Three weather sensitive multinomial logit models are estimated using the 2001 Transportation Tomorrow Survey in order explore the relationship between weather and home-based work trips within the City of Toronto, focusing on active modes of transportation. The data is restricted to non-captive commuters who have the option of alternating between all five basic modes of auto driver, auto passenger, transit, bike and walk with change in weather. Daily trip rates in various weather conditions are assessed. The combined effect of the daily trip rate and mode choice analysis is applied to several climate change scenarios. A 6oC increase in temperature can increase cycling trips by 17%, and reduce auto-passenger trips by 7%. A 20% increase or decrease in precipitation, however, is found to have much smaller impacts on all modes. Overall, the results confirm that impact of weather on active modes of transportation is significant enough to deserve attention at the research, data collection and planning levels.

Three weather sensitive multinomial logit models are estimated using the 2001 Transportation Tomorrow Survey in order explore the relationship between weather and home-based work trips within the City of Toronto, focusing on active modes of transportation. The data is restricted to non-captive commuters who have the option of alternating between all five basic modes of auto driver, auto passenger, transit, bike and walk with change in weather. Daily trip rates in various weather conditions are assessed. The combined effect of the daily trip rate and mode choice analysis is applied to several climate change scenarios. A 6oC increase in temperature can increase cycling trips by 17%, and reduce auto-passenger trips by 7%. A 20% increase or decrease in precipitation, however, is found to have much smaller impacts on all modes. Overall, the results confirm that impact of weather on active modes of transportation is significant enough to deserve attention at the research, data collection and planning levels.

We address the questions on what determines local government proliferation, specifically on the impact of intergovernmental transfers on proliferation. On exploring the determinants of proliferation, we provide a more elaborate empirical technique than exists in the literature by employing panel binary outcome, survival regression, as well as count analysis to capture the time varying effect from intergovernmental transfers. We also examine the impact of proliferation on service delivery outcomes and construct channels by which the policy may affect the outcomes in the education and health sectors. We apply panel difference-in-difference estimation and we uniquely identify the different treatment group and thus control for the plausible differential impact on outcomes in regards to changes in intergovernmental transfers. On the determinants of local government formation, there are likely competing effects across transfers on the decision to proliferate as well as on the extent of fragmentation given that we find (1) the lump-sum conditional grants positively influence the probability of proliferation, (2) a province with higher median share of equalization grants associates with higher number of local governments, (3) higher equalization grants implies a longer duration to the proliferation event, and (4) higher tax sharing in the proliferated local governments reflects higher stability where stability refers to the longer duration to the sequential proliferation event. The findings suggest the tactical central-local behavior may be present, however, the support of rent-seeking hypothesis on proliferation should not be generalized to overall system of transfers. On the impact from the proliferation policy, the education and health outcomes estimations provide mixed results within the treatment group. The findings shed light on the current practice of administrative or political decentralization, specifically on the competing local-central preferences within each sector on measured service delivery outcomes. The results from difference-in-difference (DID) estimations show support on attainment of education outcome in new local governments represented by a reduction in the dropout rate but not on the quality of education in terms of higher students’ tests scores even though there is a relatively higher conditional grants allocated to the proliferated local governments. Meanwhile, in terms of infant mortality rate, we only find evidence of improvement in infant mortality on the originating local government but not on the new local governments. Controlling for selectivity and production function covariates have not changed the pattern of the impact.

