This study aimed to compare the accuracy of machine learning models with the probabilities generatedby sports betting companies in predicting the outcome of football matches. The study also investigatedthe impact of different feature combinations on the performance of machine learning models for predicting football match outcomes. The study used data from various sources of the Swedish football leaguebetween the seasons 2018-2022. The comparison between the model’s predictions and the probabilitiesgenerated by sports betting companies showed that the model’s predictions were more accurate. SupportVector Machines(SVM) performed the best with an accuracy of 52.4 percent compared to the bettingcompanies at 40.4 percent. The results also showed that different feature combinations can have a significant impact on the performance of machine learning models for predicting football match outcomes butthe importance of features varied depending on the selection method used. The study used four different feature selection approaches: filter methods, Lasso, Ridge, and PCA, to identify the most importantfeatures for prediction. Overall, the results of this study suggest that machine learning models can outperform sports bettingcompanies in predicting football match outcomes and that the choice of feature combination can have asignificant impact on model performance. Further research is needed to explore these findings in moredetail and to investigate the usefulness of different feature selection techniques at different points in theseason.

In 2018, the United States Supreme Court overturned PASPA, a law which had previously deemed sports betting illegal. Following this ruling, states have already or have begun passing legislation which legalizes sport betting. As legalization continues to sweep the nation, an untapped domain of research has emerged. From a sport management perspective, there is a new, highly lucrative sport industry with which there is minimal research. The main purpose of this research project is to examine how bet presentation influences consumer behavior related to sports gambling. Specifically, the role that bet format presentation has on consumers’ willingness to bet and the amount they are willing to bet. Additionally, the potentially mediating effects of numeracy and team identification were examined. Participants (N=703) were recruited from the United States, United Kingdom, and Australia, as these locations natively use different forms of bet presentation (American, fractional, and decimal). This study utilized a Latin square experimental design that examined whether participants were willing to bet more money when shown American odds first compared to fractional odds first. Further, evidence was provided demonstrating the positive mediating influence of team identification, and the influence of subjective numeracy. Practically, the results from this study can inform sports betting organizations, sports betting consumers, as well as government and industry regulators. Theoretically, knowledge is contributed to the domains of sport management, behavioral pricing, and appraisal theory literature. / Tourism and Sport

Since the U.S. Supreme Court lifted the federal ban on sports gambling, the popularity of sports gambling continues to increase. This has left the sport industry, including academics, interested in examining the drivers of sports gambling participation and their influence on consumers’ betting behavior. This dissertation includes three essays considering motivations to engage in sports gambling. While all focus on sports gambling, each of these three standalone essays embrace a different focus to explore sports gambling motivations and betting behavior. First, Essay One explores the differences in motivation and perception of skill versus luck between daily fantasy sports (DFS) and sports betting participants. Next, Essay Two investigates the interplay between motivations and game characteristics on betting intentions. Finally, Essay Three explores the effects of different marketing promotions and their fit with consumers’ regulatory focus on consumers’ betting behavior. Collectively, this research will provide insights and understandings of different drivers of sports gambling and their influence on consumer behavior regarding sports gambling. / Tourism and Sport

The present study’s main purpose is to find out if there’s a noticeable pattern between young mens exposure to gambling advertising. Why this study only focused on young men is because the researchers in the study are in the same life situation and they also share the same age. Why women weren't included in the present study is because there are some great differences between the two genders that further research would be necessary. This also because the researchers as previously mentioned are in the same age range and life situation according to studying at university and share similar interests, such as sports and online gambling. What this study has included is the data from interviews that involved six different respondents that answered various questions that were sorted into different themes that were analyzed in the discussion together with the chosen theory. In the result we could find some light generalizations associated with the respondents answers in the data, which created some forms of patterns between the impact that online gambling commercials cause. To make the study even more credible the study would’ve needed more respondents to interview, so that more answers could be compared and analyzed against each other. Another improvement that should've been added to the present study is quantitative data, which would be an online survey which would've been sent to more students in the same age range to find out if more people were affected by the lures that gambling commercials try to solicit you with. In conclusion this study can conclude that young male adults indeed are affected by the gambling commercials that surround them constantly. But to achieve a more valid result and discussion in this study it would've needed some improvements in form of more respondents and a greater range of information on the psychological factors amongst young people, associated with gambling commercials in daily use.

