重大傷病是我國全民健康保險的重要特色之一，透過社會保險的風險分擔機制，病患享有免部分負擔等優惠，降低因為罹病帶來的財務負擔，但重大傷病同時也成為全民健保的主要支出項目。民國102年領取重大傷病證明者不過98餘萬人（約總人口的4%），但其一年的醫療費用多達一千五百多億元（接近總支出的27%），平均每位重大傷病患者的醫療費用約為平均值的7.34倍，其中癌症又是重大傷病中人數最多者，大約佔了49%（資料來源：衛生福利部中央健康保險署）。因為許多重大傷病的發生率、盛行率與年齡成正比（黃泓智等人，2004），未來隨著人口老化，全民健保支出也將跟著上升。 　　本文使用全民健保資料庫，探討近十年重大傷病（尤其是癌症）趨勢，估計重大傷病的年齡別發生率、死亡率，評估人口老化對全民健保造成的影響，其中承保資料檔（ID）、重大傷病檔（HV）為本研究主要的依據資料。而由於健保資料庫的資料種類及數量龐雜，在初期資料的偵錯及處理上非常重要但也相當費時，至於發生率、死亡與否的判斷亦十分棘手，因此過程中我們將一一說明資料分析步驟及注意事項。本文發現癌症及重大傷病的盛行率逐年上升，但發生率並沒有明顯變化，加上近年癌症死亡率幾乎不變（但台灣全體國民的死亡率逐年遞降），因為台灣的人口老化，預期未來罹患癌症人數會逐年增加，癌症將繼續蟬聯十大死因之首，但罹癌死亡率的下降也可發現近年醫療進步所造成的影響。此外，我們也考量隨機死亡模型（Lee-Carter Model），發現無論是癌症死亡率、或是罹癌死亡率都有不錯的估計結果。而在文末也提出癌症病患的就醫行為以供後續研究者參考。 / Catastrophic illness (CI) is one of the key features of Taiwan’s National Health Insurance (NHI). Through risk-sharing mechanisms of social insurance, it can reduce the financial burden of the CI patients since treating the CI is usually expensive. However, the CI also becomes a major expenditure item of NHI. The people receiving the CI card are just 0.98 million in 2013 (about 4% of the total population), but their smedical costs are over 150 billion NT dollars (nearly 27% of total expenditures). The average medical cost per CI patient is about 7.34 times of the national average. (Source: Department of Health and National Health Insurance Agency). Because the incidence and prevalence rates increase with age (Huang et al, 2004), the total NHI expenditure is expected to increase in the future due to population aging. This study intends to use the NHI database, including the records of personal identification and out-patient visit from all CI patients, to explore the incidence and mortality rates, for example, of CI patients. Because the NHI database is big and messy, we shall first debug and clean them. Also, since the death of CI patients are not fully reported in the NHI database, we propose a method to identify the deaths and use the official statistics to evaluate. The results show that the prevalence rates of all CI increased every year, but their incidence rates did not change significantly. The mortality rates of cancer patients also did not change much. Based on these findings, we expect the proportion of CI patients and their size will continue to grow. In addition, we applied the Lee-Carter model to the cancer mortality rates, and the fit is pretty good.

生育率的降低是影響台灣地區近年來人口老化的顯著因素，因其變化幅度通常高於死亡率，對人口結構的影響較大。過去台灣地區生育率研究多為整體生育(如：總生育率、年齡別生育率)趨勢的模型，較少探討台灣各地區的特色。為能更深入瞭解台灣生育行為變化的特性，本文將生育率的研究層面由整體的資料，延伸至全台灣地區的各鄉鎮市區（不含離島地區有350個鄉鎮市區），希冀能更精確地找出與台灣地區生育率持續下降的相關因素。本文分為兩個部份，以鄉鎮市區的年齡別婦女生育率與年齡別有偶婦女生育率為研究對象，資料時間為1991、1992、2001、2002年：第一部份探討各鄉鎮市區的生育率數值間是否存在空間相關性，並進一步瞭解生育率較高（或較低）的地區是否有聚集的現象。第二部份則套用空間迴歸模型探討與生育率數值有關的因素（例如：人口密度、教育程度等），更精確且客觀地提供生育率未來趨勢的建議。 關鍵字：生育率、人口老化、空間統計、空間群聚、空間迴歸 / Both the fertility rates and mortality rates, especially the fertility rates, have been experiencing dramatic decreases in recent years, and the population aging thus has become one of the major concerns in Taiwan area. In order to identify the factors that are related to the decrease of fertility rates, unlike the previous works that deal with the aggregate national data, we will study the fertility pattern in township level. We will use the data of age-specific fertility rates and total fertility rates in 1991, 1992, 2001, and 2002 in 350 townships of Taiwan area. This study will be separated into two parts. First, we shall explore if there is spatial correlation among 350 townships of Taiwan area and detect if there are spatial clusters for higher fertility townships. The second part of this project will be focused on the spatial regression model. We will use this model to determine the factors that are highly correlated to the dropping of fertility rates. Key Words: Fertility Rates, Aging Population, Spatial Statistics, Spatial Clustering, Spatial Regression

