La grotte de Lascaux (inscrite au patrimoine mondial de l’UNESCO et l’une des plus connues au monde) nécessite, dans le cadre de sa conservation et suite aux aléas subis depuis sa découverte, une attention particulière tant pour elle-même que pour son environnement. L’utilisation d’une méthode géophysique, la Tomographie de Résistivité électrique (TRE) qui est une méthode non intrusive par excellence, est donc proposée pour la reconnaissance du milieu karstique l’environnant.Un suivi temporel par TRE a été mise en oeuvre pour caractériser l’amont hydraulique de la grotte et surveiller la variation temporelle de la résistivité des terrains. A l’aide d’analyses statistiques, et en couplant les données microclimatiques aux résultats d’un suivi temporel de vingt-deux mois, nous avons montré la capacité de ce type de mesures à caractériser l’environnement épikarstique de la grotte, particulièrement les zones d’alimentation et celles permettant l’infiltration des eaux pluviales. Une modélisation du débit d’un écoulement situé à l’entrée de la grotte est proposée à partir des données de résistivité dans la zone d’alimentation identifiée au cours du suivi. Ce modèle a la capacité de prédire les arrêts et les reprises des écoulements dans la grotte, éventuellement des évènements journaliers.A partir des données de résistivité issues d’une prospection 3D du site, des modélisations géostatistiques par krigeage ordinaire et par indicatrice ont été effectuées permettant des représentations spatiales en fonction de la résistivité des terrains. Ces modèles se sont révélés extrêmement instructifs par l’imagerie de l’environnement karstique de la grotte de Lascauxqui en a résulté. Les limites des formations détritiques et des calcaires sont identifiées à l’est et l’ouest du site. A l’intérieur des calcaires, on retrouve, bien sûr, les anomalies conductrices déjà identifiées au cours du suivi temporel mais aussi leur extension spatiale. Ainsi, on a pu mettre en évidence la continuité spatiale de certaines anomalies.Le suivi temporel par TRE a permis la compréhension de la structure et du fonctionnement de l’alimentation de l’épikarst. Les modèles géostatistiques 3D ont montré leur efficacité pour la caractérisation de l’environnement de la grotte. Les résultats aideraient à proposer des conseils pour la protection du milieu environnant la grotte et ainsi pour la préservation de cette dernière. / The Lascaux cave, one of the most important prehistoric caves in the world, located in Dordogne (24, France) needs particular attention both for itself and for the environment interms of conservation and vulnerability since its discovery. Geophysical methods in particular Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) enable us, in a non-invasive way, to monitor the karsticenvironment.A Time-Lapse monitoring by ERT was carried out next to the cave. Together with analysis of the local effective rainfall (ground water recharge) and the flow in the cave, the monitoringhelped us to identify an area where upstream underground water is probably stored e.g. arecharge zone. There is a large electrical contrast between the surrounding limestone and theprobable recharge zone. Then, a multivariate analysis through the resistivity values allowed usto characterize the model blocks, showing a specific behavior over time, especially the blockswith the lowest electrical resistivity. A prediction model of the flow in relation with the recharge zone succeeded to predict the beginning and the end of flow, even the daily event withextremely high value of flow.In order to visualize the environment in 3D condition, a geostatistical modelling was then applied to the resistivity values. The geostatistical models can emphasize the limit betweenthe limestone promontory and the clayey/sandy formations to the east/west part of the site. In the limestone promontory, the models also showed the possible connection between theanomalous conductive areas that may have a special consequence in this karstic environment.The Time-Lapse monitoring by ERT allows us to understand the karstic structures andrecharge phenomena. The 3D geostatistical modeling showed efficiency for the characterization of the cave environment. Those results can help to provide advices for the cave preservation.

