In decades, the growth of the productivities in the National Income based on the developments of information economy in their countries. Besides the high-tech industries and the Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs), the information related industries contributed the growth of Nation Income. This study intended to measure the size and the structure of the information economy in Taiwan. In order to recognize the trend and the difference of the information economies among our numerous countries, we choose Porat¡¦s (1977) studyas our framework. The proposes of this study list below: 1. Measuring the size and the structure of the information economy in Taiwan. 2. Proposing to improve the methodology on measuring the information economy, especially the parts about the data resource and the identification of the information occupations in Taiwan. 3. Finding the difference on the time series between Taiwan and other countries when we developed the information economy model and making the policy suggestions on it. Key Words: Information Economy, Input-Output Table, ICT, National Income Accounts, Value-added

学位プログラム名: 京都大学大学院思修館 / 京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(総合学術) / 甲第24949号 / 総総博第31号 / 新制||総総||5(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院総合生存学館総合生存学専攻 / (主査)教授 池田 裕一, 教授 IALNAZOV Dimiter Savov, 准教授 関山 健, 安橋 正人 (奈良女子大学) / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy / Kyoto University / DFAM

Kyoto University (京都大学) / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第16380号 / 工博第3461号 / 新制||工||1523(附属図書館) / 29011 / 京都大学大学院工学研究科都市社会工学専攻 / (主査)教授 小林 潔司, 教授 岡田 憲夫, 准教授 松島 格也 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当

There is a plethora of methods and tools that can be used for the assessment of Urban Metabolism. Nevertheless, there is no standardized method for accounting of material flows within and across the boundaries of urban systems. This thesis aims to provide a physical accounting model for monitoring material flows in urban areas that could potentially become the basis for the development of a standardized accounting method in the long term. The model is based on a Physical Input Output Table framework and builds upon the strengths of existing accounting methods but at the same time it demonstrates new features that can address their limitations. The functions of the model were explored and evaluated through its application to an urban neighbourhood in the Stockholm Royal Seaport. Bottom-up data were used for the application of the model in the case study. The application of the model provided a preliminary description of the material flows in the neighbourhood and most importantly provided information that underpinned the assessment of the strengths and limitations of the model. It was deduced, that on the one hand the model can describe successfully the physical interactions between the urban socioeconomic system and the environment or other socioeconomic systems and at the same it has the potentials to illustrate the intersectoral flows within the boundaries of the system. In addition, it can be used to structure available data on material flows and promote the study of an urban system with a life cycle perspective. On the other hand, the process of compiling the tables of the model can be considered as complex and moreover the data requirements for the compilation of the tables are significant. Especially, the compilation of the tables of the model with bottom-up data may require a laborious data collection and analysis process, which however may not address all data gaps. Thus, the combination of bottom-up data with top-down data is recommended. Moreover, it is recommended the development of integrated databases for data collection and management at the municipal level and the fostering of collaboration between stakeholders within the municipalities to facilitate dissemination of data and information. / Mer än hälften av den globala befolkningen bor numera i urbana områden och denna andel uppskattas öka under de kommande årtiondena. Urbana system förbrukar fysiska resurser och genererar stora mängder av rester vilket innebär påfrestningar på miljön samt hindrar en hållbar utveckling. Således kan förståelse av Urban Metabolism (UM) stödja insatserna för att effektivisera resursförbrukningen och avfallshanteringen. I detta sammanhang har en stor mängd av metoder och verktyg utvecklats