Conventions are social institutions that solve recurrent coordination problems. Many of the written and unwritten rules that make up a modern market society may be said to have the coordinative property. This dissertation uses a game-theoretical framework to discuss the emergence and functioning of conventions of communication, private property rights, money, and the firm. In each case the anlysis provides new insigts for these classical areas of economic inquiry. / <p>Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan, 1990</p>

Submitted by Fernando Antônio de Barros Júnior (fernando.junior@fgvmail.br) on 2014-03-17T14:31:41Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao_final.pdf: 416302 bytes, checksum: 42bb00304953a814c57d6ada5116013d (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by ÁUREA CORRÊA DA FONSECA CORRÊA DA FONSECA (aurea.fonseca@fgv.br) on 2014-04-04T19:26:45Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao_final.pdf: 416302 bytes, checksum: 42bb00304953a814c57d6ada5116013d (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Maria Almeida (maria.socorro@fgv.br) on 2014-04-09T14:53:57Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao_final.pdf: 416302 bytes, checksum: 42bb00304953a814c57d6ada5116013d (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2014-04-09T14:54:18Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao_final.pdf: 416302 bytes, checksum: 42bb00304953a814c57d6ada5116013d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-03-12 / I study optima in a random-matching model of outside money. The examples in this paper show a conflict between private and collective interests. While the planner worry about the extensive and intensive margin effects of trades in a steady state, people want the exhaust the gains from trades immediately, i.e., once in a meeting, consumers prefer spend more for a better output than take the risk of saving money and wait for good meetings in the future. Thus, the conflict can force the planner to choose allocations with a more disperse money distribution, mainly if people are im- patient. When the patient rate is low enough, the planner uses a expansionary policy to generate a better distribution of money for future trades.

A teoria econômica mostra que instabilidade financeira é um problema que atinge as economias nos períodos de recessão causando desemprego, queda nos níveis de consumo e poupança, surgimento de corridas bancárias e, consequentemente, a redução do bemestar da sociedade. A literatura que estuda instabilidade financeira divide-se em duas vertentes as quais importantes referências nas áreas de estudo sem serviço sequencial e com serviço sequencial são Allen e Gale (2000) e Bertolai, Cavalcanti, e Monteiro (2016), respectivamente. A contribuição deste trabalho consiste em apresentar os modelos e principais resultados de Allen e Gale (2000) e Bertolai et al. (2016) como casos limites de um mesmo problema de escolha do sistema bancário ótimo para estabelecer, em seguida, resultados complementares à essas referências. A primeira contribuição, no ambiente em que não existe serviço sequencial, é propor uma nova forma de divisão do choque inesperado de liquidez no modelo de Allen e Gale (2000) de modo que esse mecanismo de cooperação no interbancário consiga evitar contágio e o colapso generalizado entre os bancos. Já no ambiente com serviço sequencial, uma segunda contribuição é estender Bertolai et al. (2016) ao estabelecer novos equilíbrios de corrida bancária, em que os três últimos depositantes de cada um dos bancos da economia não participam da corrida bancária. / Economic theory shows that financial instability is a problem that affects economies in times of recession, causing unemployment, falling consumption and saving levels, the emergence of bank-run , and consequently the reduction of the welfare of society. The literature that studies financial instability is divided into two strands where important references in the study areas without sequential and sequential service are Allen e Gale (2000) and Bertolai et al. (2016), respectively. The contribution of this work is to present the models and main results of Allen e Gale (2000) and Bertolai et al. (2016) as limiting cases of the same problem of choosing the optimal banking system, in order to establish subsequent results complementary to these references. The first contribution, in the environment in which there is no sequential service, is to propose a new way of dividing the unexpected liquidity shock in the Allen e Gale (2000) model so that this mechanism of interbank cooperation can avoid contagion and the generalized collapse between the banks. In the sequential service environment, a second contribution is to extend Bertolai et al. (2016) by establishing new banking run balances in which the last three depositors of each of the banks of the economy do not participate in the bank run.

