Residential property price premia (‘premia’) have long fascinated investors, particularly in times of euphoria, but their social, climatic and urban ramifications are much wider. A proper understanding of premia is hindered by the variety of exogenous influences determining them. They occur within idiosyncratic, complex, and continuously reconfiguring metropoli, conditioned by topography, history, regime, commerce, and culture. Given imperfectly competitive housing markets, conventional explanations for premia are either restricted to their financial dissection, trawl though metrics or cast around for hedonic coefficients. However, premia illuminate affordability and other problems in the broader planning and social debate. With the general significance of premia clarified, the research question of the project becomes: ‘What drives residential property price premium evolution in a metropolis?’ A complete answer involves dissecting the nature and establishing the location of putative premia and disentangling the influence and interactions of their various price drivers. To provide it, the project conducts a property and urban literature review. Based on theory’s insight that higher order contains lower order systems, it develops and investigates a general systems model of residential premia with two modes. The system is conditioned by ideology but forced by population and capital inflows. Within it, premia mutate, influenced by a nested hierarchy of more or less contaminated information. To investigate the model and its different modes, the project employs tests across system pointers, at the macro, meso (all urban) and micro spatial resolutions. First, the turbulence and permeability of residential property markets to exogenous influences is assessed. The project then looks at the urban mosaic in the growing Sunbelt migration city of Brisbane, Australia, over the boom period from 1998-2004. Locally, it conducts a case study and survey in one micro-location, seeking clues in transaction patterns (output), property system agents (components) and the information they use (feedback mechanisms). Finally, the project draws some relevant policy implications. Its key findings are that urban housing markets are open, complex and polarised. In an exuberant economic climate, migration and debt fuel metropolitan price escalation. Public urban initiatives reinforce central incumbent affluence or spark fresh bouts of speculation. Individual premia are heterogeneous but often feed off local construction projects or iconic refurbishment. Reflecting their demographics and motives, agent risk appetites are diverse although investors are usually less averse to renewal. System feedback involves a congruence of media and local activity signals. Neither local conviviality nor Bohemian influences are, by themselves, significant. Rather, buyer rationality is validated by post-purchase infrastructure completions. The thesis of this project is, hence, that in euphoric capital markets, migration and debt accelerates the endogenous mutation of property from homes within a community towards speculative paper assets. The implication is that the excessive proliferation of premia indicates economic imbalance and urban malaise which requires recognition and treatment. While premia are paid for perceived privilege or prospects, cognitive risk representations and expectations evolve. Sometimes judgment is contaminated by media fantasy but often validated by accommodating government policy and central revitalisation projects. Yet, within a wider social and ecological remit, rampant premia suggest flaws in urban strategy, governance and planning practice. In terms of windfall events or unearned rent, the cumulative effects of ill-considered projects and price distortions can be ugly and wasteful. They alienate and accentuate spatial privilege without generating sustainable jobs. The project has procedural and substantive policy implications. The dynamics of residential premia cannot be disentangled from capital market volatility, urban fragmentation and reconstitution. Enlightened property development requires visionary urban planning beyond electoral cycles. Rather than unregulated markets or disjointed incrementalism, the project points to the advantages of cohesive projects and inclusive hubs. It impels ecological and people-focused development to nurture capable, connected and considerate edge communities. Its first steps are theoretical recognition, policy clarification, government reform, market constraints, price and tax rationalisation and spatial transparency.

