Cette thèse de doctorat vise l’examen critique de certaines théories de champ moyen nucléaire phénoménologiques, en se focalisant sur la description fiable des niveaux de particules individuelles. L’approche suivie ici est nouvelle en ce sens que elle permet non seulement la prédiction des valeurs numériques obtenues avec ce formalisme, mais également une estimation des distributions de probabilités correspondant aux résultats expérimentaux. Nous introduisons le concept des ≪erreurs théoriques≫, visant estimer, dans un cadre mathématique bien établi, les incertitudes relatives aux modélisations théoriques. Il est également introduit une notion subjective de pouvoir prédictif des Hamiltoniens nucléaires, qui est analysé dans le contexte des spectres énergétiques de particules individuelles. Le concept mathématique du ≪Problème Inverse≫ est appliqué aux Hamiltoniens de champ moyen réalistes. Cette technique permet la prédiction de propriétés du système partir d’un nombre limité de données. Afin d'approfondir notre connaissance des Problèmes Inverses, nous focalisons notre attention sur un problème mathématique simple. Une fonction dépendant de quatre paramètres libres est introduite afin de reproduire des données ≪expérimentales≫. Nous étudions le comportement des paramètres ≪fittés≫, leur corrélation, ainsi que les erreurs associées. Cette étude nous aide comprendre la signification de la formulation correcte du problème en question. Il nous montre également l'importance d'inclure les erreurs expérimentales et théoriques dans la solution. / This thesis is a critical examination of phenomenological nuclear mean field theories, focusing on reliable description of levels of individual particles. The approach presented here is new in the sense that it not only allows to predict the numerical values obtained with this formalism, but also yields an estimate of the probability distributions corresponding to the experimental results. We introduce the concept of ‘theoretical errors’ to estimate uncertainties in theoreticalmodels. We also introduce a subjective notion of ‘Predictive Power’ of nuclear Hamiltonians, which is analyzed in the context of the energy spectra of individual particles. The mathematical concept of ‘Inverse Problem’ is applied to a realistic mean-field Hamiltonian. This technique allows to predict the properties of a system from a limited number of data. To deepen our understanding of Inverse Problems, we focus on a simple mathematical problem. A function dependent on four free parameters is introduced in order to reproduce ‘experimental’ data. We study the behavior of the ‘fitted’ parameters, their correlation and the associated errors. This study helps us understand the importance of the correct formulation of the problem. It also shows the importance of including theoretical and experimental errors in the solution.

La caractérisation non-destructive de la variabilité spatiale et temporelle de la teneur en eau pour des milieux hétérogènes superficiels est un enjeu de taille pour la compréhension du fonctionnement hydrogéologique de certaines zones critiques.Pour répondre à ces besoins, une candidate potentielle est la méthode de Résonance Magnétique des Protons (RMP), technique géophysique récente qui permet d'imager la teneur en eau de la subsurface de façon directe. Ses déclinaisons opérationnelles en 2-D et en 3-D sont émergentes et nécessitent une étude exhaustive afin d'en comprendre les possibilités et les limitations.Le caractère intégrateur de la mesure RMP, en conjonction avec l'erreur expérimentale qui la contamine, limite la résolution de la méthode. Conséquence : la traduction d'un jeu de mesures sous la forme d'une distribution spatiale de teneur en eau n'est pas unique. Certaines sont plus désirables que d'autres, aussi des aprioris géométriques sont-ils utilisés pour limiter l'espace des solutions possibles. De ce fait, l'estimation qui est faite de la teneur en eau est biaisée (aprioris) et entachée d'incertitudes (bruit), jamais quantifiées à ce jour à plus d'une dimension.Afin de mettre à jour les processus qui vont influencer la résolution spatiale et l'estimation du volume d'eau, les propriétés du problème direct de l'imagerie RMP sont analysées au moyen d'outils non-biaisés telles que les corrélations.Le problème d'imagerie RMP inverse étant non-linéaire, ce travail de thèse propose une méthodologie de reconstruction d'images de la teneur en eau qui offre l'accès aux analyses des incertitudes, axée sur un algorithme d'échantillonnage inverse de Monte-Carlo (Metropolis-Hastings). Une étude intensive des biais introduits par l'apriori sur la reconstruction de différents volumes 3D est effectuée.Enfin, les possibilités d'imageries RMP sont illustrées sur deux cas d'applications réels en milieux hétérogènes karstiques ou thermo-karstiques, validés par comparaison avec d'autres sources d'informations. Le premier cas est une imagerie 2-D du conduit karstique de Poumeyssens, dont la cartographie est connue.Le deuxième cas est l'imagerie 3-D d'une poche d'eau sous-glaciaire dans le glacier de Têre-Rousse laquelle est