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Philosophiae Doctor - PhD (Development Studies) / There is a wide-reaching consensus that data required for poverty analysis in developing countries are inadequate. Concerns have been raised on the accuracy and adequacy of household surveys, especially those emanating from Sub-Saharan Africa. Part of the debate has hinted on the existence of a statistical tragedy, but caution has also been voiced that African statistical offices are not similar and some statistical offices having stronger statistical capacities than others. The use of generalizations therefore fails to capture these variations. This thesis argues that African statistical offices are facing data challenges but not necessarily to the extent insinuated. In the post-1995 period, there has been an increase in the availability of household surveys from developing countries. This has also been accompanied by an expansion of poverty analyses efforts. Despite this surge in data availability, available household survey data remain inadequate in meeting the demand to answer poverty related enquiry. What is also evident is that cross sectional household surveys were conducted more extensively than panel data. Resultantly the paucity of panel data in developing counties is more pronounced. In South Africa, a country classified as ‘data rich’ in this thesis, there exists inadequate panel surveys that are nationally representative and covers a comprehensive period in the post-1995 period. Existing knowledge on poverty dynamics in the country has relied mostly on the use of the National Income Dynamic Study, KwaZulu Natal Dynamic Study and smaller cohort-based panels such as the Birth to Twenty and Birth to Ten cohort studies that have rarely been used in the analysis of poverty dynamics. Using mixed methods, this thesis engages these data issues. The qualitative component of this thesis uses key informants from Statistics South Africa and explores how the organization has measured poverty over the years. A historical background on the context of statistical conduct in the period before 1995 shows the shaky foundation that characterised statistical conduct in the country at the inception of Statistics South Africa in 1995. The organization since then has expanded its efforts in poverty measurement; partly a result of the availability of more household survey data. Improvements within the organization also are evidenced by the emergence of a fully-fledged Poverty and Inequality division within the organization. The agency has managed to embrace the measurement of multidimensional poverty. Nevertheless, there are issues surrounding available poverty related data. Issues of comparability affect poverty analysis, and these are discussed in this thesis. The informants agreed that there is need for more analysis of poverty using available surveys in South Africa. Against this backdrop, the use of pseudo panels to analyse poverty dynamics becomes an attractive option. Given the high costs associated with the conduct of panel surveys, pseudo panels are not only cost effective, but they enable the analysis of new research questions that would not be possible using existing data in its traditional forms. Elsewhere, pseudo panels have been used in the analysis of poverty dynamics in the absence of genuine panel data and the results have proved their importance. The methodology used to generate the pseudo panel in this thesis borrows from previous works including the work of Deaton and generates 13 birth cohorts using the Living Conditions Surveys of 2008/9 and 2014/15 as well as the IES of 2010. The birth cohorts under a set of given assumptions are ‘tracked’ in these three time periods. The thesis then analysed the expenditure patterns and poverty rates of birth cohorts. The findings suggested that in South Africa, expenditures are driven mostly with incomes from the labour market and social grants. The data however did not have adequate and comparative variables on the types of employment to further explore this debate. It also emerged that birth cohorts with male headship as well as birth cohorts in urban settlements and in White and Indian households have a higher percentage share of their income coming from labour market sources. On the other hand, birth cohorts with female headship and residing in rural, African and in Coloured households are more reliant on social grants. The majority of recipients of social grants receive the Child Social Grant and its minimalist value partly explains why birth cohorts reporting social grants as their main source of income are more likely to be poor when compared to birth cohorts who mostly earn their income from the labour market. Residing in a female-headed household, or in a rural area as well as in Black African and Coloured increases the chances of experiencing poverty. This supports existing knowledge on poverty in South Africa and confirms that these groups are deprived. The results of the pseudo panel analysis also show that poverty reduced between 2006 and 2011 for most birth cohorts but increased in 2015. Policy recommendations to reduce poverty therefore lie in the labour market. However, given the high levels of unemployment in the country today, more rigorous labour incentives are required.

