Property market forecasts play a crucial role in modern real estate valuation methodologies and, consequently, flawed forecasts can have adverse impacts on the accuracy of valuations. This thesis identifies property industry inconsistencies in the formulation and application of office rent forecasts adopted in discounted cash flow (DCF) studies used to assess the value of commercial properties and the viability of proposed projects. Existing research on commercial property cycles and office property market modelling is examined in order to identify the dominant market drivers adopted by researchers. Forecasting techniques are also explored towards specifying space and rent models for the Brisbane CBD office market using the perceived dominant drivers as explanatory variables. Surveys of property valuers and developers are undertaken to underpin the selection of these variables. The implications of varying rent forecasts applied in DCF based valuation assessments are tested through the use of a case study involving four Brisbane office buildings. Innovative research is conducted through adopting geographic information system supported land use and historical valuation studies to delineate market precincts within the Brisbane CBD. The rent model is then re-estimated using precinct based office rent data to allow the generation of forecasts for the individual precincts. Out-of-sample accuracy test results for the precinct forecasts are compared with the results produced by the model specified using whole-of-city data. The literature reviews, surveys and model testing determine a relatively consistent range of dominant explanatory variables applicable to office markets. The case study, in a local context, confirms that varying forecasts do have a significant impact on property valuations. Tests of the forecast results generated by the Brisbane CBD model provide some evidence that more plausible office rent forecasts stem from the use of market models as compared with solely applying professional judgement based forecasts. Subject to data availability limitations, the precinct based rent model is found to produce rent forecasts superior to those generated by the whole-of-city model. Finally, the thesis makes a range of industry recommendations towards enhancing forecasts and recommendations are also made for potential future research projects.

Cette thèse qui porte sur les marchés de bureaux se présente sous la forme de trois articles. Le premier a pour objectif d'identifier les déterminants persistants et transitoires de l'évolution des loyers de bureaux franciliens, à partir d'analyses de propriétés de co-intégration et de ruptures structurelles. Le second article porte sur l'étude des interactions entre les dynamiques des cinq sous-marchés qui composent le marché des bureaux de Central Paris. Plus précisément, la méthodologie adoptée permet de définir la nature des interactions en termes de substituabilité, complémentarité ou indépendance entre sous-marchés. Le troisième article contribue à l'étude du marché de l'immobilier d'un point de vue financier en analysant le' déterminants du taux de rendement du marché des bureaux au Royaume-Uni. Un modèle non ­linéaire à changement de régime permet de mesurer l'impact relatif de ces déterminants sur le taux de rendement en fonction de l'environnement monétaire et financier. / This thesis which focuses on office markets is composed of three papers. The first one aims at identifying the long-run and short-run determinants of the Greater Paris office market, combining cointegration and structural break approaches. The second paper focuses on the interactions between the dynamics of the five submarkets of the Central Paris area. The methodology used allows determining precisely the nature of the interrelations between the submarkets in terms of complementary, substitutability or independence. Finally, the third article contributes to financial analysis of the real estate field by investigating the determinants of yield in the UK office market. A nonlinear regime switching mode! permits to assess the relative impact of these determinants on yields depending on the overall monetary and financial conditions and notably liquidity conditions.

