Financial analysts play a key role in collecting, processing and disseminating information for the stock market. Selecting the best analysts among thousands of analysts is an important task for investors that determines future investment profitability. Extensive research has been dedicated to finding the best analysts of the market based on various criteria for different clienteles. The state of the art approach in this process has developed into so-called Star Rankings with lists of top analysts who have previously outperformed their peers. How useful are such star rankings? Do the recommendations of stars have higher investment value than the recommendations of non-stars (i.e., recommendations of Stars “shoot” more precisely before and after selection)? Or do star rankings simply represent the past performance that will regress to the mean in the future (i.e., in reality, Shooting Stars are not stars and quickly disappear from the sky)? The aim of this Ph.D. thesis is to empirically investigate the performance of sell-side analysts’ recommendations by focusing on a group of star analysts. This thesis comprises four papers that address two overarching questions. (1) Do star rankings capture any true skill, and, thus, can investors rely on the rankings? (Papers I and II) (2) How do market conditions impact star analysts? (Papers III and IV) Paper I examines the profitability persistence of the investment recommendations from analysts who are listed in the four different star rankings of Institutional Investor magazine, StarMine’s “Top Earnings Estimators”, “Top Stock Pickers” and The Wall Street Journal and shows the predictive power of each evaluation methodology. By investigating the precision of the signals that the various methodologies use in determining who the stars are, the study distinguishes between the star-selection methodologies that capture short-term stock-picking profitability and the methodologies that emphasize the more persistent skills of star analysts. As a result, this study documents that there are star-selection methods that select analysts based on more enduring analyst skills, and, thus, the performance of these methods’ stars persists even after ranking announcements. The results indicate that the choice of analyst ranking is economically important in making investment decisions. Paper II investigates the structure of the portfolios that are built on the recommendations of sell-side analysts and confirms that the abnormal returns are explained primarily by analysts’ stock-picking ability and only partially by the effect of over-weight in small-cap stocks. The study examines the number of stocks in the portfolios and the weights that are assigned to market-cap size deciles and GICS sectors and performs an attribution analysis that identifies the sources of overall value-added performance. Paper III examines the differences in seasonal patterns in the expected returns on target prices between star and non-star analysts. Although the market returns in the sample period do not possess any of the investigated seasonal effects, the results show that both groups of analysts, stars and non-stars, exhibit seasonal patterns and issue more optimistic target prices during the summer, with non-stars being more optimistic than stars. Interestingly, the results show that analysts are highly optimistic in May, which contradicts the adage “Sell in May and go away” but is consistent with the notion of a trade-generating hypothesis: since analysts face a conflict of interests, they may issue biased recommendations and target prices to generate a trade. A detailed analysis reveals that the optimism cycle is related to the calendar of companies’ earnings announcements rather than the market-specific effects. Paper IV discusses how a shift in economic conditions affects the competitiveness of sell-side analysts. The focus is on the changes that were triggered by the financial crisis of 2007-2009 and a post-crisis “uncertainty” period from 2010-2013. The study follows Bagnoli et al. (2008) in using a change in the turnover of rankings as a measure of a transformation in analysts’ competitive advantages. Paper IV extends their research and documents how different ranking systems capture analysts’ ability to handle changes in the economic environment. The results show that market conditions impact analyst groups differently, depending on the group’s competitive advantages. / <p>QC 20170412</p> / European Doctorate in Industrial Management

Private equity investing (PE) has experienced rapid growth on a global scale over the last few decades to become a significant industry. While scholars have devoted considerable effort to studying the area of risk capital investing into businesses, research about private equity as an asset class is surprisingly scarce. This dissertation addresses this gap by enhancing understanding of PE fund investing in general, and specifically about how heterogeneity in investor-specific characteristics and entry order strategies may impact performance. Based on a comprehensive set of interviews with PE fund investors, in-dept insights about variances in motives for investing in the asset class, ways of working, and investment strategies across investors were acquired; findings that are elaborated upon in the dissertation. In addition, to facilitate a thorough investigation of the links between organizational characteristics, entry order and performance, hypotheses were tested through the statistical analysis of unique data covering PE funds raised in Sweden over a twenty-year period. Among several novel results, this study indicates that the level of environmental uncertainty has a clear impact on which organization-specific factors explain entry order, as well as which factors impact the ability of an organization to take advantage of a chosen entry order. Furthermore, the study points at organizational reputation as an especially valuable asset in situations of uncertainty. While a good reputation does not directly lead to superior performance, it may be used in exchange for favorable entry order positions. / <p>Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan i Stockholm, 2011</p>

