This thesis explores Pioneer Valley farmers and their agricultural practices, knowledge and resources as they relate to climate change. Adaptive capacity is used throughout scientific literature, and often includes numerous components; for this thesis the measurement of farmers’ adaptive capacity would be assessed according to only three components: knowledge, past experiences and use of resources. Climate change and its impacts on agriculture have been studied but what is unclear is how prepared farmers are to deal with these impacts. Through literature review, survey development and recorded interviews, data was then analyzed both for quantitative and qualitative results to understand farmer’s adaptive capacity. Most Pioneer Valley farmers realized changes to their farming practices over 5 to 10 years but were not in consensus of the cause and if this could just be due to climate change. Despite belief in climate change, most were willing to accept assistance to climate change adaptation, even if not knowing what these adaptation strategies would include. As a pilot study, numerous considerations have been included for future work on this topic to reduce assumptions and improve results accuracy. The study was too small to translate to the greater Pioneer Valley for results, but the method is important and applicable in future research and should be examined further to maintain the integrity of the agriculture sector.

No description available.

Relentless overexploitation of natural resources has led to resource scarcity, environmentaldegradation and rising inequalities, straining social-ecological systems to breaking point.Ecosystems providing shared resources often respond non-linearly to resource pressuresbeyond critical thresholds, so-called regime shifts, jeopardizing the stable and just provisionof natural resources. Avoiding these critical thresholds is imperative, as not everyone canadapt to drastic changes in resource availability and distribution. In an unequal world wherecapacities to adapt to crossing critical thresholds vary substantially across individuals, groupsand countries, our understanding of behavioural responses remains limited. This thesisexplores whether and how inequality in adaptive capacities within groups sharing a naturalresource influence both the likelihood of groups crossing a critical threshold and groupdynamics. 160 students from the University of Exeter participated in an online Common-PoolResource (CPR) laboratory experiment comparing inequality and baseline treatments. Whileunequal adaptive capacities did not affect group’s likelihood of crossing the threshold, theynegatively impacted social dynamics and perceptions. Participants with low adaptive capacity(LAC) responded to the threat of the threshold by reducing their harvest significantly whencompared to participants with high adaptive capacity (HAC). Therefore, latent inequalities inthe choice context created real inequalities in resource allocation. Furthermore, HACparticipants lacked identification with the disadvantaged group as evidenced by lowerperceived group efficacy and no reduction in harvest. When the harvest was shared unequally,inequalities were more pronounced in the inequality treatment compared to the baseline.Investigating emotions revealed unexpected findings: Participants did not strongly experienceguilt despite its relevance in prior research, instead, positive emotions, particularlycompassion, were prominent across treatments despite non-cooperative outcomes. Whileresults caution against assuming solidarity of the privileged group solely based on awarenessof unequal impacts, future research might consider fairness, beyond inequalities, tounderstand collective behaviours in unequal contexts. / Inequality and the Biosphere: Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals in an Unequal World

