Les régions nordiques à pergélisol seront largement affectées par l'augmentation prévue des températures. Un nombre croissant d’infrastructures qui étaient autrefois construites avec confiance sur des sols gelés en permanence commencent déjà à montrer des signes de détérioration. Les processus engendrés par la dégradation du pergélisol peuvent causer des dommages importants aux infrastructures et entrainer des coûts élevés de réparation. En conséquence, le contexte climatique actuel commande que la planification des projets dans les régions nordiques s’effectue en tenant compte des impacts potentiels de la dégradation du pergélisol. Ce mémoire porte sur l’utilisation de systèmes d’information géographique (SIG) appliqués à l’évaluation du potentiel d’aménagement des territoires situés en milieu de pergélisol. En utilisant une approche SIG, l’objectif est d’élaborer une méthodologie permettant de produire des cartes d'évaluation des risques afin d’aider les collectivités nordiques à mieux planifier leur environnement bâti. Une analyse multi-échelle du paysage est nécessaire et doit inclure l'étude des dépôts de surface, la topographie, ainsi que les conditions du pergélisol, la végétation et les conditions de drainage. La complexité de l'ensemble des interactions qui façonnent le paysage est telle qu'il est pratiquement impossible de rendre compte de chacun d'eux ou de prévoir avec certitude la réponse du système suite à des perturbations. Ce mémoire présente aussi certaines limites liées à l’utilisation des SIG dans ce contexte spécifique et explore une méthode innovatrice permettant de quantifier l'incertitude dans les cartes d'évaluation des risques. / Northern regions underlain by permafrost will largely be affected by the projected increase in air temperature. A growing number of structures that were once built with great confidence on perennially frozen soils are already starting to show signs of deterioration. Processes caused by permafrost degradation can cause significant damages to infrastructure and require high costs of repair. The current climatic context therefore commands that the implementation of projects in permafrost regions follows a well-thought planning in order to account for the potential impacts of permafrost degradation. This thesis focuses on the use of geographic information systems (GIS) applied to the identification of the development potential of communities located in permafrost regions. Using a GIS approach, the goal is to develop a methodology to produce risk-assessment maps to help northern communities better plan their built environment. A multi-scale analysis of the landscape is necessary and should include the investigation of surficial deposits, topography, as well as permafrost, vegetation and drainage conditions. The complexity of all the interactions that shape the landscape is such that it is virtually impossible to account for all of them or to predict with certainty the response of the system following disturbances. This research also presents some of the limitations to the use of GIS in this specific context and explores an innovative method for quantifying uncertainty in risk-assessment maps.

[pt] Esta dissertação examina o problema da localização de uma rede de equipamentos públicos. O estudo aborda as etapas de modelagem do problema, concepção e correção da base de dados, utilização de funções geográficas, monitoramento dos resultados e comparação das soluções obtidas por diversos algoritmos. O objetivo do estudo é determinar a localização dos equipamentos, de forma que o somatório das distâncias percorridas por seus usuários seja mínima, ou seja, o objetivo é minimizar a inconveniência coletiva dos usuários, a qual é medida pelo produto do número de usuários vezes a menor distância ao equipamento mais próximo. O trabalho baseia-se em outros estudos propostos para localizar serviços de saúde, ensino, e atividades gerais de serviços, fundamentados no modelo da p-mediana, e resolvidos por métodos heurísticos e exatos. O estudo de caso abordou a localização dos templos católicos existentes na Barra da Tijuca e Recreio dos Bandeirantes, Rio de Janeiro, RJ. A circulação nesses bairros foi projetada, privilegiando o uso de automóvel em vias expressas, mas contrariando o conceito ambientalista de mobilidade. O estudo busca avaliar a atual localização da rede de templos, assim como avaliar a sua estabilidade, com o objetivo de minimizar a inconveniência coletiva. Além de avaliar a atual localização, o estudo estabelece o local ideal para adicionar um novo templo, bem como simular a alienação de uma unidade dentre as existentes. Para buscar as melhores alternativas foram usados métodos heurísticos tradicionais: o método Guloso e o de Maranzana, além de ser proposta uma nova metodologia heurística, e, igualmente, encontrada a solução ótima, que serviu de comparação. / [en] This Master’s thesis in Urban and Environmental Engineering, deals with the problem of locating a network of public facilities. This topic is certainly important whenever one strives for efficient and sustainable urban planning. As in any large city, the location of a public facility affects the movement of people, transportation flows, infrastructure distribution, product logistics and waste management, among other activities. Such topic grows in importance when the study is directed to urban settings facing large growth rates and which demand constant changes in the equipment network. This is the case of most large Brazilian cities that continue to undergo significant density increases resulting from real estate speculation and internal migration. Therefore, the thesis’ theme draws upon several disciplines of the Urban and Environmental Engineering Program professional master’s program and meets its objectives.

