Investments in power systems are characterized by large investment costs and uncertainties doto extended time frame. New consumption patterns in the electricity grid, as well as an aginggrid calls for modernization, new solutions and new investments. Components in the electricalsystem is characterized by most of their costs that are caused after their acquisition. One stateof the art method in analyzing investments over long time frames and provide long-term costestimation is life cycle costing (LCC). In LCC a "cradle to grave"-approach is performed whichenables comparative cost assessment to be made. This thesis reviews the existing literature inprobabilistic life cycle costing and gives a step by step methodology for DSOs to systematicallyaddress uncertainty in cost and technical parameters.This thesis proposes a Monte Carlo sampling method in combination with a Markov Chainfailure model to model failures is providing a comprehensive method of reaching nancial benetwhen comparing dierent investment decisions. The model evaluates nancial implications andtechnical properties to demonstrate the total cost of components. This thesis analyses a casefor Swedish distribution system operators and their investment in transformers. The proposedmodel includes an all-covering model of costs and incentives. The main conclusion is that probabilisticlife cycle costing benets investment decisions and the applied method shows promisingresults in addressing uncertainty and investment risks. The developed PLCC model is used onan investment decision where two transformers are compared. Results shows that PLCC is apowerful tool and could be used in power system applications. / Investeringar i kraftsystem kännetecknas av höga investeringskostnader och osäkerheter på grundav komponenternas långa livslängd. Nya konsumtionsönster och ett föråldrat elsystem efterfrågar mordenisering, nya lösningar och nya investeringar. Komponenter i elnätet karakteriserasav att den största delen av kostnader orsakas efter de förvärvats. En framstående metod för attanalysera investeringar som löper över långa tidsspann och som kan ge en kostnadsestimeringär livscykelkostnadsanalys. Inom livscykelkostnadsanalys tillämpas ett från vaggan till graventillvägagångssätt vilket möjliggör jämförelser av kostnader. Denna uppsats granskar existerandeforskning inom probabilistisk livscykelanalys och ger en steg-för-steg-metodik för att en distributionsnätsoperatör systematiskt skall kunna adressera osäkerheter relaterade till kostnader samttekniska parametrar.Denna uppsatsen föreslår en Monte Carlo-metod i kombination av en Markovkedja, för attmed en heltäckande metod nå finansiell jämförbarhet mellan olika investeringsbeslut. Denna uppsatsenanalyserar ett fall för en svensk distributionsnätsoperatör och dess investering i transformatorer.Den föreslagna modellen inkluderar en heltäckande modell för kostnader och incitamet.Huvudresultatet från den föreslagna metoden är att probabilistisk livscykelkostnadsanalys samtde använda metoderna visar lovande resultat för att adressera osäkerheter och risker vid investeringsbeslut.

This essay is a bachelor thesis written for the Degree Program in Constructional Engineering and Design at The Royal Institute of Technology (KTH). This thesis was an assignment given by WSP Sweden and their bridge and water department. The purpose of this report is to conduct an examination on the Life Cycle Cost (LCC) on a prestressed glulam deck bridge and a composite bridge in the early stages of the design phase. This report illuminates the factors that are most crucial in a LCC-calculation for the selected overpasses, and provides an overview regarding which overpass is most efficient from an economic standpoint. The LCC has been calculated based on an 80-year lifespan for the prestressed glulam deck bridge and a 120-year lifespan for the composite bridge. The cost of investment, operating, maintaining and finally the demolition cost was all considered as well. The bridge works that were examined are real life projects in an early stage of the design phase with plans to be built. In the results, the LCC-analysis shows a clear difference in life cycle costs between the prestressed glulam deck bridge and the composite bridge and show that the cost of investment is the most decisive cost during the bridges’ lifespans. The LCC-calculations show that the total life cycle cost for a prestressed glulam deck bridge is higher than the composite bridges’ total life cycle cost.

