Com o aumento do consumo de energia elétrica no Brasil, em função de fatores como o aumento da renda per capita e o maior acesso da população aos sistemas de suprimento, justifica-se a procura por fontes alternativas de energia. Esta Dissertação aborda o consumo energético residencial e analisa o papel do aquecimento de água para banho, que representa uma sobrecarga para infraestrutura elétrica no Brasil. O trabalho apresenta uma visão crítica em relação à predominância da eletricidade nesse uso final da energia, já que mais de 80% das residências brasileiras aquecem água para banho com chuveiros elétricos. Propõe-se a utilização de gases combustíveis para o aquecimento de água em residências, identificando que, em vários países do mundo, esse é um uso energético relativamente trivial dos gases combustíveis. A mera comparação internacional peca, porém, em não identificar as particularidades do sistema energético nacional, dentro das quais insere-se a predominância da eletricidade no aquecimento de água. O trabalho descreve os aspectos históricos, sociais, tecnológicos e econômicos que sustentam essa situação e apresenta as dificuldades que inibem iniciativas de promoção da substituição da eletricidade por gases combustíveis nesse serviço energético. A discussão é apresentada por meio da metodologia \"SWOT\", que conduz a uma análise comparativa abrangente entre os chuveiros elétricos e os aquecedores a gás. A metodologia utilizada é sintetizada e sua aplicação enfatiza quatro aspectos principais: tecnológicos, regulatórios, culturais e econômicos. A partir dos resultados apresentados, a Dissertação recomenda ações específicas para cada uma das quatro dimensões analisadas, que permitam ampliar a utilização do uso de gases combustíveis para aquecimento de água nas residências brasileiras, diversificando, portanto, a matriz energética desse segmento e reduzindo a participação relativa da eletricidade. O trabalho encerra com sugestões de temas cuja pesquisa merece ser aprofundada, bem como indicando que várias das críticas aqui apresentadas também são relevantes para a discussão do papel da energia solar térmica em ambientes residenciais no Brasil. / With the increase in electricity consumption in Brazil, due to factors such as increased per capita income and greater access of the population to supply systems, is justified the search for alternative energy sources. This dissertation adresses the residential energy consumption and examines the role of heating water for bathing, which is a burden on electrical infrastructure in Brazil. The paper presents a critical view of the predominance of electricity in final energy use, since more than 80% of Brazilian homes heat water to bath with electric shower. It is proposed the use of combustible gases for heating water in homes, identifying that in many countries, this is a relatively trivial energy use of mere international comparison sins, but not to identify the particularities of national energy system, within which is part of the dominance of electricity in water heating. The work describes the historical, social, technological and economic aspects that sustain this situation and shows the difficulties that inhibit initiatives to promote the substitution of electricity for combustible gases that energy service. The discussion is presented through the SWOT methodology, leading to a comprehensive comparative analysis of the electric showers and gas heaters. The SWOT methodology is synthesized and its application emphasizes four main aspects: technological, regulatory, cultural and economic. From the results presented, the dissertation recommends specific actions for each of the four dimensions analyzed, which can widen the use of the use of domestic gas for water heating in the Brazilian households, diversifying therefore the energy matrix of this segment and reducing the share on electricity. The work concludes with suggestions for topics whose research deserves to be thorough as well as indicating that several of the criticisms presented here are also relevant to the discussion of the role of solar energy in residential environments in Brazil.