Submitted by Paulo Junior (paulo.jr@fgv.br) on 2011-01-10T18:46:31Z No. of bitstreams: 1 DISSERTAÇÃO CARLA RODRIGUES ROCHA - ARQUIVO FINAL - TXT COMPLETO.pdf: 1736361 bytes, checksum: 4c523b99e17a0bbc56cb1718c168871d (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Paulo Junior(paulo.jr@fgv.br) on 2011-01-10T18:46:55Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 DISSERTAÇÃO CARLA RODRIGUES ROCHA - ARQUIVO FINAL - TXT COMPLETO.pdf: 1736361 bytes, checksum: 4c523b99e17a0bbc56cb1718c168871d (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2011-01-27T10:59:42Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 DISSERTAÇÃO CARLA RODRIGUES ROCHA - ARQUIVO FINAL - TXT COMPLETO.pdf: 1736361 bytes, checksum: 4c523b99e17a0bbc56cb1718c168871d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010-06-24 / This study aimed to understand the expectations of the servers of the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE) in relation to human resources policies, given the increased age of the population of the servers that institution. It took as its starting point the results of surveys of IBGE - Demographic Census and the National Household Sample Survey - that have demonstrated over the years the trend of increased life expectancy of the population. This trend is reflected in the increase of average age of workers within this institution. Also, consider the changing role of the Area of Human Resources over the years and its importance within the Brazilian public administration, as always had a prominent place in several administrative reforms implemented. Thus, based on three vectors: increased life expectancy of the Brazilian, human resources management and public administration in Brazil, identified as the IBGE and their servers have experienced the reality of a cadre of increasingly older. The interviews with the officers, analyzed by the method of content analysis revealed that the issue of aging, despite strong reflections within the institution, it is still not clearly highlighted within the human resource policies, which makes the servers fail to perceive HR policies focused on the aging of the table, being discouraged and disappointed about the topic and at the same time eager to clear and radical changes with respect to management of HR policies. / Este estudo teve como objetivo conhecer as expectativas dos servidores do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE) em relação às políticas de recursos humanos, dada a elevação da faixa etária da população dos servidores desta instituição. Tomou como ponto de partida os resultados das pesquisas do IBGE - Censo Demográfico e a Pesquisa Nacional de Domicilio - que vêm demonstrando ao longo dos anos a tendência de aumento da esperança de vida da população brasileira. Tendência essa que se reflete na elevação da faixa etária média dos trabalhadores dentro dessa instituição. E ainda, considerou a evolução do papel da Área de Recursos Humanos ao longo dos anos e a sua importância dentro da gestão pública brasileira, dado que sempre teve um lugar de destaque nas diversas reformas administrativas implementadas. Assim, baseado em três vetores: elevação da expectativa de vida do brasileiro, administração de recursos humanos e administração pública brasileira, identificou como o IBGE e seus servidores têm vivenciado a realidade de um quadro de trabalhadores cada vez mais velhos. As entrevistas realizadas com os servidores, analisadas a partir do método da Análise de Conteúdo, revelaram que a questão do envelhecimento, apesar de ter reflexos fortes dentro da instituição, ainda não é claramente destacada dentro das políticas de recursos humanos, o que faz com que os servidores não consigam perceber políticas de RH focadas no envelhecimento do quadro, mostrando-se desmotivados e decepcionados quanto ao tema e ao mesmo tempo ansiosos por mudanças claras e radicais no que tange a gestão das políticas de RH.