本研究以2002年至2005年之上市公司為研究對象，衡量2002與2004年兩年之年報資訊揭露水準，探討資訊揭露水準與機構投資人持股兩者間之關係，並分析兩期資訊透明度與機構投資人持股比率的改變對經營績效與公司價值變動的影響。 實證結果發現，機構投資人持股意願受到前期年報資訊揭露水準高低的影響，顯示資訊揭露水準為機構投資人之選股決策因素之一。前期年報資訊揭露水準愈佳，機構投資人持股比率愈高，但當期資訊揭露程度對同期機構投資人持股意願則無顯著影響。此外，機構投資人持股比率高低與公司同期或次期資訊揭露程度皆無顯著關聯性。企業資訊揭露水準之改善與機構投資人持股比率增加皆與公司經營績效及公司價值之提升呈顯著正相關。 / Based on a sample of firms listed on Taiwan Securities Exchange over the period of 2002 to 2005, this study first examines the relationship between the information transparency, measured the disclosure level of annual reports, and shareholdings of institutional investors. In addition, this study investigates the influence of increase in the level of disclosure transparency and shareholdings on performance and firm value. The empirical results suggest that firms with higher disclosure level are associated with greater institutional ownership next year, but the same relationship didn’t hold for concurrent period. This finding suggests that disclosure level of annual report is considered by the institutional investors when making their investment decisions. The findings also indicate that improvement in disclosure level and increase in institutional investors’ shareholdings not only enhances the operating performance but also the firm value.

Cette thèse traite essentiellement de l'impact des fonds souverains sur les marchés financiers mondiaux en tenant compte, d’une part de la qualité de l'information véhiculée par les fonds souverains, et d’autre part des réactions des marchés financiers mondiaux suite aux annonces de transactions réalisées par les fonds souverains sur différentes périodes. Sur la base des investissements et désinvestissements des fonds souverains collectés de 2005 à 2015, cet impact est évalué sur différentes périodes (pré et post-crise), et ce selon trois niveaux de transparence déterminés, à savoir élevé, moyen et faible. Les résultats illustrent le fait que les réactions des marchés financiers liées aux transactions réalisées par les fonds souverains sont importantes et sont fonction du degré de transparence ainsi que de la période pendant laquelle sont effectuées ces dernières. En outre, les données corroborent le fait que les fonds souverains ne présentent aucun effet déstabilisant significatif sur les marchés financiers mondiaux. / This thesis examines the impact of Sovereign Wealth Funds on global financial markets by analyzing the quality of information conveyed by Sovereign Wealth Funds and assessing the reactions of announcements of Sovereign Wealth Funds transactions to global financial markets from the different periods. Based on Sovereign Wealth Funds investments and divestments collected from 2005 to 2015, this impact is evaluated on different periods (pre-crisis and post-crisis), and levels of transparency (high, medium and low). The findings suggest that the magnitude of financial markets’ reactions of Sovereign Wealth Funds transaction significant relies on the degree of transparency and the period in which they make transactions. Consequently, this evidence supports to the result that Sovereign Wealth Funds have no significant destabilizing effect on the global financial markets.

Yes / This paper examines the role of institutional investor sentiment in determination of the beta-return relation. Empirical evidence documents a positive (negative) beta-return relation over bearish (bullish) periods, implying that institutional investors can also be sentiment traders.