Anpassung ist ein komplexes soziales Phänomen, bei dem das Klimarisiko in verschiedenen sozialen und ökologischen Kontexten reduziert wird. Der 6. Sachstandsbericht des Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change zeigt eine besorgniserregende Realität: Mit zunehmender globaler Erwärmung werden der Anpassung Grenzen gesetzt sein, was darauf hinweist, dass Anpassung allein nicht ausreicht, um den Auswirkungen des Klimawandels entgegenzuwirken. Länder im globalen Süden tragen paradoxerweise die Hauptlast des Klimawandels, obwohl sie am wenigsten für sein Auftreten verantwortlich sind. Es besteht die dringende Notwendigkeit, besser zu verstehen, wo und warum Anpassung stattfindet, was ihren Erfolg beeinflusst und wie die Anpassungsfähigkeit gestärkt werden kann. Die Quantifizierung der Anpassung ist aufgrund ihrer Komplexität schwierig, aber entscheidend für fundierte Entscheidungen und globale Zusammenarbeit. Herkömmliche Klimafolgenabschätzungen vernachlässigen oft die Anpassung oder verwenden einen stark stilisierten Ansatz, was das Potenzial für Anpassung verzerrt und die Notwendigkeit des Klimaschutzes herunterspielt. Es ist wichtig, Anpassung in quantitative Bewertungen einzubeziehen, um fundierte Entscheidungen zu treffen. Diese Dissertation entwickelt Indexe für anpassungsrelevante Maßnahmen im Landwirtschaftssektor und projiziert ihre Umsetzung im 21. Jahrhundert auf der Grundlage verschiedener sozioökonomischer Szenarien. Ergebnisse zeigen die Bedeutung von Governance, Bildung und finanziellen Ressourcen für die Maximierung des Anpassungspotenzials. Länder mit geringer Entwicklung und begrenzter Anpassungsfähigkeit zeigen das größte Verbesserungspotenzial. Die Bewältigung dieser Herausforderungen wird jedoch Jahrzehnte dauern. Die Verbesserung der Anpassungsfähigkeit ist von höchster Bedeutung, nicht nur im Bereich des Klimawandels, sondern auch in breiteren Entwicklungskontexten. Diese Dissertation bietet Einblicke zur Verbesserung der Klimaresilienz und umfassenden Klimafolgenabschätzungen. / Adaptation is a multifaceted social phenomenon where climate risk is navigated and responded to within various social and environmental contexts. The 6th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change highlights a concerning reality: as global warming increases, there will be limits to what adaptation can accomplish, indicating that it will not always suffice to counter the escalating impacts of climate change. Countries in the Global South, often facing the greatest adaptation challenges, paradoxically, are projected to bear the major brunt of climate change despite holding the least responsibility for its occurrence. Given these prospects, there is an urgent need to better understand where and why adaptation is taking place, what drives its success in some places over others, and where efforts are vital for enhancing adaptive capacity. Furthermore, it becomes imperative to determine the upper limit of what adaptation can accomplish and which conditions are necessary to exploit its full potential, in order to fully grasp the risks posed by climate change. Quantifying adaptation is difficult due to its complex multi-level and cross-sectoral nature. Yet, it is crucial for integrating adaptation into climate impact assessments, essential for informed decision-making and global cooperation. Conventional climate impact assessments often neglect the inclusion of adaptation and adaptive capacity, or if addressed, they often adopt a highly stylized approach. This poses the risk of misrepresenting the potential for adaptation, likely overemphasizing its effectiveness while downplaying the need for climate mitigation. Projecting climate impacts without considering adaptation distorts the current reality of societal adjustments, making it essential to provide quantifiable insights into future adaptive capacity. This thesis addresses these challenges by developing three distinct indices for adaptation-relevant measures in the agricultural sector to understand the extent of their implementation and their socioeconomic determinants. These indices are projected throughout the 21st century based on various socioeconomic trajectories. My findings highlight the significance of strong governance, higher education levels, and improved financial resources as key drivers that can empower countries to maximize their adaptation potential. Throughout my analyses, a consistent pattern emerges: countries with modest socioeconomic development and limited adaptive capacity, especially in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, exhibit the greatest potential for improvement. However, overcoming these challenges will span several decades, extending well beyond the latter half of this century. Enhancing adaptive capacity and integrating it into quantitative assessments is of paramount importance not only within the climate change field but also in broader developmental contexts. This thesis encompasses a variety of subjects, providing interconnected insights to enhance the comprehension of pathways to climate resilience and improved impact assessments.

