Coastal wetlands protect coastlines through efficient storage of organic carbon (OC) that decreases wetland vulnerability to sea level rise (SLR). Accelerated SLR is driving saltwater intrusion and altering vegetation communities and biogeochemical conditions in coastal wetlands with uncertain implications. We quantified changes in OC stocks and fluxes driven by 1) saltwater and phosphorous intrusion on freshwater and brackish marshes, 2) vegetation along an experimental saltmarsh to mangrove gradient, 3) saltwater intrusion and vegetation change across a marsh to mangrove ecotone, and 4) vegetation change and mangrove forest development along a marsh to mangrove ecotone. Increasing salinity in freshwater marshes decreased root biomass and soil elevation within one year. In brackish marshes, increased salinity decreased root productivity and biomass and increased root breakdown rate (k), while added salinity did not increase elevation loss. In our experimental marsh-mangrove ecotone, mangrove vegetation promoted higher organic carbon (OC) storage by increasing above and belowground biomass and reducing organic matter k. However, mangroves also increased belowground k, and decreased allochthonous marine subsidies, indicating the potential for OC storage trade-offs. In the Southeast Everglades, we identified strong interior-coastal gradients in soil stoichiometry and mangrove cover. Interior freshwater soil conditions increased k, while total soil OC stocks decreased toward the coast indicating that saltwater intrusion is driving large scale soil OC loss. In the southeast Everglades, mangrove expansion increased root biomass and root productivity, but did not mitigate the overall loss of OC stocks toward the coast. Similarly, in the southwest Everglades, saltwater intrusion drove a decrease in soil OC. However, mangrove encroachment drove a rapid recovery and increased OC stocks. Mangrove encroachment doubled aboveground biomass within the last ten years, increased it 30 times in the last 30 years, and doubled belowground biomass after 20 years. Our research shows that 1) moderate saltwater intrusion without mangrove encroachment will lead to a loss in OC stocks and potentially lead to wetland elevation loss and submergence, 2) in the absence of a change in saltwater intrusion, mangrove expansion can enhance OC storage 3) mangrove expansion can mitigate OC loss during saltwater intrusion, but this pattern depends on mangrove recruitment and ecosystem productivity.

Reliability of water supply in the urban setting has become essential for communities to function and thrive. It is needed for more than mere human consumption and well-being. Although modern cities have water treatment and distribution systems, pressures from urbanization, population growth and the anticipated pressures of climate change are affecting the quality of water supply and the reliability of treatment and distribution systems. There is therefore an urgent need to take appropriate measures to improve the resilience of water supply systems before the impacts are irreversible. Improving the resilience of water supply systems can be a challenge. In the United States, there is increased awareness of aging, overtaxed and under designed water infrastructure. To date, resilience planning has been principally focused on improving preparedness and the restoration of critical services in communities following extreme events, such as hurricanes, earthquakes or terrorism, and less so on the slow-moving consequences of climate change, perceived as a less urgent threat. All these issues – increased pressure of urbanization and population growth, deteriorating infrastructure, together with the consequences the impacts of climate change may have on water systems and the apathetic view of the need for action – are what make the development of a solution difficult. This research proposes Integrated Urban Water Management as a new water management paradigm as one that can withstand contemporary issues as well as future climate threats, while increasing water supply resilience for communities. This research (1) focuses on analyzing the urban water cycle for potential vulnerabilities, (2) seeks to understand the benefits and challenges of integrating water infrastructure, (3) tests the level of sustainability in an IUWM system, (4) identifies critical thresholds ‘slow-moving’ climate change on water supply infrastructure, (5) performs a system-wide water and salt balance and (6) tests the system for resilience to salt water intrusion. Since coastal communities are subject to higher population densities, demands on resources, and exposed to greater threats than inland communities, this project utilizes a coastal community with integrated water infrastructure as a basis to better understand the benefits as well as the potential challenges of the proposed future paradigm (IUWM). The results of this research show that IUWM offers many options for sustainable practices as well as adaptability, a key aspect of resilience. The conclusions drawn from the scoping study, case study and modeling of water and salt flows within the urban water cycle offer relevant and transferable lessons for water management in coastal cities while they approach uncertain and alternative climate futures.