This thesis presents the results of an investigation into the evaluation of a selected test bridge using instrumentation to obtain site-specific factors contributing to the evaluation, with the ultimate objective of improving the estimate of the bridges reliability in order to assess allowable loading more accurately. The experimental portion of the research program involved instrumenting the test bridge with strain gauges, and recording field measurements using two forms of loading. The analytical portion of the research program involved the analysis of the bridge in the as-designed state, based on the design drawings and specification, followed by a re-analysis of the bridge using the site-specific factors measured on-site. The bridge was evaluated using methods outlined in the Canadian Highway Bridge Design Code CAN/CSA-S6-00 (CSA 2000). <p>The test bridge is located near the community of Hudson Bay, Saskatchewan. The bridge is constructed of steel-reinforced concrete, and there are three, three-span arch-shaped girders. There are also external steel bars added after initial construction to increase the midspan bending moment resistance. In total, 45 strain gauges were placed on the middle spans of the three girders to record strain induced by two forms of loading: controlled loading, in which a truck of known weight and dimensions was driven over the bridge in a number of pre-determined configurations, and in-situ loading, in which normal truck traffic was used. The current allowable loading on the bridge is a gross vehicle weight of 62.5 t, although increasing the allowable loading to 110 t has been proposed, along with two strengthening alternatives to make this increased loading feasible. <p>To provide a base-line analysis for comparison purposes, the bridge was first evaluated based strictly on information taken from the design drawings and specifications. The evaluation was performed using the load and resistance factor method, in which load and resistance factors were used to account for uncertainty, as well as by the mean load method, in which statistical properties of the variables parameters included in the design were used to account for uncertainty. The result of the load and resistance factor method was a live load capacity factor, indicating the overall rating of the bridge. In addition to the live load capacity factor, the mean load method was also used to determine the reliability index. The results of the as-designed analysis showed that the mean load method gave more conservative estimates of the bridge capacity. Furthermore, it was determined that, based on these assessments, the bridge would not have sufficient capacity to carry the proposed 110 t truck loads.<p>The bridge was re-evaluated using site-specific factors with the mean load method. Using the measured strains, statistical parameters were determined for live load effects, distribution factors, dynamic load allowance, and resistance. Statistical parameters that could not be obtained readily through testing were obtained from the literature. The results indicated that code-predicted estimates of a number of factors were highly conservative. Flexural and shear load effects in the girders were found to be less than 15% of the theoretical predictions, as a result of apparent arching action in the girders, generating significant axial forces. For this arching action to occur, horizontal restraint was required at the supports, either through unanticipated restraint in the bearings, or tension tie action of the tensile girder reinforcement. Furthermore, the dynamic amplification was found to be less than 1.0. The resulting reliability indices indicated that the bridge would be safe under the proposed increased allowable loading (110 t). <p>Finite element models were used to confirm the dynamic amplification observations and examine the effects of different degrees of bearing restraint. The model showed results similar to those measured for dynamic amplification. It was found that if the bearings were to become completely fixed against horizontal translation, the bridge would become overloaded as a result of increased shear effects, demonstrating the need for proper bearing maintenance. <p>An analysis of relative costs was completed to determine the most cost-effective solution for hauling logs. Assumptions were made regarding truck and maintenance and operating costs. The results indicated that the most economic solution was to use the method outlined in the research to increase the allowable loading on the bridge to 110 t, over the strengthening alternatives and simply leaving the bridge in the current state.

