La zone économique exclusive Mauritanienne est le siège d’upwelling et constitue une zone de transition où cohabitent des espèces d’affinités tempérée et tropicale. Pour comprendre le comportement spatio-temporel des assemblages démersaux du point de vue de leur composition, structuration, distribution de probabilité et diversité face aux préoccupations écologiques. Les facteurs abiotiques contribuent à la structuration des assemblages démersaux persistants au cours du temps. Les effets de la pêche étaient relativement faibles. Les trajectoires temporelles entre les assemblages et les conditions environnementales ont été mises en évidence pour certaines années et des zones. Dans les types d’habitats, un groupe minoritaire d’espèces très agrégatives obéissant au modèle de distribution en log-séries de Fisher et un autre majoritaire peu ou pas du tout agrégatives obéissant au modèle de distribution binomiale négative tronquée ont été identifiés. La diversité spécifique peut être divisé en deux groupes distincts et complémentaires : la richesse spécifique et l'autre associé à l’équitabilité. Un seul composant de la diversité ne peut donc pas représenter la diversité des poissons démersaux de la zone étudiée. Les GLM des indices complémentaires ont montré essentiellement un effet temporel et l’interaction Année-Strates bathymétriques. Aucun effet de l’effort de pêche n’a été observé sur la richesse spécifique, ni de la concentration en chlorophylle sur l’équitabilité. Ce travail pourrait fournir aux gestionnaires et aux scientifiques des connaissances complémentaires sur la dynamique spatio-temporelle des assemblages démersaux exploités dans des écosystèmes d’upwelling. / The Mauritanian exclusive economic zone is the seat of an upwelling phenomenon and constitutes a transition zone where species of temperate and tropical affinities coexist. To understand the spatio-temporal behavior of demersal assemblages from the point of view of their composition, structure, distribution of probability and diversity faced to ecological concerns. Abiotic factors contribute in the structuring of persistent groundfish assemblages over time. The fishing effects were relatively low, although significant in some years and in some specific geographic areas. Temporal trajectories between groundfish assemblages and environmental conditions have been highlighted for some years and in some specific areas. In each type habitats, two species groups were identified: a minority group of species very aggregative well fitted by Fisher’s log-series distribution and another majority of species little or not aggregative well fitted by the truncated negative binomial distribution. Diversity indices analyzed reveal that this set can be split into two distinct and complementary groups: a group associated with the species richness and another group associated with evenness. One component of diversity may not represent the diversity of the groundfish in the study area. GLMs of complementary indices showed essentially a temporal effect and Bathymetric strata-Year interaction. No effect of fishing effort was observed on the species richness and neither was the concentration of chlorophyll a on the evenness. This work could provide managers and scientists to further knowledge on the spatio-temporal dynamics of groundfish species assemblages exploited in upwelling ecosystems.

Este trabalho foi realizado com o objetivo de avaliar o efeito de frações (em hexano, diclorometano, acetato de etila e hidroalcoólica) de extratos etanólicos de Trichilia pallida Swartz, Trichilia pallens C.DC. e Toona ciliata M. Roemer sobre Spodoptera frugiperda (J. E. Smith), e isolar, identificar e avaliar o efeito dos compostos dessas três meliáceas sobre o desenvolvimento e o metabolismo do inseto, com ênfase para o limonoide cedrelona. As frações causaram baixa mortalidade, mas houve grande redução de peso das lagartas com as frações em diclorometano de folhas e de ramos de T. pallida, de ramos de T. pallens e de folhas e de frutos de T. ciliata, além de maior duração da fase larval, redução do peso de pupas e alteração dos índices nutricionais, sendo a fração de ramos de T. pallida a de maior efeito tóxico e com fagodeterrência secundária, e a fração de folhas de T. ciliata sem efeito tóxico, mas apresentando fagodeterrência possivelmente primária. A partir da fração em diclorometano de frutos de T. ciliata obteve-se um triglicerídeo; da fração em acetato de etila de ramos de T. ciliata obteve-se o flavonoide (+/-)-catequina; da fração em hexano de folhas de T. pallida obteve-se o triterpeno damaradienol e da fração em diclorometano de ramos de T. pallens obteve-se a cumarina escopoletina. O triglicerídeo e a escopoletina causaram pequena mortalidade e redução de peso das lagartas por ingestão, enquanto a catequina