Em busca da adequação aos requisitos apresentados pelo Acordo de Basiléia, as instituições financeiras estão despendendo esforços para o desenvolvimento de mensurações e processos. Neste contexto se insere o desenvolvimento de modelos quantitativos para às organizações que pretendem se candidatar à abordagem avançada. O problema de pesquisa propõe mensurar o parâmetro de perda de crédito, ou loss given default, em situações em que não existam eventos de inadimplência observados. A literatura a respeito indica a utilização de modelos estruturais para estes cenários: o modelo proposto por Merton (1974) ou suas derivações são largamente empregados na determinação da probabilidade de perdas (probability of default - em inglês) e perdas de credito (loss given default - em inglês). Nesta metodologia a solução é encontrada de maneira implícita, por meio de preços de títulos e ações. Este trabalho aplica o modelo de Merton e verifica implicações deste uso para o calculo da perda de credito, neutra ao risco e implícita, em empresas listadas na Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo (Bovespa). O público foi selecionado no período de dezembro de 2006 a junho de 2013 e, informações como preço e quantidade de ações e valor da dívida contábil foram coletadas. Os principais resultados encontrados, de modo similar a de outros autores, mostram que: (i) a perda de crédito é maior em momentos de instabilidade financeira, como observado em 2008, época em que os preços dos ativos possuíram alta volatilidade, (ii) o maturity, ou duration, utilizado possui grande peso nos valores de perda de crédito: maturity maior, recuperação menor e (iii) quanto maior o peso da dívida contábil no valor da empresa, menor a volatilidade da própria. / In an effort to comply with the Basel Agreement requirements, financial institutions have engaged in developing their own measures and processes. Within that context, quantitative models are being developed for organizations seeking an advanced approach. The research-related problem aims to estimate the credit loss parameter, loss given default, in situations where events of default are not observed. Literature in that respect indicates the utilization of structural models in such scenarios: the model proposed by Merton (1974) or its derivations are widely employed in determining the probability of default and loss given default. In this methodology the solution is found in an implied manner through the price of bonds and equities. This work applies the Merton model and verifies the implications of its use in calculating loss given default, risk neutral and implicit, in companies listed on the São Paulo Stock Exchange (Bovespa). The target populations in the period from December 2006 to June 2013 and such data as stock price, number of outstanding shares and debt book value have been collected. The main results found, in a manner very similar to other authors, demonstrate that: (i) the loss given default is greater at moments of financial instability, as observed in 2008, a time at which asset prices showed high volatility, (ii) the maturity, or duration, has a great influence on loss given default: higher the maturity, lower the recovery, and as well (iii) higher the book´s value debt weight on firm value, the lower is the firm´s value volatility.

Em busca da adequação aos requisitos apresentados pelo Acordo de Basiléia, as instituições financeiras estão despendendo esforços para o desenvolvimento de mensurações e processos. Neste contexto se insere o desenvolvimento de modelos quantitativos para às organizações que pretendem se candidatar à abordagem avançada. O problema de pesquisa propõe mensurar o parâmetro de perda de crédito, ou loss given default, em situações em que não existam eventos de inadimplência observados. A literatura a respeito indica a utilização de modelos estruturais para estes cenários: o modelo proposto por Merton (1974) ou suas derivações são largamente empregados na determinação da probabilidade de perdas (probability of default - em inglês) e perdas de credito (loss given default - em inglês). Nesta metodologia a solução é encontrada de maneira implícita, por meio de preços de títulos e ações. Este trabalho aplica o modelo de Merton e verifica implicações deste uso para o calculo da perda de credito, neutra ao risco e implícita, em empresas listadas na Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo (Bovespa). O público foi selecionado no período de dezembro de 2006 a junho de 2013 e, informações como preço e quantidade de ações e valor da dívida contábil foram coletadas. Os principais resultados encontrados, de modo similar a de outros autores, mostram que: (i) a perda de crédito é maior em momentos de instabilidade financeira, como observado em 2008, época em que os preços dos ativos possuíram alta volatilidade, (ii) o maturity, ou duration, utilizado possui grande peso nos valores de perda de crédito: maturity maior, recuperação menor e (iii) quanto maior o peso da dívida contábil no valor da empresa, menor a volatilidade da própria. / In an effort to comply with the Basel Agreement requirements, financial institutions have engaged in developing their own measures and processes. Within that context, quantitative models are being developed for organizations seeking an advanced approach. The research-related problem aims to estimate the credit loss parameter, loss given default, in situations where events of default are not observed. Literature in that respect indicates the utilization of structural models in such scenarios: the model proposed by Merton (1974) or its derivations are widely employed in determining the probability of default and loss given default. In this methodology the solution is found in an implied manner through the price of bonds and equities. This work applies the Merton model and verifies the implications of its use in calculating loss given default, risk neutral and implicit, in companies listed on the São Paulo Stock Exchange (Bovespa). The target populations in the period from December 2006 to June 2013 and such data as stock price, number of outstanding shares and debt book value have been collected. The main results found, in a manner very similar to other authors, demonstrate that: (i) the loss given default is greater at moments of financial instability, as observed in 2008, a time at which asset prices showed high volatility, (ii) the maturity, or duration, has a great influence on loss given default: higher the maturity, lower the recovery, and as well (iii) higher the book´s value debt weight on firm value, the lower is the firm´s value volatility.