O crescente desenvolvimento de aplicações utilizadas por dispositivos móveis que fazem uso das tecnologias de posicionamento via satélite e comunicação móvel, juntamente com a popularização destes dispositivos, sejam eles celulares ou GPSs (Global Positioning System) automotivos reforçam ainda mais a necessidade de representação e o entendimento a cerca das entidades móveis retratadas nestes dispositivos e incentivam estudos que forneçam um significado maior do que a simples representação posicional destas entidades. Considera-se neste trabalho, que estas entidades móveis são veículos rastreados via satélite que fornecem sua posição espacial, determinada por um par de coordenadas geográficas (latitude e longitude), coletadas em intervalos de tempo regulares para sistemas AVL (Automatic Vehicle Location) que são responsáveis pelo monitoramento do estado destes veículos. Neste trabalho, foram desenvolvidas funções para a previsão da localização e geração de padrões dos veículos monitorados por sistemas AVL. Para tanto, as paradas efetuadas pelos veículos irão definir regiões comuns de parada ocorridas durante um intervalo de tempo passado e serão consideradas como um padrão de localização, enquanto que as trajetórias serão utilizadas para definir o padrão de movimentação. Os relacionamentos topológicos que estes padrões possuem irão definir por meio de condições espaciais/direcionais e temporais quais serão as regiões de paradas consideradas como prováveis destinos, a partir de outra região de parada, considerada como origem e, permitirão a geração de matrizes com valores de frequências relativas que consideram o número de visitas que uma região recebe a partir da outra. O que possibilita extrair valores de probabilidade condicional para cada destino provável. Portanto, a metodologia proposta e as funções desenvolvidas que foram validadas em experimentos, que utilizaram dados reais de rastreamento, fornecem uma camada inicial de inteligência aos sistemas AVL, que proporciona aos controladores destes sistemas utilizarem consultas preditivas, identificarem mais facilmente anomalias de comportamento, que possam evidenciar alguma ocorrência incomum na movimentação do veículo, além de aumentar a segurança dos veículos que possuem um dispositivo de rastreamento por meio da definição de padrões inerentes ao veículo. / The increasing development of applications used by mobile devices that make use of the technologies of satellite positioning and mobile communications, along with the popularity of these devices, whether cell phones or GPS\'s (Global Positioning System) automotive further reinforce the need for representation and understanding about the mobile entities represent in these devices and encourage studies that provide a greater meaning than the simple positional representation of these entities. It is considered in this work that these entities are tracked vehicles that provide satellite spatial position, determined by a pair of coordinates (latitude and longitude), collected at regular time intervals for systems AVL (Automatic Vehicle Location) that are responsible for monitoring the state of these vehicles. In this work, functions have been developed to predict the location and pattern generation of vehicles monitored by AVL systems. Accordingly, these stops will define common regions of the stop occurred during a period of time past and will be considered as the pattern location, while the trajectories are used to define the pattern of movement of the vehicle. The topological relationships that have these patterns define conditions through spatial/directional and temporal, which are stops regions considered as probable destinations from another stop region, regarded as origin and allow the generation of matrices with values of frequencies on considering the number of visits that region receives from the other. What makes it possible to extract values of conditional probability for each likely destination. Therefore, the proposed methodology and functions developed that been validated in experiments using real data to tracking provide a initial layer of intelligence to the AVL system that gives drivers of these systems use predictive queries, more easily identify behavioral abnormalities that may show some unusual occurrence in moving the vehicle, in addition to increasing the safety of vehicles which have a tracking device by setting patterns relating to the vehicle.

