Problem statement: Accurate and reliable forecasts of trends in the housing market can be useful information for market participants as well as policy makers. This information may be useful to minimize risk related to market uncertainty. Since the burst of the housing bubble in the early 1990s the price level of single-family houses has risen sharply in Sweden. The Swedish housing market has experienced an unusually long period of high growth rates in transaction prices which has opened up for discussions about the risk of another housing bubble. Business and property cycles have shown to contain asymmetries, which linear models are unable to pick up and therefore inappropriate to analyze cycles. Approach: Therefore, this study uses non-linear models which are able to pick up the asymmetries. The estimated models are variations of the Markov-switching regression model, i.e. the Markov-switching autoregressive (MS-AR) model and the Markov-switching dynamic regression (MS-DR) model. Results: Our ndings show that the MS-AR(4) model allowing for varying variance across regimes estimated using the growth rate of FASTPI produce superior forecasts over other MSAR models as well as variations of the MS-DR model. The average expected duration to remain in a positive growth regime is between 6.3 and 7.3 years and the average expected duration to remain in a negative growth regime is between 1.2 to 2.5 years. Conclusion: The next regime shift in the Swedish housing market is projected to occur between 2018 and 2019, counting the contraction period in 2012 as the most recent negative regime. Our ndings support other studies ndings which indicate that the longer the market has remained in one state, the greater is the risk for a regime shift. / Problemformulering: Noggranna och tillforlitliga prognoser om utvecklingen pa bostadsmarknaden kan vara anvandbar information for marknadsaktorer samt beslutsfattare. Denna information kan vara anvandbar for att minimera risken relaterad till osakerheten pa marknaden. Sen bostadsbubblan sprack i borjan av 1990-talet har prisnivan for smahus okat kraftigt i Sverige. Den svenska bostadsmarknaden har upplevt en ovanligt lang period av hog tillvaxt i transaktionspriser som har oppnat upp for diskussioner om risken for en ny bostadsbubbla. Konjunkturoch fastighetscykler har visat sig innehalla asymmetrier som linjara modeller inte kan uppfanga och darfor visat sig vara olampliga for att analysera cykler. Tillvagagangssatt: Darfor anvander den har studien icke-linjara modeller som kan uppfanga dessa asymmetrier. De skattade modellerna ar variationer av Hamiltons Markov-switchingmodell, dvs. en autoregressiv Markov-switchingmodell (MS-AR) och en dynamisk Markov-switchingmodell (MS-DR). Resultat: Resultatet visar att MS-AR(4)-modellen som tar hansyn till varierande varians over regimerna estimerad med tillvaxten av FASTPI producerar overlagsna prognoser jamfort med andra MS-AR-modeller samt variationer av MS-DR-modellen. Den genomsnittliga forvantade varaktigheten att benna sig i en positiv regim ar mellan 6,3 och 7,3 ar och den  genomsnittliga forvantade varaktigheten att benna sig i en negativ regim ar mellan 1,2 till 2,5 ar. Slutsats: Nasta regimskifte pa den svenska bostadsmarknaden beraknas ske mellan 2018 och 2019, antaget att nedgangen under 2012 ar den senaste negativa regimen. Resultatet stodjer tidigare studier, som tyder pa att ju langre marknaden har varit i ett tillstand, desto storre ar risken for ett regimskifte.

Denna studie undersöker vilka upplevelser och erfarenheter som påverkat individer när de tagit beslutet att lämna en kriminell livsstil; och vilka faktorer som varit avgörande i förändringsprocessen till ett liv utan kriminalitet. Kvalitativa intervjuer har använts som metod för att besvara frågeställningarna. Fem personer med koppling till organisationen KRIS har intervjuats och resultatet har analyserats utifrån en teoretisk referensram bestående av Laub och Sampsons (2006) definition av begreppet turning points; Paternoster och Bushways (2009) identitetsteori om avhopp från kriminalitet; och Emirbayer och Mishes (1998) teoretiska beskrivning av begreppet human agency. Resultatet visar att alla intervjupersonerna påverkats av crystalization of discontent och drivkraften att undvika the feared possible self (Paternoster & Bushway, 2009) när de beslutat att lämna kriminaliteten. Den egna viljan beskrivs av intervjupersonerna som den mest avgörande faktorn i förändringsprocessen. Andra faktorer som varit betydande är socialt stöd och att hålla fast vid nya rutiner kopplade till livet utan kriminalitet. Slutsatserna i uppsatsen är att det sällan räcker med enskilda faktorer, ofta är det ett samspel mellan flera faktorer som leder till förändring. / The purpose of the present study is to identify events and experiences that influences individuals to make the decision to desist from a criminal life style; and to identify crucial and important factors in the process of desisting from a criminal life style. The used method is qualitative interviews. Five persons connected to KRIS (an organization with the aim to help desisters) were interviewed and the results were analyzed through a theoretic framework consisting Laub and Sampson ́s (2006) definition of the concept of turning points; Paternoster and Bushway ́s (2009) identity theory of desistance from crime; and Emirbayer and Mishe ́s theoretical definition of the concept of human agency. The result shows that all interviewees were affected by crystalization of discontent and the motive to avoid feared possible self (Paternoster & Bushway, 2009) when they decided to desist from criminality. The own will was identified as the most crucial factor in the process of criminal desistance. Social support and the importance of hanging on to new routines were mentioned as other important factors in the process. The conclusion of the study is that it is seldom enough with single factors as solutions to the problems of this study. A successful desistance process is often a result of an interplay between several factors.

