台灣的經濟型態屬於海島型經濟，受限於地域狹小、天然資源匱乏，在要素或產品市場都相當依賴對外投資。自1980年代起，由於國內產業環境惡化，企業為尋求低廉生產成本，維持競爭優勢，形成一股海外投資潮。1990年後，中國大陸的改革及對外開放經濟的政策，更促使台商的投資大批湧向中國大陸。2006年台商對中國大陸投資占整體海外投資比重高達63.91%，顯示海外投資高度集中於中國大陸。在廠商追求最大利潤目的下，產能外移後自有將其產品回銷台灣，搶占市場之獲利誘因。回銷可能取代國內生產，使製造業產值及就業人口減少，甚至削減貿易順差效果。而加入WTO後，政府逐步開放中國大陸商品進口，更使回銷比率大幅提升。政府應對影響廠商回銷因子有所認知並進行政策檢討，避免對相關產業造成重大不良影響。因此，本文的研究目的在於以2004至2006年經濟部統計處「製造業對外投資實況調查」中，最主要投資地區為中國大陸之製造業廠商之追蹤資料，搭配Tobit模型的估計研究，探討以下問題：一、瞭解台商對中國大陸投資概況、台灣對中國大陸產品開放進口概況及2003至2005年大陸投資台商回銷比率變化狀況；二、探究影響廠商回銷台灣金額比率之因素；三、對產品回銷所衍生問題及提昇國內產業競爭力相關議題，提供具體的政策建議。 本文研究主要發現，廠商次要投資地區不論為歐美或東南亞地區對回銷比率均無顯著影響。廠商特性中研發密集度、廠商海外事業規模、開始投資中國大陸時間對回銷比率均無顯著影響；國際化程度及廠商國內事業規模均對回銷比率呈顯著負向影響。投資動機中當地市場發展潛力大、配合國外客戶要求或隨台灣客戶赴當地投資對回銷比率呈顯著負向影響；原料供應方便，價格便宜或利用當地價廉充沛勞工對回銷比率呈顯著正向影響；當地土地取得容易則對回銷比率無顯著影響。水平分工中，產品不同，但台灣生產的附加價值高，對回銷比率呈顯著正向影響；產品相同，但台灣產品較高級以及產品種類及品質完全相同均對回銷比率影響不顯著。垂直分工關係中，台灣生產零組件與半成品，海外事業裝配及生產成品，以及海外事業生產零組件與半成品，台灣裝配及生產成品，對回銷比率均具有顯著正向影響，且後者之係數估計值高於前者。中國大陸投資事業之行銷方式由台灣母公司負責行銷，對回銷比率有顯著正向影響關係。對外投資之23個行業中，有16個行業之回銷比率，相對於食品及飲料製造業顯著為高，其中係數值前五大為精密器械業、電子零組件業、家具及裝設品業、運輸工具製造修配業與電腦通信及視聽電子產品業，顯示這些產業之回銷比率相較於其他產業為高。最後，由時間虛擬變數估計結果發現，相對於2003年，2004年回銷比率並無顯著地高於2003年，但2005年回銷比率顯著地高於2003年。 / Taiwan economy is an inland-style economy, curbed by limited land and lack of natural resource; Taiwan’s factor and product market depend heavily on investment to foreign countries. Starting from the 1980s, due to the deterioration of domestic industry environment, enterprises were searching for lower production costs to maintain competitive advantages; a trend of overseas investment hence formed. After 1990, Mainland China’s reforms and open economic policy have led to a huge inflow of Taiwanese investment into Mainland China. In 2006, Taiwan businesses’ investment in Mainland China is as high as 63.91% of Taiwan’s total overseas investment signaling high concentration of Taiwan overseas investment in Mainland China. Under the objective of maximizing profit, the enterprises have incentives to reverse import their products back to Taiwan for grabbing market share after moving their production capacity overseas. The reverse import could replace domestic production and lead to reduction in manufacturing output value and employment, even reduce the trade surplus effect. After join WTO, the government has gradually opened the market for products from Mainland China which leads to a sharp increase in the reverse import ratio. The government should understand the factors affecting enterprises’ decision on reverse import products back to Taiwan and carry out policy reviews to avoid creating significantly negative impacts on related industries. Accordingly, the research of this thesis aims to use the panel data of manufacturing firms who are primarily investing in China from the “Survey of Current Condition on Manufacturing Industry Overseas Investment” compiled by Department of Statistics of Ministry of Economic Affairs between 2004 and 2006 and combine with Tobit model to conduct an estimation research and probe into the following issues: 1. Understand the general condition of Taiwanese business’ investment in China, the general condition of Taiwan’s progress in opening up market for products from Mainland China and the variation of reverse import ratios of Taiwanese business investing in Mainland China between 2003 and 2005; 2. Probe into the factors affecting the reverse import ratio; 3. Offer concrete policy suggestions for problems generated from product reverse import from China to Taiwan and the related issues of enhancing competitive capability of domestic industries. The major finding of this study is that the secondary investment area has no significantly impact to reverse import ratio no matter the area is Europe, America or Southeast Asia. And if analyzing within enterprise characteristics, R&D concentration, foreign business scale and the time started to invest in Mainland China all have no significantly impact to reverse import ratio; the degree of internationalization and the enterprises’ scale in domestic have significantly negative impact to reverse import ratio. Within investment motives, local market development potential, cooperation with foreign customers’ request or the following of the footstep of their Taiwanese customers have significantly negative impact to reverse import ratio; convenient material supply, cheap input prices or the utilization of local cheap and abundant labor has significantly positive impact to reverse import ratio; the ease of obtaining land has no significantly impact to reverse import ratio. Looking into horizontal integration characteristics, for different type of products, the higher value added if produced in Taiwan has significantly positive impact to reverse import ratio; for same type of products but Taiwan products have higher grade and same quality products, they all have no significantly impact to reverse import ratio. Within the vertical integration relationship, if Taiwan companies make components and semi finished products and their overseas divisions are in charge of assembly and making finished products or the reverse situation all have significantly positive impact to reverse import ratio, and the later situation has higher estimated coefficient value than the former situation. If the parent company in Taiwan is taking charge of the marketing and sell of its invested business in Mainland China, the situation has significantly positive impact to reverse import ratio. Within the 23 industries which invested abroad, compared with food & beverage manufacturing industry, 16 industries have significantly higher reverse import ratios, and the industries which have the top 5 coefficient value are precision equipment, electronic parts & components, furniture & fixture, transportation tool manufacturing & repairing and Computer, Communication, Video & Radio electronic product industries; in other words, these five industries have higher reverse import ratios compared with other industries. Finally, from estimation results on time dummy variable, the study found that the reverse import ratio of 2004 is not significantly higher than that of 2003, however, the reverse import ratio of 2005 is significantly higher than that of 2003.