Esta Tese é composta por dois ensaios sobre Política Monetária. O primeiro ensaio trata da demanda por recursos intradiários e over. Com base no comportamento intradiário, são realizadas simulações para estimar a distribuição do saldo em reservas bancárias ao final do dia. A hipótese principal é de que o saldo em reservas ao longo do dia é um Processo de Levy composto por três componentes: um movimento browniano, um processo de Poisson composto com intensidade negativa e outro com intensidade positiva. Para determinar os parâmetros das simulações foram consideradas as situações em que processo é apenas um movimento browniano, ou apenas um processo de Poisson composto, ou ambos. Os parâmetros foram estimados pelos métodos convencionais e pelo modelo Tweedie, sendo feitas algumas ressalvas com relação às correlações entre defasagens. Além dos procedimentos de simulação tradicionais, foi utilizado o Bootstrap e sugerida uma forma alternativa. O modelo que apresentou melhor desempenho foi o que considera que o processo é um processo de Poisson composto. O segundo ensaio tem como tema a taxa natural de juros. Foram implementados três modelos e duas formas de estimá-los (Filtro de Kalman e estimação bayesiana). O modelo com melhor desempenho foi o modelo sugerido em Kirker (2008) estimado por procedimentos bayesianos. Como resultado, a taxa natural de juros está menor do que a taxa de juros real de curto prazo desde junho de 2009, o que sugere uma política monetária contracionista / This Thesis is composed of two essays on Monetary Policy. The first is about intraday and over reserve balances demand. Based on reserves intraday behavior, simulations are made to estimate reseve balances distribution at the end of the day. The main hypothesis is that reserve balaces along the day are Levy processes, with three components: a Brownian motion and two compound Poisson processes, one with negative and the other with a positive intensity. To determine simulation parameters, the process was alternatively considered a brownian motion, a compound Poisson process, or both. The parameters were estimeted by conventional methods and by the Tweedie model, when there is no autocorrelation. After these procedures of traditional simulation, a Bootstrap was used and an alternative procedure was proposed. The model with the best performance is the compound Poisson Process. The second essay is about natural interest rate. Three models are implementated and estimated by two methods (Kalman Filter e bayesian estimation). The best performance was obtained by the model based on Kirker (2008) and estimated through Kalman Filter. As a result, the natural interest rate was found to be above short run real interest rate since June 2009, sugesting expansionary Monetary Policy.