Within the last decade research on climate change strategies and adaptive capacity emerged as the debate about climate change was intensified with the publishing of the Third Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2001. That companies are facing risks and opportunities is not new and the awareness to address these issues is growing. However, there is still need for research in the field of corporate strategic response to climate change. Recently, research focused on resilience management to address climate change. Resilience management is about being able to experience changes and remain stable getting back into the same situation before the change happen. On the contrary to resilience management adaptive capacity is about the ability to be able to adapt to uncertain and unexpected events on the long term. This includes long-term changes. This work argues that companies should think about their adaptive capacity as climate change induces short and long-term changes. Adding this dimension to the strategic planning companies need to think of how they can improve their adaptive capacity. This work investigates research in both issues adaptive capacity and climate change research and in their relation. Applying a systematic literature review this study conducted 60 references which are examined by a qualitative-quantitative analysis and answers the following questions: What is the current scientific view of adaptive capacity within strategic management literature? What are determinants of adaptive capacity? How can adaptive capacity be linked to climate change strategy and is it even antecedent to climate change strategies? The findings of this research indicate that adaptive capacity and climate change strategies exhibit a link but it cannot be proved whether adaptive capacity is antecedent. Furthermore, the term adaptive capacity is merely discussed within strategic management literature and if it is discussed and examined, several concepts and theories are applied to explain determinants of adaptive capacity. Several concepts such as dynamic capabilities, organizational learning capability, organizational learning, organizational change capacity, flexibility and more could be identified as concepts enhancing adaptive capacity. This works provides an overview of related concepts and theories.

A lot has been said about change. For example, it is widely recognised that the only constant is change (Heraclitus, 470 BC). As such, no sensible decision can be made any longer without taking into account not only the world as it is, but the world as it will be (Isaac Asimov). As regards this, a bulk of existing researches have been aimed at understanding the triggers for change and the extent or degree to which individuals, organisations, systems or entities have to change. Generally, results from such studies vary. With specific relations to organisations, organisations are advised of the need to develop added adaptive and dynamic capabilities. One of such added adaptive and dynamic capabilities is organisational resilience. In the literature, organisational resilience has been successful linked with organisations ability to maintain long term performance. Hence, the research is not about re-examining the relationship between organisational resilience and organisations ability to maintain long term performance. This research focuses on exploring the critical success factors required to maintain long term performance and building adequate resilience into systems undergoing changes. The investigation was conducted in three phases, namely: (a) the exploratory phase; (b) the descriptive phase; and the empirical phase. The exploratory phase involved identifying the critical factors essential to maintain long term performance and at the same time build resilience into their systems after undergoing organisation-wide changes. In order to make out these critical, a pilot study was conducted. 21 persons occupying senior managerial positions in different organisations were interviewed. The interview data were transcribed, coded and analysed using coding and thematic analysis to identify five common themes, namely (a) employees readiness to support ongoing organisation-wide changes; (b) development of targeted organisational adaptive capacity; (c) the provision of individualised and social support; (d) the use of stress coping mechanisms; and (e) the existence of organisational resilience strategies. The second phase of the research entailed conducting case study research with the intention of describing the identified critical success factors. The final phase entailed conducting empirical analyses and cross case analysis. Results from the cross case study analyses indicated that both resilience building at the individual level and organisational level is needed for organisations to build in resilience into their systems especially after undergoing organisation-wide changes. Three factors (i.e. employees readiness to support ongoing organisation-wide changes, the provision of individualised and social support and the use of stress coping mechanisms) were found to be more pronounced at the individual level. The remaining two factors namely development of targeted organisational adaptive capacity and the existence of organisational resilience strategies are essentially carried out at the organisational level. The research has contributed to the current body of knowledge on how organisations can strive to maintain long term performance, especially for a country like Nigeria where there still remains a dearth of such related studies. Each of the research hypotheses were either confirmed or non confirmed. This will give the practitioners, academicians and managers of Nigerian organisations the opportunity to understand how each of the sub factors of the five critical success factors can influence on attempts to build organisational resilience. In addition, specific actions that managers can follow over the life of an organisation-wide change project that will improve the resilience of systems undergoing change. In addition, differences in how varied control factors can influence resilience building in organisations were explored and validated based on the results of the Mann Whitney test results. At the end of the thesis, recommendations for future practice and research were made. One of such is that resilience building at both levels be done concurrently and given equal prominence.