explorée par de nombreux forages et d'autres méthodes géophysiques. / The non-destructive observation of the ground water content's variaiblity in time and space is a major issue to understand the hydrodynamical functioning of heterogeneous media.Although many geophysical methods derive the water content of the subsurface from intermediate physical parameters, the method of surface nuclear magnetic resonance (SNMR) provide a direct estimate of ground water content. For this method, 2-D or 3-D SNMR tomography applications are only emerging and an in-depth analysis is required to assess their possibilities and limitations.The general resolution of the method is limited because the measurement characterize an important volume and is contaminated by electromagnetic noise. Consequently, the translation of measurement into an image of water content admit many solutions. Among them, several are more desirable than others from a structural/geometrical stand point. Geometrical prior knowledge are used to limit the infinite solution space. The resulting water content estimate is necessarily biased (prior knowledge) and affected by uncertainties (noise). To date, those aspects have never been quantified for 2-D and 3-D SNMR data sets.The processes that are controlling the geometrical rendering and the estimated water volume, properties of the SNMR imaging problem are analyzed using correlations and linear regressions as they are unbiased tools for the data space analysis.As the MRS inverse problem is non-linear, this thesis proposes a monte carlo based methodology (Metropolis- Hastings) to provide water content and uncertainty estimates. As the geometrical prior expectations control the estimates, the resulting bias is explored and discussed for different water content configuration.Finally, the possibilities of MRS imaging are illustrated by means of two highly heterogeneous environments: thermo-karstic and karstic. The results of the MRS imagery are compared and validated with other types of knowledge. The first case is a 2-D imaging of the conduit Poumeyssens karst. The latter geometry is precisely known. The second case is the 3-D imaging of a internal cavity inside the french alp glacier Tete-Rousse, explored by multiple other destructive and non-destructive methods.

Les travaux présentés dans cette thèse portent sur la conception robuste de produit et plus particulièrement sur la phase de pré-dimensionnement dans le cas où un modèle de dimensionnement et un cahier des charges sont déjà définis. Une approche pour réaliser de l’optimisation robuste est proposée pour réduire la dispersion de la fonction objectif du cahier des charges du produit lorsque les paramètres de conception sont sujets aux incertitudes, conserver une bonne performance du produit et assurer une faisabilité des contraintes. Nous proposons ainsi la formulation d’un cahier des charges dit « robuste » transformant la fonction objectif et les contraintes du cahier des charges initial afin d’intégrer une notion de robustesse préalablement définie. La seconde contribution est une analyse des méthodes trouvées dans la littérature pour la propagation d’incertitudes à travers des modèles de dimensionnement. Les variations des paramètres sont alors modélisées par des dispersions probabilistes. L’analyse théorique du fonctionnement de chaque méthode est complétée par des tests permettant d’étudier la précision des résultats obtenus et de sélectionner la méthode utilisée par la suite. L’approche pour l’optimisation robuste de produit proposée dans ce travail est finalement mise en œuvre et testée sur deux études de cas. Elle intègre la méthode de propagation d’incertitudes dans une boucle de l’algorithme d’optimisation de manière à automatiser la recherche d’une solution optimale robuste pour le dimensionnement du produit. / The work presented in this thesis deals with the robust design of products. Particularly, it focuses on the design process preliminary phase where design models and specifications are already defined. A robust optimization approach is proposed. It aims to: reduce the scattering of the objective function included in the product specifications when the uncertainties reach the design parameters, maintain good performance of the product and ensure the constraints feasibility. We propose a new “robust” product specification that changes the objective function and the constraints of the initial specification in order to integrate the concept of robustness previously defined. The second contribution is an analysis of methods found in literature to propagate uncertainties across design models. Design parameter variations are modeled by probability distributions. The theoretical analysis of these methods is completed by numerous tests to investigate the accuracy of the results and to select the method used thereafter. The robust product optimization approach proposed in this work is finally implemented and tested on two case studies. It incorporates the propagation of uncertainties within the optimization loop to automate the search of a robust optimal solution for the design product.

