This thesis consists of three essays. In the first essay, I show that information about dividends implied in derivative markets predicts future dividend growth and thereby improves the forecasts of short-run returns on the aggregate market. In the second essay, we analyze the impact of options trading on the price distribution of the underlying asset. Specifically, we show that S&P 500 futures finish in the proximity of the closest strike price on days when options on S&P 500 futures expire. We document that this effect is mainly driven by the rebalancing of delta hedges of the market maker. In the third essay, we develop a theory of price support in security markets that arises from conflict of interests, and we test our hypothesis in the context of the Spanish mutual fund industry. In particular, we analyze how bank-affiliated mutual funds trade in the stock of the parent bank and show that, consistently with the price support hypothesis, affiliated mutual funds tend to increase their holdings of the parent bank’s stock following a large drop in its price. / Esta tesis consta de tres capítulos. En el primer capítulo, muestro que la información sobre dividendos implícita en los mercados de derivados predice el crecimiento futuro de los dividendos, mejorando así las predicciones de los rendimientos a corto plazo en el mercado agregado. En el segundo capítulo, analizamos el impacto de la compraventa de opciones en la distribución del precio del activo subyacente. En concreto, mostramos que los futuros del S&P 500 terminan en el entorno del precio de ejercicio más próximo en los días en que las opciones sobre los futuros del S&P 500 expiran. Documentamos que este efecto está principalmente motivado por el reajuste de la cobertura delta de los intermediarios. En el tercer capítulo, desarrollamos una teoría de sostenimiento de precios en los mercados de valores motivado por un conflicto de intereses y testamos nuestra hipótesis en el contexto de la industria española de fondos de inversión. En concreto, analizamos cómo los fondos de inversión afiliados a un banco operan las acciones del banco matriz y mostramos que, consecuentemente con la hipótesis del sostenimiento de precios, los fondos de inversión filiales tienden a incrementar sus posiciones en las acciones del banco matriz después de una caída importante de su cotización.

This article shows the results of the Public Procurement Administrative Court’s performance from 2012 to 2014, mainly referred to opportunity and predictability on resolutions issuing process, supporting on statistics the evolution of the caseload as well as the time record of closing the procedures related to matters of Administrative Court’s jurisdiction which had a direct effect on the public procurement contracts’ efficiency.Additionally, we go through some Plenary Chamber Rulings, witch jointly with uniform interpretation criteria are the best mechanism to ensure equality in law application and thus institutional framework of Public Procurement Administrative Court. / En el presente artículo, se muestran los resultados de la gestión del Tribunal de Contrataciones del Estado en los años 2012 a 2014, referidos, principalmente, a la oportunidad y predictibilidad en la emisión de resoluciones.Apoyada de algunos datos estadísticos, se muestra la evolución de la carga procesal del Tribunal de Contrataciones y los tiempos de atención de los procedimientos de competencia del Tribunal y que inciden, directamente, en la eficiencia de la compra pública. Asimismo, se revisan algunos de los Acuerdos de Sala Plena emitidos, que junto a criterios de interpretación uniforme, son el mejor mecanismo para garantizar la igualdad en la aplicaciónde la ley y por tanto, la institucionalidad del Tribunal de Contrataciones del Estado.

Submitted by Martim Gross (martimgr@gmail.com) on 2012-03-09T00:20:19Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Investimento de Longo Prazo no Mercado Imobiliário Brasileiro.pdf: 457861 bytes, checksum: f147df0dfac47283b25696bcefb5ae01 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Gisele Isaura Hannickel (gisele.hannickel@fgv.br) on 2012-03-09T12:09:34Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Investimento de Longo Prazo no Mercado Imobiliário Brasileiro.pdf: 457861 bytes, checksum: f147df0dfac47283b25696bcefb5ae01 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2012-03-09T12:55:22Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Investimento de Longo Prazo no Mercado Imobiliário Brasileiro.pdf: 457861 bytes, checksum: f147df0dfac47283b25696bcefb5ae01 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-02-06 / This work presents the study of an investment portfolio of long-term equity fund, fixed income funds, real estate investment and risk-free rate. To forecast returns were used two distinct models and then estimated the portfolios with different degrees of risk aversion and different times to maturity. This work concludes that the real estate investment should have a sizeable stake in choosing the portfolio - which ranges between 20% and 28% - and estimates that the cost of not using real estate as an asset of the portfolio could be relevant - from 119 bp to 178 bp per year. The models are robust to changes in degrees of risk aversion and the statistical model adopted. / Este trabalho apresenta o estudo de um portfólio de investimento de longo prazo com fundos de renda variável, fundos de renda fixa, imóveis e taxa livre de risco. Para a previsão dos retornos foram utilizados dois modelos distintos e então estimados os portfólios com diferentes graus de aversão a risco e diferentes prazos de maturação. O trabalho conclui que o investimento imobiliário deve ter uma participação considerável na escolha do portfólio - o que varia entre 20% e 28% - e também que o custo de não utilizar o investimento imobiliário como ativo da carteira pode ser relevante – de 119 p.p. a 178 p.p. por ano. Os modelos são robustos a mudanças de grau de aversão a risco e ao modelo estatístico adotado.

