A surpresa positiva tem sido citada como um elemento responsável pelos altos níveis da satisfação do consumidor. O objetivo do presente trabalho foi estudar a influência dos valores humanos com a satisfação do consumidor quando da ocorrência de uma surpresa positiva. Para esse fim, foi efetuada uma survey aleatória online via a plataforma de Amazon Mechanichal Turk. A partir disso, foram mensurados os construtos conceituais surpresa, satisfação do consumidor e a tipologia de valores humanos de Schwartz. Uma vez coletados os resultados, passou-se a analisar as relações lineares através do método de Equações Estruturais não Paramétricas. A primeira relação analisada foi entre os valores humanos e a surpresa positiva, resultando estatisticamente significantes os valores benevolência, estimulação e poder. A segunda relação foi entre os valores humanos com a satisfação, sendo significativos os valores autodeterminação, benevolência, tradição, e negativamente o hedonismo. Por último, foram verificadas as interações entre a surpresa positiva e valores humanos na satisfação do consumidor, resultando significante positivamente o valor hedonismo. / Surprise has been referred as one of the main elements of consumer delight satisfaction. The purpose of the present work was to study the influence of individual’s human values on consumer´s satisfaction when a positive surprise occurs. An online survey through Amazon´s Mechanical Turk was conducted in order to measure a possible relationship between surprise, satisfaction, and Schwartz’s human values constructs. Statistical linear analyses with a non-parametric Structural Equation Modelling procedure were performed. Three relationships among the constructs were analysed. The first one was between human values and positive surprise; the values that showed significance were benevolence, stimulation, and power. The second relationship analysed were between values and satisfaction; the values that show statistical significance were achievement, benevolence, tradition and negatively hedonism. Moreover, a third analysis was conducted to check possible interactions between positive surprise and human values into satisfaction. Results displayed hedonism as a human value with statistical significance.

A surpresa positiva tem sido citada como um elemento responsável pelos altos níveis da satisfação do consumidor. O objetivo do presente trabalho foi estudar a influência dos valores humanos com a satisfação do consumidor quando da ocorrência de uma surpresa positiva. Para esse fim, foi efetuada uma survey aleatória online via a plataforma de Amazon Mechanichal Turk. A partir disso, foram mensurados os construtos conceituais surpresa, satisfação do consumidor e a tipologia de valores humanos de Schwartz. Uma vez coletados os resultados, passou-se a analisar as relações lineares através do método de Equações Estruturais não Paramétricas. A primeira relação analisada foi entre os valores humanos e a surpresa positiva, resultando estatisticamente significantes os valores benevolência, estimulação e poder. A segunda relação foi entre os valores humanos com a satisfação, sendo significativos os valores autodeterminação, benevolência, tradição, e negativamente o hedonismo. Por último, foram verificadas as interações entre a surpresa positiva e valores humanos na satisfação do consumidor, resultando significante positivamente o valor hedonismo. / Surprise has been referred as one of the main elements of consumer delight satisfaction. The purpose of the present work was to study the influence of individual’s human values on consumer´s satisfaction when a positive surprise occurs. An online survey through Amazon´s Mechanical Turk was conducted in order to measure a possible relationship between surprise, satisfaction, and Schwartz’s human values constructs. Statistical linear analyses with a non-parametric Structural Equation Modelling procedure were performed. Three relationships among the constructs were analysed. The first one was between human values and positive surprise; the values that showed significance were benevolence, stimulation, and power. The second relationship analysed were between values and satisfaction; the values that show statistical significance were achievement, benevolence, tradition and negatively hedonism. Moreover, a third analysis was conducted to check possible interactions between positive surprise and human values into satisfaction. Results displayed hedonism as a human value with statistical significance.

Orientador: Walter Alexandre Carnielli / Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Filosofia e Ciências Humanas / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-22T18:44:28Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Gorsky_Samir_D.pdf: 3035896 bytes, checksum: db93ac414c907c773d150c2f466be554 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013 / Resumo: O presente trabalho tem por objetivo avaliar o papel do estudo sistemático da surpresa, do espanto, da admiração e dos enigmas para a teoria do conhecimento e, em termos mais gerais, para a filosofia. Tal estudo envolve ainda conceitos filosóficos importantes tais como os de informação, jogo, problema, raciocínio, conhecimento e ignorância. A análise lógico-filosófica que enfocam a teoria da informação serão baseadas, em princípio, nos trabalhos de Yehoshua Bar-Hillel, Rudolf Carnap e Jaakko Hintika (CARNAP; BARHILLEL, 1952), (CARNAP; BAR-HILLEL, 1953) e (HINTIKKA, 1970) sobre a semântica da informação e no texto de Walter A. Carnielli, Marcelo E. Coniglio e João Marcos (CARNIELLI et al., 2007) sobre lógicas da inconsistência formal. Neste âmbito, tem-se como meta identificar o espectro lógico subjacente a um cenário informativo arbitrário. A partir disso, propomos uma teoria semântica da informação tendo em conta constituintes não-clássicos. Investigamos a ideia de que algumas partes da teoria dos enigmas e da noção formal de surpresa são instâncias da teoria dos jogos sobre cenários não-clássicos, a relevância de tal estudo para a filosofia e, em particular, para a teoria do conhecimento / Abstract: This work is directed towards a systematic study of surprise, wonder, admiration and puzzles within the context of epistemology and philosophy. This study also involves important philosophical concepts such as information, game, problem, reasoning, knowledge and ignorance. The logical and philosophical analysis about information theory will be firstly based on the work of Jaakko Hintika, Yehoshua Bar-Hillel and Rudolf Carnap (CARNAP; BAR-HILLEL, 1952), (CARNAP; BAR-HILLEL, 1953) and (HINTIKKA, 1970) on the semantics of information, and on the text of Walter A. Carnielli, Marcelo E. Coniglio and João Marcos (CARNIELLI et al., 2007) on the logics of formal inconsistency. In this context, the goal is to identify the logical spectrum underlying an informative scenario. After this step, we propose a semantic information theory with non-classical constituents. We will investigate the idea that parts of the puzzle theory and the formal concept of surprise are instances of the game theory on non-classical scenarios and the relevance of such study for philosophy, in particular to epistemology / Doutorado / Filosofia / Doutor em Filosofia