我國每十年進行一次人口普查，以取得國人經常活動地區的資訊，作為中央及地方政府政策規劃的參考。然而，十年一次的人口普查無法即時反映各地區人口特質及其活動，隨著普查完訪率逐年下降、個人資料保護法意識抬頭等趨勢，普查的涵蓋率及其資料品質愈加受到質疑，近年各國思考以其他資料蒐集方式取代傳統普查。我國實施全民健康保險制度已逾20年，民眾納保率超過99%，因此本文以全民健保資料庫為研究素材，透過個人就醫行為探討國人經常活動地區，透過剖析各種疾病的就醫行為，可作為政府評估醫療資源規劃的參考。 本文以全民健保資料庫為依據，探討我國國民選擇醫療地點的特性，作為經常活動地區（或是常住地）的輔助參考。過去研究大多利用上呼吸道感染（俗稱感冒）作為估計常住地的依據，但每年平均只有接近70%國人會因感冒而就醫，其中青壯年、老年人因感冒而就醫的比例明顯較低，以此作為常住地的估計基礎恐有涵蓋率不足之虞。本文依據健保資料庫中的2005年百萬人抽樣檔，包括就醫門診處方及治療明細檔(CD)、承保資料檔(ID)等資料，比較數種常住地判斷的參考準則（包括感冒就醫），分析各方法所觀察到資料的特性及限制，評估以這些準則作為判斷常住地的可行性。 結論：本文提出除了感冒就醫之外的三種常住地推估準則，分別為：因為感冒或是消化就醫、單次健保補助金額較低、基層院所就醫。以樣本涵蓋率量而言，三種準則都能改善感冒就醫涵蓋率的不足，其中以單次金額與基層院所就醫的樣本數增加最多。另外，如果與所有門診資料、普查資料的人口資料比較，發現單次金額與基層院所就醫推估的人口年齡結構最為接近，但單次金額的縣市（地區）結構與普查資料的差異較大。 限制：受限於青壯年人口就醫率較低，本文提出的幾種常住地判斷準則在20歲至44歲的涵蓋率仍然偏低，建議未來研究可經由權數調整修正樣本的年齡等人口結構及比例，或是仰賴就醫以外的紀錄推估，但須考量資料串連及品質等問題。 / Many countries conduct population census every 10 years to acquire the information of population structure and its trend, but the information is not likely to updated since the 10-years period is usually too long. Moreover, the low response rate of questionnaire and the enforcement of Personal Information Protection Act further jeopardize the population census and many question its data quality. Thus, quite a lot of countries are seeking alternatives for collecting the information of de jure population, replacing the regular population census. In this study, we explore the possibility of using the data from National Health Insurance (NHI) Research Database for acquiring the information of de jure population in Taiwan. Taiwan started the NHI in 1995 and more than 99% of Taiwan population are covered. Since the medical accessibility created by the NHI, Taiwan’s people tend to visit medical institutions near to where they live, when they have minor diseases. Past studies showed that the upper respiratory tract infection (or cold) is a popular choice of minor diseases. We will evaluate if the cold is a good candidate and propose alternative criteria for the definition of minor diseases. We found that the proportion of populations with upper respiratory tract infection is about 70% and it is age dependent, with the elderly the lowest. On contrary, the records of smaller amounts and the records of physician clinics (or general practice clinics) can cover more than 90% population, much better than the records of upper respiratory tract infection. The records of digestive system diseases and upper respiratory tract infection can also increase the coverage of elderly population. We recommend using the medical records of smaller amounts to acquire the de jure population.

Dans les essais randomisés conduits en oncologie médicale, l'effet des traitements est le plus souvent évalué sur plusieurs critères de jugement, dont un ou plusieurs critères de type temps jusqu'à événement. Une analyse globale de l'effet d'un traitement intègre les résultats observés sur l'ensemble des critères de jugement pertinent. Un des objectifs de notre travail était de réaliser une revue systématique de la littérature évaluant les méthodes de recueil, d'analyse et de rapport des événements indésirables et des critères de jugement rapportés par les patients dans les essais de phase III en oncologie médicale. Cette revue a mis en évidence une grande hétérogénéité des méthodes utilisées. De plus les rapports des essais omettaient souvent certaines informations indispensables pour évaluer la validité des résultats rapportés en toxicité ou sur les critères de jugement rapportés par les patients. Un autre objectif de cette thèse était de développer une extension de la méthode des comparaisons par paire généralisées permettant d'évaluer de façon non biaisée la propension au succès en présence de censure lorsqu'un des critères de jugement est de type temps jusqu'à événement. Cette thèse avait également pour objectif de montrer comment les comparaisons par paire pouvaient être utilisées afin d'évaluer la balance bénéfice-risque de traitements innovants dans les essais randomisés. De la même façon, la propension globale au succès permet d'évaluer le bénéfice thérapeutique global lorsqu'un effet positif est attendu sur plusieurs critères de jugement / In medical oncology randomized trials, treatment effect is usually assessed on several endpoints, including one or more time-to-event endpoints. An overall analysis of the treatment effect may include the outcomes observed on all the relevant endpoints. A systematic review of medical oncology phase III trials was conducted. We extracted the methods used to record, analyze and report adverse events and patient-reported outcomes. Our findings show that some methodological aspects of adverse events or patient-reported outcomes collection and analysis were poorly reported. Even when reported, the methods used were highly heterogeneous. Another objective was to develop an extension of the generalized pairwise comparison procedure for time-to-event variables. The extended procedure provides an unbiased estimation of the chance of a better outcome even in presence of highly censored observations. Then, we show how the chance of an overall better outcome can be used to assess the benefit-risk balance of treatment in randomized trials. When a benefit is expected on more than one endpoint, the chance of an overall better outcome assesses the overall therapeutic benefit. The test of the null hypothesis is more powerful than the test based on one single endpoint