Réalisées aux échelles internationales et nationales, les études de vulnérabilité aux changements et à la variabilité climatiques sont peu pertinentes dans un processus de prise de décisions à des échelles géographiques plus petites qui représentent les lieux d’implantation des stratégies de réponses envisagées. Les études de vulnérabilité aux changements et à la variabilité climatiques à des échelles géographiques relativement petites dans le secteur agricole sont généralement rares, voire inexistantes au Canada, notamment au Québec. Dans le souci de combler ce vide et de favoriser un processus décisionnel plus éclairé à l’échelle de la ferme, cette étude cherchait principalement à dresser un portrait de l’évolution de la vulnérabilité des fermes productrices de maïs-grain des régions de Montérégie-Ouest et du Lac-St-Jean-Est aux changements et à la variabilité climatiques dans un contexte de multiples sources de pression. Une méthodologie générale constituée d'une évaluation de la vulnérabilité globale à partir d’une combinaison de profils de vulnérabilité aux conditions climatiques et socio-économiques a été adoptée. Pour la période de référence (1985-2005), les profils de vulnérabilité ont été dressés à l’aide d’analyses des coefficients de variation des séries temporelles de rendements et de superficies en maïs-grain. Au moyen de méthodes ethnographiques associées à une technique d’analyse multicritère, le Processus d’analyse hiérarchique (PAH), des scénarios d’indicateurs de capacité adaptative du secteur agricole susmentionné ont été développés pour la période de référence. Ceux-ci ont ensuite servi de point de départ dans l’élaboration des indicateurs de capacité de réponses des producteurs agricoles pour la période future 2010-2039. Pour celle-ci, les deux profils de vulnérabilité sont issus d’une simplification du cadre théorique de « Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change » (IPCC) relatif aux principales composantes du concept de vulnérabilité. Pour la dimension « sensibilité » du secteur des fermes productrices de maïs-grain des deux régions agricoles aux conditions climatiques, une série de données de rendements a été simulée pour la période future. Ces simulations ont été réalisées à l’aide d’un couplage de cinq scénarios climatiques et du modèle de culture CERES-Maize de « Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer » (DSSAT), version 4.0.2.0. En ce qui concerne l’évaluation de la « capacité adaptative » au cours de la période future, la construction des scénarios d’indicateurs de cette composante a été effectuée selon l’influence potentielle des grandes orientations économiques et environnementales considérées dans l’élaboration des lignes directrices des deux familles d’émissions de gaz à effet de serre (GES) A2 et A1B. L’application de la démarche méthodologique préalablement mentionnée a conduit aux principaux résultats suivants. Au cours de la période de référence, la région agricole du Lac-St-Jean-Est semblait être plus vulnérable aux conditions climatiques que celle de Montérégie-Ouest. En effet, le coefficient de variation des rendements du maïs-grain pour la région du Lac-St-Jean-Est était évalué à 0,35; tandis que celui pour la région de Montérégie-Ouest n’était que de 0,23. Toutefois, par rapport aux conditions socio-économiques, la région de Montérégie-Ouest affichait une vulnérabilité plus élevée que celle du Lac-St-Jean-Est. Les valeurs des coefficients de variation pour les superficies en maïs-grain au cours de la période de référence pour la Montérégie-Ouest et le Lac-St-Jean-Est étaient de 0,66 et 0,48, respectivement. Au cours de la période future 2010-2039, la région du Lac-St-Jean-Est serait, dans l’ensemble, toujours plus vulnérable aux conditions climatiques que celle de Montérégie-Ouest. Les valeurs moyennes des coefficients de variation pour les rendements agricoles anticipés fluctuent entre 0,21 et 0,25 pour la région de Montérégie-Ouest et entre 0,31 et 0,50 pour la région du Lac-St-Jean-Est. Néanmoins, en matière de vulnérabilité future aux conditions socio-économiques, la position relative des deux régions serait fonction du scénario de capacité adaptative considéré. Avec les orientations économiques et environnementales considérées dans l’élaboration des lignes directrices de la famille d’émission de GES A2, les indicateurs de capacité adaptative du secteur à l’étude seraient respectivement de 0,13 et 0,08 pour la Montérégie-Ouest et le Lac-St-Jean-Est. D’autre part, en considérant les lignes directrices de la famille d’émission de GES A1B, la région agricole du Lac-St-Jean-Est aurait une capacité adaptative légèrement supérieure (0,07) à celle de la Montérégie-Ouest (0,06). De façon générale, au cours de la période future, la région du Lac-St-Jean-Est devrait posséder une vulnérabilité globale plus élevée que la région de Montérégie-Ouest. Cette situation s’expliquerait principalement par une plus grande vulnérabilité de la région du Lac-St-Jean-Est aux conditions climatiques. Les résultats de cette étude doivent être appréciés dans le contexte des postulats considérés, de la méthodologie suivie et des spécificités des deux régions agricoles examinées. Essentiellement, avec l’adoption d’une démarche méthodologique simple, cette étude a révélé les caractéristiques « dynamique et relative » du concept de vulnérabilité, l’importance de l’échelle géographique et de la prise en compte d’autres sources de pression et surtout de la considération d’une approche contraire à celle du « agriculteur réfractaire aux changements » dans les travaux d’évaluation