Existe uma ampla literatura tratando dos efeitos da abertura comercial sobre a taxa de crescimento econômico e outra que trata dos efeitos do capital humano sobre esse crescimento. No entanto, é bastante limitada a literatura que ressalta a interligação da abertura comercial e do capital humano sobre o crescimento econômico. Os poucos trabalhos existentes nesse último grupo se concentram em análises considerando diferenças entre países. No entanto, o Brasil tem grandes dimensões e a análise dos fatores que explicam o crescimento do PIB de seus estados é de suma importância para os planejadores econômicos. Diante desse cenário, procura-se nesta tese quantificar e analisar os impactos de variações no capital humano dos indivíduos e da abertura comercial dos estados brasileiros sobre o crescimento econômico dos respectivos estados. O capital humano aqui é entendido como o número médio de anos de estudos da parcela da PEA ocupada em cada unidade da federação e a abertura comercial é definida como a proporção entre o volume de comércio internacional (exportações mais importações) em relação ao PIB dos respectivos estados. A análise compreende o período de 1995 a 2006 e os dados anuais estão organizados no formato de painel, para o grupo de 26 estados mais o Distrito Federal. A tese é regida pela hipótese de que tanto a abertura comercial quanto o nível do capital humano da população economicamente ativa empregada são relevantes para o crescimento econômico dos estados brasileiros, tanto pela transferência tecnológica via comércio internacional quanto pela eficiência do capital humano para assimilar as novas tecnologias. Para atingir o objetivo proposto, desenvolveu-se dois modelos teóricos para posterior aplicação: o modelo estendido de Solow e o modelo de crescimento econômico com progresso tecnológico endógeno. Os resultados indicam que tanto o modelo estendido de Solow quanto o modelo com progresso tecnológico endógeno permitem afirmar que aumentar o grau de abertura comercial afeta positivamente a taxa de crescimento do PIB per capita com certa defasagem. Contudo, o efeito de curto prazo não é instantâneo, pois o impacto tem uma defasagem de dois anos. Estimou-se que um aumento no nível de abertura comercial de 1%, em média, aumenta a taxa de crescimento do PIB per capita, na ordem de 0,13 pontos percentuais (p.p.) quando estimado o modelo tradicional e 0,09 p.p. quando estimado o modelo com progresso tecnológico endógeno. Quanto ao impacto do capital humano, constata-se que para cada aumento de 1 ano no nível médio da escolaridade da força de trabalho haverá aumento em 0,06 p.p. na taxa de crescimento do PIB per capita quando estimado o modelo de Solow estendido e, de 0,07 p.p. através do modelo endógeno. A partir desses resultados, o trabalho sugere que se faz necessário não só aumentar o grau de abertura comercial, mas também é importante implementar políticas complementares de investimento contínuo em qualificação da força de trabalho. / There is a large literature addressing the effects of trade liberalization on economic growth rate and another that addresses the effects of human capital on growth. However, it is very limited literature that emphasizes the interconnection of trade openness and human capital on economic growth. The few studies available in the latter group are focused on analysis considering differences between countries. However, Brazil has large dimensions and analysis of the factors that explain the growth of GDP of its states is of great importance to economic planners. In this backdrop, this thesis seeks to quantify and analyze the impacts of variations in the human capital of individuals and the trade openness of the Brazilian states on rate of economic growth of the respective states. Human capital is understood here as the average number of years of schooling of the portion of the PEA employed in each state and trade openness is defined as the ratio between the amounts of international trade (exports plus imports) to GDP of the respective states. The analysis covers the period from 1995 thru 2006 and annual data are organized in the format of a panel for the group of 26 states plus the Federal District. The thesis is guided by the hypothesis that both trade openness and the level of human capital of the economically active population employed are relevant to the economic growth of the Brazilian states, either by technology transfer via international trade and the efficiency of human capital to assimilate new technologies. To achieve our objective, we developed two theoretical models for further application: extended Solow model of economic growth and economic growth model with endogenous technological progress. The results by dynamic panel data indicate that both the extended Solow model as the model with endogenous technological progress have revealed that increasing in the degree of trade openness positively affects the growth rate of GDP per capita with lag. However, the short-term effect is not instantaneous, because the impact has a lag of two years. It was estimated that an increase in the level of trade openness of 1%, on average, increases the rate of growth of GDP per capita around of 0,13 percentage points when estimated the extended Solow model and 0,09 percentage points when estimated the model with endogenous technological progress. The impact of human capital, we see that for every increase of 1 year in the average level of schooling of the workforce will increase by 0,06 percentage points in growth rate of GDP per capita when estimated through the extended Solow model and 0,07 percentage points through the endogenous model. From these results, this research suggests that it is necessary not only increase the degree of trade openness, but it is also important to implement complementary policies of continued investment in workforce skills.

