This study is among the first to provide insight into the assessment of the Swedish central bank’s (Riksbank) three unconventional monetary policies (UMPs) and their influence on Swedish commercial banks. The three UMPs include forward guidance (FG), quantitative easing (QE) and negative interest rate policy (repo rate). Riksbank introduced the UMPs in order to revive inflation and support Sweden’s economic recovery. The banks’ ability to certainly forecast their operations is highly dependent on the communication availed by the Riksbank on its expected future monetary policies through FG. QE is paramount because this is when commercial banks sell government bonds to the Riksbank. Repo rate determines interest rates set by banks. Four indicators (uncertainty, government bond yields, bank interest rates, borrowing and lending) were used in this study to investigate the perception of the commercial banks on the three UMPs. There are limited studies on Swedish banks’ perception of the UMPs which leaves a research gap in this area.Previous studies indicate that dominant banks in terms of asset shares and deposits are more sensitive to monetary policy shocks. The four dominant commercial banks studied include: Nordea, Handelsbanken, Swedbank and Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken. This thesis considers the evidence of the results from previous empirical studies. Empirical material for this study was collected through semi-structured interviews from respondents by the Riksbank and the four commercial banks. A deductive approach was used to interpret the information collected.Our results presents various perceptions of the dominant commercial banks on the three UMPs in relation to the four indicators. Some commercial banks perceived the increased transparency and clarity during the increased FG to have reduced their uncertainty. Other banks perceived that FG had increased their uncertainty. They questioned the credibility of the FG since they could not predict Riksbank’s monetary policies with the FG availed. In regards to the perception of QE on uncertainty, an increased signalling channel during QE implementation had resulted in a decline of their uncertainty since they were experiencing a surplus of liquidity in the banking sector. However, they stated other factors that increased market volatility during QE. The increased market volatility during QE increased their uncertainty. The four commercial banks agreed that the demand for government bonds increased while the yields of the government bonds declined. They perceived these changes to have been influenced by QE. The commercial banks’ lending, deposit and interbank interest rates have declined systematically correlating the trend of the declining repo rate. The four banks experienced a decline in their average net interest income, an improved flow of credit through higher lending volumes and stable lending margins to households and firms. Commercial banks perceived these changes to have resulted from the declining market interest rates because of the negative repo rate.Riksbank can use this study to assess the effectiveness of its UMPs on commercial banks based on the perception of the employees from these respective banks. This study discusses implications of the findings for commercial banks and the Riksbank, as well as academics in the realm of implementations and influences of UMPs.

Tvirtos tarpvalstybinės ir nacionalinės tarpbankinės rinkos yra svarbios gerai veikiančioms finansų sistemoms. Neprižiūrimos tarpbankinės pozicijos gali sukelti domino efektą. Paprastai tarpbankinė skolinimo rinka prisideda prie finansų rinkų efektyvumo, ji atlieka svarbų vaidmenį užtikrinant likvidumą visai finansų sistemai. Būtent šioje rinkoje, bankai skolinasi ir skolina lėšas tarpusavyje, taip suteikdami likvidžias lėšas kitam bankui kuriam tuo metu reikia. Tačiau tarpbankinės paskolų rinkos yra neapdraustos, tokiu būdu jų poveikis skolininkams yra didelis, nes jie yra neapsaugoti. Darbe sprendžiama problema – kaip teisingai vertinti valstybės tarpbankinę rinką, jos sandorius, ir kaip jie priklauso nuo kitų finansinių rinkų. Tyrimo objektas – 2008-2010 m. Lietuvos finansinių institucijų tarpbankiniai sandoriai. Tyrimo tikslas – atlikti vidutinių tarpbankinių skolinimo sandorių sumų Lietuvoje 2008 – 2011 metais ekonometrinę analizę ir atlikti prognozę. Siekiant įgyvendinti šį tikslą, išsikelti šie uždaviniai: 1. Išanalizuoti finansinių institucijų veiklos įtaką ekonomikai. 2. Išnagrinėti finansinių institucijų priežiūros ypatumus. 3. Išanalizuoti finansinių institucijų sisteminės rizikos valdymo teorinius ir empirinius tyrimus. 4. Išanalizuoti veiksnius, kurie daro įtaką vidutinėms tarpbankinio skolinimo sandorių sumoms. 5. Sudaryti vidutinių tarpbankinio skolinimo sandorių sumų Lietuvoje ekonometrinį modelį. Šiame darbe iškeltos hipotezės: 1. Tarpbankinių sandorių... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / Strong cross border and national interbank market are important for well-functioning financial systems. Unsupervised interbank exposures may lead to a domino effect. Usually interbank lending market is contributing to the efficiency of financial markets, it plays an important role in the market to ensure liquidity in the financial system as a whole. In this market, banks borrow and lend money among themselves, and providing liquidity to another bank which at the time of need. However, the interbank lending markets are not covered, so their impact on borrowers is high, because they are ex-posed. Main problem of final master’s work - how to correctly assess the state inter-bank market, the transactions and how they depend on other financial markets. The object of research – 2008-2010 Li-thuanian financial institutions' interbank transactions. The purpose of work – a medium-sized inter-bank lending transactions in amounts of Lithuania 2008 - 2011 was an econometric analysis and estimates. Tasks of the work: 1. Analyze the financial institutions in the economy. 2. Examine the features of supervision of financial institutions. 3. Analyze the financial institution of systemic risk management theory and em-pirical research. 4. Analyze the factors that influence medium-sized inter-bank lending transaction amounts. 5. Develop a medium-sized inter-bank lending transactions in Lithuania amounts of an eco-nometric model. The hypothesis of the paper: 1. Volume of interbank transactions... [to full text]

