Soils are a critical resource for supporting ecosystems, agricultural systems, and human wellbeing. However, these same soils have been degraded by human activities throughout human history. Despite the rapid development of global models that include dynamic changes in land use and land cover (LULC) and biogeochemical processes to assess climate and hydrological impacts, soil properties are often assumed to be spatially or temporally constant. These assumptions can affect the results of model projections, impact assessments and underestimate the human impact on Earth systems. This study reveals the physical impacts of human-altered soil conditions on the global water balance through a meta-analysis study and soil degradation modeling. We link major global LULCs to four hydrologic soil groups: sandy (sand, sandy loam, and loamy sand), loamy (loam, silty loam, and silt)), clayey soils (clay, sandy clay, clay loam, silty clay, and silty clay loam), and sandy clay loam) from 850 to 2015 AD, and identified loamy and clayey soils as the preferred soils for most human land uses. Humans selectively use those soils for intensive agriculture and pasture activities, while grazing occurs on sandier soils. To simulate the impact of human activities on soils, several soil change models were built for soil organic carbon (SOC) content, soil texture (sand, silt, and clay), and soil bulk density from meta-analyses of site observations. The models were applied globally based on the LULC and soil relations, global environmental and soil conditions, and LULC distributions. Pedotransfer functions were applied to estimate soil water-holding capacity using those soil properties, then a Thornthwaite-type water balance model was used to assess the impacts of soil degradation on the global water balance. Results show that under a high-intensity LULC scenario (conventional tillage on croplands and heavy grazing), SOC decreases by 363 Pg and water deficit increases 78 km3 globally. The impacts on SOC and deficit are reduced to 213 Pg and 51 km3, respectively, when reducing land-use intensity by substituting animal ploughing/no-till and light grazing for conventional tillage and heavy grazing. Impacts from other LULC types are identical for these two LULC scenarios. Development of this history between LULC and soil properties allows for improved simulation of human impacts on global water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles. The results of the water balance simulations demonstrate how different soils representations in models can significantly alter the estimates of global evapotranspiration, water deficit, and surplus. This study contributes to developing a better understanding of the processes by which human-induced soil degradation impacts climate/hydrological models and providing a mechanism to better assess the impacts of humans on the Earth system. The outcome will also complement numerous ongoing global studies that evaluate the impacts of climate change on water resources and society. / Graduate / 2023-08-09

Can one society’s flood risk perception and management strategy impact the neighbouring society? This study applies a socio-hydrological model to four ideal types of society living along the same river. These societies have various rationalities and risk perceptions: risk-controlling, risk-monitoring, risk- neglecting and risk-downplaying. Combined with a hydraulic model of the river, this study explores the human-flood interactions and how the four societies can influence each other. The results show that the society that adopts soft-measures experiences the lowest flood loss; the society that neglects flood risks suffers from much higher flood losses. Dynamics, including the levee effect and adaptation effect, can also be observed. The society that builds levees to alter the hydrological regime causes the flood stage to be higher than it would have been without levees, indirectly increasing flood loss for the neighbouring societies. A more sustainable flood risk management strategy calls for broader considerations than the conventional method. / Skulle ett samhälles uppfattning om översvämningsrisk och förvaltningsstrategi påverka det närliggande samhället? Denna studie tillämpar en sociohydrologisk modell på fyra idealtyper av samhälle som lever längs samma flod. Dessa samhällen har olika rationaliteter och riskuppfattningar: riskkontroll, riskövervakning, riskförsummelse och risknedsättande. I kombination med en hydraulisk modell av floden, utforskar denna studie interaktionen mellan människa och översvämning och hur de fyra samhällena kan påverka varandra. Resultaten visar att det samhälle som vidtar mjuka åtgärder upplever lägst översvämningsförlust; det samhälle som försummar översvämningsrisker lider av mycket högre översvämningsförluster. Dynamik, inklusive valleffekten och anpassningseffekten, kan också observeras. Det samhälle som bygger vallar för att förändra den hydrologiska regimen gör att översvämningsstadiet blir högre än det skulle ha varit utan vallar, vilket indirekt ökar översvämningsförlusterna för de närliggande samhällena. En mer hållbar strategi för hantering av översvämningsrisk kräver bredare överväganden än den konventionella metoden.