causou apenas redução de peso. Por contato, a escopoletina também afetou a sobrevivência. O limonoide cedrelona, isolado do extrato bruto em hexano de caules de T. ciliata, apresentou o maior efeito, tanto por ingestão quanto por contato. Por ingestão, os valores estimados de CL50, CL90 e CE50 para a cedrelona aplicada sobre a dieta foram 365,33, 659,62 e 95,02 ppm, respectivamente, e após incorporação na dieta, os valores foram 119,05, 491,14 e 45,13 ppm, respectivamente. A cedrelona causou fagodeterrência em teste com chance de escolha e redução no consumo foliar no teste sem chance de escolha. A ingestão de cedrelona causou menor peso de lagartas e de pupas, aumento da duração da fase larval e da mortalidade de modo dose dependente, com efeitos subletais observados a partir de 24 ppm. Lagartas de quarto ínstar que ingeriram dieta contendo cedrelona a 300 ppm tiveram redução na eficiência de conversão do alimento ingerido (ECI) e digerido (ECD) e na taxa de crescimento relativo (RGR), enquanto o custo metabólico (MC), a taxa metabólica relativa (RMR) e a digestibilidade aproximada (AD) aumentaram, e a taxa de consumo relativo (RCR) não foi alterada, indicando efeitos tóxicos pós-ingestão e efeito fagodeterrente secundário, com a maior parte do alimento assimilado sendo utilizada no metabolismo. A atividade de proteases no mesêntero das lagartas que ingeriram dieta contendo cedrelona foi reduzida, assim como a quantidade de grupos heme, relacionados às monoxigenases do citocromo P450, enquanto a atividade de glutationa-S-transferases não foi alterada. A atividade de acetilcolinesterase no extrato enzimático de lagartas inteiras aumentou. A bioatividade da cedrelona e os possíveis modos de ação são discutidos. / This work was carried out to evaluate the effect of fractions (in hexane, dichloromethane, ethyl acetate and hydroalcoholic) of ethanolic extracts of Trichilia pallida Swartz, Trichilia pallens C.DC. and Toona ciliata M. Roemer to Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith ), and to isolate, identify and evaluate the effect of the compounds from the three Meliaceae on the larvae development and metabolism, with emphasis on the cedrelone limonoid. The fractions caused low mortality, but there was a great reduction in weight of larvae with dichloromethane leaves and stems fractions of T. pallida, stems of T. pallens and leaves and fruits of T. ciliata, in addition to longer duration of the larval stage, pupae weight reduction and changes on nutritional indices. The fraction of T. pallida stems caused the highest toxic effects and secondary phagodeterence, and the fraction of T. ciliata leaves showed probably primary phagodeterrence, but no toxic effect. From the dichloromethane fraction of T. ciliata fruits was obtained a triglyceride (unidentified), from the ethyl acetate fraction of T. ciliata stems was obtained the flavonoid (+/-)-catechin, from the hexane fraction of T. pallida leaves was obtained the triterpene dammaradienol and from the dichloromethane fraction of T. pallens stems was obtained the coumarin scopoletin. Scopoletin and triglyceride caused low mortality and larval weight reduction after ingestion, catechin caused only larval weight reduction. Scopoletin either affect survival by contact. The limonoid cedrelone, isolated from the crude hexane extract of stems of T. ciliata, was the most effective compound, either by ingestion or by contact. After ingestion, the estimated LC50, LC90 and EC50 values for cedrelone applied onto the diet were 365.33, 659.62 and 95,02 ppm, respectively, and after diet incorporation, the values were119.05, 491.14 and 45.13 ppm, respectively. Cedrelone caused feeding deterrence on choice test and reduced leaf consumption in the no-choice test. Cedrelone intake caused low weight gain by larvae and pupae, increased mortality and duration of larval stage in a dose-dependent manner, with sublethal effects observed at 24 ppm. Fourth instar larvae that ingested diet containing 300 ppm cedrelone showed reduced efficiency conversion of ingested (ECI) and digested food (ECD), reduced relative growth rate (RGR), increased metabolic cost (MC), relative metabolic rate (RMR) and approximatte digestibility (AD), but no change in relative consumption rate (RCR), suggesting toxic effects post ingestion and secondary phagodeterrence, in which most of the assimilated food was used in metabolism. The protease activity in the midgut of the larvae that ingested diet containing 300 ppm of cedrelone was reduced, as well the amount of heme groups related to cytochrome P450 monoxygenases in the midgut, but there was no change in the glutathione S-transferases activity. , There was an increase of acetylcholinesterase activity in the larvae bodies. Cedrelone bioactivity and the possible modes of action are discussed.