och tillämpats i UM-studier, såsom Materialflödeanalys (Material Flow Analysis - MFA) och Input-output Analys (Input Output - IOA) baserat på fysiska input-output tabeller (Input Output Tables – PIOTs). Ändå saknas en standardiserad metod för redovisning av materialflöden inom och över gränserna av urbana system. I samband med detta examensarbete utvecklades en fysisk räkenskapsmodell för övervakning av materialflöden i urbana områden. Denna modell kan potentiellt bli grunden för en enhetlig metod för beräkning av materialflöden i urbana system. Modellen utvecklades i en stegvis process och baserades på litteraturgranskning. Grunden för modellen är ett omfattande PIOT ramverk som kan användas för registrering av materialflöden i urbana system. PIOT ramverket är annorlunda än de typiska PIOT-systemen. Det ger en tydligare avgränsning av systemgränserna, det visar tydligt ursprung och destination för materialflöden, och dessutom kan det erbjuda ett livscykelperspektiv på materialflödena. Modellen består av en uppsättning identiska PIOT. Varje deltabell innehåller materialflöden som tillhör i en specifik klass, medan huvudtabellen aggregerar materialet som strömmar för alla material från deltabellerna. Därigenom kan modellen avbilda materialflödena i ett aggregat-perspektiv och samtidigt ge fysiska räkenskaper för specifika materialtyper. Modellen användes i en nybyggd stadsdel i Norra Djurgårdsstaden (NDS), för att utforska och bedöma dess funktioner. För att kartlägga och kvantifiera flödena i stadsdelen genomfördes en MFA baserad på “bottom-up-data”. Insamlingen och analysen av data var emellertid en besvärlig process och dessutom kunde flera materialflöden inte kvantifieras på grund av databrister. Därför kunde modellens tabeller inte fyllas fullständigt och ett flödesdiagram skapades med både kvantitativa och kvalitativa flöden. Trots att det fanns databrister lyckades tillämpningen av modellen att avbilda UM i det avgränsade urbana systemet på ett adekvat sätt. Det visade tydligt att nästan 96% av de materiella insatserna är ackumulerade i lager. Dessutom fastställde modellen kvalitativt den fysiska växelverkan mellan det urbana systemet och den naturliga miljön, det nationella socioekonomiska och det globala socioekonomiska systemet. Emellertid var det inte möjligt att bedöma modellens fullständiga potential eftersom det inte var möjligt att upprätta intersektorala kopplingar. Dessutom beräknades indirekta flöden av flera importerade material baserat på koefficienterna för materialintensitet. Detta tillvägagångssätt kan erbjuda insikt om de uppströms påfrestningar som orsakas av materialproduktionen. Dock finns det endast koefficienter för specifika material. Därför kan de inte användas för att uppskatta de indirekta flödena för varje materialinflöde. Dock framhöll deras partiella tillämpning att indirekta flödena var 38% högre än direktflödena, vilket indikerar att påfrestningar som utövas till miljön på grund av produktion av importerade material är betydande. Tillämpningen av modellen möjliggjorde en bedömning av både styrkor och svagheter hos modellen. Å ena sidan kan modellen fastställa fysiska interaktioner mellan det urbana socioekonomiska systemet och naturmiljön, det nationella socioekonomiska systemet och det globala socioekonomiska systemet. Dessutom har det potential att beskriva intersektorala flöden inom gränserna för det urbana systemet och det kan erbjuda insikt om materialinflödenas ursprung och materialutflödenas destination. En annan styrka i modellen är att den erbjuder livscykelperspektiv genom att ta hänsyn till indirekta flöden av importerade material. Å andra sidan demonstrerades att sammanställningenav modellens tabeller kräver en stor mängd data, speciellt när data erhålls med ett ”bottom-up” tillvägagångssätt. Ändå är bottom-up data inte alltid tillgängliga för urbana områden. En annan svaghet är att sammanställningenav tabellerna i modellen med bottom-up-data kräver en mödosam process för datainsamling och analys. Dessutom kräver analysen av data många antaganden som ökar osäkerheten i resultaten. Ovanstående svagheter i modellen kan hindra tillämpningen av modellen för räkenskap av materialflöden på urbana områden. Således rekommenderas kombinationen av bottom-up-data med top-down data för tillämpning av modellen. Dessutom föreslås utvecklingen av integrerade databaser för datainsamling om materialflöden i urbana områden.