La vanille, utilisée en alimentation et parfumerie, est une orchidée originaire d’Amérique centrale et maintenant cultivée dans l’océan indien (Vanilla planifolia, 97% de la production mondiale) et dans l’océan pacifique (Vanilla tahitensis, 3% de la production mondiale, essentiellement en Polynésie française).J’ai montré que Vanilla tahitensis était aussi sensible que Vanilla planifolia à la fusariose et représentait la maladie principale de la vanille en Polynésie française comme dans le reste des zones de production des vanilles aromatiques. J’ai participé à démontrer qu’il s’agissait d’une nouvelle espèce de Fusarium oxysporum « f. sp. radicis-vanillae » car elle ne s’attaque qu’au cortex racinaire et ne pénètre que peu dans les tissus vasculaires. J’ai suivi pendant 4 ans l’évolution qualitative et quantitative des dégâts dus à 6 pathogènes et ravageurs dans 51 plantations à Raiatea, principalement des ombrières. J’ai ainsi montré que, contrairement aux autres pathologies et ravageurs, la fusariose connaissait un développement presqu’exponentiel ces 3 dernières années, comme c’est également le cas sur Vanilla planifolia dans le reste du monde. Ayant, par ailleurs, conduit un travail d’enquête auprès des producteurs, j’ai indiqué (l’analyse statistique et la modélisation afférente ne sont pas terminées) que le soin apporté aux lianes par les producteurs était essentiel au bon contrôle de la fusariose. / Vanilla species, used for aroma and flagrances, are orchidaceae originated from central America. They are now mostly cultivated in the Indian ocean (Vanilla planifolia, 97%, mainly in Madagascar, Indonesia, India and smaller islands from the Indian ocean) and in the Pacific ocean (Vanilla tahitensis, 3%, mainly French Polynesia).I have shown that Vanilla tahitensis was as susceptible as Vanilla planifolia towards fusarium root rot. It does represent the major losses on Vanilla tahitensis in Raiatea like reported for all the other areas of vanilla production worldly. I have participated to show that this fungus was delimited to root cortex maceration and did not invade vascular tissues, reason for which we use a new name for this pathogen : Fusarium oxysporum f sp radicis-vanillae.I have followed the etiological and epidemiological characteristics of this disease and of 5 other pathogens and insects on 51 Vanilla plantations, mainly shade-houses, during 4 years, for each vine in cohort analysis manner. I have shown, among this 6 biological causes of loss, fusarium root rot was the only one to present an exponential trajectory within the last 3 years, while the other causes remain stable or display a year increase because of climatic reasons. I did interview all the producers owning these plantations and analyze statistically the answers to the very numerous questions. The statistical and modelling analysis is not yet finished. Nevertheless, I can already claim that regular vine cleaning is absolutely necessary to maintain the vanilla plantations healthy, something which, unfortunately is not a rule for everyone.

<p>Велике воде су сложена појава како у погледу фактора који је изазивају, тако и<br />у&nbsp; погледу&nbsp; њеног&nbsp; утицаја&nbsp; на&nbsp; екосистем&nbsp; и друштво.&nbsp; У&nbsp; дисертацији&nbsp; је&nbsp; приказана предност&nbsp; анализе&nbsp; великих&nbsp; вода,&nbsp; са&nbsp; две променљиве&nbsp; (запремине&nbsp; и&nbsp; трајање),&nbsp; у односу&nbsp; на&nbsp; уобичајену&nbsp; анализу&nbsp; са&nbsp; једном вредношћу&nbsp; (најчешће&nbsp; максимални годишњи&nbsp; протицај).&nbsp; Резултати&nbsp; добијени статистичком анализом великих вода, које су издвојене методом&nbsp; прага су показали да имају већу применљивост у водопривреди него&nbsp; методе&nbsp; које&nbsp; користе&nbsp; стандардне вредности,&nbsp; јер&nbsp; дају&nbsp; конкретне&nbsp; вредности могућих&nbsp; количина&nbsp; воде&nbsp; (запремине великих вода)&nbsp; Метода прага је примењена на&nbsp; 22&nbsp; станица&nbsp; на&nbsp; четири&nbsp; највеће&nbsp; реке Панонског&nbsp; басена&nbsp; (Дунав,&nbsp; Сава,&nbsp; Тиса&nbsp; и Драва) за период 1964-2013. година што до сад&nbsp; представља&nbsp; највећи&nbsp; узорак&nbsp; на&nbsp; овако великом&nbsp; географском&nbsp; подручју.