This paper presents a study on predicting football match outcomes using various machine learning models, aiming to outperform traditional bookmakers. The primary objectives were to develop predictive models, identify key factors influencing match results, and assess the potential monetary value of the models. The study utilized an ANOVA test for feature selection, revealing that differences in team quality metrics, such as Elo ratings and FIFA player ratings, are among the most significant predictors. Despite achieving competitive accuracy, with Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) reaching 68.8 %, the models generally underperformed compared to bookmakers' odds, which also achieved 68.8 % accuracy. Betting strategies were tested over 109 matches, where the probability betting strategy yielded profits for all models, with LDA achieving a 21.5 % profit, slightly surpassing the bookmakers' strategy. However, the expected value betting strategy resulted in losses, indicating a challenge in predicting non-favorite outcomes. The findings suggest that while the machine learning models developed in this project show promise in predicting match results, they require further refinement to consistently outperform traditional bookmakers, especially in identifying valuable betting opportunities.

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to map how Swedish gaming companies and their gaming companies work to be competitive in a market characterized by high competition, and which are also facing a change in law. Method: This study has been based on a qualitative approach in the form of four interviews, two of which have been semi-structured personal interviews and two mail interviews. Theoretical Reference Framework: The theories used in this study are pull and push strategies, brand equity, the STP process, corporate acquisitions - strategy and celebrities and fictitious characters in brands. Conclusions: The conclusion is that the gaming companies are trying to strengthen their brands using mostly similar strategies, in order to be able to take market shares, customers and increase their own competitiveness in this changing and competitive market. / Syfte: Syftet med denna studie är att kartlägga hur svenska spelbolagskoncerner och deras spelbolag, jobbar för att vara konkurrenskraftiga på en marknad präglad av hög konkurrens, och som även står inför en lagändring. Metod: Denna studie har utgått från en kvalitativ ansats i form av fyra intervjuer, där två av dem har varit semistrukturerade personliga intervjuer och två mailintervjuer. Teoretisk referensram: De teorier som använts i denna studie är pull och push - strategierna, brand equity, STP - processen, företagsförvärv - strategi och kändisar och fiktiva karaktärer i varumärken. Slutsatser: Slutsatsen är att spelbolagen försöker stärka sina varumärken med hjälp av mestadels liknande strategier, för att kunna ta marknadsandelar, kunder och öka sin egen konkurrenskraft på denna föränderliga och konkurrenskraftiga marknad.

Les jeux de hasard furent connus et pratiqués par l’homme depuis les premières civilisations. Mais dès l’Antiquité gréco-romaine, ces jeux se sont attirés les foudres des moralistes, ecclésiastiques, et législateurs, chacun pour ses propres motifs. Des lois sévères furent édictées par les législateurs de l’Antiquité, qui furent par la suite reprises par les canonistes et les juristes de l’Ancien droit, ainsi que par les rédacteurs du Code civil, et ce, dans le but d’éradiquer, ou du moins de cantonner cette pratique ludique. Mais le désir humain de pratiquer ces jeux de hasard fut plus fort que ces lois, et la pratique y a survécu. Au cours du XXe siècle, et alors que certains États de par le monde ont choisi la prohibition absolue, d’autres, comme la France, ont opté pour une autorisation contrôlée sous l’égide de l’État. Ainsi fut créé le triptyque prohibition-exception-monopole, sous lequel le jeu se développa considérablement. Et quand le développement technologique a permis d’offrir les jeux de hasard à travers l’internet, le secteur des jeux d’argent a atteint en France, et de par le monde, des limites jamais connues auparavant au cours de l’histoire. Mais ce développement exceptionnel a amené avec lui des défis nouveaux, notamment au plan financier et sécuritaire, mais aussi au plan européen où le modèle français monopolistique fut critiqué. Pour faire face à ces défis, de nouvelles lois furent promulguées au cours des récentes années. Mais toutes furent en deçà de l’ampleur des défis. La tâche est entamée, mais le gros du travail reste à accomplir. / Games of chance were known and practiced by man since the earliest civilizations. But all the way since the greco-roman antiquity, these games have attracted the ire of moralists, clergymen and legislators, each for their own motives. Strict laws were enacted by the Antiquity legislators, laws that were later upheld by canonists and jurists of the Old law, as well as the civil Code editors, in order to eliminate, or at least confine this recreational practice. But the human desire to enjoy these games of chance was stronger than these laws, and the practice survived. Over the course of the 20th century, and while certain States around the world chose absolute prohibition, others, like France, opted for a controlled authorization under the auspices of the State. Thus was created the prohibition-monopoly-exception triptych, under which gambling grew considerably. And when the technological development allowed games of chance to be provided through the internet, the gambling industry reached in France and around the world, limits never known before in the course of the human history. But this exceptional development has brought new challenges along, mainly in the finance and security areas, but also at the European legal level where the French monopoly model was criticized. To take up these challenges, new laws were enacted in recent years. But all fell short of the challenges scale. The task was initiated, but most of the work remains to be done.