Den första tiden efter frigivning beskrivs som kritisk gällande återfall i brott då det innebär hinder och svårigheter i att anpassa sig till en konform livsstil. När det gäller dessa hinder kan frivilligorganisationer bidra till att minska återfall i brott. Följande studie syftar till att bidra till kunskap om att förebygga återfall i brott efter avslutad fängelseverkställighet. Studien avser att undersöka KRIS (Kriminellas Revansch I Samhället) återfallsförebyggande arbete för individer med en bakgrund av kriminalitet och/eller beroendeproblematik. Vidare att undersöka hur KRIS samarbete med Kriminalvården fungerar och kan utvecklas. Studien har en kvalitativ ansats och baseras på sju semistrukturerade intervjuer, vilka har analyserats tematiskt. Studiens fynd visade på att stöd från likasinnade personer som delar liknande erfarenheter av kriminalitet och/eller beroendeproblematik var en central del i vad som ansågs vara viktigt i KRIS arbete. Vidare ansågs KRIS hjälp med personlig utveckling vara betydelsefull när det kommer till motivation och bibehållande av en konform livsstil. KRIS samarbete med Kriminalvården fungerade väl enligt Förening Två, men Förening Ett hade inte ett pågående samarbete på grund av coronapandemin och en omorganisation. Däremot betonades en efterfrågan kring Kriminalvårdens bemötande av individer som avslutat en fängelseverkställighet och deras behov av socialt och instrumentellt stöd. / The first period after release from prison is described as critical regarding recidivism. There are obstacles and difficulties in returning to a conformist lifestyle. In regard to these obstacles, voluntary organizations can play a part in helping reduce recidivism. The following study aims to contribute to knowledge about preventing recidivism after prison terms have been completed. The study intends to examine KRIS’s relapse prevention work for ex-criminals and/or people who suffer from addiction. Furthermore, to investigate how KRIS’s (Criminal’s Revenge In Society) collaboration with the Swedish Correctional Service functions and can be developed. The study has a qualitative approach and is based on seven semi-structured interviews analyzed through thematic analysis. The study found that support through community with like-minded people who shared similar experiences of crime and/or addiction became a central and recurring point in what was important when a person sought help from KRIS. Furthermore, KRIS’s contribution to personal development was important when it came to motivation and the maintenance of a conventional lifestyle. The associations’ cooperation with the Swedish Correctional Service worked well according to one organization, but the other did not have an ongoing cooperation due to the corona pandemic and a reorganization. However, there was a demand regarding the treatment of individuals and their need for social and instrumental support.

In this essay we have chosen to study single mothers who in conjunction with their parental leave have chosen to change career direction. Through personal and previous experiences during our time at Malmö University we have come into contact with single mothers who had gone through a journey such as the one described which in form led us to question what influences this group and how guidance counsellors can guide them through these turning-points. To be able to identify the reasons for the change of career direction we have chosen to use the following questions: What factors have influenced single mothers'  who have decided to change career direction? Have single mothers' views on their career development changed in the context of parenthood? If so, how? How can career counsellors best guide single mothers in their career transitions?     We have carried out qualitative interviews with six informants who have decided to change career direction by studying or changing workplace. The theoretical framework this essay will be analysed through is based on Bourdieu's research regarding habitus, capital and fields and Hodkinson and Sparkes’ Careership Theory and its horizons of action, turning-points and periods of routine.     The results state that many single mothers, mainly those who have worked in the tourism-, restaurant- or event business previous to their parenthood find it difficult to combine those fields of work with the responsibility of being a single parent. As a result they have either tried to find jobs that fit with their new needs or they have chosen to study. The decision to study has been one with dual purposes; one being the possibility of a higher paying job, for which an education is quite important in Sweden, and the other being the freedom it gives you as the parent of a young child to shape your schedule to fit your current situation.