Este trabalho aprofunda o estudo da paisagem na periferia da metrópole de modo interdisciplinar, valendo-se de uma perspectiva teórico-prática aplicada ao estudo de caso Jardim Celeste e entorno, São Paulo. O termo composto paisagem dos lugares foi circunscrito e utilizado a fim de enfocar o estudo da paisagem por um viés criativo e crítico, propositivo e transformador, atentando para a totalidade dos processos sociais, culturais e ambientais intrinsecamente relacionados ao objeto de estudo e seu campo empírico. Os conceitos e métodos foram criados ao longo da pesquisa e objetivaram, em última instância, a expansão do conhecimento e a emancipação dos envolvidos; para tanto, uma variedade de métodos e atividades práticas foram organizadas e aplicadas, sendo estas: a observação participante, o mapeamento do substrato do objeto de estudo, entrevistas, questionários, mutirões e oficinas. Em suma, esta dissertação versa sobre novos entendimentos e perspectivas da paisagem na metrópole através do prisma da paisagem dos lugares, as quais convidam a uma postura visual-estético-sensorial sobre o espaço da esfera pública de todos os dias. / This research sought to deepen the study of the landscape in the periphery of the metropolis through an interdisciplinary approach, making use of theories and practices applied to the case study of Jardim Celeste and its surroundings, Sao Paulo. The compound term landscape of places was defined and utilized as a means to focus the study of the landscape on the importance of proposing social transformations through creative and critical thinking. Moreover, the social, cultural and environmental processes inherently related to the study object and its empirical field have been fully considered. The concepts and methods were created as the research progressed and they aimed ultimately at expanding the knowledge and empowerment of those involved in the research. To this end, a variety of methods and practical activities were organized and implemented, such as: participant observation, mapping of the study object and is substrate, interviews, questionnaires, community work and workshops, all of them being participatory. In short, this dissertation examines new understandings and perspectives of the landscape in the metropolis through the prism of the landscape of places, which proposes a visual, sensorial and aesthetic stance on the public spaces of everyday life.

Esta tese analisa a relação entre o planejamento metropolitano e as abordagens compreensivas do licenciamento ambiental, especialmente na avaliação de planos e projetos de infra-estrutura regional na metrópole de São Paulo, a partir dos anos 1990. A evolução política e econômica da metrópole é visualizada através desses planos e projetos de infra-estrutura, cuja dimensão regional variou conforme o contexto histórico considerado: do final do século XIX até os anos 1930, está relacionada ao modelo agrárioexportador; dos anos 1930 aos anos 1970, ao processo de industrialização e integração de mercados nacionais; dos anos 1970 aos anos 1990, ao processo de desconcentração industrial e de consolidação da macrometrópole; e, a partir dos anos 1990, à globalização e seus reflexos na metrópole, num contexto de consolidação do Sistema de Meio Ambiente. A partir dos anos 1990, planos e projetos de infra-estrutura regional são obrigatoriamente submetidos ao licenciamento ambiental, que passa a influenciá-los. Com a desmobilização dos sistemas formais de planejamento metropolitano, a partir dos anos 1980, o processo de licenciamento ambiental passou a desempenhar essa função. No entanto, tal processo, em São Paulo, é bastante complexo, pois deve considerar, além do impacto local do empreendimento, os interesses regionais relacionados a estes projetos e obras estruturantes, dada a rede de influência e a importância da metrópole paulista no contexto econômico do Estado e do país. Neste sentido, parece-nos necessário restabelecer um sistema de planejamento metropolitano efetivo em novas bases, com legitimidade, compromisso e governança. / This thesis analyses the relationship between metropolitan planning and comprehensives approaches of the environmental licensing process in Sao Paulo metropolis, since 1990s. The metropolis political and economic evolution are seen through these infrastrucuture plans and projects, whose regional dimension has varied according to the historical context: from the end of 19th century to the 1930s, it is related to the export driven agribusiness economy; from the 1930s to the 1970s it is related to the Brazilian industrialization and the national market integration process; from the 1970s to the 1990s it is related to the dispersion of industries over the territory and the consolidation of a macro-region centered in Sao Paulo; and, since the 1990s, it is related to the globalization and its impacts on Sao Paulo metropolis, in a context of consolidation of its environmental planning system. Since then, the environmental licensing process is an indispensable part of any regional infrastructure planning or project and may have a great impact on its future development. From the 1980s, with the demise of the formal metropolitan plannning system, the environment licensing process had to care for its function. However, this process in the São Paulo metropolis is quite complex, because it has to evaluate not only the local impact of an infrastructure project but also its regional interests, due to the net of influences exerted by the metropolis on the State and the country economy. Therefore, it looks necessary to re-establish an effective metropolitan planning system on a new basis, in order to guarantee its legitimacy, commitment and governance.

