1999年澳門回歸中國大陸後，博弈產業成為澳門經濟發展的龍頭。近十年來，伴隨著澳門人均GDP上升、博弈產業的豐厚利潤、政府稅收逐年提升等經濟急速發展的現象，使得澳門模式成為東亞國家競相模仿的對象，而博弈產業是否造成地方經濟產業單一化，或是帶動其他產業齊頭式發展，也是各界爭論的議題。特別在澳門與中國簽訂《內地與澳門關於建立更緊密經貿關係的安排》(CEPA)後，由於開放內地遊客「自由行」政策，使得博弈產業錦上添花。為了清楚瞭解博弈產業對澳門經濟發展到底造成何種影響，本文主要研究目的有以下兩點：一為探討博弈產業是否對澳門人均GDP是否造成影響，二為比較在「自由行」政策實施前後，博弈產業對澳門經濟的影響。 根據實證結果顯示，博彩消費、人口、公共支出、CEPA的簽訂，皆與澳門人均GDP呈現正向關係，證明了博弈產業的確影響澳門經濟發展甚大。但研究結果也顯示，博弈產業在「自由行」實施後，對澳門經濟影響力反而下降，因此本研究推論，在「自由行」實施前，澳門經濟大部分靠博彩業支撐，其他產業積弱不振；「自由行」實施後，其他產業得到發展機會，增長速度超越博彩業發展的速度，才會造成本研究實證結果。 總的來說，博彩業在澳門與中國簽訂CEPA後，反而減弱其影響力，表示在「自由行」實施後，其他產業並沒有隨著博彩業的壯大而消失，反而跟著博彩業一同成長，澳門產業結構並無朝向單一化，反而更加多元。帶動其他行業發展，有利建設先進、多元化的綜合城市。 / The gambling industry has become the leading industry in Macau since Macau return to China in 1999. This decade, accompanying with the rise of Macau’s GDP per capita, the huge profits the gambling industry, such as the phenomenon of rapid economic growth, making “Macau Pattern” become a model which East Asian countries compete to imitate. It is a controversial issue that if the gambling industry made the local industry more singlize or led other industry develop. Especially after Macao and China signed the "Mainland and Macao Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement" (CEPA), the opening up of the Mainland visitors as a result of "Free Trip" policy, helping the gambling industry develop rapidly. In order to clearly understand the game industry how to impact Macao's economic development, the purposes are to investigate the relationship between gambling industry and economic development of Macau. The empirical result shows: gambling consumption, population, public expenditure and CEPA signing have significant positive effects on economic development in Macau, Proving that the impact of the game industry is indeed a great economic development of Macau. The result also shows that after the signing of CEPA, gambling industry has fewer impact on economic development in Macau. Therefore, we infer that all industries except gambling industry were weak before “Free Trip”, and other industry got chance to develop after “Free Trip”. To sum up, the gambling industry is the main industry that affects the economic development in Macau. After “Free Trip”, other industries didn’t disappear or decline, all of them keep developing with gambling industry.

Denna uppsats försöker besvara frågan: Vad förklarar skillnader i trångboddhet mellan OECD:s medlemsländer? Detta görs genom tvärsnittsstudie där jag analyserar vilken effekt faktorerna Hyresreglering, Reglering av byggbranschen, Demografiska förändringar, Styrande regeringsparti och Välstånd har på Trångboddheten. Tjugonio av OECD:s medlemsländer har tagits med i analysen. Med hjälp av en multipel linjär regression baserat på observationsdata från variablerna presenteras resultaten. Slutsatserna är att Reglering av byggbranschen och Välstånd har störst effekt på Trångboddheten. / This paper attempts to answer the research question: What explains the differences in housing density between the members of the OECD? This is done by a cross-sectional study in which I analyze the impact of rent regulation, regulation of the construction industry, demographic changes, executive government party and wealth has on the dependent variable housing density. Twenty-nine of the OECD members have been included in the analysis. The paper is using a multiple linear regression to analyze the results. The conclusions are that the regulation of the construction industry and wealth has the greatest effect on housing density.

Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited / Recent insurgent tactics during Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF) have demonstrated that coalition logistical convoys are vulnerable targets. This thesis examines the tactics, techniques and procedures (TTPs) used in convoy operations in an attempt to identify the critical factors that lead to mission success. A ground convoy operation scenario is created in the agentbased model (ABM) Map Aware Non-uniform Automata (MANA). The scenario models a generic logistical convoy consisting of security vehicles, logistical vehicles, an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and an enemy ambushing force. The convoy travels along a main supply route (MSR) where it is ambushed by a small insurgent force. We use military experience, judgment and exploratory simulation runs to identify 11 critical factors within the created scenario. The data farming process and Latin Hypercube (LHC) experimental design technique are used to thoroughly examine the 11 factors. Using the 11 factors 516 design points are created and data farmed over to produce 25,800 observations. Additive multiple linear regression is used to fit a model to the 25,800 observations. From the created scenario it is concluded that: convoy mission success may be determined by only a few factors; the actions of logistical vehicles are more critical than those of security vehicles; UAVs provide a statistically significant advantage; and ABMs coupled with LHCs and data farming are valuable tools for understanding complex problems. / Captain, United States Marine Corps

Die Kapitel 1 bis 6 im ersten Teil dieses Skriptes beruhen auf einer Vorlesung Ökonometrie I, die zuletzt im WS 2001/02 gehalten wurde, die Kapitel 7 bis 16 beruhen auf einer Vorlesung Ökonometrie II, die zuletzt im SS 2006 gehalten wurde. Das achte Kapitel enthält eine komprimierte Zusammenfassung der Ergebnisse aus dem Teil Ökonometrie I.

Objectives: This study sought to determine the relationship between combat experience and mental health outcomes. The study sought to determine whether age was a significant factor in poor mental health outcomes. Methods: Multiple logistic regression (n = 195,048) and multiple linear regression (n = 264,154) were performed on the 2006 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) survey. Veteran status and a host of demographic and health status questions were analyzed in relation to diagnosis of anxiety or depressive disorder (multiple logistic regression) and to number of days poor mental health (multiple linear regression). Results: Diagnosis of anxiety or depression was not found to be associated with veteran status. Among both veterans and non-veterans, diagnosis was associated with age Conclusions: Contrary to expectations, veteran status was found to be a protective factor for poor mental health outcomes in this analysis. Younger age was found to be associated with poor mental health outcomes, but was an equal association in both veterans and non-veterans, suggesting that mental health outcomes have not been worsened by recent changes in combat characteristics. Denial of mental health status, stoicism within the military community, and limitations of the survey are proposed to explain the unexpected outcome of this analysis.

Dans une turbine hydraulique, la rotation des aubes dans l’eau crée une zone de basse pression, amenant l’eau à passer de l’état liquide à l’état gazeux. Ce phénomène de changement de phase est appelé cavitation et est similaire à l’ébullition. Lorsque les cavités de vapeur formées implosent près des parois, il en résulte une érosion sévère des matériaux, accélérant de façon importante la dégradation de la turbine. Un système de détection de l’érosion de cavitation à l’aide de mesures vibratoires, employable sur les turbines en opération, a donc été installé sur quatre groupes turbine-alternateur d’une centrale et permet d’estimer précisément le taux d’érosion en kg/ 10 000 h. Le présent projet vise à répondre à deux objectifs principaux. Premièrement, étudier le comportement de la cavitation sur un groupe turbine-alternateur cible et construire un modèle statistique, dans le but de prédire la variable cavitation en fonction des variables opératoires (tels l’ouverture de vannage, le débit, les niveaux amont et aval, etc.). Deuxièmement, élaborer une méthodologie permettant la reproductibilité de l’étude à d’autres sites. Une étude rétrospective sera effectuée et on se concentrera sur les données disponibles depuis la mise à jour du système en 2010. Des résultats préliminaires ont mis en évidence l’hétérogénéité du comportement de cavitation ainsi que des changements entre la relation entre la cavitation et diverses variables opératoires. Nous nous proposons de développer un modèle probabiliste adapté, en utilisant notamment le regroupement hiérarchique et des modèles de régression linéaire multiple. / Cavitation erosion which results from repeated collapse of transient vapor cavities on solid surfaces is a constant problematic in hydraulic turbine runners and continues to enforce costly repair and loss of revenues. A vibratory detection system of cavitation erosion was installed 10 years ago for continuous monitoring of 4 hydropower units. A new hardware version of the system was developed and installed in 2010. This new system configuration is more reliable and allows more accurate evaluation of the cavitation erosion of the runners in kg/10 000 h. The first objective of this study is to investigate cavitation behavior upon one generating unit and to build a statistical model which will allow prediction of instant cavitation related to operating variables, such as gate opening, water flow, headwater level, tailwater levels, etc. The second objective is to develop a methodology for the reproducibility of the studies to other sites. A retrospective study will be conducted and we will mainly focus on data available since the system update in 2010. The preliminary analysis enhanced the complexity of the phenomenon. Indeed, changes in the relationship between cavitation and various operating variables were observed and could be due to a seasonal behavior or different operating conditions. Using hierarchical clustering and regression models, we formalize this heterogeneity by developing a model which includes operating variables such as active power, tailwater level and gate opening.