Com o aumento do consumo de energia elétrica no Brasil, em função de fatores como o aumento da renda per capita e o maior acesso da população aos sistemas de suprimento, justifica-se a procura por fontes alternativas de energia. Esta Dissertação aborda o consumo energético residencial e analisa o papel do aquecimento de água para banho, que representa uma sobrecarga para infraestrutura elétrica no Brasil. O trabalho apresenta uma visão crítica em relação à predominância da eletricidade nesse uso final da energia, já que mais de 80% das residências brasileiras aquecem água para banho com chuveiros elétricos. Propõe-se a utilização de gases combustíveis para o aquecimento de água em residências, identificando que, em vários países do mundo, esse é um uso energético relativamente trivial dos gases combustíveis. A mera comparação internacional peca, porém, em não identificar as particularidades do sistema energético nacional, dentro das quais insere-se a predominância da eletricidade no aquecimento de água. O trabalho descreve os aspectos históricos, sociais, tecnológicos e econômicos que sustentam essa situação e apresenta as dificuldades que inibem iniciativas de promoção da substituição da eletricidade por gases combustíveis nesse serviço energético. A discussão é apresentada por meio da metodologia \"SWOT\", que conduz a uma análise comparativa abrangente entre os chuveiros elétricos e os aquecedores a gás. A metodologia utilizada é sintetizada e sua aplicação enfatiza quatro aspectos principais: tecnológicos, regulatórios, culturais e econômicos. A partir dos resultados apresentados, a Dissertação recomenda ações específicas para cada uma das quatro dimensões analisadas, que permitam ampliar a utilização do uso de gases combustíveis para aquecimento de água nas residências brasileiras, diversificando, portanto, a matriz energética desse segmento e reduzindo a participação relativa da eletricidade. O trabalho encerra com sugestões de temas cuja pesquisa merece ser aprofundada, bem como indicando que várias das críticas aqui apresentadas também são relevantes para a discussão do papel da energia solar térmica em ambientes residenciais no Brasil. / With the increase in electricity consumption in Brazil, due to factors such as increased per capita income and greater access of the population to supply systems, is justified the search for alternative energy sources. This dissertation adresses the residential energy consumption and examines the role of heating water for bathing, which is a burden on electrical infrastructure in Brazil. The paper presents a critical view of the predominance of electricity in final energy use, since more than 80% of Brazilian homes heat water to bath with electric shower. It is proposed the use of combustible gases for heating water in homes, identifying that in many countries, this is a relatively trivial energy use of mere international comparison sins, but not to identify the particularities of national energy system, within which is part of the dominance of electricity in water heating. The work describes the historical, social, technological and economic aspects that sustain this situation and shows the difficulties that inhibit initiatives to promote the substitution of electricity for combustible gases that energy service. The discussion is presented through the SWOT methodology, leading to a comprehensive comparative analysis of the electric showers and gas heaters. The SWOT methodology is synthesized and its application emphasizes four main aspects: technological, regulatory, cultural and economic. From the results presented, the dissertation recommends specific actions for each of the four dimensions analyzed, which can widen the use of the use of domestic gas for water heating in the Brazilian households, diversifying therefore the energy matrix of this segment and reducing the share on electricity. The work concludes with suggestions for topics whose research deserves to be thorough as well as indicating that several of the criticisms presented here are also relevant to the discussion of the role of solar energy in residential environments in Brazil.