Peatlands in the sub-humid Boreal Plains of Alberta exist at the limit of their climatic tolerance and are vulnerable to wildfire. This is especially true at the interface between the peatland and forestland (margins) due to water table fluctuation resulting in high peat bulk density and low moisture content during dry periods in some peatland systems. Deep burning at the margins may reduce a peatland's ability to recover to its previous state, leading to a reduction in area and/or collapse following fire, and bringing into question the long-term stability of Boreal Plains peatlands on the landscape under current and future climate predictions. Previous research has identified small peatlands located at a mid-topographic position on coarse sediments as hotspots for deep burning, as these peatlands are not regularly connected to regional groundwater flow. The ability of these peatland systems to recover lost carbon from both the interior and margin within the fire return interval, however, has not yet been investigated. This thesis further examines the relationship between surficial sediment assemblages and the impact of wildfire on overlying peatlands through assessment of organic soil carbon accumulation following wildfire across the Boreal Plains landscape. Peatland organic soil recovery along a chronosequence was assessed in the interior and margin of 26 ombrotrophic bogs located at various positions on the post-glaciation landscape of Northern Alberta using estimates of organic soil carbon accumulation calculated through loss on ignition of peat above the uppermost charcoal layer in peat cores from each site, as well as characterization of peat properties along a transect from the adjacent forestland into the peatland interior. Soil organic carbon accumulation with time since fire was greater in studied peatland interiors than margins. Underlying sediments were found to have little effect on total soil organic carbon accumulation in the interior and margins of the studied peatlands, indicating that organic soil carbon accumulation rates following wildfire estimated in this study can be extended to ombrotrophic bogs across the Boreal Plains landscape. Though total soil organic carbon accumulation following wildfire does not appear to be influenced by hydrogeological setting, the ability of a peatland to recover the quantity of carbon lost within the fire return interval will be dependent on the amount of carbon which was released through smouldering, which is influenced by hydrogeological setting for peatland margins. Based on published measurements of organic soil carbon loss during wildfire and organic soil carbon accumulation rates estimated in this thesis, peatlands located at topographic lows on coarse grained glaciofluvial outwash sediments or on low-relief, fine grained sediment deposits from glaciolacustrine or subglacial paleoenvironments are predicted to be resilient to wildfire on the Boreal Plains landscape. Peatlands which experience severe smouldering at the margins, such as ephemerally perched systems on glaciofluvial outwash sediments, will likely undergo permanent loss of legacy carbon stores. The resilience of peatlands which are perched above regional groundwater on glaciofluvial outwash or stagnant ice moraine deposits is unknown at this time; further investigation into water table dynamics, margin peat properties, and smouldering depths in these systems is required. Identification of peatland systems which are at risk of permanent carbon loss at the margins and those which are most resilient to wildfire in this thesis can be applied to wildfire management strategies and the design of peatland systems for reclamation of oil sands leases. The stability of natural and created peatlands through time on a landscape where wildfire is frequent is an important consideration in terms of both lasting ecosystem services and the potential risk to fire suppression and community safety that vulnerable systems pose. / Thesis / Master of Science (MSc)

The research explores the potential impact of climate change on water availability in the highlands of Yemen across various future scenarios. To overcome the challenge of limited ground observations in Yemen, the study first evaluated multiple advanced climate datasets, including satellite-based, reanalysis, and gauge-based data. It then employed statistical downscaling to produce more accurate projections with higher spatial resolution and used the SWAT hydrological model to examine how key water components will be affected by changes in precipitation and temperature. Additionally, the study included a socio-economic analysis to identify practical adaptation measures to mitigate the impact on water availability, with a particular emphasis on local strategies that can be effectively implemented by the community.:List of Figures v List of Tables x Abbreviations and Symbols xii Abstract xv General Abstract xvii 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Overview 2 1.2 Description of the study area 5 1.3 Objectives of