No description available.

The origin and classification of open and mosaic ecosystems, particularly in the tropics and subtropics, have led to controversy worldwide. This has affected biodiversity conservation and, in some cases, promoted the establishment of afforestation projects based on the assumption that open and mosaic ecosystems are degraded forests. Although this initiative can have benefits in terms of carbon storage and climate mitigation if carefully planned and managed, it can also cause biodiversity loss and degradation when afforestation takes place in areas that were previously open ecosystems, or where unsuitable species are used. Madagascar, a world biodiversity hotspot, is one of the countries targeted for the implementation of afforestation projects. The Central Highlands of Madagascar, dominated by grassland matrix with forest patches, is the main region targeted. The nature and origin of the landscape are hotly debated, however, and it is not clear whether these open ecosystems are ancient or anthropogenically derived. Understanding of landscape history is therefore required to identify and conserve ancient open ecosystems, and to distinguish them from areas that have been deforested by people. This research aims to reconstruct the vegetation history and environmental change in the Central Highlands of Madagascar during the Holocene using palaeoecological methods, in order to inform appropriate conservation and management plans. We provide new records of vegetation, hydrological change, fire and herbivory activities by using a multiproxy approach, which includes fossil pollen, stable carbon isotopes, diatoms, charcoal and coprophilous spores, that allows for a comprehensive investigation into the history and drivers of vegetation change. Sediment cores were collected from two sites, Tampoketsa-Ankazobe wetland and Lake Dangovavy, located in the eastern and western slopes of the highlands, respectively. Results indicated that the surrounding area of both sites was composed of mosaic ecosystems, comprising of forest patches of variable extent in a matrix of open grassland and ericoid shrubland vegetation, at least from the Early and Mid-Holocene to ca. 1000 cal years BP, driven mainly by climate variability and fire occurrence. In Tampoketsa-Ankazobe wetland (eastern slopes), the vegetation was characterised by a mosaic of ericoid shrubland and mid-elevation forest taxa, between ca. 11 200 and 8300 cal years BP, under warm/wet period and low fire occurrence. The vegetation in the area changed to a mosaic of ericoid shrubland with more dominance of high-elevation forest from ca. 8300 to 1000 cal years BP under a drier climate and consistent low fire occurrence. The abundance of shrubs and trees during those two periods were confirmed by the dominance of C3 plants as reflected by the stable carbon isotopes results, and coincided with low herbivory activities in the TampoketsaAnkazobe site from ca. 11 200 to 1000 cal years BP. In parallel, the pollen record from Lake Dangovavy (western slopes), between ca. 6200 and 5400 cal years BP, suggests a mosaic ecosystem, dominated by more C3 montane grass, ericoid shrubland and high elevation forest patches promoted by cool/dry climate with low fire occurrence and herbivory activities. Between ca. 5400 and 4200 cal years BP, vegetation in the area was dominated by a mosaic of ericoid shrubland and mid-elevation forest under a wetter period, moderate fire occurrence, and herbivory activities. This mosaic was controlled by climate, fire refugia and herbivory feedbacks. The vegetation changed into a forest-savanna mosaic with an abundance of grassland and pioneer/fire-resistant trees between ca. 4200 and 3000 cal years BP. The period was characterised by an initial increase of local fire followed by a regional drought event. This suggests that a threshold might have been reached, with a resulting shift in vegetation composition. Between ca. 3000 and 1000 cal years BP, reoccurrence of ericoid shrubland with woodland savanna taxa was recorded in the area. The vegetation was conditioned by variation of climate from wet (until ca. 2000 cal years BP) to dry period (ca. 2000–⁠1000 cal years BP) with moderate fire occurrence and herbivory activities. In addition, stable carbon isotope results show that between ca. 6200 to 1000 cal years BP, the site was characterised by C3 plants. During the last ca.1000 cal years BP, pollen records from both sites in the Central Highlands of Madagascar showed a shift to a more open landscape dominated by grassland. Trees and shrubland in the highlands experienced a massive decrease and this correlated with an abundance of C4 plants associated with reduced diversity. The shift of vegetation during this period was likely a result of a centennial severe drought period at ca. 950 cal years BP, as recorded in the literature and confirmed by the peak in aerophilous taxa in our diatom record. The drought was followed by a dramatic increase of fire occurrence and herbivory activities