genomsnittliga nederbörden inte ökar är RCP 4.5 och 8.5 i juni och juli under perioden 2011-2040). En ökning i maximal och genomsnittlig nederbörd identifierades i september för alla RCP scenarier och framtidsperioder, samt i augusti för RCP 2.6 och 8.5 i Uttarkashi. Kvarvarande månader visar på stor variabilitet i nederbörd för alla scenarier i båda distrikten. Litteraturstudien resulterade i en tabell med klimatanpassningsstrategier, där nio av 63 ansågs vara transformerande, samt identifierade möjliga effekter på jordbruket i de två distrikten orsakade av klimatförändringar. Ökningen i minimal temperatur kan leda till mer allvarliga och intensifierade hagelstormar i framtiden. Temperaturökningen kan i Uttarkashi leda till förlängd odlingssäsong medan ökningen i genomsnittlig och maximal temperatur kan leda till värmestress på grödorna i Patna. Vidare gäller att ökningen i maximal och genomsnittlig nederbörd kan leda till mer allvarliga naturkatastrofer i framtiden som exempelvis jordskred i Uttarkashi och översvämningar i Patna. Ökningen i evapotranspiration kombinerat med minskningen i genomsnittlig nederbörd under vissa månader skulle kunna leda till ett ökat bevattningsbehov. Två ”worskhops” anordnades i regionen med målet att sammanföra forskare och intressenter (exempelvis bönder) för att gemensamt diskutera 1) lämpligheten av användandet av hydrologiskt modellerad data för att förbereda jordbruket på klimatförändringar, och 2) föreslå lämpliga klimatanpassningsstrategier baserat på forskarnas och intressenternas kunskap och erfarenheter. Informationen från den första workshopen erhölls genom en workshoprapport, medan informationen i den andra workshopen erhölls genom författarens eget deltagande i workshopen. Resultatet från workshopen visade på att bönderna hade flertalet egna föreslag vad gäller lämpliga klimatanpassningsstrategier så som exempelvis implementerande av bevattningssystem och ökade kreditmöjligheter. Bönderna hade även börjat anpassa sig till klimatförändringar genom exempelvis ha lång- och korttids variationer av ris samt att de hade flyttat på datumet för sådden. Kombinationen av hydro-klimatisk data, litteratur och intressentpreferenser och kunskap möjliggjorde förslag på klimatanpassningsstrategier i de två distrikten. Strategier för att reducera skador på grödor och jordbruksmark orsakade av extrema händelser, varningssystem som varnar i ett tidigt skede, och diversifiering av försörjning är direkta klimatanpassningsstrategier som identifierades för båda distrikten. Försäkringslösningar, ökade kreditmöjligheter, och ett rättvist marknadspris var indirekta anpassningsstrategier som identifierats för båda distrikten. Även specifika anpassningsstrategier för respektive distrikt har identifierats, där exempelvis värme-tåliga grödor identifierades som viktigt för Patna och implementering av bevattningssystem identifierades som extra viktigt för Uttarkashi.