Impacts of high kinetic energy massive gold clusters (~ 500 keV Au400+4) exhibit significantly enhanced secondary ion yields relative to traditional atomic or polyatomic primary ions (e.g. Au3 and C60). The one-of-a-kind instrument used to generate these hypervelocity nanoparticles (~2 nm diameter, ~30 km/s) and monitor emissions from their impacts (SIMS) is described in detail for the first time. The projectile range of 520 keV Au400+4 is measured to be ~20 nm in amorphous carbon and projectile disintegration is observed at the exit of carbon foils as thin as 5 nm. These experiments were performed by monitoring carbon cluster ions emitted from both sides of a foil impacted by the projectile. Surprisingly, clusters emitted in the forward direction are larger than those emitted backward. The composition of the mass spectra is shown to depend on both the thickness of the foil and the size of the projectile. Secondary ion yields for a variety of materials including peptides, lipids, drugs, polymers, inorganic salts, and various small molecules have been measured and molecular ion yields for many of these species exceed unity. Multiplicity measurements show that up to seven molecular ions of leucine-enkephalin (YGGFL) can be detected from the impact of a single projectile. SI yields measured with ~500 keV Au400+4 are generally one to two orders of magnitude greater than those obtained with 130 keV Au3+ and 50 keV C60+ projectiles. The high molecular ion yields observed suggest the internal energies of ions emitted from massive cluster impacts are relatively low. In order to address this hypothesis, a novel method for measuring secondary ion internal energies was developed using a series of benzylpyridinium salts. Using this method, the internal energies were measured to be ~0.19 eV/atom, which is a factor of five less than that seen in atomic-SIMS. Sample metallization is shown to be ineffective for further increasing secondary ion yields with Au400, despite observations from previous molecular dynamic simulations. Coincidence mass spectrometry is applied to nanometric chemical segregations found on samples coated with thin layers of gold and silver. It is possible to measure the surface coverages of the metallic and underlying organic layers using mass spectrometry in a non-imaging mode.

Helicopters play a unique role in modern aviation providing a varied range of benefits to society and satisfying the need for fast mobility, particularly in metropolitan areas. However, environmental concerns associated with the operation of rotorcraft have increased due to envisaged growth of air traffic. Even though helicopter operations represent a small percentage of the total greenhouse gas emissions resulting from all human activities, helicopters are categorised as a main source of local air pollution around airports and urban areas. New rotorcraft designs, innovative aero engines and all-electrical systems are being developed in order to diminish the impact that aviation has on the global and local environment. However, advanced rotorcraft designs and breakthrough technologies might take decades to be in service. Additionally, there is a large number of polluting rotorcraft that are in use and must be progressively replaced. Therefore, in the near-term, improvements to minimise air quality degradation (around airports and metropolitan areas) may be possible from better use of existing rotorcraft by focusing on trajectory and mission profile management. In this research project, a parametric study was carried out in order to assess the environmental impact, in terms of fuel burn and emissions, that the operation of light single-engine helicopters causes under different flight conditions. The results of this assessment were used as a basis to carry out a single and multi-objective optimisation for minimum fuel consumption and air pollutant emissions. Oxides of nitrogen, carbon monoxide and unburnt hydrocarbons were considered as trade-off parameters. In order to achieve this, a multidisciplinary assessment framework, intended to generate outputs for estimating the fuel burn and emissions during the operation of conventional helicopters, was developed. Simulink® Design Optimization™ software was incorporated into the framework in order to enhance the benefits of this tool.A baseline mission profile was proposed in order to validate the potential of mission profile management. Different case studies were carried out changing flight parameters at every segment of the baseline mission. The single and multi-objective optimisation proved that favourable reductions in fuel burn may be attainable at the expense of a slight increase of NOX emissions during the entire mission. If reductions of more than 3% in block fuel burn are to be achievable in the short term for a single helicopter, savings for air transport companies are expected to be significant if mission profile management is considered for a whole fleet of helicopters.