Um grande número de pacientes adultos têm procurado tratamento ortodôntico, apresentando com certa frequência, diferentes tipos de perdas dentárias, associadas ou não a distúrbios temporomandibulares (DTMs). Objetivou-se neste estudo avaliar a repetibilidade dos deslocamentos das cabeças mandibulares entre relação cêntrica (RC) e máxima intercuspidação habitual (MIH); comparar os deslocamentos das cabeças mandibulares em três grupos, com diferentes padrões oclusais; avaliar a aplicabilidade de dois índices de distúrbios temporomandibulares (Helkimo e RDC-TMD) comparando-os nos referidos grupos. Esses foram constituídos por 15 indivíduos sem perdas dentárias (grupo controle); 11 com perdas resultando em extremo livre (grupo 2), e 19 com perda intercalada (grupo 3). As idades dos participantes variaram entre 18 e 65 anos, de ambos os gêneros, divididos ainda quanto à faixa etária: de 18 até 37 anos e 11 meses e de 38 até 65 anos, sem distinção de gênero. Foram realizados anamnese e exame físico, aplicando-se os índices de distúrbios temporomandibulares, assim como foram medidos os deslocamentos das cabeças mandibulares por meio de Indicadores de posição das cabeças mandibulares (IPC). Observou-se repetibilidade da avaliação dos deslocamentos das cabeças mandibulares, caracterizando a validade do método empregado. Com relação aos deslocamentos, não foi encontrada diferença significativa entre os três grupos. Encontrou-se diferença significativa entre os índices de Helkimo e RDC-TMD, porém esta foi independente ao grupo estudado. Não houve diferença entre a faixa etária do grupo estudado. Confirma-se então, neste estudo, que o tipo de perda dentária não influencia a quantidade dos deslocamentos das cabeças mandibulares, e os índices de distúrbios temporomandibulares diferem quanto aos resultados de sua avaliação. / A large number of adult patients have sought orthodontic treatment, and with a certain frequency, have presented different types of tooth loss, either associated with temporomandibular disorders (TMDs) or not. In this study, the aim was to evaluate the repeatability of displacement of mandibular heads between centric relation (CR) and habitual maximum intercuspidation (HMI); compare displacements of mandibular heads in three groups with different occlusal patterns; evaluate the applicability of two temporomandibular disorder indices (Helkimo and RDC-TMD), and compare them in the mentioned groups. These consisted of 15 individuals without tooth losses (Control Group); 11 with losses resulting in distal extension (Group 2) and 19 with interspersed loss (Group 3). Participants\' ages ranged between 18 and 65 years, of both genders, further divided according to age-range: from 18 to 37 years and 11 months and from 38 to 65 years without gender distinction. Anamnesis and physical exam were performed, applying temporomandibular disorder indices, in addition to measuring the displacements of mandibular heads by means of condylar position indicators (CPI). Repeatability of mandibular head displacement was observed, characterizing the validity of the method used. As regards displacements, no significant difference was found among the three groups. Significant difference was found between the Helkimo and RDC-TMD indices; however, this was irrespective of the studied group. There was no difference between the age-range of the studied groups. In this study, therefore, it was confirmed that the type of tooth loss does not influence the number of mandibular head displacements and the temporomandibular disorder indices differed with regard to the results of their evaluation.