the study 7 1.4 Arrangement of the research chapters 8 1.5 A List of the Papers and their Contributions to the Thesis 10 Evaluation the Performance of Several Precipitation Products over the Highland Region of Yemen for Water Resources Management 13 2.1 Introduction 15 2.2 Study area and climate data 18 2.2.1 Region of interest 18 2.2.2 Data sets 19 2.2.3 Satellite-based data 20 2.2.4 Reanalysis data 21 2.2.5 Gauge-based data 22 2.3 Materials and Methods 24 2.3.1 Quality control of ground data 24 2.3.2 Comparing the precipitation products against observations 24 2.4 Results 27 2.4.1 Examination of rainfall daily estimates 27 2.4.2 Monthly evaluation 30 2.4.3 Annual timescale evaluation 36 2.5 Discussion 39 2.6 Conclusion 40 Projection of Climate Variability on the Yemeni Highlands by Statistical Down-Scaling for the Period 2010-2100 44 3.1 Introduction 47 3.2 The study area 52 3.3 Methodology and data sets 54 3.3.1 High-resolution gridded data 55 3.3.2 Reanalysis data 55 3.3.3 Global Climate Models (GCMs) data 56 3.3.4 Assessment of GCMs ensembles (CMIP5 and CMIP6) 57 3.3.5 The Statistical Down-Scaling Model (SDSM) 58 3.3.6 Predictors and steps of calibration and validation of SDSM 60 3.4 Results 60 3.4.1 Calibration and validation of precipitation 60 3.4.2 Calibration result of the temperature 65 3.4.3 Current condition of precipitation across the region 66 3.4.4 Seasonal future scenarios of precipitation 68 3.4.5 Annual projections of precipitation 72 3.4.6 Evaluation of SDSM precipitation output with GCMs estimates against rainfall observations 74 3.4.7 Long-term changes in maximum temperature 75 3.4.8 Long-term changes in minimum temperature 77 3.4.9 Evaluation of SDSM output and GCMs estimates against observed temperature 78 3.5 Discussion 79 3.6 Summary and conclusion 82 4 Hydrological Investigation of Climate Change Impacts on Water Balance Components in the Terraced Watersheds of Yemeni Highlands Region 85 4.1 Introduction 86 4.2 Materials and methods 88 4.2.1 Description of the catchments 88 4.2.2 Soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) 91 4.2.3 Topography and watershed configuration 92 4.2.4 Soil data 92 4.2.5 Land use and land cover (LULC) data 93 4.2.6 Hydro-meteorological data 94 4.2.7 Elevation bands and terraces integration 96 4.3 Model performance metrics 99 4.4 Results 100 4.4.1 Sensitivity analysis 100 4.4.2 Result of calibration and validation 102 4.4.3 Climate change projected change on the region 105 4.4.4 Impact assessment of the hydrological regime of Sana’a catchment 107 4.4.5 Assessment of hydrological regime of Surdod catchment 109 4.4.6 Assessment of climate change impact on the hydrological regime of Siham watershed 111 4.5 Discussion 113 4.6 Summary and conclusion 118 5 Potential of Traditional Adaptation Measures in Mitigating the Impacts of Climate Change 120 5.1 Introduction 121 5.2 Materials and methods 125 5.2.1 The study area 125 5.2.2 Data collection 125 5.3 Result and discussion 127 5.3.1 Agricultural water management 127 5.3.2 Farming measures 132 5.3.3 Soil protection measures 134 5.3.4 Conservation of natural resources 135 5.3.5 Household measures 137 5.3.6 Social aspects and challenges 139 5.4 Conclusion 142 6 General Conclusion and Recommendations 145 6.1 General conclusion 145 6.1.1 Summary 146 6.1.2 General recommendations 148 Acknowledgement 151 Bibliography 179 7 Supplementary Materials 180 7.1 Supplementary material Chapter 3 181 7.2 Supplementary materials chapter 4 184

京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第25249号 / 工博第5208号 / 京都大学大学院工学研究科社会基盤工学専攻 / (主査)教授 立川 康人, 教授 田中 賢治, 教授 佐山 敬洋 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DFAM

京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第25252号 / 工博第5211号 / 京都大学大学院工学研究科社会基盤工学専攻 / (主査)教授 立川 康人, 教授 堀 智晴, 教授 佐山 敬洋 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DGAM

This research investigated hydrologic connectivity, the intricate network of water pathways linking waterbodies, and its implications for biodiversity exchange in floodplains. Chapter 1 provides an exhaustive literature review encompassing factors influencing hydrologic connectivity, assessment approaches, scales, challenges, and management tools. Existing research often focuses on single scales and short-term periods, revealing a need for comprehensive multi-scale and extended temporal analyses. The absence of standardized definitions and methodologies in this field is also considered. Chapter 2 presents an innovative approach quantifying eight key connectivity metrics using remote sensing and GIS within the Lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley (LMAV). This adaptable method assesses connectivity between oxbow lakes and varying stream sizes, revealing spatial variability within the LMAV and enhancing scientific understanding of connectivity dynamics while ensuring portability. This research is crucial for effective ecosystem management and targeted conservation efforts, particularly regarding invasive species like the bigheaded carps (Hypophthalmichthys spp.).