The issue of an aging population, pension systems and pension themselves, are currently very actual, interesting and socially topics discussed. In my diploma thesis on simulation models of pension insurance due to demographic development in the CR I used simulation experiments, including those based primarily on the Monte Carlo method, tackling issues and negatives surrounding pension insurance with state contribution, which, as one of the financial products market, is the second pillar of pension system in the Czech Republic. Pension scheme of pension insurekce with state contibution gives participants the advantages and benefits in the form of state subsidy, the possibility of reducing the income tax base on the part of the contributions paid, proceeds from fund management and the possibility of contributions from the employer. On the other hand, play an important role, weaknesses and shortcomings of this system. Again, the most important may be considered inseparateness fund's assets from an estate participants, inappropriately designed state contribution, the high average age of participants and relatively low rate of return on fund management. Negatives mentioned above were reflected in the simulation experiments, when the linear state contribution was designed and was considered for the new system of pension saving in combination with a linear state contribution, which appears to be a more appropriate and beneficial for both participants on the one hand, and the state (impact on public spendings) on the other.

The diploma thesis deals with the current trends of social services and assesses the impacts of reforms in Central Bohemia region. The goal of diploma thesis is the analysis of the effectiveness of the social services financing in Central Bohemia region and subsequent prognosis of development of the resident social services when an ageing of population is taken into account. In the theoretical part the thesis focuses on unsustainability of the concept of welfare state in the area of social services. Special attention is devoted to the multi-resources financing of social services and its ineffectiveness. Analytical part of the thesis confirms an ineffectiveness of the social services financing with the use of concrete cases of home of seniors in Central Bohemia region. During analysis the inspections of the social services and research among providers of the social services were used as a starting point. On the basis of this knowledge the strategic SWOT analysis which summes up the impacts of the reform in Central Bohemia region was carried out.

This thesis covers the development of pension schemes in the People's Republic of China from 1949 until now. The goal is to explain what is the structure of chinese pension schemes, why are the pension schemes divided between rural and urban areas and how are the migrant workers' pension schemes incorporated into the social security system. Furthermore the reforms and challenges of the current pension system are analysed as well as the linkage to the hukou reform and family planning reform.

In recent decades, the fact of an aging population has become one of the most discussed phenomena in all economically developed countries. Its main consequence is the increasing number of people relying on the assistance of another person. The goal of this thesis is to provide quantitative estimation and suggestions of the possible future need for social services for the elderly within the Czech Republic as such and also with the reference to the evolution of the situation in individual regions of the country. The introductory chapter deals with the demographic development of population in the Czech Republic and in all its regions individually, on the basis of which an obvious and steady trend of population aging is confirmed in the past and future years. The second chapter focuses on the characteristic of regional facilities in selected social services as well as on the costs and financing of such services. On the grounds of findings from the previous chapter, the final chapter is dedicated to the estimation of the future evolution of the care recipients in the senior age groups in all regions in the Czech Republic. All this consistently on the basis of the projection of the evolution of the population until the year 2050 and projections of the structure of the beneficiaries of care allowance by level of the dependence in the year 2010. The result of the analysis indicates that the existing capacity of social services for elderly will not be sufficient due to the trend of aging population. With regard to that fact, some possible measures, that could be a future source of a solution of this unfavorable situation, are suggested in the conclusion of this thesis.