nÃo hà / A Lei da TransparÃncia provà o acesso Ãs finanÃas pÃblicas. Contudo, comparando o regulado pela Lei e o que se efetiva, desse trade off, desenvolveu-se a investigaÃÃo. Este estudo, utilizando da base de dados do sistema de informaÃÃes municipais do estado do Cearà e dos critÃrios do Manual do SIM estabelecidos pelo TCM-CE acerca das despesas municipais, verificou uma falha da transparÃncia pÃblica municipal, a omissÃo na identificaÃÃo do NÃmero do Processo Administrativo para AquisiÃÃo de Bens e ServiÃos. Para o comportamento dessa falha, denominada de percentual de omissÃes no SIM, a hipÃtese da investigaÃÃo considerou um alto valor para essa ocorrÃncia, e a tentativa de elucidar os fatores por trÃs disso. Essa omissÃo foi abordada pelo modelo Tobit de dados censurados, segundo Tobin (1958). Diante da amostra, nas unidades gestoras selecionadas dos 184 municÃpios do estado do Cearà no perÃodo de 2008 a 2014, investigaram-se estatÃsticas descritivas e explicativas sobre a variÃvel dependente. O modelo confirmou o alto valor, o percentual de omissÃes no SIM apresentou uma mÃdia de 58% e mediana 77%, avaliou-se, entÃo, a influÃncia de variÃveis nesse percentual. Da influÃncia das variÃveis, polÃticas, econÃmicas e educacionais, a da polÃtica foi determinante. O resultado da variÃvel, dummies partidÃrias, apresentou ainda, um fator de aprendizagem. Em relaÃÃo Ãs demais, escolaridade e IDM, apresentaram sinais esperados, quanto maiores, hà menor reincidÃncia de erros. Em conjunto, estas evidÃncias sugerem aos gestores pÃblicos esforÃos para evitar as omissÃes no sistema de dados SIM e assim atender a Lei da TransparÃncia. / The Freedom of Information Act provides access to public finances. However, comparing regulated by law and what is effective, this trade off, research has developed. This study, using of municipal information system database of Cearà and SIMâs Manual criteria established by the TCM-CE about the Ceara State Expenditures by Counties, found a failure of government public transparency, the omission in the Case Number Identification Administrative for Goods and Services Procurement. To the behavior of this failure, called omissions percentage of the SIM, the hypothesis of the research considered a high value for this occurrence, and the attempt to elucidate the factors behind it. This omission has been addressed by the Tobit model of censored data, according to Tobin (1958). Given the sample, the selected management units of the 184 counties in the State of Ceara in the 2008-2014 periods, we investigated descriptive and explanatory statistics on the dependent variable. The model confirmed the high value, the percentage of omissions on the SIM averaged 58% and median 77%, it was evaluated, then the influence of variables in this percentage. The influence of the variables, political, economic and educational, the policy was decisive. The result of the variable, party dummies, presented also a factor of learning. For the other, education and IDM, had expected signs, the larger, there is less recidivism errors. Together, this evidence suggests to managers efforts to avoid omissions in the SIM data system and thus meet The Freedom of Information Act.