機構投資者在現今全球的金融市場中佔有舉足輕重的地位，但是在財務理論的領域裡，他們卻是被極度忽略的一群。本文的第一個部分（見第二章）建構在傳統的期望效用理論之下，進而推導出機構投資者的最適動態資產配置模型。研究發現機構投資者的最適動態資產配置乃是由標竿避險元素與跨期-規模避險元素所共同組成。標竿避險元素述說了機構投資者跟隨標竿投資組合的現象，而跨期-規模避險元素除了為資產配置迷思提供了一個可能的解決之道外，更指出機構投資者會隨著所管理的資產增加而趨於保守。再者，近年來傳統的期望效用理論履遭學者們的質疑，許多實證結果均顯示展望理論更能貼切描述人們的行為模式。本文的第二個部分（見第三章）假設機構投資者的行為模式符合展望理論的公理與假說，進而推導出機構投資者的動態資產配置模型。研究發現當機構投資人處於獲利的狀態之下時，其最適動態資產配置和第二章所得到的結果完全相同，但是，當機構投資人處於損失的狀態下時，他會變得比較積極，持有的風險性資產會大於處於獲利狀態之下時所做的決策。雖然行為財務學已行之有年，但是大家對於損失趨避係數對資產配置所造成的影響所卻知極為有限，本文在此提供了一個參考的模型。本研究發現，損失趨避係數對動態資產配置的影響力會被風險趨避係數、個別投資人對機構投資者績效的敏感度以及機構投資者本身所收取的管理費所抵消掉。此外，近年來金融市場巨幅震盪的現象履見不鮮，本文的最後一個部份（見第四章）假設機構投資者的行為模式符合展望理論的公理與假說，進而在跳躍模式下推導出機構投資者的動態資產配置模型。研究發現在跳躍模式下機構投資者的最適動態資產配置乃是由標竿避險元素、跨期-規模避險元素與跳躍避險元素所共同組成。這個新的元素－「跳躍避險元素」，用以描述機構投資者在面對 跳躍模式所帶來的不同衝擊時所產生的不同回應。本研究發現即使面對相同的投資環境，機構投資者仍然會因為本身所處的狀態不同而有不一樣的投資決策，這個結果迥異於傳統的理論模型，是一個相當有趣且值得進一步研究的議題。此外，本研究還發現損失趨避係數在不同的狀況之下會分別發揮不同的影響力，對損失趨避係數在財務理論上的意義提供了另一個新的視野。 / Institutional investors do matter in financial market, but most of the studies on institutional investors have not determined holdings of different assets by institutional investors. Institutional investors who receive payments and deposits from their customers but they are also subject to withdrawals from them. Compared with individual investors, institutional investors do bear the extra risk that evokes from individual investors. Appling dynamic programming approach, we derive the optimal dynamic asset allocation of institutional investors. In chapter 2, we find that the optimal dynamic asset allocation of the institutional investor with exponential utility function contains two components: the benchmark hedge component and the intertemporal-size hedge component. The benchmark hedge component indicates that the institutional investor takes care of the volatility of benchmark portfolio. The intertemporal-size hedge component provides a possible solution to asset allocation puzzle and depicts that the position of risky assets held by the institutional investor is inversively proportional with its total net managed assets. In chapter 3, we take operating cost into account and find that the optimal dynamic asset allocation of the institutional investor with revised value function will hold more risky assets when she is facing losses, and the sensitivity of loss aversion to dynamic asset allocation strategy is inversively proportional with the absolute risk aversion coefficient, the sensitivity of flow to performance, and the management fee charged by the institutional investor. In chapter 4, we consider both the operating cost and the risk of a sudden large shock to security price into account and find that the optimal dynamic asset allocation of the institutional investor has a further component than that in chapter 3. The further component is labeled "jumps hedge component". Besides, the optimal dynamic asset allocation is divided into four situations that figure the institutional investor with different status quo will make different investment decision. It is a very surprisingly result. Furthermore, we find a very interesting phenomenon that the loss aversion coefficient plays different roles in different situations.

Submitted by Maicon Juliano Schmidt (maicons) on 2015-05-19T17:42:55Z No. of bitstreams: 1 2015 - Marcelo Pinto da Silva.pdf: 409898 bytes, checksum: 76321a9a9f4e504829e3de371afa40ec (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-05-19T17:42:55Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 2015 - Marcelo Pinto da Silva.pdf: 409898 bytes, checksum: 76321a9a9f4e504829e3de371afa40ec (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-02-23 / Nenhuma / O presente trabalho concentra-se em uma investigação empírica acerca da relação entre os investidores institucionais e o comportamento dos retornos anormais das ações após a divulgação dos resultados, anomalia reconhecida na literatura estrangeira como post-earnings-announcement drift (PEAD). Esta pesquisa objetiva verificar alterações na hipótese de eficiência de mercado através da relação entre os investidores institucionais e o PEAD. Para tanto, elaborou-se quatro modelos de regressão com dados em painel com base em estudos anteriores em que a variável dependente é o retorno anormal acumulado (RAA) e as variáveis independentes explanatórias da pesquisa são o standardized unexpected earnings (SUE) e a participação acionária dos investidores institucionais (PII). Aplicou-se o teste de hipótese para verificar se a média do RAA era diferente de zero, bem como se aplicou o teste de Hausman para identificar o modelo de efeito fixo ou variável dos dados em painel. Verificou-se que os coeficientes das variáveis PII e RAA foram negativos e significantes a 1% e 10%. Dessa maneira, evidenciou-se para o período e empresas pesquisadas que os investidores institucionais contribuem para a eficiência de mercado, bem como para o conteúdo informativo dos dados contábeis, através de sua relação com o PEAD. / This work focuses on an empirical investigation about the relation between institutional investors and the abnormal returns of shares after earnings announcement, anomaly known in the foreign literature as post-earnings-announcement drift (PEAD). It aims at verifying alterations in the market efficiency hypothesis through the relationship between institutional investors and PEAD. Thus, it was developed four regression models with panel data based on previous studies, in which the dependent variable is the cumulative abnormal return (CAR) and the independent explanatory variables, the standardized unexpected earnings (SUE) and the share participation of investors (SPI). The hypothesis test was applied to verify whether the CAR average was different from zero, as well as it was applied the Hausman’s test to identify the variable or fixed effect of panel data. It was verified that the coefficients of SPI and CAR were negative and significative to 1% and 10%. Thus, it was evidenced for the period and companies investigated that the institutional investors contribute for the market efficiency, as well as for the informative content of accounting data through the relationship with PEAD.