Les lois de décentralisation de 1982-1983 ont eu pour effet de développer le rôle des collectivités territoriales, d’où l’importance du contrôle de gestion pour améliorer la performance (Carassus et al., 2011). Le contrôle de gestion consiste à articuler la stratégie et l’opérationnel (Anthony, 1988, Bouquin, 1997 et 2004). Plus précisément, le contrôle de gestion peut être défini comme étant « le processus par lequel les managers influencent d’autres membres de l’organisation pour mettre en œuvre les stratégies de l’organisation » (Anthony, 1988). Le contrôle de gestion pourrait alors permettre de piloter une organisation. Il peut être entendu comme « une démarche de management qui relie stratégie et action opérationnelle » (Demeestère, et al., 2006). Pour cela, selon ces auteurs, cela suppose préalablement de définir la performance et la mesurer avec des indicateurs appropriés. Or, le secteur public, notamment les collectivités territoriales présentent des spécificités à considérer pour pouvoir piloter. Le nouveau management public (New Public Management d’Hood) vise à « moderniser » l’action publique « souvent jugée comme contreproductive, en introduisant en son sein des pans de rationalité managériale » (Amar et Berthier, 2007). Un enjeu semble être l’adaptabilité, des méthodes et des outils dans le secteur public, compte tenu des valeurs véhiculées et des attentes des multiples parties prenantes. Les outils de gestion semblent in fine peu adaptés au secteur public. La responsabilité sociale des organisations et le pilotage des projets de développement durable dans les métropoles françaises pourraient supposer un glissement du « standardisé » maladroitement adapté au secteur public au « sur mesure » (Amar et Berthier, 2007). En l’occurrence, la notion de performance suppose la prise en considération de l’usager, sous contrainte d’efficacité opérationnelle ; ainsi que les attentes des parties prenantes et de leurs comportements socialement responsables plus ou moins engagés ou contraints. Aussi, l’objectif de cette recherche est d’analyser la dynamique organisationnelle responsable des métropoles françaises. En référence aux travaux de Di Maggio et Powell, une dynamique collective peut en effet résulter de la contrainte, de la norme mais aussi de l’exemple quant au pilotage des projets de développement durable. / The decentralization laws of 1982-1983 developed the role of local authorities, hence the importance of management control to improve performance (Carassus et al., 2011). Management control consists in articulating the strategy and the operational (Anthony, 1988, Bouquin, 1997 and 2004). More specifically, management control can be defined as "the process by which managers influence other members of an organization to implement organization's strategies" (Anthony, 1988). Only then can management control be used to manage an organization. It can be understood as "a management approach that links strategy and operational action" (Demeestère, et al., 2006). According to these authors, this presupposes the existence of a prior performance definition and its measurement with appropriate indicators. However, public sector, especially local authorities, have specificities which must be taken into account for the success of the control. The New Public Management (according to Hood) aims to "modernize" public action "often considered as counterproductive, by introducing a managerial rationality" (Amar and Berthier, 2007). The main challenge seems to be adaptability, of methods and tools in the public sector, given values conveyed and expectations of multiple stakeholders. Management tools seem ultimately poorly adapted to the public sector.The social responsibility of organizations and the steering of sustainable development projects in French cities could suppose a shift from "standardized" clumsily adapted to the public sector to "tailor-made" (Amar and Berthier, 2007). In this case, notion of performance must integrate users, under constraint of operational efficiency, as well as stakeholders’ expectations and their socially responsible behaviour, which may be more or less committed or forced. The objective of this research is to analyse the responsible organizational dynamics of French cities. In reference to Di Maggio and Powell, the collective dynamic relating to sustainable projects within a metropolis can result either from norms application, constraint or from imitation of other social environment actors.

