No description available.

Human T-lymphotropic virus type I (HTLV-I) is a persistent human retrovirus characterized by life-long infection and risk of developing HAM/TSP, a progressive neurological and inflammatory disease. Despite extensive studies of HTLV-I, a complete understanding of the viral dynamics has been elusive. Previous mathematical models are unable to fully explain experimental observations. Motivated by a new hypothesis for the mechanism of HTLV-I infection, a three dimensional compartmental model of ordinary differential equations is constructed that focusses on the highly dynamic interactions among populations of healthy, latently infected, and actively infected target cells. Results from mathematical and numerical investigations give rise to relevant biological interpretations. Comparisons of these results with experimental observations allow us to assess the validity of the original hypothesis. Our findings provide valuable insights to the infection and persistence of HTLV-I in vivo and motivate future mathematical and experimental work. / Applied Mathematics

No description available.

Antibiotic resistant pathogens, such as methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), and vancomycin-resistant enterococci (VRE), are an increasing burden on healthcare systems. Hospital acquired infections with these organisms leads to higher morbidity and mortality compared with the sensitive strains of the same species and both VRE and MRSA are on the rise worldwide including in Australian hospitals. Emerging community infectious diseases are also having an impact on hospitals. The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome virus (SARS Co-V) was noted for its propensity to spread throughout hospitals, and was contained largely through social distancing interventions including hospital isolation. A detailed understanding of the transmission of these and other emerging pathogens is crucial for their containment. The statistical inference and mathematical models used in this thesis aim to improve understanding of pathogen transmission by estimating the transmission rates of contagions and predicting the impact of interventions. Datasets used for these studies come from the Princess Alexandra Hospital in Brisbane, Australia and Shanxi province, mainland China. Epidemiological data on infection outbreaks are challenging to analyse due to the censored nature of infection transmission events. Most datasets record the time on symptom onset, but the transmission time is not observable. There are many ways of managing censored data, in this study we use Bayesian inference, with transmission times incorporated into the augmented dataset as latent variables. Hospital infection surveillance data is often much less detailed that data collected for epidemiological studies, often consisting of serial incidence or prevalence of patient colonisation with a resistant pathogen without individual patient event histories. Despite the lack of detailed data, transmission characteristics can be inferred from such a dataset using structured HiddenMarkovModels (HMMs). Each new transmission in an epidemic increases the infection pressure on those remaining susceptible, hence infection outbreak data are serially dependent. Statistical methods that assume independence of infection events are misleading and prone to over-estimating the impact of infection control interventions. Structured mathematical models that include transmission pressure are essential. Mathematical models can also give insights into the potential impact of interventions. The complex interaction of different infection control strategies, and their likely impact on transmission can be predicted using mathematical models. This dissertation uses modified or novel mathematical models that are specific to the pathogen and dataset being analysed. The first study estimates MRSA transmission in an Intensive Care Unit, using a structured four compartment model, Bayesian inference and a piecewise hazard methods. The model predicts the impact of interventions, such as changes to staff/patient ratios, ward size and decolonisation. A comparison of results of the stochastic and deterministic model is made and reason for differences given. The second study constructs a Hidden Markov Model to describe longitudinal data on weekly VRE prevalence. Transmission is assumed to be either from patient to patient cross-transmission or sporadic (independent of cross-transmission) and parameters for each mode of acquisition are estimated from the data. The third study develops a new model with a compartment representing an environmental reservoir. Parameters for the model are gathered from literature sources and the implications of the environmental reservoir are explored. The fourth study uses a modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model to analyse data from a SARS outbreak in Shanxi province, China. Infectivity is determined before and after interventions as well as separately for hospitalised and community symptomatic SARS cases. Model diagnostics including sensitivity analysis, model comparison and bootstrapping are implemented.

