abstract: Public risk communication (i.e. public emergency warning) is an integral component of public emergency management. Its effectiveness is largely based on the extent to which it elicits appropriate public response to minimize losses from an emergency. While extensive studies have been conducted to investigate individual responsive process to emergency risk information, the literature in emergency management has been largely silent on whether and how emergency impacts can be mitigated through the effective use of information transmission channels for public risk communication. This dissertation attempts to answer this question, in a specific research context of 2009 H1N1 influenza outbreak in Arizona. Methodologically, a prototype agent-based model is developed to examine the research question. Along with the specific disease spread dynamics, the model incorporates individual decision-making and response to emergency risk information. This simulation framework synthesizes knowledge from complexity theory, public emergency management, epidemiology, social network and social influence theory, and both quantitative and qualitative data found in previous studies. It allows testing how emergency risk information needs to be issued to the public to bring desirable social outcomes such as mitigated pandemic impacts. Simulation results generate several insightful propositions. First, in the research context, emergency managers can reduce the pandemic impacts by increasing the percent of state population who use national TV to receive pandemic information to 50%. Further increasing this percent after it reaches 50% brings only marginal effect in impact mitigation. Second, particular attention is needed when emergency managers attempt to increase the percent of state population who believe the importance of information from local TV or national TV, and the frequency in which national TV is used to send pandemic information. Those measures may reduce the pandemic impact in one dimension, while increase the impact in another. Third, no changes need to be made on the percent of state population who use local TV or radio to receive pandemic information, and the frequency in which either channel is used for public risk communication. This dissertation sheds light on the understanding of underlying dynamics of human decision-making during an emergency. It also contributes to the discussion of developing a better understanding of information exchange and communication dynamics during a public emergency and of improving the effectiveness of public emergency management practices in a dynamic environment. / Dissertation/Thesis / Ph.D. Public Administration 2012

abstract: The Internet and climate change are two forces that are poised to both cause and enable changes in how we provide our energy infrastructure. The Internet has catalyzed enormous changes across many sectors by shifting the feedback and organizational structure of systems towards more decentralized users. Today’s energy systems require colossal shifts toward a more sustainable future. However, energy systems face enormous socio-technical lock-in and, thus far, have been largely unaffected by these destabilizing forces. More distributed information offers not only the ability to craft new markets, but to accelerate learning processes that respond to emerging user or prosumer centered design needs. This may include values and needs such as local reliability, transparency and accountability, integration into the built environment, and reduction of local pollution challenges. The same institutions (rules, norms and strategies) that dominated with the hierarchical infrastructure system of the twentieth century are unlikely to be good fit if a more distributed infrastructure increases in dominance. As information is produced at more distributed points, it is more difficult to coordinate and manage as an interconnected system. This research examines several aspects of these, historically dominant, infrastructure provisioning strategies to understand the implications of managing more distributed information. The first chapter experimentally examines information search and sharing strategies under different information protection rules. The second and third chapters focus on strategies to model and compare distributed energy production effects on shared electricity grid infrastructure. Finally, the fourth chapter dives into the literature of co-production, and explores connections between concepts in co-production and modularity (an engineering approach to information encapsulation) using the distributed energy resource regulations for San Diego, CA. Each of these sections highlights different aspects of how information rules offer a design space to enable a more adaptive, innovative and sustainable energy system that can more easily react to the shocks of the twenty-first century. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Sustainability 2018

This dissertation describes the development of CAMBIUM, an agent-based forest sector model for large-scale strategic analysis. This model is designed as a decision support tool for assessing the effect that changes in forest product demand and resource inventories can have on the structure and economic viability of the forest sector. CAMBIUM complements existing forest sector models by modeling aggregate product supply as an emergent property of individual companies’ production decisions and stand-level ecological processes. Modeling the forest products sector as a group of interacting autonomous agents makes it possible to introduce production capacity dynamics and the potential for mill insolvencies as factors in modeling the effects of market and forest inventory based disturbances. This thesis contains four main manuscripts. In the first manuscript I develop and test a dispersal algorithm that projects aggregated forest inventory information onto a lattice grid. This method can be used to generate ecologically and statistically consistent datasets where high-quality spatial inventory data is otherwise unavailable. The second manuscript utilizes this dataset in developing a provincial-level resource dynamics model for assessing the timber supply effects of introducing weevil-resistant spruce. This model employs a stand-level approach to simulating weevil infestation and associated merchantable volume losses. Provincial-level impacts are determined by simulating harvest activities over a 350 year time horizon. In the third manuscript I shift the focus to interactions between forest companies. I analyze the effects of strategic decisions on sector structure by developing CAMBIUM as an agent-based model of competition and industry structure evolution. The forest sector is modeled as a group of autonomous, interacting agents that evolve and compete within the limitations posed by resource inventories and product demand. In the final manuscript I calibrate CAMBIUM to current conditions in the British Columbia forest sector. Industry agents compete for roundwood inputs, as well as for profits in finished product markets for pulp, panel products, and lumber. To test the relevance and utility of this model, CAMBIUM is used to quantify the cumulative impacts of a market downturn for forest products and mountain pine beetle induced timber supply fluctuations on the structure of the forest sector. / Forestry, Faculty of / Graduate