"The Strengths and Limitations of Input-Output Analysis in Evaluating Fiscal Policy" by Bc. Lenka Liskova Abstract: The thesis addresses the recent debates on suitable macroeconomic policy and calls for an alternative evaluation and forecasting method of economic impact, by assessing the applicability of Leontief's input- output model. We concentrate on providing an insight into the entire process of input-output analysis, which yields computation of simple input-output multipliers - output, gross value added and income multi- pliers. Thanks to the ability to capture linkages in the economy, com- puted multipliers are used as a tool to evaluate the effects of vehicle scrappage schemes and ICT infrastructure investment subsidies applied within a sample of diverse developed countries - Australia, Germany, Japan, UK and USA. We also aim to provide a sufficient explanation of the input-output model and a computation manual based on the example of the Leontief open model and calculation of simple multipli- ers. In our research, we numerically evaluate the effects of fiscal stim- ulus measures in the automobile industry and ICT sector and provide their comparison among 5 countries with different industry structures. Most importantly, the thesis provides a suggestion for policy makers to consider applying input-output...

本文內容包含三個主題相近的議題，首先我們探討在貿易互動的情況下，國際能源價格衝擊所帶來的跨國衝擊效果，接著根據多個年度的資料，延用第一個議題的模型分析跨國衝掔效果的演變，以及這樣的演變與貿易趨勢之間的關係，最後則探討委外代工的貿易活動對經濟體系勞動市場的影響，企圖尋找台灣近年工資不均度逐漸下降的原因。 由第一個議題的分析結果可以發現，若要有效降低原物料價格上漲所帶來的衝擊，可從國內高耗能的產業 (如石油煉製品業) 著手，藉由技術移轉、跨國產業合作或研發投入等方式提升耗能產業的技術，改善生產結構；此外，藉由分散進口來源，可以有效降低進口拉動的物價上漲；最後，在國際能源價格上漲時，公用事業部門的價格管制，可以有效控制物價上漲，尤其對於天然資源缺乏的國家效果較為顯著，且愈多國家採行價格管制策略時，對降低物價衝擊的效果愈好。。 由第二個議題的分析可得知，各國的個別產業在三個不同的年度受到相同衝擊時，當產業的中間投入裡，能源及石油煉製品的占比愈高，則價格衝擊反應便愈大，這樣的影響效果主要反應了直接效果。若仔細檢視國內的各產業委外代工活動對價格衝擊效果的影響，則可以發現在產業別資料時，兩者間的關係並不明顯，但若將分析層級提高到整體國家的話，便可以發現委外代工比例或是國際專業分工程度愈高的國家，其受到的物價衝擊似乎稍微較低，而此一部份則是反應了跨國貿易傳遞效果。 最後，由第三個分析議題可以發現，台灣過去25年來技能與非技能勞工的工資差距逐漸拉近，這樣的趨勢與近年文獻所觀察的結果有明顯的不同，仔細檢視其中的端倪，我們可以發現台灣工資不均度雖然與相對勞動雇用仍為正相關，但工資不均度卻受到委外代工與對外直接投資負向的影響，其中，僅電子電機及機械類別的委外代工對工資不均度具有影響顯著，但民生工業及重工業類別卻不顯著，這樣的結果與近年台灣電子業發展的模式有關，雖然此產業委外生產比例日益攀升，但隨著台灣電子業在全球舉足輕重的地位，產值逐年大幅成長，雖然其中零組件愈來愈多仰賴委由開發中國家生產，但於台灣進行組裝仍需大量非技能勞工，因此委外生產將使工資不均度的情形減緩。另外，從資料中也發現，近年台灣日益減緩的工資不均度情形，主要是由於相對勞動供給的增量大於相對勞動需求所致。 / This thesis contents three approximate subjects for discussion. First of all, we confer the interaction of trades when the rise of international raw material price influences multinational; according to the data taken from many years, we employed the model of the first subject to analyze the development of inter-regional impact, its effect and also the relationship between the development and the trade tendency. Lastly, the influence of outsourcing towards the labor market in the economy will be discussed, in order to search for the reason, which is responsible for the chronicle decrease of wage inequality. The result of the first discussion shows us, to slow down the price impact which is caused by the rise of the raw material, we can undertake national companies with high energy consumption industries (e.g. petrochemical industry); on these excuses: Technique shifting, international industrial cooperation or investment of researches and so on, the technology of high energy consuming industries could be promoted to improve the production structure. Further than that, dispersing import resources could efficiently