El objetivo principal de esta tesis doctoral es el de contribuir al desarollo y evaluación en la aplicación y exposición de pesticidas en plantas y su impacto sobre la salud humana y los ecosistemas. Los modelos ambientales usados para la evaluación de impacto en el análisis de ciclo de vida y en analisis de riesgo ambiental relacionan las emisiones con su impacto, combinando el destino y la exposición estimada y relacionandolo con información toxicológica. Los pesticidas liberados en aire, agua y suelos llegan al cuerpo humano a través de los alimentos, principalmente por la ingestión de las partes comestibles de los vegetales. Por dicha razón, es de gran importacia el desarollo de métodos para el análisis de residuos tóxicos en productos agrícolas. De aquí emergen las siguientes preguntas:1. ¿Como puede ser modelada la cantidad residual y el lugar de destino de los pesticidas aplicados por aire en los invernaderos? ¿Cual es su compotamiento dinámico y como afecta la concentración residual en las partes comestibles de los vegetales?2. ¿Como puede medirse y modelarse la degradación de los pesticidas tanto en superficie como en el interior de vegetación?3. ¿Como puede hacerse una estimación de la vida media específica tanto en superficie como en el interior de vegetales partiendo de la información de degradación en el suelo?4. ¿Como puede desarollarse un indicador de riesgo con el cual se puedan analizar comparativamente pesticidas basado en el lugar de aplicación, tiempo de exposición y características toxicológicas?Después de una breve introdución al análisis medioambiental y los problemas específicamente relacionados con la aplicación de pesticidas y sus características en el capítulo uno, en el capítulo dos se propone un acercamiento a través del modelado de residuos de pesticidas en tomates cultivados en invernadero. Este modelo de destino y exposición tiene en consideración el tiempo transcurrido entre la aplicación, la cosecha y el consumo, la absorción del spray depositado en la superficie de las plantas, las propiedades de transporte a través de la cutícula, la degradación en el interior de la misma planta y perdidas debido al procesado del alimento. El modelo fue validado usando datos experimentales obtenidos a partir de ensayos de campo. También se presenta la fracción de pesticida ingerido por humanos debido al consumo de tomate mostrando un escenario realista de la exposición humana a estos productos.En el capítulo tercero se presentan dos algoritmos genéricos para la estimación de (i) la vida media específica de pesticidas en superficie y (ii) en el interior de las plantas, usados en el modelo de destino y exposición. También se propone una rutina de extrapolación para estimar la vida media de plaguicidas en superficie, basándose en un factor de conversión cuya base de cálculo parte de la vida media de estos en suelos. Más adelante se presenta un método de estimación tentativa para el cálculo de la vida media de pesticidas en el interior de las plantas, básandose en datos experimentales.El capítulo cuatro es una prolongación de los capítulos dos y tres. Los resultados antes obtenidos, se combinan aquí con un nuevo método de análisis experimental para medir absorción, transporte y persistencia de pesticidas en tomates tratados por (i) spray foliar estándar y (ii) aplicación en raíces por riego por goteo. Un modelo dinámico de absorción de pesticidas por raíz trata de estimar la dependencia temporal de la concentración del contaminante en los frutos. Finalmente, los resultados experimentales son comparados con el modelo en terminos de ingestión de fracción de pesticida por parte de la población humana. En esta investigación se intenta evaluar el comportamiento medioambiental de los pesticidas comparando los diferentes métodos de aplicación de un mismo ingrediente activo.El capítulo cinco ilustra el desarollo de un nuevo método llamado PestScreen, el cual calcula el nivel relativo de riesgo de pesticidas con el fin de clasificarlos ascendentemente dependiendo de su impacto. Esta aproximación es un método de estimación del nivel relativo de riesgo y permite comparar la peligrosidad tanto a nivel de salud humana como de impacto medioambiental, de diferentes tipos de pesticidas, a través de una categorización. Este método se desarolla como una herramienta para la evaluación e identificación de pesticidas con peligrosidad medioambiental usados en la agricultura. PestScreen incorpora tanto su efecto tóxico como su destino y exposición en varios compartimentos medioambientales. Esto se realiza combinando medidas de toxicidad química con la cantidad liberada, la persistencia medioambiental, el potencial de transporte en un radio amplio y la fracción ingerida por la población humana. En el capítulo seis los principales resultados son presentados y resumidos, finalmente se sugieren recomendaciones para investigaciones futuras. / The overall goal of this dissertation is to contribute to the development of best available practice in fate and the exposure assessment of pesticides for evaluating their impacts on human health and ecosystems. Environmental models used in Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) and Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) relate emissions to impacts by combining fate and exposure estimates with toxicological assessment data. Pesticides released to air, water, soil and plants enter the human body through food commodities, particularly through the ingestion of arable parts of plants. Therefore, specific methods to assess the presence of residues in agricultural products are of importance for human exposure assessment. This raises the following questions:1. How can the fate (from air and soil) of pesticides in/on plants cultivated in greenhouses be measured and modelled? How does dynamic behaviour affect the final residues in arable parts of plants?2. How can the degradation of pesticides on plant surfaces and within plants be measured and modelled? 