Submitted by Jefferson Bertolai (jdonizeti@fgvmail.br) on 2012-12-10T19:34:37Z No. of bitstreams: 1 thesis3.pdf: 652761 bytes, checksum: 8b49645ceaf7c2b51d6842e8637760cf (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Marcia Bacha (marcia.bacha@fgv.br) on 2013-02-27T12:48:53Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 thesis3.pdf: 652761 bytes, checksum: 8b49645ceaf7c2b51d6842e8637760cf (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-02-27T12:49:06Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 thesis3.pdf: 652761 bytes, checksum: 8b49645ceaf7c2b51d6842e8637760cf (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-08-24 / This thesis is dedicated to the study of both financial instability and dynamics in monetary theory. It is shown that bank runs are costless prevented in the standard model of banking theory when population is not small. An extension is proposed where aggregate uncertainty is more severe and fi nancial stability cost is relevant. Finally, transitions in the distribution of money are shown to be optimal in an economy where exchanges opportunities are scarce and heterogeneous. In particular, optimality of inflation depends on dynamic incentives provided by such transitions. Chapter 1 establishes the costless result for large economies by studying the e ffects of population size in the Peck-Shell analysis of bank runs. In chapter 2, dynamics optimality is studied in Kiyotaki-Wright monetary model when society is able to implement a inflationary policy. Despite adopting the mechanism design approach, this chapter parallels Sargent and Wallace (1981) analysis in highlighting dynamic incentives to the interaction between fiscal and monetary policies. Chapter 3 returns to the issue of financial stability by quantifying the costs involved in optimally designing a run-proof banking sector and by proposing an alternative information structure which allows for insolvent banks. Former analysis shows that optimal stability scheme features high long term interest rates, and the latter that imperfect monitoring can lead to bank runs with insolvency. / Esta tese de Doutorado é dedicada ao estudo de instabilidade financeira e dinâmica em Teoria Monet ária. E demonstrado que corridas banc árias são eliminadas sem custos no modelo padrão de teoria banc ária quando a popula ção não é pequena. É proposta uma extensão em que incerteza agregada é mais severa e o custo da estabilidade financeira é relevante. Finalmente, estabelece-se otimalidade de transições na distribui ção de moeda em economias em que oportunidades de trocas são escassas e heterogêneas. Em particular, otimalidade da inflação depende dos incentivos dinâmicos proporcionados por tais transi ções. O capí tulo 1 estabelece o resultado de estabilidade sem custos para economias grandes ao estudar os efeitos do tamanho populacional na an álise de corridas banc árias de Peck & Shell. No capí tulo 2, otimalidade de dinâmica é estudada no modelo de monet ário de Kiyotaki & Wright quando a sociedade é capaz de implementar uma polí tica inflacion ária. Apesar de adotar a abordagem de desenho de mecanismos, este capí tulo faz um paralelo com a an álise de Sargent & Wallace (1981) ao destacar efeitos de incentivos dinâmicos sobre a interação entre as polí ticas monet ária e fiscal. O cap ítulo 3 retoma o tema de estabilidade fi nanceira ao quanti car os custos envolvidos no desenho ótimo de um setor bancário à prova de corridas e ao propor uma estrutura informacional alternativa que possibilita bancos insolventes. A primeira an álise mostra que o esquema de estabilidade ótima exibe altas taxas de juros de longo prazo e a segunda que monitoramento imperfeito pode levar a corridas bancárias com insolvência.

Submitted by Caio Teles (caio_act@hotmail.com) on 2013-09-26T18:52:08Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação - Caio.pdf: 249330 bytes, checksum: a3aa165cfa955b84e1621a3c404da19c (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Janete de Oliveira Feitosa (janete.feitosa@fgv.br) on 2013-09-27T13:32:40Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação - Caio.pdf: 249330 bytes, checksum: a3aa165cfa955b84e1621a3c404da19c (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Marcia Bacha (marcia.bacha@fgv.br) on 2013-09-30T12:55:22Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação - Caio.pdf: 249330 bytes, checksum: a3aa165cfa955b84e1621a3c404da19c (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-09-30T12:55:31Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação - Caio.pdf: 249330 bytes, checksum: a3aa165cfa955b84e1621a3c404da19c (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-06-28 / This paper analyzes the distribution of money holdings in a commo dity money search-based mo del with intermediation. Intro ducing heterogeneity of costs to the Kiyotaki e Wright ( 1989 ) mo del, Cavalcanti e Puzzello ( 2010) gives rise to a non-degenerated distribution of money. We extend further this mo del intro ducing intermediation in the trading pro cess. We show that the distribution of money matters for savings decisions. This gives rises to a xed p oint problem for the saving function that di cults nding the optimal solution. Through some examples, we show that this friction shrinks the distribution of money. In contrast to the Cavalcanti e Puzzello ( 2010 ) mo del, the optimal solution may not present the entire surplus going to the consumer. At the end of the pap er, we present a strong result, for a su cient large numb er of intermediaries the distribution of money is degenerated.