Après l’accident de la centrale de Tchernobyl, environ 800 tranchées peu profondes ont été creusées dans la zone d’exclusion afin d’y enfouir des déchets radioactifs. Cependant, ces tranchées, construites dans des sables éoliens, ne constituent pas une barrière efficace contre la migration des radionucléides dans l’aquifère superficiel. La tranchée T22 sert de support pour étudier des questions générales : quelles sont les incertitudes sur le volume et l’activité des déchets contaminés, et sur la qualité des eaux en aval ?Les estimations antérieures de l’inventaire de la tranchée supposent linéaire la corrélation entre l’activité spécifique mesurée sur des échantillons de sol et le taux de comptage gamma in situ. Des simulations géostatistiques sont utilisées pour étudier cette corrélation, et sa sensibilité à la variabilité spatiale de l'activité ainsi qu'au milieu environnant. Si la corrélation peut effectivement être supposée linéaire, l'étude des données d’une campagne de terrain menée en septembre 2015 montre qu'il est préférable de cokriger l'activité par le comptage radiométrique plutôt que de transformer les données de comptage.L’inventaire en 137Cs présent dans la tranchée en 1999 est révisé ici puis comparé à une estimation antérieure. La profondeur de la tranchée est interpolée en utilisant conjointement les résultats de profils géoradar, et des données de sondages radiométriques forés dans la tranchée. Les résultats de cette nouvelle analyse géostatistique, complétée par des simulations, ont permis de quantifier l’incertitude sur le stock de 137Cs dans la tranchée.Enfin, un modèle hydrogéologique 2D non saturé est construit afin d’évaluer l’effet de la variabilité spatiale du terme source sur le panache de 90Sr généré par la tranchée T22. Ce modèle simule par ailleurs le battement de la nappe qui pourrait expliquer les différences observées entre les modèles antérieurs et les observations. Une analyse de sensibilité est conduite en dernier lieu afin d’évaluer l’influence des différents paramètres d’écoulement et de transport sur les chroniques de concentrations en 90Sr simulées au cours du temps. / Following the explosion at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, about 800 shallow trenches were dug to bury radioactive waste in the exclusion zone. However, these trenches were built in permeable aeolian sand and do not prevent the migration of radionuclides in the superficial aquifer. Trench T22 allows us to explore general research problems such as the uncertainty linked to the volume and the activity of radioactive waste, and to the water quality in groundwater downstream the trench.Previous estimations of the trench inventory assume that the correlation between specific activity measured in soil samples and in situ count rate is linear. Geostatistical simulations are used to analyze this correlation and its sensitivity to the activity spatial variability and to its surrounding environment. If the correlation can be considered as linear, the study of field measurements undertaken in 2015 demonstrates that it is better to apply cokriging to estimate the activity by the count rate rather than transforming the count rate data.The inventory of 137Cs calculated for 1999 is then compared to a previous estimation. The trench boundaries are interpolated using the results of ground penetrating radar profiles and gamma logging carried on boreholes drilled into the trench. The new estimation is completed by geostatistical simulations and enables us to quantify the uncertainty of 137Cs trench inventory.Finally, the effect of the source term spatial variability is explored with the 90Sr migration modeling. The previous 90Sr transport model did not take into account the water table fluctuations which may cause some discrepancies between model predictions and field observations. They are thus reproduced in a 2D non saturated model. A sensitivity analysis on the flow and transport parameters as well as the source term variability is undertaken.