Since the transportation sector still relies mostly on fossil fuels, the emissions and overall environmental impacts of the transportation sector are particularly relevant to the mitigation of the adverse effects of climate change. Sustainable transportation therefore plays a vital role in the ongoing discussion on how to promote energy insecurity and address future energy requirements. One of the most promising ways to increase energy security and reduce emissions from the transportation sector is to support alternative fuel technologies, including electric vehicles (EVs). As vehicles become electrified, the transportation fleet will rely on the electric grid as well as traditional transportation fuels for energy. The life cycle cost and environmental impacts of EVs are still very uncertain, but are nonetheless extremely important for making policy decisions. Moreover, the use of EVs will help to diversify the fuel mix and thereby reduce dependence on petroleum. In this respect, the United States has set a goal of a 20% share of EVs on U.S. roadways by 2030. However, there is also a considerable amount of uncertainty in the market share of EVs that must be taken into account. This dissertation aims to address these inherent uncertainties by presenting two new models: the Electric Vehicles Regional Optimizer (EVRO), and Electric Vehicle Regional Market Penetration (EVReMP). Using these two models, decision makers can predict the optimal combination of drivetrains and the market penetration of the EVs in different regions of the United States for the year 2030. First, the life cycle cost and life cycle environmental emissions of internal combustion engine vehicles, gasoline hybrid electric vehicles, and three different EV types (gasoline plug-in hybrid EVs, gasoline extended-range EVs, and all-electric EVs) are evaluated with their inherent uncertainties duly considered. Then, the environmental damage costs and water footprints of the studied drivetrains are estimated. Additionally, using an Exploratory Modeling and Analysis method, the uncertainties related to the life cycle costs, environmental damage costs, and water footprints of the studied vehicle types are modeled for different U.S. electricity grid regions. Next, an optimization model is used in conjunction with this Exploratory Modeling and Analysis method to find the ideal combination of different vehicle types in each U.S. region for the year 2030. Finally, an agent-based model is developed to identify the optimal market shares of the studied vehicles in each of 22 electric regions in the United States. The findings of this research will help policy makers and transportation planners to prepare our nation*s transportation system for the future influx of EVs. The findings of this research indicate that the decision maker*s point of view plays a vital role in selecting the optimal fleet array. While internal combustion engine vehicles have the lowest life cycle cost, the highest environmental damage cost, and a relatively low water footprint, they will not be a good choice in the future. On the other hand, although all-electric vehicles have a relatively low life cycle cost and the lowest environmental damage cost of the evaluated vehicle options, they also have the highest water footprint, so relying solely on all-electric vehicles is not an ideal choice either. Rather, the best fleet mix in 2030 will be an electrified fleet that relies on both electricity and gasoline. From the agent-based model results, a deviation is evident between the ideal fleet mix and that resulting from consumer behavior, in which EV shares increase dramatically by the year 2030 but only dominate 30 percent of the market. Therefore, government subsidies and the word-of-mouth effect will play a vital role in the future adoption of EVs.

In infrastructure construction projects especially bridge investments, the most critical decisions that significantly affect the whole bridge LCC are the early stages decisions. Clearly, it's more beneficial to correctly choose the optimum bridge than to choose the optimum construction or repair method. The ability of a bridge to provide service over time demands appropriate maintenance by the agency. Thus the investment decision should consider not only the initial activity that creates a public good, but also all future activities that will be required to keep that investment available to the public. This research is aiming for bridge sustainability, enhance the bridge related decision making, and facilitate the usage of the bridge related feedbacks. The development of a reliable and usable computer tool for bridge LCC & LCA evaluation is the main target. Toward the main goal, many steps were fulfilled. A unique integrated Bridge LCC evaluation methodology was developed. Two systematic evaluation ways were developed, one for bridge user cost and one for the bridge aesthetical and cultural value. To put these two systematic ways in practice, two preliminary computer programs were developed for this purpose. Today and future works are focusing on developing methodology and preliminary computer tool for bridge agency cost as well as the bridge LCA evaluation. KTH unique LCC evaluation system will enable the decision makers to correctly choose the optimum bridge in the early stages decision making phases as well as any later on reparation method. / ETSI