&nbsp; Као&nbsp; праг за&nbsp; издвајање&nbsp; великих&nbsp; вода&nbsp; узета&nbsp; је вредност&nbsp; Q10,&nbsp; јер&nbsp; је&nbsp; циљ&nbsp; био&nbsp; анализа просторних&nbsp; и&nbsp; временских&nbsp; карактеристика екстремних&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; великих вода у највећих река Панонског басена. Избор прага утицао је и на&nbsp; избор&nbsp; методе&nbsp; годишњих&nbsp; максимума&nbsp; за статистичку&nbsp; анализу&nbsp; карактеристика великих&nbsp; вода.&nbsp; За&nbsp; одређивање&nbsp; параметра&nbsp; теоријских&nbsp; расподела&nbsp; коришћени&nbsp; су&nbsp; L-моменти&nbsp; који&nbsp; дају&nbsp; поузданије&nbsp; оцене параметара&nbsp; од&nbsp; обичних&nbsp; момената.&nbsp; У досадашњим&nbsp; радовима,&nbsp; који&nbsp; су анализирали&nbsp; карактеристике&nbsp; великих&nbsp; вода методом&nbsp; годишњих&nbsp; максимума,&nbsp; функција расподеле&nbsp; се&nbsp; унапред&nbsp; одабирала,&nbsp; а&nbsp; не&nbsp; на основу&nbsp; тестова&nbsp; сагласности&nbsp; и&nbsp; провере графика вероватноће, као што је урађено у овој&nbsp; дисертацији.&nbsp; За&nbsp; проверу&nbsp; сагласности годишњег максимума запремина и трајања коришћени&nbsp; су&nbsp; тестови&nbsp; Колмогоров-Смирнов&nbsp; и&nbsp; Крамер&nbsp; &ndash;Мизес,&nbsp; на&nbsp; основу којих су изабране меродавне расподеле за прорачун&nbsp; великих&nbsp; вода&nbsp; различитих повратних&nbsp; периода&nbsp; на&nbsp; станицама,&nbsp; и обрнуто.&nbsp; Помоћу&nbsp; L-момент&nbsp; дијаграма&nbsp; (LCs/L-Ck)&nbsp; утврђена&nbsp; је&nbsp; хомогеност&nbsp; региона, у&nbsp; овом&nbsp; случају&nbsp; Панонског&nbsp; басена,&nbsp; као&nbsp; иизабрана&nbsp; регионална&nbsp; расподела&nbsp; (LN)&nbsp; за запремине и трајање велике воде.&nbsp; Кластер анализа коришћена&nbsp; је као друга метода за издвајање&nbsp; хомогених&nbsp; региона.&nbsp; На&nbsp; основу ове&nbsp; анализе&nbsp; у&nbsp; Панонском&nbsp; басену&nbsp; су издвојена&nbsp; три&nbsp; региона&nbsp; која&nbsp; имају&nbsp; исте карактеистике.</p> / <p>Velike vode su složena pojava kako u pogledu faktora koji je izazivaju, tako i<br />u&nbsp; pogledu&nbsp; njenog&nbsp; uticaja&nbsp; na&nbsp; ekosistem&nbsp; i društvo.&nbsp; U&nbsp; disertaciji&nbsp; je&nbsp; prikazana prednost&nbsp; analize&nbsp; velikih&nbsp; voda,&nbsp; sa&nbsp; dve promenljive&nbsp; (zapremine&nbsp; i&nbsp; trajanje),&nbsp; u odnosu&nbsp; na&nbsp; uobičajenu&nbsp; analizu&nbsp; sa&nbsp; jednom vrednošću&nbsp; (najčešće&nbsp; maksimalni godišnji&nbsp; proticaj).&nbsp; Rezultati&nbsp; dobijeni statističkom analizom velikih voda, koje su izdvojene metodom&nbsp; praga su pokazali da imaju veću primenljivost u vodoprivredi nego&nbsp; metode&nbsp; koje&nbsp; koriste&nbsp; standardne vrednosti,&nbsp; jer&nbsp; daju&nbsp; konkretne&nbsp; vrednosti mogućih&nbsp; količina&nbsp; vode&nbsp; (zapremine velikih voda)&nbsp; Metoda praga je primenjena na&nbsp; 22&nbsp; stanica&nbsp; na&nbsp; četiri&nbsp; najveće&nbsp; reke Panonskog&nbsp; basena&nbsp; (Dunav,&nbsp; Sava,&nbsp; Tisa&nbsp; i Drava) za period 1964-2013. godina što do sad&nbsp; predstavlja&nbsp; najveći&nbsp; uzorak&nbsp; na&nbsp; ovako velikom&nbsp; geografskom&nbsp; području.&nbsp; Kao&nbsp; prag za&nbsp; izdvajanje&nbsp; velikih&nbsp; voda&nbsp; uzeta&nbsp; je vrednost&nbsp; Q10,&nbsp; jer&nbsp; je&nbsp; cilj&nbsp; bio&nbsp; analiza prostornih&nbsp; i&nbsp; vremenskih&nbsp; karakteristika ekstremnih&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; velikih voda u najvećih reka Panonskog basena. Izbor praga uticao je i na&nbsp; izbor&nbsp; metode&nbsp; godišnjih&nbsp; maksimuma&nbsp; za statističku&nbsp; analizu&nbsp; karakteristika velikih&nbsp; voda.&nbsp; Za&nbsp; određivanje&nbsp; parametra&nbsp; teorijskih&nbsp; raspodela&nbsp; korišćeni&nbsp; su&nbsp; L-momenti&nbsp; koji&nbsp; daju&nbsp; pouzdanije&nbsp; ocene parametara&nbsp; od&nbsp; običnih&nbsp; momenata.&nbsp; U dosadašnjim&nbsp; radovima,&nbsp; koji&nbsp; su analizirali&nbsp; karakteristike&nbsp; velikih&nbsp; voda metodom&nbsp; godišnjih&nbsp; maksimuma,&nbsp; funkcija raspodele&nbsp; se&nbsp; unapred&nbsp; odabirala,&nbsp; a&nbsp; ne&nbsp; na osnovu&nbsp; testova&nbsp; saglasnosti&nbsp; i&nbsp; provere grafika verovatnoće, kao što je urađeno u ovoj&nbsp; disertaciji.&nbsp; Za&nbsp; proveru&nbsp; saglasnosti godišnjeg maksimuma zapremina i trajanja korišćeni&nbsp; su&nbsp; testovi&nbsp; Kolmogorov-Smirnov&nbsp; i&nbsp; Kramer&nbsp; &ndash;Mizes,&nbsp; na&nbsp; osnovu kojih su izabrane merodavne raspodele za proračun&nbsp; velikih&nbsp; voda&nbsp; različitih povratnih&nbsp; perioda&nbsp; na&nbsp; stanicama,&nbsp; i obrnuto.&nbsp; Pomoću&nbsp; L-moment&nbsp; dijagrama&nbsp; (LCs/L-Ck)&nbsp; utvrđena&nbsp; je&nbsp; homogenost&nbsp; regiona, u&nbsp; ovom&nbsp; slučaju&nbsp; Panonskog&nbsp; basena,&nbsp; kao&nbsp; iizabrana&nbsp; regionalna&nbsp; raspodela&nbsp; (LN)&nbsp; za zapremine i trajanje velike vode.&nbsp; Klaster analiza korišćena&nbsp; je kao druga metoda za izdvajanje&nbsp; homogenih&nbsp; regiona.