L’approche des centres-villes métropolitains, au travers les animations culturelles et festives, permet d’aborder un système urbain complexe. Elles mettent en exergue un réseau d’acteurs actifs qui valorise les différentes facettes du système dans le but de créer un espace singulier. L’action politique et les aménagements réalisés cherchent à soutenir cette singularité spatiale, source de rayonnement et d’attractivité de la cité. L’aménagement des centres-villes métropolitains prend en compte la facette culturelle pour créer des espaces distincts mais rapidement identifiables par leurs usagers, des espaces qui se métamorphosent de façon éphémère ou durable, des espaces qui s’adaptent au temps… Cette prédominance de la culture force l’esprit des lieux à se manifester accentuant la mise en scène des centres-villes métropolitains. Ce corps urbain complexe devient original, entrainé par la facette culturelle, source d’universalité, qui n’implique pas de relation de hiérarchie dans ses fonctions mais des connexions qui enrichissent les dynamiques territoriales. / The approach of metropolitan downtowns through cultural and festive animations permits to study a complex urban system. It highlights a network of active stakeholders who valorise various aspect of the system with the aim of creating a singular space The political action and the planning realised, seek to support this spatial singularity which is a source of the attractiveness for the city.The planning of metropolitan downtowns takes care of the cultural aspect to create distinctly spaces but rapidly identifiable by their users and spaces which metamorphose in an ephemeral or durable way, spaces which adapt with the time… This predominance of the culture obliges the manifestation of the soul of the place accentuating the setting scene of the metropolitan downtowns.This complex system becomes original thanks to the cultural aspect, source of universality, which does not involve hierarchical relation in his functions but connexions which improves the territorial dynamics.

This project addresses the problem of comparing the offensive abilities of players from different eras in Major League Baseball (MLB). We will study players from the perspective of an overall offensive summary statistic that is highly linked with scoring runs, or the Berry Value. We will build an additive model to estimate the innate ability of the player, the effect of the relative level of competition of each season, and the effect of age on performance using piecewise age curves. Using Hierarchical Bayes methodology with Gibbs sampling, we model each of these effects for each individual. The results of the Hierarchical Bayes model permit us to link players from different eras and to rank the players across the modern era of baseball (1900-2004) on the basis of their innate overall offensive ability. The top of the rankings, of which the top three were Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, and Stan Musial, include many Hall of Famers and some of the most productive offensive players in the history of the game. We also determine that trends in overall offensive ability in Major League Baseball exist based on different rule and cultural changes. Based on the model, MLB is currently at a high level of run production compared to the different levels of run production over the last century.

Nas primeiras décadas do século XX, em um contexto cultural caracterizado por experimentações, redefinições e rupturas, no qual se desenvolveram as chamadas vanguardas artísticas européias, arquitetura, cidade e cinema estabeleceram entre si diferentes formas de interlocução, inclusive a criação de arquiteturas e cidades destinadas exclusivamente para os filmes. Estreitamente vinculadas às problemáticas de seu tempo, estas arquiteturas e cidades ficcionais dialogaram diretamente com as experimentações realizadas no âmbito artístico e arquitetônico das vanguardas, além de configurarem um veículo direto de comunicação com o público de massas. A partir de três filmes produzidos no cinema europeu do período entreguerras - Aelita (Yakov Protazanov, URSS, 1924), Metropolis (Fritz Lang, Alemanha, 1927) e Things to Come (Daqui a Cem Anos, William Cameron Menzies, Inglaterra, 1936) - este trabalho analisa estas arquiteturas e cidades cinematográficas, seus processos de concepção, produção e difusão, assim como suas interlocuções com o contexto cultural vigente. Através de artifícios intrínsecos à linguagem e à narrativa cinematográficas, estas obras incorporam em suas visões de cidade muitos dos aspectos da metrópole do início do século XX, assim como das propostas arquitetônicas e urbanísticas desenvolvidas naquele período, configurando espaços de problematização e articulação de idéias, tratando de questões como: a vida na metrópole e as ambigüidades e contradições impostas ao habitante metropolitano; as novas tecnologias, e as formas como estas impactavam o cotidiano e incitavam a imaginação; as experimentações formais das vanguardas artísticas e a busca pela superação dos limites entre arte e vida; as novas concepções de arquiteturas e cidades, e seu intuito de criar novas lógicas de organização espacial e urbana, que poderiam contribuir para a criação de um novo homem e uma nova sociedade. / In the first decades of the twentieth century, in the cultural context of the European Avant Gardes, architecture, city and cinema had established between themselves different forms of dialogue, including the creation of fictional architectures and cities destined exclusively for the films. Through the analysis of three films - Aelita (Yakov Protazanov, USSR, 1924), Metropolis (Fritz Lang, Germany, 1927) and Things to Come (William Cameron Menzies, 1936), this work seeks to identify the ways that these cinematographic architectures and cities, developed for the European cinema in the interwar period, had reflected, reformulated and released for the masses such issues as: the life in the metropolis and the ambiguities and contradictions imposed to the metropolitan inhabitant; the new technologies, and the ways they impacted the daily lives and incited the imagination; the formal experimentations of the avant-gardes and the pursuit of overcoming the boundaries between art and life; the new conceptions of architectures and cities, and its intention to create new logics of space and urban organizations, which could contribute to the creation of a new man and a new society.