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Oil palm has flourished as an economically vital crop in Indonesia given its use in both food and non-food products (including biodiesel) for domestic and export markets. However, the expansion of oil palm plantations in Indonesia is controversial. While the crop generates fiscal earnings for the country, and regular income streams for farmers and companies, oil palm plantation expansion is claimed to cause deforestation, environmental degradation and biodiversity losses. At the same time, there is a national target to reduce GHG emissions from land use change and the production of palm oil. Climate change mitigation goals also include ambitious targets to blend biodiesel with fossil diesel in various economic sectors. This thesis looks at the palm oil agro-industry, from oil palm plantation to crude palm oil (CPO) production, and CPO based biodiesel production. It proposes a policy evaluation to verify policy implications in relation to the issue of land use allocation, and the poor profitability in palm oil biodiesel production. The overarching objective is to evaluate the effectiveness of prevailing policies used to promote the palm oil agro-industry for biodiesel production in Indonesia. The thesis is framed by policy research and ex-post policy evaluation. The focus is on the process of policy formulation and implementation, rather than outcome evaluation. Two specific analytical frameworks are used to answer the research questions while addressing the criteria of effectiveness in policy evaluation: (i) policy coherence analysis and (ii) life cycle cost analysis. Qualitative indicators are used to measure the coherence of biofuel policy with other sectoral policies (agriculture, climate and forestry) in relation to land allocation. Quantitative economic indicators are used to compare the costs and benefits of conventional palm oil biodiesel production with a biorefinery conceptual plant. There are valuable lessons to be learnt from this policy evaluation. The results indicate areas in which policy effectiveness can be improved. For land allocation, adjustments and improvements in policy formulation and implementation are crucial. Uncertainties when it comes to the allocation of land to meet multi sectoral policy goals are to be addressed by clarifying land use definitions and categories, which should be backed up by consistent land use definitions in various policy documents. The dual land classification presently applied should move towards a single land classification, linking actual landscape coverage and the legal status of the land. Policy information and guidance across sectoral policies should be compiled in a single database. Such a publicly available database would help enhance the efficiency of land allocation for multiple policy purposes. More importantly, the formulation of biodiesel policy has to engage various sectoral policies that compete for the same resources. The biorefinery conceptual plant allows the reduction of government subsidies, while also providing a pathway to enhance the use of renewable energy and reduce GHG emissions. Policies have been designed to enhance plant profits through the improved utilisation of biomass residues in the palm oil mill for energy generation and composting. However, the low implementation rate of policies indicates the need to improve the effectiveness of policy implementation, and therefore the need for better monitoring processes, and possibly more stringent consequences for non-compliance. / <p>QC 20180223</p>

Äldre flerbostadshus står för en stor del av Sveriges totala energianvändning som behöver sänkas föratt minska klimatpåverkan och klara regeringsmålet om effektivare energianvändning. Examensarbetets syfte är därför att bidra till en ökad kunskap om energieffektivisering genom åtgärder i äldre byggnaders klimatskärm, och om hur åtgärder kan värderas genom energisimulering och livscykelkostnadsanalys. Målet är att identifiera vilka åtgärder som är ekonomiskt och arkitektoniskt lämpliga för äldre flerbostadshus med intresse av att bevara deras karaktär. Det är även att bedöma vilken energibesparing och livscykelkostnad de utvalda åtgärderna genererar. Ett flerbostadshus i centrala Luleå valdes ut som referensbyggnad. Byggnaden är genom sin konstruktion och design representativ för tidseran. Intressanta åtgärder samt åtgärdspaket i dess klimatskal valdes ut. Sedan utfördes en bred litteraturgenomgång om bostadsbyggandet i Sverige 1945–1964, byggnadens energianvändning, energieffektivisering av klimatskalet, de utvalda åtgärderna samt metoderna energisimulering och livscykelkostnadsanalys. Referensbyggnaden dokumenterades och en energisimuleringsmodell byggdes i programvaran IDA ICE. Den nuvarande utformningen av byggnaden simulerades och kalibrerades mot senast uppmätt normalårskorrigerad energianvändning. Sedan utfördes simuleringar för de utvalda åtgärderna och åtgärdspaketen vilka bestämts till tilläggsisolering av vindsbjälklag, byte av fönster till lågenergifönster och tätning av otätheter runt dessa, en kombination av båda tidigare åtgärder (åtgärdspaket 1), tilläggsisolering av fasad och fönsterbyte, samt en kombination av alla tre åtgärder (åtgärdspaket 2). Livscykelkostnaderna för nuläget och för implementering av de olika åtgärderna beräknades genom nuvärdeskostnadsmetoden. Även återbetalningstider beräknades genom simple-payback-metoden. Byggnadens nuvarande utformning gav efter kalibrering en simulerad energianvändning på 136,2 kWh/(m2Atemp,år); 2,9 % över det senast uppmätta normalårskorrigerade värdet. Nuvärdeskostnaden för att inte utföra någon åtgärd beräknades till ca 2 727 tkr. Åtgärderna genererade energibesparingar på 3,5–14,6 %, nuvärdeskostnader på 2 685-5 880 tkr och återbetalningstider på 7-105 år. För varje adderad åtgärd i klimatskalet ökade energibesparingen. Tilläggsisolering av vindsbjälklag visade sig vara den enda lönsamma åtgärden, då den har en nuvärdeskostnad som är lägre än att