Indicadores são ferramentas capazes de simplificar informações sobre fenômenos complexos e melhorar, com isso, o processo de comunicação. Também permitem o resumo de grande quantidade de informações relacionadas a um aspecto, auxiliando no diagnóstico e prognóstico ambiental. Alguns cuidados devem ser tomados na seleção e construção dos indicadores para que as medidas utilizadas sejam adequadas, pois influenciam a tomada de decisão. Indicadores inconsistentes fornecem informações imprecisas e enganosas sobre o que está sendo medido. Um dos propósitos desta ferramenta é auxiliar na implementação de mecanismos de proteção, recuperação e uso racional de recursos hídricos. As bacias hidrográficas têm sido usadas como uma das principais unidades de planejamento e gestão integrada por permitirem a visualização da dinâmica dos vários elementos dos meios físico e agentes naturais atrelados à ação humana. Além disso, são áreas expostas a impactos ambientais provenientes da urbanização, exploração intensa de recursos, uso e ocupação inadequados e emissão de efluentes nos cursos d\'água. Por esses motivos, o presente estudo visou abordar o uso de indicadores ambientais para o diagnóstico do potencial de degradação por erosão nas bacias hidrográficas do município de São Carlos – SP como suporte à gestão dos recursos hídricos municipais, possibilitando o melhor aproveitamento destas áreas com menor impacto ambiental possível. O modelo Pressão-Estado-Resposta (PER) foi escolhido para orientar a coleta, organizar as informações e ajudar na interpretação e comunicação dos resultados por ser um dos mais utilizado para divulgar estatísticas e indicadores ambientais. A análise de Agrupamentos e a Matriz de Vulnerabilidade foram os métodos empregados para integrar os indicadores e disponibilizar as informações às partes interessadas como suporte à tomada de decisão. Utilizou-se o Sistema de Informação Geográfica (SIG) ArcGIS® como ferramenta computacional básica para ponderar e agregar os indicadores por meio dos métodos escolhidos e, posteriormente, gerar os mapas analíticos. A partir da análise de agrupamentos as bacias foram divididas em cinco grupos de acordo com a semelhança entre elas, evidenciando a diversidade de cenários relacionados à erosão no município de São Carlos. Já a matriz de vulnerabilidade categorizou as bacias em cinco classes de potencial de degradação por erosão que apontou o menor potencial nas bacias das Gabirobas e Mogi-Guaçu e o maior na bacia do Monjolinho. A diferença entre estes métodos consiste no modo de sintetizar a informação, porém, ambos convergem para auxiliar na elaboração de estratégias de gestão. / Indicators are tools that simplify information about complex phenomena and improve, therefore, the process of communication. They also allow to summary a lot of information related to one aspect, assisting in the environmental diagnosis and prognosis. Care should be taken in the selection and construction of indicators, as they influence the decisionmaking and therefore it is important that the measures used are appropriate. Inconsistent indicators provide inaccurate and misleading information about what is measured. A purpose of this tool is to assist in the implementation of water resources protection mechanisms, recovery and rational use. Watersheds are been used as major planning and integrated management units for allowing the visualization of the dynamics of the various physical elements and natural agents wattled to human action. In addition, these areas are exposed to environmental impacts from urbanization and intensive resource exploitation, inadequate use and occupation and effluents emissions into waterways. For these reasons, this study aimed to address the use of environmental indicators to diagnosis the erosion\'s degradation potencial in São Carlos\' (SP) river basins to support the local water resources management, enabling better use of these areas with less possible environmental impact. The Pressure-State-Response (PSR) model was chosen to guide the information collection and organization and help in the interpretation and communication of the results because it is one of the most used metodology to disseminate statistics and environmental indicators. The Cluster Analysis and Vulnerability Matrix were the methods employed to integrate the indicators and provide information for stakeholders to support decision making. The Geographic Information System (GIS) ArcGIS® was used as computational tool to weight and aggregate indicators through the chosen methods and subsequently generate analytical maps. From the cluster analysis the basins were divided into five groups according to the similarity between them, showing the diversity of scenarios related to erosion in São Carlos. The vulnerability matrix categorized the basins in five erosion degradation potencial classes that pointed out the basins of Gabirobas and Mogi-Guaçu as less potential and Monjolinho as higher. The difference between these two methods is the way to synthesize information, but both converge to assist in decision making and management strategies development.