Os anos 90 marcaram a expansão dos programas sociais em países em desenvolvimento, sendo que muitos desses programas consistem em aliviar a pobreza extrema e promover melhoras à vida dos indivíduos vulneráveis a tal condição. Com isso, tornou-se importante avaliar os efeitos de programas sociais a fim de verificar se o dinheiro designado pelos governos tinha o impacto esperado sobre seus beneficiados. Levando em consideração a importância dessa avaliação, diversos pesquisadores iniciaram estudos tendo como foco o principal programa federal brasileiro: o Bolsa Família. O presente estudo busca contribuir analisando os efeitos do Bolsa Família sobre o consumo de nutrientes e os índices antropométricos, utilizando dados da Pesquisa de Orçamentos Familiares (POF) de 2008-2009. Para o consumo de nutrientes, lançou-se mão de uma subamostra constituída por 25% da amostra original da POF, com pessoas com 10 anos ou mais de idade, às quais foi solicitado que registrassem todo o alimento consumido durante 24 horas em dois dias não consecutivos. A partir disso, a quantidade de alimentos da caderneta pessoal foi transformada em quantidades de nutrientes, as quais foram utilizadas nesse estudo para analisar os efeitos do PBF sobre o consumo de nutrientes. Os índices antropométricos, baseados na amostra original, foram obtidos usando a altura e peso dos indivíduos para calcular os escores Z de altura-para-idade, peso-para-idade e IMC-para-idade. Para atingir o objetivo proposto, os dados foram separados em dois grupos: os beneficiados e os não beneficiados pelo PBF. Inicialmente analisou-se a probabilidade de um indivíduo receber ou não o benefício, para encontrar pessoas beneficiadas com características muito próximas às das não beneficiadas. Essa comparação baseada em escores de propensão d´a o nome ao método utilizado nesse estudo: Propensity Score Matching. Os resultados obtidos sugerem que o Bolsa Família contribuiu para que as pessoas tivessem acesso a alimentos saudáveis. Encontrou-se aumento no consumo de fibras, carboidratos e algumas vitaminas e minerais. Houve também uma redução no consumo de colesterol e de sódio. Ademais, ressalta-se o consumo maior de ácidos graxos essenciais para a saúde. Aliado à prática de boa alimentação, constatou-se que o PBF colaborou para que crianças e adolescentes obtivessem índices antropométricos considerados adequados em comparação com seus pares não beneficiados. / The 1990s marked the expansion of social programs in developing countries, many of which were designed to alleviate extreme poverty and promote better living conditions for extremely poor individuals. Thus, it became important to evaluate the effects of social programs to check whether the funds allocated to them by governments had the expected impact on their beneficiaries. Considering the importance of this evaluation, several researchers began to conduct studies focused on the main Brazilian federal program: the Bolsa Família Program (Family Stipendium). This study is intended to contribute to this effort by analyzing the effects of the Bolsa Família Program on nutrient intake and anthropometric indices based on data from Brazil\'s 2008-2009 Consumer Expenditure Survey (Pesquisa de Orçamentos Familiares - POF). For nutrient intake, a subsample comprising 25% of the original POF sample was used with people aged 10 or older, who were asked to report all the food they had consumed in 24 hours over two nonconsecutive days. Based on this information, the reported amount of food was converted into nutrients, which were used in this study to analyze the effects of the Bolsa Família Program on nutrient intake. Based on the original sample, anthropometric indices were calculated according to the height and weight of the individuals in the form of Z-scores for height-for-age, weight-for-age, and BMI-for-age. For the proposed objective to be achieved, the data were separated into two groups, namely, beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries of the Bolsa Família Program, and the probability of an individual receiving or not receiving the benefit was thus estimated. It was therefore possible to identify beneficiaries with very similar features to those on non-beneficiaries, and this comparison based on propensity scores gave name to the method used in this study: Propensity Score Matching. The results suggest that the Bolsa Família Program contributed to people having access to healthy food. An increase in the consumption of fibers, carbohydrates, and some vitamins and minerals was observed. A greater consumption of essential fatty acids was also observed. In addition, the fact that a decrease in the consumption of cholesterol and sodium was identified deserves special mention. Combined with good nutrition practices, it was seen that the Bolsa Família Program contributed for children and adolescents to have indices that are considered appropriate as compared to those of their non-beneficiary peers.

