<p>Idag är krigföringens principer en vedertagen del av svensk doktrin. Så har det inte alltid varit. För ungefär ett sekel sedan tvistade militära tänkare i väst om det överhuvudtaget fanns något som kunde kallas för krigföringens principer. Det finns än idag de som hävdar att det inte finns några principer, eller att krigföring är en konst och inte en vetenskap. I Försvarsmaktens doktriner är dessa principer dock en väsentlig komponent. Detta arbete skildrar hur principerna gradvis tog sig in i Försvarsmaktens reglementen och doktriner för armén samt belyser hur de olika principerna dök upp, byttes ut och fick olika innebörd sedan de först implementerats i ett svenskt reglemente 1924.</p> / <p>The aim of this essay is to outline how the principles of war were implemented in Swedish army regulations and doctrines. The essay attempts to answer the following questions: What trends can be identified with regards to the importance of different principles? How have the principles been understood historically? The material used consists mainly of regulations and doctrine for the Swedish army from different parts of the 20th century. The method of the author is to analyze and compare the different regulations to come to conclusions about the importance of the principles of war in Swedish military history. The results of the essay indicate that surprise is the principle that has been a part of Swedish regulations the longest. This in turn could indicate that surprise is the principle that is the least susceptible to change in tactics and modernization.</p>

Idag är krigföringens principer en vedertagen del av svensk doktrin. Så har det inte alltid varit. För ungefär ett sekel sedan tvistade militära tänkare i väst om det överhuvudtaget fanns något som kunde kallas för krigföringens principer. Det finns än idag de som hävdar att det inte finns några principer, eller att krigföring är en konst och inte en vetenskap. I Försvarsmaktens doktriner är dessa principer dock en väsentlig komponent. Detta arbete skildrar hur principerna gradvis tog sig in i Försvarsmaktens reglementen och doktriner för armén samt belyser hur de olika principerna dök upp, byttes ut och fick olika innebörd sedan de först implementerats i ett svenskt reglemente 1924. / The aim of this essay is to outline how the principles of war were implemented in Swedish army regulations and doctrines. The essay attempts to answer the following questions: What trends can be identified with regards to the importance of different principles? How have the principles been understood historically? The material used consists mainly of regulations and doctrine for the Swedish army from different parts of the 20th century. The method of the author is to analyze and compare the different regulations to come to conclusions about the importance of the principles of war in Swedish military history. The results of the essay indicate that surprise is the principle that has been a part of Swedish regulations the longest. This in turn could indicate that surprise is the principle that is the least susceptible to change in tactics and modernization.

This essay aims to analyse if the Russian military operation carried out against Georgia between the 7th and 12th of august 2008 were executed with adherence to the Russian principles for military deception, maskirovka.    A superior purpose is to assess the situation according to the Swedish Armed Forces task of identifying possible needs for new or changed needs for abilities and competence.    The method used is two-alternative hypotheses which are tried by comparing actual events before and during the Russian-Georgian war with the ten methods of maskirovka, compiled from military analytical literature. Such traces of resemblance are further examined, both individually and as a part of a larger indication.    Further the essay describes the Russian art of war, the prerequisites for military surprise, information warfare in Russian doctrine, the disputed territories of South Ossetia and Abkhazia and the principles for maskirovka.    The conclusion is that the Russian operation was executed with some adherence to maskirovka, though unspecified of to what degree.    Author of this essay is Cadet Martin Svensson of the Swedish Army, currently a student at the Armed Forces Technical School in Halmstad.