台灣1970年代以來經濟起飛，人民生活日漸富裕，隨著經濟實力成長，同時也犧牲了環境，為了使人類永續發展，人民開始重視環境保護，要求政府改善以維護生活品質。因此環保投入的效率成為重要的研究課題。 本研究目的以資料包絡分析法建立客觀的「投入-產出」模型，來評估2001年至2010年各縣市環保機關在空氣、噪音、水及廢棄物污染防制的續效表現，再分析各縣市環保機關整體績效，並研究四個環保評估面向影響整體環保績效的比例為何。 實證結果發現，整體績效而言，台北市、高雄市資源雖然多，但技術仍然不足以應付沉重的環境、人口負荷量，使得投入與產出的效率不如其他縣市。並由各環保面向績效的趨勢分析發現，資源回收率的效率進步最多，水污染防制效率最差。 Tobit迴歸模型中，四個環保評估面向對整體環保面向的影響為顯著正相關，而且資源回收率效率值對整體環保效率值的影響最大，符合本研究預期。 / This research aims at assessing environmental protection performance in Taiwan’s local governments about air pollution, noise pollution, water pollution and resource recycling from 2001 to 2010 base on DEA and Tobit regression model to analyze the effect of each part’s CCR on whole Environmental Protection efficiency. The result of DEA are (1)The Taipei city and Kaohsiung are good in input than other cities, but lower than other cities in output, because there are too many population to deal with those pollution. (2)Analyzing the trend of each environmental protection part, the resource recycling make great progress. According to this study, the fore evaluations are significantly positive effect on whole performance evaluation of environmental protection. The most value is resource recycling that meet our expected

nÃo hà / Nosso principal objetivo neste estudo à investigar o papel da heterogeneidade na atualizaÃÃo, depois de um choque de informaÃÃo, do risco subjetivo sobre vitimizaÃÃo de homicÃdio. Nesse sentido, os dados utilizados neste trabalho tambÃm atestam a superestimaÃÃo do crime encontrada na literatura. A novidade à que os entrevistados receberam um choque de informaÃÃo que consiste na taxa oficial de homicÃdios, mas a grande maioria deles mantÃm a mesma percepÃÃo inicial. Ao propor um modelo de Update Bayesiano permitindo que nenhuma atualizaÃÃo fosse realizada, dois modelos foram desenvolvidos: um Tobit modificado e um modelo Hurdle de dois nÃveis. Assim como em estudos anteriores, nossos resultados mostraram que poderÃamos prosseguir com uma abordagem de Update Bayesiano. Ainda, quanto mais altas as respostas iniciais eram definidas, mais propensos os indivÃduos estavam em proceder uma mudanÃa de percepÃÃo. AlÃm disso, fundamentalmente, pudemos racionalizar a decisÃo de nÃo revisar as respostas seguindo um argumento de qualidade/credibilidade da informaÃÃo percebida. Descobrimos que os participantes mais velhos e as mulheres sÃo mais relutantes nÃo apenas em alterar as respostas iniciais, mas tambÃm na escolha do nÃvel da nova resposta, em caso de mudanÃa. Outra conclusÃo feita foi que o nÃvel educacional dos entrevistados era insignificante em nosso exercÃcio. De fato, o nÃvel educacional do entrevistador teve um papel fundamental em ambas decisÃes de mudanÃa e magnitude de revisÃo. Finalmente, nossos resultados tambÃm levantaram fortes evidÃncias sobre aspectos de homofilia. A ocorrÃncia de uma correspondÃncia em gÃnero entre entrevistadores e entrevistados teve o maior impacto sobre a decisÃo de mudar e na magnitude da atualizaÃÃo neste estudo. / Our main purpose in this study is to investigate the role of heterogeneity into the update of subjective homicide victimization risk after an informational shock. In this sense, the data used here also attests the crime overestimation found in the literature. The novelty is that our respondents faced an informational shock consisting in the official homicide rate, but the vast majority of them keeps the same initial perception. In proposing a Bayesian Update model allowing that no update takes place, two models were developed: a modified Tobit and a two-tiered Hurdle model. In accordance with previous papers, our results showed that we could proceed with a Bayesian Update approach. Also, the higher initial responses are set, more likely individuals are in proceeding a change in perceptions. Furthermore, fundamentally, we could rationalize a non-updating decision following a perceived informational quality/credibility argument. We found that older participants and females are more reluctant not only to change initial responses, but also to choose the level of the new response, in case of an update. In addition, respondentsâ level of education was insignificant in our exercise. In fact, interviewersâ level of education had a key role in both the changing and updating magnitude decisions. Finally, our results also raised strong evidence on homophily aspects. The occurance of a matching in gender between interviewers and interviewees had a major impact on the decision to change and in the magnitude of the update in this study.