In this thesis, we derive a closed-form approximation to the implied volatility for a European option, assuming that the underlying asset follows the generalized Heston model. A new para- meter is added to the Heston model which constructed the generalized Heston model. Based on the results in Lorig, Pagliarani and Pascucci [11], we obtain implied volatility expansions up to third-order. We conduct numerical studies to check the accuracy of our expansions. More specifically we compare the implied volatilities computed using our expansions to the results by Monte Carlo simulation method. Our numerical results show that the third-order implied volatility expansion provides a very good approximation to the true value.

The most widely used Cost of Capital model is the Capital Asset Pricing Model. The Beta, Which is a key input into the model has proven to be unreliable and provides no correlation with systematic risk. As risk increases, so should the cost of capital of the firm. The Beta is a historic measure of risk and does not capture the future outlook of risk. The future of an organisation and its risk may look very different to the past and therefore the need to calculate the Cost of Capital of a firm based on the future outlook of the firm. The aim of this research was to analyse the different methodologies used to determine the Cost of Capital of a firm in order to determine which models are better ex ante predictor of Cost of Capital in the South African context. Regression analysis was used to make statistical inferences between the measure of risk used and the Cost of Capital model in question. The results of the research has shown that Market Capitalisation and Price to Book ratio are the best proxies for risk when comparing it with the ex ante Cost of Capital models. However, the Three Factor Pricing Model is shown to be the best Cost of Capital model to capture the future outlook of risk. / Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2010. / Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS) / unrestricted

The presented diploma thesis maps the situation of contemporary child's reading. It deals with the factors which form the child reader externally (especially family, school and libraries, or the projects supporting child's reading). The main part of the thesis presents an analysis of the contemporary poetry for children. It examines how the books can influence the readers and motivate them for further reading. For the text analysis, the books of poetry which were awarded in competitions of Zlatá stuha or Magnesia Litera in 2013-2017 were selected as representative samples, namely Poetický slovníček dětem v příkladech, Všelijaké řečičky pro kluky a holčičky and Moře slané vody by Radek Malý, Tetovaná teta by Daniela Fischerová, Vynálezárium by Robin Král and Hlava v hlavě by David Böhm and Ondřej Buddeus. When analyzing the illustrations, attention was paid to the selected books that won the art category of Zlatá stuha and the competition Nejkrásnější česká kniha roku (The Most Beautiful Czech Book of the Year) and to the books representing the model production of the publishing houses of Běžíliška, Meander and series Raketa in publishing house Labyrint. An aspect of illustration was analyzed in the concertina books Rekomando and Ferdinande! by Robin Král and concertina book O čem sní by Petr...

[pt] O presente trabalho busca explorar a previsibilidade na dinâmica temporal em modelos lineares de superfícies de volatilidade implícita estimados para opções de compra de ações brasileiras. Resultados de estudos anteriores, sob a abordagem usualmente empregada de estimação de modelos lineares em função do preço de exercício e do tempo até o vencimento a partir de dados de corte transversal sobre cada contrato disponível em dado instante, como Dumas, Fleming e Whaley (1998), revelam grande instabilidade nos coeficientes estimados ao longo do tempo. Por conseguinte, a incapacidade desta perspectiva em descrever a dinâmica intertemporal da estrutura, contrariando a observação empírica de volatilidade variável no tempo. A partir destas evidências e das conclusões de Heston e Nandi (2000), que reportaram significativa dependência da trajetória para a volatilidade dos retornos do índice S&P 500, Gonçalves e Guidolim (2006), propuseram um modelo em dois estágios, que aplica vetores autoregressivos para capturar a presença de variação temporal dos coeficientes de um modelo linear. A contribuição deste trabalho está em aplicar o Modelo proposto à realidade do mercado brasileiro de opções de ações, incipiente em liquidez e horizonte de negociação se comparado ao mercado norte americano, adaptando critérios a fim de validar sua aplicabilidade neste contexto em termos estatísticos e econômicos. Os resultados comprovam a superioridade desta abordagem em relação a outras comparáveis na literatura, mas não a capacidade de gerar retornos acima da média na presença de custos de transação contra a referência natural da taxa livre de risco. O que sugere a adequação à hipótese de eficiência de mercado. / [en] O The present study aims to explore predictability in temporal dynamics regarding linear models of the implied volatility surfaces estimated for Brazilian stocks options. Previous results, by usual approach of fitting linear models linking implied volatility to time to maturity and moneyness, available for each cross-section of option contracts at a point in time, as in Dumas, Fleming and Whaley (1998), suggest that estimated parameters of such models are highly unstable over time. Therefore, this approach isn t capable of replicating various IVS s shapes, contrary to the empirical evidence of implied volatility varying with options strike price and date of expiration. Based on these evidences and in Heston and Nandi (2000), that exploit the information on path-dependency in volatility contained in the spot S&P 500 index, Gonçalves e Guidolim (2006) proposed a two-stage approach to modeling and forecasting the S&P 500 index options IVS. In the second-stage they model the dynamics of the cross-sectional first-stage coefficients by means of vector autoregression models. The contribution of this work is to apply the proposed model to the reality of the Brazilian stock options, incipient in terms of liquidity and trading horizon dimensions when compared to the U.S. market, adapting criterians to validate its applicability in this context in statistical and economical sense. The results demonstrate the superiority of this approach over comparable literature, but not the ability to generate abnormal profits in the presence of transaction costs in excess of the benchmark of the risk-free rate. This indicates adaptation to the market efficiency hypothesis.