Master of Science / Department of Plant Pathology / William Bockus / Barley yellow dwarf (BYD) is one of the most important wheat diseases in the state of Kansas. Despite the development of cultivars with improved levels of resistance to BYD, little is known about the impact that this resistance has on yield loss from the disease. The intent of this research was to estimate yield loss in winter wheat cultivars in Kansas due to BYD and quantify the reduction in losses associated with resistant cultivars. During seven years, BYD disease incidence was visually assessed on numerous winter wheat cultivars in replicated field nurseries. Cultivars were planted about three weeks early to promote disease. When grain yields were regressed against BYD incidence scores, negative linear relationships significantly fit the data for each year and for the combined dataset covering all seven years. The models showed that, depending upon the year, 19-48% (average 33%) of the yields was explained by BYD incidence. For the combined dataset, 29% of the relative yield was explained by BYD incidence. The models predicted that cultivars showing high disease incidence had 25-86% (average 49%) less yield than a hypothetical cultivar that showed zero incidence. Using the models, the moderate level of resistance in the cultivar Everest was calculated to reduce yield loss from BYD by about 73%. Therefore, utilizing visual BYD symptom evaluations in Kansas, coupled with grain yields, is useful to estimate yield loss from the disease. Furthermore, linear models that incorporate those parameters can be used to calculate the impact of improving cultivar resistance to BYD on yield losses.

The purpose of this thesis is to investigate further whether oil price has an effect on house price inflation and additionally if it has a link to house price turning points. The methodology is grounded on the previous research paper made by Breitenfellner et al. (2015). The results are based on quarterly data from the countries; Finland, Denmark, Norway and Sweden through the time span of 1990-2018. A linear fixed regression model was performed including the explanatory variables of monetary policy and credit developments, macroeconomic fundamentals, housing market variable and demographic variables. Secondly, a logit model was used to identify a relationship between oil price and house price turning points. The model used misalignment made from GDP per capita and real interest rate. The empirical analysis confirms that there is a positive relationship between oil prices and house price inflation. This evidence contradicts a major share of previous research papers (see Bernanke, 2010; Kaufmann et al., 2011). However, there are also some previous papers (see Yiqi, (2017); Antonakakis et al., 2016) and theoretical linkages in line with a positive correlation. Concerning, the oil price and house price inflation no empirical significance was found regarding their relationship. For future research, one could include regional aspects for the purpose of controlling for geographical differences.

