Natural disasters have become more severe and frequent than previous assessments with global warming. The increasing risk of natural disasters presents different groups of populations with diverse vulnerabilities, particularly those underrepresented social groups which need specific support before, during, and after extreme disasters. Hence, it is highly desired to examine vulnerability quantitatively and qualitatively across different social groups in risk to natural disasters. This dissertation study aims to investigate the measure of social vulnerability to two types of climate change-related natural disasters: sea-level-rise floodings and wildfires. In the study of sea-level-rise floodings, high-risk flooding areas are first identified for a coastal city. Then, we measure social vulnerability index (SVI) using a new SVI metric to identify vulnerable social groups which should be paid more attention for coastal flooding disaster mitigation. Compared to existing SVI methods, the new SVI leverages principal component analysis and analytic hierarchy process to achieve a better social vulnerability analysis. In the study of wildfires, we focus on the understanding of minority vulnerabilities and their disparities to wildfires over time and space. Minority vulnerabilities are analyzed with spatial clustering methods including Local Moran’s I and Getis-Ord Gi*. The vulnerability disparity is measured based on a reference point from which the quantity separates a minority group on a particular place. Both location quotient and location amplitude index are used to quantitively measure the vulnerability disparity among different minorities. Lastly, in addition to the “direct” impact of disasters on vulnerable population, this dissertation study also conducts vulnerability analysis to failed infrastructure (e.g., power systems) due to disasters, i.e., the “indirect” impact of disasters on different social groups. Recently, scheduled power outages known as Public Safety Power Shutoff (PSPS) are becoming increasingly common to mitigate threats of wildfires to power systems. However, current PSPS decision making processes do not consider the unequal distribution of various social groups, particularly those who are more vulnerable to the power outage. This study investigates the measure of social vulnerability in high-risk fire areas to PSPS, which will help decision makers to better determine the efficiency of a PSPS event for wildfire mitigation.

Den globala medelhavsnivån stiger och är ett oåterkalleligt fenomen som kommer fortsätta att stiga flera tusen år framöver. Studien syftar till att förstå hur kustkommunerna, Malmö och Trelleborg, resonerar kring strategier och anpassningsåtgärder för att hantera utmaningar med havsnivåhöjningar, såväl som med rådande styrning och ansvarsfördelningen. Studien undersöker även kommunernas syn på havet och valet av tidsperspektiv i planeringen.  Resultatet från studien visar på ett behov av ett längre tidsperspektiv, bortom 100 år för att möta utmaningarna med havsnivåhöjningar. Det rådande synsättet på havet som en fiende behöver således förändras för att åstadkomma en effektivare planering. Det krävs bland annat ett förändrat synsätt där havet ses som en medspelare och tar hänsyn till havets dynamik, men även alternativa åtgärder som utgår från ett längre perspektiv. Utmaningar kring styrning och ansvarsfördelning har identifieras som centrala i arbetet för en effektivare planering med havsnivåhöjningar. Det krävs inte bara tydligare strukturer för samarbete och ansvarsfördelning, utan även en bättre lagstiftning som främjar agerande över passivitet. / Global sea level rise is a phenomenon that is irreversible and will continue to rise for thousands of years to come. The study aims to understand how the coastal municipalities, Malmö and Trelleborg, reason about strategies and adaptation measures to address the issue of sea level rise, as well as the current governance and responsibility. The study also examines the municipalities' approach to the sea and the decision on the time perspective in planning.  The results of the study show a need for a longer time perspective, beyond 100 years, to meet the challenges of sea level rise. The current approach to the sea as an enemy therefore needs to shift in order to achieve a more effective planning. This requires, among other things, a change in approach where the sea is seen as a co-player and takes into account the dynamics of the sea, but also alternative measures based on a longer-term perspective. Challenges related to governance and the delegation of responsibilities have been identified as crucial in the work towards a more effective planning for sea level rise. Not only do we need explicit structures for governance and accountability, but also improved legislation that promotes action over inaction.

How can architects let their buildings interact with the water while protecting occupants from the potential danger? The two intents are very different and often compete with one, either protection or recreation, as the primary program in one project. Water draws people, everyone likes being near water. People visit waterfalls and the beach just to experience moving water, they go boating and kayaking just to be on the water. Water views and access are considered an amenity that drive up prices in buildings. Whenever possible architects should strive to connect their architecture and water and to let occupants interact with the water. However, water can be dangerous too. Overfull rivers wash away roads and cars. Floods inundate entire cities, and hurricanes devastate huge islands. In addition to catastrophic damage sea levels are rising around the world causing damage and rendering low lying land uninhabitable. Architects must protect against these dangers. If designed correctly buildings can offer shelter from storms and resist rising water of all kinds. For my thesis I decided to study how to reconcile these two conflicting approaches to water. / Master of Architecture / Water draws people,everyone likes being near water. People visit waterfalls and the beach just to experience moving water, they go boating and kayaking just to be on the water. Water views and access are considered an amenity that drive up prices in buildings and resturants. However, water can be dangerous too. Overfull rivers wash away roads and cars. Floods inundate entire cities, and hurricanes devastate huge islands. In addition to catastrophic destruction sea levels are rising around the world causing damage and rendering low lying land uninhabitable. For my thesis I decided to study how to reconcile these two conflicting approaches to water.