Près des deux tiers des patients vivant avec le VIH habitent en Afrique sub-saharienne. Dans ces pays à ressources limitées, la question du niveau optimal de CD4 pour débuter le traitement antirétroviral (ARV) est un enjeu majeur de santé publique. Nous avons étudié la reconstitution immunitaire à long terme sous ARV et son association avec la survie dans quatre projets de prise en charge du VIH soutenus par Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) en Afrique sub-Saharienne entre 2001 et 2010. Nous avons utilisé des modèles mixtes pour prendre en compte les mesures de CD4 répétées aussi bien dans la modélisation de la réponse immunitaire que dans l'analyse de survie. Dans la première partie modélisant la reconstitution immunitaire, nous avons montré que les femmes ont une meilleure reconstitution immunitaire que les hommes et que la capacité de reconstitution immunitaire est la même quel que soit le taux de CD4 au démarrage des ARV. La deuxième étude a mis en évidence que la survie était améliorée sous ARV chez les patients atteignant un taux de CD4 courant supérieur à 500 cellules/μL par rapport à ceux qui ont un taux de CD4 entre 350 et 499 cellules/μL. Le sexe, l'âge et l'observance ont aussi été identifiés comme prédicteurs indépendants de mortalité après neuf mois sous ARV. En conclusion, nous montrons que les femmes ont une meilleure reconstitution immunitaire et atteignent plus vite un taux de CD4 de 500 cellules/μL qui est associé à une meilleure survie. Ce travail suggère qu'un démarrage plus précoce des ARV, avant que le taux de CD4 ne tombe en dessous de 500 cellules/μl, pourrait améliorer la survie et confirme le besoin d'essais cliniques évaluant les bénéfices individuels d'une telle stratégie / Almost two third of individuals living with HIV are in sub-Saharan Africa. In these resource limited countries, the optimal CD4 cell count level to initiate antiretroviral treatment (ART) is still debated. We studied long term immune reconstitution on ART and its association with survival in four HIV programs supported by Médecins Sans Frontières in sub-Saharan Africa between 2001 and 2010. We used mixed models to account for repeated CD4 measurements in the modelling of the immune reconstitution and the survival analysis. In the first part modelling immune response to ART, we showed that women achieved a better immune reconstitution compared to men and that the immune reconstitution capacity is the same for each level of CD4 at ART initiation. The second study showed that survival is improved for patient with an updated CD4 above 500 cells/μL compared to those with CD4 levels between 350-499 cells/μL. Furthermore, gender, age and adherence are independently associated with mortality. As a conclusion, women have a better immune reconstitution and achieved quicker

Microfinance Institutions (MFIs) in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and the developing world have over the years attracted and received billions of US dollars (valued at over US$4 billion annually worldwide) in subsidies and concessionary funds. These subsidies are used to capitalize, promote growth, and help improve efficiency, operations and performance of newly established MFIs. At face value these interventions seem positive, yet studies have shown that they can be counterproductive in terms of their effect on the performance, efficiency and self-sustainability of the MFIs. This research addresses this issue by identifying four determinants of MFI’s performance and analysing the effect that subsidies have on them. A quantitative approach was used in the analysis in which the financial data of 92 MFIs were estimated using panel data estimation. The method of variable selection was based on the procedure used by Nawaz (2010). This method of determining the relationship between selected performance and sustainability indicators and subsidy was modelled on the Subsidy Dependant Index (SDI) method of analysis developed by Yaron (1992a) and the Return on Asset (ROA), Operational Self-Sufficiency (OSS) and Financial Self-Sufficiency (FSS) methods of analysis developed by the SEEP Network (2005). The summary results of the analysis showed that the majority of MFIs (90.22%) were not sustainable nor were they found to be profitable. However, the results show that all the institutions were operationally self-sufficient and that, on average, MFIs in SSA charged higher interest rates than MFIs in other parts of the world. The average OSS was 136.01% showing that MFIs are operationally self-sufficient. However, the average FSS value was 74.32% reflecting that the MFIs are not able to raise enough revenue to cover their capital and indirect costs which would ultimately result in them running out of equity funds. The inclusion of subsidies in the sustainability regressions resulted in a decline in the ability of the MFIs to attain operational and financial self-sufficiency, thus showing the negative effect subsidies have on the sustainability of MFIs. Inflation and interest rates charged on loans also had a negative effect on sustainability as they resulted in an increase in costs and a decline in the number of low income clients. MFIs located in wealthier countries were found to be more efficient because of the lower costs associated with having wealthier clients who have larger loan sizes. MFIs in lower income countries have to overcome limitations of weak infrastructures, low population densities and rural markets which increase operating costs. Older institutions were found to more likely be sustainable than new and young MFIs as expected because of their improved efficiency and productivity and also because they have more experience and are therefore better equipped to overcome challenges. However, by adding subsidy in the analysis the results show that the level of efficiency of MFIs is reduced. The results also show that with increased maturity MFIs are found to be more productive, however, when subsidies are included in the finances the levels of productivity will decline as costs increase. NBFIs are the most suitable business model to practice in MFIs in Africa according to the findings which reflect that NBFIs are more profitable and efficient than any of the other business models in the sample. However, cooperatives were found to be the most productive business model as they have a stronger borrower to staff ratio than the other institutional types. Furthermore, cooperatives and NBFIs tend to have clients who are better off and therefore can afford to take larger sized loans, unlike clients of NGOs who are poor who struggle to have a stable income. Copyright / Dissertation (MSc(Agric))--University of Pretoria, 2012. / Agricultural Economics, Extension and Rural Development / unrestricted