3. How can a substance specific half-life in/on plants be estimated from soil degradation data using extrapolation routines?4. How can a risk indicator for comparative assessment of pesticides be developed using fate, exposure, and toxicity characteristics?After a short introduction to environmental assessment approaches and the specific problems related to the application of pesticides and their characteristics in Chapter 1, Chapter 2 proposes an approach for modelling pesticide residues in greenhouse tomato plants. This fate and exposure model considers the time between pesticide application and harvest, the time between harvest and consumption, the absorption of spray deposit on plant surfaces, transfer properties through the cuticle, degradation inside the plant and loss due to food processing. The model is validated with experimental data which was obtained from field trials conducted in the Catalan Institute for Food and Agricultural Research and Technology (Institut de Recerca i Tecnologia Agroalimentàries; IRTA) in Cabrils (Barcelona). Human intake fractions of pesticides due to ingestion of tomatoes representing a realistic scenario of human exposure to pesticide residues in foods are presented.In Chapter 3, two generic estimation routines for substance specific half-lives of pesticides (i) on plant surfaces and (ii) within plants to be used in fate and exposure models are presented. First, an extrapolation routine for the estimation of pesticide half-lives on plant surfaces based on a conversion factor from half-lives of pesticides in soil is proposed. Furthermore, a tentative estimation method for the calculation of metabolism half-lives of pesticides in inner parts of plants based on experimental data is presented.Chapter 4 presents a follow-up of Chapter 2 and Chapter 3. Previous results are combined with new experimental assessment to measure the uptake, translocation and persistence behaviour of pesticides in tomato fruits treated by (i) standard foliar spray application and (ii) soil application using direct localised drip irrigation into root zone. A dynamic root uptake model for pesticides aiming at the estimation of time dependent contaminant concentrations in fruits is proposed. Finally, experimental results are compared with model estimates in terms of human population intake fractions of pesticides. These investigations aim to evaluate the environmental performance of pesticides when the same active ingredient is applied to crops by different application techniques. Chapter 5 illustrates the development of a new method entitled PestScreen, to calculate the relative risk level of pesticides with the aim of ranking them from lowest to highest degree of concern. The approach is an estimation method of relative risk levels and allows comparing environmental and human health risks of specific pesticide types through their ranking. The method is developed to serve as an analytical tool in screening and identification of pesticides of environmental concern used in agriculture. PestScreen incorporates both the toxic effects of pesticides and their fate and exposure characteristics in different compartments of the environment. This is done by combining measures of chemical toxicity pertaining to both human health and the environment with chemical release amounts and information on overall environmental persistence, long-range transport potential and human population intake fractions. In Chapter 6 the most important results are summarized and recommendations for further research are discussed.

This study explores how youth have inspired social change in Canada from 1978 to 2012. The objectives of the research include defining youth-led engagement in Canada, understanding its role as a change agent, and mapping the relationships between strategies and impacts. The goals of this study are to help current and future youth maximize opportunities that are likely to result in the greatest success, as well as increase opportunities for youth to be involved in decision making processes by validating their contributions. The research includes youth who effect change in a variety of contexts from across Canada. Data collection consists of an online media search and supplementary document reviews. A media content analysis methodology is applied to extract the data, while frequencies and cross tabulations in the form of chi-square tests were used to analyze them. The results show a strong relationship between strategies youth use and the impacts that follow. Further, the data show that youth have made some of their most frequent contributions by participating in political processes to address issues of equality, empowerment and social justice. Patterns between youth efforts and long-term changes in society are discussed, and the measurement of impacts is considered. This research measures three types of impacts youth have had on social change: individual, community/interorganizational, and systemic. It highlights the importance of institutionalizing the inclusion of youth as part of decision making processes in Canada, and validates the argument that youth have important contributions to make to our diverse society.