Project overload is an unpleasant phenomenon which is happening for employees inside those organizations trying to make the most efficient use of their resources. AE project inside VolvoCE (VCE) is an Advanced Engineering project eager to be innovative suffering from project overload. This research aims to help VCE to move towards creative organizational climate. To do this, the author used the Agent-based modeling (ABM) approach to examine the current reality of VCE and AE projects, where the opportunities and challenges for reducing the risk of project overload and moving towards innovation were identified. The results of this research allowed the researcher to define the gaps inside AE project and create a list of some recommendations. From these results: project overload can damage the employees’ focus and bring psychological stress reactions; Creative actions are less likely to be the result of a team with high level of project. On the other hand, motivation on proper challenging goal is more likely to help individual to alleviate the negative aspects of low level of project overload.

Die Dissertation wendet sich insbesondere der Rolle der Ökonomik auf der Metaebene der wissenschaftsphilosophischen Argumentation zu. Ziel ist zu klären, welchen Erklärungsgehalt ökonomische Instrumente in der Wissenschaftsphilosophie haben können. Mit der Economics of Scientific Knowledge (ESK) hat sich seit Mitte der 1990er Jahre ein Literaturzweig herausgebildet, in dem genau diese Zielsetzung verfolgt wird, nämlich das Erkenntnisobjekt der wissenschaftlichen Koordination mit unterschiedlichen Methoden und Instrumenten der Ökonomik zu untersuchen. Es wird gezeigt, dass den analytischen Modellen der ESK einige Probleme inhärent sind, die prinzipiell durch neue Methoden und Instrumente gelöst werden können. Als ein geeigneter Kandidat wird die Agentenbasierte Modellierung (ABM) identifiziert, die eine realitätsnähere Abbildung der Akteure, eine ergebnisoffene Modellierung ihrer Entscheidungen und des Koordinationsprozesses erlaubt. Der Analyse von der ESK zuzuordnenden analytischen und agentenbasierten Modellen folgt im zweiten Teil der Dissertation die Programmierung einer eigenen ABM Continuous Opinions of Satisficing Agents and Discrete Actions (COSDA) mit Hilfe der Multi-Agenten-Programmiersprache NetLogo. In der heuristischen ABM COSDA werden zentrale wissenschaftsphilosophische und ökonomische Prämissen, die im ersten Teil der Arbeit als Problemfelder identifiziert wurden, aufgegeben. Mit Modellierung heterogener Agententypen, die - mit unterschiedlichen Präferenzen und Verhaltensheuristiken ausgestattet - miteinander interagieren, wird eine mögliche Mikrospezifikation für die Emergenz eines Makrophänomens erzeugt. Das Makrophänomen, d.h. die unterschiedlichen Resultate im wissenschaftlichen Koordinationsprozess, sind aus den selbstverstärkenden Effekten der Interaktion erklärbar, aber nicht vorhersehbar. Die Mikrospezifikation kann als relevante, durch eine kohärente Fiktion formulierte Möglichkeit interpretiert werden, die anders als analytische Modelle der ESK kein rationales Entscheidungskalkül der Agenten voraussetzt.

The thesis focuses on the use of multiagent systems to model the rental housing market. At first the aim was to create the simulation, which would bring a new perspective on the development of the entire market. For this purpose I selected a relatively young methodology titled Agentology, which was subjected to the criticism of a model after finishing the model. That was a secondary principal objective of this thesis. The work is divided into two parts. In the first theoretical part the rental housing market is described and there are discussed the most important factors affecting its state. Simultaneously the chapter describes the most significant State interventions into the market, as we know them from the official housing policies. In the next stage the reader is made familiar with the basic principles of multi-agent modeling. In this chapter there is also an overview of selected methodologies of multiagent systems and one of them is selected and applied in further phases of this work. The second part refers to the multi-agent model. Using the Agentology methodology market model is assembled. The methodology accompanies all stages of model development from the task formulation, through conceptual and technological level to the final evaluation. This work strictly adheres to the methodology and all its recommendations. In the end, the result represents a model whose functionality has been verified by analyzing the output data. Finally the thesis deals with criticism of the Agentology methodology. This criticism is a result of experience gained from previous development. It concerns evaluation of concrete steps and also of methodology as a whole in terms of admittance, integrity and practicality.