Most Sub-Saharan African countries are not yet considered democracies, but it is worth noting that almost all of them are fighting for democracy, and some countries have successfully crossed the threshold of democracy. However, the pace of democratization across the African region is uneven. In some countries it seems that the commitment to democratic norms and practices has deepened, but in other countries, whether it is the political elite or the general public, this commitment has proved to be weak. Although citizens now have greater opportunities to participate in the political process than before, in some countries only one party remains in power and there is no peaceful and successful transfer of power to the opposition. In this research I intend to find answers to the following question: Why are the levels of democratic development among these African countries in the Sub-Saharan region very different, even though their democratic transitions take place almost simultaneously. The three main approaches that explain democratization - modernization, social capital, and party systems are tested by empirically analyzing data related to political development among countries in sub-Saharan Africa. The results of the analysis indicate that social capital (trust) is most important for democratization in Sub-Saharan Africa, which may be due to the fact that the party system (including the proportion of women, etc.) has not yet stabilized in many places and therefore can not be a "decisive" factor. The lack of suitable and alternative operationalisations in the form of the lack of valid values regarding party system variables has also affected the result for this particular theoretical area. There was a connection between modernization factors and democracy in the bivariate analyzes, but the corruption index / social trust had a much stronger connection in the multivariate analyzes.

This research synthesizes data and presents it using mapping software to help to identify potential site locations for community-centered higher education alternatives and more traditional junior-level colleges in Uganda. What factors can be used to quantify one site over another for the location of such an institution and if these factors can be isolated; why should they be used by local authorities? the variables are secured from the Southern and Eastern Africa Consortium for Monitoring Educational Quality (SACMEQ), Afrobarometer, census data, as well as technology reports and surveys. These variables are reduced, grouped and mapped to help determine the best location for a junior-level college. the use of local expert opinion on geopolitical, economic, and educational situations can be interfaced with the database data to identify potential sites for junior-level colleges with the potential to reduce the failure rate of such post-secondary school ventures. These data are analyzed in the context of reported higher education policies and outcomes from the national ministries, United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), quality assurances agencies in the region, the World Bank, and national datasets. the final product is a model and tool that can be used by local experts to better select future sites to expand higher education, especially in rural areas in the least developed countries.

The way its future power systems are designed will have significant impact on sub-Saharan Africa's (SSA) aspirations to move from low electricity consumption rates to enhance life quality and further increase economic opportunity. At present, Africa is experiencing higher economic growth rates than other continents (including Asia). And so is its need for electric power. However, all too often the options that are chosen are the ones with lowest risk and that require little coordination. In part, this is because region-wide planning, coordination and institutions are in their infancy. “Low risk” power plants typically include oil generators that can be sited close to loads, other fossil fuel power plants, and hydro plants that can easily be connected to the continent’s grid. However, hydropower production has been limited due to changes in weather and climate and socio-economic impacts. Additionally, its potential has also not been reached as large sites are far from adequate grids. A restructuring of the energy system that considers both the potential for increased geographical integration while moving gradually towards more sustainable electricity generation may hold significant promise. This work considers the potential of another renewable technology namely concentrating solar power (CSP) and connecting supply and demand centers via high voltage direct current (HVDC) power lines. Specifically, the focus is on utility-scale solar power generation to supply the needs of growing urban centers of demand. It develops a Geographic Information System-based (GIS) model with a spatial resolution of 30 arc-seconds to calculate the cost evolution of the electricity produced by different technologies of CSP plants and the costs of grid development to selected centers of demand. The results show that major SSA metropolis can benefit from distant CSP economically attractive to compete with inlaid coal-based generation. In 2010, total imports of coal exceeded 1.4 million short tons with consequent economic and environmental costs. Solar towers plants endowed with thermal storage may become a leading technology for smoothing purposes with zero fuel costs. Furthermore, Africa’s vast solar resources are far from urban centers of demand and a transmission system capable to integrate high levels of renewable energy while improving reliability of supply is required. The results of this study point to the importance of SSA centers to rely on a Super Grid approach to take advantage from CSP least-cost potential and to discontinue expensive traditional sources. Overall, solar corridors can integrate with geographically-wide wind and hydro potentials to create clean energy corridors and encourage a transition towards more sustainable energy systems.