Étant donné les caractéristiques du nouveau système du commerce international, il est important de revoir la théorie du commerce international dans un cadre d’économie industrielle (IO) qui capture la nature internationale de cartels, l’existence des firmes multiproduits, les interactions stratégiques entre les firmes (structure du marché oligopolistique) et l’hétérogénéité entre les firmes en matière de leur taille (grande vs. petites) afin de tirer des conclusions sur le fait que si la libéralisation du commerce sera suffisante pour encourager la concurrence ou plutôt une politique de concurrence rigoureuse devrait être appliquée en même temps afin de garantir un environnement concurrentiel et donc améliorer le bien-être. Plus précisément, les interactions stratégiques entre les entreprises jouent un rôle important dans l’évaluation de l’effet concurrentiel de la libéralisation du commerce. Cette étude vise à analyser, tout d’abord, comment l’ouverture commerciale et, par conséquent, la baisse des tarifs affectent le niveau de concurrence, la structure du marché, la formation des cartels et, par conséquent le niveau des prix. Deuxièmement, d’étudier comment le commerce affecte le comportement des firmes. L’utilisation des modèles théoriques et des données sur les firmes égyptiennes pour analyser ces questions me permettent de tirer des conclusions sur la substituabilité entre la politique de libéralisation du commerce et la politique de concurrence. Les résultats montrent que, dans un contexte de collusion entre les firmes, l’ouverture au commerce peut induire une augmentation du niveau des prix. De plus, les résultats montrent que les firmes multiproduits ajustent leur portefeuille de produit selon les caractéristiques des destinations. Enfin, proposant une structure de marché mixte quand on analyse le comportement des firmes multiproduits, montre que la mondialisation affecte la structure du marché par le biais de la sortie des petites firmes. Les effets pro-concurrentiels d’ouverture commerciale ne sont pas si évidents. Une politique de concurrence rigoureuse est indispensable afin de dissuader les comportements anticoncurrentiels. / Given the features of the new trade system, it is important to reconsider international trade theory in an Industrial Organization (IO) framework that captures the international nature of cartels, the existence of multi-product firms, strategic interactions between firms (oligopolistic market structure) and the heterogeneity between firms in terms of size (large vs. small firms) to draw conclusions on whether trade liberalization will be sufficient to enhance competition or should a rigorous competition policy be applied at the same time to ensure competition and hence welfare promotion. More precisely, strategic interactions between firms play an important role in assessing the competitive effect of trade liberalization.This study aims to analyze, first, how trade liberalization and, hence, a decline in trade costs affect the level of competition, market structure and cartel formation in the market and, hence the price level. Second, how trade openness affects firms’ behavior. Building theoretical model and using firm-level data from Egypt to analyze these questions allow me to draw conclusions on the substitutability between trade liberalization and competition policy. Findings show that trade openness, in a context of collusion between firms, may induce an increase in the level of price when there are sufficiently large firms in the market. Overall, evidence on a change in multi-product firms’ choice of product mix with tougher competition and larger market size in the destination is revealed. Finally, using a mixed market structure when analyzing multi-product firms’ behavior, shows that globalization affects the market structure through inducing the exit of small firms. Pro-competitive effects of trade openness were not so clear, a rigorous competition policy is crucial to deter anti-competitive behaviors with increasing trade liberalization.

Departing from the case of textile and clothing trade dispute between the EU and China in 2005, it has been noticed that the EU’s policy in textile trade to a large extent has been situated in a position of dilemma. On the one hand, the growing global impetus of liberalization in the sector forces the EU to open up its market to cheap textile imports from the developing countries; on the other hand, the fierce protectionist pressures come from the domestic producers and slow down the paces towards liberalization, or sometimes even take setback towards more conservative performances. By placing this case in a broader context, the EU’s external trade policy is confronted with the similar dilemma, swaying between the trade liberalization and trade protection. Consequently, does the EU emerge in the current multilateral trading system of the WTO as a force for trade liberalization or a force for trade protectionism? Bearing this question in mind, the general climate of global trade under the GATT/WTO and the EU’s external trade policy will firstly be examined. Then, the EU’s trade protectionism is about to be explained by strategic trade theory, the high political content of the EU’s external trade policy and the fragmentation in the EU’s policy networks; while the EU’s inclination towards trade liberalization will be explained by the implications from the conventional trade theory and new institutionalism, and as well as the impacts from the general climate of global trade. The results shows that the EU’s external trade policy under the global trade liberalization is a mixture, neither pure liberalization nor pure protectionism. With regard to the trade issues concerning to the vital interests, the Union without exception inclines to conservative protectionism; whereas concerning the issues of less importance, compromises and concessions always lead the outcomes of the policy to the inspiring liberalization.