in the region, as recorded in the charcoal and spore records from both sites, indicating human activities at ca. 700 and 500 cal years BP for Lake Dangovavy and Tampoketsa-Ankazobe wetland, respectively. Though the vegetation at both sites in Central Highlands of Madagascar was very dynamic until ca. 1000 cal years BP, complex interactions between climate and fire allowed the forest and ericoid elements to persist, consistent with a heterogeneous mosaic landscape. This changed from 1000 years ago with the occurrence of a regional severe drought event followed by an increase in human activities leading to an increase of grass, a decline in forest and ericoid elements. Our findings suggest that although, the eastern and western slopes in Madagascar might have different vegetation histories over time as a response to the complex climatic-fire drivers at least until ca. 1000 cal years BP, they both: a) Contained ancient open ecosystems such as grasslands and/or ericoid shrubland, and a mosaic landscape which should be considered typical of the highland region. b) Experienced a loss of forest, woodland and mosaic elements, a trend that is consistent with the anthropogenic conversion of some forests to grasslands since ca. 1000 cal years BP. Such findings have implications in terms of conservation, fire management and afforestation projects in the Central Highlands, and provide additional knowledge that contributes to the understanding of its ecological processes and history prior to human arrival on the island. Indeed: 1) Ancient grasslands and ericoid shrubland need to be identified and conserved because of their antiquity and unique biodiversity. To date, there has been some focus on ancient grasslands, but the presence of ancient heathlands has not been discussed. 2) It is important to distinguish ancient from derived grasslands and to target the latter for reforestation, using species that are typical of the remaining forest patches. 3) Fire management should be conducted at a local scale and should incorporate the landscape fire history, considering, for example, the differences between two slopes in the Central Highlands.

In hydrological and hydraulic modelling, river geometry is a crucial input data. Recent investigations have been looking at methods to improve the description of cross sections extracted by DEM derived by satellite images. SRTM derived DEM are often lacking precise information as the sensors cannot detect the submerged river parts, but, on the other hand, it is available on a global scale which makes it very attractive and useful, especially in data scarce regions. This study aims at applying the so called “slope break” method to improve river cross section geometry extracted from SRTM DEM. The report is divided into three parts: a) The making of a Matlab-code to improve cross sections geometry extracted by satellite derived DEM; b) an application of the code to real cross-sections from the river Po in Italy and c) hydraulic simulations with and without SRTM modified cross sections to test the performance of the method, in collaboration with senior colleagues. The Matlab successfully performs the slope break point and finds, when appropriate, the approximated lowest point zmin of the cross section below the water surface. The comparison of the river geometry of the modified SRTM cross sections versus LiDAR available cross sections show the good performance of the method in improving the river geometry description. This code can simplify the work and improve many SRTM river cross sections in an effective way. The hydraulic simulations performed with and without the modified cross sections show how the modified SRTM model improves when compared to LiDAR results

[ES] La cuantificación de la incertidumbre predictiva es de vital importancia para producir predicciones hidrológicas confiables que soporten y apoyen la toma de decisiones en el marco de la gestión de los recursos hídricos. Los post-procesadores hidrológicos son herramientas adecuadas para estimar la incertidumbre predictiva de las predicciones hidrológicas (salidas del modelo hidrológico). El objetivo general de esta tesis es mejorar los métodos de post-procesamiento hidrológico para estimar la incertidumbre predictiva de caudales mensuales. Esta tesis pretende resolver dos problemas del post-procesamiento hidrológico: i) la heterocedasticidad y ii) la función de verosimilitud intratable. Los objetivos específicos de esta tesis son tres. Primero y relacionado con la heterocedasticidad, se propone y evalúa un nuevo método de post-procesamiento llamado GMM post-processor que consiste en la combinación del esquema de modelado de probabilidad Bayesiana conjunta y la mezcla de Gaussianas múltiples. Además, se comparó el desempeño del post-procesador propuesto con otros métodos tradicionales y bien aceptados en caudales mensuales a través de las doce cuencas hidrográficas del proyecto MOPEX. A partir de este objetivo (capitulo 2), encontramos que GMM post-processor es el mejor para estimar