Le système d’évaluation par les pairs est le gold standard de la publication scientifique. Ce système a deux objectifs: d’une part filtrer les articles scientifiques erronés ou non pertinents et d’autre part améliorer la qualité de ceux jugés dignes de publication. Le rôle des revues scientifiques et des rédacteurs en chef est de veiller à ce que des connaissances scientifiques valides soient diffusées auprès des scientifiques concernés et du public. Cependant, le système d’évaluation par les pairs a récemment été critiqué comme étant intenable sur le long terme, inefficace et cause de délais de publication des résultats scientifiques. Dans ce projet de doctorat, j’ai utilisé une modélisation par systèmes complexes pour étudier le comportement macroscopique des systèmes de publication et d’évaluation par les pairs. Dans un premier projet, j’ai modélisé des données empiriques provenant de diverses sources comme Pubmed et Publons pour évaluer la viabilité du système. Je montre que l’offre dépasse de 15% à 249% la demande d’évaluation par les pairs et, par conséquent, le système est durable en termes de volume. Cependant, 20% des chercheurs effectuent 69% à 94% des revues d’articles, ce qui souligne un déséquilibre significatif en termes d’efforts de la communauté scientifique. Les résultats ont permis de réfuter la croyance largement répandue selon laquelle la demande d’évaluation par les pairs dépasse largement l’offre mais ont montré que la majorité des chercheurs ne contribue pas réellement au processus. Dans mon deuxième projet, j’ai développé un modèle par agents à grande échelle qui imite le comportement du système classique d’évaluation par les pairs, et que j’ai calibré avec des données empiriques du domaine biomédical. En utilisant ce modèle comme base pour mon troisième projet, j’ai modélisé cinq systèmes alternatifs d’évaluation par les pairs et évalué leurs performances par rapport au système conventionnel en termes d’efficacité de la revue, de temps passé à évaluer des manuscrits et de diffusion de l’information scientifique. Dans mes simulations, les deux systèmes alternatifs dans lesquels les scientifiques partagent les commentaires sur leurs manuscrits rejetés avec les éditeurs du prochain journal auquel ils les soumettent ont des performances similaires au système classique en termes d’efficacité de la revue. Le temps total consacré par la communauté scientifique à l’évaluation des articles est cependant réduit d’environ 63%. En ce qui concerne la dissémination scientifique, le temps total de la première soumission jusqu’à la publication est diminué d’environ 47% et ces systèmes permettent de diffuser entre 10% et 36% plus d’informations scientifiques que le système conventionnel. Enfin, le modèle par agents développé peut être utilisé pour simuler d’autres systèmes d’évaluation par les pairs ou des interventions, pour ainsi déterminer les interventions ou modifications les plus prometteuses qui pourraient être ensuite testées par des études expérimentales en vie réelle. / The peer-review system is undoubtedly the gold standard of scientific publication. Peer review serves a two-fold purpose; to screen out of publication articles containing incorrect or irrelevant science and to improve the quality of the ones deemed suitable for publication. Moreover, the role of the scientific journals and editors is to ensure that valid scientific knowledge is disseminated to the appropriate target group of scientists and to the public. However, the peer review system has recently been criticized, in that it is unsustainable, inefficient and slows down publication. In this PhD thesis, I used complex-systems modeling to study the macroscopic behavior of the scientific publication and peer-review systems. In my first project, I modeled empirical data from various sources, such as Pubmed and Publons, to assess the sustainability of the system. I showed that the potential supply has been exceeding the demand for peer review by 15% to 249% and thus, the system is sustainable in terms of volume. However, 20% of researchers have been performing 69% to 94% of the annual reviews, which emphasizes a significant imbalance in terms of effort by the scientific community. The results provided evidence contrary to the widely-adopted, but untested belief, that the demand for peer review over-exceeds the supply, and they indicated that the majority of researchers do not contribute to the process. In my second project, I developed a large-scale agent-based model, which mimicked the behavior of the conventional peer-review system. This model was calibrated with empirical data from the biomedical domain. Using this model as a base for my third project, I developed and assessed the performance of five alternative peer-review systems by measuring peer-review efficiency, reviewer effort and scientific dissemination as compared to the conventional system. In my simulations, two alternative systems, in which scientists shared past reviews of their rejected manuscripts with the editors of the next journal to which they submitted, performed equally or sometimes better in terms of peer-review efficiency. They also each reduced the overall reviewer effort by ~63%. In terms of scientific dissemination, they decreased the median time from first submission until publication by ~47% and diffused on average 10% to 36% more scientific information (i.e., manuscript intrinsic quality x journal impact factor) than the conventional system. Finally, my agent-based model may be an approach to simulate alternative peer-review systems (or interventions), find those that are the most promising and aid decisions about which systems may be introduced into real-world trials.