Orientador: Sergio Valdir Bajay / Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Mecanica / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-06T05:07:08Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Carvalho_ClaudioBezerrade_D.pdf: 1717945 bytes, checksum: 278bbb29104ec96389a1e6616a1dc209 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2005 / Resumo: Este trabalho traz uma avaliação critica do planejamento energético de longo prazo realizado no Pais nos últimos anos e aponta tanto para a necessidade de uma melhor integração entre as atividades de planejamento energético, elaboração de políticas públicas e regulação dos mercados de energia, como para uma premente descentralização do processo de planejamento. Como resultados desta análise e com base em experiências bem sucedidas no exterior, são propostos avanços metodológicos para a elaboração de futuras projeções e o desenvolvimento de um modelo integrado de projeção da demanda e da oferta de energéticos. Como a aplicação de tal modelo está vinculada à utilização de uma base de dados ampla e consistente, é proposto o desenvolvimento de um sistema nacional de informações energéticas, integrado a um sistema de informações executivas, cujo objetivo é servir de suporte para as atividades desenvolvidas pelo Ministério de Minas e Energia. Discute-se os vários métodos de tratamento das incertezas nos modelos energéticos, com destaques para a elaboração de cenários alternativos de desenvolvimento e para o uso da técnica Delphi de levantamento de opiniões de especialistas. Monta-se, por fim, à guisa de um estudo de caso que visa contribuir para o necessário processo de descentralização do planejamento energético no País, cenários alternativos de desenvolvimento para a projeção da demanda energética do Estado da Bahia, de uma forma concatenada com cenários semelhantes no âmbito nacional / Abstract: This work brings a critical evaluation of the long-term energy planning carried out in the country in the last years, pointing out both for the need of a better integration of the activities concerning energy planning, policy making and regulation of energy markets, and for an urgent decentralization of the planning process. As results of this analysis and based on successful experiences abroad,methodological advances are proposed for the elaboration of future forecasts, together with the development of an integrated model for forecasting energy demand and supply. As the application of such a model requires a broad and consistent data basis, setting up a national system of energy information is proposed, integrated to a system of executive information, aimed to support the activities of the Ministry of Mines and Energy. The several methods for treating uncertainties in energy modeling are discussed, with emphasis on the elaboration of alternative development scenarios and the use of the Delphi technique for collecting and processing the opinions of specialists. At the end, alternative development scenarios for forecasting the energy demand in the State of Bahia, linked to similar scenarios at the national level, are elaborated, as a study case aimed to contribute for the necessary decentralization process of energy planning in the country / Doutorado / Planejamento de Sistemas Energeticos / Doutor em Planejamento de Sistemas Energéticos

Orientador: Denis Jose Schiozer / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Mecanica e Instituto de Geociencias / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-14T08:35:58Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Nogueira_PedrodeBrito_M.pdf: 5381292 bytes, checksum: 7daa3a9850818d7643ba69731ca167f2 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009 / Resumo: Os altos níveis de incerteza e riscos associados a projetos de exploração e produção de alguns campos de petróleo sugerem a utilização de estratégias de produção otimizadas probabilisticamente. Desta forma, uma estratégia de produção adequada deve ser selecionada considerando vários cenários econômicos e geológicos. Neste trabalho, uma nova abordagem para otimização é proposta onde a estratégia de produção é otimizada simultaneamente em todos os cenários econômicos e modelos geológicos representativos (MGR) considerados. Diferentemente das metodologias convencionais de otimização, onde os valores presentes líquidos das estratégias são otimizados independentemente para cada MGR considerando um único cenário econômico, esta nova abordagem considera todos os MGR e cenários econômicos adotados simultaneamente. Isto permite disponibilizar mais informações a respeito do desempenho da estratégia nos diversos cenários permitindo que se realize uma melhor tomada de decisão. Além disso, a estratégia de produção definida pela abordagem proposta tende a ser mais adaptável às incertezas geológicas e econômicas. Contudo, geralmente, uma complexa superfície de resposta é gerada no processo de otimização da quantidade e posicionamento dos poços. O elevado potencial de geração de valores extremos locais justifica a utilização de técnicas robustas de busca como os algoritmos genéticos. Neste caso, o espaço solução é mais bem explorado conduzindo a resultados mais confiáveis. Entretanto, técnicas de busca dispersas tendem a ser mais caras computacionalmente que técnicas baseadas no cálculo dos gradientes da função-objetivo. Neste trabalho é proposta uma metodologia de otimização probabilística de estratégias de produção baseadas em algoritmos genéticos que visa reduzir o número de simulações necessárias para maximizar o valor monetário esperado. A idéia principal é controlar o tamanho do espaço solução através de uma representação cromossômica apropriada e implementar etapas específicas de otimização, otimizando todos os MGR para todos os cenários econômicos considerados simultaneamente através de uma técnica de simulação desenvolvida com este propósito. O presente trabalho visa dar uma abordagem mais rigorosa às incertezas que as metodologias geralmente utilizadas conduzindo a melhores resultados e permitindo que se realize uma análise completa dos impactos das incertezas geológicas e econômicas. Além disso, este trabalho pretende