Submitted by Ignacio Rey (ignacio.crespo12@gmail.com) on 2013-06-20T16:02:43Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação.pdf: 1892087 bytes, checksum: 9b69116ff77d99edaa98675b0553f14c (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Marcia Bacha (marcia.bacha@fgv.br) on 2013-06-27T12:13:35Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação.pdf: 1892087 bytes, checksum: 9b69116ff77d99edaa98675b0553f14c (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-06-27T12:13:55Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação.pdf: 1892087 bytes, checksum: 9b69116ff77d99edaa98675b0553f14c (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-06-12 / The aim of this paper is to understand more about the role of trade liberalization on wage inequality, more precisely, on the residual wage inequality. Using the Brazil- ian trade openness, the large tari cuts that occurred between 1987 and 1995, it is empirically investigated whether di erent levels of exposure to trade across states contributed to the di erent inequality movements. Results indicate that states more exposed to trade liberalization experienced a relative increase in residual wage in- equality or, equivalently, a smaller decrease. These ndings enrich the discussion on the e ects of trade openness on inequality. / O objetivo deste trabalho é entender mais sobre o papel da liberalização sobre a desigualdade salarial, mais precisamente, sobre a desigualdade residual dos salários. Usando a abertura comercial brasileira, a extensa redução tarifária que ocorreu entre 1987 e 1995, é investigado empiricamente se os diferentes níveis de exposição ao comércio entre os estados contribuíram para os diferentes movimentos da desigualdade. Os resultados indicam que estados mais expostos à liberalização comercial experimentaram um aumento relativo da desigualdade residual dos salários ou, de forma equivalente, uma menor redução. Estes resultados enriquecem a discussão dos efeitos da abertura comercial sobre a desigualdade.

This bachelor thesis examines if a Free Trade Agreement (FTA hereafter) has a positive effect or not on trade flows. There are many FTAs in the world beside World Trade Organization (WTO hereafter) membership. Many empirical studies have been performed by different methods and most of them show a significant influence on trade flows. In this thesis the impact on the FTA between the European Union (EU hereafter) and South Korea is studied by using the Gravity Model in period between 2007 and 2016. Dummy variables which capture the impact on the implementation of the FTA since 2011 are constructed into the standard trade Gravity equation. In addition, several dummy variables, such as the distance between countries and culture characteristic variables are utilized. The results of two different regression models show that both a positive and a negative impact on the EU’s import from South Korea and a negative impact on South Korea’s import from the EU. Overall, all estimated coefficients used in the models show a significant effect on import trade flows between countries.

由於科技發展及各國法規的調整，使服務業的發展得以全球化，服務貿易的 成長動能相當大。從總體的角度來看，服務業亦對經濟成長扮演重要角色。由於 我國是一個小型開放經濟體，國內服務業市場與國際市場接軌程度日益加深，因 此有必要探討服務貿易對薪資及就業之影響。 本研究為探討貿易自由化與對外投資如何影響國內服務業勞動市場，合併 2011 年至 2015 年人力運用調查之個體樣本、與行業別之進出口、對外直接投資 等統計資料，使用 Probit 模型估計進出口貿易與對外投資對我國就業的影響，使 用 Heckman two-stage selection 模型估計進出口貿易與對外投資對我國薪資的影 響，並進一步使用 Quantile 模型估計在不同薪資水準下，勞工受到貿易自由化衝 擊的程度是否不同。 實證結果顯示:(1) 貿易對國內就業與薪資的影響依據貿易方向而有所不同， 出口有正向影響，進口有負向影響;(2) 對外投資對國內就業與薪資的影響，依 據被投資國之所得高低而有不同，對外投資至高所得國家有正向影響，對外投資 至低所得國家則有負向影響;(3) 職業別層級貿易指標能更正確衡量勞工受到的 貿易自由化衝擊;(4) 職業別層級貿易指標能更正確衡量勞工受到的貿易自由化 衝擊。