Nas primeiras décadas do século XX, em um contexto cultural caracterizado por experimentações, redefinições e rupturas, no qual se desenvolveram as chamadas vanguardas artísticas européias, arquitetura, cidade e cinema estabeleceram entre si diferentes formas de interlocução, inclusive a criação de arquiteturas e cidades destinadas exclusivamente para os filmes. Estreitamente vinculadas às problemáticas de seu tempo, estas arquiteturas e cidades ficcionais dialogaram diretamente com as experimentações realizadas no âmbito artístico e arquitetônico das vanguardas, além de configurarem um veículo direto de comunicação com o público de massas. A partir de três filmes produzidos no cinema europeu do período entreguerras - Aelita (Yakov Protazanov, URSS, 1924), Metropolis (Fritz Lang, Alemanha, 1927) e Things to Come (Daqui a Cem Anos, William Cameron Menzies, Inglaterra, 1936) - este trabalho analisa estas arquiteturas e cidades cinematográficas, seus processos de concepção, produção e difusão, assim como suas interlocuções com o contexto cultural vigente. Através de artifícios intrínsecos à linguagem e à narrativa cinematográficas, estas obras incorporam em suas visões de cidade muitos dos aspectos da metrópole do início do século XX, assim como das propostas arquitetônicas e urbanísticas desenvolvidas naquele período, configurando espaços de problematização e articulação de idéias, tratando de questões como: a vida na metrópole e as ambigüidades e contradições impostas ao habitante metropolitano; as novas tecnologias, e as formas como estas impactavam o cotidiano e incitavam a imaginação; as experimentações formais das vanguardas artísticas e a busca pela superação dos limites entre arte e vida; as novas concepções de arquiteturas e cidades, e seu intuito de criar novas lógicas de organização espacial e urbana, que poderiam contribuir para a criação de um novo homem e uma nova sociedade. / In the first decades of the twentieth century, in the cultural context of the European Avant Gardes, architecture, city and cinema had established between themselves different forms of dialogue, including the creation of fictional architectures and cities destined exclusively for the films. Through the analysis of three films - Aelita (Yakov Protazanov, USSR, 1924), Metropolis (Fritz Lang, Germany, 1927) and Things to Come (William Cameron Menzies, 1936), this work seeks to identify the ways that these cinematographic architectures and cities, developed for the European cinema in the interwar period, had reflected, reformulated and released for the masses such issues as: the life in the metropolis and the ambiguities and contradictions imposed to the metropolitan inhabitant; the new technologies, and the ways they impacted the daily lives and incited the imagination; the formal experimentations of the avant-gardes and the pursuit of overcoming the boundaries between art and life; the new conceptions of architectures and cities, and its intention to create new logics of space and urban organizations, which could contribute to the creation of a new man and a new society.