Zombie banks are banks that are practically insolvent but continue to exist through hiding bad loans on their balance sheet. This can be achieved by rolling over bad loans instead of writing them off, a process known as forbearance lending, zombie lending or evergreening. Zombie banks have received increased attention of late, not least because of the sovereign debt and banking crisis in Europe. This follows other banking crises in the US and Japan which have equally seen an increased number of bank failures, and where insolvent companies have been kept alive by banks. This study aims to give a theoretical assessment of the phenomenon around zombie banks and forbearance lending. Although zombie banks are the focus of a wide public debate, the existing research has not been able to fully explain many aspects around them, such as the several motives for forbearance lending, the impact of forbearance lending on the overall portfolio of zombie banks, or the right policy response in dealing with them. In light of this, the study presents three models that simulate the behavior of banks when rolling over bad loans. These models offer insights into the causes and effects of zombie banking, and also allow us to analyze the context of policy measures by the government and the central bank. To put the models into the right context, the study also provides a detailed overview of the theoretical and empirical literature as well as the practical experience with zombie banks and forbearance lending in Japan and Europe.

This study analyzes validity of the relative purchasing power parity (PPP) and the uncovered interest rate parity (IRP) theories for the dollar/euro exchange rate. The period of analysis is from 1990 to 2003. The dollar/euro exchange rate represents the currencies of a country, the USA, and a region, the Euro Area. The basic data needed for this study are the dollar/euro exchange rate, and the inflation and the interest rates for the USA and the Euro Area. Since the Euro Area was officially formed on January 1st, 1999, we had difficulty in finding the data for the Euro Area. For the lacking Euro Area data, synthetic values are created by using the individual data of Euro Area countries. These synthetic values are treated as the equivalents of the actual values and are used in the parity implied dollar/euro exchange rate calculations. The parity implied dollar/euro exchange rates are compared with the actual dollar/euro exchange rates. Our results indicate that the parity implied dollar/euro exchange rates are statistically significantly different from the actual dollar/euro exchange rates. In other words, both the PPP and the IRP theories do not hold for the dollar/euro exchange rate.

This study investigates the validity of the real exchange rate-real interest rate differential (RERI) relationship for a sample of twenty-three developing and developed countries. The results based on the Johansen cointegration analysis suggest the validity of the long-run RERI relationship only for a small number of countries including Canada, Italy, Switzerland, Belgium, Chile, Israel and Norway. Real interest rate differentials are found to be positively associated with real exchange rates in the long-run for every country except Israel. The results of the weak exogeneity tests suggest that real exchange rates are the adjusting variables for Italy, Switzerland, Belgium and Israel. Consistent with an endogenous response of domestic interest rates to a real exchange rate shock policy rule, real interest rate differentials are found to be endogenous for the parameters of the cointegration vector for Canada, Chile and Norway.

本研究以保險事業發展中心之資料分析各種不同因子如年度、性別、保額、有無體檢、保費繳別、保單年度及利差、利率等對脫退率之影響，並將其中較具顯著影響的因子納入脫退率模型之建立，期望能藉此模型準確估計台灣壽險公司生死合險、終身壽險以及定期壽險之脫退率，進而幫助壽險公司之財務規劃。 自本研究之分析發現其中最具影響力之因子為保單生效後之保單年度，因此以此為主軸建立脫退率模型，接著，亦考量利差以及利率所呈現的趨勢於其中分別建立保單年度利差模型以及保單年度利率模型，此外，更完整考量本研究中脫退率相關因素，以羅吉斯迴歸方法建立模型。最後將此四種模型應用於壽險公司準備金之提存，以生死合險為例模擬公司現金流量，發現準備金之分配如同 Tsai et al.(2002)受利率風險影響甚鉅，而加入本研究所建立之四種脫退率模型模擬後，反而減少了公司未來所須面臨的利率風險，其中又以保單年度模型影響最大，而第四種脫退率模型不同於Tsai et al.根據台灣壽險經驗加入所有具影響之因素，其模擬結果介於保單年度模型以及保單年度利率模型間，可發現考量因素之不同對脫退率影響甚鉅，繼而影響準備金之提存。 / In this article, we focus on the causes and the features of lapse rate including year, sex, size, underwriting method, premium payment mode, policy year, interest rate and interest rate difference by collecting and analyzing the empirical data of endowment, whole life insurance and term life insurance in Taiwan from Taiwan Insurance Institute. Then we take factors that have effect with lapse rate into account to establish model, and we hope to accurately estimate the lapse rate of endowment, whole life insurance and term life insurance in Taiwan by these models, and assist the life insurance companies’ financial decision making. After analyzing, we find the most effective factor of this study is the policy year, which means the year after issuing, so we take this one as our primary consideration of our lapse rate model. Then we add the interest rate difference and interest rate in the further two models. Beside this, we further consider the important factors in the part of analysis and put it in the fourth model by using Logistic Regression Model. Finally, we apply these four models to the policy reserve of life insurance company by taking endowment policy as an example simulating the cash flow. We find that the results was same as Tsai et al. (2002) that distribution of policy reserve is strongly affected by interest rate risk, but can decrease interest rate risk the company have to face in the future by adding our lapse rate models, especially the policy year model, and the fourth lapse rate model which count into most factors was not the same as Tsai et al. producing result between policy year model and the policy- interest rate model. From the results of all the lapse rate model. We can know that considering different factors in the model will bring such distinct contribution amount of reserve for life insurance company.