Submitted by Renata Lopes (renatasil82@gmail.com) on 2017-09-19T11:32:47Z No. of bitstreams: 1 queleningridlopes.pdf: 4644346 bytes, checksum: 468ae4a8eb60c83ec032f7b5920626d5 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Adriana Oliveira (adriana.oliveira@ufjf.edu.br) on 2017-09-22T14:41:42Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 queleningridlopes.pdf: 4644346 bytes, checksum: 468ae4a8eb60c83ec032f7b5920626d5 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-09-22T14:41:43Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 queleningridlopes.pdf: 4644346 bytes, checksum: 468ae4a8eb60c83ec032f7b5920626d5 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-08-25 / CAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / O presente trabalho investiga o processo de implantação e expansão da atividade agrícola em Minas Gerais no período de auge da economia mineradora e finais do mesmo (1711-1779) a partir do mercado. Nesse sentido, nosso objetivo é analisar o mercado de bens rurais, extrativos e urbanos do termo de Mariana, buscando ao mesmo tempo entender o processo de conformação e evolução da estrutura agrária por meio deste mercado observando as transformações ocorridas no processo de mudança da base econômica mineradora para a agricultura mercantil de subsistência. Para tanto, consideramos a atividade agrária como sendo capaz de conformar um mercado de terras que segue no mesmo passo a expansão da exploração aurífera neste recorte espacial. Construiremos nossa análise por meio das escrituras de compra e venda de propriedades rurais, urbanas e extrativas, nossa principal base documental. Através da análise desta documentação apreenderemos o funcionamento e as dinâmicas desse mercado. Observaremos especialmente os processos que moveram a atividade agrícola e a mineração, buscando compreender seus reflexos na economia regional. Objetivamos também apreender e analisar a forma como os agentes sociais desse mercado se relacionavam com as mudanças ocorridas em sua dinâmica econômica. Por isso, as várias facetas das intenções e das interações sociais são aspectos tratados sob o ponto de vista da formação das sociedades de investimento em negócios (comércio), na produção rural e/ou mineradora, da formação dos preços dos bens desse mercado de bens imóveis do termo de Mariana. / The present work investigates the process of implementation and expansion of agricultural activity in Minas Gerais during the period that comprises the peak of the mining economy until the end of it (1711-177), from the market perspective. In this sense, our goal is to analyze the market of goods (rural, extractive and urban) from the Mariana region, seeking at the same time understand the process of conformation and evolution of the agrarian structure through this market observing the transformations occurred in the changing process of the economic base of mining to mercantile agriculture of subsistence. Therefore, we consider that the agrarian activity was able to settle a land market that followed at the same pace the expansion of gold mining in this region. We will build our analysis through the scriptures of purchase and selling of rural, extractive and urban properties, which is our main documentary base. Through analysis of this documentation we will analyze the functioning and dynamics of this market. Especially we observe the processes that moved the agriculture and mining, trying to understand its impact on the regional economy. We also aim to seize and examine how the social agents in this market were related to the changes in their economic dynamics.Therefore, the various facets of intentions and social interactions are aspects dealt with from the point of view of the formation of business societies (trade), in rural and / or mining production, as well in the prices formation in that estate goods market of Mariana.

The objective of the diploma thesis is to explore the ways and methods of valuation applied in Hungary. Thesis demonstrates historical evolution of property market in Hungary and describes the current market supported by data and graphs. The process of expert evidence preparation is characterized, as well. The result of the thesis is an example of a complex expert evidence for property type flat in accordance with Hungarian statutory.

The Swedish real estate market has been digitalized over the past decade with the current practice being to post your real estate advertisement online. A question that has arisen is how a seller can optimize their public listing to maximize the selling premium. This paper analyzes the use of three machine learning methods to solve this problem: Linear Regression, Decision Tree Regressor and Random Forest Regressor. The aim is to retrieve information regarding how certain attributes contribute to the premium value. The dataset used contains apartments sold within the years of 2014-2018 in the Östermalm / Djurgården district in Stockholm, Sweden. The resulting models returned an R2-value of approx. 0.26 and Mean Absolute Error of approx. 0.06. While the models were not accurate regarding prediction of premium, information was still able to be extracted from the models. In conclusion, a high amount of views and a publication made in April provide the best conditions for an advertisement to reach a high selling premium. The seller should try to keep the amount of days since publication lower than 15.5 days and avoid publishing on a Tuesday. / Den svenska bostadsmarknaden har blivit alltmer digitaliserad under det senaste årtiondet med nuvarande praxis att säljaren publicerar sin bostadsannons online. En fråga som uppstår är hur en säljare kan optimera sin annons för att maximera budpremie. Denna studie analyserar tre maskininlärningsmetoder för att lösa detta problem: Linear Regression, Decision Tree Regressor och Random Forest Regressor. Syftet är att utvinna information om de signifikanta attribut som påverkar budpremien. Det dataset som använts innehåller lägenheter som såldes under åren 2014-2018 i Stockholmsområdet Östermalm / Djurgården. Modellerna som togs fram uppnådde ett R²-värde på approximativt 0.26 och Mean Absolute Error på approximativt 0.06. Signifikant information kunde extraheras from modellerna trots att de inte var exakta i att förutspå budpremien. Sammanfattningsvis skapar ett stort antal visningar och en publicering i april de bästa förutsättningarna för att uppnå en hög budpremie. Säljaren ska försöka hålla antal dagar sedan publicering under 15.5 dagar och undvika att publicera på tisdagar.