No description available.

Este trabalho apresenta um estudo de dados com resposta em intervalos limitados, mais especificamente no intervalo [0,1], como no caso de taxas e proporções. Em diversos casos práticos esta estrutura de dados apresenta uma quantidade não negligenciável de valores extremos (0 e 1) e que modelos usuais não são adequados para sua análise. Para esta situação propomos, por meio de um enfoque Bayesiano, modelos de regressão beta inflacionado de zeros e uns (BIZU) e modelos de regressão Tobit duplamente censurado adaptados nesse intervalo. Técnicas de diagnóstico e qualidade do ajuste também são discutidas. Apresentamos a análise desta estrutura de dados no contexto de série de tempo por meio da abordagem Bayesiana de modelos dinâmicos. Estudos de comportamento e previsão de séries de tempo foram explorados utilizando técnicas de Monte Carlo sequencial, conhecidas como filtro de partículas. Particularidades e competitividade entre as duas classes de modelos também foram discutidas. / This paper presents a study focused on observations in a limited interval , more specifically in [0,1] , such as rate and proportion data. In many practical cases this data structure has a considerable amount of extreme values (0 and 1) and usual classical models are not suitable for this type of data set. We propose two class of regression models to deal with this context: beta inflated of zeros and ones (BIZU) models and Tobit doubly censored models adapted in this interval. Fit quality and diagnostic techniques are also discussed. Time series of proportions are also developed through Bayesian dynamic models. Forecasting and behavioral analysis were explored using sequential Monte Carlo techniques, known as particle filters. Particularities and competitiveness between the two classes of models were also discussed as well.

Este trabalho apresenta um estudo de dados com resposta em intervalos limitados, mais especificamente no intervalo [0,1], como no caso de taxas e proporções. Em diversos casos práticos esta estrutura de dados apresenta uma quantidade não negligenciável de valores extremos (0 e 1) e que modelos usuais não são adequados para sua análise. Para esta situação propomos, por meio de um enfoque Bayesiano, modelos de regressão beta inflacionado de zeros e uns (BIZU) e modelos de regressão Tobit duplamente censurado adaptados nesse intervalo. Técnicas de diagnóstico e qualidade do ajuste também são discutidas. Apresentamos a análise desta estrutura de dados no contexto de série de tempo por meio da abordagem Bayesiana de modelos dinâmicos. Estudos de comportamento e previsão de séries de tempo foram explorados utilizando técnicas de Monte Carlo sequencial, conhecidas como filtro de partículas. Particularidades e competitividade entre as duas classes de modelos também foram discutidas. / This paper presents a study focused on observations in a limited interval , more specifically in [0,1] , such as rate and proportion data. In many practical cases this data structure has a considerable amount of extreme values (0 and 1) and usual classical models are not suitable for this type of data set. We propose two class of regression models to deal with this context: beta inflated of zeros and ones (BIZU) models and Tobit doubly censored models adapted in this interval. Fit quality and diagnostic techniques are also discussed. Time series of proportions are also developed through Bayesian dynamic models. Forecasting and behavioral analysis were explored using sequential Monte Carlo techniques, known as particle filters. Particularities and competitiveness between the two classes of models were also discussed as well.