La ville s’est toujours imposée comme un sujet central de la littérature, et en particulier de l’écriture romanesque. La seconde moitié du XXe siècle coïncide avec l’avènement d’un tournant – baptisé Spatial Turn par la critique postmoderne – qui a fait de l’espace, particulièrement de l’espace urbain, un objet analytique de prédilection pour les penseurs et les théoriciens, y compris littéraires. Jean Echenoz, Orhan Pamuk et Paul Auster sont contemporains de cette époque au cours de laquelle le roman de la ville a connu un nouvel épanouissement. Ces trois auteurs, ont placé respectivement Paris, Istanbul et New York au coeur de leur écriture, marquée par une vision postmoderne qui interroge l’existant. Notre recherche correspond à l’étude de la représentation romanesque de ces métropoles dans l’oeuvre de ces trois auteurs. À l’aune des approches théoriques contemporaines de l’espace, notamment la géocritique, nous abordons la manière dont l’écriture romanesque de ces trois romanciers prend en charge l’image de la ville. En questionnant particulièrement le rapport individu-ville, notre travail cherche à définir comment la représentation romanesque de la ville est affectée par la perception d’un observateur. Aussi, nous nous demandons comment ce dernier, issu d’une époque où l’incertitude ontologique est la seule certitude, projette sa crise identitaire sur le paysage urbain que dessine le roman. La remise en question de l’utopie de la ville moderne mondialisée, constitue un axe autour duquel nous proposons d’étudier les tableaux faits de Paris, d’Istanbul et de New York dans les fictions postmodernes : Au Piano d’Echenoz, Le Livre noir de Pamuk et Cité de verre d’Auster. / Towns and cities have always taken a central role in literature, and particularly in fiction (novels). The latter half of the 20th century was a turning point, named the Spatial Turn by postmodern critics, whereby space, and particularly urban space, became a favourite object of analysis for thinkers and theorists, including the literary. Jean Echenoz, Orhan Pamuk and Paul Auster are contemporaries of this period, during which the urban novel flourished. These three authors respectively placed Paris, Istanbul and New York at the heart of their writing which was coloured by a postmodern outlook and a questioning of the present. Our study is that of the fictional representation of these metropolises in the works of these three authors. In the light of the contemporary theoretical perspectives of space, and particularly geocriticism, we will study the way in which the writing of these authors takes on board the urban image. By surveying the person-city relationship in particular, our work will strive to define how the fictional representation of a city is affected by the perception of an observer. We will also ask ourselves how this observer, product of an era when ontological uncertainty was the only certainty, projects his identity crisis onto the urban scene drawn by the novel. The reassessment of the global city utopia constitutes an axis around which we propose to study the picture drawn of Paris, Istanbul and New York in the postmodern fictions : Piano by Echenoz, The Black Book by Pamuk and City of Glass by Auster.

Le développement du trafic aérien international est une composante majeure de la croissance des échanges internationaux intervenue depuis la seconde guerre mondiale. La traduction terrestre en est le développement des plateformes aéroportuaires. Avec les dérégulations intervenues dans les années 1990 les hubs sont des éléments majeurs de l’espace européen. Ils ont généré des territoires aéroportuaires allant au-delà des limites administratives et domaniales des aéroports ; ceux-ci sont des espaces importants de l’économie de la connaissance et de l’innovation. A ce titre, ils sont des polarités métropolitaines majeures. Nous en avons choisi trois majeures situées sur deux continents : Paris- Charles de Gaulle, Amsterdam- Schiphol et Seoul- Incheon. En raison de leur accessibilité multimodale synchrone, ces aéroports sont parties prenantes de territoires aéroportuaires importants et multifonctionnels. Ils participent sous de formes et des degrés divers à l’économie de la connaissance et de l’innovation et en particulier à ses circulations. / The development of international air traffic is a major component of the international exchanges occurred since the Second World War. The terrestrial translation is the development of airport. With the deregulations occurred in the years the 1990, hubs are major elements of European space. They generated airport territories going beyond the administrative and domanial limits of the airports; those are important spaces of the knowledge and innovation economy. For this reason, they are major metropolitan polarities. We chose three major located out of two continents: Paris Charles de Gaulle, Amsterdam Schiphol and Seoul Incheon... Because of their synchronous multimode accessibility, these airports are recipients of important and multipurpose airport territories. They take part in various forms and degrees in the knowledge and innovation economy and in particular in its circulations

