Detection systems are widely used in industry. Designers, operators and users of these systems need to choose an appropriate design, based on the intended usage and the operating environment. The purpose of this research is to analyze the effect of various system design variables (controllable) and system parameters (uncontrollable) on the performance of detection systems. To optimize system performance one must manage the tradeoff between two errors that can occur. A False Alarm occurs if the detection system falsely indicates a target is present and a False Clear occurs if the detection system falsely fails to indicate a target is present. Given a particular detection system and a pre-specified false clear (or false alarm) rate, there is a minimal false alarm (or false clear) rate that can be achieved. Earlier research has developed methods that address this false alarm, false clear tradeoff problem (FAFCT) by formulating a Neyman-Pearson hypothesis problem, which can be solved as a Knapsack problem. The objective of this research is to develop guidelines that can be of help in designing detection systems. For example, what system design variables must be implemented to achieve a certain false clear standard for a parallel 2-sensor detection system for Salmonella detection? To meet this objective, an experimental design is constructed and an analysis of variance is performed. Computational results are obtained using the FAFCT-methodology and the results are presented and analyzed using ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) curves and an analysis of variance. The research shows that sample size (i.e., size of test data set used to estimate the distribution of sensor responses) has very little effect on the FAFCT compared to other factors. The analysis clearly shows that correlation has the most influence on the FAFCT. Negatively correlated sensor responses outperform uncorrelated and positively correlated sensor responses with large margins, especially for strict FC-standards (FC-standard is defined as the maximum allowed False Clear rate). Suggestions for future research are also included. FC-standard is the second most influential design variable followed by grid size. / Master of Science

Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-02T20:06:04Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 3137.pdf: 2333509 bytes, checksum: 17d0f072d443263a81b8c895dc712a3b (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010-03-05 / Financiadora de Estudos e Projetos / In this work, we brie_y introduce the concepts of long-term survival analysis. We dedicated ourselves exclusively to the standard mixture cure model from Boag (1949) and Berkson & Gage (1952), showing its deduction and presenting the imunes probability function, which is taken from the model itself and we investigated the identi_ability issues of the mixture model. Motivated by the possibility that a experiment design can lead to a biased sample selection, we studied the weighted probability distributions, more speci_cally the weighted exponential distributions family and its properties. We studied two distributions that belong to this family; namely, the length biased exponential distribution and the beta exponential distribution. Using the GAMLSS package in R, we made some simulation studies intending to evidence the bias that occur when the possibility of a weighted sample is ignored. / Neste trabalho apresentamos brevemente os conceitos que de_nem a análise de sobreviv ência de longa duração. Dedicamo-nos exclusivamente ao modelo de mistura padrão de Boag (1949) e Berkson & Gage (1952), sendo que nos preocupamos com sua formulação, apresentamos a função probabilidade de imunes, que é derivada do próprio modelo e investigamos a questão da identi_cabilidade. Motivados pela possibilidade de que um planejamento experimental leve a uma seleção viciada da amostra, estudamos as distribui ções ponderadas de probabilidade, mais especi_camente a família das distribuições exponenciais ponderadas e suas propriedades. Estudamos duas distribuições pertencentes a essa família, a distribuição exponencial length biased e a distribuição beta exponencial. Fazendo uso do pacote GAMLSS em R, realizamos alguns estudos de simulação com o intuito de evidenciar o erro cometido quando se ignora a possibilidade de que a amostra seja proveniente de uma distribuição ponderada.