Cette thèse examine comment répondent des consommateurs aux mécanismes visant à réduire leur consommation d'énergie. Ce besoin de réduction découle de la nécessité d'atteindre les objectifs de réduction d'émissions de gaz à effet de serre, d'augmenter la production d'énergie à partir d'énergie renouvelables et de réaliser des économies d'énergie. Ces objectifs exigent que la demande résidentielle soit plus flexible face à l'évolution de l'offre et que des économies d'énergie soient réalisées par les ménages. Le premier chapitre explore les barrières à l'acceptation et à l'adoption des compteurs intelligents et des incitations qu'ils peuvent fournir. D'importantes barrières existent et les réductions de consommation sont loin d'être réalisées. Le manque de motivation, l'incompréhension de l'information sur la consommation et la rigidité de la vie quotidienne sont les principales barrières qui limitent la réponse des ménages aux incitations fournies par les compteurs intelligents. Le deuxième chapitre analyse les résultats d'expériences de terrain et d'études pilotes portant sur les impacts des différentes incitations sur la consommation résidentielle. Les résultats montrent qu'il existe de grandes variations et qu'en moyenne, une incitation entraînera une réduction de 2% de la consommation d'énergie. Les incitations de feedback en temps réel ainsi que l'information monétaire ont le plus grand effet. Enfin, les études plus robustes font état d'effets de réduction plus faibles. Dans le troisième chapitre, un jeu expérimental de ressources communes est utilisé pour explorer les réponses individuelles aux incitations basées sur le prix et les nudges. Les individus sont encouragés à réduire leur consommation, soit par une augmentation de prix, soit par des smiley évocant leur surconsommation. Le prix est le plus efficace pour encourager le niveau cible de consommation, mais il faut plus de temps pour qu'il fasse effet. Le nudge est compris rapidement mais tend à renforcer les comportements de surconsommation. Le quatrième chapitre examine l'effet du framing sur la disposition à l'effort. Les individus doivent accomplir une tâche simple et répétitive pour laquelle ils reçoivent un paiement à la pièce sous forme d'un gain ou d'une perte. Le framing sous forme de gains et de pertes est combiné à trois structures de paiement différentes : gain fixe, gain faible ou élevé avec une probabilité égale révélée avant ou après la réalisation de l'effort. Les résultats montrent que le framing n'a aucun effet sur la réalisation de l'effort, excepté pour un contexte de gain élevé annoncé avant de fournir l'effort. / This thesis examines how consumers respond to incentives used to encourage a reduction in their energy consumption. This necessary reduction stems from the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, increase energy production from renewable energy sources and achieve energy savings. These objectives require that residential demand be more flexible in response to changes in supply and that energy savings be achieved by households. The first chapter explores the barriers to consumer acceptance and adoption of smart meters and the incentives that they provide. Significant barriers exist and consumption reductions are far from being achieved. Limited motivation, lack of understanding of information on consumption and the rigidity of daily life are the main barriers preventing households from acting upon the incentives delivered via smart meters. The second chapter analyses the results of field experiments and pilot studies on the impacts of different incentives on residential consumption. The results show that there are large variations and that, on average, an incentive will result in a 2% reduction in energy consumption. Real-time feedback and monetary information have the greatest effect. Finally, more robust studies report lower reduction effects. In the third chapter, a common pool resource game is used to explore individual responses to price and nudge-based incentives. Individuals are encouraged to reduce their consumption either by price increases or by smilies that reflect their overconsumption. The price is most effective at encouraging the target level of consumption but takes longer to have an effect. The nudge is quickly understood but tends to reinforce overconsumption behaviours. The fourth chapter examines the effect of framing on effort provision. Individuals are asked to complete a simple and repetitive task for which they receive a piece-rate payoff in the form of a gain or loss. Framing in the form of gains and losses is combined with three different payment structures: fixed gain, low gain or high gain with an equal probability revealed before or after the effort is made. The results show that framing has no effect on effort provision, except for a high gain context announced before making the effort.