La mobilisation et la gestion de l’eau de surface constitue la clé de voûte du bien-être social et économique des populations des zones arides d’Afrique de l’Ouest. Cependant l’utilisation des outils de gestion et de prédétermination hydrologique est entravée par les changements climatiques et environnementaux que connait l’Afrique de l’Ouest depuis les années 1970. Les impacts de ces changements sont assez bien documentés sur les caractéristiques moyennes des régimes hydrologiques mais le sont moins lorsqu’on s’intéresse aux caractéristiques des extrêmes. Cette thèse s’inscrit dans le cadre d’une contribution à un projet d’actualisation des normes hydrologiques en Afrique de l’Ouest, et constitue le premier pas essentiel pour ce projet. Son objectif général est de caractériser les régimes de crues dans la région en répondant aux questions suivantes : Quelles sont les évolutions observées sur les régimes des crues en Afrique de l’Ouest ? Ces évolutions sont-elles en rapport avec les changements climatiques et/ou les modifications environnementales ? Quels sont les scénarii possibles de l’évolution des crues au regard des simulations climatiques futures ? La difficulté majeure de ce travail est liée à la disponibilité des données hydro climatiques et environnementales dans la région, aussi, l’analyse s’est basée sur des outils reconnus robustes dans la littérature. Dans un premier temps, l’utilisation des données de 14 stations hydrométriques de la région... / Water resources plays a key role in the social progress and economic development of west african countries. But the mobilization of water is hampered by climate and environmental changes that undergoes the region since 1970. Extremes parts of hydrological regimes are also impacted, but less studies have focus on their evolution, in relation with climate and environmental changes. The main objective of this thesis is to characterize hydrological extreme events in West Africa, we tried to answer the following questions:- What are the trends of maximum discharge in west Africa?- Are these trends due to climate changes or enviromental changes?- Which speculations can be made from these evolutions, according to future climate simulations?In the first part of the work, we analyzed the trends of floods over 14 watersheds of the region. This analysis allowed us to highlight a clustering behavior of flood according to the climatic region the catchments belong to. Increasing trends have been found on flood magnitude and flood frequency of the 3 sahelian catchments used, and decreasing trends of flood magnitude were found on three sudanian catchments. Finally, the remaining catchments did not showed significant trend in their flood regime...

Made available in DSpace on 2014-07-29T16:24:20Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao Roberta de Freitas.pdf: 4201818 bytes, checksum: 579a958eeb338558fbaeb619d7c9df7e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009-02-18 / The Diagnosis and Recommendation Integrated System (DRIS) is an efficient tool for nutritional diagnosis on several crops. However, it no longer has been used on cotton crop, mainly in Goiás State. This work aimed to gain DRIS norms and diagnose the most limiting nutritional factors to obtain high cotton yields, using soil and leaf analysis, interpreted through critical levels or concentration ranges and DRIS techniques. Sampling sites were chosen on commercial area according to local topographic features and soil classes, trying to maintain their inside uniformity. Soil and leaf samples were taken at the full flowering stage (90 day after seeding). Ten leafs from each point were sampled, withdrawing the fifth leaf from the apex of the main stem, and for soil analysis six single samples from 0 to 20 cm at each point. Yields were assess after physiological maturation, taking two seeding rows five meters long for harvesting cotton fiber. Soil and leaf data were interpreted through DRIS and concentration ranges techniques. Norms were established from populations with yields greater than 4 Mg ha-1 of nutmeat cotton for calculating the DRIS indices. The diagnosis techniques assessed in this work showed distinct interpretations. The nutrients S, P, B, Zn, Fe and Mn showed to be the most limiting ones, as evaluated on by soil and analysis and diagnosed through the DRIS technique. Using the concentration range technique P, Zn and SOM in soil data, whereas in leaf data, S, Zn, K and B, are the most limiting ones. DRIS showed higher sensibility for diagnosing nutritional deficiencies, moreover, for micronutrients. / O Sistema Integrado de Diagnose e Recomendação (DRIS) tem mostrado-se eficiente como método para diagnóstico nutricional em diversas culturas. Porém o método tem sido pouco empregado na cultura do algodoeiro, principalmente no Estado de Goiás. O objetivo deste trabalho foi obter normas DRIS e diagnosticar os fatores nutricionais mais limitantes à obtenção de altas produtividades para a cultura do algodão, através de análises foliares e de terra, interpretadas pelos métodos faixas de concentração ou níveis críticos e DRIS. Foram selecionados pontos de amostragem, em