propiciar um avanço com relação à redução do número de simulações necessárias para se otimizar uma estratégia de produção através de algoritmo genético conduzindo a resultados mais rápidos permitindo dar dinâmica ao processo decisório. / Abstract: High levels of uncertainty and associated risks in the exploration and production of some oil fields suggest the use of probabilistic optimized production strategies. Therefore, an appropriate production strategy should be chosen considering various geological and economic scenarios. In this work, a new approach for the optimization is proposed where the production strategy is optimized for selected geological representative models (GRM) and under selected economic scenarios simultaneously. Differently from conventional optimization methodologies where each representative geological model has a net present value (NPV) optimized under a specific economic model, this new approach considers all alternatives simultaneously, providing more information about the production performance of all scenarios, allowing a better decision-making process. Moreover, production strategy defined by the new approach tends to be more adaptable to geological and economic uncertainties. However, in the optimization process of wells quantity and placement, a very complex topology is normally produced. The potential of generation of local extreme values is high, therefore, it is appropriate to employ a robust search technique such as genetic algorithms. In this case, the solution space is better explored, yielding more confident results. However, random based techniques tend to be more expensive computationally than gradient based techniques. In this work, a methodology is proposed for production strategy optimization under uncertainties, based on genetic algorithms, that aims to reduce the number of simulations necessary to maximize the expected monetary value (EMV). The main idea is to control the size of the solution space through an appropriated conception of chromosomes structures and the implementation of specifics optimizations stages optimizing every GRM for every economic scenario simultaneously through a simulation technical developed for this purpose. The present work aims to provide an improvement with respect to uncertainty handling of the conventional optimization methodologies, yielding better results and providing a complete analysis of geological and economic uncertainties. Moreover, its intends to provide an advance with respect to the number of simulations necessary to optimize a production strategy through genetic algorithms, yielding faster results, speeding up the decision-making process. / Mestrado / Reservatórios e Gestão / Mestre em Ciências e Engenharia de Petróleo

A conversão de energia vibracional do ambiente em energia elétrica através de dispositivos piezelétricos tem recebido crescente atenção na última década. Com intuito de melhorar o desempenho destes tipos de dispositivo, são discutidos os benefícios da introdução de não linearidades nestes sistemas. O dispositivo utilizado é uma viga cantilever tipo bimorph, parcialmente recoberta por material piezelétrico, com massas magnéticas concentradas na extremidade livre da viga que geram forças magnéticas não lineares. Nesse dispositivo, além da não linearidade proveniente dos magnetos, considera-se também a não linearidade inerente ao material piezelétrico. A solução das equações eletromecânicas acopladas, que descreve o movimento do conversor piezelétrico de energia, é encontrada numericamente resolvendo-se um conjunto de equações diferenciais ordinárias com condições iniciais dadas. A resposta em frequência do sistema é aproximada pelo método perturbativo das múltiplas escalas. A potência elétrica gerada é analisada variando-se alguns parâmetros, como intensidade da força de excitação, distância entre os magnetos da extremidade livre da viga e resistor de carga. A estabilidade do sistema também é investigada através de uma análise dinâmica, de onde se conclui a influência da distância entre os magnetos juntamente com a intensidade da força de excitação nesta estabilidade. Estes parâmetros também influenciam na faixa de frequência de operação do dispositivo. É observado que os efeitos não lineares presentes no dispositivo fazem com que este opere em uma ampla faixa de frequência. É realizado o estudo de incertezas em alguns parâmetros do conversor de energia piezelétrico, através de simulações de Monte Carlo, concluindo a influência destes na frequência natural e na potência elétrica gerada pelo dispositivo. Através de ensaios experimentais confirmam-se os benefícios da introdução de não linearidades nos geradores de energia piezelétricos. / Piezoelectric energy harvesting has received great attention over the last years. The main goal of this work is to discuss the potential advantages of introducing nonlinearities in the dynamics of a beam type piezoelectric vibration energy harvester. The device is essentially a cantilever beam partially covered by piezoelectric material with a magnet tip mass. Also, we consider the nonlinear constitutive piezoelectric equations. The electromechanically coupled equations are solved numerically, through the initial value problems for ordinary differential equations. The frequency response of the system is approximated using the method of multiple scales. The electrical power output is calculated by varying the amplitude of the base acceleration, the distance between the magnets and the load resistor. The stability of the system is also investigated. Stochastic variations are introduced in some key parameters and the propagation of these uncertainties is investigated through Monte Carlos simulations. From the numerical results it is found that the influence of the parameters investigated in the frequency range of operation of the device and the nonlinear effects present on the device energy harvester extend the useful frequency range of these. Moreover uncertainty parameters affect the natural frequency and the power output harvester. Through experimental tests it has been confirmed the benefits of introducing nonlinearities in piezoelectric energy harvesters.