de ce concept dans le secteur agricole. Finalement, elle a aussi présenté plusieurs pistes de recherche susceptibles de contribuer à une meilleure évaluation de la vulnérabilité des agriculteurs aux changements climatiques dans un contexte de multiples sources de pression. / The undertaking of vulnerability studies in relation to climatic change and vulnerability at the international and national levels renders them less relevant to a decision-making process at smaller spatial scales where specific response strategies are implemented. Vulnerability studies to climatic change and variability at relatively small geographic scales within the agriculture sector are rare in general, and even nonexistent in Canada, including Quebec. In order to fill in this gap and to contribute to a better decision-making process at the farm level, this study aimed at presenting a description and analysis of the evolution of grain corn growers’ vulnerability to climatic change and variability and other stressors within the Montérégie-Ouest and Lac-St-Jean-Est regions. A general methodology consisting of an assessment of farmers’ overall vulnerability by combining vulnerability profiles to climate and socio-economic conditions has been considered. For the reference period (1985-2005), vulnerability profiles were constructed by analyzing the variation coefficients of grain corn yields and crop area data. By means of ethnographic methods associated with a multicriteria analysis technique, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), adaptive capacity indices of the agriculture sector have been elaborated upon for the reference period. These indices have then been used as a starting point in the construction of scenario indices of future adaptive capacity of farmers for the future period 2010-2039. For this future period (2010-2039), vulnerability profiles for both regions have been created using a simplified version of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) conceptual framework on the components of vulnerability. For the « sensitivity » component of grain corn growers to climate conditions within the selected agricultural regions, a set of grain corn yields has been simulated using five climate scenarios coupled with CERES-Maize, one of the crop models embedded in the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT 4.0.2.0 version) software. In regards to the evaluation of the « adaptive capacity » for the future period (2010-2039), the elaboration of indices for this component has been undertaken by considering the potential influence of the main economic and environmental drivers used in the development of the storylines for two greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios families, namely the A2 and A1B families. The application of the methodological approach mentioned above produced the following key results. For the reference period, the Lac-St-Jean-Est region appeared to be more vulnerable to climate conditions than Montérégie-Ouest region. The coefficient of variation for grain corn yields within the Lac-St-Jean-Est region was evaluated to be 0,35, while the value for the Montérégie-Ouest region was only 0,23. However, with respect to the socio-economic conditions, the Montérégie-Ouest region showed greater vulnerability than the Lac-St-Jean-Est region. The values of the coefficient of variation for the areas under grain corn during the reference period (1985-2005) within Montérégie-Ouest and Lac-St-Jean-Est were 0,66 and 0,48 respectively. For the future period (2010-2039), the Lac-St-Jean-Est region, once again, would seem to be more vulnerable to climate conditions than the Montérégie-Ouest region. The average values of the coefficient of variation for the simulated grain corn yields fluctuate between 0,21 and 0,25 for the Montérégie-Ouest region and between 0,31 and 0,50 for Lac-St-St-Jean-Est region. However, from a socio-economic perspective, the relative vulnerability status of both regions would seem to vary according to the scenario of adaptive capacity considered. With the economic and environmental drivers considered in the storylines of the A2 GHG emissions scenario family, the adaptive capacity indices for the sector under study would be 0,13 and 0,08 for Montérégie-Ouest and Lac-St-Jean-Est, respectively. On the other hand, by considering the economic and environmental drivers considered for the A1B GHG emissions scenario family, the Lac-St-Jean-Est agricultural region would appear to have an adaptive capacity slightly higher (0,07) than that of the Montérégie-Ouest region (0,06). In general, for the future period, the Lac-St-Jean-Est region would appear to have greater overall vulnerability than the Montérégie-Ouest. This situation can be explained mainly by a greater vulnerability of Lac-St-Jean-Est region to climate conditions. The results of this study have to be interpreted within the context of the assumptions considered, the methodology used, and the characteristics of the two regions under study. In general, using a simple methodological approach, this study revealed the « dynamic and relative » characteristics of the vulnerability concept, the importance of spatial scale and consideration of multiple stressors and the integration of an approach different to the commonly used« dumb-farmer » approach for the evaluation of this concept of vulnerability within the agriculture sector. Finally, this study has also identified some new research pathways likely to contribute to a better evaluation of farmers’ vulnerability to climate change in the context of multiple stressors.