Epidermal wound healing requires the coordinated involvement of complex cellular and biochemical processes. In the case of epidermal wounds associated with burns, the healing process may be less than optimal and may take a significant amount of time, possibly resulting in infection and scarring. An innovative method to assist in the repair of the epidermis (the outer layer of skin) is to use an aerosolised apparatus. This method involves taking skin cells from an area of the patient's undamaged skin, culturing the cells in a laboratory, encouraging them to rapidly proliferate, then harvesting and separating the cells from each other. The cells are then sprayed onto the wound surface. We investigate this novel treatment strategy for the healing of epidermal wounds, such as burns. In particular, we model the application of viable cell colonies to the exposed surface of the wound with the intent of identifying key factors that govern the healing process. Details of the evolution of the colony structure are explored in this two-dimensional model of the wound site, including the effect of varying the initial population cluster size and the initial distribution of cell types with different proliferative capacities. During injury, holoclones (which are thought to be stem cells) have a large proliferative capacity while paraclones (which are thought to be transient amplifying cells) have a more limited proliferative capacity. The model predicts the coverage over time for cells that are initially sprayed onto a wound. A detailed analysis of the underlying mathematical models yields novel mathematical results as well as insight into phenomena of healing processes under investigation. Two one-dimensional systems that are simplifications of the full model are investigated. These models are significant extensions of Fisher's equation and incorporate the mixed clonal population of quiescent and active cells. In the first model, an active cell type migrates and proliferates into the wound and undergoes a transition to a quiescent cell type that neither migrates nor proliferates. The analysis yields the identification of the key parameter constraints on the speed of the healing front of the cells on this model and hence the rate of healing of epidermal wounds. Approximations for the maximum cell densities are also obtained, including conditions for a less than optimal final state. The second model involves two active cell types with different proliferative capacity and a quiescent cell type. This model exhibits two distinct behaviours: either both cell types coexist or one of them dies out as the wound healing progresses leaving the other cell type to fill the wound space. Conditions for coexistence are explored.

Ticks are of global interest as the pathogens they spread can cause diseases that are of importance to both human health and economies. In Scotland, the most populous tick species is the sheep tick Ixodes ricinus, which is the vector of pathogens causing diseases such as Lyme borreliosis and Louping-ill. Recently, both the density and spread of I. ricinus ticks have grown across much of Europe, including Scotland, increasing disease risk. Due to the nature of the tick lifecycle they are particularly dependent on environmental factors, including temperature and habitat type. Because of this, the recent increase in tick-borne disease risk is believed to be linked to climate change. Many mathematical models have been used to explore the interactions between ticks and factors within their environments; this thesis begins by presenting a thorough review of previous modelling of tick and tick-borne pathogen dynamics, identifying current knowledge gaps. The main body of this thesis introduces an original mathematical modelling framework with the aim to further our understanding of the impact of climate change on tick-borne disease risk. This modelling framework takes into account how key environmental factors influence the I. ricinus lifecycle, and is used to create predictions of how I. ricinus density and disease risk will change across Scotland under future climate warming scenarios. These predictions are mapped using Geographical Information System software to give a clear spatial representation of the model predictions. It was found that as temperatures increase, so to do I. ricinus densities, as well as Louping-ill and Lyme borreliosis risk. These results give a strong indication of the disease risk implications of any changes to the Scottish environment, and so have the potential to inform policy-making. Additionally, the models identify areas of possible future research.

This thesis is focused on mathematical modelling of exchange rate CZK/USD in 1991 - 2014. Time series was divided into 5 parts. First Box-Jenkins methodology models were examined, especially ARIMA model. Unfortunately, the model could not be used because none of the time series showed correlation. The time series is considered as a white noise. The data appear to be completely random and unpredictable. The time series have not constant variance neither normal distribution and therefore GARCH volatility model was used as the second model. It is better not to divide time series when using model of volatility. Volatility model contributes to more accurate prediction than the standard deviation. Results were calculated in RStudio software and MS Excel.