Les méthodes de Monte Carlo par chaînes de Markov (MCCM) sont des méthodes servant à échantillonner à partir de distributions de probabilité. Ces techniques se basent sur le parcours de chaînes de Markov ayant pour lois stationnaires les distributions à échantillonner. Étant donné leur facilité d’application, elles constituent une des approches les plus utilisées dans la communauté statistique, et tout particulièrement en analyse bayésienne. Ce sont des outils très populaires pour l’échantillonnage de lois de probabilité complexes et/ou en grandes dimensions. Depuis l’apparition de la première méthode MCCM en 1953 (la méthode de Metropolis, voir [10]), l’intérêt pour ces méthodes, ainsi que l’éventail d’algorithmes disponibles ne cessent de s’accroître d’une année à l’autre. Bien que l’algorithme Metropolis-Hastings (voir [8]) puisse être considéré comme l’un des algorithmes de Monte Carlo par chaînes de Markov les plus généraux, il est aussi l’un des plus simples à comprendre et à expliquer, ce qui en fait un algorithme idéal pour débuter. Il a été sujet de développement par plusieurs chercheurs. L’algorithme Metropolis à essais multiples (MTM), introduit dans la littérature statistique par [9], est considéré comme un développement intéressant dans ce domaine, mais malheureusement son implémentation est très coûteuse (en termes de temps). Récemment, un nouvel algorithme a été développé par [1]. Il s’agit de l’algorithme Metropolis à essais multiples revisité (MTM revisité), qui définit la méthode MTM standard mentionnée précédemment dans le cadre de l’algorithme Metropolis-Hastings sur un espace étendu. L’objectif de ce travail est, en premier lieu, de présenter les méthodes MCCM, et par la suite d’étudier et d’analyser les algorithmes Metropolis-Hastings ainsi que le MTM standard afin de permettre aux lecteurs une meilleure compréhension de l’implémentation de ces méthodes. Un deuxième objectif est d’étudier les perspectives ainsi que les inconvénients de l’algorithme MTM revisité afin de voir s’il répond aux attentes de la communauté statistique. Enfin, nous tentons de combattre le problème de sédentarité de l’algorithme MTM revisité, ce qui donne lieu à un tout nouvel algorithme. Ce nouvel algorithme performe bien lorsque le nombre de candidats générés à chaque itérations est petit, mais sa performance se dégrade à mesure que ce nombre de candidats croît. / Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are methods that are used for sampling from probability distributions. These tools are based on the path of a Markov chain whose stationary distribution is the distribution to be sampled. Given their relative ease of application, they are one of the most popular approaches in the statistical community, especially in Bayesian analysis. These methods are very popular for sampling from complex and/or high dimensional probability distributions. Since the appearance of the first MCMC method in 1953 (the Metropolis algorithm, see [10]), the interest for these methods, as well as the range of algorithms available, continue to increase from one year to another. Although the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm (see [8]) can be considered as one of the most general Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, it is also one of the easiest to understand and explain, making it an ideal algorithm for beginners. As such, it has been studied by several researchers. The multiple-try Metropolis (MTM) algorithm , proposed by [9], is considered as one interesting development in this field, but unfortunately its implementation is quite expensive (in terms of time). Recently, a new algorithm was developed by [1]. This method is named the revisited multiple-try Metropolis algorithm (MTM revisited), which is obtained by expressing the MTM method as a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm on an extended space. The objective of this work is to first present MCMC methods, and subsequently study and analyze the Metropolis-Hastings and standard MTM algorithms to allow readers a better perspective on the implementation of these methods. A second objective is to explore the opportunities and disadvantages of the revisited MTM algorithm to see if it meets the expectations of the statistical community. We finally attempt to fight the sedentarity of the revisited MTM algorithm, which leads to a new algorithm. The latter performs efficiently when the number of generated candidates in a given iteration is small, but the performance of this new algorithm then deteriorates as the number of candidates in a given iteration increases.

No description available.

A análise fatorial é uma importante ferramenta estatística que tem amplas aplicações práticas e explica a correlação entre um grande número de variáveis observáveis em termos de um pequeno número de variáveis não observáveis, conhecidas como variáveis latentes. A proposta deste trabalho é fazer a análise Bayesiana, que incorpora à análise o conhecimento que se tenha sobre os parâmetros antes da coleta dos dados, do modelo fatorial dinâmico na classe de modelos elípticos multivariados, assumindo que a um vetor de q séries temporais pode-se ajustar um modelo fatorial com k < q fatores mais um ruído branco, e que a parte latente segue um modelo vetorial auto-regressivo. A classe de modelos elípticos citada acima é rica em distribuições simétricas com caudas mais pesadas que as da distribuição normal, característica importante na análise de séries financeiras. Essa classe inclui as distribuições t de Student, exponencial potência, normal contaminada, entre outras. A inferência sobre os parâmetros foi feita utilizando métodos de Monte Carlo via Cadeias de Markov, com os algoritmos Metropolis-Hastings e Griddy-Gibbs, através da obtenção das distribuições a posteriori dos parâmetros e dos fatores. A determinação da convergência do processo foi feita por técnicas gráficas e pelos métodos de Geweke (1992), de Heidelberger e Welch (1983) e Half-Width. O método foi ilustrado usando dados reais e simulados. / The factor analysis is an important statistical tool that has wide practical applications and it explains the correlation among a large number of observable variables in terms of a small number of unobservable variables, known as latent variables. The proposal of this work is the Bayesian analysis, which incorporates the information we have concerning the parameters before collecting data into the analysis of a dynamical factor model in the class of multivariate elliptical models, where the factors follow a multivariate autoregressive model, assuming that a vector of q time series can be adjusted with k < q factors and a white noise. The class of elliptical models is rich in symmetrical distributions with heavier tails than the normal distribution, which is an important characteristic in financial series analysis. This class includes t-Student, power exponential, contaminated normal and other distributions. The parameters inference was made through Monte Carlo Markov Chain methods, with Metropolis-Hastings and Griddy-Gibbs algorithms, by obtaining the parameters and factors posteriori distributions. The convergence process was made through graphical technics and by Geweke (1992) and by Heidelberger and Welch (1983) and Half- Width methods. The method was illustrated using simulated and real data.