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-02T20:00:35Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 3359.pdf: 7404419 bytes, checksum: e21d234f78aa4491dbcb6e7fab2e1482 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010-11-16 / Financiadora de Estudos e Projetos / One of the main changes observed in cities today are the changes of the urban climate in relation to its surrounding areas. Differences in thermal field of a city may interfere in the residential energy consumption, being its study relevant, once the energy is precondition so that essential facilities and benefits of modern life can be enjoyed. From this, this work has as objective establishment of relationships between the thermal field and residential energy consumption in the city of São Carlos-SP, for different scales of approach and based on some parameters of urban morphology. In the methodology three variables were worked: the urban morphology, the climate and energy consumption. In the specific case of variable the climate, this was studied in two scales: the scale micro-scale and mesoscale. Methodological work steps were: inventory, bibliographic review, selection of control points, climate study on micro-scale (composed by substeps: climatic data processing, calculation of sky view factor, calculation of occupancy rate and index of exploitation and calculation of the vegetation index), study of climate on meso-scale (composed by substeps: estimation of radiometric temperature, calculation of the vegetation index and multicriterium analysis), study of energy consumption and finally data analysis. The results confirmed that the morphological influence on thermal field in micro-scale and meso-scale. In the microscale the exploiting index, sky view factor and average height indicated behaviors as described in the bibliography for the average, maximum and minimum temperature data, while the occupancy rate has the behavior described in the bibliography for amplitude. In meso-scale vegetation was evaluated as a factor of biggest influence on the climate. The residential energy consumption presented coherent distribution with changes in thermal field; however, this changes shall also be related to social classes of regions, since these have varying patterns of use. Regarding geoprocessing techniques used in the methodology, it was observed that the algorithms, kriging and multicriterium analysis were useful in the research, however the vegetation index, despite being simple execution, did not provided for micro-scale the desirable results. / Uma das principais modificações observadas nas cidades na atualidade são as alterações das condições climáticas em relação às áreas circunvizinhas, resultando em um clima diferenciado nas áreas urbanas. As diferenças no campo térmico de um município interferem no consumo de energia elétrica residencial, sendo seu estudo relevante, uma vez que, a energia elétrica é condição indispensável para que as comodidades e benefícios essenciais da vida moderna possam ser desfrutados. A partir disto, este trabalho teve como objetivo estabelecer relações entre o campo térmico e consumo de energia elétrica residencial na cidade de São Carlos-SP, para diferentes escalas de abordagem e em função de alguns parâmetros da morfologia urbana. Na metodologia foram trabalhadas três variáveis de estudo: a morfologia urbana, o clima e o consumo energético. No caso específico da variável clima, esta foi estudada em duas escalas: a micro-escala e a mesoescala. As etapas metodológicas do trabalho foram: inventário, revisão bibliográfica, seleção de pontos de controle, estudo do clima na micro-escala (composta pelas sub-etapas: processamento de dados climáticos, cálculo de fator de visão do céu, cálculo de taxa de ocupação e índice de aproveitamento e cálculo de índice de vegetação), estudo do clima na meso-escala (composta pelas sub-etapas: estimativa da temperatura radiométrica, cálculo do índice de vegetação e análise multicritério), estudo do consumo energético e por fim análise dos dados. Os resultados obtidos confirmaram que os parâmetros morfológicos influenciam no campo térmico em micro-escala e meso-escala. Na micro-escala o índice de aproveitamento, fator de visão do céu e altura média indicaram comportamentos como descrito na bibliografia em relação a médias, máximas e mínimas, enquanto a taxa de ocupação apresentou o comportamento indicado na bibliografia perante a amplitude. Na meso-escala a vegetação apresentou-se como fator de maior influência no clima. O consumo de energia elétrica residencial apresentou uma distribuição coerente com as variações do campo térmico, entretanto, esta variação deve ser relacionada também às classes sociais das regiões, já que estas possuem padrões de consumo variados. Quanto às técnicas de geoprocessamento utilizadas na metodologia, foi observado que os algoritmos de krigagem e análise multicritério foram úteis na investigação, já o índice de vegetação, apesar de ser de simples execução, não apresentou para micro-escala os resultados desejados.

In dieser Arbeit wird ein Modell für die Simulation des Verbraucherverhaltens in Haushalten entwickelt. Das Ziel ist die Erstellung von Lastprofilen für den Strom- und Wasserverbrauch. Das Modell wird in einem Programm implementiert. Die Ergebnisse werden anschließend validiert und verschiedene Kenngrößen mit Literaturwerten verglichen. Abschließend wird eine Parameterstudie durchgeführt, um den Einfluss verschiedener Faktoren wie z.B. das Arbeitszeitmodell oder die Feiertagsmodellierung auf Lastprofile zu quantifizieren. Das Modell basiert auf einem Bedürfnismodell aus der Psychologie und ermöglicht den Verzicht auf die Errechnung von Aktivitäts-Wahrscheinlichkeitsverteilungen. / In this thesis a model for the simulation of the behaviour of people in residential households is introduced. The goal is to generate load profiles for residential electricity and water consumption. The model is implemented as a Windows program. The results are validated and various metrics are compared with literature values. A parameter study is performed to quantify the influence of various factors such as the working hours or the influence of holidays on the load profile. The model is based on a desire model from the field of psychology and makes it possible to avoid calculating any probabilty distributions.