137 f. / Submitted by Ana Hilda Fonseca (anahilda@ufba.br) on 2013-04-05T12:52:18Z No. of bitstreams: 1 TESE_Doutorado_Neuza Neves.pdf: 14182671 bytes, checksum: 1dc20a7a01160b563c11a087932580c1 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Ana Hilda Fonseca(anahilda@ufba.br) on 2013-06-07T14:39:03Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 TESE_Doutorado_Neuza Neves.pdf: 14182671 bytes, checksum: 1dc20a7a01160b563c11a087932580c1 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-06-07T14:39:03Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 TESE_Doutorado_Neuza Neves.pdf: 14182671 bytes, checksum: 1dc20a7a01160b563c11a087932580c1 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009 / Ozônio pode afetar a saúde humana sendo a ele atribuída a responsabilidade por centenas de milhares de mortes prematuras a cada ano e por centenas de internações hospitalares adicionais, além da perda de milhões de dias de trabalho. Estes impactos na saúde são causados tanto por exposições a longo prazo (crônica) quanto a curto prazo (aguda). De forma semelhante a que ocorre atualmente próximo às grandes cidades do mundo e aos centros industriais, as concentrações ambientais de ozônio estavam ultrapassando o padrão de qualidade do ar estabelecido no Brasil, nas vizinhanças do Pólo Petroquímico de Camaçari, especialmente durante os anos de 2000 a 2003. Com o objetivo de avaliar a formação e dispersão de ozônio na região do Recôncavo Baiano, foi desenvolvido um estudo, usando modelagem matemática, para melhor compreender as principais fontes dos precursores de ozônio, bem como sua formação e dispersão na referida região. A metodologia adotada no estudo foi a elaboração de um inventário de emissões atmosféricas para as regiões urbanas e industriais e utilização do modelo matemático fotoquímico denominado STEM III – Sulfur Transport and Deposition Model, da Universidade de Iowa (USA), para simular a formação e dispersão deste poluente fotoquímico secundário na atmosfera na região do Recôncavo Baiano. Os resultados do modelo foram comparados com as concentrações medidas por uma rede de monitoramento contínuo da qualidade do ar do Pólo Petroquímico, referente a um período em abril de 2003. Concluiu-se que os resultados calculados para ozônio na região do Recôncavo Baiano, através do modelo matemático STEM são adequados, uma vez que há concordância satisfatória com os dados medidos. Os desvios encontrados ocorreram especificamente durante os episódios com baixas velocidades do vento, quando foram registrados picos de concentrações deste poluente próximo ao Pólo Petroquímico de Camaçari. Os modelos matemáticos meteorológicos não descrevem adequadamente a situação real quando a velocidade do vento é inferior a 1 m/s. ix Os resultados das simulações demonstram que a formação de ozônio ocorre em regiões situadas muito além dos locais onde estão situadas as estações de monitoramento do ar do Pólo, e atinge áreas distantes de Salvador e da região industrial, como Feira de Santana e Santo Estevão, situadas a jusante dos ventos que sopram do quadrante Este, predominantes na região. Todas as concentrações calculadas para ozônio foram inferiores ao limite de 160 µg/m3 estabelecidas pela Resolução CONAMA 003/90, para períodos horários e portanto, não deverão causar impactos na saúde humana. No entanto as concentrações encontradas até cerca de 100 a 150 Km das fontes consideradas podem afetar os ecossistemas pois as concentrações máximas simuladas estão próximas do limite de 40 ppb.h (do inglês:Accumulated Dose Over Threshold of 40 ppb.h - AOT40), na região Oeste e Noroeste do domínio estudado. O regime de formação de ozônio na região de Camaçari e de Candeias é limitado pelo NOx, e as reduções das emissões de NO2 efetuadas pelo Pólo Petroquímico à partir de 2004 resultaram na eliminação das violações dos limites de ozônio na sua região de influência. Considerando-se o atual cenário de desenvolvimento do Brasil, em dez anos as concentrações de ozônio nas áreas costeiras do Recôncavo poderão representar uma ameaça para a produtividade agrícola desenvolvida na região situada no interior da Bahia, e eventualmente poderão representar também uma ameaça para a saúde humana, a depender do aumento das emissões, particularmente veiculares. / Salvador