la incertidumbre predictiva de caudales mensuales, especialmente en cuencas de clima seco. Segundo, se propone un método para cuantificar la incertidumbre predictiva en el contexto de post-procesamiento hidrológico cuando sea difícil calcular la función de verosimilitud (función de verosimilitud intratable). Algunas veces en modelamiento hidrológico es difícil calcular la función de verosimilitud, por ejemplo, cuando se trabaja con modelos complejos o en escenarios de escasa información como en cuencas no aforadas. Por lo tanto, se propone el ABC post-processor que intercambia la estimación de la función de verosimilitud por el uso de resúmenes estadísticos y datos simulados. De este objetivo específico (capitulo 3), se demuestra que la distribución predictiva estimada por un método exacto (MCMC post-processor) o por un método aproximado (ABC post-processor) es similar. Este resultado es importante porque trabajar con escasa información es una característica común en los estudios hidrológicos. Finalmente, se aplica el ABC post-processor para estimar la incertidumbre de los estadísticos de los caudales obtenidos desde las proyecciones de cambio climático, como un caso particular de un problema de función de verosimilitud intratable. De este objetivo específico (capitulo 4), encontramos que el ABC post-processor ofrece proyecciones de cambio climático más confiables que los 14 modelos climáticos (sin post-procesamiento). De igual forma, ABC post-processor produce bandas de incertidumbre más realista para los estadísticos de los caudales que el método clásico de múltiples conjuntos (ensamble). / [CA] La quantificació de la incertesa predictiva és de vital importància per a produir prediccions hidrològiques confiables que suporten i recolzen la presa de decisions en el marc de la gestió dels recursos hídrics. Els post-processadors hidrològics són eines adequades per a estimar la incertesa predictiva de les prediccions hidrològiques (eixides del model hidrològic). L'objectiu general d'aquesta tesi és millorar els mètodes de post-processament hidrològic per a estimar la incertesa predictiva de cabals mensuals. Els objectius específics d'aquesta tesi són tres. Primer, es proposa i avalua un nou mètode de post-processament anomenat GMM post-processor que consisteix en la combinació de l'esquema de modelatge de probabilitat Bayesiana conjunta i la barreja de Gaussianes múltiples. A més, es compara l'acompliment del post-processador proposat amb altres mètodes tradicionals i ben acceptats en cabals mensuals a través de les dotze conques hidrogràfiques del projecte MOPEX. A partir d'aquest objectiu (capítol 2), trobem que GMM post-processor és el millor per a estimar la incertesa predictiva de cabals mensuals, especialment en conques de clima sec. En segon lloc, es proposa un mètode per a quantificar la incertesa predictiva en el context de post-processament hidrològic quan siga difícil calcular la funció de versemblança (funció de versemblança intractable). Algunes vegades en modelació hidrològica és difícil calcular la funció de versemblança, per exemple, quan es treballa amb models complexos o amb escenaris d'escassa informació com a conques no aforades. Per tant, es proposa l'ABC post-processor que intercanvia l'estimació de la funció de versemblança per l'ús de resums estadístics i dades simulades. D'aquest objectiu específic (capítol 3), es demostra que la distribució predictiva estimada per un mètode exacte (MCMC post-processor) o per un mètode aproximat (ABC post-processor) és similar. Aquest resultat és important perquè treballar amb escassa informació és una característica comuna als estudis hidrològics. Finalment, s'aplica l'ABC post-processor per a estimar la incertesa dels estadístics dels cabals obtinguts des de les projeccions de canvi climàtic. D'aquest objectiu específic (capítol 4), trobem que l'ABC post-processor ofereix projeccions de canvi climàtic més confiables que els 14 models climàtics (sense post-processament). D'igual forma, ABC post-processor produeix bandes d'incertesa més realistes per als estadístics dels cabals que el mètode clàssic d'assemble. / [EN] The predictive uncertainty quantification in monthly streamflows is crucial to make reliable hydrological predictions that help and support decision-making in water resources management. Hydrological post-processing methods are suitable tools to estimate the predictive uncertainty of deterministic streamflow predictions (hydrological model outputs). In general, this thesis focuses on improving hydrological post-processing methods for assessing the conditional predictive uncertainty of monthly streamflows. This thesis deal with two issues of the hydrological post-processing scheme i) the heteroscedasticity problem and ii) the intractable likelihood problem. Mainly, this thesis includes three specific aims. First and relate to the heteroscedasticity problem, we develop and evaluate a new post-processing approach, called GMM post-processor, which is based on the Bayesian joint probability