De nos jours, parler de monumentalité soulève des questions pour le moins problématiques. Selon des interprétations négatives, cette notion est fruit d’une pensée rétrograde, fondée sur l’historicisme et sur une lecture de l’architecture comme une question de style. A contrario, la monumentalité représente, à l’origine, la qualité immatérielle qui permet au monument d’émerger de son contexte et d’être reconnu comme élément structurant de l’espace urbain. Cette qualité joue un rôle capital au sein de la métropole puisqu’elle s’oppose à une logique de l’architecture basée sur l’économie et qu’elle éveille la conscience collective à la fonction mémorielle du monument et à sa symbolique d’avertissement pour la société. La consultation internationale du Grand Paris (CIGP) a été une vitrine internationale considérable qui a donné aux équipes pluridisciplinaires participantes la possibilité de définir les paramètres fondateurs pour le développement de la métropole du XXIème siècle de l’après-Kyoto. À la demande des décideurs politiques, les équipes de la CIGP ont engagé un questionnement sur la manière de matérialiser les symboles fédérateurs de la société contemporaine. S’agirait-il d’un renouveau de la monumentalité ? Comment faire coexister ce questionnement face aux principes du développement durable ? Serions-nous confrontés à une nouvelle forme de monumentalité émergente ? Cette recherche a l’ambition de présenter la récursivité de l’histoire transformant la notion de monumentalité et d’apporter quelques éléments de réponse concernant la possible émergence d’une nouvelle monumentalité métropolitaine / Talking about monumentality in contemporary times has become at least a problematic issue. This notion most often refers to negative interpretations identifying it as the fruit of retrograde thinking, based on historicism and in reading architecture as a question of style. On the contrary, monumentality originally represents the immaterial quality that allows the monument to stand up from its context and to be recognized as a structuring element of the urban. Faced with the metropolis, this quality plays a capital role by opposing the logic of architecture based on economics and by awakening the collective conscience to the monument’s memorial function and its symbolic warning for society. The Greater Paris International Consultation (CIGP) was a considerable international showcase that gave to its multidisciplinary teams the opportunity to define the founding parameters for the development of post-Kyoto metropolis for the 21st century. As asked by politicians, the CIGP teams started to question how to materialise the unifying symbols of contemporary society. Would it be a renewal of monumentality? How can this questioning coexist facing the principles of sustainability? Would we be faced to a new form of emergent monumentality? The aim of this research is to present the historical appeals that have transformed the notion of monumentality and to provide some answers regarding the possible emergence of a new metropolitan monumentality

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are a widely applicable class of algorithms for estimating integrals in statistical inference problems. A common approach in MCMC methods is to introduce additional auxiliary variables into the Markov chain state and perform transitions in the joint space of target and auxiliary variables. In this thesis we consider novel methods for using auxiliary variables within MCMC methods to allow approximate inference in otherwise intractable models and to improve sampling performance in models exhibiting challenging properties such as multimodality. We first consider the pseudo-marginal framework. This extends the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm to cases where we only have access to an unbiased estimator of the density of target distribution. The resulting chains can sometimes show ‘sticking’ behaviour where long series of proposed updates are rejected. Further the algorithms can be difficult to tune and it is not immediately clear how to generalise the approach to alternative transition operators. We show that if the auxiliary variables used in the density estimator are included in the chain state it is possible to use new transition operators such as those based on slice-sampling algorithms within a pseudo-marginal setting. This auxiliary pseudo-marginal approach leads to easier to tune methods and is often able to improve sampling efficiency over existing approaches. As a second contribution we consider inference in probabilistic models defined via a generative process with the probability density of the outputs of this process only implicitly defined. The approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) framework allows inference in such models when conditioning on the values of observed model variables by making the approximation that generated observed variables are ‘close’ rather than exactly equal to observed data. Although making the inference problem more tractable, the approximation error introduced in ABC methods can be difficult to quantify and standard algorithms tend to perform poorly when conditioning on high dimensional observations. This often requires further approximation by reducing the observations to lower dimensional summary statistics. We show how including all of the random variables used in generating model outputs as auxiliary variables in a Markov chain state can allow the use of more efficient and robust MCMC methods such as slice sampling and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) within an ABC framework. In some cases this can allow inference when conditioning on the full set of observed values when standard ABC methods require reduction to lower dimensional summaries for tractability. Further we introduce a novel constrained HMC method for performing inference in a restricted class of differentiable generative models which allows conditioning the generated observed variables to be arbitrarily close to observed data while maintaining computational tractability. As a final topicwe consider the use of an auxiliary temperature variable in MCMC methods to improve exploration of multimodal target densities and allow estimation of normalising constants. Existing approaches such as simulated tempering and annealed importance sampling use temperature variables which take on only a discrete set of values. The performance of these methods can be sensitive to the number and spacing of the temperature values used, and the discrete nature of the temperature variable prevents the use of gradient-based methods such as HMC to update the temperature alongside the target variables. We introduce new MCMC methods which instead use a continuous temperature variable. This both removes the need to tune the choice of discrete temperature values and allows the temperature variable to be updated jointly with the target variables within a HMC method.