The objective of this work was to analyze the relationship of the sea level pressure (SLP) of Tahiti and some meteorological variables over Brazil, with emphasis in the eastern coast of Northeastern Brazil (ENE). For this purpose, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data sets of SLP, rainfall rate, outgoing longwave (OLR), zonal and meridional wind components at 850 mb level, for a period that includes two phases of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), a cold phase (1948-1976) and a warm phase (1977-1998), were used. Firstly, the variables anomaly fields were elaborated. Then, a Tahiti SLP standardized index time series (IPT) was constructed and used for correlating with the above mentioned variables anomalies over Brazil. The software GrADS was employed to constructing the variables anomaly fields and the IPT linear correlation coefficient maps. The IPT spatial correlation was performed for each variable anomalies of the cold and the warm PDO phases separately. IPT and rainfall rate correlation coefficients values, ranging from 0,3 to 0,5 , with statistically significance level up to 99%, were found over the northeastern Amazon (Trombetas river watershed) and ENE. In general, the correlation coefficients presented higher values in the PDO warm phase and the IPT performed better than other climatic indices, such as SOI, MEI and Niño 3.4, with respect to rainfall rate over Brazil. Lag correlations were performed, with the meteorological variables lagging up to 5 months the IPT. The results suggested that the IPT is a good predictor of the rainfall rate 5 months in advance, particularly in northeastern Amazon. / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / O objetivo deste trabalho foi analisar a relação da pressão atmosférica ao nível do mar (PNM) de Tahiti com algumas variáveis meteorológicas sobre o Brasil, com ênfase na costa leste de Nordeste Brasileiro (ENE). Para esse propósito, foram utilizados conjuntos de dados de reanálises do NCEP/NCAR das variáveis PNM, taxa de precipitação, radiação de onda longa emergente (ROLE) e componentes zonal e meridional do vento ao nível de 850 mb para um período que compreende duas fases da Oscilação Decadal do Pacífico (ODP), suas fases fria (1948-1976) e quente (1977-1998). Primeiramente, foram elaborados os campos de anomalias dessas variáveis. Em seguida, foi construída uma série temporal do índice de PNM de Tahiti padronizado (IPT), que foi correlacionado com as variáveis acima mencionadas sobre o Brasil. O software GrADS foi usado para construir os mapas de coeficientes de correlação entre o IPT e as anomalias das variáveis. A correlação espacial foi feita para cada variável nas fases fria e quente da ODP separadamente. Foram encontrados valores dos coeficientes de correlação entre o IPT e a taxa de precipitação variando de 0,3 a 0,5, com nível de significância de até 99%, para o nordeste da Amazônia (bacia do rio Trombetas) e o ENE. De maneira geral, os coeficientes de correlação apresentaram valores maiores durante a fase quente da ODP e o IPT teve um desempenho melhor que os outros índices climáticos, como o IOS, IME e Niño 3.4 com relação à taxa de precipitação sobre o Brasil. Correlações atrasadas ( lag ) foram feitas, com as variáveis meteorológicas atrasadas de até 5 meses com relação ao IPT. Os resultados sugeriram que o IPT é um bom previsor da taxa de precipitação com até 5 meses de antecedência, particularmente sobre o nordeste da Amazônia.