modelling approach and the Gaussian mixture models. Besides, we compare the performance of the proposed post-processor with the well-known exiting post-processors for monthly streamflows across 12 MOPEX catchments. From this aim (chapter 2), we find that the GMM post-processor is the best suited for estimating the conditional predictive uncertainty of monthly streamflows, especially for dry catchments. Secondly, we introduce a method to quantify the conditional predictive uncertainty in hydrological post-processing contexts when it is cumbersome to calculate the likelihood (intractable likelihood). Sometimes, it can be challenging to estimate the likelihood itself in hydrological modelling, especially working with complex models or with ungauged catchments. Therefore, we propose the ABC post-processor that exchanges the requirement of calculating the likelihood function by the use of some sufficient summary statistics and synthetic datasets. With this aim in mind (chapter 3), we prove that the conditional predictive distribution is similarly produced by the exact predictive (MCMC post-processor) or the approximate predictive (ABC post-processor), qualitatively speaking. This finding is significant because dealing with scarce information is a common condition in hydrological studies. Finally, we apply the ABC post-processing method to estimate the uncertainty of streamflow statistics obtained from climate change projections, such as a particular case of intractable likelihood problem. From this specific objective (chapter 4), we find that the ABC post-processor approach: 1) offers more reliable projections than 14 climate models (without post-processing); 2) concerning the best climate models during the baseline period, produces more realistic uncertainty bands than the classical multi-model ensemble approach. / I would like to thank the Gobernación del Huila Scholarship Program No. 677 (Colombia) for providing the financial support for my PhD research. / Romero Cuellar, J. (2019). Improving hydrological post-processing for assessing the conditional predictive uncertainty of monthly streamflows [Tesis doctoral]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/133999 / TESIS

No description available.

En esta investigación se realiza el análisis hidrológico de la cuenca Utcubamba, y posteriormente el análisis hidráulico del río Utcubamba, para así, poder obtener un mapa de inundación que permita identificar las zonas susceptibles a este fenómeno, en el distrito del Milagro, departamento de Amazonas. Para poder realizar el mapa de inundación, se parte del análisis hidrológico que consta de delimitar la cuenca Utcubamba, determinar sus características, mediante el software ArcGis. Previamente, se tendrá que recolectar los registros de precipitación de las diferentes estaciones pluviométricas, donde mediante métodos probabilísticos y pruebas de bondad, y estimando los datos faltantes, se puede obtener los hietogramas de diseño para lograr la obtención de las avenidas máximas (caudales de diseño) para diferentes tiempos en que se va a retornar y que se han propuesto. Para el análisis hidráulico, se necesita realizar visitas a campo, para poder hallar el factor de rugosidad más apropiado para el río, y además para obtener un panorama más amplio sobre el lugar de estudio. Se obtendrán las curvas de nivel y la batimetría, datos fundamentales para el modelamiento y obtención de secciones transversales del río. Para ello, se usará el modelo matemático HEC-RAS. Y así con la intervención de los programas y el análisis propuesto se podrá obtener el mapa de inundación y así dar la alternativa de solución más adecuada al problema que se pueda generar / In this research, the hydrological analysis of the Motupe basin is carried out, and later the hydraulic analysis of the Motupe river, in order to obtain a flood map that allows identifying the areas susceptible to this phenomenon, in the district of Milagro, Amazonas. In order to carry out the flood map, we start from the hydrological analysis that consists of delimiting the Utcubamba basin, determining its characteristics, with the help of the ArcGis program. Previously, the precipitation data from the different rainfall stations will have to be collected, where by means of probabilistic methods and goodness tests, and estimating the missing data, the design hietograms can be obtained in order to obtain the maximum flows (design flows) for different proposed return times. For hydraulic analysis, field visits are required to determine the most appropriate roughness coefficient for the river, and also to obtain a broader view of the study site.,contour lines and bathymetry will be obtained, fundamental data for modeling and obtaining cross sections of the river. For this, the mathematical model HEC-RAS will be used. And thus, with the intervention of the programs and the proposed analysis, it will be possible to obtain the flood map and thus provide the most appropriate alternative solution to the problem that may be generated.

