No description available.

It is projected that by 2025 three-quarters of the world’s population will live in the coastal zone. This is an alarming statistic, with a consequently significant impact on small coastal towns and the adjacent marine environments. Developing communities within the coastal zone of South Africa have proved to be a significant pollution source of storm water. Studies have shown that storm water that is deposited in the ocean will be trapped in the near shore marine environment causing poor seawater quality over a large distance. Furthermore, this can pose a significant threat to the health of recreational users and important marine ecosystems. In Jeffreys Bay storm water quality is thought to pose a threat to the maintenance of the international Blue Flag status for its beach. The aim of the current project was to investigate the main sources of storm water and subsequent marine pollution at Jeffreys Bay and to develop an appropriate management strategy using the integrated environmental management framework. In order to achieve this objective, it was also necessary to determine the current quality of water at various points within the catchment and near shore marine environment. Even though the storm water was found to be severely contaminated no evidence existed for a negative impact on the marine environment. None the less, a precautionary approach was adopted and a risk assessment employed in order to consider potential impacts on the marine and aquatic environment, human health and socio-economic welfare within the town. Significant sources of storm water contamination included grey water, domestic solid waste disposal and informal ablution. These significant aspects were investigated further and it was found that solid waste management in the catchment was poor with significant quantities of waste, primarily (76%) from domestic sources, being disposed of illegally. A study of sanitation management showed inadequacies where up to 58% of the residents from the informal settlements disposed of their grey water into open spaces. The ratio of residents to toilets in these areas was 28:1, therefore supporting the outcome of the risk assessment. Due to the fact that all the significant aspects were related to anthropogenic waste, an integrated waste management plan (IWMP) was developed that would not only facilitate the reduction of pollution of storm water, but would also allow for sustainable community-based development.

This paper discusses characteristics of standard conjugate priors and their induced posteriors in Bayesian inference for von Mises-Fisher distributions, using either the canonical natural exponential family or the more commonly employed polar coordinate parameterizations. We analyze when standard conjugate priors as well as posteriors are proper, and investigate the Jeffreys prior for the von Mises-Fisher family. Finally, we characterize the proper distributions in the standard conjugate family of the (matrixvalued) von Mises-Fisher distributions on Stiefel manifolds.

Orientador: Caio Lucidius Naberezny Azevedo / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Matemática Estatística e Computação Científica / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-23T07:11:52Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Nogarotto_DaniloCovaes_M.pdf: 12817108 bytes, checksum: 0e5e0de542d707f4023f5ef62dc40a82 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013 / Resumo: No presente trabalho desenvolvemos ferramentas de inferência bayesiana para modelos de regressão beta e beta inflacionados, em relação à estimação paramétrica e diagnóstico. Trabalhamos com modelos de regressão beta não inflacionados, inflacionados em zero ou um e inflacionados em zero e um. Devido à impossibilidade de obtenção analítica das posteriores de interesse, tais ferramentas foram desenvolvidas através de algoritmos MCMC. Para os parâmetros da estrutura de regressão e para o parâmetro de precisão exploramos a utilização de prioris comumente empregadas em modelos de regressão, bem como prioris de Jeffreys e de Jeffreys sob independência. Para os parâmetros das componentes discretas, consideramos prioris conjugadas. Realizamos diversos estudos de simulação considerando algumas situações de interesse prático com o intuito de comparar as estimativas bayesianas com as frequentistas e também de estudar a sensibilidade dos modelos _a escolha de prioris. Um conjunto de dados da área psicométrica foi analisado para ilustrar o potencial do ferramental desenvolvido. Os resultados indicaram que há ganho ao se considerar modelos que contemplam as observações inflacionadas ao invés de transformá-las a fim de utilizar modelos não inflacionados / Abstract: In the present work we developed Bayesian tools, concerning parameter estimation and diagnostics, for noninflated, zero inflated, one inflated and zero-one inflated beta regression models. Due to the impossibility of obtaining the posterior distributions of interest, analytically, all these tools were developed through MCMC algorithms. For the regression and precision parameters we exploited the using of prior distributions commonly considered in regression models as well as Jeffreys and independence Jeffreys priors. For the parameters related to the discrete components, we considered conjugate prior distributions. We performed simulation studies, considering some situations of practical interest, in order to compare the Bayesian and frequentist estimates as well as to evaluate the sensitivity of the models to the prior choice. A psychometric real data set was analyzed to illustrate the performance of the developed tools. The results indicated that there is an overall improvement in using models that consider the inflated observations compared to transforming these observations in order to use noninflated models / Mestrado / Estatistica / Mestre em Estatística