-Exchange Rate Dynamics under Financial Market FrictionsThis paper extends Dornbusch's overshooting model by proposing "generalized interest parity condition", which assumes sluggish adjustment on the asset market. The exchange rate model under the generalized interest parity condition is able to reproduce the delayed overshooting of nominal exchange rates and the hump-shaped response to monetary shocks of both nominal and real exchange rates.-Electoral Cycle of Exchange Rate in KoreaThis paper empirically investigates the real exchange rate behavior around elections in Korea. We find that the real exchange rate depreciates more before the elections but there is no clear pattern found after the elections. Interestingly, this result is the opposite of the electoral cycle found in Latin American countries. To explain this results we should consider the difference between economic backgrounds of Korea and Latin American countries.-Exchange Rate Regime, Capital Market Openness and Monetary Policy; The Trilemma in KoreaThis paper tests the trilemma proposition by performing an empirical study of Korea. Korea has distinct periods of all combinations of exchange rate regime and capital market openness in trilemma: pegged exchange rate regime under capital controls, pegged exchange rate regime under free capital mobility, and floating exchange rate regime under free capital mobility. We check whether monetary autonomy exists in each of the three different combinations. We find that monetary autonomy existed over the periods with capital controls and the periods with floating exchange rate regime. For the periods with the pegged exchange rate regime and free capital mobility, monetary autonomy was limited. In addition, we identify that just before the financial crisis the government pursued autonomic monetary policy under pegged exchange rate regime and free capital mobility, thereby defying the trilemma.

Zugl.: Frankfurt (Main), Univ., Diplomarbeit, 2006

Univ., Diss.--Bern, 2007.

<p>The purpose of this thesis is to examine the role of financial markets and institutions on the economical growth of a developing country. The IRS (interest rate spread) is used as the main tool, to examine Chile and Taiwan regarding their economical growth between 1988 and 2007. The reason Taiwan and Chile have been chosen is due to vast differences in the geographical location, and even divergence in political and economical system of these countries.</p><p>The research method that has been chosen for this thesis is a quantitative method. The economic theory is mainly based on secondary data. The method of data presentation and analysis are manly descriptive even though the layout of the thesis is more of an explanation research. The carculations are made with the statictical computer program SPSS. The results of the study are expressed mathematically and in sets of tables. In order to determinate the correlation between IRS and macroeconomic factors and the correlation between IRS and Economy growth, the magnitude and trend of the IRS is analysed from 1988 to 2007. To test the hypothesis, the OLS regression and panel data model is used.</p><p>The theoretical part is the base of the empirical part. The theoretical part is needed in order to understand and later on analyze the results from research on Chile and Taiwan. Different aspects of economical growth are defined to make it easier to understand and follow the thesis thoroughly. The financial markets and institutions are discussed very shortly. To understand the growth theory, Solow growth model is discussed, which is one of the most important models concerning the economical growth.</p><p>The empirical part of the thesis is dealing with the test of IRS against some macro economical factors such as; costumer price index (CPI), Exchange Rate (EX), Export Volume (EXP) and Money Supply (MO) of two different countries; Taiwan and Chile. The study provides evidence of the correlation between interest rate spread and the macroeconomical factors. The result shows that the correlation between interest rate spread and the macroeconomics factors vary from country to country. This mainly depends on the difference in political situation, the different economic and political policies of various goverments, the high inflation rates and the market structure of the countries. The value of the coefficients gives the magnitude of adjustment in the event that the systems move out of equilibrium. It also provides some evidence that there is a significant relationship between interst rate spread and economical growth. The test results show clearly that in order to gain a sustainable development and economical growth the financial markets must perform well.</p>