inte utföra någon åtgärd. En känslighetsanalys utfördes för kostnadsberäkningarna där diskonteringsräntan höjdes och sänktes med 2 % och energipriset höjdes med 10 %. Tilläggsisoleringav vindsbjälklag kvarstod dock som den enda lönsamma åtgärden. Åtgärderna hade kunnat generera högre procentuell energibesparing för en annan liknande byggnad. Referensbyggnaden innehåller ett stort renoverat kontor vilket ger en lägre nuvarande energianvändning och lägre procentuell energibesparing för åtgärder än om endast den äldre bostadsdelen studerats. Då Luleå har Sveriges lägsta energipris är åtgärder med hög investeringskostnad ekonomiskt svårmotiverade. Detta beror på att kostnadsbesparingarna genom minskad energianvändning blir små i förhållande till åtgärdernas investeringskostnader. Tilläggsisolering av fasad kan inte rekommenderas då åtgärden både är mycket olönsam och förändrar byggnadens uttryck väsentligt. Slutsatsen är att tilläggsisolering av vindsbjälklag är den lämpligaste åtgärden för äldre flerbostadshus, av de undersökta åtgärderna för energieffektivisering i klimatskalet. Den är arkitektoniskt lämplig med hänsyn till bevarandet av byggnaden då den inte förändrar byggnadens utseende. Den är även ekonomiskt lämplig då den har en livscykelkostnad som är lägre änalternativet att inte utföra någon åtgärd. För fortsatta studier föreslås bl.a. att undersöka hur åtgärder kan göras mer attraktiva för fastighetsägare, att kartlägga fastigheter från tidseran (skick, energianvändning, resultat av åtgärder, möjligheter) samt att utvärdera potentialen av ny teknik. / Old multifamily houses stand for a large part of Sweden’s total energy usage, which must decrease to minimize our environmental impact and to accomplish the government goal of more efficient energy usage. The aim of this master thesis is therefore to contribute to an increased knowledge on energy optimization through building envelope improvements in older buildings, and how energy efficiency measures can be evaluated through building energy simulation and life cycle cost analysis. The goal is to identify which measures that are economically and architecturally appropriate for old multifamily houses with interest in retaining their character. It is also to evaluate which energy saving and life cycle cost the selected measures generate. A multifamily house in central Luleå was selected as reference building. The building is by its construction and design representative for the era. Interesting energy efficiency measures in the building envelope were chosen. Then a wide literature study was carried out on house building in Sweden 1945-1964, building energy usage, energy efficiency through building envelope measures, the selected measures and the methods building energy simulation and life cycle cost analysis. The reference building was documented and an energy simulation model was built in the software IDA ICE. A present version of the building was simulated and calibrated to better match the latest normalised annual value. After that, simulations were performed for the selected measures; additional attic insulation, change to low energy windows and weather stripping these, a combination of both previous measures, additional facade insulation and change of windows, and a combination of all three measures. The life cycle costs of the present situation and for implementation of the different measures were calculated through the net present cost method. Also, payback times were calculated through the simple payback method. The building in its original state showed a post-calibration energy usage of 136,2 kWh/(m2Atemp,year); 2,9 % above the surveyed value. The net present cost for not performing any energy conservation measures was calculated to about 2 727 SEK. The measures generated energy savings of 3,5-14,6 %, net present costs of 2 685 -5 880 SEK and payback times of 7-105 years. For each added measure in the building envelope, the energy saving increased. Additional insulation of the attic turned out to be the only profitable measure, since its net present cost is lower than for not performing any energy conservation measure. A sensitivity analysis was performed for the cost analyses where the discount rate was raised and lowered by 2 % and the energy price raised by 10 %. However, the additional attic insulation remained as the only profitable measure. The energy conservation measures could have generated greater energy savings for a similar building. The reference building contains a large retrofitted office which lowers the present energy usage and the percental energy savings for measures compared to if only the dwelling part had been studied. Since Luleå has Sweden’s lowest energy prices, measures with high investment costs become difficult to give grounds for. This is because the cost savings achieved by their energy savings are low compared to their investment costs. Additional facade insulation cannot be recommended since it both is very unprofitable and highly changes the appearance of the building. The conclusion is that additional attic insulation is the most appropriate energy conservation measure for old multifamily houses, of selected measures in the building envelope. It can be regarded as architecturally appropriate since it does not change the building appearance. It is also economically appropriate since its life cycle cost is lower than for not performing any measure. Suggested future research includes analyzing how energy efficiency measures can be made more attractive for real estate owners, charting real estate from the era (condition, energy usage, results from measures, opportunities) and evaluating the potential of new technology within the field.