Den globala havsnivåhöjningen är en direkt följd av den globala uppvärmningen och kommer i framtiden påverka stora områden i kustregionen. Syftet med detta arbete är att öka förståelsen samt se hur Gotlands strandängar samt kustområden kan påverkas av havsnivåhöjningen år 2100 och se vilka eventuella följder detta kan leda till. Metoderna som har använts är GIS-analys och litteraturstudier. Höjdmodeller med olika upplösning jämfördes även för att undersöka vilka som lämpar sig till en liknande analys inför framtida studier. Resultatet visar att vid en havsnivåhöjning på 1 m kommer 97 % av strandängarna försvinna och vid en havsnivåhöjning på 2 m försvinner 99 % av de gotländska strandängarna. För att nybildande av strandängar kring kusten ska vara möjligt så krävs en markanvändning som stödjer detta i form av bete och slåtter. Jämförelsen mellan de olika höjdmodellerna visar att en upplösning på 50 m inte lämpar sig för en studie av detta slag men en upplösning på 10 m kan användas om en höjdmodell med bättre upplösning inte är tillgänglig. Kring kusten finns många bostäder och samhällen som kommer drabbas till stor del vid en havsnivåhöjning på 2 m och detta bör tas på stort allvar. Planering samt åtgärder kring denna problematik i framtiden bör prioriteras av Region Gotland. / Sea-level rise is a direct result of global warming. In the future, large coastal areas will be greatly affected by this phenomenon all over the world. In this thesis, the method is to assess the size of the potential area influenced by sea-level rise along the coast of Gotland. Methods used are literature studies and GIS-analysis. The aim of this thesis is to investigate how Gotland’s shore meadows and coastal areas will be affected by a sealevel rise in the year 2100 and find out possible consequences that could follow. Also, a comparison is made between digital elevation models of three different resolutions, 2 m, 10 m and 50 m, to find out which resolution that is the appropriate to assist studies like this in the future. The results show that in case of a sea-level rise with 1 m 97 % of the shore meadows will disappear and in case of a sea-level rise with 2 m 99 % of the shore meadows will disappear. For these important land areas to be preserved and recreated the land use must be modified for this purpose. The comparison between the different digital elevation models shows that a resolution of 50 m is not appropriate for this kind of study but a resolution of 10 m is acceptable when no better resolution is available. The coast of Gotland is a popular living area and many small communities lie there. Many of these areas are at risk of being affected by future sea-level rise and this threat must be taken seriously by the municipality of Gotland.

Climate change and anticipated impacts of sea level rise such as increased coastal erosion, inundation, flooding due to storm surges and salt water intrusion to freshwater resources will affect all the countries but mostly small island countries of oceans and low-lying lands along coastlines. Turkey having 8333 km of coastline including physically, ecologically and socio-economically important low-lying deltas should also prepare for the impacts of sea level rise as well as other impacts of climate change while participating in adaptation and mitigation efforts. Thus, a coastal vulnerability assessment of Turkey to sea level rise is needed both as a part of coastal zone management policies for sustainable development and as a guideline for resource allocation for preparation of adaptation options for upcoming problems due to sea level rise. In this study, a fuzzy coastal vulnerability assessment model (FCVI) of a region to sea level rise using physical and human activity indicators of impacts of sea level rise which use commonly available data are developed. The results enable decision makers to compare and rank different regions according to their vulnerabilities to sea level rise, to prioritize impacts of sea level rise on the region according to the vulnerability of the region to each impact and to determine the most vulnerable parameters for planning of adaptation measures to sea level rise. The sensitivity and uncertainty analysis performed for the results of the model (FCVI) is the first time application of a fuzzy uncertainty analysis model to coastal vulnerability assessments. These analysis ensure that the decision makers could be able to interpret the results of such vulnerability assessments based primarily on expert perceptions accurately enough. This in turn, would increase the confidence levels of adaptation measures and as well as accelerate implementation of adaptation of coastal areas to climate change. The developed coastal vulnerability assessment model is applied successfully to determine the vulnerability of G&ouml / ksu, G&ouml / cek and Amasra regions of Turkey that have different geological, ecological and socio-economical properties. The results of the site studies show that G&ouml / ksu has high vulnerability, G&ouml / cek has moderate vulnerability and Amasra shows low vulnerability to sea level rise. These results are in accordance with the general literature on impacts of sea level rise at different geomorphological coastal areas thus the applicability of fuzzy vulnerability assessment model (FCVI) to coastal areas is validated.