Money is the most ubiquitous institution on the planet. It gave rise to literacy, mathematics, sedentary community, and the concept of universal value. Against this backdrop, however, hardly anyone understands what money is. Orthodox monetary theory conceives of money as a neutral commodity that facilitates barter. Presupposing this theory is a dualistic and atomistic ontology in which reality is organized into hierarchically ordered opposites of superiority and inferiority and complex interactions are reduced to summations of their attendant parts. Accordingly, monetary policy is enacted as though money were any other commodity, subject to the barter dynamics of supply and demand. In this manner, the vast majority of money in modern economies is created by commercial banks in pursuit of profit maximization. An interdisciplinary literature conceives of money as a social relation of credits and debts denominated in a unit of account. Such an approach complicates and undermines the assumptions of economic theory and allows for a more effective approach to the problems attendant to modern money. This dissertation draws upon this literature to develop an Ecological Monetary Theory (EMT) that is simultaneously rooted in a social understanding of money, and an ontology of embeddedness. The first chapter draws upon ecofeminist theory to explore the ontological presuppositions of neoclassical economic theory and the monetary theory it informs. It argues that the dualism and atomism central to Western philosophy manifest as the misleading conceptualization that money is a commodity that facilitates barter. It then explores an interdisciplinary literature to argue that barter has never existed as an economic mode and money’s nature lies rather in the unit of account. It then argues that ecological economics must develop a theory of money of its own in order to avoid importing the dualistic ontology at the heart of orthodox monetary theory. The second chapter develops an ecological monetary theory. It does this by using an interdisciplinary literature to answer three closely-related questions: What is money? How does money get its value? How does money get into society? It then develops an ontology of embededdness by exploring the ontological presuppositions of ecological economics and ecofeminism. Then it develops a two-tiered theory in which money’s abstract social nature is mediated against its tangible biophysical claim through this ontology of embeddedness in order to address the contradiction at the heart of both social and material conceptions of money. The third chapter uses ecological monetary theory to test the desirability of a public banking proposal. In such a proposal, the prerogative of money creation is taken from the commercial banking sector and given solely to the State. This returns seigniorage to the public and allows the government to create money for social and ecological purpose, destroying money through taxation in order to maintain the money’s value. This chapter determines that, given certain parameters, public banking is a desirable alternative to the current monetary system.

This thesis seeks to forge a conversation between two schools of contemporary political-economic thought - degrowth and modern monetary theory. With today's urgent, multiple, and interlinked socio-ecological crises, the degrowth school of thought has become increasingly relevant. While the degrowth movement has proposed a range of policies and visions for a post-capitalist future, the structural growth imperatives of capitalist states make degrowth visions politically and economically challenging to realize. Thus far, degrowth policies that aim to weaken society's growth imperative and start building a post-capitalist society have largely been raised from the assumption that governments are limited in budgetary terms, implicitly informed by the hegemonic neoclassical economics lens. However, modern monetary theory (MMT) has recently permeated the public debate, offering an alternative take on public spending, deficits, and the government’s fiscal policy space. MMT argues that monetary sovereign states are not fiscally constrained in the same way that households and non-sovereign entities are - instead, the actual limitations to spending are the resources available to a given nation. Yet, MMT theorists give insufficient attention to ecological considerations, exemplified by their tendency to take continued economic growth for granted and overlook ecological limits, particularly from a global justice perspective. Using an Ecological Political Economy lens, this thesis initiates a conversation between the degrowth and MMT scholarship, finding that while there are both distinct tensions between the two schools, there are also many synergies and possibilities for further cross-fertilization between them within the normative goal of socio-ecological sustainability and justice.