Submitted by William Justo Figueiro (williamjf) on 2015-07-07T22:50:33Z No. of bitstreams: 1 13a.pdf: 561485 bytes, checksum: 1ba23cb627a2fa06d7840891e241621a (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-07-07T22:50:33Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 13a.pdf: 561485 bytes, checksum: 1ba23cb627a2fa06d7840891e241621a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012 / CAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / UNISINOS - Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos / O objetivo da presente dissertação foi analisar se a decisão de investimento dos investidores institucionais é suportada pelo fato das empresas pertencerem a níveis diferenciados de governança corporativa da BM&FBOVESPA. Ocorre que a separação entre propriedade e controle na empresa moderna está altamente relacionada ao problema geral de agência. A assimetria informacional, juntamente com as diferentes disposições de assumir riscos e a emergência de conflitos de interesse, compõe os pressupostos básicos da problemática de agência. A pesquisa, portanto, foi realizada apresentando este embasamento teórico, somado a estudos nacionais e internacionais empíricos cuja relação entre governança corporativa e investidores institucionais foi evidenciada. Estudos similares, visando apenas institutos de previdência privada e não investidores institucionais em sua totalidade foram encontrados em nível nacional. A dissertação aborda as evidências de forma quantitativa, e realiza as análises de forma explicativa. Para a análise dos dados foram utilizadas regressões lineares, com dados em painel. A relação positiva encontrada através de regressões econométricas é prova de que empresas listadas em níveis diferenciados de governança corporativa são mais atrativas para os investidores institucionais. O fato de outras variáveis comporem o modelo econométrico testado, além de terem sido rodados modelos com períodos diferentes (4 e 10 anos) e analisados painéis balanceados e não balanceados, demonstra a robustez da presente dissertação. A mesma poderá contribuir para estudos futuros, visto que compara informações de bolsa de valores brasileira com estudo realizado no mercado americano. / The aim of this thesis was to analyze if the investment decision of institutional investors is supported by the fact of companies which belong to different levels of corporate governance at BM&FBOVESPA. What happens is that the separation of ownership and control in modern enterprise is highly related to the general problem of agency. The asymmetry of information, along with the various provisions to take risks and the emergency of conflicts of interests, makes up the basic assumptions of the problem of agency. Therefore, the research was conducted by presenting this theoretical basis, in addition to national and international empirical studies whose relationship between corporate governance and institutional investors was evident. Similar studies, aiming at only private security institutes and not institutional investors on its totality, were found at national level. The thesis discusses the evidence quantitatively, and performs analyzes in an explanatory way. For data analysis, it was used linear regression with panel data. The positive relationship found through econometric regression is proof that companies listed on differentiated levels of corporate governance are more attractive to institutional investors. The fact that other variables compose the econometric model tested, and have been run models with different periods (4 to 10 years) and analyzed balanced and unbalanced panels, demonstrates the robustness of this thesis. The same could contribute to future studies, since compares information from the Brazilian stock exchange to a study in the American market.

