I en tid av digitalisering återfinns betting, i högre utsträckning, online. Vilket leder till en mediering av aktiviteten samt en konvergens till andra nätverk och plattformar. Därmed är spelindustrin ett gott exempel för vilka utmaningar som tillkommer i en digital tidsålder och vilka krav som ställs på företagen för att kontrollera sina kunders konsumtion. Allra tydligast är omregleringen som tillkom 2019, ett nytt regelverk som spelbolag måste förhålla sig till. Syftet med den här uppsatsen är att undersöka hur betting har klivit in i ett digitalt landskap. Materialet har samlats in genom en kombinerad metodologi där vi har tagit fram en enkät för att avtäcka konsumenters relation till betting samt en intervju med en anställd inom spelbranschen. I ett nästa steg har vi tillämpat vårt teoretiska ramverk för att analysera materialet, detta består av fyra olika begrepp; gamblification, gamble-play media, gatekepping och digital disconnection. Med hjälp av begreppen har vi sedan analyserat material utifrån fyra medievetenskapliga synsätt för att besvara frågeställningarna som lyder:Hur framställs gamblification i spelbolagens arbetssätt? Hur drar konsumenterna fördel av gamble-play media? Hur kan man förstå network gatekeeping i förhållande till omregleringen? På vilket sätt kan digital disconnection hjälpa till att förstå spelmarknaden?  Resultatet visar bland annat att spelbolagen är medvetna om den eskalerande kontrollen av branschen vilket driver på nya strategier för att locka till sig konsumenters intresse. Samtidigt som det finns en farhåga hos spelbolagen att ett utvidgat regelverk kan få motsatt effekt och leda till att man tappar en stor del av människor till olicensierade spelmarknader. Dessutom ser vi att konsumenter anpassar sig längs med digitaliseringen av branschen och mediering av betting genom att utnyttja online forum för att hämta tips. Slutsatserna vi kan dra av resultatet är då att olika kontrollfunktioner som appliceras på branschen har en del likheter med network gatekeeping samt att samarbeten med andra marknader blir betydelsefulla för att legitimera och normalisera betting.

The betting market in the Czech Republic is currently moving 10 companies that year, which annually divided among themselves more like 15 billion. One of them is the Startip, young and still growing betting agency. Target of this masters thesis is helping the company Startip to increase its market share, increase the quality of their products and to propose a summary of improvements in accordance with the requirements and the proposals formulated by betters in research made in collection of 224 respondents.

Studien undersöker vilken modell som bäst modellerar matchutfallet (1,X,2 - Hemmavinst, Oavgjort, Bortavinst) på en fotbollsmatch utifrån matchstatistik. Datan som analyserats är sammanställd från den engelska fotbollens tre högsta divisioner från 2005 och framåt. Multinomial logistisk regression tillämpas för att modellera responsvariabeln utifrån förklaringsvariablerna. Med hjälp av best subset regression undersöks alla kombinationer av variabler och modellerna jämförs utifrån Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). Tillsammans med resultatet från regressionerna och en analys över multikollinearitet väljs den bästa modellen.  Resultatet visar på både väntade och oväntade effekter vilket skapar grund för framtida studier. Förbättringsområden för framtida studier innefattar fler förklaringsvariabler, jämförelser med spelbolagens odds och test på ny testdata. Tillämpningsområden för modellen är inom spelbranschen där modellen kan användas för att värdera kombinationsspel och liveodds. / This study aims to find the best model to predict the outcome of football (1,X,2 - Home Win, Draw, Away Win) games by looking at match data. The data used is put together from the three highest football divisions in England and go back to the year 2005. Multinomial logistic regression is used to model the response variable from the regressors. A best subset regression is used to find the models with the lowest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). By doing a multicollinearity analysis these models are further examined and the best one is chosen.  The results show both expected and unexpected effects that create foundation for future studies. Areas for model improvement include more variables, comparison with the bookmaker’s odds and tests on new test data. The application of the model is in sports betting where it can be used to value multi bets and live odds.