<p>Lic.-avh. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan, 2013</p>

We consider a statistical theory as being invariant when the results of two statisticians' independent data analyses, based upon the same statistical theory and using effectively the same statistical ingredients, are the same. We discuss three aspects of invariant statistical theories. Both model checking and checking for prior-data conflict are assessments of single null hypothesis without any specific alternative hypothesis. Hence, we conduct these assessments using a measure of surprise based on a discrepancy statistic. For the discrete case, it is natural to use the probability of obtaining a data point that is less probable than the observed data. For the continuous case, the natural analog of this is not invariant under equivalent choices of discrepancies. A new method is developed to obtain an invariant assessment. This approach also allows several discrepancies to be combined into one discrepancy via a single P-value. Second, Bayesians developed many noninformative priors that are supposed to contain no information concerning the true parameter value. Any of these are data dependent or improper which can lead to a variety of difficulties. Gelman (2006) introduced the notion of the weak informativity as a comprimise between informative and noninformative priors without a precise definition. We give a precise definition of weak informativity using a measure of prior-data conflict that assesses whether or not a prior places its mass around the parameter values having relatively high likelihood. In particular, we say a prior Pi_2 is weakly informative relative to another prior Pi_1 whenever Pi_2 leads to fewer prior-data conflicts a priori than Pi_1. This leads to a precise quantitative measure of how much less informative a weakly informative prior is. In Bayesian data analysis, highest posterior density inference is a commonly used method. This approach is not invariant to the choice of dominating measure or reparametrizations. We explore properties of relative surprise inferences suggested by Evans (1997). Relative surprise inferences which compare the belief changes from a priori to a posteriori are invariant under reparametrizations. We mainly focus on the connection of relative surprise inferences to classical Bayesian decision theory as well as important optimalities.

We consider a statistical theory as being invariant when the results of two statisticians' independent data analyses, based upon the same statistical theory and using effectively the same statistical ingredients, are the same. We discuss three aspects of invariant statistical theories. Both model checking and checking for prior-data conflict are assessments of single null hypothesis without any specific alternative hypothesis. Hence, we conduct these assessments using a measure of surprise based on a discrepancy statistic. For the discrete case, it is natural to use the probability of obtaining a data point that is less probable than the observed data. For the continuous case, the natural analog of this is not invariant under equivalent choices of discrepancies. A new method is developed to obtain an invariant assessment. This approach also allows several discrepancies to be combined into one discrepancy via a single P-value. Second, Bayesians developed many noninformative priors that are supposed to contain no information concerning the true parameter value. Any of these are data dependent or improper which can lead to a variety of difficulties. Gelman (2006) introduced the notion of the weak informativity as a comprimise between informative and noninformative priors without a precise definition. We give a precise definition of weak informativity using a measure of prior-data conflict that assesses whether or not a prior places its mass around the parameter values having relatively high likelihood. In particular, we say a prior Pi_2 is weakly informative relative to another prior Pi_1 whenever Pi_2 leads to fewer prior-data conflicts a priori than Pi_1. This leads to a precise quantitative measure of how much less informative a weakly informative prior is. In Bayesian data analysis, highest posterior density inference is a commonly used method. This approach is not invariant to the choice of dominating measure or reparametrizations. We explore properties of relative surprise inferences suggested by Evans (1997). Relative surprise inferences which compare the belief changes from a priori to a posteriori are invariant under reparametrizations. We mainly focus on the connection of relative surprise inferences to classical Bayesian decision theory as well as important optimalities.

This thesis is about the design and evaluation of a graphical display that aims at showing the behavior of a complex automated system in action. A problem with complex automation is that it sometimes surprises the user by performing actions that were not expected. The reason of this is poor communication of system activities. In order to study how to design for anticipative automation communication a prototype around automatic vehicle driving on highways was designed and evaluated. The design work focused on designing a display that contained anticipation as a use quality. This resulted in a display design that aimed at representing the working scene in such a way that the user would be able to recognize and compare the system view with the real situation. In order to accomplish this, three layers of information were merged together in the display, these layers were; the automaton’s image of how the world is seen, the way that image is perceived and interpreted in terms of system action necessity and out of that the actions that the system plans to perform in the near future. The evaluation of the design prototype showed that it was possible to anticipate system actions but that the information detail level was insufficient for the evaluators to completely trust system decisions. The evaluation also showed that trust can be created by letting the automaton represent the perception of the situation in such a way that the user is able to compare it to personal experience from performing the task manually. Anticipation can be created through showing what future the automaton is expecting and what actions that needs to be performed in order to reach or maintain the general system task or goal.