Cette thèse a pour objectif de modéliser et résoudre des problèmes d’optimisation d’un système d’auto-partage avec des voitures électriques dit « à un seul sens », où les utilisateurs peuvent prendre une voiture dans une station et la laisser ensuite dans une autre. Ce fonctionnement conduit généralement à une situation de déséquilibre dans la répartition des voitures avec certaines stations pleines et d’autres vides. Une des solutions utilisées par les opérateurs d’autopartage pour pallier ce problème est le recours à des agents pour déplacer les voitures selon le besoin. Identifier et répondre à ce besoin est un problème d’optimisation non trivial, notamment à cause de l’usage de véhicules électriques, ce qui engendre des contraintes de rechargement de batteries et d’autonomie. Le problème d’optimisation est décomposé en deux sous-problèmes : le premier est le problème d’affectation des voitures aux clients, ainsi que leurs routages, que nous nommons ROCSP pour Recharging One way Car Sharing Problem ; le second problème est celui du planning des agents et leurs routages que nous nommons ESRP pour Employee Scheduling Routing Problem. 1. Résolution du ROCSP : deux modélisations en Programmation Linéaire en Nombres Entiers (PLNE) sont proposées, la première basée sur les flots et la deuxième sur les chemins, ce qui fait que les deux modèles intègrent de manière différente les contraintes de recharge électrique. Comme la résolution exacte à travers les modèles PLNE s’avère très gourmande en temps de calcul et non adaptée aux instances d’auto-partage de taille réelle, nous proposons des heuristiques qui permettent dans un temps raisonnable d’optimiser la redistribution des voitures et la gestion du service. Ces heuristiques permettent de calculer le nombre de voitures et les différentes opérations de relocalisation (redistribution des voitures) à réaliser sur une journée donnée. 2. Résolution du ESRP : un modèle PLNE est proposé pour la résolution exacte du ESRP, et, en complément, des heuristiques sont proposées pour une résolution approchée et relativement rapide. L’objectif est la détermination du nombre minimal d’agents nécessaire pour effectuer les opérations de relocalisation qui découlent du premier problème, le ROCSP. Dans une partie prospective, et une fois les ROCSP et ESRP résolus dans leur version statique, nous nous focaliserons sur une autre variante du problème avec réservation dynamique. Nous proposons également d’explorer un nouveau concept - l’auto-copartage - qui se veut une hybridation entre autopartage et covoiturage. Les algorithmes proposés ont été validés sur le réseau Auto Bleue de la ville de Nice essentiellement, qui gère une flotte de véhicules électriques, en s’appuyant sur des modèles de génération de flux pour estimer la demande, mais aussi d’autres instances que nous avons générées pour simuler d’autres villes, au sein d’un Système d’Information Géographique. / This thesis aims at modelling and solving optimization problems related to the management of one-way-electric-car-sharing systems, where users can take a car from a station, use it, and then return it to another station. This generally leads to an imbalanced distribution of cars, with some full stations and other empty ones. A solution to this problem, implemented by car-sharing operators, is to employ staff agents to move cars as needed. However, identifying this need is a non-trivial optimization problem, especially since the system may be more constrained when the vehicles used are electric, which generates battery recharging and autonomy constraints. The global optimization problem addressed is then divided into two sub-problems. The first one is assigning the cars to customers, as well as their routing; it is denoted by ROCSP (Recharging OneWay Car Sharing Problem). The second problem involves agents planning and routing; it is denoted by ESRP (Employee Scheduling Routing Problem). 1. For the ROCSP, we propose two Mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) modelizations of the problem: One based on flows and the other based on paths. This means that the two models include the battery-recharging constraints in two different ways. As the exact resolution through the MILP models is quite expensive in terms of computational time and is not adapted for the resolution of real-size car-sharing instances, we introduce heuristics that enable the optimization of cars-redistribution and service management of the service within a reasonable amount of time. These heuristics allows the calculation of the number of cars and the various redistribution operations to be performed on a given day. 2. For the ESRP, this second problem is also addressed with MILP models for the exact resolution, and some heuristics are suggested for an approximate resolution. This process has reasonable calculation time and aims at finding the minimum number of agents to perform the necessary relocation operations that stem from the first problem, namely, the ROCSP. Once the ROCSP and ESRP solved in their static versions, we then focus on the ROCSP by exploring another variant of the problem : ROCSP with dynamic reservation. We also suggest to explore a new concept : Auto-CoPartage, which is a hybridization of car-sharing and carpooling. The stated algorithms are validated on the Auto Bleue electrical vehicles fleet in the network of the city of Nice, essentially by relying on flow generation models to estimate the demand, but also using other instances that we have generated for other cities. All the data are handled using a Geographical Information System.