Syfte: Studien syftar till att visa hur och varför volymen börsnoteringar av fastighetsbolag varierat över tid och hur denna volym har påverkats av det ekonomiska klimatet. Metod: Studien baseras på en kvantitativ metod. Multipel regressionsanalys tillämpas där makroekonomiska faktorers förklaringsvärde för volymen börsintroduktioner av fastighetsbolag undersöks. Teoretisk referensram: Det teoretiska ramverk som används i denna studie har sin primära utgångspunkt i tidigare forskning gjorda på börsnoteringar. Vidare har The Fisher Di Pasquale Wheaton model använts för att få en djupare förståelse för fastighetsbranschens mekanismer. Kopplingen till aktiemarknaden har sitt ursprung i Den effektiva marknadshypotesen tillsammans med The capital demand hypothesis. Resultat: Denna studie finner ett negativt samband mellan antalet introduktioner av fastighetsbolag samt det aktuella ränte- och konjunkturläget. Aktieprisutvecklingen bland fastighetsbolag och volatilitet på fastighetsaktiemarknaden har båda ett positivt samband med antalet introduktioner av fastighetsbolag. Denna studie finner inget samband mellan antalet introduktioner av fastighetsbolag och inflationsnivå. / Objective: This thesis aims to gain a deeper understanding of IPO activity by real estate firms, and why its volume varies over time. The objective is also to obtain the impacts of macroeconomic factors on the volumes of initial public offerings. Method: This study uses a quantitative method were macroeconomic factors will be used as predictors in a multiple regression analysis. Further, IPO volumes of real estate firms will be considered as the constant. Theorethical references: The basic theories that are used in this thesis are Efficient Market Hypothesis, the FDW-model, and The Capital Demand Hypothesis. Previous thesis that covers IPOs are considered as the fundmental basis of this study. Results: The results shows a negative correlation between the IPO volumes of real estate firms, and the interest rate, as well as the economic cycle. Hence, this study finds a positive correlation between stock prices and the volatility at the stock market. The results don’t find any significant correlation between IPO volumes and the inflation rate.

The background of our thesis is the fact that properties and their related industry have a big negative impact on our environment. Since the real estate business is an important part of how the society is constructed, environmental solutions and sustainable real estate development can contribute to positive climate changes globally. The last decades have shown an increasing number of green properties, however the proliferation on the Swedish market is still slow. Existing research describes different benefits and motivators that should encourage investments in environmentally certified properties among real estate companies. Benefits that are established are for example lower energy- and maintenance costs, lower vacancy rate, an improved company image and increasing market value. We believe there is a gap of information considering how the real estate companies experience that these benefits are generated from a green building, as well as how motivators have impacted on the companies’ investment decisions. The purpose of this thesis is therefore to explain how different motivators affect real estate companies to invest in environmentally certified properties. To answer the purpose of our thesis, we have created four different hypotheses based on existing research which includes an improved result, increased economic profitability, improved company image and the opportunity of incentive programs and economic contributions. The hypotheses of our study have been tested with a quantitative method, through a survey. Collected data from our study has been analysed through a multiple regression analysis, where the four motivators have been analysed against the real estate companies share of investment decisions in environmentally certified properties. The conclusion of this thesis is that none of the hypotheses reached statistical significance and therefore the collected data cannot prove any relations between the motivators and companies’ investment decisions. Although, through our study, we have been able to identify both differences and similarities between theoretical claims and the result from our study. Even though statistical relations cannot be confirmed, the survey has collected descriptive data which contributes to a general view of how Swedish real estate companies today evaluate environmentally certified properties and how they are motivated to invest in these properties.

