This thesis focuses on analysis of the importance of electorate expectations for voter behavior in mid-term elections. We will modify the traditional Alesina-Rosenthal model to include electorate expectations. Using this new model, we will show that Obama's loss in the 2010 mid-term elections was caused by high electorate expectations which were created during the campaign for Presidency in 2008. With the help of our framework, we will demonstrate that electorate expectations played a crucial role in several historical mid-term elections.

For years Arkansas voted for Republicans in blue. From post-Reconstruction to industrialization and civil rights, Arkansas maintained a conservative ideology while aligning itself with the Democratic Party. In the late 20th century, the South shifted to the right, but the Natural State stayed loyal to the left and its traditional voting tactics. It would not be until the 21st century that Arkansans would recognize that the national Democratic Party did not represent their views. By the 2014 midterm elections, Arkansas’s long time conservatism, newly developed industry and demographic changes coalesced into a partisan change. Arkansas embraced red.

This thesis provides a comprehensive analysis of midterm U.S. House elections using a multi-level research design. At the aggregate-level, multiple regression analysis is used to examine the variables that affect seat loss for the president’s party. This integrates, updates and extends the extant literature of the topic, and offers a means of explaining and predicting seat losses by the president’s party in the U.S. House. To further probe the findings at the aggregatelevel, the thesis develops a pooled cross-sectional model of individual-level vote choice in midterm U.S. House elections using data from the American National Election Studies (1982- 2002) and the Cooperative Congressional Election Study for the 2006 and 2010 midterm elections. Findings suggest that variables measuring the performance of the economy and realignment of the South toward the Republican Party affect seat loss at the aggregate level. However, at the individual level, economic evaluations exerted little influence on vote choice, above and beyond party identification, although perceptions of the national economy did appear to influence vote choice in the 2006 and 2010 elections. Future research might incorporate the strategic politician thesis into the explanatory scheme and move the analysis to elections for other political offices, such as U.S. Senate elections as well as state legislative and gubernatorial elections.

The thesis aims to discuss a theoretical framework of the U. S. congressional midterm elections and specify their fundamental funtions and importance. The thesis analyses the transformation of midterm elections as well as their effects on the political system with a special focus on the period 1990-2008. Following the analysis of particular midterm elections, it concludes that some of the theoretical premises need to be revised.

１．主題說明 財務報導的目在協助使用者擬定明智的決策。隨著社會、經濟環境的變遷，使用者對 資訊的需冬日切，鑑於資的時效性，期中財務報導的地位愈形重要。本論文的研究目 的，即針對期中財務報表的預測功能及其相關問題，作一探詩。 ２．研究方法 本研究於實證方面，採郵寄問卷的方式，受試者有證券投資分析人員、財務經理，及 銀行經理等。由受試者分析問卷所列的公司財務報表資料後，預測其稅前純益。實證 目的在驗證：（１）提供期中財務報表（分別為一季、二季、三季）與僅提供年報， 在預測當年度稅前純益的準確度上，有無顯著差異；（２）提供期中財務報表與僅提 供年報，在預測次年度同季稅前純益的準確度上，有無顯著差異。 ３．結果 實證分析結果顯示：不論在預測當年度稅前純益或次年度同季稅前純益時提供期中財 務報表與提供年報，在預測的準確度上，皆有顯著差異。

There has been much scholarly attention directed at the Iraq war's role in determining voter choice. I attempt to extend that research into voter turnout to determine what role the Iraq war played in 2006 voter turnout. This paper argues that turnout at the state level could be explained by the number of US deaths each state had sustained from the Iraq occupation at the time of the election. A theory of voter activation based on information availability is put forth to explain the relationship between national events and voter turnout wherein national events like the Iraq war will raise the amount of information voters have at their disposal, which will increase the likelihood of their voting on election day. Regression analysis comparing the turnout rates of the 50 states to their casualties in Iraq revealed no relationship between the two factors, indicating that something else is responsible for the high turnout of the midterm.