&nbsp; Na&nbsp; osnovu ove&nbsp; analize&nbsp; u&nbsp; Panonskom&nbsp; basenu&nbsp; su izdvojena&nbsp; tri&nbsp; regiona&nbsp; koja&nbsp; imaju&nbsp; iste karakteistike.</p> / <p>High&nbsp; waters&nbsp; are&nbsp; a&nbsp; complex phenomenon&nbsp; both&nbsp; in&nbsp; terms&nbsp; of&nbsp; the&nbsp; factors&nbsp; that cause it, as well as in terms of its impact on the ecosystem&nbsp; and&nbsp; society.&nbsp; This&nbsp; dissertation presents&nbsp; the&nbsp; advantage&nbsp; of&nbsp; analyzing&nbsp; high waters&nbsp; with&nbsp; two&nbsp; variables&nbsp; (volumes&nbsp; and duration), compared to the usual analysis with one&nbsp; value&nbsp; (usually&nbsp; the&nbsp;&nbsp; maximum&nbsp; annual discharge).&nbsp; The&nbsp; results&nbsp; obtained&nbsp; by&nbsp; the statistical&nbsp; analysis&nbsp; of&nbsp; high&nbsp; waters,&nbsp; which&nbsp; are defined&nbsp; by&nbsp; the&nbsp; threshold&nbsp; method,&nbsp; have&nbsp; shown that&nbsp; they&nbsp; have&nbsp; greater&nbsp; applicability&nbsp; in&nbsp; water management&nbsp; than&nbsp; methods&nbsp; that&nbsp; use&nbsp; standard values&nbsp; because&nbsp; they&nbsp; give&nbsp; concrete&nbsp; values&nbsp; of possible&nbsp; water&nbsp; quantities&nbsp; (volume&nbsp; of&nbsp; highwaters).&nbsp; The&nbsp; threshold&nbsp; method&nbsp; was&nbsp; applied&nbsp; to 22 stations on the four largest rivers Pannonian Basin&nbsp; (Danube,&nbsp; Sava,&nbsp; Tisa&nbsp; and&nbsp; Drava)&nbsp; for the period&nbsp; 1964-2013.&nbsp; This&nbsp; represents&nbsp; the&nbsp; largest sample&nbsp; in&nbsp; such&nbsp; a&nbsp; large&nbsp; geographical&nbsp; area.&nbsp; The value&nbsp; of&nbsp; Q10&nbsp; was&nbsp; taken&nbsp; as&nbsp; the&nbsp; threshold&nbsp; for defining&nbsp; the&nbsp; high&nbsp; waters,&nbsp; as&nbsp; the&nbsp; aim&nbsp; was&nbsp; to analyze the spatial and&nbsp; temporal&nbsp;&nbsp; characteristics of extreme&nbsp; high waters&nbsp; in the&nbsp; largest rivers of the&nbsp; Pannonian&nbsp; Basin.&nbsp; The&nbsp; threshold&nbsp; selection also&nbsp; influenced&nbsp; the&nbsp; selection&nbsp; of&nbsp; the&nbsp; annual maximum method for statistical analysis of the characteristics of high waters. L-moments were<br />used&nbsp; to&nbsp; determine&nbsp; the&nbsp; parameter&nbsp; of&nbsp; the theoretical&nbsp; distributions,&nbsp; which&nbsp; give&nbsp; more reliable&nbsp; estimates&nbsp; of&nbsp; parameters&nbsp; than&nbsp; ordinary moments.&nbsp; In&nbsp; the&nbsp; previous&nbsp; researches,&nbsp; which analyzed&nbsp; the&nbsp; characteristics&nbsp; of&nbsp; high&nbsp; waters&nbsp; by the&nbsp; method&nbsp; of&nbsp; annual&nbsp; maximums,&nbsp; the distribution&nbsp; function&nbsp; was&nbsp; selected&nbsp; in&nbsp; advance, and&nbsp; not&nbsp; on&nbsp; the&nbsp; basis&nbsp; of&nbsp; tests&nbsp; of&nbsp; approval&nbsp; and check&nbsp; of&nbsp; probability&nbsp; graphs,&nbsp; as&nbsp; is&nbsp; done&nbsp; in&nbsp; this dissertation. In order to&nbsp; check the goodness-offit&nbsp; tests&nbsp; of&nbsp; annual&nbsp; maximum &nbsp; volumes&nbsp; and duration,&nbsp; the&nbsp; tests&nbsp; Kolmogorov-Smirnov&nbsp; and Kramer-Mizes&nbsp; were&nbsp; used,&nbsp; and&nbsp; based&nbsp; on&nbsp; their results&nbsp; representative&nbsp; distribution&nbsp; was&nbsp; chosen for&nbsp; calculation&nbsp; of&nbsp; different&nbsp; return&nbsp; periods&nbsp; of high waters on the stations, and vice versa.&nbsp; The L-moment&nbsp; diagram&nbsp; (L-Cs/L-Ck)&nbsp; determined the homogeneity&nbsp;&nbsp; of the region, in this case the Pannonian&nbsp; basin.&nbsp; L-moments&nbsp; were&nbsp; used&nbsp; for selection&nbsp; of&nbsp; regional&nbsp; distribution&nbsp; (LN)&nbsp; forvolumes&nbsp; and&nbsp; duration&nbsp; of&nbsp; high&nbsp; waters.&nbsp; Cluster analysis&nbsp; was&nbsp; used&nbsp; as&nbsp; the&nbsp; second&nbsp; method&nbsp; for separating homogeneous regions.&nbsp; Based on this analysis&nbsp; in the Pannonian&nbsp; Basin, three regions have&nbsp; been&nbsp; identified&nbsp; that&nbsp; have&nbsp; the&nbsp; same hydrological characteristics.</p>

The eco-friendly alternatives use is increasing momentum in a conscious effort towards sustainability. In this regards, the relevance and the economic value of using copper slag as a concrete aggregate are explored in this study in order to contribute towards metallurgical waste recycling. Emphasis is placed on the evaluation of the concretes strengthening prepared with copper slag contents and produced under four curing methods: water immersion, water spraying, plastic sheet covering and air-drying. In each curing case excluding for water immersion, was duplicated in indoors (i.e. in the laboratory) and outdoor exposure (so was prone to varying environmental conditions). This was specifically aimed at capturing the effects of tropical weather conditions typical of the Lualaba province in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The control mix was designed to reach 25 