Rising sea levels present an ongoing threat to communities and resources around the Chesapeake Bay, east coast, USA, where tide gauges indicate that the relative rise of sea level is approximately twice the rate of average, eustatic sea-level rise. This has significantly compromised the health and viability of salt marsh habitat on the Eastern Shore during the 20th century, and the biologists who are charged with managing coastal resources in the coming decades need to understand the nature and causes of high rates of regional sea-level rise to develop suitable adaptation plans. Dated geologic deposits and geophysical models suggest that sea-level rise is relatively high on mid-Atlantic coastlines because the land surface is subsiding due to a collapsing glacial forebulge following the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). To fully understand this process, past sea-level indicators such as dated shoreline deposits are needed to reconstruct regional sea-level behavior in the past, but rigorous age control on geologic deposits is largely restricted to the Holocene and to marine isotope stage (MIS) 5, so the rates and timescales over which these processes operate remain unknown. This research provides long-term paleoenvironmental records from ancient environments under east-central Chesapeake Bay to place the current sea-level threats into the context of a long geologic history of sea-level fluctuations. First, the Pleistocene geologic framework of the region is reconstructed through borehole drilling. Sediments from boreholes provided material for interpreting depositional environments, and for establishing age control for deposits, so that the entire stratigraphy was constrained both in space and time. The geologic framework and ages indicate that Chesapeake Bay alternated between a deeply incised fluvial system and a filled estuary repeatedly in response to major climate fluctuations since at least the early Pleistocene, ~2 Ma. The ages and sedimentology indicate that the field area was submerged intermittently in a shallow estuary until nearly the end of marine isotope stage 3. Because global sea-level proxies suggest that sea level was ~40-80 meters lower than present at that time, these ages suggest that the penultimate glacial forebulge must have remained significantly lowered for nearly 100 ky following the retreat of ice. The implication of this time lag is that mid-Atlantic coastlines are still in a relatively early state of forebulge collapse, and subsidence following retreat of ice from the Last Glacial Maximum will likely continue for the foreseeable future. Ongoing subsidence will continue to exacerbate projected eustatic sea-level rise due to changing global climate, and coastal adaptation plans must remain focused on encouraging the migration of vital habitat toward higher elevations in the landscape.

Tidal freshwater wetlands (TFW) are at significant risk of loss or alteration due to global climate change, and saltwater intrusion from sea level rise is of particular concern for these habitats due to their proximity to coastal areas. A space-for-time model was used to investigate the effects of saltwater intrusion on soil methanogen communities along naturally occurring salinity gradients on the Waccamaw, James, and Hudson Rivers. Amplification of the methyl coenzyme-M reductase (mcrA) functional gene was used in qPCR, reverse transcription qPCR, and T-RFLP to measure the abundance, activity, and community composition of soil methanogens. Both the abundance and activity of methanogens decreased with increasing salinity, and the both total and active methanogen community composition shifted in response to changes in salinity. This research demonstrates that saltwater intrusion will alter carbon cycling in TFWs, potentially altering their ability to sequester carbon and keep pace with rising sea level.

The purpose of this project is to evaluate the response of coastal community comprehensive plans to the threats posed by sea level rise. The communities evaluated are Chincoteague, VA, Ocean City, MD, and Rehoboth Beach, DE. The results of the evaluations illustrate to what extent these communities are prepared to deal with sea level rise and provide a basis for recommendations to improve plan quality. The level of community risk and the components of the individual comprehensive plans are evaluated using new models created for this project. Risk level is measured using computer disaster simulations, topographic and demographic data. The plan evaluation criteria include standard plan quality benchmarks and hazard mitigation and adaptation elements suggested by numerous agencies and resources. The plan evaluations range in quality from “poor” to “excellent”. These evaluations will be used to create policy strategies and recommendations for addressing the threat of sea level rise.