This thesis is devoted to the study of the dynamics of spiral and scroll waves in a mathematical model for cardiac tissue. We study the effects of the presence of heterogeneities on electrical-wave dynamics. The heterogeneities in the medium occur because of the variation in the electrophysiological properties of the constituent myocytes in the tissue, or because of the presence of cells like fibroblasts and pathological myocytes that can trigger early afterdepolarizations (EADs). We study how these heterogeneities can lead to the formation of spiral and scroll waves and how they can affect the stability of the spiral and scroll waves in cardiac tissue. We also investigate the role of abnormal cells, which can trigger pathological excitations like EADs, on the formation of spiral and scroll waves, and how such cells can trigger premature electrical pulses like premature-ventricular-complexes (PVCs) in cardiac tissue. Earlier studies have examined the role of ionic heterogeneities on spiral-wave initiation and their effects on spiral-wave stability. However, none of these studies has calculated, in a controlled way, the effects of individual ion-channel conductances on spiral- and scroll-wave properties, such as the frequency of these waves, and the effects of the spatial gradients, in each ion-channel conductance, on their stability; we present these results in Chapter 2. Although many studies in the past have studied the effects of fibroblast coupling on wave-dynamics in cardiac tissue, a detailed study of spiral-wave dynamics in a medium with a well-defined, heterogeneous distribution of fibroblasts (e.g., with a gradient in the fibroblast density (GFD)) has not been performed; therefore, in Chapter 3 we present the effects of such GFD on spiral- and scroll-wave dynamics. Then, in Chapter 4, we present a systematic study of how a clump of fibroblasts can lead to spiral waves via high-frequency pacing. Some studies in the past have studied the role of early afterdepolarizations (EADs) in the formation of arrhythmias in cardiac tissue; we build on such studies and present a detailed study of the effects of EADs on the formation of spiral waves and their dynamics, in Chapter 5. Finally, in Chapter 6 we provide the results of our detailed investigation of the factors that assist the triggering of abnormal electrical pulses like premature ventricular complexes by a cluster of EAD-capable cells. A brief summary of the chapters is provided below: Chapter 2: In this chapter we investigate the effects of spatial gradients in the ion-channel conductances of various ionic currents on spiral-and scroll-wave dynamics. Ionic heterogeneities in cardiac tissue arise from spatial variations in the electrophysiological properties of cells in the tissue. Such variations, which are known to be arrhythmogenic, can be induced by diseases like ischemia. It is important, therefore, to understand the effects of such ionic heterogeneities on electrical-wave dynamics in cardiac tissue. To investigate such effects systematically, of changing the ion-channel properties by modifying the conductances of each ionic currents, on the action-potential duration (APD) of a myocyte cell. We then study how these changes in the APD affect the spiral-wave frequency ω in two-dimensional tissue. We also show that changing the ion-channel conductance not only changes ω but also the meandering pattern of the spiral wave. We then study how spatial gradients in the ion-channel conductances affect the spiral-wave stability. We find that the presence of this ionic gradient induces a spatial variation of the local ω, which leads to an anisotropic reduction of the spiral wavelength in the low-ω region and, thereby, leads to a breakup of the spiral wave. We find that the degree of the spiral-wave stability depends on the magnitude of the spatial variation in ω, induced by the gradient in the ion-channel conductances. We observe that ω varies most drastically with the ion-channel conductance of rapid delayed rectifier K+ current GKr, and, hence, a spiral wave is most unstable in the presence of a gradient in GKr (as compared to other ion-channel conductances). By contrast, we find that ω varies least prominently with the conductances of the transient outward K+ current Gto and the fast inward Na+ current (GNa); hence, gradients in these conduc-tances are least likely to lead to spiral-wave breaks. We also investigate scroll-wave instability in an anatomically-realistic human-ventricular heart model with an ionic gradient along the apico-basal direction. Finally, we show that gradients in the ion-channel densities can also lead to spontaneous initiation of spiral waves when we pace the medium at high frequency. Chapter 3: In this chapter we study the effects of gradients in the density of fibroblasts on wave-dynamics in cardiac tissue. The existence of fibroblast-myocyte coupling can modulate electrical-wave dynamics in cardiac tissue. In diseased