reduce the price increase caused by import. The price control at public utility could bridle price rise effectively, when international energy price is arising. This is especially obvious in countries with lack of natural resource, not forget to mention the more nations introduce price control tactic, the better it is to reduce the price impact. By the analysis of the second discussion, it is said when each country in each industry at three different years experienced the same impact, the higher the industrial’s usage of energy and petro-products for intermediate inputs, the strong is the reaction of price impact and this influence mainly responded to the direct effect. If we examine the relationship between price impact and proportion of outsourcing, we could notice that the relationship is not very conspicuous in industrial level data. But if we move the analyze level higher to the whole nation, we could discover that the higher the percentage of outsourcing is, the lower is the resulted price impact. And this is because of the transmission effect of the international trade. Last but not least, the third discussion let us know, that in the past 25 years in Taiwan, the wage inequality of high skill and low skill labor was reducing chronically. Such a trend is clearly different from the result which is shown in the recently studies. Even the wage inequality is positive proportioned with the relative labor employed, but it has been negatively influenced by outsourcing and outward direct investments. The negative relationship counts to the most outstanding in electronics and electrical machinery industries, but civil industry and heavy metal industry is not much remarkable. This result is related to the expand model of Taiwan in the recent years. Although, the percentage of outsourcing grows day by day, but with the importance of Taiwan’s electronics industry, the production arises substantially annually, even though more and more of its components is sourcing from development countries, but we still need many non-skilled personnel to fabricate those in Taiwan. That’s why outsourcing will decrease the wage inequality. Further than that, the recent wage inequality decrease in Taiwan is mainly effected by the surplus of relative labor supply.

中國大陸自「改革開放」以來，在經濟體制和結構上有著急遽的轉變，同時，海峽兩岸的經貿互動與依存程度也愈來愈高。因此，能有效分析中國大陸經濟情勢的政策模型，對於台灣與中國大陸的政策制定者與政策研究分析者而言皆十分重要。可計算一般均衡（Computable General Equilibrium，CGE）模型由於在數據需求的較大彈性及模型結構上的特性，成為中國大陸現今重要的經濟政策模型之一，本研究的目的在於考察、分析中國大陸可計算一般均衡（CGE）模型的研發背景、發展歷程、建模過程、主要政策應用方向及研究結果。 　　本研究的內容及流程如后：（1）依「歷史研究」、「調查研究」來歸納、分析中國大陸經濟學研究的發展歷程，以及中國大陸可計算一般均衡（CGE）模型的發展歷程；（2）接著依「文獻研究」來分析、分類本研究所蒐集的中國大陸可計算一般均衡（CGE）模型實證文獻（1978年－1998年）；（3）接著依「理論研究」來歸納、分析出可計算一般均衡（CGE）模型的發展、基本結構、數據基礎與建模（Modeling）；（4）以「可計算一般均衡」（CGE）方法，先依據最新的「1995年度中國投入產出表」，編制出兩張：「中國大陸1995年社會會計矩陣」、「中國大陸1995年金融社會會計矩陣」為模型數據基礎，然後應用中國大陸所研發的兩個可計算一般均衡（CGE）模型（「中國大陸經濟-環境可計算一般均衡模型」、「中國大陸金融可計算一般均衡模型」）的主要結構和方程式，以說明中國大陸可計算一般均衡（CGE）模型的建模過程和政策應用方向及模擬結果。 　　本研究的研究結果如后：（1）中國大陸經濟學研究的發展、實際經濟情況變化和政策制定需要，導致中國大陸可計算一般均衡（CGE）模型在「改革開放」後的發展可分為「啟蒙研發」和「政策應用」兩個階段；（2）將中國大陸可計算一般均衡（CGE）模型實證文獻（1978年－1998年）有系統地分類出「貿易政策問題」、「能源和環境政策問題」、「財政和稅收問題」、「經濟改革和發展策略問題」、「外來衝擊問題」、「貨幣金融問題」、「社會保險問題」等七類實證文獻；（3）應用兩個中國大陸研發的可計算一般均衡（CGE）模型，來說明建模（Modeling）與數據編制的過程，並延續、拓展相關的政策模擬研究，分析了環境政策（「綠色導向能源政策」，Green-Oriented Energy Policy：2000年－2015年）與匯率政策（「管理浮動匯率政策」，Managed Floating Exchange Rate Policy：1998年）對中國大陸經濟體的影響。 謝 詞 ii 中文提要 iv 英文提要 vi 中文目次 viii 英文目次 ix 表 次 x 圖 次 xi 1. 