MPa of compressive strength. Copper slag was successively incorporated as sand replacement at the following mass fractions: 20 %, 40 % and 60 %. Freshly mixed concrete samples were evaluated for workability. Cube specimens were cast accordingly, cured for 28 days and then tested for density and compressive strength. Results indicated an increase in strength up to 20 % of replacement rate for all the curing methods. Further additions resulted in reduction in the strength, but the rate of reduction depended on curing conditions. The increase in strength was mainly credited to the physical properties of copper slag that could have contributed to the cohesion of the concrete matrix. It has been found that appropriate ways of curing can still achieve greater results than that of the control mix since 80 % of humidity is ensure. The two-way ANOVA test performed on the 28-days compressive strength values confirmed the significant influence of the curing methods, of copper slag content and the interaction between them. It has been found that considerable influence is attributed to copper slag content and that warm environmental conditions further extend the concrete strengthening. / College of Engineering, Science and Technology / M. Tech. (Chemical Engineering)

The problem this study addresses is that the Christian church in the postmodern west is in a condition of zero growth and even decline. Conventional strategies intended to reverse this condition have tended to focus on improved implementation of traditional methodologies of church growth. Despite the application of such strategies the church continues to decline, indicating the urgent need for additional approaches. Practical theology suggests such an additional approach: greater engagement with the local community. Certain churches have been identified whose congregations, acting, it is believed, under the leadership of the Spirit, are engaging their immediate communities in a wide variety of ways often with the result that people touched by the church respond with a new or renewed interest in the Christian faith and in some instances join or rejoin the Christian family. The implication, and the hypothesis of the study, is that widespread application of the practices of such community-engaging congregations, called “holistic” congregations, might have a positive impact in terms of growth in the wider church community. To determine the validity of this implication a small-scale inductive, empirical, effect-to-cause study was undertaken. Combining qualitative and quantitative research methods intended to identify the ethos of those churches that meet the developed criteria of “holistic” churches, as compared to a second group of “non-holistic” churches, the study addresses the question: Is it possible to discover the ethos of holistic churches with a view to reproducing that ethos in other churches? Analysis of the data gathered during the study identifies a number of specific characteristics shared by the holistic churches. In addition to suggesting strategies that may profitably be investigated and implemented by churches that wish to become, or become more, holistic in terms of their outreach ministry, the results also advocate the further study of holism as a possible key feature to the future of the Church. / Thesis (PhD (Practical Theology))--University of Pretoria, 2005. / Practical Theology / unrestricted

Notre thèse s’insère dans le cadre du projet ANR Micro « Matériaux Innovants Composites pour la Réparation d'Ouvrages : Approche fiabiliste du dimensionnement pour leur requalification et la prédiction de leur durabilité » L'objectif principal de la thèse est d’appréhender le problème de la durabilité par une approche expérimentale phénoménologique multi-échelle et de proposer des modèles de durée de vie au sens probabiliste. Le matériel d’étude est un carbone/époxy bidirectionnel non équilibré en masse (70% /30%) réticulé à l’ambiante et mis en œuvre par moulage au contact. Six vieillissements hygrothermiques obtenus par croisement entre les températures (20°C, 40°C et 60°C) et les humidités (50%, 75% et immersion) à diverses échéances ont été réalisés au cours de l’étude. Après identification des divers indicateurs, nous avons réalisé des analyses physico-chimiques (absorption-désorption, DSC, TMA, Infrarouge, DMA et Tomographie) ainsi qu’un suivi des caractéristiques mécaniques (traction, cisaillement interlaminaire, pull-out et double cisaillement) afin de définir les différents mécanismes de dégradation des propriétés mécaniques et physicochimiques des matrices polymères, des interfaces fibres–matrice, des joints de colle à l’interface composite-structure renforcée au cours du vieillissement pour le système classique Carbone/Epoxy. Ces indicateurs ont été analysés statistiquement afin de valider plus rigoureusement les tendances qui ont été