Bayesian modelling, in which our prior belief about the distribution on model parameters is updated by observed data, is a popular approach to statistical data analysis. However, writing specific inference algorithms for Bayesian models by hand is time-consuming and requires significant machine learning expertise. Probabilistic programming promises to make Bayesian modelling easier and more accessible by letting the user express a generative model as a short computer program (with random variables), leaving inference to the generic algorithm provided by the compiler of the given language. However, it is not easy to design a probabilistic programming language correctly and define the meaning of programs expressible in it. Moreover, the inference algorithms used by probabilistic programming systems usually lack formal correctness proofs and bugs have been found in some of them, which limits the confidence one can have in the results they return. In this work, we apply ideas from the areas of programming language theory and statistics to show that probabilistic programming can be a reliable tool for Bayesian inference. The first part of this dissertation concerns the design, semantics and type system of a new, substantially enhanced version of the Tabular language. Tabular is a schema-based probabilistic language, which means that instead of writing a full program, the user only has to annotate the columns of a schema with expressions generating corresponding values. By adopting this paradigm, Tabular aims to be user-friendly, but this unusual design also makes it harder to define the syntax and semantics correctly and reason about the language. We define the syntax of a version of Tabular extended with user-defined functions and pseudo-deterministic queries, design a dependent type system for this language and endow it with a precise semantics. We also extend Tabular with a concise formula notation for hierarchical linear regressions, define the type system of this extended language and show how to reduce it to pure Tabular. In the second part of this dissertation, we present the first correctness proof for a Metropolis-Hastings sampling algorithm for a higher-order probabilistic language. We define a measure-theoretic semantics of the language by means of an operationally-defined density function on program traces (sequences of random variables) and a map from traces to program outputs. We then show that the distribution of samples returned by our algorithm (a variant of “Trace MCMC” used by the Church language) matches the program semantics in the limit.

Este estudo busca compreender os processos de produção do espaço em Gravataí, município situado na Região Metropolitana de Porto Alegre, e as formas urbano-industriais resultantes desses processos. Para tanto, foram delimitados dois momentos. O primeiro se refere aos processos que atuaram propiciando a transformação de sua economia agrícola em economia industrial, e, o segundo, aos processos atuais de reordenamento do capital internacional que possibilitam a inclusão de novos locais como pontos estratégicos na sua organização. As transformações resultantes da atuação destes processos são relacionadas com modificações estruturadas a partir da capital metropolitana, o que possibilitou a inclusão de seus municípios limítrofes em novas lógicas de ordenamento espacial, ainda que de forma diferenciada. Com essas premissas foram identificadas e diferenciadas, no município, formas urbano-industriais quanto à origem e às lógicas de produção espacial que atuam e atuaram na estruturação do contexto metropolitano. / This study is aimed at understanding the processes of space production in Gravatai - a city in the Metropolitan Area of Porto Alegre - as well as revealing the industrial-urban forms resulting from such processes. In order to do so, two periods were considered: the first refers to the processes that enabled the transformation of its farming-based economy into an industrial form of production; the second one refers to the current processes of reorganization of the international capital that enable the inclusion of new places as strategical points in its organization.. The transformations resulting from the impingement of these processes are related to the changes the capital city of Porto Alegre has gone through, which, in turn, enable the inclusion of the bordering counties within the new forms of spatial organization in distinct ways. According to such premises, diverse industrial-urban forms were identified and individualized, regarding their origin and the logics of spatial production that took part in the structuring of the metropolitan context.