abstract: This dissertation is a collection of three essays relating household financial obligations to asset prices. Financial obligations include both debt payments and other financial commitments. In the first essay, I investigate how household financial obligations affect the equity premium. I modify the standard Mehra-Prescott (1985) consumption-based asset pricing model to resolve the equity risk premium puzzle. I focus on two channels: the preference channel and the borrowing constraints channel. Under reasonable parameterizations, my model generates equity risk premiums similar in magnitudes to those observed in U.S. data. Furthermore, I show that relaxing the borrowing constraint shrinks the equity risk premium. In the Second essay, I test the predictability of excess market returns using the household financial obligations ratio. I show that deviations in the household financial obligations ratio from its long-run mean is a better forecaster of future market returns than alternative prediction variables. The results remain significant using either quarterly or annual data and are robust to out-of-sample tests. In the third essay, I investigate whether the risk associated with household financial obligations is an economy-wide risk with the potential to explain fluctuations in the cross-section of stock returns. The multifactor model I propose, is a modification of the capital asset pricing model that includes the financial obligations ratio as a ``conditioning down" variable. The key finding is that there is an aggregate hedging demand for securities that pay off in periods characterized by higher levels of financial obligations ratios. The consistent pricing of financial obligations risk with a negative risk premium suggests that the financial obligations ratio acts as a state variable. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Economics 2017

Prior studies have shown that returns exhibit certain predictable patterns that are inconsistent with the mainstream finance theory. In this thesis, I explore the behaviour of returns following three different types of market events with a particular focus on behavioural and non-behavioural factors that are attributable to the predictability of post-event returns. This thesis consists of three self-contained empirical essays. The first essay examines the information role of large S&P500 futures trades (commercial, noncommercial, dealers, asset managers, and hedge funds) in shaping future index returns. I find that commercial firms’ net trading level appears positively correlated with future index returns but the relationship is not stable across time. Based on more recent data, hedge funds appear superior in terms of access to information and/or trading ability but this advantage is only preserved at high frequency. Therefore, the current weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report - published with a three-day delay - prevents timely public access to this type of information. Also, trading signals based on two of the more popular position-based sentiment indicators do not produce significant average returns. Overall, this calls into question the reliability of COT-based trading signals used by market professionals. The second essay studies the impacts of short sellers’ trading in shaping the behaviour of stock returns following extreme price moves using data from stock market in mainland China where short sales were initially prohibited. Extreme price moves occurring under non-prohibitive/prohibitive short-sale constraints are defined as shortable/non-shortable events. I find shortable events exhibit less post-event price drift/reversals than non-shortable ones, indicating an increase in the efficiency of stock prices reacting to unexpected events. Further analysis of short sellers’ trading activities on the price event days suggests that they are successful in trading informed price shocks but not in trading uninformed ones. Finally, I find evidence of massive short-covering that amplifies price shocks. The third essay investigates investors’ reaction to stock market rumours using data from China where listed companies are required to clarify rumours appearing in the media. I find that post-clarification abnormal returns exhibit continuation of pre-clarification momentum for rumours that are not denied by the listed companies and reversals for those which are denied. These results suggest that investors are unable to distinguish the reliable rumours from the false ones, as they under-react to rumours containing material information and over-react to those without. Further regression analyses on post-clarification abnormal returns using various subsamples of rumour events show that investors respond more efficiently to rumours when they are more informed about news topics or the rumoured companies.