In dieser Arbeit wird ein Modell für die Simulation des Verbraucherverhaltens in Haushalten entwickelt. Das Ziel ist die Erstellung von Lastprofilen für den Strom- und Wasserverbrauch. Das Modell wird in einem Programm implementiert. Die Ergebnisse werden anschließend validiert und verschiedene Kenngrößen mit Literaturwerten verglichen. Abschließend wird eine Parameterstudie durchgeführt, um den Einfluss verschiedener Faktoren wie z.B. das Arbeitszeitmodell oder die Feiertagsmodellierung auf Lastprofile zu quantifizieren. Das Modell basiert auf einem Bedürfnismodell aus der Psychologie und ermöglicht den Verzicht auf die Errechnung von Aktivitäts-Wahrscheinlichkeitsverteilungen.:Inhaltsverzeichnis 1 Einleitung 1.1 Motivation 1.2 Ziel der Arbeit 2 Einordnung 3 Wissensstand 3.1 Lastprofile 3.1.1 VDEW-Standard-Lastprofile 3.1.2 Referenzlastprofile von Ein- und Mehrfamilienhäusern für den Einsatz von KWK-Anlagen (VDI 4655) 3.1.3 BDEW-Standardlastprofile Gas 3.1.4 IEA Annex 42 Lastkurven 3.2 Lastprofilgeneratoren 3.2.1 Methoden 3.2.2 Auswahl der Beispiele 3.2.3 Lastprofilgenerator nach Stokes 3.2.4 Lastprofilgenerator nach IEA Annex 42 3.2.5 Lastprofilgenerator nach Jordan 3.2.6 Lastprofilgenerator nach NREL 3.2.7 Lastprofilgenerator nach Walker und Pokoski 3.2.8 Lastprofilgenerator nach Capasso 3.2.9 Lastprofilgenerator nach Widen et al. 3.2.10 Lastprofilgenerator nach Richardson 3.2.11 Lastprofilgenerator nach Metz 3.2.12 Lastprofilgenerator nach Fischer 3.2.13 Zusammenfassung der Lastprofilgeneratoren 3.3 Verhaltenssimulation 3.3.1 Rational Choice Model 3.3.2 Verhaltensmodell nach D. Dörner 3.4 Hausinfrastrukturmodelle 3.4.1 Heizung und Kühlung 3.4.2 Modellierung in TRNSYS 4 Das Modell des bLPG 4.1 Bedürfnismodell 4.2 Modellierung eines einzelnen Haushalts 4.2.1 Desires 4.2.2 Person 4.2.3 Load Types 4.2.4 Devices 4.2.5 Time Profile 4.2.6 Time Limits 4.2.7 Affordances 4.2.8 Berechnungsbeispiel Aktivitätenauswahl 4.2.9 Zusammenfassung der Modellierung eines Haushalts 4.3 Verbesserung der Modellqualität 4.3.1 Locations 4.3.2 Holidays 4.3.3 Geographic Locations 4.3.4 Subaffordances 4.3.5 Temperature Profiles und Date Based Profiles 4.3.6 Vacations 4.3.7 Autonome Geräte 4.4 Houses und Settlements 4.4.1 House Types 4.5 Abstraktion der Geräte 4.6 Abstraktion Haushaltsdefinition 4.7 Elemente für Auswertungen 4.8 Zusammenfassung des Modells des bLPG 5 Implementierung 5.1 Allgemeines 5.2 Historie 5.3 Features 5.4 Struktur 5.5 User Interface 5.6 Database 5.7 CalcController 5.8 Calculation 5.8.1 Aktivitätswahl 5.8.2 Protokollierung 5.8.3 House Infrastructure 5.9 ChartCreator 5.10 SimulationEngine.Exe 5.11 Verwendete Bibliotheken 5.12 Zusammenfassung der Implementierung 6 Modellierung der vordefinierten Haushalte 6.1 Datenbasis und Modellierung 6.2 Vordefininierte Elemente 6.3 Namensschema 6.4 Erfahrungen