本研究以2000年至2004年台灣上市櫃的623家電子業為研究對象，探討員工分紅制度對企業經營績效的影響。本研究採用兩階段法，第一階段，採用DEA併用單變量統計之變異數分析法(ANOVA)及無母數分析法(Wilcoxon兩樣本檢定；K-W多樣本檢定)，來驗證電子業實行員工分紅對企業經營績效的影響。第二階段，DEA併用Tobit迴歸模型，比較第一階段單變量統計檢定的研究結果。研究結果發現： (1)電子產業內有發放員工分紅者的企業經營績效顯著較低，同時電子業發放前一年度員工分紅者對當年度的經營績效為負向顯著相關。 (2)電子產業內發放員工現金紅利對企業經營績效的影響顯著高於股票紅利者，同時電子業發放前一年度員工股票紅利者對當年度的企業經營績效為負向顯著相關。 (3)電子產業內員工分紅佔公司市值比例高者對企業經營績效的影響劣於員工分紅佔公司市值比例低者，且在增加其他控制變數後，電子業發放前一年度員工分紅佔公司市值比例高者對當年度的企業經營績效為負向顯著相關。 (4)電子產業內員工分紅佔薪資比例高者對企業經營績效的影響優於員工分紅佔薪資比例低者，且在增加其他控制變數後，電子業發放前一年度員工分紅佔薪資比例高者對當年度的企業經營績效為正向顯著相關。

中國自改革開放以來，財政體系歷經了幾次重大的變革，其中財政分權為一個重要的階段，並且也被認為是促進中國經濟快速發展的關鍵因素之一。但中央將權力下放給地方，是否對地方政府效率造成正面的效益，許多文獻對此議題有著兩面的看法。因此，本文的研究目的主要探討中國財政分權對地方政府效率的影響。 首先，本研究採用DEA衡量中國31個省市的地方政府效率，並以財政收入的自主性衡量財政分權程度。接著，利用中國的省級追蹤資料（panel data），以及Tobit迴歸模型來進行實證分析。其實證結果指出，財政地方分權和地方政府效率之間存在非線性的關係，意即存在一個財政分權的臨界值。而其他解釋變數方面，各省市人口密度和人均實質GDP對地方政府效率為顯著且正面的影響。此外，時間趨勢變數對地方政府效率存在著顯著且負向的效果。 / The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of fiscal decentralization on the efficiency of local governments in China. Fisrst, this study uses the data envelopment analysis to weigh the efficiency of local governments in China, and takes revenue-autonomy to the variable of finance decentralization. Then, by using the panel data in 31 regions during the period of 1996-2008, this study adopts the Tobit model to analyze whether or not the fiscal decentralization provides a non-linear effect on the local government’s efficiency. The empirical result explain why past papers have inconstant conclusions to this problem and provides some important policy implications.

中國大陸在近幾十年來的經濟成長舉世矚目，卻也造成了中國大陸東西部發展不平均的隱憂。有鑑於此，江澤民在1999 年的「中央扶貧開發會議」上首次提出了「西部大開發」戰略概念，期能縮小區域發展不均衡的差距。西部大開發預計進行50 年分三個階段進行，截至2010 年已經完成了第一階段。在這十年間，整個西部地區有著巨大的改變。 　　因此，本文的研究目的在於，利用大陸西部12 個省、市、地區自2000 至2010年的追蹤資料，再運用Tobit實証模型進行實證分析。其實證結果顯示，財政地方分權程度、人口密度、地區生產總值、地方政府規模以及地區開放程度等因素，對地方政府效率值之影響為正向；而財政地方分權程度之平方項與地方政府規模之平方項，則對地方政府效率具有負向影響，即財政地方分權與地方政府規模對於地方政府效率之影響可能呈現非單調性。 / The economic growth of China has increased rapidly in recent several decades, but thisgrowth has resulted in the imbalance between the eastern and western region. According tothis situation, Zemin Jiang first proposed the “Grand Western Development Program” in the“central poverty alleviation and development conference” in 1999, hoping to reduce the imbalance in the regional development gap. After carrying out the Grand Western Development Program, the growth ranges of GDP per capita in some of regions have risen quickly. Therefore, the research purpose of this literature is to analyze the empirical estimation of the Tobit model with the panel data which include 12 provinces, cities, and regions in China western area from 2000 to 2010. The empirical results show that the degree of fiscal decentralization, the density of population, gross regional product, the scale of local government, and the degree of openness all have positive influences on the efficiency of local governments. However, the quadratic terms of the degree of fiscal decentralization and the scale of local government have negative influences on the efficiency of local governments. That is to say, the degree of fiscal decentralization and the scale of local government probably have non-monotonic effects on the efficiency of local governments.