Rapid development and urbanization of the Lower Florida Keys in the last 30 years has fragmented the habitat of the Lower Keys marsh rabbit (Sylvilagus palustris hefneri) and threatened it with extinction. Current threats exist at multiple spatiotemporal scales and include threats due to development, invasive species, and global climate change. On Boca Chica Key, the Lower Keys marsh rabbit (LKMR) exists as a metapopulation on Naval Air Station-Key West (NASKW). I conducted a population viability analysis to determine the metapopulation's risk of extinction under multiple management scenarios by developing a spatially-explicit, stage-structured, stochastic matrix model using the programs RAMAS Metapop and ArcGIS. These management scenarios include clearance of airfield vegetation, habitat conversion, and control of feral cats as an invasive species. Model results provided the Navy with relative risk estimates under these different scenarios. Airfield clearance with habitat conversion increased extinction risk, but when coupled with feral cat control, risk was decreased. Because of the potential of sea-level rise due to human-induced global climate change, and its projected impact on the biodiversity of the Florida Keys, I estimated the impacts of rising sea levels on LKMR across its geographic distribution under scenarios of no, low (0.3m), medium (0.6m), and high (0.9m) sea-level rise. I also investigated impacts due to 2 treatments (allowing vegetation to migrate upslope and not allowing migration), and 2 land-use planning decisions (protection and abandonment of humandominated areas). Not surprisingly, under both treatments and both land-use planning decisions, I found a general trend of decreasing total potential LKMR habitat with increasing sea-level rise. Not allowing migration and protecting human-dominated areas both tended to decrease potential LKMR habitat as compared with allowing migration and abandoning human-dominated areas. In conclusion, conservation strategies at multiple scales need to be implemented in order to reduce threats to LKMR, such as development, invasive species, and global climate change.

Vietnam is considered as one of the countries having rich resources from forest and sea, with a high average annual rainfall. However, in view of IWRA, water volume per capita annually in Vietnam is lower than the standard for nations having water resources at average level. Vietnam was recognized by the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) as having three out of more than 200 biological zones of the world. Flora and fauna in Vietnam are very rich and abundant, but due to indiscriminate exploitation, along with weak management, biodiversity levels are significantly reduced. This is also one of the causes of environmental pollution and degradation in Vietnam, besides the impacts from production activities, population migration from rural areas to urban areas, rapid urbanization, climate change and sea level rise, etc. / Tảo đóng vai trò quan trọng trong mạng lưới thức ăn và chu trình sinh địa hóa của thủy vực và chúng chịu sự chi phối của nhiều yếu tố môi trường như ánh sáng, pH, nhiệt độ và dinh dưỡng. Nghiên cứu này trình bày đa dạng thành phần loài và biến động sinh khối thực vật phù du tại hồchứa Hòa Bình từ tháng 3 đến tháng 12 năm 2011. Các mẫu thực vật nổi được thu thập hàng tháng tại 4 điểm. Kết quả đã xác định được 6 lớp tảo chính bao gồm: Vi khuẩn lam, tảo lục, tảo silic, tảo mắt, tảo giáp và tảo lông roi hai rãnh. Nhóm tảo silic và Vi khuẩn lam chiếm ưu thế với độ phong phú tương đối là 61% và 32% tương ứng trong quần xã thực vật nổi. Vi khuẩn lam dạng tập đoàn và dạng sợi (Microcystis aeruginosa, M. wesenberg, Oscillatoria sp. tương ứng) chiếm ưu thế trong quần xã thực vật nổi vào các thời điểm đầu hè và mùa thu (tháng 4 và tháng 9). Tổng mật độ tế bào thực vật nổi dao động từ 84210 đến 100 x106 cell/L. Mật độ thực vật nổi biển động theo mùa với sinh khối tê bào cao vào đầu hè và mùa đông (tháng 4 và tháng 12) và sinh khối tếbào thấp vào các mùa hè và thu (tháng 6 đến tháng 10).