Submitted by Geandra Rodrigues (geandrar@gmail.com) on 2018-10-16T13:11:39Z No. of bitstreams: 1 barbaradasilvamedeiros.pdf: 3659351 bytes, checksum: 5f3a83604095b292ba8f61cabaa96f53 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Adriana Oliveira (adriana.oliveira@ufjf.edu.br) on 2018-10-16T14:35:57Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 barbaradasilvamedeiros.pdf: 3659351 bytes, checksum: 5f3a83604095b292ba8f61cabaa96f53 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-10-16T14:35:58Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 barbaradasilvamedeiros.pdf: 3659351 bytes, checksum: 5f3a83604095b292ba8f61cabaa96f53 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-07-19 / CAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / Nesta dissertação, duas novas estratégias são propostas para calcular o problema do fluxo de potência sujeito às incertezas nos parâmetros das linhas de transmissão e das cargas dos sistemas elétricos. No estudo de fluxo de potência tradicional, os parâmetros dos sistemas de potência são tratados como quantidades determinísticas. Entretanto, esses dados, como a impedância das linhas de transmissão e a potência aparente das cargas conectadas às barras, podem apresentar incertezas associadas à medição ou à variação ao longo do tempo. Técnicas baseadas em amostragem, como Monte Carlo, apresentam resultados excelentes, porém demandam elevado tempo de processamento computacional. Por isso, atualmente, técnicas soft-computing, que apresentam resultados confiáveis de maneira eficiente, sem necessitar de muitos recursos computacionais, têm sido pesquisadas. O objetivo deste trabalho é, neste sentido, adaptar metodologias existentes na literatura, que não são utilizadas, a princípio, para este fim, para a solução do fluxo de potência intervalar e avaliar se os resultados são confiáveis e eficientes. A adaptação é realizada considerando pequenas incertezas, como geralmente ocorre na realidade, resultando em métodos aproximados de análise de fluxo de potência intervalar. O primeiro método desenvolvido é baseado na técnica de montagem direta da matriz impedância de barras, sem recorrer à inversão da matriz admitância de barras. O segundo método é baseado no Teorema da Compensação, utilizado na análise de sensibilidade. O algoritmo é desenvolvido e testado em Matlab, considerando diferentes casos de incerteza, com os seguintes sistemastestes: brasileiro de 33 barras, IEEE de 57 barras e brasileiro de 107 barras. Os resultados são comparados com aqueles gerados pela simulação de Monte Carlo, a fim de validação. Em geral, os métodos apresentam desempenho satisfatório, pois resultados intervalares viáveis de tensão e fluxo de potência, assim como perdas nas linhas, são encontrados como esperado, sem a aplicação de técnicas existentes na literatura, como a matemática intervalar ou aritmética affine. / In this dissertation, two new strategies are proposed to calculate the problem of power flow subjected to uncertainties in the parameters of transmission lines and loads of electrical systems. In traditional power flow analisys, power system parameters are treated as deterministic quantities. However some data, such as the impedance of transmission lines and the apparent power of loads connected to buses, may present uncertainties associated with measurement or variation over time. Sampling techniques, such as Monte Carlo, present excellent results, but require a high processing time. Therefore, nowadays, soft-computing techniques, which present reliable results in an efficient manner, without the need of many computational resources, have been researched. In this sense, the objective of this work is to adapt existing methodologies in the literature, which are not used for this purpose, for the solution of interval power flow and to evaluate if the results are reliable and efficient. The adaptation is performed considering small uncertainties, as usually occurs in reality, resulting in approximate methods of interval power flow analysis. The first method developed is based on the technique of direct assembly of the bus impedance matrix, without resorting to the inversion of the bus admittance matrix. The second method is based on the Compensation Theorem, used in the sensitivity analysis. The algorithm is developed and tested in Matlab, considering different cases of uncertainty, with the following test systems: Brazilian 33-bus, IEEE 57-bus and Brazilian 107-bus. The results are compared with those generated by the Monte Carlo simulation for validation. In general, the methods present satisfactory performance, as viable intervals of voltage and power flow, as well as losses in the lines, are found as expected, without application of techniques existing in the literature, such as interval mathematics or arithmetic affine.