In this work, we propose a regressional framework, built on the work ”Deep Order Flow Imbalance: Extracting Alpha at Multiple Horizons from the Limit Order Book” by Kolm, et al. (2023), for predicting short term returns of odds on binary betting exchange markets. Using the framework, we apply five different deep learning models that leverage order book data from tennis betting exchanges during the calendar month of July 2023 with the purpose of examining the predictive capabilities of deep learning models in this setting. We train each model on either raw limit order book states or order flow. The models predict the returns of the best available odds returns on five different short term time horizons on the four order book sides, back and lay for each of the two players in a given tennis match. Applying windowing, for each vector prediction we use the 100 latest market messages consisting of 81 features (odds and volumes per the ten first levels in the order book and time delta between market messages) in the case of the raw limit order book state and 41 features (order book flow per the ten first levels in the order book and time delta between market messages) in the case of the order book flow. All code is written in Python and run on Google Colab, leveraging cloud computing, off-the-shelf models and popular libraries, TensorFlow and Keras, for data processing and pipelining, model implementation, training and testing. The models are evaluated relative to a benchmark in the form of a naive predictor based on the average odds returns on the training set. The models do not converge towards an optimal parameter composition duringtraining, indicating low predictive capabilities of the input data. Despite this, we generally find all models to outperform the benchmark on the lay order book sides and while some perform better than others, we see similar relative performance distributions within each model across horizon-order book side combinations. To enhance discussion and suggest the direction of future research we examine relationships between key game characteristics such asthe variation of odds returns and the accuracy of predictions on a given market.

published_or_final_version / Architecture / Master / Master of Architecture

The Master´s thesis proves the possibility of effective investment in the betting market. The operating mechanisms of the betting market are firmly disavowed from any forms of the hazard and approximated towards the principles of the financial market. The output of investment activity is captured by financial plan.

Under det senaste decenniet har informationsteknologin utvecklats explosionartat. Införandet av smartphones och surfplattor som alltid är anslutna till Internet har förändrat vårt sätt att "konsumera" den. Allt detta ledde till digitaliseringen av betting tjänster och flytten till Internet. I deras tidiga dagar hade online betting tjänster ett lätt jobb att göra när det gällde positionering, de behövde bara finns på Internet och det var det som lockade kunder. Men tiderna har förändrats och online betting tjänster står inför nya utmaningar. De måste hitta en tydlig positionering och ha en konkurrensfördel gentemot sina konkurrenter, men det är inte en lätt uppgift. Därför koncentrerade sig denna studie på en utredning av positioneringen för dessa tjänster. Fallstudietillvägagångssätt valdes för detta examensarbete och det undersökta företaget var Betsson Group, som är ett av de större företagen med många varumärken i sin portfölj. Forskningen är begränsad till deras tre mest populära varumärken: Betsson, Betsafe och NordicBet med undantag för text mining där Bet365 (en konkurrent) också analyserades. Empirisk data som samlades in under denna studie kom från intervjuer på fallstudieföretaget,frågeformulär besvarat av kunder och genom text mining av online betting tjänsters omdömen. Studien resulterade i att hitta gapet mellan positioneringen av företaget, kunderna och online recensenterna. Kundernas vy och recensenters vy överrensstämmer ganska bra, men  öretagets uppfattning är helt avvikand. När kunderna väljer online betting tjänst bryr de sig mest om bästa odds, bonusar och mängden av betts, där å andra sidan företag placerar sig på ett statiskt sätt med målgrupper: folklig, nerdy och lyxig. Kunderna tenderar att inte bry sig om varumärkespositioneringen och driver företag in i ett priskrig, men samtidigt måste de känna igen varumärket för att lita på det med sina pengar. Studien bidrar till att förstå kunders vy när de väljer en online betting tjänst och denna  spekt kan generaliseras för hela online bettingindustrin. Dessutom kan en del av teorierna appliceras på andra online tjänster där bästa pris söks. / During the last decade, IT had a big burst. The introduction of smartphones and tablets that are always connected to the Internet changed our way of “consuming” it. All that lead to digitalization of betting services and moving them to the Internet. In their early days online betting services had an easy job to do regarding positioning, they only needed to exist on the Internet and that attracted customers. But, times have changed and online betting services face new challenges. They must find a clear positioning and have a competitive advantage over their competitors, but that is not an easy task to do. Therefore, this study concentrated on the investigation of the positioning for these services. Case study approach was chosen for this thesis and the investigated company was Betsson Group, which is one of the bigger companies with many brands in their portfolio. However, the research was delimited to their three most popular brands: Betsson, Betsafe and NordicBet with exception to text mining where Bet365 (a competitor) were also analyzed. Empirical data gather during this study came from interviews at the case company, questionnaire with customers and through text mining of online betting services reviews. The study resulted in finding the gap, in positioning, between the company, the customers and the online reviewers. Customers view and reviewers view align quite well, however company view is completely unaligned. When choosing an online betting service, customers mostly care about best odds, bonuses and variety of bets, where on the other hand companies position themselves in a static way with targets group of folksy, nerdy and luxurious. Customers tend to not care about the brand positioning, and push companies into a price war, however, they need to know the brand in order to trust it with their money. The study contributes to understanding the customers view when they choose an online betting service and this aspect can be generalized for the online betting industry as a whole. Moreover, some of the theories can be applied to other online services where best price is searched for.