The Sub artic regions are becoming increasingly important due to the effects of climate change. In northern Sweden, thawing of permafrost has led to significant increases in annual minimum flows in several catchments. This has led to studies of groundwater flow, responses to precipitation and runoff, and subsurface connectivity of springs on slopes. However, there remains a limited understanding of the interplay between surface flow and subsurface flow in the hillslopes of subarctic region. There is a need to better understand the flow pathways and connectivity of groundwater flows within the slopes. This study aims to analyze the interactions between surface flow and subsurface flow on an Sub artic mountainside. Utilizing tracer experiments and a hydrological model, the complex dynamics governing water movement within this intricate system have been studied.  Tracer experiments affirmed the hydraulic connection between hillslope and spring. The spring's response to tracer injection hinted at dominant preferential flow paths within the regolith layer's base. Nonetheless, only 40% mass recovery raised queries about factors affecting the flow in the hillslope. Thus, in this project, a model was developed using Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS) to examine the dominant flow processes and evaluate the influence of various hydrogeology parameters and fluid flow properties on tracer movement. The results highlight the dominance of subsurface flows occurring close to the surface. The parameter sensitivity analysis conducted in the study showed that roughness coefficient and permeability significantly influenced specific pathways and directions that water, and tracers took as they moved through the hillslope's subsurface layers and regolith.  However, the model has limitations, such as neglecting the lateral variations of the subsurface material, seasonal freeze-thaw processes and the simplified representation of the slope and catchment. The results of this study show the need for utilizing more field-based methodologies and further refinement of the modeling approach to improve our understanding of hydrologic processes in high latitude areas.

Long-term human-environmental interactions in naturally fragile drylands are a focus of geomorphological and geoarchaeological research. Furthermore, many dryland societies were also affected by seismic activity. The semi-arid Shiraki Plain in the tectonically active southeastern Caucasus is currently covered by steppe and largely devoid of settlements. However, numerous Late Bronze to Early Iron Age city-type settlements suggest early state formation between ca. 3.2-2.5 ka that abruptly ended after that time. A paleolake was postulated for the lowest plain, and nearby pollen records suggest forest clearcutting of the upper altitudes under a more humid climate during the Late Bronze/Early Iron Ages. Furthermore, also an impact of earthquakes on regional Early Iron Age settlements was suggested. However, regional paleoenvironmental changes and paleoseismicity were not systematically studied so far. We combined geomorphological, sedimentological, chronological and paleoecological data with hydrological modelling to reconstruct regional Holocene paleoenvironmental changes, to identify natural and human causes and to study possible seismic events during the Late Bronze/Early Iron Ages. Our results show a balanced to negative Early to Mid-Holocene water balance probably caused by forested upper slopes. Hence, no lake but a pellic Vertisol developed in the lowest plain. Following, Late Bronze/Early Iron Age forest clear-cutting caused lake formation and the deposition of lacustrine sediments derived from soil erosion. Subsequently, regional aridification caused slow lake desiccation. Remains of freshwater fishes indicate that the lake potentially offered valuable ecosystem services for regional prehistoric societies even during the desiccation period. Finally, colluvial coverage of the lake sediments during the last centuries could have been linked with hydrological extremes during the Little Ice Age. Our study demonstrates that the Holocene hydrological balance of the Shiraki Plain was and is situated near a major hydrological threshold, making the landscape very sensitive to small-scale human or natural influences with severe consequences for local societies. Furthermore, seismites in the studied sediments do not indicate an influence of earthquakes on the main and late phases of Late Bronze/Early Iron Age settlement. Altogether, our study underlines the high value of multi-disciplinary approaches to investigate human-environmental interactions and paleoseismicity in drylands on millennial to centennial time scales.