With the focus on addressing the sustainability challenge increases in the global agenda, the role of Indigenous communities and the knowledge they hold has been receiving increasing attention as a vital aspect in working towards sustainability. This research sought to bring forth the importance of Indigenous communities and their knowledge in addressing ecological and social sustainability. The research focused on practitioners` engagement with Indigenous communities with the objective of exploring their stories and experiences to offer learning and guidance to other sustainability practitioners. A pragmatic qualitative research approach was adopted in conjunction with literature review, collaborative autoethnography diaries by the authors and nineteen semi-structured interviews with practitioners with experience across sixteen different countries. The results revealed four themed lessons Indigenous communities offer in ecological sustainability, enhancing social sustainability, adaptive capacity in complex human systems, structural obstacles and definitions. Results also presented best practices and guidelines across four main themes for successful engagement with Indigenous communities. The discussion offers insights on what all sustainability practitioners can learn when working in the Indigenous context. Ultimately, becoming the bridge to foster mutual learning between Indigenous and Industrialized world toward global sustainability.

O processo de urbanização da cidade de São Paulo foi caracterizado pelo rápido adensamento populacional e desordenada expansão da área urbana, que destinou às populações mais vulneráveis socioeconomicamente áreas distantes dos núcleos centrais e sem infraestrutura urbana. Esse processo é refletido até os dias atuais, uma vez que parcela significativa da população paulistana reside em ocupações subnormais expostas aos riscos ambientais, o que a torna mais vulnerável aos impactos das mudanças climáticas se comparada às camadas sociais mais privilegiadas e melhor localizadas espacialmente. Apesar das projeções e pesquisas mais recentes relacionadas aos impactos das mudanças climáticas no Brasil, eventos recentes evidenciam que as cidades brasileiras ainda não estão devidamente adaptadas para lidar com esse fenômeno. Entendendo que a capacidade adaptativa de um sistema (uma cidade, por exemplo) refere-se à sua aptidão em mudar para um estado mais sustentável e em mobilizar os recursos necessários para antecipar ou responder aos riscos e impactos das mudanças climáticas, o objetivo desta dissertação é contribuir para uma compreensão sobre a capacidade adaptativa, particularmente quanto à capacidade específica, do município de São Paulo frente às mudanças climáticas. Para tanto, foram analisados três instrumentos vigentes: o mapeamento de áreas de risco, o sistema de alerta e os planos de contingência que possuem interface com o clima - Plano Preventivo para Chuvas de Verão (PPCV), Plano de Contingência para situações de Baixas Temperaturas (PCBT) e Plano de Contingência para situações de Baixa Umidade (PCBU), ferramentas gerenciadas atualmente pela Coordenação Municipal de Defesa Civil (COMDEC). Os resultados obtidos nesta pesquisa, a partir de revisão de literatura, pesquisa documental, realização de entrevistas e grupos focais, evidenciam que as discussões sobre mudanças climáticas e as projeções futuras ainda não estão internalizadas nas ferramentas analisadas e que não há uma integração fortemente estabelecida entre o Comitê Municipal de Mudanças do Clima e Ecoeconomia e os demais setores da Prefeitura. Ademais, revelam que há um distanciamento da população nas ações de planejamento e execução dessas ferramentas e que as descontinuidades político-partidárias interferem negativamente no andamento dessas e de outras políticas públicas, além do déficit de recursos humanos, tecnológicos e financeiros estar associado, principalmente, às práticas ineficazes de gestão (má administração) e distribuição. Um diagnóstico sobre esses instrumentos e recomendações para facilitar o processo de adaptação e aprimorar a capacidade de adaptação específica da cidade de São Paulo serão reunidos e disponibilizados também na forma de um relatório técnico. / The urbanization process of the city of São Paulo was characterized by a rapid population density increase and disorderly expansion of the urban area, which allocated remote areas without urban infrastructure to the most socioeconomically vulnerable population. This process is reflected to the present days, since a significant part of the population of São