The dengue virus has become widespread worldwide in recent decades. It has no specific treatment and affects more than 40% of the entire population in the world. In Thailand, dengue has been a health concern for more than half a century. The highest number of cases in one year was 174,285 in 1987, leading to 1,007 deaths. In the present day, dengue is distributed throughout the entire country. Therefore, dengue has become a major challenge for public health in terms of both prevention and control of outbreaks. Different methodologies and ways of dealing with dengue outbreaks have been put forward by researchers. Computational models and simulations play an important role, as they have the ability to help researchers and officers in public health gain a greater understanding of the virus's epidemic activities. In this context, this dissertation presents a new framework, Modified Agent-Based Modeling (mABM), a hybrid platform between a mathematical model and a computational model, to simulate a dengue outbreak in human and mosquito populations. This framework improves on the realism of former models by utilizing the reported data from several Thai government organizations, such as the Thai Ministry of Public Health (MoPH), the National Statistical Office, and others. Additionally, its implementation takes into account the geography of Thailand, as well as synthetic mosquito and synthetic human populations. mABM can be used to represent human behavior in a large population across variant distances by specifying demographic factors and assigning mobility patterns for weekdays, weekends, and holidays for the synthetic human population. The mosquito dynamic population model (MDP), which is a component of the mABM framework, is used for representing the synthetic mosquito population dynamic and their ecology by integrating the regional model to capture the effect of dengue outbreak. The two synthetic populations can be linked to each other for the purpose of presenting their interactions, and the Local Stochastic Contact Model for Dengue (LSCM-DEN) is utilized. For validation, the number of cases from the experiment is compared to reported cases from the Thailand Vector Borne Disease Bureau for the selected years. This framework facilitates model configuration for sensitivity analysis by changing parameters, such as travel routes and seasonal temperatures. The effects of these parameters were studied and analyzed for an improved understanding of dengue outbreak dynamics.

Die Dissertation wendet sich insbesondere der Rolle der Ökonomik auf der Metaebene der wissenschaftsphilosophischen Argumentation zu. Ziel ist zu klären, welchen Erklärungsgehalt ökonomische Instrumente in der Wissenschaftsphilosophie haben können. Mit der Economics of Scientific Knowledge (ESK) hat sich seit Mitte der 1990er Jahre ein Literaturzweig herausgebildet, in dem genau diese Zielsetzung verfolgt wird, nämlich das Erkenntnisobjekt der wissenschaftlichen Koordination mit unterschiedlichen Methoden und Instrumenten der Ökonomik zu untersuchen. Es wird gezeigt, dass den analytischen Modellen der ESK einige Probleme inhärent sind, die prinzipiell durch neue Methoden und Instrumente gelöst werden können. Als ein geeigneter Kandidat wird die Agentenbasierte Modellierung (ABM) identifiziert, die eine realitätsnähere Abbildung der Akteure, eine ergebnisoffene Modellierung ihrer Entscheidungen und des Koordinationsprozesses erlaubt. Der Analyse von der ESK zuzuordnenden analytischen und agentenbasierten Modellen folgt im zweiten Teil der Dissertation die Programmierung einer eigenen ABM Continuous Opinions of Satisficing Agents and Discrete Actions (COSDA) mit Hilfe der Multi-Agenten-Programmiersprache NetLogo. In der heuristischen ABM COSDA werden zentrale wissenschaftsphilosophische und ökonomische Prämissen, die im ersten Teil der Arbeit als Problemfelder identifiziert wurden, aufgegeben. Mit Modellierung heterogener Agententypen, die - mit unterschiedlichen Präferenzen und Verhaltensheuristiken ausgestattet - miteinander interagieren, wird eine mögliche Mikrospezifikation für die Emergenz eines Makrophänomens erzeugt. Das Makrophänomen, d.h. die unterschiedlichen Resultate im wissenschaftlichen Koordinationsprozess, sind aus den selbstverstärkenden Effekten der Interaktion erklärbar, aber nicht vorhersehbar. Die Mikrospezifikation kann als relevante, durch eine kohärente Fiktion formulierte Möglichkeit interpretiert werden, die anders als analytische Modelle der ESK kein rationales Entscheidungskalkül der Agenten voraussetzt.

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第18255号 / 工博第3847号 / 新制||工||1590(附属図書館) / 31113 / 京都大学大学院工学研究科都市社会工学専攻 / (主査)教授 小林 潔司, 准教授 宇野 伸宏, 准教授 松島 格也 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DFAM