O Porto de Santos está localizado no litoral Paulista, na costa Sudeste do Brasil e é o maior e mais importante porto do país. Desde 1859 vem sofrendo adaptações e modernizações tanto em suas instalações físicas quanto em sua estrutura administrativa. As variáveis com as quais a Engenharia Civil deve lidar podem ser resumidas basicamente aos fenômenos naturais, pois estes determinam como serão projetadas e construídas as estruturas e instalações. Em projetos portuários, diversas características naturais devem ser mensuradas como, por exemplo, ventos, correntes marítimas, incidência de ondas, tipo de solo em que se encontra o porto, as temperaturas médias do local e, sobretudo, o nível do mar. Os mares e oceanos não possuem superfícies estáveis e apresentam cotas que estão em movimentos constantes. Estas variações se dão basicamente por ondas de curto ou longo período. A maré é uma onda de longo período que causa a variação diária do nível do mar. Atualmente é cada vez maior o interesse da comunidade científica pela temática relacionada às variações do nível do mar. Buscando contribuir com o tema, o presente estudo tem como objetivo principal a análise das variações do nível do mar no Porto de Santos ao longo dos últimos 60 anos, utilizando-se de dados coletados nos três marégrafos da região. Foi elaborada a média móvel desta série com a finalidade de detectar alguma variação significativa. A análise dos dados implicou que fossem considerados períodos de 18,61 anos, correspondentes ao intervalo do ciclo de precessão lunar, de modo a eliminar o efeito da variação astronômica no nível do mar. A elevação do nível máximo, médio e mínimo do mar no período de 1953 a 2008, apresentou uma elevação média de 2,5 mm/ano, resultado semelhante a outros estudos. Foram avaliados também o impacto da variação do nível do mar sobre as estruturas portuárias, indicando os efeitos da elevação nas estruturas, nos cais, nos aparelhos de defensa e ancoragem, nos equipamentos de descarga e outros. / Santos Harbor is at São Paulo\'s coast, in Brazil\'s southeast coast and it is the biggest and the most important port of the country. Since 1859 had been suffering adaptations and modernizations in its installations such as in its administrative structure. The variables that Civil Engineering has to deal with can be resumed basically to the natural phenomena because its determines how projected and built the structures will be. In docks projects, several natural characteristics must be measured, as example, winds, ocean currents, waves incidence, kind of soil that supports the harbor\'s structures, the local medium temperatures and, mainly the sea level. The seas and oceans doesn\'t have stables surfaces and shows levels that are in constant movements. These variations are products of short and long period waves. The tide is a long period wave that causes the daily sea level variation. Actually, the interest of the scientific community in sea level variation is increasing. Aiming to contribute with this theme, the present study has as main objective analyzing the sea level variations at Santos Harbor above the last 60 years, using data collected from three tidal gauges in the region. It was applied the moving average of the series to detect some significant variation. The data analysis demanded that the periods of 18,61 years, which corresponds to the interval of the moon precession cycles, was considered to purge the astronomic variation over the sea level. The maximum sea level, average and minimum sea level, in the period of 1953 and 2008 showed an average increase of 2.5 mm/year, which is similar to other studies. It was evaluated the impact of this sea level rise over the port\'s structures, showing the structural effects, over the docks; in the defense and anchorage equipment, unload equipment and others.

Seawater intrusion (SWI) is a widespread environmental problem, particularly in arid and semi-arid coastal areas. Unplanned prolonged over-pumping of groundwater is the most important factor in SWI that could result in severe deterioration of groundwater quality. Therefore, appropriate management strategies should be implemented in coastal aquifers to control SWI with acceptable limits of economic and environmental costs. This PhD project presents the development and application of a simulation-optimization (S/O) model to assess different management methods of controlling saltwater intrusion while satisfying water demands, and with acceptable limits of economic and environmental costs, in confined and unconfined coastal aquifers. The first S/O model (FE-GA) is developed by direct linking of an FE simulation model with a multi-objective Genetic Algorithm (GA) to optimize the efficiency of a wide range of SWI management scenarios. However, in this S/O framework, several multiple calls of the simulation model by the population-based optimization model, evaluating best individual candidate solutions resulted in a considerable computational burden. To solve this problem the numerical simulation model is replaced by an Evolutionary Polynomial Regression (EPR)-based surrogate model in the next S/O model (EPR-GA). Through these S/O approaches (FE-GA and EPR-GA) the optimal coordinates and rates of the both abstraction and recharge barriers are determined in the studied management scenarios. As a result, a new combined methodology, so far called ADRTWW, is proposed to control SWI. The ADRTWW model consists of deep Abstraction of saline water near the coast followed by Desalination of the abstracted water to a potable level for public uses and simultaneously Recharging the aquifer using a more economic source of water such as treated wastewater (TWW). In accordance to the available recharge options (injection through well or infiltration from surface pond), the general performance of ADRTWW is evaluated in different hydro-geological settings of the aquifers indicating that it offers the least cost and least salinity in comparison with other scenarios. The great capabilities of both developed S/O models in identification of the best management solutions and the optimal coordinates and rates of the abstraction well and recharge well/pond are discussed. Both FE-GA and EPR-GA can be successfully employed by a robust decision support system. In the next phase of the study, the general impacts of sea level rise (SLR), associated with its transgression nature along the coastline surface on the saltwater intrusion mechanism are investigated in different hypothetical and real case studies of coastal aquifer systems. The results show that the rate and the amount of SWI are considerably greater in aquifers with flat shoreline slopes compared with those with steep slopes. The SWI process is followed by a significant depletion in quantity of freshwater resources at the end of the century. The situation is exacerbated with combined action of SLR and groundwater withdrawals. This finding is also confirmed by 3D simulation of SWI in a regional coastal aquifer (Wadi Ham aquifer) in the UAE subjected to the coupled actions of SLR and pumping.