hearts, the distribution of fibroblasts is heterogeneous, so there can be gradients in the fibroblast density (henceforth we call this GFD) especially from highly injured regions, like infarcted or ischemic zones, to less-wounded regions of the tissue. Fibrotic hearts are known to be prone to arrhythmias, so it is important to understand the effects of GFD in the formation and sustenance of arrhythmic re-entrant waves, like spiral or scroll waves. Therefore, we investigate the effects of GFD on the stability of spiral and scroll waves of electrical activation in a state-of-the-art mathematical model for cardiac tissue in which we also include fibroblasts. By introducing GFD in controlled ways, we show that spiral and scroll waves can be unstable in the presence of GFDs because of regions with varying spiral or scroll-wave frequency ω, induced by the GFD. We examine the effects of the resting membrane potential of the fibroblast and the number of fibroblasts attached to the myocytes on the stability of these waves. Finally, we show that the presence of GFDs can lead to the formation of spiral waves at high-frequency pacing. Chapter 4: In this chapter we study the arrhythmogenic effects of lo-calized fibrobblast clumps. Localized heterogeneities, caused by the regional proliferation of fibroblasts, occur in mammalian hearts because of diseases like myocardial infarction. Such fibroblast clumps can become sources of pathological reentrant activities, e.g., spiral or scroll waves of electrical activation in cardiac tissue. The occurrence of reentry in cardiac tissue with heterogeneities, such as fibroblast clumps, can depend on the frequency at which the medium is paced. Therefore, it is important to study the reentry-initiating potential of such fibroblast clumps at different frequencies of pacing. We investigate the arrhythmogenic effects of fibroblast clumps at high- and low-frequency pacing. We find that reentrant waves are induced in the medium more prominently at high-frequency pacing than with low-frequency pacing. We also study the other factors that affect the potential of fibroblast clumps to induce reentry in cardiac tissue. In particular, we show that the ability of a fibroblast clump to induce reentry depends on the size of the clump, the distribution and percentage of fibroblasts in the clump, and the excitability of the medium. We study the process of reentry in two-dimensional and a three-dimensional mathematical models for cardiac tissue. Chapter 5: In this chapter we investigate the role of early afterdepolarizations (EADs) on the formation of spiral and scroll waves. Early after depolarizations, which are abnormal oscillations of the membrane poten-tial at the plateau phase of an action potential, are implicated in the de-velopment of cardiac arrhythmias like Torsade de Pointes. We carry out extensive numerical simulations of the TP06 and ORd mathematical models for human ventricular cells with EADs. We investigate the different regimes in both these models, namely, the parameter regimes where they exhibit (1) a normal action potential (AP) with no EADs, (2) an AP with EADs, and (3) an AP with EADs that does not go back to the resting potential. We also study the dependence of EADs on the rate of at which we pace a cell, with the specific goal of elucidating EADs that are induced by slow or fast rate pacing. In our simulations in two- and three-dimensional domains, in the presence of EADs, we find the following wave types: (A) waves driven by the fast sodium current and the L-type calcium current (Na-Ca-mediated waves); (B) waves driven only by the L-type calcium current (Ca-mediated waves); (C) phase waves, which are pseudo-travelling waves. Furthermore, we compare the wave patterns of the various wave-types (Na-Ca-mediated, Ca-mediated, and phase waves) in both these models. We find that the two models produce qualitatively similar results in terms of exhibiting Na-Ca- mediated wave patterns that are more chaotic than those for the Ca-mediated and phase waves. However, there are quantitative differences in the wave patterns of each wave type. The Na-Ca-mediated waves in the ORd model show short-lived spirals but the TP06 model does not. The TP06 model supports more Ca-mediated spirals than those in the ORd model, and the TP06 model exhibits more phase-wave patterns than does the ORd model. Chapter 6: In this chapter we study the role of EAD-capable cells, and fibroblasts on the trigerring of abnormal electrical pulses called premature ventricular complexes (PVCs). Premature ventricular complexes, which are abnormal impulse propagations in cardiac