Sea level rise (SLR) is one of the most damaging impacts associated with climate change. The objective of this study is to develop a comprehensive framework to identify the spatial patterns of sea level in the historical records, project regional mean sea levels in the future, and assess the corresponding impacts on the coastal communities. The first part of the study suggests a spatial pattern recognition methodology to characterize the spatial variations of sea level and to investigate the sea level footprints of climatic signals. A technique based on artificial neural network is proposed to reconstruct average sea levels for the characteristic regions identified. In the second part of the study, a spatial dynamic system model (DSM) is developed to simulate and project the changes in regional sea levels and sea surface temperatures (SST) under different development scenarios of the world. The highest sea levels are predicted under the scenario A1FI, ranging from 71 cm to 86 cm (relative to 1990 global mean sea level); the lowest predicted sea levels are under the scenario B1, ranging from 51 cm to 64 cm (relative to 1990 global mean sea level). Predicted sea levels and SST's of the Indian Ocean are significantly lower than those of the Pacific and the Atlantic Ocean under all six scenarios. The last part of this dissertation assesses the inundation impacts of projected regional SLR on three representative coastal U.S. states through a geographic information system (GIS) analysis. Critical issues in the inundation impact assessment process are identified and discussed.

Recent events such as the New Orleans floods and the Japanese tsunami of 2011 have highlighted the uncertainty in the quantification of the magnitude of natural hazards. The research undertaken here has focussed on the uncertainty in evaluating storm surge magnitudes based on a range of statistical techniques including the Generalised Extreme Value distribution, Joint Probability and Monte Carlo simulations. To support the evaluation of storm surge frequency magnitude relationships a unique hard copy observed sea level data set, recording hourly observations, was acquired and digitised for Devonport, Plymouth, creating a 40 year data set. In conjunction with Devonport data, Newlyn (1915-2012) tide gauge records were analysed, creating a data set of 2 million data points. The different statistical techniques analysed led to an uncertainty range of 0.4 m for a 1 in 250 year storm surge event, and 0.7 m for a 1 in 1000 storm surge event. This compares to a 0.5 m uncertainty range between the low and high prediction for sea level rise by 2100. The Geographical Information system modelling of the uncertainty indicated that for a 1 in 1000 year event the level uncertainty (0.7 m) led to an increase of 100% of buildings and 50% of total land affect. Within the study area of south-west England there are several critical structures including a nuclear licensed site. Incorporating the uncertainty in storm surge and wave height predictions indicated that the site would be potentially affected today with the combination of a 1 in 1000 year storm surge event coincident with a 1 in 1000 wave. In addition to the evaluation of frequency magnitude relations this study has identified several trends in the data set. Over the data period sea level rise is modelled as an exponential growth (0.0001mm/yr2), indicating the modelled sea level rise of 1.9 mm/yr and 2.2 mm/yr for Newlyn and Devonport, will potentially increase over the next century by a minimum of 0.2 m by 2100.The increase in storm frequency identified as part of this analysis has been equated to the rise in sea level, rather than an increase in the severity of storms, with decadal variations in the observed frequency, potentially linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation. The identification as part of this study of a significant uncertainty in the evaluation of storm surge frequency magnitude relationships has global significance in the evaluation of natural hazards. Guidance on the evaluation of external hazards currently does not adequately consider the effect of uncertainty; an uncertainty of 0.7 m identified within this study could potentially affect in the region of 500 million people worldwide living close to the coast.