observées. Le suivi des indicateurs mécaniques de performance par le vieillissement accéléré a été réalisé puis comparé à 1 an de vieillissement naturel. L’antagonisme des différents mécanismes de dégradations a été mis en évidence dans le cas de traction simple et du cisaillement interlaminaire. Il ressort que la plastification est le mécanisme qui affecte le plus les performances des composites carbone/époxy. Pour les températures élevées, il semble que la post-réticulation en densifiant le réseau a amélioré les cohésions interfaciales, ce qui a inhibé l’impact de la dégradation thermique sur les performances mécaniques. En comparant avec le vieillissement naturel, on a pu remarquer que le vieillissement en milieu aqueux était plus dégradant de façon générale et accélérait convenablement la dégradation en milieu naturel. En particulier, les tendances observées ne suivent pas des évolutions qui permettent d’apprécier trivialement la chute de performance par des modèles de prédiction. La qualité de l’adhérence composite/béton a été évaluée par des tests d’arrachement. Les fortes disparités entre les résultats rendent les interprétations délicates. Mais il a été mis en évidence que la post-réticulation semblent améliorer la cohésion tandis que la plastification est très néfaste pour la stabilité du joint de colle accélérant de façon excessive la dégradation en comparaison avec le vieillissement naturel. Cette instabilité a également été prouvée par les tests de double cisaillement où le délaminage était observé dès les premières échéances de vieillissement. La dernière partie du travail a consisté à proposer un traitement statistique des données pour valider tout d’abord les tendances observées expérimentalement, apporter plus d’informations et discuter sur le choix des modèles de prédiction. Bien que très apprécié par la communauté, l’utilisation des modèles physiques n’est pas systématique car elle suppose des performances dégénératives, ce qui en pratique n’est pas le cas. Une approche physique a été proposée sur la base de données épurée afin de respecter les conditions d’écriture du modèle. Le modèle choisi pour prédire la résistance ultime en traction est conservateur mais a le mérite d’être utilisable pour des études de fiabilité. L’enrichissement bayésien pourra être utilisé pour démontrer l’avantage qu’il peut conférer dans les études de fiabilité / Our thesis is part of this MICRO project "Innovative Composite Materials for the Repair of Structures: Reliability approach of the dimensioning for their requalification and the prediction of their durability". Final objective of the thesis is to understand the problem of sustainability through a multi-scale phenomenological experimental approach and to propose probabilistic life-time models. So, we defined the methodology of our study, as well as the methods, materials and analysis techniques. The study material is a non-equilibrium (70% / 30%) unbalanced bidirectional carbon / epoxy that is crosslinked at room temperature and made by hand layup process. Six hygrothermal aging obtained by crossing between temperatures (20°C, 40°C and 60°C) and humidities (50%, 75% and immersion) at various times were carried out during the study. After identifying the various indicators, we carried out physicochemical analyzes (absorption-desorption, DSC, TMA, Infrared, DMA and Tomography) as well as a follow-up of the mechanical characteristics (tensile, interlaminar shear, pull-out and double shear). These indicators were analyzed statistically to more rigorously validate the trends that were observed. The monitoring of mechanical performance indicators by accelerated aging was carried out and then compared to 1 year of natural aging. The antagonism of the various mechanisms of damage has been demonstrated in the case of simple traction and interlaminar shear. It appears that plasticization is the mechanism that most affects the performance of carbon / epoxy composites. For high temperatures, it appears that post-cure by densifying the network has improved interfacial cohesion, which has inhibited the impact of thermal degradation on mechanical performance. Comparing with natural aging, it was noted that aging in an aqueous condition was more generally degrading and aqueous conditions accelerated well the degradation in a natural environment. In particular, the trends observed do not follow evolutions that permit to write simplified prediction models. The quality of the composite / concrete adhesion was evaluated by pull-out tests. The strong disparities between the results make the analysis delicate. But it has been shown that the post-cure seems to improve the cohesion whereas the plasticization is very harmful for the stability of the bonded joints accelerating excessively the degradation in comparison to the natural aging. This instability has also been proven by the