In the future, hydropower plants are expected to operate more flexibly. This will lead to a more varied operation of the turbine and the generator, such as more start and stop in order to stabilise the frequency in the grid. Studies show that these transient operations are more costly in terms of fatigue degradation, i.e. consumption of fatigue life. Vattenfall has developed a methodology with the aim to analyse fatigue loads, acting on the runner and the rotor in hydropower units during operation. With a numerical model, the loads are assessed with input data gathered from measurements together with given data on several parameters. Some of the input data are bearing structure stiffness, bearing oil properties, and point of action of forces, etc. Several of these input parameters are subject to a degree of uncertainty, which affect the assessed fatigue load, determined with the methodology. This study will focus on analysing one fatigue force component acting on the runner. The aim with this study is to answer the following research questions: (i) Which input parameters, that are subject to a degree of uncertainty, contribute the most to the combined standard uncertainty in the assessed fatigue force? (ii) How much does the combined standard uncertainty in the assessed fatigue force amount to? (iii) How does the uncertainty in the assessed fatigue force affect the fatigue damage?. The combined standard uncertainty in the fatigue force is determined with methods in uncertainty propagation. In order to evaluate the effect from the uncertainty in the fatigue load on the fatigue damage, a statistical analysis of the ratio between the fatigue damage associated with a probability of exceedance and the expected fatigue damage is conducted. From the results it can be observed that the governing uncertainty parameter is the offset of the shaft displacement signal, which amount to 40 % of the combined standard uncertainty in the fatigue force. Of the nine analysed uncertainty parameters, three parameters are bearing properties parameters, i.e. the bearing clearance, the oil film temperature and the point of action of bearing forces, which amount to 47.5 % of the combined standard uncertainty in the fatigue force. Therefore, in order to decrease the uncertainties, focus should be kept on the bearing properties. Given each parameters uncertainty, the ratio between the combined standard uncertainty in the fatigue force and the expected fatigue force amount to 7 %. This corresponds to a ratio between the standard uncertainty in the fatigue damage and the expected fatigue damage of 35 %, due to the value of the index of S-N curve of five. Given the standard uncertainty in the fatigue force together with the index of S-N-curve, the ratio between the fatigue force associated with a probability of exceedance and the expected fatigue force can be assessed, i.e. the fatigue force ratio. Consequently, the fatigue force ratio amount to 1.32 for a probability of 0.0032 %, 1.09 for a probability of 10 % and 1.04 for a probability of 30 %. These probabilities correspond to the fatigue damage ratios, i.e. the ratios between the fatigue damage associated with a probability of exceedance and the expected fatigue damage of 4, 1.56 and 1.20. Thereby, the uncertainty in the fatigue force can greatly affect the uncertainty in the fatigue damage, dependent on the value of the index of S-N-curve. The results from this study imply the importance of considering the uncertainties in fatigue load assessments. These results provide support for assessing load levels for runner dimensioning to finally, be able to derive a correct margin of safety. This in order to not underestimate fatigue damage and thereby decrease the risk for unexpected fatigue failure. / Det finns ett förväntat behov av att kraftproduktionen i vattenkraftverk skall vara mer flexibel i framtiden. Detta leder till mer varierande driftlägen för turbinen och generatorn, såsom fler start och stop med syfte att stabilisera frekvensen i elnätet. Studier påvisar att transienta driftlägen är mer kostsamma i form av utmattningsdegradering, d.v.s. konsumtion av utmattningsliv. Vattenfall har utvecklat en metodik för att analysera inverkan av utmattningslaster verkande på löphjulet och rotorn i vattenkraftsaggregat under drift. Med en numerisk modell kan utmattningslasterna bedömas. Den ingående datan till modellen är bland annat är uppmätta storheter och given data på parameterar. Några av de ingående storheterna är lagerstyvhet, angreppspunkter för lagerkrafter och lageroljans egenskaper, etc. Flera av dessa ingående parametrar innehar osäkerheter, vilket påverkar bedömningen av utmattningslasterna. Denna studie kommer att fokusera på en kraftkomponent verkande på löphjulet. Malet med detta arbete är att svara på följande forskningsfrågor: (i) Vilka ingående parametrar, som innehar en osäkerhet, bidrar med en styrande osäkerhet i den bedömda kraften? (ii) Hur mycket uppgår den kombinerade standardosäkerheten i den bedömda kraften till? (iii) Hur påverkar kraftens osäkerhet utmattningsskadan? Den kombinerade standardosäkerheten i kraften är beräknad med metoder i fortplantning av osäkerheter. För att kunna bedöma påverkan på delskadan givet osäkerheten i kraften, så