La région du Pamir - Karakoram - Himalaya (PKH) constitue la plus grande réserve de glace terrestre après les régions polaires. Cependant, l'évolution récente de ces glaciers, indicateurs privilégiés du changement climatique en haute altitude, reste encore mal connue, du fait notamment de difficultés d'accès et de conditions climatiques qui rendent délicate l'acquisition de mesures in situ. L'objectif de cette thèse est de contribuer à l'amélioration des connaissances sur l'évolution globale des glaces du PKH au cours de la dernière décennie, en s'appuyant sur des images satellite et des modèles numériques de terrain (MNTs). Une premièreméthodologie a été développée pour assurer le suivi automatique de la distribution spatiale et de l'évolution temporelle des lacs glaciaires à partir d'images Landsat entre 1990 et 2009 sur sept zones d'études réparties le long du PKH. Ainsi, une certaine disparité des types, tailles et évolutions des lacs entre la partie orientale et occidentale du PKH a été mise en évidence. Sur la période de temps considérée, la superficie des lacs a légèrement diminué à l'ouest (Karakoram et Hindu Kush), a été en très nette augmentation à l'est (Népal et Bouthan) et relativement stable sur la partie centrale (Inde du nord-ouest). Le bilan de masse des glaciers a ensuite été calculé, à partir des variations d'épaisseurs mesurées en comparant deuxMNTs, acquis à deux dates différentes, et issus de lamission SRTM et du satellite SPOT5. Cette méthode implique un certain nombre de corrections et d'ajustements au préalable, afin de garantir des mesures les moins biaisées possible. Ainsi, la différence de résolution spatiale initiale des MNTs peut être à l'origine d'un biais fonction de l'altitude, de même que la pénétration des ondes radar de la mission SRTM dans la neige et la glace est à prendre en compte le cas échéant, pour ne pas sous-estimer les altitudes sur les glaciers. Là encore, on observe des disparités entre les différents bilans de masse régionaux sur la période 1999-2011, avec des pertes de masse modérées sur l'Himalaya central et oriental(-0.30±0.08 m a-1 w.e.), plus accentuées sur l'Himalaya occidental (-0.43±0.09 m a-1 w.e.) et des gains de masse plus à l'ouest, pour les glaciers des massifs du Pamir (+0.14±0.11 m a-1 w.e.) et du Karakoram (+0.10±0.20 m a-1 w.e.). Ces résultats confirment donc l'anomalie des glaciers du Karakoram et suggèrent des comportements similaires au Pamir. Le bilan de masse global des glaciers du PKH est estimé à -0.13±0.06 m a-1 w.e. / The Pamir - Karakoram - Himalaya (PKH) mountain range is considered to be the largest terrestrial ice reservoir outside polar regions. However, the recent evolution of these glaciers, recognized as valuable high-altitude climatic indicators, remains poorly known, mainly because of accessibility issues and harsh meteorologic conditions that hamper field work and in situ observations. The aim of this thesis is therefore to improve the knowledge of glacier changes in PKH and study their evolution over the past decade, based on satellite images and digital elevation models (DEMs). We first developed automatic classification algorithms to monitor the spatial distribution and temporal evolution of glacial lakes between 1990 and 2009 along the PKH, based on Landsat images. We thereby highlight different types, sizes and evolutions of glacial lakes between eastern and western PKH. During the study period the total glacial lake area slightly decreased in the west (Hindu Kush and Karakoram), greatly increased in the east (Nepal, Bhutan) and remained stable in the central part (north-west India). We then computed the mass balance of PKH glaciers from elevation changes measured by comparing two DEMs, acquired ∼10 years appart, by the SRTM mission and the SPOT5 satellite. This method relies on a precise relative adjustment (horizontal and vertical) of the DEMs to remove possible systematic biases within glacier elevation changes. The difference in the original spatial resolution of the DEMs can result in an elevation-dependent bias, as well as the radar penetration into snow and ice can seriously underestimate glacier elevation in the case of a DEM derived from radar data such as SRTM. The spatial pattern of regional glacier mass balances between 1999 and 2011 turns out to be contrasted, with moderatemass losses in eastern and central Himalaya (-0.30±0.08m yr-1 w.e.), stronger in western Himalaya (-0.43±0.09 m yr-1 w.e.) and mass gains further west, for Pamir(+0.14±0.11 m yr-1 w.e.) and Karakoram glaciers (+0.10±0.20 m yr-1 w.e.). The global mass balance of PKH glaciers is estimated at -0.13±0.06 m yr-1 w.e.