A presente dissertação traz a questão da aderência de viagens de veículos em monitoramentos inteligentes com sistemas Automatic Vehicle Location (AVL) que operam em rotas rodoviárias. Uma viagem é considerada como uma série de \"passadas\", que correspondem ao tempo em que o veículo está em movimento, mas excluindo os tempos gastos em paradas para atividades como carregamento/descarregamento entre outras. A partir de dados históricos coletados via Global Positioning System (GPS) pelo sistema AVL, uma metodologia de filtragem e aplicações estatísticas para geração das passadas é apresentada. Além disso, são propostos métodos para geração de padrões de viagem de referência, baseados em tempos de viagem e velocidades, desvios padrões, locais de descontinuidades entre outros parâmetros. A geração desses padrões em conjunto com procedimentos operacionais permite o monitoramento eficiente do progresso de viagens de frotas de veículos, para finalidades logísticas e de segurança. O progresso de um veículo ao longo de uma rota é analisado diante dos padrões de viagem de referência obtidos a partir de suas viagens prévias, de veículos similares na mesma rota ou de viagens em rotas de mesma classe, dependendo do que for mais adequado. A geração de padrões é um processo dinâmico que gera conhecimento sobre o veículo e comportamento da rodovia ao longo do tempo. Desenho do processo de monitoramento do progresso de viagem é apresentado, no qual, a cada nova coleta de dado GPS ou a cada instante solicitado pelo usuário, a aderência é medida, eventuais descontinuidades (saídas da rota, paradas ou mudança de sentido) são identificadas e avisos são gerados. Tal aderência é definida por índice de desempenho que considera os desvios de tempo em relação a valores de referência e respectivas tolerâncias. Para experimentação da metodologia, foi realizada simulação de viagem na rodovia BR116 na ligação São Paulo - Rio de Janeiro, sobre base com cerca de 130.000 registros de dados GPS associados. Com integração em Geographic Information System (GIS) para suporte de funcionalidades, foram gerados os padrões de viagem e simulado o processo de monitoramento com sucesso. / This dissertation addresses the question of vehicle travel adherence in intelligent monitoring with Automatic Transportation Location (AVL) operating in a regional environment. A trip is considered as series of runs, corresponding to time in movement but excluding time spent on activities such as loading/unloading and others. Based on historic data collected from AVL/GPS a statistical data filtering method to generate the runs is presented. Furthermore, statistical methods are proposed to generate travel patterns based on travel time, speed, standard deviation and other parameters. The pattern generation together with operational procedures allows effective monitoring of large fleets in logistics and safety. The progress of a vehicle along a route is evaluated face to the statistical patterns of its previous successful trips or against statistical patterns of similar vehicles on the same route, whichever appropriate. The generation of patterns is a dynamic continuous process that generates knowledge on vehicle and road behavior along time. A broad outline of the travel monitoring process is presented. Whenever the requested by user, the process calculates the travel adherence, identifies abnormalities and generates alarms. That adherence is defined by a performance index, which considers the travel time deviations from the reference values and the respective tolerances. Successful experimentation was carried out on the Rio de Janeiro - São Paulo motorway, with 130.000 Global Positioning System (GPS) positional data relayed from trucks to a Geographic Information System (GIS) based monitoring system in Brazil.