A new method, probability distribution of diffusivities (time scaled square displacements between succeeding video frames), was developed to analyze single molecule tracking (SMT) experiments. This method was then applied to SMT experiments on ultrathin liquid tetrakis(2-ethylhexoxy)silane (TEHOS) films on Si wafer with 100 nm thermally grown oxide, and on thin semectic liquid crystal films. Spatial maps of diffusivities from SMT experiments on 220 nm thick semectic liquid crystal films reveal structure related dynamics. The SMT experiments on ultrathin TEHOS films were complemented by fluorescence correlation spectroscopy (FCS). The observed strongly heterogeneous single molecule dynamics within those films can be explained by a three-layer model consisting of (i) dye molecules adsorbed to the substrate, (ii) slowly diffusing molecules in the laterally heterogeneous near-surface region of 1 - 2 molecular diameters, and (iii) freely diffusing dye molecules in the upper region of the film. FCS and SMT experiments reveal a strong influence of substrate heterogeneity on SM dynamics. Thereby chemisorption to substrate surface silanols plays an important role. Vertical mean first passage times (mfpt) in those films are below 1 µs. This appears as fast component in FCS autocorrelation curves, which further contain a contribution from lateral diffusion and from adsorption events. Therefore, the FCS curves are approximated by a tri-component function, which contains an exponential term related to the mfpt, the correlation function for translational diffusion and a stretched exponential term for the broad distribution of adsorption events. Lateral diffusion coefficients obtained by FCS on 10 nm thick TEHOS films, thereby, are effective diffusion coefficients from dye transients in the focal area. They strongly depend on the substrate heterogeneity. Variation of the frame times for the acquisition of SMT experiments in steps of 20 ms from 20 ms to 200 ms revealed a strong dependence of the corresponding probability distributions of diffusivities on time, in particular in the range between 20 ms and 100 ms. This points to average dwell times of the dye molecules in at least one type of the heterogeneous regions (e.g. on and above silanol clusters) in the range of few tens of milliseconds. Furthermore, time series of SM spectra from Nile Red in 25 nm thick poly-n-alkyl-methacrylate (PnAMA) films were studied. In analogy to translational diffusion, spectral diffusion (shifts in energetic positions of SM spectra) can be studied by probability distributions of spectral diffusivities, i.e. time scaled square energetic displacements. Simulations were run and analyzed to study contributions from noise and fitting uncertainty to spectral diffusion. Furthermore the effect of spectral jumps during acquisition of a SM spectrum was investigated. Probability distributions of spectral diffusivites of Nile Red probing vitreous PnAMA films reveal a two-level system. In contrast, such probability distributions obtained from Nile Red within a 25 nm thick poly-n-butylmethacrylate film around glass transition and in the melt state, display larger spectral jumps. Moreover, for longer alkyl side chains a solvent shift to higher energies is observed, which supports the idea of nanophase separation within those polymers.

Recurring drought conditions have always been an endemic feature of climate in South Africa, limiting maize development and production. However, recent projections of the future climate by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change suggest that due to an increase of atmospheric greenhouse gases, the frequency and severity of droughts will increase in drought-prone areas, mostly in subtropical climates. This has raised major concern for the agricultural sector, particularly the vulnerable small-scale farmers who merely rely on rain for crop production. Farmers in the Luvuvhu River catchment are not an exception, as this area is considered economically poor, whereby a significant number of people are dependent on rain-fed farming for subsistence. This study was therefore conducted in order to improve agricultural productivity in the area and thus help in the development of measures to secure livelihoods of those vulnerable small-scale farmers. Two drought indices viz. Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI) were used to quantify drought. A 120-day maturing maize crop was considered and three consecutive planting dates were staggered based on the average start of the rainy season. Frequencies and probabilities during each growing stage of maize were calculated based on the results of the two indices. Temporal variations of drought severity from 1975 to 2015 were evaluated and trends were analyzed using the non-parametric Spearman’s Rank Correlation test at α (0.05) significance level. For assessing climate change impact on droughts, SPEI and WRSI were computed using an output from downscaled projections of CSIRO Mark3.5 under the SRES A2 emission scenario for the period 1980/81 – 2099/100. The frequency of drought was calculated and the difference of SPEI and WRSI means between future climate periods and the base period were assessed using the independent t-test at α (0.10) significance level in STATISTICA software. The study revealed that planting a 120-day maturing maize crop in December would pose a high risk of frequent severe-extreme droughts during the flowering to the grain-filling stage at Levubu, Lwamondo, Thohoyandou, and Tshiombo; while planting in October could place crops