The number of older Hispanic adults who experience divorce in late-life is growing. Nonetheless, both minority groups – Hispanics and older adults – are generally misrepresented and disadvantaged while their families disintegrate through divorce. The literature has failed to represent this population by publishing general research methodologies that cannot successfully and accurately describe their reality. Mental health professionals are exposed to contradicting and confusing views regarding their experience of divorce. This dissertation presents a qualitative case study based on the perspectives of 12 older Hispanic adults in Miami-Dade who experienced divorce in late-life. An analysis of the data revealed that older Hispanic adults perceive their divorce as a challenge and the best alternative to a dysfunctional relationship. They identify divorce as the only way to reach peace and happiness. Participation in a religious support group brings balance, healing, emotional insight, and gradual adjustment. The knowledge gained from this study contributes to existing literature regarding divorce adjustment, family therapy, multiculturalism, and qualitative studies. It allows researchers and readers to advocate for social change by involving older Hispanic adults who have been largely ignored so far. It also empowers this population group by allowing their stories to be told in their own words.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:48:40Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Patricia Silva Gomes.pdf: 1071079 bytes, checksum: e406874e42c8d301fb8ad4a1b18b2083 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-03-18 / Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico / The main objective of this research is to present and analyze the process of population aging in Brazil and its consequences on the labor market and public employment policies. It was adopted the literature, and used as sources of empirical data the statistics provided by the United Nations (UN), the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). First, it is concluded that in Brazil there are not specific labor public policies for the elderly. Although the guidelines for labor public policy (or employment) for the elderly in Brazil are set out in legal documents, outside the social security field, there is not government action aimed at changing the level of employment among older people, or actions that let his stay or return to the labor market. The labor public policies for older people can mitigate the negative effects of the considered population aging on the labor market, similar to what already occurs in OECD countries, and allow the permanence and rehabilitation of elderly in the Brazilian labor market. It also concludes that Brazil is experiencing the called demographic dividend (relative increase in the economically active population), i.e. the lowest dependency ratio. Therefore, this is the best time to implement the labor public policies suggested. Finally, the government and society must not allow this opportunity is missed / O objetivo principal deste trabalho é apresentar e analisar o processo de envelhecimento populacional no Brasil e as suas consequências no mercado de trabalho e nas políticas públicas de emprego. Neste trabalho foi adotada a pesquisa bibliográfica e usadas como fontes de dados empíricos as estatísticas disponibilizadas pela Organização das Nações Unidas (ONU), Organização para Cooperação e Desenvolvimento Econômico (OCDE) e Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE). Primeiramente, conclui-se que no Brasil não existem políticas públicas de emprego específicas para o público idoso. Embora as diretrizes para as políticas públicas de trabalho (ou emprego) para os idosos no Brasil sejam previstas nos documentos legais, fora do campo previdenciário, praticamente não há ação governamental com o objetivo de alterar o nível de emprego entre os idosos, ou ações que permitam sua permanência ou reinserção no mercado de trabalho. As políticas públicas de emprego para os idosos podem amenizar os efeitos considerados negativos do envelhecimento populacional sobre o mercado de trabalho, a exemplo do que já ocorre nos países da OCDE, e permitir a permanência e a reinserção dos idosos no mercado de trabalho brasileiro. Conclui-se também que o Brasil está vivenciando o denominado bônus demográfico (relativo aumento da população economicamente ativa), ou seja, a menor razão de dependência. Portanto, este é o melhor momento para implementar as políticas públicas de emprego. E, por fim, é necessário que o governo e a sociedade não permitam que esta oportunidade seja perdida

The purpose of this study was to examine formal volunteering among retirees in order to explore whether their volunteer experiences represent an extension of their career in the paid workforce or whether their volunteer activities represent a completely new direction, and how this influences their career self-concept, as interpreted through Donald Super’s life-span, life-space theory of career development. This study employed a developmental mixed-method design. In Phase 1, qualitative interviews were conducted with 12 participants to better understand retirees’ volunteer experiences. Phase 1 informed the design of an instrument for the Phase 2 survey which examined the issues among a larger sample of 214 retirees. The Phase 2 results supported the Phase 1 findings and indicated that many retirees sought an extension of career in volunteer activities in that they used similar skills and knowledge. Study participants also displayed a desire for lifelong learning. Retirees relinquished their paid-work career, took on the retiree and volunteer roles, and integrated these roles within their career self-concept to create a new sense of self. These results indicated that the retirees had entered a new stage of life, qualitatively different from ‘retirement’. To better reflect the experiences of these retirees, it was proposed that Donald Super’s life-span, life-space theory of career development be extended to include Redirection. This theorizing is consistent with the finding that retirees both wanted to and are able to integrate previous paid work elements as well as seek out lifelong learning opportunities within their volunteer activities. This study demonstrates that the volunteer role in the lives of retirees can lead to personal renewal and reshaping of the career self-concept, or what is labeled as the stage of Redirection. This study also has implications for volunteer management, retirement planning and social policy, and may be of interest to volunteer managers, nonprofit organizations, career counsellors, financial planners, retirement planning consultants, life coaches and policy planners.