double shear tests where the delamination was observed from the first maturities of aging. The anchor length is reduced and a time-sensitive model has been proposed for the selected aging condition (60°C-immersion). On the other hand, this plasticization softens the failure due to the increased deformability of the joint. In this environmental condition, the monitoring of the elastic limit stress seems to be a relevant indicator for the monitoring of the durability because it simulates the natural aging with reasonable differences. The last part of our work consisted in the proposal of a statistical treatment of the data in order to validate firstly the trends observed experimentally, to bring more information and to discuss on the choice of the models of prediction. Although, physical model is very appreciated by the community, it is not systematically applicable. Indeed, it assumes degenerative performance, which in practice is not the case. A physical approach has been proposed on the refined database in order to respect the writing conditions of the model (degenerative trends). The model chosen to predict the ultimate tensile strength is conservative but applicable for reliability studies. Bayesian enrichment can be used to demonstrate the advantage it can confer in reliability studies

The variation of the strong genitive marker of the singular noun has been treated by diverse accounts. Still there is a consensus that it is to a large extent systematic but can be approached appropriately only if many heterogeneous factors are taken into account. Over thirty variables influencing this variation have been proposed. However, it is actually unclear how effective they can be, and above all, how they interact. In this paper, the potential influencing variables are evaluated statistically in a machine learning approach and modelled in decision trees in order to predict the genitive marking variants. Working with decision trees based exclusively on statistically significant data enables us to determine what combination of factors is decisive in the choice of a marking variant of a given noun. Consequently the variation factors can be assessed with respect to their explanatory power for corpus data and put in a hierarchized order.

Maps and models of seismic and tsunami risk are constructed from a variety of measurements taken in Indonesia, which have the potential to reduce loss of life and infrastructure. The first study uses the multichannel analysis of surface waves (MASW) method to calculate the time-averaged shear wave velocity to 30 m depth (Vs30). These measurements were taken at 58 sites in the city of Pacitan, Java and on the islands of Lombok, Ambon, and the Banda Islands. Vs30 calculations are compared with local geologic maps to extrapolate site class for locations not measured directly. Site class maps are then compared with Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) observations for three earthquake events that impacted Lombok and Ambon to identify regions where the MMI and Vs30 do and do not corroborate one another. Consistent with other Vs30 studies, the lowest values are observed on coastal alluvial plains and the highest values on steeper hillsides underlain by volcanic deposits. The second study focuses on a potential sector collapse of the volcano Banda Api within the Banda Islands. A field survey of its summit identified a steeply dipping normal fault striking NNE-SSW. This, along with the fissure geometry of the volcano's most recent eruption, reveals a failure plane along which a future sector collapse could occur. The numerical model Tsunami Squares (TS) predicts that the tsunami produced by this landslide would inundate an estimated 63% of buildings on the Banda Islands with waves as high as 82 m. These findings highlight the importance of installing a GPS receiver array on Banda Api to monitor the motion of its slopes. The third study analyzes sediment from trenches on the Banda Islands and Ambon to test if historical tsunamis that have impacted the area are preserved in the geological record. Potential tsunami deposits were identified by the presence of marine sand and larger clasts of marine carbonate in an environment which otherwise lacks large storms to bring such material onshore. Several dating methods constrain the ages of at least seven candidate tsunami deposits found in trenches onshore. One of these historical tsunamis (the event of November 26, 1852) is described in significant detail from several locations across the Banda Sea, which enables modeling of the event using a Bayesian statistical approach. The posterior of this model predicts the most likely epicenter was SW of Seram with a mean magnitude of Mw 8.8. It also makes other predictions about fault parameters. The region exhibits a marked slip deficit based on instrumental records of earthquakes in the area.