Coastal wetlands store immense amounts of carbon (C) in vegetation and sediments, but this store of C is under threat from climate change. Accelerated sea level rise (SLR), which leads to saltwater intrusion, and more frequent periods of droughts will both impact biogeochemical cycling in wetlands. Coastal peat marshes are especially susceptible to saltwater intrusion and changes in water depth, but little is known about how exposure to salinity affects organic matter accumulation and peat stability. I investigated freshwater and brackish marsh responses to elevated salinity, greater inundation, drought, and increased nutrient loading. Elevated salinity pulses in a brackish marsh increased CO2 release from the marsh but only during dry-down. Elevated salinity increased root mortality at both a freshwater and brackish marsh. Under continuously elevated salinity in mesocosms, net ecosystem productivity (NEP) was unaffected by elevated salinity in a freshwater marsh exposed to brackish conditions (0 à 8 ppt), but NEP significantly increased with P enrichment. Elevated salinity led to a higher turnover of live to dead roots, resulting in a ~2-cm loss in soil elevation within 1 year of exposure to elevated salinity. When exposing a brackish marsh to more saline conditions (10 à 20 ppt), NEP, aboveground biomass production, and root growth all significantly decreased with elevated salinity, shifting the marsh from a net C sink to a net C source to the atmosphere. Elevated salinity (10 à 20 ppt) did not increase soil elevation loss, which was already occurring under brackish conditions, but when coupled with a drought event, elevation loss doubled. My findings suggest these hypotheses for the drivers and mechanisms of peat collapse. When freshwater marshes are first exposed to elevated salinity, soil structure and integrity are negatively affected through loss of live roots within the soil profile, leaving the peat vulnerable to collapse even though aboveground productivity and NEP may be unaffected. Subsequent dry-down events where water falls below the soil surface further accelerate peat collapse. Although saltwater intrusion into freshwater wetlands may initially stimulate primary productivity through a P subsidy, the impact of elevated salinity on root and soil structure has a greater deleterious effect and may ultimately be the factors that lead to the collapse of these marshes.

Coastal wetlands protect coastlines through efficient storage of organic carbon (OC) that decreases wetland vulnerability to sea level rise (SLR). Accelerated SLR is driving saltwater intrusion and altering vegetation communities and biogeochemical conditions in coastal wetlands with uncertain implications. We quantified changes in OC stocks and fluxes driven by 1) saltwater and phosphorous intrusion on freshwater and brackish marshes, 2) vegetation along an experimental saltmarsh to mangrove gradient, 3) saltwater intrusion and vegetation change across a marsh to mangrove ecotone, and 4) vegetation change and mangrove forest development along a marsh to mangrove ecotone. Increasing salinity in freshwater marshes decreased root biomass and soil elevation within one year. In brackish marshes, increased salinity decreased root productivity and biomass and increased root breakdown rate (k), while added salinity did not increase elevation loss. In our experimental marsh-mangrove ecotone, mangrove vegetation promoted higher organic carbon (OC) storage by increasing above and belowground biomass and reducing organic matter k. However, mangroves also increased belowground k, and decreased allochthonous marine subsidies, indicating the potential for OC storage trade-offs. In the Southeast Everglades, we identified strong interior-coastal gradients in soil stoichiometry and mangrove cover. Interior freshwater soil conditions increased k, while total soil OC stocks decreased toward the coast indicating that saltwater intrusion is driving large scale soil OC loss. In the southeast Everglades, mangrove expansion increased root biomass and root productivity, but did not mitigate the overall loss of OC stocks toward the coast. Similarly, in the southwest Everglades, saltwater intrusion drove a decrease in soil OC. However, mangrove encroachment drove a rapid recovery and increased OC stocks. Mangrove encroachment doubled aboveground biomass within the last ten years, increased it 30 times in the last 30 years, and doubled belowground biomass after 20 years. Our research shows that 1) moderate saltwater intrusion without mangrove encroachment will lead to a loss in OC stocks and potentially lead to wetland elevation loss and submergence, 2) in the absence of a change in saltwater intrusion, mangrove expansion can enhance OC storage 3) mangrove expansion can mitigate OC loss during saltwater intrusion, but this pattern depends on mangrove recruitment and ecosystem productivity.