Background: Primary Healthcare Centers [PHC] represent the first healthcare contact that patients have, unless they are critically ill or their state is life-threathening. Distric nurse´s work in PHC requires preparedness to meet people in different ages and varying cultural and ethnical backgrounds. This preparedness includes an independent and person-centred workway. The study´s theoretical framework therefore proceeds from person-centred care. Challenging encounters occur in district nurse´s meetings with patients. The concept complex healthcare encounters exists in the competence description of the district nurses and in educational regulatory contexts. Despite of this, there is no general definition of the concept and what it is characterized by. Aim: The aim of this study is to describe district nurse´s experiences of complex healthcare encounters. Method: A qualitative, descriptive, inductive content analysis is used as the analysis method. Six focusgroup-interviews were contucted with nurses and districs nurses working in PHC. Results: District nurse´s experiences of complex healthcare encounters contains to balance unpredictable encounters with predictable organizational terms. This is described as: To meet people with varying lifesituations and To care professionally within organizational conditions. Conclusion: District nurses experience complex healthcare encounters characterized by the coexistence of unpredictable meetings with people and predictable organizational terms. By developing the knowledge about complex healthcare encounters, district nurses can streamline the care simultaneously as the mission of the district nurse can be explicated. / Bakgrund: Vårdcentraler är vårdsökandes första vårdinstans om inte vårdbehovet är akut eller livshotande. Distriktssköterskors arbete på vårdcentraler medför beredskap att möta människor i olika åldrar och med varierande kulturella och etniska bakgrunder. Denna beredskap inrymmer ett självständigt och personcentrerat arbetssätt. Examensarbetets teoretiska referensram utgår därmed från personcentrerad vård. Utmanande vårdsituationer uppstår i distriktssköterskors möten med vårdsökande människor. Begreppet komplexa vårdsituationer förekommer i distriktssköterskors kompetensbeskrivande och utbildningsreglerande dokument. Dock saknas en gemensam bild av vad detta begrepp karaktäriseras av. Syfte: Syftet är att beskriva distriktssköterskors erfarenheter av komplexa vårdsituationer på vårdcentral. Metod: En kvalitativ, deskriptiv innehållsanalys med en induktiv ansats har används som analysmetod. Sex fokusgruppsintervjuer med distriktssköterskor och sjuksköterskor som arbetar på vårdcentral har genomförts. Resultat: Distriktssköterskors erfarenheter av komplexa vårdsituationer på vårdcentral innehåller att balansera mellan oförutsägbara möten med människor och förutsägbara organisatoriska villkor. Detta beskrivs som: Att möta människor i varierande livssituationer och Att vårda professionellt med givna organisatoriska förutsättningar. Slutsats: Distriktssköterskorna erfar komplexa vårdsituationer som karaktäriseras av att oförutsägbara möten med människor och förutsägbara organisatoriska villkor samexisterar. Genom kunskapsutveckling om komplexa vårdsituationer kan distriktssköterskor effektivisera vården samtidigt som distriktssköterskors uppdrag förtydligas.

Les caractéristiques des fluctuations des concentrations de polluants dans un environnement intérieur normalement occupé dépendent fortement de plusieurs paramètres, en particulier des occupants et de leurs activités et comportement, qui altèrent de manière considérable la nature statistique de leur variabilité temporelle. Ces fluctuations sont rarement disponibles et décrites dans la littérature. La mise à disposition de mesures en continu de la concentration en formaldéhyde et en particules (de 0,35 à 20 µm de diamètre) dans l’air d’un environnement de bureau et d’une maison expérimentale sur plusieurs mois avec un pas de temps fin (entre 1 min et 1 heure) a permis d’engager une réflexion sur la nature de ces fluctuations et leur prévisibilité. L’objectif de la thèse se décline en trois axes de recherche : (i) la caractérisation des fluctuations des concentrations des polluants cible ; (ii) la mise en évidence des sources de variabilité de ces fluctuations et (iii) la prévision des concentrations de ces polluants. Le premier axe concerne la détermination des caractéristiques communes partagées par les différents polluants. Le deuxième axe porte, à l'aide des approches par séparation aveugle des sources, sur l'estimation des déterminants des sources de variabilité. Le troisième axe est consacré à la prévision des fluctuations de concentration des polluants. L'analyse des séries temporelles pour ce type de données (hautes fréquences) doit prendre en compte l’échelle de temps sur laquelle évoluent plusieurs microstructures. Plusieurs outils ont été employés : l'analyse spectrale (dépendance à long terme par la mesure fractale et la statistique R/S), la mesure de l’oméga-prédictibilité, ainsi que la décomposition des séries en composantes latentes par STL (seasonal trend decomposition using Loess), SSA (singular spectrum analysis) et SBD (spectral band decomposition).L'identification des sources de variabilité de particules a été abordée par les méthodes de séparation aveugle des sources basées sur une factorisation matricielle en profils et contributions, sous contrainte statistique d'indépendance (ACI) ou de non-négativité (NNMF ou PMF). Les factorisations ont été appliquées à la matrice constituée des séries temporelles de différentes gammes de taille des particules. Certains profils ou contributions des sources ont pu été interprétés grâce aux variables exogènes "traceurs" de certaines sources (comme le CO2 indicateur de la présence de la source occupants).Concernant la prévision des concentrations de polluants, le choix des modèles a été basé sur la structure de la série temporelle, mise en évidence lors de l’étape de caractérisation. On constate de meilleures performances de prévisions sur la série ayant subi un prétraitement statistique de décomposition STL, SSA ou SBD. Plusieurs types de modèles stochastiques (linéaires ou non linéaires) ont été appliqués ensuite à ces composantes et le résultat final de la prévision est donné par leur combinaison. La caractéristique de non-linéarité qui apparaît sous forme de changements abrupts de concentration causée en grande partie