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Faire de l’humour peut sembler être un divertissement qui vise à faire rire un spectateur. Pourtant, la question à savoir ce qu’est faire de l’humour est loin de faire l’unanimité et c’est précisément la question de ce mémoire. Dans le premier chapitre, je discuterai de la nature de l’objet humoristique qui est généralement considéré comme un objet unidimensionnel alors qu’il devrait être analysé sous trois dimensions : son contenu (le sujet), son contenant (la forme) et son contexte (l’environnement). Une seule de ces dimensions peut être amusante pour que l’objet soit amusant. Dans le chapitre 2, j’expliquerai ce qui est considéré comme amusant en présentant les diverses théories philosophiques en humour : la théorie de la supériorité, celle du relâchement et celle de l’incongruité. Il ressort de la discussion que parmi ces théories, seule celle de l’incongruité est universelle à tous les objets humoristiques. Au chapitre 3, je défendrai l’idée que l’amusement est une émotion au même titre que la peur et la colère, car il répond à la plupart des critères qui permettent de définir une réaction affective comme étant une émotion. Finalement, au chapitre 4, je soutiens le fait que l’amusement n’est pas la seule émotion qui joue un rôle en humour : la surprise est « introductive » à l’amusement. La surprise peut modifier la perception qu’un individu a de son propre amusement. Je suggère que faire de l’humour requiert une connaissance du spectateur afin de générer une « surprise-amusement » chez ce dernier. / Humour may seem like entertainment that aims to make someone laugh. Yet, the question of what it is to be humorous is far from unanimous and that is precisely the question of this thesis. In the first chapter, I will discuss the nature of the humorous object, which is usually considered as a one-dimensional object, whereas it should be analyzed in three dimensions: its content (the subject), its container (the form) and its context (the environment). Only one of these dimensions need to be comic for the object to be amusing. In chapter 2, I will explain what is considered amusing by presenting the various philosophical theories of humour: the superiority theory, the relief theory, and the incongruity theory. The discussion will show that of these theories, only the incongruity theory is universal to all humorous objects. In chapter 3, I will argue that amusement is an emotion in the same way as fear and anger as it meets most of the criteria for defining an affective reaction as an emotion. Finally, in chapter 4, I argue that amusement is not the only emotion that plays a role in humour: surprise is "introductory" to amusement. Surprise can alter an individual’s perception of their own amusement. I suggest that making humour requires knowledge of the spectator to be able to generate "surprise-amusement".