L’Indonésie est un pays en développement qui adopte une économie ouverteoù le maintien de relations commerciales avec les autres pays est significatif. Il y a un niveauélevé de trafic économique international avec un impact substantiel sur l’économie et sur ledéveloppement national. Durant son développement, la collaboration avec d’autre pays a étégénéralisée. Cette thèse examine l’impact économique des accords de libre-échange et dela libéralisation des échanges tentés en Indonésie. Le but est d’adresser les problèmessuivants : examiner l’effet de la libéralisation des échanges sur le volume des exportations etdes importations, le revenu de l’état dans les aspects des échanges internationaux, tel queles droits d’importation, et fournir un examen approfondi du lien entre la libéralisation deséchanges, la pauvreté et l’inégalité en Indonésie. Une analyse empirique est menée enajoutant les facteurs de libéralisation aux fonctions de demande d’exportation etd’importation pour déterminer l’impact de la libéralisation sur les activités d’exportation etd’importation en Indonésie. Les résultats indiquent que, pour l’Indonésie, les politiques delibéralisation des échanges qui sont mesurées par les droits d’exportation et les droitsd’importation ont un impact négatif sur les exportations et les importations. Afin de faire faceaux problèmes fiscaux, on peut conclure que les politiques de libéralisation des échangesd’augmenter le volume des importations. Les conditions de pauvreté et l’inégalité d’un payspeuvent être influencées par l’ouverture de son économie. Les résultats révèlent que lalibéralisation des échanges a un impact négatif direct sur la pauvreté où la libéralisation deséchanges peut réduire le niveau de pauvreté. / Indonesia is a developing country that has adopted an open economy wheretrade relations with other countries is significant. Indeed, there is a high level of internationaleconomy traffic that has substantially impacted the economy and national development.Throughout the nation’s development, cooperation and involvement with other countries hasbeen widespread. This thesis investigates the economic impact of free trade agreements andthe trade liberalization attempted in Indonesia in order to: examine the effect of tradeliberalization on the volume of exports and imports; analyse state revenue regarding aspectsof international trade, such as import duty; and provide a detailed investigation of therelationship between trade liberalization, poverty and inequality in Indonesia. An empiricalanalysis is conducted by adding liberalization factors to the import and export demandfunctions to determine the impact of liberalization on export and import activities in Indonesia.The results indicate that, for this nation, trade liberalization policies measured through exporttaxes and import duties negatively impact exports and imports. To deal with fiscal issues, itcan be concluded that the policies of trade liberalization are still able to increase importvolume. Conditions of poverty and inequality in a country can also be influenced by theopenness of its economy. The results reveal that trade liberalization negatively impactspoverty and may reduce poverty levels in Indonesia.

The thesis discusses the position of the European automotive industry in comparison to the other world centers of automobile production after the economic crisis which began in 2007. One of the EU industry and trade policy's instruments is the system of trade agreements between EU and its partners. This thesis focuses on analysis of the strategic decisions of the automobile manufacturers related to the current trade agreements and estimates the impacts of the upcoming agreements, especially of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership and free trade agreements with Japan and India.

Mozambique is one of the poorest countries in the world, with most of its population living in rural areas. The study analysed the impact of trade liberalization on peasant farmers involved in fruit production in Marera in Central Mozambique and measured their benefits and life improvements as compared with the decade of the 1990s. It found that 73.3% of peasant farmers assess their life as little better than 10-15 years ago and only 5.6% have experienced substantial improvements. It was discovered that better knowledge and access to productive resources play a role in improving benefits from fruit production and trade. Therefore, the study concluded that although trade liberalization can bring benefits, when appropriate conditions are met, peasant farmers in Marera are not different from their counterparts around the world and benefit little from trade liberalization. / Development Studies / M.A. (Development Studies)

Trade liberalization in Kenya started in the early 1980s with the structural adjustment programmes, and continued under the multilateral framework of the WTO. During the same period, the incidence of poverty and level of inequality also worsened. The government’s focus on trade negotiations has been to ensure that there is policy space for the daily running of the economy even though welfare impacts are also important. Non-state actors have argued that trade liberalization has negatively affected the poor; particularly the farmers, since they cannot compete with the developed countries whose farmers enjoy significant government support through subsidies, making their products much cheaper in the world market. Government officials, on the other hand, contend that trade liberalization is good as it brings in competition and transfer of technology which is good for an economy. It is important to examine how trade liberalization has affected household’s welfare in Kenya, given that this kind of analysis has not been conducted in Kenya. This study is unique because it does not assume the existence of a trade liberalization– poverty relationship, unlike most studies. It uses a multi-method approach to first test the hypothesis that there is no statistically significant relationship between trade liberalization and poverty, it further tests for multiplier effects of trade liberalization on poverty determinants. Trade Liberalization and poverty is found to have a stochastic relationship, furthermore investments and capital stock were found to significantly affect poverty determinants in the stochastic model. Due to unavailability of household welfare measure data in time series, a CGE model was used to establish the dynamics of trade liberalization on poverty at a point in time using the 2003 Social Accounting Matrix Data for Kenya. Overall, trade liberalization accompanied by FDI had the greatest impact on household welfare. Trade liberalization had a positive impact on household welfare since household incomes and consumption increased. Micro simulations results, based on changes in consumption, also showed that poverty incidence reduced for all households, even though the urban households experienced higher decreases. The study found that there was little difference in protecting sensitive products and not protecting them; secondly, trade liberalization accompanied by foreign direct investment had greater impact on improving the household welfare. Consumption and incomes increased, resulting in overall poverty reduction. The welfare of urban households was much higher than rural households in terms of income and consumption increases. However, income inequality was much higher in urban than rural areas. / Economics / D. Litt. et Phil. (Economics)