緒 論 1 1.1 研究動機 1 1.2 研究目的 3 1.3 研究流程與內容 4 2. 文獻探討 5 2.1 中國大陸經濟學研究的發展歷程 5 2.2 中國大陸可計算一般均衡模型的發展 11 2.3 中國大陸可計算一般均衡模型實證文獻回顧 20 3. 可計算一般均衡模型的發展、基本結構、數據基礎與建模 32 3.1 可計算一般均衡模型的概念與發展 32 3.2 可計算一般均衡模型的一般性基本結構 36 3.3 可計算一般均衡模型的數據基礎與校準 40 3.4 可計算一般均衡模型的計算機求解與建模過程 42 4. 中國大陸可計算一般模型之應用（1）─中國大陸經濟-環境可計算一般均衡模型 45 4.1 模型的基本結構 45 4.2 模型方程式 49 4.3 模型的數據基礎與校準 57 4.4 政策應用-中國大陸宏觀調控下環境政策之一般均衡分析 61 5. 中國大陸可計算一般模型之應用（II）─中國大陸金融可計算一般均衡模型 69 5.1 模型的基本結構 69 5.2 模型方程式 71 5.3 模型的數據基礎與校準 73 5.4 政策應用-中國大陸匯率政策之一般均衡分析 78 6. 結 論 83 6.1 本研究主要貢獻 83 6.2 研究限制與建議 84 6.3 後續研究建議 85 參考文獻 86 附錄1. 94 附錄2. 103 / Both the system and structure of Chinese economy have been changed rapidly since the launch of "economic reform and opening to the outside" in Mainland China, and the economic interaction and trade interdependence between Taiwan and Mainland China are intenser and closer. Effective policy analysis models for Chinese economy is very important to the policy makers and policy analysis researcher both in Taiwan and Mainland China. The Computable General Equilibrium （CGE） model has become one of the most important economic policy analysis model because of its characteristic of higher flexibility on benchmark data and structure. The purpose of this study is to review, investigate and analyze the developmental background, developmental progress, modeling procedure, policy simulations and research results. 　　The brief contents and procedure of this study consist of （1） reviewing on the development of economic research in mainland China and CGE modeling for Chinese economy, （2） reviewing on the literature of CGE models for Chinese economy used on Policy Analysis（1978－1998）, （3） reviewing on the development, basic structure, benchmark data and modeling of CGE model, （4） constructing two Chinese Social Accounting Matrix （SAM） tables developed from the most recent 1995 Chinese Input-Output table to be the benchmark data of two CGE models, the "Chinese Economic-Environmental CGE model" and the "Chinese Financial CGE model", which are developed from Chinese government and researchers, and we revise them in this study,（5） applying those two models to show and illustrate the modeling procedure and results of policy simulations of CGE models for Chinese economy. 　　In conclusion and contribution, it is composed of three parts. （1） The development of CGE model in Mainland China can be divided into two ages, "The Beginning"（1978－1991） and "The Take-off"（1992－）, which results from the development of economic research in Mainland China, the rapidly changed economic system and structure of Chinese economy, and government's urgent demands for policy-analysis tools. （2） The literature of CGE models for Chinese economy used on policy analysis from 1978 to 1998 can be classified into seven groups－ trade policy, energy and environmental policies, public finance and tax reform policies, economic reform and development strategy, external shocks, monetary and financial policies, and social insurance policy. （3） We apply those two CGE models for Chinese economy to analyze the economic and environmental impacts of environmental policy－ " Green-Oriented Energy Policy"（2000－2015） and the economic impacts of the " Managed Floating Exchange Rate Policy"（1998）.

科学研究費補助金 研究種目:一般研究(C) 課題番号:06630020 研究代表者:江崎 光男 研究期間:1994-1995年度 Discussion Paper No.41 中国経済のインフレーションと価格競争力 江崎光男･伊藤正一･王名･板倉健 1996年3月を含む