Alep est la seconde grande ville de la Syrie. Elle connaît actuellement un processus d'extension de son influence urbaine et économique. Ses « marges vécues » ne cessent de s'agrandir, tandis que la réaction publique et politique se fait plus lentement pour répondre aux besoins criants en termes de logemen t, de transport, de fourniture de services publics. Ce travail vise à partir du cas d'Alep à définir le processus de métropolisation et à comprendre qu'une agglomération ne devient métropole que si une combinaison de facteurs sont remplis. Il ne s'agit pas seulement d'éléments quantifiables mais aussi de composantes qualitatives. Plus encore, une métropole ne peut s'affirmer comme telle sans une réelle implication politique des parties prenantes et la mise autour de la table de l'ensemble des acteurs à cette construction urbaine.Toutes ces questions sont abordées et mises en parallèle avec le processus métropolitain lyonnais. En Syrie, malgré les efforts consentis ces dernières années en matière d'ouverture balbutiante de la décision publique, la volonté de diversifier l'économie et de l'internationaliser progressivement, l'enjeu métropolitain reste difficile. D'une part parce que les lois ne sont pas adaptées et qu'elles portent la marque d'un Etat centralisé. D'autre part parce que les acteurs impliqués dans la gestion de la cité à ces différentes échelles travaillent rarement de manière partenariale. En outre, il est à noter un manque de recherche, un déficit de données démographiques, sociales et économiques, qui seraient pourtant nécessaires pour mettre en place une planification stratégique de la métropole en puissance qu'est Alep. Des changements se font jour actuellement dans la pensée des politiques et des aménageurs en Syrie ; progressivement plus de pouvoirs sont octroyés aux collectivités locales. Mais un véritable diagnostic de la situation, ainsi qu'une réflexion sur les outils à mettre en place, sont d'une grande importance pour le futur d'Alep / Aleppo is the second biggest cities of Syria and its urban and economic influence is growing in the North of the country and even abroad. Its limits as they are defined by human activities are constantly increasing. But the public and politic reaction is slower than these informal processes and unable to tackle the problems of public transport, accommodation, public services. From the case of Aleppo, this doctoral research aims at defining the process of metropolis building and at explaining that an agglomeration can't become a metropolis without meeting a combination of quantitative and qualitative factors. Moreover a metropolis needs a real involvement of political stakeholders and the partnership of the different actors, who take part to this urban concentration and dynamic. We will deal with these questions of uncompleted metropolization in comparing with the metropolitan process of Lyon (France). In Syria, although some political efforts have been granted to open the decision process, to vary and step by step to internationalize the national economy, the challenge to recognize and strengthen metropolis is very difficult. On the first hand, the national legislation isn't suited to these urban and strategic questions. The Syrian state is centralized and doesn't allow the local governments to develop ad hoc solutions. On the other hand the stakeholders involved in the city management at different scales don't work together. Besides, the lack of academic research and the gaps of demographic, social and economic data prevent local politicians and administrators from strategically planning the development of the city.As the political minds and urban planners' practice are progressively evolving and more and more competences are given to cities, Aleppo's running requires at first a diagnosis of the social, economic and urban situation to be able to create useful tools and implement efficient policies

Les villes africaines croissent en population d’au moins 5% l’an et dépassent fréquemment 7% l’an. Or, lorsqu’une ville croît au taux de 7% annuellement, elle double sa population tous les dix ans. Cela signifie qu’il faudrait doubler la capacité des infrastructures et des équipements. Les pays en développement n’ont pas la capacité financière pour y faire face. D’où, entre autres problèmes, ceux de la dégradation des équipements, de l’environnement et des quartiers précaires. Comment planifier de telles agglomérations ? L’analyse des villes d’Abidjan, Lomé, Ouagadougou à travers leurs documents de planification, nous renseigne sur les pratiques utilisées. La ville de Bangui sert de cas d’étude approfondi à notre démarche. Planifier, c’est articuler les enjeux stratégiques à l’agir local Il faut donc relier les documents d’urbanisme et les documents complémentaires (schéma de drainage, commercial, de transport…). / Cities in Africa often grow in population develop at the rate of 5% yearly and sometimes go beyond 7%. When a city grows at the rate of 7% per year, its population doubles every ten years. This means that the capacities of infrastructures and equipments should be doubled. But developing countries do not have the financial capacities to stand it. As a result, there are many problems among which the degradation of equipments, the environment and precarious areas. How to plan such cities? After a study of large cities such as Abidjan, Lomé, Ouagadougou and their planning documents methods used, Bangui is chosen as the main site of the research. To plan is to articulate strategic stakes to local practices. This involves to link planning documents to other sectoral documents (for sewage, retail trade, transports…).