Paulo resides in subnormal occupations exposed to environmental risks, which makes it more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change when compared to the more privileged and better located social strata. Despite recent projections and researches related to the impacts of climate change in Brazil, recent events show that Brazilian cities are not yet adequately adapted to deal with this phenomenon. Assuming that the adaptive capacity of a system (a city, for example) refers to its ability to move to a more sustainable state and to mobilize necessary resources to anticipate or respond to the risks and impacts of climate change, the objective of this dissertation is to contribute to an understanding of the adaptive capacity, particularly regarding the specific capacity of the city of São Paulo in the face of climate change. For that, the mapping of risk areas, the alert system and contingency plans that have interface with the climate were analyzed - Preventive Plan for Summer Rain (PPCV), Contingency Plan for Low Temperature Situations (PCBT) and Contingency Plan for Low Humidity Situations (PCBU), tools currently managed by the Municipal Civil Defense Coordination (COMDEC). The results obtained in this research, based on literature review, documentary research, interviews and focus groups, show that the discussions about climate change and projections were not yet internalized by the analyzed tools and that there is no strongly established integration between the Municipal Committee on Climate Change and Ecoeconomics and other sectors of the City Hall. In addition, they reveal that there is a distancing between the population and the planning and execution of these tools and that party-political discontinuities impact negatively in the progress of these and other public policies, besides the fact that the lack of human, technological and financial resources is mainly associated with ineffective management (maladministration) and distribution. A diagnosis of these instruments and recommendations to facilitate the adapting process and to improve the specific adaptation capacity of the city of São Paulo will be gathered and made available in the form of a technical report.

Cattle ranching in Vermilion Parish is a social-techno-ecological system (STES) that is currently vulnerable due to changing social, technological and ecological conditions. In addressing ways to increase the adaptive capacity of cattle ranching in Vermilion Parish, I used a multiple, mixed method approach grounded in a critical constructivist framework. Constructivism is the idea that our relationship to facts is constructed by our social context. It is these perceptions that shape people’s actions. By looking at these perceptions through an emancipatory frame I was able to understand multiple interpretations of meaning, consciously address them, consider how they may have shaped our actions, and then alter those meanings and power relationships. In an effort to increase the adaptive capacity of cattle ranching in Vermilion Parish, my research focused on actions, why people perform those actions, and how to change them. This research connected the physical landscape of the marshes, the individual landscape of perception, and the conceptual landscape of resilience. If resilience is the ability of a system (cattle ranching in vermilion parish) to recover after a disturbance, adaptive capacity is when the actors within the system can influence that system’s resilience. I explored the history of cattle ranching in Vermilion Parish from three different, but overlapping perspectives – environmental, social, and technological. These perspectives compliment the information from interviews and 3CM sessions. These 15 interviews revealed the perception of 11 types of threats facing cattle ranching in Vermilion Parish. The body of literature surrounding resilience theory identifies traits of highly adaptive systems. The recommendations and suggestions outlined in Chapter 6 exist at the intersection of the actors’ perception of specific threats and the decidedly generalized traits of highly adaptive systems. These suggestions were geared towards increasing the adaptive capacity of cattle ranching in Vermilion Parish. Given these layered landscapes and their complexity, my recommendations were subject to feedback loops and long periods of integration. These recommendations contribute to the theoretical foundation detailed in Chapter 3 by identifying specific ways that the actors of this particular system may be able increase their own adaptive capacity. / text