In der Hüftendoprothetik finden gewebeschonende Zugangswege, sogenannte minimal-invasive Zugänge, zunehmend häufiger Anwendung. Die postulierten Vorteile beziehen sich hierbei vor allem auf eine bessere Frühmobilisation durch geringeres Schmerzerleben bei besserer Gelenksfunktionalität. Diese initial prospektiv randomisiert angelegte Studie ging der Frage nach, ob zwischen zwei minimal-invasiven und einem konventionellen Zugangsweg zur Hüftgelenkstotalendoprothesen-Implantation Unterschiede hinsichtlich Algofunktion, Lebensqualität, Patientenzufriedenheit und Funktionsparametern über einen mittelfristigen Beobachtungszeitraum bestehen. Als minimal-invasive Varianten kamen ein modifizierter anteriorer und ein modifizierter anterolateraler Zugang zum Einsatz, den konventionellen Zugangsweg stellte der transgluteale nach Bauer dar. Hierzu wurden bei 147 Patienten 154 Operationen mit fortlaufender 1:1:1 Randomisierung durchgeführt. Die mittelfristige Datenerhebung schloss 103 Patienten mit 109 Hüftgelenkstotalendoprothesen in der Studiensprechstunde und weitere 16 per Briefbefragung ein. Die Algofunktion wurde primär anhand des HHS ermittelt und um den WOMAC-Arthroseindex sowie den UCLA-Score ergänzt. Der EuroQol-Fragebogen wurde zur Erhebung der Lebensqualität eingesetzt und um eine numerisch analoge Zufriedenheitsskala erweitert. Die Funktionsprüfung erfolgte durch eine apparative Messung der 25-MeterGeh- und 5-Stufen-Steigezeit. Unabhängig vom gewählten Zugangsweg zeigten die Ergebnisse dieser Studie in sämtlichen untersuchten Dimensionen eine signifikante Besserung des Ausgangszustandes nach einem Beobachtungszeitraum von mindestens sieben Jahren. Es ließen sich dabei keine signifikanten Unterschiede hinsichtlich Algofunktion, Lebensqualität und Funktionsparametern zwischen den einzelnen Zugangswegen feststellen. Die Medianwerte der Patientenzufriedenheit waren in allen Gruppen vergleichbar, lediglich die Anzahl an statistischen Ausreißern und solchen, die die Frage nach einer hypothetischen Wiederholung der Operation verneinten, zeigten einen signifikanten Unterschied zu Ungunsten des konventionellen Zugangs. Vorteile der minimal-invasiven Techniken über die in der Literatur genannte frührehabilitative Phase hinaus konnten in unserer Beobachtung nicht gezeigt werden. Eine klare Empfehlung für oder gegen einen bestimmten Zugangsweg kann von unserer Seite aus nicht gegeben werden, besonders, da der anteriore Zugang durch eine deutlich erhöhte Revisionsrate nur eingeschränkt beurteilbar ist. / In hip arthroplasty, tissue sparing approaches, so-called minimally invasive approaches, are increasingly used. The estimated benefits are concentrated on more successful early mobilisation due to less sensation of pain and better functionality of the joint. The aim of this initially prospective and randomized designed trial was to identify differences between two minimally invasive and one conventional approach for total hip arthroplasty regarding algofunctional outcome, quality of life, satisfaction as well as functional parameters in a midterm follow-up. We compared the two minimally invasive modified anterior and anterolateral approaches with the conventional transgluteal Bauer approach. A total of 154 hip joints of 147 patients were included and randomized to the three approaches in a 1:1:1 fashion. The midterm follow-up included 103 patients examined in the outpatient clinic with an overall 109 total hip arthroplasties as well as evaluation of 16 patients by a letter survey. The algofunctional outcome was assessed by the Harris Hip Score, the WOMAC Osteoarthritis Index and the UCLA Score. To measure the quality of life we chose the EuroQol questionnaire and added a numeric analogue scale to quantify the patients’ satisfaction. Further functional data was produced by instrument-based evaluation of the 25 meters gait velocity and five stairs climbing speed tests. After a mean follow-up of 7 years this study showed significant benefits in every controlled dimension compared to the pre-operative situation, regardless of the approach chosen. No significant differences were observed regarding algofunctional outcome, quality of life, and functional parameters. The mean levels of satisfaction were comparable in all groups; however, the number of statistical outliers and of patients who would retrospectively decline this operation was significantly increased for the conventional technique. In the present study no advantages of the minimally invasive approaches were found beyond the early rehabilitation period. This is in line with the current scientific literature. In conclusion we are not able to provide a definitive recommendation in favour of one of the used approaches, especially because the validation of the anterior approach is limited by its noticeable increased revision rate in this study.

Over the course of the last few years, a new movement has taken the American political system by storm, the Tea Party. The movement has not only captivated our media but also the minds of ordinary Americans and political elites. According to popular consensus and academic opinion, the Tea Party is comprised of a group of conservative-leaning Republicans who want a smaller government and a lesser tax burden. This is what we think of the Tea Party, but is it true? It is perceived that Tea Party members differ significantly from their Republican colleagues in the House of Representatives, but do they? Do they truly represent the Tea Party philosophy and agenda? By creating an original data set on the Republican members of the United States House of Representatives, and examining variables such as the political lean, economic and employment make-up of a member's district, their endorsements and incumbency, as well as high priority legislative votes from the 112th Congress, I will be able to investigate the characteristics and tendencies of Tea Party Caucus members. Once one looks at the 242 member House Republican Caucus and further examines the sixty members of the Tea Party Caucus, the data shows that Tea Party Caucus members largely originate from safe Republican districts and have served in previous congressional terms. Analysis shows that Tea Party Caucus members do vary significantly from their House Republican colleagues when examining their districts, but do not vary as considerably when examining their voting patterns.

Over the last sixty years, voting patterns in the United States have changed dramatically, and this is especially true in the state of Florida. Though there is some literature in the field of political science that outlines the voting and election history of Florida and identifies some trends, this literature is extremely limited and is not comprehensive of the data that is available up to the present day. This study seeks to find Florida’s voting patterns and to explain how they can be understood by both the casual observer and the political scientist. To do so, unique methodology was applied that used the "relative margin" of both a county and a region in a particular election to give the Democratic nominee’s performance context both in the election in question and in history, by comparing the actual margin of victory or defeat of the Democratic nominee to the statewide margin of victory or defeat. This was an illuminating process that ultimately revealed some truths about the election history of Florida: the counties and regions most likely to vote for Democratic nominees in the 1950s and early 1960 are now among the least likely to do so, and the counties and regions most likely to vote for Republican nominees in the 1950s and early 1960s are now considered to be "swing" or "tossup" areas that are regularly and alternatively won by Democratic and Republican nominees. Additionally, the pattern of each region in how it voted in presidential elections was compared to forty seven other states in the country to provide further context as to how the election patterns can be understood in context.