Societal developments are associated with land use change, and with urbanization in particular. Urbanization can influence hydrological processes by decreasing evapotranspiration and infiltration as well as by increasing streamflow, peak flow and overland flow. This causes higher risks of flooding. Although several studies have investigated the impacts of urbanization on streamflow over the last decades, less is known about how urbanization affects the hydrological processes in peri-urban areas characterized by a complex mosaic of different land uses. This study aimed to model the impact of land use change, or more specifically urbanization, on the hydrological responses of the small peri-urban Ribeira dos Covões catchment (6.2 km2) located in central Portugal. The catchment has undergone rapid land use change since the mid- 1950s associated with conversion of agricultural fields (decreased from 48 to 4%) into woodland and urban areas, which increased from 44 to 56% and from 8 to 40%, respectively. For the study, the hydrological modelling system MIKE SHE was used. Parameters and data of climate, vegetation and soil types were used as input. There were also land use maps and daily streamflow values available for the hydrological years 2008/09 to 2012/13, which were used to calibrate and validate the model. The statistics from the calibration and validation both indicated that the model simulated the streamflow well. The model was designed to examine both how past land use change might have affected the streamflow, and to investigate the impacts on hydrology if the urban area was to be increased to cover 50% of the catchment. It was not only the importance of the urban cover’s size that was tested, but also the placement of additional urban areas. Three future scenarios were run, all with a 50% urban cover, but distributed differently within the catchment. The study did not indicate that an increase in urbanization leads to higher peak flow or streamflow. Neither could any decrease in infiltration be seen. All three scenarios however gave an increase in overland flow of approximately 10% and a decrease in evapotranspiration by 55%, regardless of where the urban areas were added. The reliability of the models can be enhanced by additional climate, soil and vegetation data. This would improve the results and make them more useful in decision making processes in the planning and management of new urban areas. / Samhällets ständiga utveckling medför förändringar i markanvändning. Utvecklingen och förändringarna är framför allt associerade med urbanisering som kan påverka ett avrinningsområdes hydrologiska processer genom att exempelvis reducera dess evapotranspiration och infiltration samt öka vattenföringen, högsta flödet och ytavrinningen. Det i sin tur ökar risken för översvämning. Trots att många studier har undersökt urbaniseringens inverkan på vattenföring de senaste decennierna saknas viss kunskap om dess påverkan på hydrologin i stadsnära avrinningsområden, kännetecknade av flera olika typer av markanvändning. Denna studie syftade till att modellera hur förändringar i markanvändning, eller mer specifikt urbanisering, påverkar hydrologin i det lilla stadsnära avrinningsområdet Ribeira dos Covões (6,2 km2) i centrala Portugal. Avrinningsområdet har genomgått snabba markanvändningsförändringar sedan mitten av 1950-talet i samband med en omvandling av åkrar (täckningsarean har minskat från 48 till 4 %) till skogsmark och urbaniserade områden, vilkas storlek har ökat från 44 till 56 % respektive 8 till 40 %. För att uppfylla syftet har den hydrologiska modellen MIKE SHE använts. Parametrar avseende klimat samt vegetations- och jordegenskaper användes som indata till modellen. Det fanns också tillgång till en markanvändningskarta över området samt dagliga flödesvärden mellan de hydrologiska åren 2008 och 2013. Dessa användes för att kalibrera och validera modellen. Statistiken för både kalibreringen och valideringen indikerade en fullt acceptabel modell. Modellen var avsedd att undersöka dels hur tidigare förändring i markanvändning kan ha påverkat vattenföringen, dels för att studera effekten på hydrologin om urbaniseringen fortgår tills dess täckning är 50 % av avrinningsområdet. Det var inte bara betydelsen av de urbana ytornas storlek som testades, utan även placeringen av dem. Tre framtidsscenarier togs fram, alla med en urban yta på 50 % fördelad olika inom avrinningsområdet. Studien indikerade inte att ytterligare urbanisering ökar vare sig flödet eller det högsta flödet. Inte heller gav de någon minskning av infiltration. Alla tre scenarierna gav emellertid en ökning av ytavrinningen med cirka 10 % och en minskning av evapotranspirationen med 55 %, oavsett placering av de urbana ytorna. Modellernas tillförlitlighet skulle kunna förbättras med hjälp av ytterligare klimat-, vegetations- och jordindata. Det skulle förbättra resultaten och göra dem användbara i beslutsfattanden vid planering och utveckling av nya urbana områden.

Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2014. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Bugan, R.D.H. Modelling and regulating hydrosalinity dynamics in the Sandspruit River catchment (Western Cape). PhD dissertation, Stellenbosch University. The presence and impacts of dryland salinity are increasingly become evident in the semi-arid Western Cape. This may have serious consequences for a region which has already been classified as water scarce. This dissertation is a first attempt at providing a methodology for regulating the hydrosalinity dynamics in a catchment affected by dryland salinity, i.e. the Sandspruit catchment, through the use of a distributed hydrological model. It documents the entire hydrological modelling process, i.e. the progression from data collection to model application. A review of previous work has revealed that salinisation is a result of land use change from perennial indigenous deep rooted vegetation to annual shallow rooted cropping systems. This has altered the water and salinity dynamics in the catchment resulting in the mobilisation of stored salts and subsequently the salinisation of land and water resources. The identification of dryland salinity mitigation measures requires thorough knowledge of the water and salinity dynamics of the study area. A detailed water balance and conceptual flow model was calculated and developed for the Sandspruit catchment. The annual streamflow and precipitation ranged between 0.026 mm a-1 - 75.401 mm a-1 and 351 and 655 mm a-1 (averaging at 473 mm a- 1), respectively. Evapotranspiration was found to be the dominant component of the water balance, as it comprises, on average, 94% of precipitation. Streamflow is interpreted to be driven by quickflow, i.e. overland flow and interflow, with minimal contribution from groundwater. Quantification of the catchment scale salinity fluxes indicated the Sandspruit catchment is in a state of salt depletion, i.e. salt output exceeds salt input. The total salt input to and output from the Sandspruit catchment ranged between 2 261 - 3 684 t Catchment-1 and 12 671 t a-1 - 21 409 t a-1, respectively. Knowledge of the spatial distribution of salt storage is essential for identifying target areas to implement mitigation measures. A correlation between the salinity of sediment samples collected during borehole drilling and the groundwater EC (r2 = 0.75) allowed for the point data of salt storage to be interpolated. Interpolated salt storage ranged between 3 t ha-1 and 674 t ha-1, exhibiting generally increasing storage with decreasing ground elevation. The quantified water and salinity fluxes formed the basis for the application of the JAMS/J2000-NaCl hydrological model in the Sandspruit catchment. The model was able to adequately simulate the hydrology of the catchment, exhibiting a daily Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.61. The simulated and observed salt outputs exhibited discrepancies at daily scale but were comparable at an annual scale. Recharge control, through the introduction of deep rooted perennial species, has been identified as the dominant measure to mitigate the impacts of dryland salinity. The effect of various land use change scenarios on the catchment hydrosalinity balance was evaluated with the JAMS/J2000-NaCl model. The simulated hydrosalinity balance exhibited sensitivity to land use change, with rooting depth being the main factor, and the spatial distribution of vegetation. Revegetation with Mixed forests, Evergreen forests and Range Brush were most effective in reducing salt leaching, when the “salinity hotspots” were targeted for re-vegetation (Scenario 3). This re-vegetation strategy resulted in an almost 50% reduction in catchment salt output. Overall, the results of the scenario simulations provided evidence for the consideration of re-vegetation strategies as a dryland salinity mitigation measure in the Sandspruit catchment. The importance of a targeted approach was also highlighted, i.e. mitigation measures should be implemented in areas which exhibit a high salt storage. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die teenwoordigheid en impak van droëland versouting word duideliker in die halfdor Wes-Kaap. Dit kan ernstige gevolge inhou vir die streek wat reeds as ‘n waterskaars area geklassifiseer is. Hierdie verhandeling is ‘n poging om ‘n metode vir die regulering van waterversoutingsdinamiek in ‘n opvangsgebied wat deur verbrakking van grond geaffekteer is, i.e. die Sandspruit opvangsgebied, te bepaal deur gebruik te maak van ‘n verspreide hidrologiese model. Dit dokumenteer die volledige hidrologiese modeleringsproses, i.e. vanaf die versameling van data tot die aanwending van die model. ‘n Oorsig van vorige studies bevestig dat versouting ‘n gevolg is van die verandering vanaf meerjarige inheemse plantegroei met diep wortelstelsels tot die verbouing van gewasse met vlak wortelstelsels. Dit het ‘n verandering in die water en versoutingsdinamiek in die opvangsgebied tot gevolg gehad in soverre dat dit die mobilisering van versamelde soute en gevolglike versouting van die grond en waterbronne tot gevolg gehad het. Die identifikasie van maatreëls om droëland versouting te verminder, vereis ‘n deeglike kennis van die water- en versoutingsdinamiek van die studie gebied. ‘n Gedetailleerde waterbalans en konseptuele vloeimodel was bereken vir die Sandspruit opvangsgebied. Die jaarlikse stroomvloei en neerslag varieer tussen 0.026 - 75.401 mm a-1 en 351 - 655 mm a-1 (gemiddeld 473 mm a-1), onderskeidelik. Dit is bevind dat evapotranspirasie die dominante komponent is van die waterbalans, aangesien dit 94% uitmaak van die neerslag. Stroomvloei word aangedryf deur snelvloei, i.e oppervlakvloei en deurvloei met minimale bydrae van grondwater. Die omvang van die opvangsgebied se soutgehalte het aangedui dat die Sandspruit opvangsgebied tans ‘n toestand van soutvermindering ondervind, i.e. sout invloei word oorskrei deur sout uitvloei. Die totale sout in- en uitvloei in die Sandspruit opvangsgebied het gewissel tussen 2 261 - 3 684 t Opvangsgebied-1 en 12 671 - 21 409 t a-1 onderskeidelik. Kennis van die ruimtelike verspreiding van opbou van soute in die grond is belangrik om areas te identifiseer vir die toepassing van voorsorgmaatreëls. ‘n Korrelasie tussen die soutinhoud van sediment monsters wat versamel is tydens die boor van boorgate en die grondwater EC (r2 = 0.75) het die interpolasie van puntdata waar sout aansamel toegelaat. Hierdie interpolasie van sout aansameling het gewissel tussen 3 t ha-1 and 674 t ha-1 en bewys ‘n algemeen verhoogde opbou met vermindering in grond elevasie. Die hoeveelheidsbepaling van water en die versoutings roetering vorm die basis vir die aanwending van die JAMS/J2000-NaCl hidrologiese model in die Sandspruit opvangsgebied. Die model het ‘n geskikte simulasie van die hidrologie van die opvangsgebied geimplimenteer, en het ‘n daaglikse Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency van 0.61 getoon. Die gesimuleerde en waargenome sout afvoer het teenstrydighede getoon t.o.v daaglike metings maar was verenigbaar op ‘n jaarlikse skaal. Aanvullingsbeheer deur die aanplanting van meerjarige spesies met diep wortelstelsels is geidentifiseer as ‘n oorwegende maatreël om die impak van verbrakking van grond teë te werk. Die effek van verskeie veranderde grondgebuike op die balans van die opvangsgebied se hidro-soutgehalte is geëvalueer met die JAMS/J2000-NaCl model. Die balans van gesimuleerde hidro-saliniteit het ‘n sensitiwiteit t.o.v veranderde grondgebruik getoon, met die diepte van wortelstels as die hoof faktor, asook die ruimtelike verspreiding van plantegroei. Hervestiging van verskeie tipes bome, meerjarige bome en “Range Brush” was die effektiefste t.o.v die vermindering in sout uitloging waar die soutgraad konsentrasie areas ge-oormerk was vir hervestiging van plantegroei (Scenario 3). Die strategie van hervestinging het ‘n afname van 50% in versouting in die opvangsgebied getoon. In die geheel het die resultate van die simulasies genoegsame bewys gelewer dat ‘n strategie van hervestiging en groei as ‘n voorsorg maatreël kan dien om droëland versouting in die Sandspruit opvangsgebied teen te werk. Die belangrikeid daarvan om ‘n geteikende benadering te volg is benadruk, i.e. voorsorg maatreëls kan toegepas word in areas met hoë soutgehalte.