O presente trabalho tem como objetivo analisar a persistência inflacionária no Brasil entre 1999 e 2016, isto é, investigar as suas causas, seus mecanismos e estimar o seu grau. A hipótese geral é que há um grau significativo de resiliência na inflação mesmo após a implantação do regime de metas, o que dá indícios de que existem causas de pressão inflacionária que estão sendo desconsideradas. De forma a responder à pergunta “por que a inflação ainda tem persistência no Brasil?” e cumprir o objetivo, este estudo se constrói em perspectiva tanto teórica quanto empírica. Em um primeiro momento, realiza uma revisão de literatura entre as abordagens convencional, keynesiana e estruturalista do processo inflacionário, de modo a compreender as diferenças entre os postulados teóricos destas vertentes e, posteriormente, introduz aos conceitos de persistência. Em seguida, são discutidas as várias fontes de inflação (sejam elas relacionadas ao agregado monetário ou não), a evolução das expectativas, a eficácia da taxa de juros como instrumento de política antiinflacionária e algumas políticas não-monetárias que contribuem para a estabilidade de preços. Por fim, através de estimadores GPH, Whittle, Expoente de Hurst e um modelo autorregressivo de integração fracionada (ARFIMA), é estimado o grau de tal resiliência no caso brasileiro. / The present study aims to analyze the inflationary persistence in Brazil between 1999 and 2016, which means to investigate its causes, its mechanisms and to estimate its degree. The general hypothesis is that there is a significant degree of resilience in inflation even after the implementation of the targets, which gives indications that there are causes of inflationary pressures being disregarded. In order to answer the question “Why is inflation still persistent in Brazil?” and fulfill its goal, this work is built on both theoretical and empirical perspective. At first, it performs a literature review between the conventional, keynesian and structuralist approaches of inflationary process, in order to understand the differences among the theoretical postulates of these strands and later introduces to the concepts of persistence. Next, the various sources of inflation (whether them related to the monetary aggregate or not), the evolution of expectations, the effectiveness of the interest rate as an instrument of anti-inflationary policy and some non-monetary policies that contribute to price stability are discussed. Finally, through GPH and Whittle estimators, Hurst Exponent and an autoregressive fractionally integrated model (ARFIMA), it is estimated the degree of such resilience in the Brazilian case.

Este trabalho investiga a adequação científica das teorias monetárias e financeiras marxistas em face à nova realidade do pós-1971, tendo como ponto de partida a introdução lógica da forma dinheiro inconversível. A primeira parte, composta pelos dois primeiros capítulos, discute as duas maiores heranças que Marx recebeu - Hegel e o pensamento monetário inglês do século XIX -, para aí evidenciarmos tanto suas potencialidades quanto suas inevitáveis limitações. Quando passamos à segunda parte, constituída pelos dois últimos capítulos, o foco recai sobre a tentativa de fazer as categorias marxistas se adequarem ao nosso hodierno sistema financeiro e monetário; com um ponto claro: mostrar a ligação necessária entre o dinheiro inconversível e a atual formação de capital fictício. Momento no qual os derivativos financeiros se revelarão objetos contraditórios e, mais do que instrumentos, produtores de suas próprias pressuposições - em especial, o risco abstrato. Dessa forma estaremos aptos a analisar em toda sua profundidade o ciclo do moderno capital fictício - da mercadoria-capital, do capital que retorna como capital ao seu predicado lógico inicial. O resultado deste movimento será o engendramento de um novo capital abstrato, para o qual os swaps são seu veículo. / Departing from the logical introduction of the inconvertible money form this dissertation investigates the scientific adequateness of the monetary and financial Marxist theories to the new post-1971 reality. The first part, constituted by the first two chapters, discusses the two main heritages that Marx received - Hegel and the English monetary thought from the 19th century - to then make evident both its potentialities and its inevitable limitations. Moreover, with the clear objective of disclosing the necessary connection between inconvertible money and the present formation of fictitious capital, the second part, composed by the last two chapters, will focus on the attempt to adequate Marxist categories to our hodiern financial and monetary system. Moment to which financial derivatives will reveal themselves as contradictory objects and, more than just hedge devices, as producers of their own presuppositions - in special, abstract risk. In this way, we will be capable to analyze in all its profoundness the circuit of the modern fictitious capital - capital-commodity, capital that returned as capital to its first logical predicate. The outcome of this movement is the yield of an abstract capital, to which swaps are its vehicle.