Master of Science / Department of Agricultural Economics / Glynn Tonsor / This decade has seen movements in commodity futures markets never seen before. There are many factors that have intensified price movements and volatility behavior. Those factors likely altering supply and demand include governmental policy within and outside of the U.S, weather shocks, geopolitical conflicts, food safety concerns etc. Whatever the reasons are for price movements it is clear that the volatility behavior in commodity markets constantly change, and risk managers need to use current and efficient tools to mitigate price risk. This study identified market structural breaks of realized volatility in corn, wheat, soybeans, live cattle, feeder cattle and lean hogs futures markets. Furthermore, this study analyzes the forecasting performance of implied volatility, historical volatility, a composite approach and a naïve approach as forecasters of realized volatility. The forecasting performance of these methods was analyzed in the full period of time of our weekly data from January 1995 to April 2014 and in each identified market regime for each commodity. Previous research has analyzed forecasting performance of implied volatility, a time series alternative and a composite method. However, to the best of my knowledge, they have not worried about market structural breaks in the data that might influence the performance of the mentioned forecasting methods in different periods of time. Overall, results indicate that indeed there are multiple market structural breaks present in the volatility datasets across all six commodities. We found differences in the forecasting performance of the analyzed methods when individual market regimes were analyzed. There seems to be evidence that corroborates the idea in the literature about the superiority of implied volatility over a historical volatility, a composite approach and a naïve approach. Additionally, implied volatility encompassed all the information contained in the historical volatility and the naïve measure across each identified market regime in all six commodities. Our results show that when both implied volatility and historical volatility are available, the benefit of combining those measures into a composite forecasting approach is very limited. Our results hold true for a short term 1 week ahead realized volatility forecast. It would be of interest to see how results vary for longer forecasting time horizons.

This thesis will investigate if adding an exogenous variable (implied volatility) to the variance equation will increase the performance for the GARCH(1,1) and EGARCH(1,1) models based on the OMXS30 index. These models are also compared with the implied volatility itself as a forecasting/modeling method. To evaluate the models the realized variance will be used as an unbiased estimator of the conditional variance. The findings suggest that adding implied volatility to the variance equation increase the overall performance.

Collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) represent one of the fastest-growing credit derivatives of the structured finance world. In January 2007, the law has been promoted so that CDOs can be issued in Taiwan, including CLOs and CBOs. Thus, we can expect that these two kinds of CDOs will be main products in short future. There are many approaches to valuing CDOs, such as structural models, reduced-form models and credit barrier models. Copula models, which are sometimes classified as reduced-form models, represent the market standard for pricing CDOs. In this paper, we discuss the “implied copula model”, one approach implied from copulas. This is first written by John Hull and Alan White in October, 2006. Here, we discuss how the assumptions in the implied copula model can be released or changed. In our study, we use the CDX IG data on June 8, 2007, for calibration. Besides valuing CDOs with implied copula, we use the adjusted implied copula approach to hedge. Since credit default swap (CDS) has become one of the basic credit products and CDOs are based from some set of CDSs, the CDO tranches and the CDSs must be arbitrage-free. By taking this idea into our model, our study shows that this approach can be used to hedge CDOs with CDSs. Moreover, we use implied copula to eliminate the arbitrage opportunity in Gaussian copula/base correlation approach. As valuing, we also use the CDX IG data on June 8, 2007, for calibration in our hedging model. Consequently, our results suggest that there is a hedging approach with better hedging effect, which is constructed according to Greeks of CDO tranches or according to classification by industries and credit ratings of the CDS names for CDOs.

本文以Hull and White(2004)與Anderson and Sidenius(2004)之理論模型為基礎，在單因子連繫結構模型(one-factor copula model)下，探討風險因子改變其分配之假設或考慮隨機風險因子承載係數(random factor loading)時，對擔保債權憑證之損失分配乃至於各分券信用價差所造成之影響。此外，文中亦將模型運用於實際市場資料上，對兩組Dow Jones iTraxx EUR 五年期之指數型擔保債權憑證(index tranches)與一組Dow Jones CDX NA IG指數型擔保債權憑證進行評價與分析。我們發現在三組資料下，使用double t-distribution 連繫結構模型(double t-distribution copula model)與隨機風險因子承載係數模型(random factor loading model)皆能比使用高斯連繫結構模型(Gaussian copula model)更接近市場上之報價。最後，在評價指數型擔保債權憑證外，本研究亦計算各分券之隱含違約相關係數(implied correlation)與基準違約相關係數(base correlation)。