bei der Erstellung der vordefinierten Haushalte 6.5 Zusammenfassung 7 Validierung 7.1 Einzelner Haushalt 7.1.1 Aktivitäten - Rasterdiagramme 7.1.2 Aktivitäten - Zeit pro Affordanz 7.1.3 Summe des Stromverbrauchs 7.1.4 Verlauf des Lastprofils 7.1.5 Wasserverbrauch 7.1.6 Integration von Photovoltaik 7.1.7 Lichtbedarf 7.1.8 Zusammenfassung CHR03 7.2 Vordefinierte Haushalte 7.2.1 Stromverbrauch 7.2.2 Verhaltensgesteuerter Anteil am Stromverbrauch 7.2.3 Zeitverbrauch der Aktivitäten 7.2.4 Eigenverbrauchsquote mit einer Photovoltaik-Anlage 7.2.5 Jahresdauerlinien 7.3 Validierung einer Siedlung 7.3.1 Gleichzeitigkeitsfaktor des Stromverbrauchs 7.3.2 Vergleich einer Siedlung mit dem H0-Profil 7.4 Fazit 8 Anwendungsmöglichkeiten und Ergebnisse 8.1 Integration von Photovoltaik und Batterien 8.2 Parameterstudie 8.2.1 Vergleichskriterien 8.2.2 Einfluss von Brückentagen 8.2.3 Einfluss von Urlaubsreisen 8.2.4 Einfluss des Rentneranteils 8.2.5 Einfluss von Schichtarbeitern 8.2.6 Einfluss von Arbeitslosigkeit 8.2.7 Einfluss der Energieintensitätseinstellung 8.2.8 Einflussgröße Beleuchtung 8.3 Zusammenfassung der Parameterstudie 9 Ausblick 9.1 Verbesserungspotenziale der Implementierung 9.2 Verbesserungspotenziale der Datenbasis 9.3 Zusammenfassung des Ausblicks 10 Zusammenfassung Anhänge Anhang A Website Anhang B LoadProfileGenerator Manual Literaturverzeichnis / In this thesis a model for the simulation of the behaviour of people in residential households is introduced. The goal is to generate load profiles for residential electricity and water consumption. The model is implemented as a Windows program. The results are validated and various metrics are compared with literature values. A parameter study is performed to quantify the influence of various factors such as the working hours or the influence of holidays on the load profile. The model is based on a desire model from the field of psychology and makes it possible to avoid calculating any probabilty distributions.:Inhaltsverzeichnis 1 Einleitung 1.1 Motivation 1.2 Ziel der Arbeit 2 Einordnung 3 Wissensstand 3.1 Lastprofile 3.1.1 VDEW-Standard-Lastprofile 3.1.2 Referenzlastprofile von Ein- und Mehrfamilienhäusern für den Einsatz von KWK-Anlagen (VDI 4655) 3.1.3 BDEW-Standardlastprofile Gas 3.1.4 IEA Annex 42 Lastkurven 3.2 Lastprofilgeneratoren 3.2.1 Methoden 3.2.2 Auswahl der Beispiele 3.2.3 Lastprofilgenerator nach Stokes 3.2.4 Lastprofilgenerator nach IEA Annex 42 3.2.5 Lastprofilgenerator nach Jordan 3.2.6 Lastprofilgenerator nach NREL 3.2.7 Lastprofilgenerator nach Walker und Pokoski 3.2.8 Lastprofilgenerator nach Capasso 3.2.9 Lastprofilgenerator nach Widen et al. 3.2.10 Lastprofilgenerator nach Richardson 3.2.11 Lastprofilgenerator nach Metz 3.2.12 Lastprofilgenerator nach Fischer 3.2.13 Zusammenfassung der Lastprofilgeneratoren 3.3 