[pt] Este trabalho analisa a eficácia da estratégia do fator Betting Against Beta (BAB), estabelecido por Frazzini e Pedersen (2014), aplicado no mercado de ações brasileiro. Os resultados indicam alfa significativo e persistente para BAB no Brasil mesmo quando controlado para demais fatores de risco conhecidos. O desempenho do fator BAB foi analisado sob a especificação original e permaneceu robusto à variações do parâmetro de suavização e janelas de estimação dos betas ex-ante. Adicionalmente, verificou-se a relevância da inclinação da curva de juros spot do Brasil e condições de liquidez do mercado como previsores do desempenho de BAB. Os resultados indicam elevada significância da inclinação de juros e da liquidez do mercado na performance contemporânea do fator BAB. / [en] This paper analyzes the effectiveness of the Betting Against Beta (BAB) factor strategy, established by Frazzini and Pedersen (2014), applied to the Brazilian stock market. The results points to significant and persistent alpha for BAB in Brazil even when controlled for other well-known risk factors. BAB factor performance was analyzed under the original model specification and remained robust to changes of the beta smoothing parameter and different ex-ante betas estimation windows. Additionally, we analyze the relevance of the Brazil s yield curve slope and stock market liquidity conditions as predictors of BAB performance. The results points to high significance level of the yield curve slope and market liquidity as explanations for contemporary performance of the BAB factor.

The use of statistical analysis has been prevalent in the sports gambling industry for years. More recently, we have seen the emergence of "adjusted statistics", a more sophisticated way to examine each play and each result (further explanation below). And while adjusted statistics have become commonplace for professional and recreational bettors alike, little research has been done to justify their use. In this paper the effectiveness of this data is tested on the most heavily wagered sport in the world – the National Football League (NFL). The results are studied with two central questions in mind: Does the market account for the information provided by adjusted statistics? And, can this data be interpreted to create a profitable betting strategy? First, the Efficient Market Hypothesis is introduced and tested using these new variables. Then, a betting model is built and tested.

The thesis is concerned with an issue of operation of lotteries from the perspec- tive of financial law in the Czech Republic. The aim is to provide an analysis of current legislation and to put forward adequate solutions de lege ferenda. Apart from an introductory chapter and a conclusion, the thesis consists of five chapters. The first one describes the term "betting games" and distinguishes it from the terms "games" (in general) and "lotteries and other like games". The first chapter is also devoted to "game law" meaning a comprehensive set of legal provisions related to the issue. The second chapter sets the betting games into the scope of private law. It focus- es on particular eras of the civil legislation in historical context of the current Czech Republic, from 1811 to 2013. That part of the thesis looks at the current civil legisla- tion, which is stated in the act No. 89/2012 Coll., the Civil Code, and which came into force as of January 1, 2014. Next chapter critically evaluates a legal regulation of operation of betting games, which is grounded in public law. That legislation provides regulatory bases of running objective business. The legislation is mainly made by the act No. 202/1990 Coll., on lotteries and other like games, as amended. The act infringes the European law. Nev-...