Sediment records of two Italian subalpine lakes (Lake Garda and Lake Ledro) were analyzed in order to reconstruct their ecological evolution over the past several hundred years. A multi-proxy and multi-site approach was applied in order to disentangle the effects of local anthropogenic forcings, such as nutrients, and climate impacts on the two lakes and their catchments. Biological indicators (sub-fossil pigments, diatoms and Cladocera) were used to reconstruct changes in the aquatic food web and to define the lake reference conditions, while geochemical methods, i.e. wavelength-dispersive X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy (WD-XRF), were used to provide quantitative information on the different physical or chemical processes affecting both lake and catchment systems. Sub-fossil pigments and diatoms, together with their respective inferred TP values, suggested very stable oligotrophic conditions in both lakes until the 1960s. The period following was affected by nutrient enrichment, which led to a drastic shift in the phytoplanktonic community. The response of sub-fossil pigments and diatoms to major climatic anomalies such as the Medieval Climatic Anomaly (MCA) and the Little Ice Age (LIA) were not pronounced, and the taxonomic composition remained relatively stable. On the contrary, these proxies showed an indirect response to climate variability since the beginning of the nutrient enrichment phase in the 1960s. In Lake Garda, the winter temperature regulates the water column mixing, which in its turn controls the degree of nutrient fertilization of the entire water column, and the related phytoplankton growth. In Lake Ledro a rapid reorganization of planktonic diatoms was observed only during the temperature recovery after the LIA, while recent temperature effects are masked by the prevailing nutrient effects. In Lake Garda, Cladocera remains responded in quantitative and qualitative terms to climatic changes, whereas in Lake Ledro they appeared to be mainly affected by variations in hydrological regimes, i.e. flood events. Cladocera remains corroborated the nutrient enrichment after the 1960s in both lakes as inferred by diatoms and pigments. In Lake Garda, the geochemical data showed a pronounced shift in elemental composition since the mid-1900s, when major elements and lithogenic tracers started to decrease, while some elements related to redox conditions and other (contaminant) trace elements increased. The general trends since the mid-1900s agree with the biological records. However, some differences recorded in the two different basins of Lake Garda reflected the effects of local conditions, both related to hydrology and sedimentation patterns. Lake Ledro showed higher short-term variability for most elements, even though some features were comparable to Lake Garda. The geochemical record of Lake Ledro revealed a major influence of human-induced lake-level fluctuations and catchment properties. This paleolimnological study allows us to place temporally restricted limnological surveys into a longer-term secular perspective, which is highly valuable for the definition of lake reference conditions. Because the restoration targets are usually based on the lake reference conditions, this study highlighted also the necessity to pay particular attention to the lake-specific sensitivity patterns. The multi-proxy and multi-site approach showed that the lake conditions of large and deep lakes in northern Italy, such as Lake Garda, are mainly driven by nutrient enrichment and/or climate change. In contrast, smaller lakes with larger catchment areas, such as Lake Ledro, are seemingly more impacted by conditions and processes occurring in the drainage basin.