Verhaltenssimulation 3.3.1 Rational Choice Model 3.3.2 Verhaltensmodell nach D. Dörner 3.4 Hausinfrastrukturmodelle 3.4.1 Heizung und Kühlung 3.4.2 Modellierung in TRNSYS 4 Das Modell des bLPG 4.1 Bedürfnismodell 4.2 Modellierung eines einzelnen Haushalts 4.2.1 Desires 4.2.2 Person 4.2.3 Load Types 4.2.4 Devices 4.2.5 Time Profile 4.2.6 Time Limits 4.2.7 Affordances 4.2.8 Berechnungsbeispiel Aktivitätenauswahl 4.2.9 Zusammenfassung der Modellierung eines Haushalts 4.3 Verbesserung der Modellqualität 4.3.1 Locations 4.3.2 Holidays 4.3.3 Geographic Locations 4.3.4 Subaffordances 4.3.5 Temperature Profiles und Date Based Profiles 4.3.6 Vacations 4.3.7 Autonome Geräte 4.4 Houses und Settlements 4.4.1 House Types 4.5 Abstraktion der Geräte 4.6 Abstraktion Haushaltsdefinition 4.7 Elemente für Auswertungen 4.8 Zusammenfassung des Modells des bLPG 5 Implementierung 5.1 Allgemeines 5.2 Historie 5.3 Features 5.4 Struktur 5.5 User Interface 5.6 Database 5.7 CalcController 5.8 Calculation 5.8.1 Aktivitätswahl 5.8.2 Protokollierung 5.8.3 House Infrastructure 5.9 ChartCreator 5.10 SimulationEngine.Exe 5.11 Verwendete Bibliotheken 5.12 Zusammenfassung der Implementierung 6 Modellierung der vordefinierten Haushalte 6.1 Datenbasis und Modellierung 6.2 Vordefininierte Elemente 6.3 Namensschema 6.4 Erfahrungen bei der Erstellung der vordefinierten Haushalte 6.5 Zusammenfassung 7 Validierung 7.1 Einzelner Haushalt 7.1.1 Aktivitäten - Rasterdiagramme 7.1.2 Aktivitäten - Zeit pro Affordanz 7.1.3 Summe des Stromverbrauchs 7.1.4 Verlauf des Lastprofils 7.1.5 Wasserverbrauch 7.1.6 Integration von Photovoltaik 7.1.7 Lichtbedarf 7.1.8 Zusammenfassung CHR03 7.2 Vordefinierte Haushalte 7.2.1 Stromverbrauch 7.2.2 Verhaltensgesteuerter Anteil am Stromverbrauch 7.2.3 Zeitverbrauch der Aktivitäten 7.2.4 Eigenverbrauchsquote mit einer Photovoltaik-Anlage 7.2.5 Jahresdauerlinien 7.3 Validierung einer Siedlung 7.3.1 Gleichzeitigkeitsfaktor des Stromverbrauchs 7.3.2 Vergleich einer Siedlung mit dem H0-Profil 7.4 Fazit 8 Anwendungsmöglichkeiten und Ergebnisse 8.1 Integration von Photovoltaik und Batterien 8.2 Parameterstudie 8.2.1 Vergleichskriterien 8.2.2 Einfluss von Brückentagen 8.2.3 Einfluss von Urlaubsreisen 8.2.4 Einfluss des Rentneranteils 8.2.5 Einfluss von Schichtarbeitern 8.2.6 Einfluss von Arbeitslosigkeit 8.2.7 Einfluss der Energieintensitätseinstellung 8.2.8 Einflussgröße Beleuchtung 8.3 Zusammenfassung der Parameterstudie 9 Ausblick 9.1 Verbesserungspotenziale der Implementierung 9.2 Verbesserungspotenziale der Datenbasis 9.3 Zusammenfassung des Ausblicks 10 Zusammenfassung Anhänge Anhang A Website Anhang B LoadProfileGenerator Manual Literaturverzeichnis