sker en statistisk analys av förhållandet mellan delskadan sammanhängande med en sannolikhet för överskridande och den förväntade delskadan. Resultatet påvisar att den styrande ingående parametern är offset i signalen för axelförskjutning, vilken uppgår till 40 % av den kombinerade standardosäkerheten i utmattningskraften. Av de nio analyserade parametrarna härrör tre av dessa lageregenskaper, d.v.s. lagerspel, oljetemperatur och angreppspunkter för lagerkrafterna, vilka tillsammans uppgår till 47.5 % av den kombinerade standardosäkerheten i utmattningskraften. Därför, för att reducera den totala osäkerheten bör fokus ligga på lageregenskaperna. Givet alla standardosäkerheter i de analyserade parametrarna så uppgår förhållandet mellan standardosäkerheten i utmattningskraften och den förväntade utmattningskraften på löphjulet till 7 %. Detta motsvarar att förhållandet mellan standardosäkerheten i delskadan och väntevärdet för delskadan uppkommer till 35 %, givet ett index av S-N-kurvan på fem. Givet standardosäkerheten i kraften och index av S-N-kurvan, kan förhållandet mellan utmattningskraften förenad med en sannolikhet för överskridande, och den förväntade utmattningskraften, d.v.s. kvoten av utmattningskraften, utvärderas. Detta resulterar att kvoten av utmattningskraften uppgår till 1.32 för en sannolikhet för överskridande på 0.0032 %, 1.09 för en sannolikhet på 10 % och 1.04 för en sannolikhet på 30 %. Dessa sannolikheter motsvarar att kvoten av delskadan, d.v.s. kvoten mellan delskadan förenad med en sannolikhet för överskridande, och den förväntade delskadan uppgår till 4, 1.56 och 1.20. Därför kan osäkerheten i utmattningskraften påverka osäkerheten i delskadan med en betydande faktor, beroende på värdet på index av S-N-kurvan. Således, resultaten från denna studie påvisar betydelsen att beakta osäkerheterna i de ingående parameterna vid bedömning av utmattningslast. Dessa resultat tillhandahåller stöd vid bedömning av lastnivåer för dimensionering av löphjul, för att slutligen kunna erhålla en korrekt säkerhetsmarginal. Detta för att inte underskatta utmattningsskadan och därmed minska risken oför oväntat utmattningshaveri.

The use of knowledge-based systems to aid in the diagnosis of faults in physical devices has grown considerably since their introduction during the 1970s. The majority of the early knowledge-based systems incorporated shallow knowledge, which sought to define simple cause and effect relationships between a symptom and a fault, that could be encoded as a set of rules. Though such systems enjoyed much success, it was recognised that they suffered from a number of inherent limitations such as inflexibility, inadequate explanation, and difficulties of knowledge elicitation. Many of these limitations can be overcome by developing knowledge-based systems which contain deeper knowledge about the device being diagnosed. Such systems, now generally referred to as model-based systems, have shown much promise, but there has been little evidence to suggest that they have successfully made the transition from the research centre to the workplace. This thesis argues that knowledge-based systems are an appropriate tool for the diagnosis of faults in complex devices, and that both deep and shallow knowledge have their part to play in this process. More specifically this thesis demonstrates how a wide-ranging knowledge-based system for quality assurance, based upon shallow knowledge, can be developed, and implemented. The resultant system, named DIPLOMA, not only diagnoses faults, but additionally provides advice and guidance on the assembly, disassembly, testing, inspection and repair of a highly complex hydro-mechanical device. Additionally it is shown that a highly innovative modelbased system, named MIDAS, can be used to contribute to the provision of diagnostic, explanatory and training facilities for the same hydro-mechanical device. The methods of designing, coding, implementing and evaluating both systems are explored in detail. The successful implementation and evaluation of the DIPLOMA and MIDAS systems has shown that knowledge-based systems are an appropriate tool for the diagnosis of faults in complex hydro-mechanical devices, and that they make a beneficial contribution to the business performance of the host organisation. Furthermore, it has been demonstrated that the most effective and comprehensive knowledge-based approach to fault diagnosis is one which incorporates both deep and shallow knowledge, so that the distinctive advantages of each can be realised in a single application. Finally, the research has provided evidence that the model-based approach to diagnosis is highly flexible, and may, therefore, be an appropriate technique for a wide range of industrial applications. / Science and Engineering Research Council, and Alvey Directorate