I området Ren i Bollnäs kommun ska exploatering av ett nytt bostadsområde ske utifrån detaljplan Ren 30:1. Vanligtvis genomförs hydrologisk modellering med nationella höjdmodellen (NH) som underlag inför exploatering. Med hjälp av metoder som skyfallskartering kan risken för översvämning och dess eventuella konsekvenser förutses. NH tillhandahålls av Lantmäteriet och finns tillgänglig som punktmoln och 2 m raster och kan användas som underlag för hydrologiska modelleringar. NH lämpar sig bäst för nationell och regional planering som ska göras översiktligt på grund av punkttätheten som är förhållandevis låg. Syftet med den här studien var att undersöka olika underlag för hydrologisk modellering genom att jämföra NH mot digitala höjdmodeller från data insamlat med unmanned aerial system (UAS) på flyghöjderna 80 och 120 m. UAS-flygningarna utfördes med en drönare av modellen DJI Phantom 4 Pro V2.0 som samlade in höjddata fotogrammetriskt. Bearbetning, georeferering och skapande av höjdmodell utfördes i programvarorna Agisoft Photoscan och ESRI ArcGIS. GNSS med nätverks-RTK användes för inmätning av flygsignaler och kontrollprofiler. Hydrologisk modellering genomfördes med beräkningar av flödesriktning och flödesackumulation på underlag från NH och flygdata insamlat med UAS i ArcGIS. På alla underlag genomfördes skyfallskarteringar i Caesar Lisflood-FP. Eftersom Caesar Lisflood-FP hade en begränsning för hur stora mängder data som kunde hanteras ändrades cellstorleken på rastren till 1 m istället för 0,5 m, NH utvärderades i originalstorleken 2 m.Med UAS erhölls en högre punkttäthet och utifrån det kunde ett mer högupplöst raster på 0,5 m skapas jämfört med NH med en rasterstorlek på 2 m. Kontroll av höjddata från 120 m och 80 m visade att den lägre flyghöjden genererade en höjdmodell med högre noggrannhet. Utvärdering av överlapp vid skyfallskartering och vattendjup visade att data insamlat med UAS från 120 m och 80 m överensstämde med 96,7 % för vattenutbredning och största vattendjupen var 0,51 m och 0,48 m. Mellan NH och UAS-data fanns större skillnader i både vattendjup och utbredning. Slutsatsen i den här studien blev att olika underlag påverkar den hydrologisk modelleringen genom att t.ex. flödesriktning, vattendjup och utbredning avviker beroende på vilket underlag som används (UAS eller NH) men även upplösning och flyghöjd. / In the area Ren in Bollnäs municipality, development of a new residential area shall take place based on detailed development plan Ren 30: 1. Hydrological modeling with the national height model (NH) is usually carried out as a basis for development. Using methods such as mapping rainfall, the risk of flooding and its possible consequences can be predicted. NH is available at Lantmäteriet as point cloud and 2 m grid and can be used as a basis for hydrological modeling. NH is best suited for national and regional planning to be done briefly, because of the point density that is relatively low. The purpose of this study was to investigate different data sources for hydrological modeling by comparing NH against digital height models collected with unmanned aerial system (UAS) at flight heights of 80 and 120 m. The UAS flights were performed using the model DJI Phantom 4 Pro V2.0 which collected height data photogrammetric. Processing, geo-referencing and creation of height model were performed in the Agisoft Photoscan and ESRI ArcGIS software. GNSS with network RTK was used for surveying flight signals and control profiles. Hydrological modeling was carried out with calculations of flow direction and flow accumulation based on NH and UAS data in ArcGIS. Rainfall modeling were carried out in Caesar Lisflood-FP. Since Caesar Lisflood-FP had a limit on how large amounts of data could be handled, the cell size of the raster was changed to 1 m instead of 0.5 m, NH was evaluated in the original size 2 m. A higher point density was obtained with UAS and due to that, a higher resolution grid of 0.5 m could be created compared to NH with a grid size of 2 m. Control of height data from 120 m and 80 m showed that the lower flight height generated a height model with higher accuracy. The evaluation of rainfall mapping and water depth showed that data collected with UAS from 120 m and 80 m corresponded to 96.7% in water extent, and the largest water depths were 0.51 and 0.48 m. Between NH and the two UAS data, there were greater differences in both water depth and extent. The conclusion in this study was that different basis affect the hydrological modeling by for example flow direction, water depth and water spread differ depending on the data source (UAS or NH) as well on the resolution used, and the flight height.

No description available.