Denna uppsats undersöker hur den svenska konstnären Greta Knutson historiskt sett har kanoniserats i relation till sitt förhållande med den kände dadaisten Tristan Tzara och den franska surrealiströrelsen under 1920- och 1930-talet. Knutson hade en lång och produktiv karriär och uppsatsens intention är att flytta fokus från de tidiga dagarna i Paris med surrealisterna till hennes senare konstnärliga period, räknad från slutet på 1960-talet fram till hennes död 1983. Min tes är att en radikal stilförändring då skedde till ett, paradoxalt nog, mer surrealistisk konstnärligt uttryck. Med hjälp av Griselda Pollock och det teoretiska begreppet ”kanonisering” ifrågasätts varför denna senare period i stort har gått förbi konsthistorien och hur Knutsons relation till surrealismen sett ut. Genom en formalistisk analys presenteras därefter verken La Surprise, Feu dans la maison och Det stulna brevet, vilka är representativa för Knutsons senare konstnärliga period. / This essay examines how Swedish born artist Greta Knutson has been historically canonised in reference to her relationship with the famous Dadaist Tristan Tzara and the French surrealist movement of the 1920’s and 1930’s. Knutson had a long and productive career and the overall purpose of my essay is to change focus from the early days in Paris with the Surrealists into her later artistic period, counted from the late 1960’s until her death in 1983. It is claimed here that she then made a radical change of style into, paradoxically, a more surrealistic artistic expression. Through Griselda Pollock and the term “canonisation” I’m exploring and questioning why Knutson’s later career has gone unnoticed in art history and I’m also looking at Knutson’s relation to surrealism. Through a formalistic analysis the artworks La Surprise, Feu dans la maison and Det stulna brevet are presented, which are representative for Knutson’s later artistic period.

The research regarding the six day war and the aerial operations named Operation Moked is extensive but there are certain shortcomings in the research that examines both the operation and the principle of surprise. The aim of this paper is to contribute to this research by utilising existing military theories on the principle of surprise in order to identify indicators that are representative of surprise.  These indicators are thereafter used in a study of Operation Moked in order to examine the extent of in which the principle was utilised. The result of this research goes to show that the principle of surprise was utilised in great extent by Israel during Operation Moked. / Det har bedrivits mycket forskning kring Sexdagarskriget och det lyckade israeliska luftanfallet Operation Moked men det finns vissa brister i forskningen på operationen kopplat till krigföringsprincipen överraskning. Denna uppsats syftar till att bidra till detta forskningsläge genom att använda militära teoribildningar kring principen överraskning och bryta ut indikatorer på vad som kännetecknar principen. Dessa indikatorer används sedan i en studie av Operation Moked för att undersöka i vilken utsträckning principen tillämpades. Resultatet av denna undersökning påvisar att överraskning tillämpades i stor utsträckning av Israel under Operation Moked.

A surpresa positiva tem sido citada como um elemento responsável pelos altos níveis da satisfação do consumidor. O objetivo do presente trabalho foi estudar a influência dos valores humanos com a satisfação do consumidor quando da ocorrência de uma surpresa positiva. Para esse fim, foi efetuada uma survey aleatória online via a plataforma de Amazon Mechanichal Turk. A partir disso, foram mensurados os construtos conceituais surpresa, satisfação do consumidor e a tipologia de valores humanos de Schwartz. Uma vez coletados os resultados, passou-se a analisar as relações lineares através do método de Equações Estruturais não Paramétricas. A primeira relação analisada foi entre os valores humanos e a surpresa positiva, resultando estatisticamente significantes os valores benevolência, estimulação e poder. A segunda relação foi entre os valores humanos com a satisfação, sendo significativos os valores autodeterminação, benevolência, tradição, e negativamente o hedonismo. Por último, foram verificadas as interações entre a surpresa positiva e valores humanos na satisfação do consumidor, resultando significante positivamente o valor hedonismo. / Surprise has been referred as one of the main elements of consumer delight satisfaction. The purpose of the present work was to study the influence of individual’s human values on consumer´s satisfaction when a positive surprise occurs. An online survey through Amazon´s Mechanical Turk was conducted in order to measure a possible relationship between surprise, satisfaction, and Schwartz’s human values constructs. Statistical linear analyses with a non-parametric Structural Equation Modelling procedure were performed. Three relationships among the constructs were analysed. The first one was between human values and positive surprise; the values that showed significance were benevolence, stimulation, and power. The second relationship analysed were between values and satisfaction; the values that show statistical significance were achievement, benevolence, tradition and negatively hedonism. Moreover, a third analysis was conducted to check possible interactions between positive surprise and human values into satisfaction. Results displayed hedonism as a human value with statistical significance.