<p>Traditional and cont emporary studies of spatial administrative systems are reviewed. Economic, political and historical factors are related to patterns of administrative areas. The hypothesized relationships are tested using data for the Ontario Hydro-Electric Power Commission. Linear and quadratic models relating functional costs to workload of the administrative areas are offered. The quadratic models incorporate the concept of the long-run average cost curve. A theoretical relationship between the shape of an administrative area and the level of economic efficiency is tested. Linear programming is used to simulate administrative patterns. Four indices are used to describe and compare the patterns. One of the indices, the weighted mean, is used to operationalise Pred's Behavioural Matrix . Recommendations are made for future work. </p> / Thesis / Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

Dans cette thèse, il est question d'étudier la nature et les variations des représentations symboliques et identitaires véhiculées par les responsables politiques et les dirigeants d'Hydro-Québec lorsqu'ils interviennent entre 1944 et 2005 pour orienter ou pour instrumentaliser la société d'État et le développement énergétique au Québec. L'analyse historienne s'appuie principalement sur trois types de sources : les débats de l'Assemblée législative ou nationale du Québec; les allocutions présentées par les responsables gouvernementaux et les dirigeants de l'entreprise publique; de même que les documents promotionnels traitant des politiques étatiques ou des projets énergétiques. Dans cette perspective, Hydro-Québec peut être considérée comme un vecteur à partir duquel trois catégories de représentations sont véhiculées : celles qui touchent à l'espace approprié, à la modernité ainsi qu'à l'idée de faire société. Les représentations symboliques et identitaires étudiées subissent plusieurs transformations significatives sur une période de soixante ans. Dans un premier temps, l'espace approprié. Le rapport à la nature passe d'un contrôle "viril" des éléments naturels à la prédominance des valeurs de développement durable, en transitant par une ouverture à l'endroit de la protection de l'environnement. D'une manière plutôt similaire, la conception du territoire et de ses régions se modifie en trois temps : l'ouverture d'espaces nordiques vécus, la conquête de territoires septentrionaux utilitaires et le développement des régions nordiques partagées. En second lieu, la modernité. Le rapport à la modernité économique touche d'abord à la tentative de diversifier les pôles industriels pour l'exploitation des ressources premières, avant de se pencher sur l'émancipation économique grâce à l'industrialisation autochtone et, plus tard, de se tourner vers la mise en place des valeurs néo-libérales de rentabilité et de performance. Quant au rapport à la modernité technologique et scientifique, le rattrapage du savoir-faire laisse place à un éloge de l'ingéniosité québécoise source de fierté, avant de favoriser un virage technologique fondé sur de nouvelles technologies intégrées à l'économie. Enfin, l'idée de faire société. Des valeurs communautaires canadiennes-françaises centrées sur la solidarité sociale ainsi que la religion catholique, les composantes mises de l'avant pour faire société se transforment et mettent l'accent sur une émancipation économique, sociale et politique des Québécois francophones avant de s'assurer, plus tard, d'établir une continuité mémorielle avec les idéaux de la Révolution tranquille. Quant au rapport à l'Autre autochtone, il évolue selon quatre phases progressives : ignorance, reconnaissance, coopération et partenariat.

Le mémoire porte sur la dynamique de communication entre Hydro-Québec et les communautés innues dans le cadre du projet de barrage hydroélectrique sur la rivière Romaine. Il y est question de la participation des Innus aux études d’impact, aux consultations gouvernementales, aux négociations menant à la signature des ententes sur les répercussions et avantages et à la gestion des fonds obtenus en guise de dédommagement. La participation des Innus est mesurée à l’aide de l’échelle de participation citoyenne de Sherry Arnstein (1969). Les résultats montrent que la participation des Innus est plus limitée au moment des consultations et plus importante à l’intérieur des sociétés conjointes, composées d’Innus et de représentants d’Hydro-Québec, et dont le rôle est de gérer les fonds. De plus, le financement de projets communautaires et les emplois au chantier contribuent à l’empowerment des Innus, mais de façon limitée et inégale pour chacune des communautés. / This thesis focuses on the dynamics of the communication between Hydro-Québec and Innu communities within the hydroelectric dam project on the Romaine River. It deals with Innu participation during the impact assessments, public hearings, negotiations leading to the signature of Impacts on Benefits and Agreements, and funds management within joint societies composed of Innu and Hydro-Québec representatives. At every step of the project, some power resources enhance Innu participation while others prevent it. These resources are material, informational and relational ones (Lemieux, 2001). Innu participation within La Romaine project is measured on Sherry Arnstein’s Ladder of Citizen Participation (1969). The results show that Innu participation is less important during the consultation activities and more important within the joint societies. Moreover, funding of community projects and jobs creation contribute to Innu empowerment, but in a limited and unfair way for each community.

No description available.