uma área comercial no município de Silvânia, Goiás, conforme as características locais de topografia e tipo de solo, procurando-se manter uniformidade dentro dos pontos e diferenças entre eles. As amostras de terra e folha foram coletadas na época de florescimento pleno (90 dias após o plantio). Coletou-se 10 folhas em cada ponto, retirando-se a quinta folha a partir do ápice da haste principal, e para a análise de terra coletou-se seis amostras simples na profundidade de 0 a 20 cm para cada ponto, totalizando 108 pontos de amostragem. Para avaliação da produtividade em cada ponto de amostragem, após a maturação fisiológica, foram tomadas duas linhas de cinco metros lineares de plantio, colhendo-se as plumas. As análises de terra e folhas foram interpretadas pelos métodos das faixas de concentração ou níveis críticos e o DRIS. Foram estabelecidas normas a partir de uma população com produtividade maior que 4.000 kg ha-1 de algodão em caroço para cálculo dos índices DRIS. Os métodos de diagnose avaliados neste trabalho apresentaram interpretações distintas. Os nutrientes S, P, B, Zn, Fe e Mn foram os mais limitantes nas análises de terra e de folha, diagnosticados pelo método DRIS. Pelas faixas de concentração ou níveis críticos P, Zn e matéria orgânica foram os mais limitantes nas análises de terra, enquanto nas análises foliares foram os nutrientes S, Zn, K e B. O método DRIS apresentou maior sensibilidade para diagnosticar problemas nutricionais, especialmente, para micronutrientes.

As proporções na face e no corpo humano são analisadas desde a antiguidade, a exemplo do Homem Vitruviano de Leonardo da Vince. A existência das proporções Divinas ou proporções áureas em crânios esqueletizados é um campo de estudo que apresenta um potencial colaborador para as áreas de sobreposição de imagens, reconstrução facial e identificação forense. O objetivo deste trabalho é estabelecer parâmetros antropométricos regionais baseados nas proporções áureas, instituindo coeficientes e índices faciais específicos para a amostra composta por sessenta crânios esqueletizados (n=60), oriundos do Instituto Médico Legal da Bahia. As mensurações foram realizadas diretamente sobre o crânio utilizando paquímetros digitais. Foram selecionadas 14 medidas craniométricas diferentes e a partir delas foram calculados 06 relações horizontais, 04 verticais e 06 índices faciais. Os dados foram tabulados e descritos por valores de média e desvio padrão, utilizou-se o intervalo de confiança da média (p<0,05). A proporção áurea (1,618) não foi encontrada na população examinada, entretanto foi possível estabelecer índices faciais e coeficientes próprios para as medidas, construindo parâmetros antropométricos regionais baseados nas proporções estudadas. A proporção altura da cabeça em relação a altura da face (V-GN/N-GN) igual a 1,69 foi a variável que mais se aproximou do número de ouro e a relação entre a altura nasal ser igual a metade da altura da face (N-SN=N-GN/2) como valor de 0,92 foi a variável que mais se aproximou entre as igualdades. Admiti-se que a partir de uma medida é possível alcançar a outra utilizando os índices faciais e as retas de regressão calculadas. Este estudo fornece indicadores úteis, pois busca estabelecer proporções nos crânios que são reproduzíveis na face, contribuindo para o aperfeiçoamento das técnicas auxiliares de Reconstrução Facial e Sobreposição de Imagens em estudos futuros. / The proportions of the human face and body have been studied since, at least, Leonardo da Vinci and his Vitruvian Man. The existence of divine or Golden Ratios in human skulls may collaborate with Image Superposition, Facial Reconstruction and Forensics Identification. The goal of this study is establishing regional anthropometrics parameters based on golden ratios, using specifics facial coefficients and indexes for sixty skulls (n=60), obtained from Institute of Legal Medicine of Bahia, BRA. The measurements were done directly over the skull using a digital pachymeter. Fourteen different measurements were selected and, from them, 06 horizontals and 04 verticals relations and 06 facial indexes were calculated. The data was charted and described by average and standard deviation. An average confidence interval was used (p<0,05).The golden ratio (1,618) has not been found among the population analyzed, however was possible establishing facial indexes and coefficients for the measurements, building regional anthropometric parameters based on the studied proportions. The proportion height of the head related to the height of the face (V-GN/N-GN) equal to 1,69 was the closest variable to the golden number and the relation between nasal height being equal to half a height of the face (N-SN=N-GN/2) as 0,92 was the closest variable between equalities. Admitting that from one measurement to another can be achieved using the facial indexes facial and linear regression calculated. This study provides useful indicators since tries to establish proportions on the skull that can be reproducible on the face, contributing for the improvement of auxiliary techniques of Facial Reconstruction and Images Superposition in future studies.