tissue, can develop because of various reasons including early afterdepolarizations (EADs). We show how a cluster of EAD-generating cells (EAD clump) can lead to PVCs in a model of cardiac tissue, and also investigate the factors that assist such clumps in triggering PVCs. In particular, we study, through computer simulations, the effects of the following factors on the PVC-triggering ability of an EAD clump: (1) the repolarization reserve (RR) of the EAD cells; (2) the size of the EAD clump; (3) the coupling strength between the EAD cells in the clump; and (4) the presence of fibroblasts in the EAD clump. We find that, although a low value of RR is necessary to generate EADs and hence PVCs, a very low value of RR leads to low-amplitude EAD oscillations that decay with time and do not lead to PVCs. We demonstrate that a certain threshold size of the EAD clump, or a reduction in the coupling strength between the EAD cells, in the clump, is required to trigger PVCs. We illustrate how randomly distributed inexcitable obstacles, which we use to model collagen deposits, affect PVC-triggering by an EAD clump. We show that the gap-junctional coupling of fibroblasts with myocytes can either assist or impede the PVC-triggering ability of an EAD clump, depending on the resting membrane potential of the fibroblasts and the coupling strength between the myocyte and fibroblasts. We also find that the triggering of PVCs by an EAD clump depends sensitively on factors like the pacing cycle length and the distribution pattern of the fibroblasts.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-12-01T19:18:45Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Cap 4 a final.pdf: 3091662 bytes, checksum: f1549a93eaba7f63b23ee2538eabf90a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008-03-17 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / This dissertation discuss the level of services delivered by local governments in the digital economy. The work is based on the Information Society context and with an analytical framework to understand the emergence of what is often referred to as a digital economy. The Internet based services has inspired several business in many fields of economic and social life, now it is expected to bring a new life to the government sector. The underlying subject to the theme is to structuring a conceptual and mathematical model to accomplish the evaluation of local governments' portals in Brazil. For that it was lifted up which indicators were significant or not, based in several scientific methodologies. To classify Brazilians local governments in accordance with the services supplied through Internet it was realized a research with the top ranked specialists in electronic government according to the Ministério da Ciência e Tecnologia (Brazilian Scientific Bureau of Technology). It was also attempted an analisys uppon others existent models that in some way already evaluate electronic government's services in the world and in Brazil. With the research findings it was established a criteria and developed the conceptual and mathematical models. With the model's proposal it was deployed a simulation that presented consistent results. It was developed an implementation proposal to the model in technological and managerial terms, structured as a virtual organization using a set of technological tools. The work, at last, proposes a series of recommendations related to the application building process of the proposed model / O presente trabalho aborda o nível de serviços disponibilizados pelos governos locais na economia digital, ou seja, por meio da Internet. A respeito deste tema a questão colocada consiste em como estruturar um modelo conceitual e matemático para realizar a avaliação de portais de governos municipais no Brasil. Com este objetivo foram levantados quais indicadores seriam significativos ou não, com base em diversas metodologias. Para classificar os governos municipais de acordo com os serviços fornecidos por meio da Internet foram pesquisados modelos já existentes que de alguma forma avaliam os serviços de governo eletrônico atualmente, no mundo e no Brasil. Com os resultados das pesquisas foram estabelecidos os critérios e desenvolvidos os modelos conceituais e matemáticos. Com a proposta de modelo pronta realizou-se uma simulação que apresentou resultados consistentes. Em seguida apresentou-se uma proposta de operacionalização do modelo tanto em termos tecnológicos quanto em termos de gestão, em forma de organização virtual. O trabalho encerra com um conjunto de recomendações relacionadas à aplicação do modelo aqui proposto