During the last few decades, the Swedish population has shown an increased interest in investment fund savings, and more than 60% of Swedish citizens are saving through funds today. In addition to this, awareness on climate change and related risks has increased, which has contributed to a greater focus on corporate sustainability among Swedish companies. As a result of these trends, there has been an increase in fund companies that are basing their investments on certain ethical restrictions, in order for private investors to save ethically. The purpose of this study was to examine how ethical restrictions affect the financial performance of Swedish funds with regards to risk-adjusted return. Previous studies have focused on comparing ethical and traditional funds, but this study chose not to make any difference between the two types of funds. The study's relevance is based on how it can make private investors aware of which ethical restrictions that have a negative impact on the risk-adjusted return, and how much each restriction decreases the return. A total of 101 Swedish funds were analyzed. Information about each fund's performance measures were retrieved from Morningstar, and is based on three years development. Information about each fund's ethical restrictions were retrieved from Hållbarhetsprofilen and their information pamphlets. With data about the performance measures Sharpe ratio, Alpha, and Treynor ratio, three statistical models were defined and analyzed with multiple linear regression analysis. Each model's reliability was assessed with residual analysis; the models were adjusted and improved if necessary. Hypotheses were evaluated with significance testing to answer the research questions. The results indicate that exclusion of tobacco and gambling companies affect the risk-adjusted return of Swedish funds negatively, while exclusion of alcohol companies affect the risk-adjusted return positively. This implies that private investors should save their money in Swedish funds that exclude alcohol companies in order to avoid lower risk-adjusted return. / Fondsparandet i Sverige har under de senaste decennierna ökat kraftigt och idag sparar över 60% av befolkningen i fonder. Utöver detta har bland annat miljömedvetenheten hos befolkningen ökat, vilket har bidragit till ett ökat engagemang i hållbarhetsfrågor hos företag. I kölvattnet av dessa trender har allt fler svenska fondbolag valt att införa etiska restriktioner på deras investeringar, så att fondsparare på ett enkelt sätt ska kunna investera hållbart. Syftet med denna studie var att undersöka hur etiska restriktioner påverkar svenska fonders prestation med avseende på riskjusterad avkastning. Där tidigare forskning har fokuserat på att jämföra etiska och traditionella fonder, valde denna studie istället att inte göra någon skillnad mellan de två fondtyperna. Studiens relevans baseras på hur studiens slutsatser kan hjälpa småsparare att bli medvetna om vilka etiska restriktioner som hämmar avkastningen och vad varje restriktion kostar investerare i potentiellt förlorad avkastning. Totalt har 101 svenska fonder undersökts. Information som gäller fondernas prestationsmått har hämtats från Morningstar, och baseras på tre års utveckling. Information om fondernas etiska restriktioner har hämtats från Hållbarhetsprofilen och fondernas informationsbroschyrer. Med insamlad data om prestationsmåtten Sharpekvoten, Alfa, och Treynorkvoten, har tre modeller definierats som sedan analyserats med multipel linjär regressionsanalys. Modellernas tillförlitlighet har sedan utvärderats med residualanalys; modellerna förbättrades om det fanns belägg för det. Utifrån signifikanstest har hypoteser utvärderats för att besvara studiens frågeställningar. Studiens resultat pekar på att exkludering av företag inom tobak- och spelbranschen påverkar svenska fonders riskjusterade avkastning negativt, medan exkludering av företag inom alkoholbranschen påverkar den positivt. Detta betyder alltså att småsparare bör investera i svenska fonder som väljer bort företag inom alkoholbranschen för att undvika låg avkastning.

Dans un contexte de mobilité durable, le vélo en libre-service (VLS) représente un élément important dans les politiques de mobilité urbaine pour favoriser les modes doux dans le centre urbain. Son développement rapide dans le monde nécessite des recherches pour mieux comprendre le succès de ce mode de déplacement. Notre contribution à travers cette recherche est d’analyser les éléments socio-économiques importants ainsi que les caractéristiques du système VLS qui influent son usage pour construire des modèles de prédiction de la demande en VLS. Partant de l’hypothèse que les éléments socio-économiques autour des stations de VLS constituent des facteurs qualitativement et quantitativement explicatifs pour l’usage du VLS, notre démarche de recherche repose d’abord sur une analyse statistique, temporelle et spatiale des éléments explicatifs du système VLS pour ensuite les quantifier. Ces éléments sont utilisés pour modéliser la génération de la demande journalière en VLS par la méthode de régression linéaire multiple. Les modèles estimant les flux entrants et sortants journaliers en VLS ont été développés. Ils sont basés sur l’environnement socio-économique autour des stations et des variables d’offre de VLS. Ces modèles sont utiles pour comprendre le fonctionnement du système VLS, l’améliorer et estimer la demande des nouvelles stations dans une perspective d’élargissement d’un système VLS existant. Les modèles développés peuvent être également utilisés pour la localisation et le dimensionnement des stations d’un nouveau système VLS. La démarche de détermination, de quantification des variables explicatives et de modélisation forment un cadre de travail pour modéliser la demande d’autres modes de déplacement partagés. / In a context of sustainable transport, the bike sharing is an important factor in the policies to promote soft modes of transport in the urban center. Its rapid development in the world requires a need to deepen the usage of this mode of travel. Our contribution through this research is to analyze the important built-environment factors and the characteristics of bike sharing system that influence the use of bike sharing in order to build predictive models of demand for bike sharing. Assuming that socio-economic elements around the bike sharing stations are qualitatively and quantitatively explanatory for the use of bike sharing, our approach are based primarily on statistical analysis of temporal and spatial elements explaining bike sharing usage in order to determine and quantify the important built-environment variables. These variables are then used to model the generation of the daily demand of bike sharing using multiple linear regression method. The models estimating inflows and outflows of bike sharing using socioeconomic variables determined in a buffer area of each station are built. These models are useful for estimating the demand for new stations in an enlargement perspective of an existing bike sharing system or location and sizing of a new bike sharing system. The similar process of determination, quantification of the explanatory variables and modelling can be used to form a framework to predict the demand of other vehicle sharing systems.