at a lower risk of reduced yield and even total crop failure. In contrast, stations located in the low-lying plains of the catchment (Punda Maria, Sigonde, and Pafuri) were exposed to frequent moderate droughts following planting in October, with favorable conditions noted following the December planting date. Further analysis on the performance of the crop under various drought conditions revealed that WRSI values corresponding to more intense drought conditions were detected during the December planting date for all stations. Moreover, at Punda Maria, Sigonde and Pafuri, it was observed that extreme drought (WRSI <50) occurred once in five seasons, regardless of the planting date. Temporal analysis on historical droughts in the area indicated that there had been eight agricultural seasons subjected to extreme widespread droughts resulting in total crop failure i.e. 1983/84, 1988/89, 1991/92, 1993/94, 2001/02, 2002/03, 2004/05 and 2014/15. Results of Spearman’s rank correlation test revealed weak increasing drought trends at Thohoyandou (ρ = of 0.5 for WRSI) and at Levubu and Lwamondo (ρ = of 0.4 for SPEI), with no significant trends at the other stations. The study further revealed that climate change would enhance the severity of drought across the catchment. This was statistically significant (at 10% significance level) for the near-future and intermediate-future climates, relative to the base period. Drought remains a threat to rain-fed maize production in the Luvuvhu River catchment area of South Africa. In order to mitigate the possible effects of droughts under climate change, optimal planting dates were recommended for each region. The use of seasonal forecasts during drought seasons would also be useful for local rain-fed maize growers especially in regions where moisture is available for a short period during the growing season. It was further recommended that the Government ensure proper support such as effective early warning systems and inputs to the farmers. Moreover, essential communication between scientists, decision makers, and the farmers can help in planning and decision making ahead of and during the occurrence of droughts. / Agriculture, Animal Health and Human Ecology / M. Sc. (Agriculture)

A new method, probability distribution of diffusivities (time scaled square displacements between succeeding video frames), was developed to analyze single molecule tracking (SMT) experiments. This method was then applied to SMT experiments on ultrathin liquid tetrakis(2-ethylhexoxy)silane (TEHOS) films on Si wafer with 100 nm thermally grown oxide, and on thin semectic liquid crystal films. Spatial maps of diffusivities from SMT experiments on 220 nm thick semectic liquid crystal films reveal structure related dynamics. The SMT experiments on ultrathin TEHOS films were complemented by fluorescence correlation spectroscopy (FCS). The observed strongly heterogeneous single molecule dynamics within those films can be explained by a three-layer model consisting of (i) dye molecules adsorbed to the substrate, (ii) slowly diffusing molecules in the laterally heterogeneous near-surface region of 1 - 2 molecular diameters, and (iii) freely diffusing dye molecules in the upper region of the film. FCS and SMT experiments reveal a strong influence of substrate heterogeneity on SM dynamics. Thereby chemisorption to substrate surface silanols plays an important role. Vertical mean first passage times (mfpt) in those films are below 1 µs. This appears as fast component in FCS autocorrelation curves, which further contain a contribution from lateral diffusion and from adsorption events. Therefore, the FCS curves are approximated by a tri-component function, which contains an exponential term related to the mfpt, the correlation function for translational diffusion and a stretched exponential term for the broad distribution of adsorption events. Lateral diffusion coefficients obtained by FCS on 10 nm thick TEHOS films, thereby, are effective diffusion coefficients from dye transients in the focal area. They strongly depend on the substrate heterogeneity. Variation of the frame times for the acquisition of SMT experiments in steps of 20 ms from 20 ms to 200 ms revealed a strong dependence of the corresponding probability distributions of diffusivities on time, in particular in the range between 20 ms and 100 ms. This points to average dwell times of the dye molecules in at least one type of the heterogeneous regions (e.g. on and above silanol clusters) in the range of few tens of milliseconds. Furthermore, time series of SM spectra from Nile Red in 25 nm thick poly-n-alkyl-methacrylate (PnAMA) films were studied. In analogy to translational diffusion, spectral diffusion (shifts in energetic positions of SM spectra) can be studied by probability distributions of spectral diffusivities, i.e. time scaled square energetic displacements. Simulations were run and analyzed to study contributions from noise and fitting uncertainty to spectral diffusion. Furthermore the effect of spectral jumps during acquisition of a SM spectrum was investigated. Probability distributions of spectral diffusivites of Nile Red probing vitreous PnAMA films reveal a two-level system. In contrast, such probability distributions obtained from Nile Red within a 25 nm thick poly-n-butylmethacrylate film around glass transition and in the melt state, display larger spectral jumps. Moreover, for longer alkyl side chains a solvent shift to higher energies is observed, which supports the idea of nanophase separation within those polymers.