O presente estudo desenvolve uma metodologia que agrega os produtos do sensoriamento remoto, em especial imagens provenientes de satélites de alta resolução espacial, como é o caso do satélite IKONOS, com os recursos dos sistemas de informações geográficas - SIG, para planejamento de Engenharia de Transportes. O parâmetro considerado é a acessibilidade. As cidades brasileiras, notadamente as de grande e médio porte, a partir da segunda metade do século passado até os dias atuais, vêm passando por uma expansão urbana rápida, crescente e desordenada, devido à ausência do planejamento urbano. Em virtude disso ocorrem sérios problemas sociais e econômicos. As medidas de acessibilidade podem ser utilizadas pelo administrador público para promover um adequado planejamento urbano dos municípios, principalmente o planejamento da infraestrutura viária e dos sistemas de transporte público coletivo. O objetivo é apresentar um arcabouço metodológico que se vale dos produtos de sensoriamento remoto e análises em ambiente SIG, para a extração e obtenção dos dados necessários para a determinação do índice de acessibilidade do setor empresarial do município de Osasco, localizado na Região Metropolitana de São Paulo. A partir de uma classificação baseada em objetos da imagem do município adquirida pelo sensor multiespectral do satélite IKONOS II, extraiu-se informações pertinentes quanto à localização das atividades comerciais e industriais do município, bem como sua posição em relação ao sistema viário da cidade. Os dados são convertidos e manipulados em um ambiente SIG. Após essa manipulação a medida de acessibilidade referente aos estabelecimentos comerciais e industriais de Osasco pode ser determinada. Tem-se, portanto, o índice de acessibilidade da atividade comercial e industrial do município. Índice esse, útil, por exemplo, para futuros investimentos e empreendimentos nesse setor para o município. A proposição desta metodologia se justifica, pois a detecção remota dos dados diminui o custo e o tempo despendidos em pesquisas de campo e atualizações de dados cadastrais. Desta forma, ela é uma alternativa interessante e bastante conveniente para localidades que não possuam dados em cadastro ou estes estão desatualizados. A validação desse método se verifica com o cálculo dessa mesma acessibilidade pelo método convencional, ou seja, com os dados do cadastro da Prefeitura do Município de Osasco, partindo da hipótese de que esses dados são corretos e confiáveis. Ao se comparar essas duas acessibilidades pode-se concluir sobre a aplicabilidade da metodologia proposta. Ao final, é possível verificar que a metodologia proposta pode ser aplicada, e é uma alternativa viável para localidades que não possuam dados cadastrais passíveis de serem usados para a determinação do índice de acessibilidade. / Considering the continuous urban growth, the lack of urban planning produces serious consequences whatever the subject. The accelerated and disordered urban sprawl faced by Brazilian cities since the 1950\'s has levered serious social and economic problems. In this context, the accessibility measures can be used as one of the several indicators to promote urban planning, mainly the highway network infrastructure and the public transportation system planning. This paper addresses a methodology for getting an accessibility index based on Remote Sensing and GIS technologies. Thus, objects of interest are detected from high resolution satellite images and then computed using GIS tools in order to refine the contextual classification process. Moreover, based on these objects as well as those based on the existing transportation road system, an accessibility index map is generated. Metrics of accessibility have been employed to validate the effective use of the proposed methodology for transportation planning. The accessibility measures are described and analyzed through a case of study in the city of Osasco, in the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo, Brazil. The proposed methodology consists in using the IKONOS II images to extract all the information needed to estimate accessibility. In order to do this, the first step is to do an object-based classification of the IKONOS II images. The goal of this classification is to find the commercials and industrial establishments located in the study area, and to extract the highway network of the city. These spatial data are analyzed within a GIS environment and an accessibility index is calculated using the parameters mined from the satellite images. This index is called Commercial and Industrial (C&I) accessibility, and it can be compared with C&I accessibility of other localities. The use of this methodology can be justified based on the fact that there are places with no recorded data or with outdated recorded data (highway network or C&I establishments). In this case, Remote Sensing Technologies can provide support for estimating the accessibility map index. Moreover, Remote Sensing can offer a significant reduction in cost and time for getting the database. The validation of this method is done by calculating the C&I accessibility index of the same study area through recorded data available in the Osasco municipality. These two accessibility index are compared, so it is possible to conclude about the efficiency of the proposed methodology. Therefore, the proposed methodology can be applied and it leads to satisfactory results.