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Thesis (M. Sc. (Statistics)) --University of Limpopo, 2014 / analysis of price indices of electrical appliances in South Africa is performed using monthly data from Statistics South Africa for the period January 1998 to December 2010, with 2005 as a base year. Time series analysis (exponential smoothing and ARIMA) and neural networks are employed in developing forecasting models. The results for single, double and triple exponential smoothing are compared and triple exponential smoothing is found to be the best model amongst the three to forecast the electrical price indices in South Africa. ARCH models were also employed for the variable that failed to pass the requirements from ARIMA. Comparing neural networks, ARIMA and triple exponential smoothing results, neural networks is found to be the best model for forecasting price indices of electrical appliances. Regression analysis was then applied to the lighting equipment variable to check for a monthly effect after its plot depicted some seasonality pattern. Only the month of February did not have an impact or an effect on time since it was found not to be significantly different from zero. Multivariate time series is also applied in checking the correlation between the variables. Keywords: Time series analysis, ARIMA, ARCH, multiple linear regression, exponential smoothing, neural networks, electrical price indices.

Weighted voting games are classic cooperative games which provide compact representation for coalition formation models in human societies and multiagent systems. As useful as weighted voting games are in modeling cooperation among players, they are, however, not immune from the vulnerability of manipulations (i.e., dishonest behaviors) by strategic players that may be present in the games. With the possibility of manipulations, it becomes difficult to establish or maintain trust, and, more importantly, it becomes difficult to assure fairness in such games. For these reasons, we conduct careful experimental investigations and analyses of the effects of manipulations in weighted voting games, including those of manipulation by splitting, merging, and annexation . These manipulations involve an agent or some agents misrepresenting their identities in anticipation of gaining more power or obtaining a higher portion of a coalition's profits at the expense of other agents in a game. We consider investigation of some criteria for the evaluation of game's robustness to manipulation. These criteria have been defined on the basis of theoretical and experimental analysis. For manipulation by splitting, we provide empirical evidence to show that the three prominent indices for measuring agents' power, Shapley-Shubik, Banzhaf, and Deegan-Packel, are all susceptible to manipulation when an agent splits into several false identities. We extend a previous result on manipulation by splitting in exact unanimity weighted voting games to the Deegan-Packel index, and present new results for excess unanimity weighted voting games. We partially resolve an important open problem concerning the bounds on the extent of power that a manipulator may gain when it splits into several false identities in non-unanimity weighted voting games. Specifically, we provide the first three non-trivial bounds for this problem using the Shapley-Shubik and Banzhaf indices. One of the bounds is also shown to be asymptotically tight. Furthermore, experiments on non-unanimity weighted voting games show that the three indices are highly susceptible to manipulation via annexation while they are less susceptible to manipulation via merging. Given that the problems of calculating the Shapley-Shubik and Banzhaf indices for weighted voting games are NP-complete, we show that, when the manipulators' coalitions sizes are restricted to a small constant, manipulators need to do only a polynomial amount of work to find a much improved power gain for both merging and annexation, and then present two enumeration-based pseudo-polynomial algorithms that manipulators can use. Finally, we argue and provide empirical evidence to show that despite finding the optimal beneficial merge is an NP-hard problem for both the Shapley-Shubik and Banzhaf indices, finding beneficial merge is relatively easy in practice. Also, while it appears that we may be powerless to stop manipulation by merging for a given game, we suggest a measure, termed quota ratio, that the game designer may be able to control. Thus, we deduce that a high quota ratio decreases the number of beneficial merges.