Récemment, la grande complexité des applications modernes, par exemple dans la génétique, l’informatique, la finance, les sciences du climat, etc. a conduit à la proposition des nouveaux modèles qui peuvent décrire la réalité. Dans ces cas,méthodes MCMC classiques ne parviennent pas à rapprocher la distribution a posteriori, parce qu’ils sont trop lents pour étudier le space complet du paramètre. Nouveaux algorithmes ont été proposés pour gérer ces situations, où la fonction de vraisemblance est indisponible. Nous allons étudier nombreuses caractéristiques des modèles complexes: comment éliminer les paramètres de nuisance de l’analyse et faire inférence sur les quantités d’intérêt,dans un cadre bayésienne et non bayésienne et comment construire une distribution a priori de référence. / Recently, the great complexity of modern applications, for instance in genetics,computer science, finance, climatic science etc., has led to the proposal of newmodels which may realistically describe the reality. In these cases, classical MCMCmethods fail to approximate the posterior distribution, because they are too slow toinvestigate the full parameter space. New algorithms have been proposed to handlethese situations, where the likelihood function is unavailable. We will investigatemany features of complex models: how to eliminate the nuisance parameters fromthe analysis and make inference on key quantities of interest, both in a Bayesianand not Bayesian setting, and how to build a reference prior.

Neste trabalho discutimos os principais argumentos da inferência bayesiana subjetivista. Posteriormente, a partir de uma revisão da literatura dos testes de hipóteses, os principais testes são analisados sob a ótica da teoria da decisão, particularmente no que tange às hipóteses precisas. Adicionalmente, funções de perda para testes de significância, seguindo a proposta de Fisher e do FBST, são analisadas e comparadas. / This work discusses the main points of the bayesian subjectivist inference. Posteriorly, from a literature review of hypothesis testing, the main approaches are interpreting from a decision-theoretic viewpoint, particularly regarding the precise hypotheses. Additionally, loss functions for tests of significance, following the proposal of Fisher and FBST, are analyzed and compared.

Neste trabalho discutimos os principais argumentos da inferência bayesiana subjetivista. Posteriormente, a partir de uma revisão da literatura dos testes de hipóteses, os principais testes são analisados sob a ótica da teoria da decisão, particularmente no que tange às hipóteses precisas. Adicionalmente, funções de perda para testes de significância, seguindo a proposta de Fisher e do FBST, são analisadas e comparadas. / This work discusses the main points of the bayesian subjectivist inference. Posteriorly, from a literature review of hypothesis testing, the main approaches are interpreting from a decision-theoretic viewpoint, particularly regarding the precise hypotheses. Additionally, loss functions for tests of significance, following the proposal of Fisher and FBST, are analyzed and compared.

In 1755 Henrietta Louisa Jeffreys, Countess of Pomfret, donated a substantial collection of Greco-Roman statuary to the University of Oxford. Once part of a larger collection assembled under Thomas Howard, 14th Earl of Arundel, the statues had descended to Jeffreys through the family of her husband, Thomas Ferrnor, having been purchased in 1691 for their country seat at Easton Neston in Northamptonshire. Oxford gratefully received this benefaction and it was publicly (and variously) commemorated. Emphasis on 'quality' and reliance on 'authority' have previously obscured the importance of the Pomfret statuary, subsuming it within Arundel's iconic connoisseurship. Interdisciplinary in approach, this dissertation employs new archival evidence to resituate the Pomfret marbles within larger historical and art-historical contexts and (citing contemporary images and texts) re-evaluates the collection's cultural significance. Adopting the approach of Dr. Carol Gibson-Wood, my work augments new scholarship concerned with reassessing the character of the early modern art market and its associated collecting practices. The primary concern in the dissertation is restoring the voice of Henrietta Louisa Jeffreys, whose motives for the benefaction have previously been misrepresented. Her personal response to social and cultural conditions actuated both her obtaining the statues and her dispensing of them. A second concern is to contextualize Oxford's status within the socio-political discourse of early Georgian England in order to demonstrate that the Pomfret collection was genuinely valuable to the Ufiiversity. The collection provided a collective symbol of vertu (which implied commitment to correct moral behaviour and taste) for that embattled academic institution and identified Oxford as a location of national importance. The dissertation's structure is provided with a third consideration which ultimately incorporates the other two - the provenance of the statuary. While proceeding chronologically from Arundel's acquisition through Oxford's reception, the historical details are augmented with analyses of how the collection was promoted and perceived. By revealing how ideals and ideologies of vertu informed the collection, its donation, its publicists, and its audience, this dissertation addresses the wider significance of the Pomfret benefaction in early modern England.