This dissertation consists of two empirical essays. The first chapter titled: “Hedge Fund Activism and Dual Ownership of U.S. Multinationals”. Harford, Wang & Zhang (2017) conclude that holding high cash balances abroad to avoid US taxes causes internal capital markets and investments distortions. We posit that hedge funds target MNCs with more severe internal capital and agency problems. We demonstrate that upon acquiring dual ownership in these firms, hedge funds reduce internal capital problems and improve investment, especially innovation, efficiencies. To further reduce agency costs of foreign cash holdings, hedge funds engage dual firms in focused acquisitions. These improvements are reflected in superior performances of dual firms relative to non-dual firms. Chapter 2 titled as “Innovation Strategies & IPO Underpricing”. In this chapter, we investigate how a firms’ choice of pre-IPO innovation strategies affect IPO pricing. We differentiate the orientation of the issuing firm’s innovation portfolio in terms of exploitative orientation versus explorative orientation based on citations of patents across technology classes. We introduce a measure of innovation power to generate breakthrough innovations. We show that the issuing firms with greater innovation power, especially firms with exploratory orientation of a patent, significantly decrease underpricing and have the power to bargain a higher offer price. Our results suggest that a higher exploration strategy requires more time to negotiate a higher offer price while more valuable innovation requires less time to bargain at the higher offer price.

Il y a eu 723 000 transactions dans l’immobilier ancien en 2013. Les ventes en viager ontreprésenté entre 0,5% et 1% de ce montant. Le taux de propriétaires de plus de 60 ansdépasse les 70%. Les seniors possèdent 700 milliards d’euros dans l’immobilier. Deux acteurscomposent le viager : un acheteur et un vendeur. Du côté de l’offre, les retraités sont de plusen plus nombreux à vendre en viager puisqu’ils ont besoin de liquidités : « house rich, cashpoor »1. Avec l’allongement de la durée de vie, les seniors doivent financer les frais de santéet le coût de la dépendance. Du côté de la demande, les particuliers comme les institutionnelssont à la recherche de diversifications patrimoniales. On trouve deux fois moins d’acheteursque de vendeurs en viager. Les institutionnels ont investi dans l’immobilier commercial et lesparticuliers dans le résidentiel depuis les années 90. Qu’en est-il pour le viager ? Pourquoi cemode d’acquisition n’a-t-il pas encore séduit les investisseurs ? Nous avons identifié deuxfreins majeurs : l’un financier, l’autre juridique. Nous avons simulé un portefeuille de 300viagers réels en utilisant 3 tables de mortalité. La modélisation de notre base de données apermis de trouver un faible taux de rendement interne sur l’espérance de vie du vendeur.Nous avons trouvé des TRI allant de 1,80% à 5,13% selon la table de mortalité retenue. Pourobtenir un taux de rendement interne de 5% sur l’espérance de vie du vendeur, en prenant lamoyenne des trois tables de mortalité, les investisseurs doivent faire baisser le montant de larente viagère de 17,55%.Nous avons recommandé différentes mesures en direction des pouvoirs publics afind’améliorer la liquidité du viager immobilier :-Déduire le paiement de la rente des autres revenus fonciers.-Déduire les intérêts d’emprunts ayant servi à financer le bouquet des autres revenus fonciers.-Reculer la durée de la clause résolutoire d’un à trois mois.-Ramener à 15 ans l’exonération des plus-values immobilières. / There were 723,000 transactions in existing property in 2013. Life annuity sales accounted forbetween 0.5% and 1% of this amount. The rate of home ownership among the over 60 agegroup exceeds 70%. Senior citizens own 700 million worth of real estate. Life annuity salesinvolve two players: a buyer and a seller. On the supply side, an increasing number ofpensioners are selling their property for life annuities since they need cash: «house rich, cashpoor». With longer life expectancy, senior citizens need to finance health and dependencycosts. On the demand side, both private and institutional investors seek asset diversification.However, there are twice as few buyers than sellers for life annuity property. Since thenineties, institutional investors have invested in commercial property, and private investors inresidential property. What is the situation for life annuity property sales ? We may wonderwhy this form of property acquisition has not so far attracted investors. We have identifiedtwo major hurdles: one financial, the other one legal. We have simulated a portfolio of 300real life annuity sales by using 3 mortality tables. The modeling of our data base enabled us toidentify a weak rate of return on the life expectancy of the seller. We found rates of internalreturn ranging from 1.8% to 5.13% according to the mortality table retained. In order toobtain a 5% rate of internal return on the life expectancy of the seller, taking the average ofthe three mortality tables, investors need to lower the amount of the life annuity by 17.55%.We have recommended different measures to the public authorities in order to improve theliquidity of property life annuities : deduct the payment of the annuity from other propertyincome, deduct the interests of loans used to fund the other property income mix and increasethe duration of the cancellation clause from one to three months.