A l'heure actuelle, les nouvelles contraintes de la réglementation thermique en vigueur ne cessent de s'adapter au contexte économique global pour lequel la recherche d'une efficacité énergétique dans le bâtiment est devenue incontournable. Pour répondre à ces défis, des Matériaux intelligents à Changement de Phase (MCP) ont fait leur apparition sur le marché de la construction. Grâce à leur capacité de stockage de l'énergie, les MCP sont de plus en plus associés aux matériaux de construction classiques (béton, plâtre, etc.) afin d'améliorer leur inertie thermique et apporter un meilleur confort aux usagers. Pour ce faire, les propriétés thermophysiques intrinsèques aux MCP doivent être suffisamment maitrisées afin de pouvoir contrôler les propriétés du produit composite final. Dans ce contexte, cette thèse est une contribution ayant pour objectif de développer des méthodologies spécifiques pour une meilleure caractérisation des MCP et des béton-MCP. Une panoplie d'approches expérimentales a été présentée pour l'identification des propriétés thermophysiques des MCP et pour identifier l'effet d'incorporation et de l'endommagement de ces matériaux sur les propriétés thermiques et mécaniques de béton. Plusieurs modèles d'homogénéisation ont été utilisés afin de prédire le comportement thermique des bétons-MCP en utilisant les propriétés thermiques moyennées obtenues expérimentalement. Une étude probabiliste paramétrique a été menée afin de prendre en compte les incertitudes liées à la dispersion aléatoire des mesures expérimentales de propriétés thermiques du béton-MCP. Les résultats issus des essais expérimentaux ont été intégrés dans le cadre d'une étude numérique par la Méthode des Volumes finis (MVF) afin d'étudier le mécanisme de transfert de chaleur à travers une paroi en béton-MCP / The thermal policies have been kept to fit the new economic in a global context particularly in terms of buildings energy efficiency. To meet these challenges, different technologies have been used such as the Phase Change Materials (PCMs) which have the ability to store and release energy. PCMs are generally used with conventional building materials in order to improve their thermal inertia and provide better comfort to users. To enhance the properties of the final composite, the PCMs thermo-physical properties must be sufficiently controlled. In this context, this thesis is a contribution aimed to develop specific methodologies for better characterization of PCM and PCM-concrete. Different experimental approaches will be presented for the identification of PCMs thermophysical properties and to identify the effect of the incorporation and the damage of these materials on the thermal and mechanical properties of concrete. A multiscale modelling considering the average of experimental thermal properties was applied to predict the thermal behaviour of PCMs-concrete. A probabilistic study of experimental uncertainties will be also conducted to assess the level of confidence of the impact of PCM on the thermodynamic properties of PCM-concrete. A numerical study was conducted using experimental data to study the heat transfer through a PCM-concrete wall

Les travaux présentés dans cette thèse visent à apporter des outils d’aide à la décision à partir de modèles prenant en compte une représentation Info-Gap des différentes sources de méconnaissance du système. Il est en effet possible en utilisant des simulations numériques de développer des indicateurs de support à la décision sous un certain niveau d’incertitude aléatoire ou épistémique. Le principe de conception est ici utilisé au sens large, et peut entrer sans le cadre du dimensionnement structural de composants, de la définition de l’amplitude d’excitation maximum d’un essai, ou encore de la mise en place d’une distribution de capteurs. Ces différentes méthodologies sont ici développées puis appliquées sur des systèmes académiques et industriels / The work presented in this PhD thesis aims at propose new decision making tools in order to take into account a Info-Gap modelling of the different sources of lack of knowledge. Indeed, numerical simulation allow to develop useful indicators for decision making under a given level of random or epistemic uncertainty. The design principle is hereby used in its very large sense, and can stand for structural component design, maximum load definition fir vibrating test or sensor placement design. In this manuscript, these different methodologies are developed and applied to academic and industrial structures.