par la manipulation des ouvrants et qui se greffe sur l'évolution régulière du système dynamique mérite un traitement spécial. Un nouveau type de modèles de prévision a été développé pour répondre aux exigences de la nature des données hautes fréquences présentant ce type de non linéarité. Ce modèle associe une étape de décomposition des séries en bandes spectrales (SBD) couplée avec une étape de modélisation par des modèles autorégressifs à seuil (TAR) ou par la dynamique du chaos : FFT-(TAR/Chaos).Les résultats montrent que le prétraitement par décomposition en bandes spectrales ou STL améliore sensiblement la prévision des concentrations de formaldéhyde et des particules fines jusqu’à un horizon de 10 heures pour le formaldéhyde (pas de temps 1 minute) et de 1 à 4 jours pour les particules selon leur taille (pas de temps horaire) / The time fluctuation features of particulate concentrations in a real occupied indoor environment are strongly dependent of several parameters and in particular the occupation and occupants’ activities and behaviors. These parameters considerably alter the statistical variability of the time series dynamics. These fluctuations are rarely available and described in the literature. These types of fluctuations are rarely available and described in the literature. The availability of continuous measurements of concentrations of formaldehyde and particulate matter (from 0.35 to 20 µm of diameter) in an indoor environment (office and a test house) during several months with a fine time resolution (from 1 min to 1 hour) permitted to initiate a process of reflection on the nature of these fluctuations and their predictability. The aim of the thesis follows three main axis of research: (i) characterizing indoor environment pollutant concentrations variability; (ii) revealing the sources of variability of these fluctuations and (iii) forecasting the pollutant concentrations in a real indoor environment. The first axis concerns the determination of the common features shared by the different pollutants. The second axis focuses on the sources variability estimating using a Blind Source Separation (BSS) approach. Lastly, the third axis focuses on the forecasting of pollutant concentrations. The time series analysis for this type of data (high frequency) should take into account the time scale on which microstructures evolve. Several tools were employed, such as the spectral analysis (long-range dependency by fractal dimension measures and R/S statistic), the omega-predictability, as well as the time series decomposition into latent components by STL (Seasonal Trend Decomposition using Loess), SSA (Singular Spectrum Analysis) and SBD (Spectral Band Decomposition).The identification of the sources of particles concentrations is developed using BSS based methods which are based on a matrix factorization as profiles and contributions under a statistical independence constraint (ICA) or a non-negativity constraint (NNMF or PMF). The factorizations were applied to the matrix of the time series of different particle size bins. Some profiles or source contributions could be interpreted using exogenous variables as fingerprints of some sources (such as CO2 concentrations used as indicator of the “occupation”).Concerning the pollutant concentrations forecasting, the model selection was made in agreement with the time series structures, highlighted in the characterization stage. One can notice better performances forecasts when using the series having been preprocessed by decomposition: STL, SSA or decomposition in spectral bands (based Transform Fourier), SBD. Several types of stochastic models (linear or nonlinear) were then applied to these components and the final forecast result is given by their combination. A special type of nonlinearities involving a special treatment is the abrupt concentration changes in time series concentrations due mainly to windows manipulation and graft on the regular evolution of the dynamic system. A new type of forecast models has been developed in adequacy with the requirements of the nature of high-frequency data. This model combine spectral band decomposition step (SBD) coupled with a modeling stage based on autoregressive switching threshold model (TAR) or chaos dynamic: FFT- (TAR / Chaos).The results show that the pretreatment by spectral band decomposition or STL improves significantly formaldehyde and fine particles concentrations forecast on 10-hour horizon for formaldehyde (sampled every minute) and on a horizon of 1 to 4 days for the particles (sampled every hour), depending on their size bins

This diploma thesis evaluates out-of-sample predictive ability of exchange rate models. The first part of the thesis summarizes existing empirical findings about exchange rate predictability and describes exchange rate models chosen to be evaluated. The second part of the thesis evaluates predictive ability of purchasing power parity, uncovered interest parity, monetary model and Taylor rule model. The exchange rate models are evaluated on CZK/EUR and CZK/USD currency pairs. The analysis is made using quarterly data from 1999 to 2013, while 2009 to 2013 period is reserved for forecast evaluation. The predictive ability of exchange rate models is evaluated in one quarter, one year and three years horizons. The exchange rate models are specified in first differences and estimated by ordinary least squares method. The forecasts are made using rolling regression. The exchange rate models are evaluated using RMSE, Theil's U, CW test and direction of change criterion. The diploma thesis concludes with description of own empirical findings.