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No. of bitstreams: 1 sanches_fhc_dr_bot.pdf: 1162414 bytes, checksum: c1e3b3606924d406d77ac6623c77d329 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-02-23 / Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq) / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) / Os caranguejos-chama-maré são espécies semiterrestres, sociais, que habitam margens de praias abertas, manguezais e marismas, tanto em zonas tropicais como temperadas. Cada indivíduo concentra suas atividades em torno de uma toca, com as fêmeas possuindo os dois quelípodo de mesmo tamanho, enquanto os machos possuem um dos quelípodo hipertrofiado, usados como armas durante interações agressivas para proteção do território ou durante a corte em um movimento característico de display, sendo excelentes modelos para estudos de competição e seleção sexual. Além disso, a escavação do solo para construção de suas tocas acarreta na maior oxigenação do mesmo, altera as condições de drenagem, distribuição de partículas, disponibilidade de matérias orgânicas e nutrientes, sendo assim considerados engenheiros do ecossistema. Portanto, alterações nos manguezais que influenciam na distribuição desse grupo de caranguejos podem intensificar potenciais impactos nessas regiões. A presente tese de doutorado foi dividida em três capítulos. O estudo do capítulo 1 foi realizado em manguezais do litoral centro/sul do Estado de São Paulo, onde investigamos o efeito do sombreamento na distribuição espacial, comportamento e fisiologia de duas espécies de caranguejos-chama-marés: Leptuca leptodactyla e Leptuca urugayensis. Já o estudo do capítulo 2 foi concretizado durante período de doutorado sanduíche no exterior, realizado na Austrália. Nele, examinamos o efeito da migração de espécies de áreas adjacentes (Tubuca elegans e Tubuca signata), relacionados à elevação do nível do mar, sobre o comportamento social e reprodutivo de outra espécie desse grupo de caranguejos, Austruca mjoebergi. Ainda durante o período de doutorado sanduíche, realizei o estudo do capítulo 3 com ênfase em seleção sexual de caranguejos-chama-maré (Austruca mjoebergi), mais relacionado à linha de pesquisa da minha orientadora no exterior, onde examinamos a precisão e o tempo de escolha das fêmeas em relação à velocidade, quantidade e complexidade dos displays dos machos. / Fiddler crabs are semi-terrestrial and social species that inhabit open beaches margin, mangroves and salt marshes, both in tropical and temperate zones. Each individual concentrates its activities in their territory surrounding a burrow, with females possessing both chelipodes of the same size, while males have one of them hypertrophied, used as weapons during aggressive interactions to protect the territory or during waving displays to attract females, being excellent models for studies of competition and sexual selection. In addition, the excavation of the soil for the construction of its burrows leads to increased oxygenation, changes in drainage conditions, particle distribution, availability of organic matter and nutrients, being considered thus ecosystem engineers. Therefore, alterations in mangroves that influence the distribution of this group of crabs may intensify potential impacts into these regions. The present PhD thesis was divided into three chapters. The study of chapter 1 was carried out in mangroves of the central / southern coast of the state of São Paulo, where we investigated the shading effect on the spatial distribution, behavior and physiology of two species of fiddler crabs: Leptuca leptodactyla and Leptuca urugayensis. The study of chapter 2 was made during a doctorate period sandwich abroad, held in Australia. We examined the effect of the migration of species of adjacent areas (Tubuca elegans and Tubuca signata), related to the elevation of sea level, on the social and reproductive behavior of another species of this group of crabs, Austruca mjoebergi. Also during the sandwich doctorate period, I conducted the study of chapter 3 with an emphasis on sexual selection of Austruca mjoebergi, more related to the research line of my supervisor abroad, where we examined the accuracy and the time of females in relation to the speed, quantity and complexity of male’s displays. / CNPq: 140515/2014-3