Esta tese tem como objetivo principal a proposição de solução para o problema do encaixe de moldes em tecidos listrados da indústria do vestuário. Os moldes são peças com formato irregular que devem ser dispostos sobre a matéria-prima, neste caso o tecido, para a etapa posterior de corte. No problema específico do encaixe em tecidos listrados, o local em que os moldes são posicionados no tecido deve garantir que, após a confecção da peça, as listras apresentem continuidade. Assim, a fundamentação teórica do trabalho abrange temas relacionados à moda e ao design do vestuário, como os tipos e padronagens de tecidos listrados, e as possibilidades de rotação e colocação dos moldes sobre tecidos listrados. Na fundamentação teórica também são abordados temas da pesquisa em otimização combinatória como: características dos problemas bidimensionais de corte e encaixe e algoritmos utilizados por diversos autores para solucionar o problema. Ainda na parte final da fundamentação teórica são descritos o método Cadeia de Markov Monte Carlo e o algoritmo de Metropolis-Hastings. Com base na pesquisa bibliográfica, foram propostos dois algoritmos distintos para lidar com o problema de encaixe de moldes em tecidos listrados: algoritmo com pré-processamento e algoritmo de busca do melhor encaixe utilizando o algoritmo de Metropolis-Hastings. Ambos foram implementados no software Riscare Listrado, que é uma continuidade do software Riscare para tecidos lisos desenvolvido em Alves (2010). Para testar o desempenho dos dois algoritmos foram utilizados seis problemas benchmarks da literatura e proposto um novo problema denominado de camisa masculina. Os problemas benchmarks da literatura foram propostos para matéria-prima lisa e o problema camisa masculina especificamente para tecidos listrados. Entre os dois algoritmos desenvolvidos, o algoritmo de busca do melhor encaixe apresentou resultados com melhores eficiências de utilização do tecido para todos os problemas propostos. Quando comparado aos melhores resultados publicados na literatura para matéria-prima lisa, o algoritmo de busca do melhor encaixe apresentou encaixes com eficiências inferiores, porém com resultados superiores ao recomendado pela literatura específica da área de moda para tecidos estampados. / This thesis proposes the solution for the packing problem of patterns on striped fabric in clothing industry. The patterns are pieces with irregular form that should be placed on raw material which is, in this case, the fabric. This fabric is cut after packing. In the specific problem of packing on striped fabric, the position that patterns are put in the fabric should ensure that, after the clothing sewing, the stripes should present continuity. Thus, the theoretical foundation of this project includes subjects about fashion and clothing design, such as types and rapports of striped fabric, and the possibilities of rotation and the correct place to put the patterns on striped fabric. In the theoretical foundation, there are also subjects about research in combinatorial optimization as: characteristics about bi-dimensional packing and cutting problems and algorithms used for several authors to solve the problem. In addition, the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method and the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm are described at end of theoretical foundation. Based on the bibliographic research, two different algorithms for the packing problem with striped fabric are proposed: algorithm with pre-processing step and algorithm of searching the best packing using the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. Both algorithms are implemented in the Striped Riscare software, which is a continuity of Riscare software for clear fabrics developed in the Masters degree of the author. Both algorithms performances are tested with six literature benchmark problems and a new problem called “male shirt” is proposed here. The benchmark problems of literature were iniatially proposed for clear raw material and the male shirt problem, specifically for striped fabrics. Between the two developed algorithms, the algorithm of searching the best packing has shown better results with better efficiencies of the fabric usage for all the problems tested. When compared to the best results published in the literature for clear raw material, the algorithm of searching the best packing has shown packings with lower efficiencies. However, it showed results higher than recommended for the specific literature of fashion design for patterned fabrics.