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Changes to the marketing environment occur in numerous ways and with a wide range of characteristics. This research examines the effects of - and responses to - surprise, which is defined as disruptive, discontinuous events that result in unexpected changes to the environment. Some authors have suggested that organizations have tended to overestimate their ability both to predict and to control calamitous environmental events, resulting in relatively little attention being paid to environmental surprise in the marketing literature (Cunha et al, 2006). Indeed, much of the research in this domain has focused on improving organizations' ability to recognize - or even anticipate - such events, thus rendering them not surprises (Ansoff, 1975; Lampel & Shapira, 2001). But, as Cunha and associates respond, "... researchers should investigate how organizations might deal with unanticipated events," not just how to avoid them (2006, p. 320, emphasis added). This research addresses a portion of the identified gap. Just as there is a range of possible changes and change types, organizations' responses also vary. Depending on the nature of the environmental event(s), the appropriate form of strategic response can be quite different. Therefore, how organizations respond to environmental change is a critical element of their marketing strategies. Remaining properly aligned with their external surroundings has repeatedly been shown to produce significant benefits in terms of marketing performance and financial success (Venkatraman & Prescott, 1990). Barney and associates state that "... to the extent some firms in a rapidly changing environment are more nimble, more able to change quickly, and more alert to changes in their competitive environment, they will be able to adapt to changing market conditions more rapidly than competitors, and thus gain competitive advantage" (2001, p. 631). Study 1 What happens when firms are confronted by a strategic surprise - defined as "sudden, urgent, unfamiliar change" (Ansoff 1975, p. 22) - such as the terrorist attacks that occurred on September 11, 2001? Numerous studies have examined how strategic change, in the aftermath of a significant environmental event, contributes to organizational survival and success. But, is strategic change the appropriate response to unexpected and disruptive environmental change? And is there a preferred trajectory for change, such that certain strategies are better suited than others to the post-surprise environment? This exploratory research examines whether or not strategic change is an appropriate response to strategic surprise by considering the actions of motor carriers in the aftermath of 9/11. The data evidences significant disruption to the trucking industry following the event; for example, among the sample, mean operating ratios declined by more than 50%. But while nearly 40% of the carriers studied changed their strategies in the post-9/11 environment, this did not guarantee better performance. In fact, all carriers fared worse following the attacks, but those carriers that changed strategies actually performed significantly worse than those that persisted with their pre-9/11 strategies. Study 2 In Study 2, a scoring model of strategic resilience is developed that enables motor carriers to assess their likelihood of withstanding disruptive environmental change. Supply chain resilience is an emergent research stream that considers the ability of a supply chain network to anticipate, prepare for, and adapt to significant environmental risks in the form of disruptions and unanticipated events (Ponomarov & Holcomb, 2009). This study examines the ability of motor carriers - a critical and essential component of most supply chains - to survive such events. Using variables identified in Study 1, together with those from numerous previous studies in the prediction-model research domain, the second study considers which factors are significant and contribute the most utility to an overall resilience score. In addition, this study approaches the model-building process using a proven methodology (conjoint analysis) which previously has not been applied to this type of research, while examining an especially broad range of possible alternatives. The resultant model provides firms in the motor-carrier industry with a "resilience score" that suggests their likelihood of survival in the post-event marketing environment. The resilience model enables motor carriers to self-assess their ability to withstand disruptive events in the marketing environment, including strategic surprises such as 9/11. Motor carriers with weaker scores (i.e., less than 600, on a scale from 300 to 900) are more likely to exit - though clearly are not guaranteed to do so. This model correctly identified nearly 70% of carriers that ultimately exited from the industry. In addition, the model provided evidence of where motor carriers should focus their attention in a post-disruption marketing environment. Six factors emerged as most significant to carriers' resilience as evidenced by the model. These elements are recommended as the metrics to which carriers themselves - and dependent supply chain network members - pay most attention following an environmental disruption. / Business Administration/Marketing

I examine the implications of changes in operating profit margins during a sales decline for future earnings and abnormal stock returns. When sales decrease, managers decide whether to cut slack resources. Managers who are optimistic about their future operations often retain slack resources in anticipation of resurging sales, thereby decreasing concurrent profitability. Conversely, managers who are pessimistic about their future operations typically reduce slack resources to gain efficiency, thereby increasing concurrent profitability. I find that analysts and investors persistently underestimate the future profitability of firms that exhibit a large decrease in current profitability. I also find that subsequent quarterly earnings announcements gradually reveal future profitability, resulting in concentrated positive abnormal returns in short pre-announcement windows for about a year after a sales decline. These results suggest that analysts and investors have difficulties evaluating managers’ resource adjustment decisions when a large decrease in concurrent profitability can indicate managers’ optimistic expectations. / Business Administration/Accounting

達成或超越分析師的盈餘預期為公司重要目標之一，市場包括投資人或分析師對於公司達成盈餘預期目標的反應，一直為學界所關心。文獻發現達成盈餘預期目標的公司，確實享有較未達成目標者更高的股價報酬，顯示市場對此持有正面的反應，因為達成目標的公司，未來將有較佳的獲利能力。本文延伸文獻之探討，進一步考量經濟環境因素---景氣反轉，在這一議題上可能扮演的角色，亦即試圖探討景氣反轉時市場對公司達成或超越分析師盈餘預期的反應，以及達成盈餘預期目標的資訊內涵，會如何受到景氣反轉因素的影響。 實證結果發現達成或超越分析師盈餘預期事件所帶來的股價反應，不會受到景氣由上往下反轉的影響而有所差異，但分析師對此等事件的反應則會隨景氣由上往下反轉而更為強烈，在景氣由下往上反轉時則較無差異；至於此等事件所隱含公司未來將有較佳獲利能力的資訊內涵，雖不會隨著景氣由上往下反轉而有所差異，卻會隨著景氣由下往上反轉而更為增強。 / Meeting or beating analysts’ earnings forecasts is an important goal for the management to achieve. As a result, the market reaction to the meeting of earnings expectations has been intensively explored. In general, the meeting of earnings expectations signals brilliant future profitability to the investors. Following this line of research, this study further investigates the effect of business cycle on the relationship between market reaction and the meeting of earnings expectations. We find that the stock returns of firms meeting or beating analysts’ forecasts are not affected by the sudden downturn of the economy. On the contrary, analysts’ response to such events becomes stronger in the economic downturn though it remains the same when the economy rebounds. As for the issue of information content, meeting earnings expectations is more informative when the economy rebounds from recession but not in the downturn of the economy.