La plus grande partie de l’Afrique orientale présente un climat aride à semi-aride, et une forte variabilité spatio-temporelle des pluies. Les sécheresses sont courantes dans cette région, et persistent souvent sur plusieurs années consécutives, précédées ou suivies par des inondations majeures. La plupart des modes de vie et des activités socio-économiques restent néanmoins dépendants des précipitations, avec des effets extrêmement dommageables en périodes d’extrêmes climatiques. Il a été montré qu’un seul événement extrême suffisait à inverser la croissance économique nationale plusieurs années d’affilée. Aucun développement durable ne peut donc être réalisé en Afrique de l’Est sans une prise en compte effective de l’information climatique dans les politiques, les plans et les programmes de développement. De nombreuses études antérieures sur la région ont été consacrées à la variabilité des pluies aux échelles saisonnière, annuelle et décadaire. Peu de recherches ont porté sur l’échelle intra-saisonnière, qui est déterminante pour la plupart des applications agricoles. Cette étude vise à combler cette lacune, en examinant la structure de la saison des pluies en termes de répartition des épisodes secs et pluvieux, et la façon dont cette répartition varie dans l’espace et le temps, à l’échelle interannuelle à travers l’Afrique est-équatoriale. Des modèles de prévision destinés à être utilisés dans des systèmes d’alerte précoce, en vue d’atténuer les risques liés au climat, sont en outre développés. Les objectifs spécifiques de l’étude incluent : un diagnostic des différents aspects de la répartition des épisodes secs et pluvieux, dans leur variation interannuelle ; une analyse des relations entre les aspects de cette répartition ainsi identifiés et les principaux champs climatiques d’échelle large qui gouvernent le climat global ; une évaluation de la prévisibilité des différents aspects des épisodes secs et pluvieux pour l’amélioration des systèmes d’alerte précoce de la région.Plusieurs bases de données couvrant une période de 40 ans (1961-2000) ont été utilisées. Elles comprennent des séries de précipitations journalières mesurées par pluviomètre dans les trois pays d’Afrique orientale (Kenya, Ouganda, Tanzanie) ; les températures de surface marine (SST) du Hadley Centre ; des données de réanalyses et des stations de radiosondages de Nairobi (Kenya) et de Bangui (République Centrafricaine). Des indices d’El Niño-Oscillation Australe (ENSO), du Dipôle de l’Océan Indien et de gradients de SST, constituant des prédicteurs SST prédéfinis, ont été également utilisés [...] / Most of Eastern Africa has arid and semi-arid climate with high space-time variability in rainfall. The droughts are very common in this region, and often persist for several years, preceded or followed by extreme floods. Most of the livelihoods and socio-economic activities however remain rain-dependent leading to severe negative impacts during the periods of occurrence of climate extremes. It has been noted that one extreme event was capable of reversing national economic growth made over a period of several years. Thus no sustainable development can be attained in eastern Africa without effective mainstreaming of climate information in the development policies, plans and programmes. Many past studies in the region have focused on rainfall variability at seasonal, annual and decadal scales. Very little work has been done at intraseasonal timescale that is paramount to most agricultural applications. This study aims at filling this research gap, by investigating the structure of rainfall season in terms of the distribution of wet and dry spells and how this distribution varies in space and time at interannual time scale over Equatorial Eastern Africa. Prediction models for use in the early warning systems aimed at climate risk reduction were finally developed. The specific objectives of the study include, delineate and diagnose the some aspects of the distribution of the wet and dry spells at interannual timescale; investigate the linkages between the aspects of the distribution of wet and dry spells identified and dominant large scale climate fields that drive the global climate; and assess the predictability of the various aspects of wet and dry spells for the improvement of the use in the early warning systems of the region.Several datasets spanning a period of 40 years (1961 – 2000) were used. The data included gauged daily rainfall amount for the three Eastern Africa countries namely Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania; Hadley Centre Sea Surface Temperature (SST); re-analysis data and radiosonde observations from Nairobi (Kenya) and Bangui (Central Africa Republic) upper air stations. The indices of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole and SST gradients which constituted the predefined predictors were also used [...]