由於石化能源的蘊藏量有限，各國政府目前以能源的安全供給與環保的使用做為主要的能源政策，經過各國公部門與私部門多年來的努力，許多替代能源的技術雖然開始商品化，但實際上對於傳統石化能源依賴度的減少，仍舊有限。反觀節能技術雖然表面上不如屬於”開源”概念的再生能源響亮，但技術的成熟度與產業化對於減少石化能源依賴的貢獻度並不亞於開源的效果，尤其許多發展中的國家短期內勢必無法負擔新的再生能源技術所要付出的昂貴能源費用，能源管理服務業所能提供的節能效果，可以同時解決能源效率低落所造成的浪費以及環境的衝擊。 而能源管理服務業重點在於節能，歐洲與日本市場無論是民眾或是政府在開發替代能源與節約能源的議題上之成果有目共睹，但反觀耗能最高的美國、發展中的中國，節能議題相對來講更形重要，這與台灣的狀況相當類似，因此本研究期望經由法制政策面、產業面以及智慧財產佈局狀況，探討美國與中國之能源管理服務業之現況，並與台灣本身能源管理服務業之發展做比較，提出能源管理服務業未來發展上的建議。 1. 能源管理服務業不宜將有限資源過分集中於發展太陽能與風力發電技術 2. 以美國市場為鏡，以中國大陸能源管理市場為目標 3. 積極從事中國大陸能源管理服務業相關技術之專利佈局 4. ”中央能源管理服務系統”概念的導入-節能減排的技術與服務的創新 5. 發展能源管理服務業住宅之應用 6. 創新的融資模式 7. 人員的培訓與教育 / Due to the limited deposits of fusil energy, the safety and environment protection of energy use ate the most two crucial issues among the countries. After decades of development, alternative energy commercialization successfully started in developed countries. Nevertheless, it’s still not material enough comparing to the energy consumption now days. However, the effect of the energy efficiency technologies is far more practical for developing countries that do not have enough budget for alternative renewable energy research and development. With effective energy management, the Energy Service Companies (ESCOs) can reduce significantly the waste of energy and the influence to the environment while mitigate the impact of the economical growth of emerging countries. ESCOs profit from the energy conservation of their clients by enhance the energy efficiency in various categories including utilities, government, industrial and commercial sectors. According to present study, European countries and Japan in Asia have already developed outstanding environmental friendly policies both in public and private sectors. On the other hand, highly energy consumption country like United States and rapidly growing China just started to deal with this global warming problem and hopefully can still maintain the economy growth at the same time. Undoubtedly, we face the same issue here in Taiwan. As a result, this study is trying to gather and analyze information about ESCO industry in United States, China and Taiwan from three aspects, governmental policies, industry environment and intellectual property strategies to conclude as well as raise opinion and suggestion about the future development of ESCOs. This study concludes in following opinion and suggestion, 1. ESCOs shouldn’t emphasize all their resources to conduct Solar and Wind power technologies instead of energy efficiency technologies. 2. Learn the track of ESCOs in United States and focus on the market in China. 3. Aggressively develop intellectual property strategies about ESCO related subjects in China. 4. Introduce the concept of “Centralized Energy Management System” and encourage innovation of law carbon discharge and high efficiency technologies. 5. Develop ESCO model in residential application. 6. Develop creative fund raising tools for ESCOs. 7. Invest in education and training program related to ESCO industry.