En 1996, la Nouvelle-Zélande réforme son mode de scrutin. Alors qu'avant cette date les députés étaient élus avec un mode de scrutin majoritaire à un tour de type britannique, les élections à partir de 1996 se tiennent sous un mode de scrutin mixte d'inspiration allemande. Plusieurs auteurs ont étudié les effets des systèmes électoraux sur les systèmes des partis et sur les institutions politiques mais ces études restaient théoriques puisqu'une réforme majeure comme celle que la Nouvelle-Zélande a vécue ne s'était jamais produite. Nous cherchons donc à savoir qu'est-ce qui a causé cette réforme et quels ont été ses effets sur le système politique. Pour ce faire, nous avons posé deux hypothèses qui ont guidé cette recherche: premièrement, en adoptant un mode de scrutin mixte, les conditions de représentation se sont améliorées pour les citoyens de la Nouvelle-Zélande; et deuxièmement, en adoptant ce mode de scrutin, le pays et son système politique ont vu de nouveaux problèmes institutionnels apparaître. En vérifiant ces hypothèses, nous cherchons également à dégager une tendance sociale ou politique aux causes et aux effets de la réforme. Une crise de confiance envers le politique est à l'origine de la réforme. Cette crise de confiance se canalise envers l'institution la plus visible qui pose problème: le mode de scrutin majoritaire et la représentation qui en découle. Les causes de la réforme sont donc amenées par la population et indiquent une tendance plutôt sociale. Pour ce qui est des effets, ils ont plutôt une tendance politique car ils sont visibles au niveau des relations de pouvoir et des institutions. Parmi ces effets, on note le fait de devoir gouverner en coalition, un système des partis qualifié de bipartite mais faible et un pouvoir exécutif moins fort par rapport au législatif. On en arrive à la conclusion que la réforme a été adoptée pour satisfaire la population mais ce sont les gouvernants qui en ressentent le plus les effets. ______________________________________________________________________________ MOTS-CLÉS DE L’AUTEUR : Nouvelle-Zélande, Réforme électorale, Mode de scrutin mixte, Système des partis, Représentation, Gouvernement de coalition.

Il est bien connu que d'ici les prochaines années, il y aura des changements majeurs dans la structure des âges de la plupart des populations des pays occidentaux. Dans les dernières prévisions réalisées par l'Institut de la statistique du Québec, la proportion des 65 ans et plus doublera en moins de 50 ans au Québec. Ces changements démographiques pourraient entraîner des changements significatifs sur les décisions d'éducation des jeunes. En effet, un bassin de main-d'oeuvre plus petit aura un impact sur les salaires ce qui pourrait influencer les jeunes dans leur décision de poursuivre leurs études. Dans ce mémoire, nous utilisons deux intrants différents pour la firme soit: la main-d'oeuvre scolarisée et la main-d'oeuvre non solarisée. Également, nous intégrerons une offre de travail endogène au modèle. Nous avons utilisé un modèle à générations imbriquées pour deux régions qui ont une composition différente de leur population. Le modèle est composé de trois générations imbriquées qui ont des comportements rationnels afin de choisir un niveau optimal de consommation. La simulation est réalisée en économie fermée et ne permet pas la migration des travailleurs. Nos résultats démontrent que le vieillissement de la population aura un impact négatif sur le niveau d'éducation des travailleurs. Le vieillissement de la population causera une diminution des salaires relatifs des travailleurs éduqués, ce qui décourage les jeunes à obtenir un niveau d'éducation plus élevé. ______________________________________________________________________________ MOTS-CLÉS DE L’AUTEUR : Vieillissement, Éducation, Générations imbriquées.