The purpose of this thesis is to study the legitimacy perspective in sustainability reporting in the given context, and to find out whether Swedish construction companies define and value their legitimacy. In the thesis we have performed a qualitative study using the inductive method; in the research we have used hermeneutics as our starting point and constructionism as the research strategy. In the empirical part we have conducted structured interviews with a list of pre-formulated questions. For the interviews, we have chosen Sweden’s major property developers: Skanska AB, PEAB AB, NCC AB, JM AB and Midroc AB. Companies can get motivation to report their sustainability from their perceived obligation to support license to operate. Not all the companies use stakeholder analysis in the preparation of annual reports, which lets us assume that the companies base their choice of data mainly on internal perceptions of what is required. Data is not selected basing only on what company itself finds interesting; stakeholders’ information needs are reflected in the selection process, although, just like in the first question, not necessarily deliberately. Financial rationale is merely a criterion when choosing sustainability projects to work with; it does not define whether a company is focusing on sustainability in general. / Syftet med denna uppsats är att studera legitimitetsteorin hållbarhetsredovisningar i en särskild kontext och att studera om den svenska fastighetsutvecklingsbranschen definierar och värderar deras legitimitet. I vår uppsats har vi utfört en kvalitativ studie genom att använda induktiv metod. I forskningen har vi använt hermeneutik till att börja med och konstruktionism som forskningsmetodik. I vår empiri har vi utfört intervjuer med hjälp av ett frågeformulär. Till intervjuerna har vi valt Sveriges största fastighetsutvecklingsbolag: Skanska AB, PEAB AB, NCC AB, JM AB and Midroc AB. Bolagen kan motiveras att rapportera hållbarhet genom deras påtvingade skyldighet att upprätthålla licence to operate. Alla företag använder inte intressentanalys i förberedelserna inför årsrapporteringen, vilket ledde oss att antaga att företagen baserar deras val av innehåll huvudsakligen genom en intern föreställning om vad som förväntas från omvärlden. Fakta blir inte enbart utvald efter vad bolagen själv finner intressant. Intressenternas informationsbehov är reflekterade i urvalsprocessen, dock ej helt medvetet. Finansiella motiv är endast ett kriterium när företagen skall välja hållbarhetsprojekt; det avgör inte om ett företag fokuserar på hållbarhet i allmänhet.

This Master´s thesis is engaged in the property valuation in Italy. In particular, summarizes the most common method of market valuation property type apartment. There are explained basic valuation methods and thein use in actual practice. The Master´s thesis also described the current situation of the Italian property market. This Master´s thesis also offers the possibility of using some of the knowledges of the property valuation in Italy for the property valuation in the Czech Republic. The main target of the Master´s thesis is the description of methods and procedures for property valuation used in Italy. Mentioned knowledges are applied on the current apartment valuation at the end of this Master´s thesis.

The aim of this thesis is to explore the use of Mass Appraisal Methods in Czech republic. This diploma thesis specifies main use of those methods, next specifies who uses this methods and in which cases this methods are used. At first, there is description of appraisal methods used in Czech republic and abroad in this diploma thesis. On the basis of this knowledge utilizations of Mass Appraisal Methods are described. For illustration of Mass Appraisal Methods the appraisal of two sets of similar houses is performed for use of property taxes in context of legislation in Czech republic. Further advantages of appraisal systems are described, which use a Mass Appraisal Methods in praxes.