I Sverige står bostadssektorn för mer än en tredjedel av landets energianvändning. Byggnader måste minska sin energianvändning för att således kunna uppfylla framtida lagkrav om maximal tillåten energianvändning, men också för att minska påverkan till global uppvärmning. Ytterligare en problematik som råder, däribland i Sverige, är bostadsbrist. Kommunala bostadsbolag står inför utmaningen att kunna bygga bostäder snabbt, billigt och miljövänligt för att minska bostadsbristen i landet. Ett sätt att studera två av tre hållbarhetsaspekter vid val av framtida bostadsbyggande är att utföra en livscykelanalys (LCA) och livscykelkostnadsanalys (LCC) kring de tilltänkta husen. LCA:er indikerar vilken miljöpåverkan en produkt förorsakar under dess livslängd. LCC:er avser att studera vilka kostnader produkter ger upphov till under en given analysperiod. Det svenska kommunala bostadsbolaget Stångåstaden AB står inför utmaningen kring bostadsbrist och vill bygga hållbara bostäder. Bostadsbolaget har önskat en jämförande LCA och LCC av två verkliga flerbostadshus som de genom ramavtal kan upphandla, detta är utgångspunkten för denna studie. Den ena byggnaden har stomme av betong, den andra har stomme av trä. Husen är tänkta att placeras i utkanten av Linköping, Sverige. Studien har valt att analysera miljöpåverkan från husens olika livscykelfaser samt kostnader över analysperioden 50 år. Utöver detta studeras även vilka energieffektiviseringsåtgärder (EEÅ) till byggnaderna som är optimala att genomföra för att öka den termiska prestandan hos huskonstruktionerna. Från litteraturen finns det relativt få studier som kombinerar både LCA och LCC för vanligt förekommande hustyper i städer. I dess standardfall påvisade resultatet från LCA:n att huset med betongkonstruktion hade något lägre påverkan i sex av sju studerade miljöpåverkanskategorier, jämfört med flerbostadshuset i trä. Resultatet skilde sig lite åt då annan typ av indata användes. Vad gäller kostnader under husens livslängd var huset i trä ungefär 20 % dyrare jämfört med huset med betongkonstruktion. Trots annan typ av indata var träkonstruktionen dyrare än betongkonstruktionen. Med en kalkylränta på 7,5 % var det inte lönsamt att genomföra EEÅ för husen, med halverad kalkylränta blev det dock lönsamt att tilläggsisolera krypgrunden i huset med trästomme. Fler studier behöver utföras för att generalla slutsatser ska kunna dras kring vilket konstruktionsmaterial som är mest hållbart. Denna studie baseras på två specifika fall. Samma resultat kan eventuellt inte förväntas för andra byggnader med stomme i betong och trä. / The residential sector accounts for more than a third of the energy use in Sweden. To reduce the energy use of buildings is a necessity in order to meet future regulationof maximum allowable energy, but also important to reduce the impact on global warming. Another complexity arising in Sweden is the shortage of accommodation. Municipal housing corporations face the challenge of constructing residences fast, cheap and with concern of environmental effects in order to reduce the shortage of accommodation. One way of assessing two of the three aspects of sustainability when looking at future construction of residential buildings is to carry out a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and a Life Cycle Cost Assessment (LCCA). An LCA can indicate what kind of environmental impact a product causes over its lifetime and the LCC allows for assessing what types of costs are associated with the product. For the municipal housing corporation Stångåstaden AB the shortage of accommodation is a reality and their mindset is sustainable construction of residences. This study was conducted upon request from Stångåstaden who wanted a comparative LCA and LCCA between two prefabricated multi-residential buildings that are available to them through a framework agreement. The first building has a concrete foundation and the second one is made of wood. The houses are planned to be placed at the outskirts of Linköping, Sweden. The focus of this study has been to comparatively assess the environmental impact from the different life cycle phases and the economic costs of the two buildings during a time period of 50 years. Moreover, the thesis also analyze the optimal retrofit strategy for the buildings in order to find the optimal (lowest) life cycle cost. Furthermore, the current literature has conveyed relatively few studies that combine both LCA and LCC methodology for house types that are common in most towns. The result from the LCA indicated that the house with concrete construction had a little less impact in six of the seven studied environmental impact categories compared to the house made of wood. The result differed slightly when the input data were changed. Regarding the LCCA the house made of wood was roughly 20 % more expensive than its concrete counterpart. Changing the input data revealed no difference in the result. With an interest rate of 7,5 % no retrofits were profitable for either building, however reducing the interest rate to half its original value made it cost optimal to increase the floor insulation for the house made of wood. More studies should be conducted to be able to draw general conclusions regarding which construction material that is the most sustainable. This thesis is based on two specific and real cases. The same result could possibly not be expected from other studies comparing buildings with concrete and wood construction.