L'objectif de ces travaux est d'étudier la dynamique de différents types de vagues extrêmes en eau peu profonde et plus particulièrement les tsunamis et les vagues scélérates. Pour modélisation et analyse, les simulations numériques sont réalisées à l'aide d'une méthode d'intégrales de frontières appelée BIEM (Boundary Integral Equation Method). Dans un premier temps nous considérons numériquement la dynamique des ondes solitaires, modèles simples pour les vagues de tsunamis dont la phase appelée "runup" sera l'objet d'un développement particulier. Afin de valider le modèle BIEM, nous confrontons les résultats numériques d'une onde solitaire déferlante avec une approche expérimentale. Une méthode de génération numérique de ces ondes est ensuite développée. Enfin une étude complète sur la collision frontale de deux ondes solitaires de Tanaka est effectuée. Un nouveau phénomène est alors découvert, puis exploré, la formation d'un jet résiduel en chute libre apparaissant à partir d'une valeur critique du paramètre de non linéarité a/h. Nous considérons ensuite numériquement la génération de vagues scélérates en eau peu profonde par focalisation d'énergie due à la nature dispersive des vagues. Ce travail s'attache à étudier entre autres l'influence du vent sur la dynamique de ces vagues. Le mécanisme d'abri proposé par Jeffreys est modifié par l'introduction d'un seuil de pente pour lequel un décollement aérien au-dessus des vagues apparaît. Ces vagues sont alors amplifiées et leur durée de vie est significativement augmentée."

Submitted by Automa??o e Estat?stica (sst@bczm.ufrn.br) on 2017-01-13T12:23:37Z No. of bitstreams: 1 IsaacJalesCostaSouza_DISSERT.pdf: 808186 bytes, checksum: 0218f6e40a4dfea5b56a9d90f17e0bfb (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Arlan Eloi Leite Silva (eloihistoriador@yahoo.com.br) on 2017-01-23T13:11:35Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 IsaacJalesCostaSouza_DISSERT.pdf: 808186 bytes, checksum: 0218f6e40a4dfea5b56a9d90f17e0bfb (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-01-23T13:11:35Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 IsaacJalesCostaSouza_DISSERT.pdf: 808186 bytes, checksum: 0218f6e40a4dfea5b56a9d90f17e0bfb (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-01-28 / Neste trabalho ? apresentada uma abordagem bayesiana dos modelos pot?ncia normal bimodal (PNB) e pot?ncia normal bimodal assim?trico (PNBA). Primeiramente, apresentamos o modelo PNB e especificamos para este prioris n?o informativas e informativas do par?metroque concentra a bimodalidade (?). Em seguida, obtemos a distribui??o a posteriori pelo m?todo MCMC, o qual testamos a viabilidade de seu uso a partir de um diagn?stico de converg?ncia. Depois, utilizamos diferentes prioris informativas para ? e fizemos a an?lise de sensibilidadecom o intuito de avaliar o efeito da varia??o dos hiperpar?metros na distribui??o a posteriori. Tamb?m foi feita uma simula??o para avaliar o desempenho do estimador bayesiano utilizando prioris informativas. Constatamos que a estimativa da moda a posteriori apresentou em geralresultados melhores quanto ao erro quadratico m?dio (EQM) e vi?s percentual (VP) quando comparado ao estimador de m?xima verossimilhan?a. Uma aplica??o com dados bimodais reais foi realizada. Por ?ltimo, introduzimos o modelo de regress?o linear com res?duos PNB. Quanto ao modelo PNBA, tamb?m especificamos prioris informativas e n?o informativas para os par?metros de bimodalidade e assimetria. Fizemos o diagn?stico de converg?ncia para o m?todo MCMC, que tamb?m foi utilizado para obter a distribui??o a posteriori. Fizemos uma an?lise de sensibilidade, aplicamos dados reais no modelo e introduzimos o modelo de regress?o linear com res?duos PNBA. / In this paper it is presented a Bayesian approach to the bimodal power-normal (BPN) models and the bimodal asymmetric power-normal (BAPN). First, we present the BPN model, specifying its non-informative and informative parameter ? (bimodality). We obtain the posterior distribution by MCMC method, whose feasibility of use we tested from a convergence diagnose. After that, We use different informative priors for ? and we do a sensitivity analysis in order to evaluate the effect of hyperparameters variation on the posterior distribution. Also, it is performed a simulation to evaluate the performance of the Bayesian estimator using informative priors. We noted that the Bayesian method shows more satisfactory results when compared to the maximum likelihood method. It is performed an application with bimodal data. Finally, we introduce the linear regression model with BPN error. As for the BAPN model we also specify informative and uninformative priors for bimodality and asymmetry parameters. We do the MCMC Convergence Diagnostics, which is also used to obtain the posterior distribution. We do a sensitivity analysis, applying actual data in the model and we introducing the linear regression model with PNBA error.