<p>Floods are common natural disaster occurring in most parts of the world. This results in damage to human life and deterioration of environment. There have been immense uses of technology to mitigate measures of flood disaster i.e. structurally and non-structurally. Undoubtedly, structural measures are very expensive and time consuming which involves physical work like construction of dams, reservoirs, bridges, channel improvement, river diversion and other embankments to keep floods away from people. Whereas non-structural measures is concerned with planning like flood forecasting and warning, flood plain zoning, relief and rehabilitation for reducing the risk of flood damage to keep people away from floods. Thus, non-structural measures involve analysis, planning providing spatial information on maps with high accuracy in less time. Non-structural measures can help decision maker to plan an effective emergency response towards flood disaster. A one of the good way to plan non-structural measures is to analyze impact of flood in the flood prone areas. The thesis tries to analyze impact of flood on environment along the demarcated flood prone areas of Lake Roxen and Lake Glan in Östergötland County, Sweden. The thesis also proposes how to use current flood information during flood emergency utilizing geographical information system. This provides spatial information for area in the flood zone for assessment regarding flood vulnerability.</p><p>Using map overlay analysis in GIS software (ArcGIS); flood prone areas and topographic data along Lake Roxen and Lake Glan were digitized from PDF maps. Thus, the thesis work is an effort to analyze impact of flood when areas along Lake Roxen and Lake Glan are flooded. ESRI® GIS software Arc Map 9 and Arc View 3.3 is used for data preparation, integrating, analyzing, and spatial data with attribute table information. Finally, to show GIS can be an effective tool for development of flood emergency system as a part of disaster preparedness by the decision makers.</p>

Interannual variability of Humboldt squid (Dosidicus gigas) occurrence in the northern California Current System is largely unknown. In Oregon, the distribution of this versatile predator and what is influencing their range expansion from Mexico is poorly understood due to the recent nature of their "invasion" and a lack of monitoring. Humboldt squid are large predators that have the potential to affect ecosystem structure and fisheries because of their high-energy demands and ability to exploit a variety of oceanographic conditions and prey sources. Developing baseline distribution information is a critical first step to assess their potential ecological, social, and economic impacts, and to develop models to predict future range expansion. This study has two main objectives: (1) to document where and when Humboldt squid have been present in Oregon through cooperative fisheries research, and (2) to correlate the sightings with oceanographic conditions using a geographic information system (GIS) and species distribution modeling (SDM). I conducted 54 interviews with local fishermen and aggregated their squid sightings with available fishery-independent survey and fishery-dependent observer data from the National Marine Fisheries Service. I compiled a total of 339 Humboldt squid sightings, reported for the years 2002-2011 from the Oregon coast to 131�� west longitude. Correlation analyses were performed for Humboldt squid sightings and sea surface temperature (SST), chlorophyll a content (chla), sea surface height anomalies (SSH), dissolved oxygen at 30 m depth (30 m DO), and sea surface salinity (SSS) using a GIS, nonparametric multiplicative regression (NPMR) habitat modeling, and maximum entropy modeling (Maxent). Results indicate that oceanographic conditions have the potential to influence Humboldt squid occurrence, and in Oregon, sightings vary temporally and spatially. Combining the sightings from fishermen and scientific surveys greatly enhanced the spatial extent of the data. Humboldt squid were most frequently observed between 124.4��W and 125��W in proximity to the shelf-break at the 200 m isobath, with peak sightings (116) recorded in 2009 and the fewest (6) reported in 2003 and 2011. The highest occurrence of Humboldt squid were observed at a SST of 10.5-13.0��C, 0.26-3.0 mg m����� chla content, -4.0-1.0 m SSH anomalies, 32.2-32.8 psu SSS, and at 3-4.5 ml L����� and 6-7 ml L����� 30 m depth DO. Maps of estimated likelihood of occurrence generated by NPMR were consistent with overlayed observations from fishermen, which were not used in the model because they were limited to presence-only information. An interdisciplinary approach that incorporates cooperative fisheries research and ecosystem-based management is necessary for monitoring Humboldt squid in Oregon. Traditional methods are insufficient because Humboldt squid are data-poor, highly migratory, and are main predators of many commercially important fisheries in Oregon. Based on my findings, sightings recorded by fishermen covered a much larger area over a longer time frame than the scientific survey and observer data, and excluding their knowledge would have led to a different interpretation of Humboldt squid distribution and environmental tolerances. Although there is uncertainty in the data from potential map bias or misidentification of smaller Humboldt squid, incorporating sightings from fishermen with traditional fisheries research increases the quantity and quality of information. Cooperative monitoring for Humboldt squid could include training in species identification and sea condition reporting in logbooks. Future "invasions" are likely, and more eyes on the water will improve our understanding of the behavior and impacts of Humboldt squid on coastal resources. / Graduation date: 2013

Dt. Titel: Vorhersagemodelle für den Einfluss von Süßwasser Einstrom auf Salzwasser Schichten, Wanderbewegung und Lebenszyklen des Zooplankton im Arktischen Ozean: Szenarien und Trends in der Zukunft