This paper examines the relationship between financial development and poverty fora sample of SSA countries while taking into account an interaction effect between thefinancial sector and the institutional framework, which is thought to be causing someomitted variable bias in previous studies. The study covers the period 2000–2019.These relationships are investigated using fixed effects. The results show thatfinancial development had a statistically significant and positive impact on povertyreduction. Also, the estimates reveal that institutional quality has a significant andpositive impact on poverty reduction. However, it was discovered that whereinstitutions perform better, the pro-poor impact of financial development is alsobetter. These findings support the theory that finance, and institutions have acomplementary effect. The study recommends, amongst others, that a judiciousallocation of resources between financial development and strengthening the qualityof institutions will be critical to reducing poverty and boosting economic growth inthe region.

With a growing world population, estimated to 9.6 billion in 2050, the world food demand is estimated to increase with 45-50 %. One way to meet the demand is to increase the areal yield from the agricultural sector, where rain-fed agriculture has the highest potential. 95 % of the agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa is rain-fed and the same region is predicted to holds the largest share of poor people in 2015. Since 40-70 % of the rural households highly depend of on-farm sources, investments to increase the agriculture productivity target both the poverty alleviation in the region as well as the world’s food security. By a tripartite methodology, this study analyzed the use of small-scale rain water harvesting (RWH) ponds for supplemental irrigation (SI) of cereals to reduce the inter-annual variability and to increase the areal yield in semi-arid areas in Ethiopia. A physically based simulation model (CoupModel) considering the plant-soil-atmosphere system was used to study how a C4-plant responded to different irrigation scenarios with 30 years climate data (1980-2009) from six regions in Ethiopia. Moreover, two years field data with maize yield from Triple Green project’s experimental fields in Ethiopia was used to analyze the correlation between SI and yield. Finally, ten farmers that used RWH ponds for SI of cereals within Triple Green project were interviewed to find out their perception of the RWH and SI. The model results showed that irrigation almost eliminated the inter-annual variability and increased the areal yield for all the climates. SI was most efficiently used in areas with more than 900 mm precipitation/year were the two annual rain periods could be bridged to create a prolonged growth season (>180 days). The mean annual irrigation water demand was estimated to 224 mm distributed over 7 irrigation events. The field results showed a moderate but significant 10 % increase of the areal yield with SI. None of the farmers wanted to use the RWH for SI of cereals, instead they wanted to use it to water their livestock, grow cash crop seedlings and fruit trees. If the future world food demand is to be targeted, the study suggests societal investments to build infrastructure to collect, store and distribute water for irrigation.

Gender inequalities are still widely pervasive and deeply institutionalised, particularly in Africa, where the burden of disease is highly gendered. The public health sector has been slow in responding to and addressing gender as a determinant of health. The purpose of this inquiry was to gain a deeper insight into the different ways in which gender was represented in the public health curriculum in sub-Saharan Africa. A qualitative inquiry was undertaken on gender in the curriculum in nine autonomous schools of public health in sub-Saharan Africa. Official curriculum documents were analysed and in-depth interviews were held with fourteen staff members of two schools that served as case studies. A content analysis of the data was carried out, followed by discourse analysis. A poststructuralist theoretical framework was used as the ‘lens’ for interpreting the findings. Most of the official curricula were ‘layered’, with gender not appearing on the surface. Gender was represented mainly as an implicit discourse and appeared explicitly in only one core course and a few elective modules. The overwhelmingly dominant discourse in the official curricula was the ‘woman’ discourse, with a strong emphasis on the reproductive and maternal roles of women, while discourses on men, sexuality and power relations seemed to be marginalised. Gender discourses that emerged from the in-depth interviews with participants were lodged in biological, social and academic discourses on gender. The dominant discourses revolved around sexual difference and role differences based on sex. Participants drew on societal discourses (family, culture and religion), academic discourses and their lived experiences to explain their understandings of gender. Their narratives on the teaching of gender showed that gender was not taught or received a low priority and that it was insufficiently addressed in the public health curriculum. Barriers to teaching gender were: lack of knowledge, resources and commitment; resistance; and competing priorities. From this study it emerged that curriculum and the production of gender knowledge are sites of struggle that result in multiple understandings of gender that are manifest in dominant and marginalised discourses. Prevailing institutional power relations mirror dominant societal and political discourses that have a fundamental effect on curriculum decisions and resource allocations. This interplay between dominant discourses and power relations, underpinned by a strong biomedical paradigm, could explain the positioning of gender as an implicit representation in the curriculum, with a more explicit focus on gender in the elective modules than in the compulsory or core courses. Being implicitly represented, gender does not compete with other priorities for additional resources. It is recommended that the public health curriculum be reconceptualised by: accommodating multiple understandings of gender; questioning constructed dominant gender discourses; considering broader, varied and complex social, cultural, economic, historical and political contexts in which gender is constructed and experienced; and moving from curriculum technicalities to understanding the curriculum as a process and not a product. / Thesis (PhD)--University of Pretoria, 2010. / School of Health Systems and Public Health (SHSPH) / Unrestricted