The premise of this report is to delve into sports betting and whether favourable opportunities can be found, more specifically focusing on over and under odds for number of goals scored in football games of the Premier League. Using historical data from football matches several models are developed, the characteristics of goals warranting the use of probability based Poisson and Negative Binomial models, as well as Bayesian Poisson regression for goal predictions. Once these models were developed odds was found and compared to bookmakers, the results indicated that all models, to varying degrees, find favourable opportunities and profitable betting strategies can be identified. This suggests that bookmakers do not always price betting products according to their true probabilities likely due to book balancing and informational asymmetries. Furthermore it indicates that there is a presence of inefficiencies in the sports betting market. / Den här rapporten kommer djupdyka i betting och huruvida gynnsamma möjligheter kan hittas. Mer specifikt kommer ett fokus ligga på över/under odds för antalet mål i fotbollsmatcher i engelska Premier League. Genom att använda historisk data från fotbollsmatcher utvecklas flera olika statistiska modeller för att förutspå antalet mål i fotbollsmatcher. Skattning av Poisson och Negativ Binomial fördelningar samt utvecklandet av en Bayesiansk Poisson regressionsmodell motiveras av egenskaperna hos antalet mål i fotbollsmatcher. Med dessa modeller, beräknas odds för flera framtida matcher inom Premier League och dessa jämfördes med odds som ges av bettingbolag. Resultaten indikerar att alla modeller kan, i olika stor utsträckning, hitta gynnsamma möjligheter och lönsamma betting strategier kan identifieras. Detta tyder på att bettingbolag inte alltid sätter sina odds enbart baserat på den faktiska sannolikheten, vilket troligtvis beror på att bolagen balanserar sina böcker samt informationsasymmetrier. Dessutom indikerar resultatet på att det finns faktorer på bettingmarknaden som gör marknaden ineffektiv.

Cette thèse a pour but de présenter le marché des paris sportifs plus précisément de montrer en quoi ce dernier constitue un cadre d'observations simplifié suffisamment proche des marchés boursiers pour tester la théorie de l'efficience informationnelle et aboutir à des conclusions unanimes concernant sa validité empirique. En premier lieu, nous concentrons notre attention sur la forme faible de l'efficience informationnelle et plus précisément sur une anomalie connue sous le nom du Favourite Longshot Bias, qui a été recensée aussi bien dans le cadre des paris sportifs que celui des marchés boursiers. A l'aide d’un vaste échantillon de données, nous démontrons que les coûts de transaction et les préférences des parieurs ont un impact significatif sur le niveau des cotes proposées par les bookmakers et donc sur la structure des prix. Par ailleurs, nous discutons de la rationalité des parieurs et nous montrons en quoi le comportement des parieurs n’est pas si différent de celui des investisseurs sur les marchés boursiers. En second lieu, nous analysons en détails la forme forte de l'efficience informationnelle et plus précisément la pertinence de la fourchette en tant qu'indicateur de délits d'initiés dans le cadre des paris sportifs. / The aim of this thesis is to introduce the sports betting market, and more precisely to show how this market forms a simplified framework for observations, close enough to stock markets to test the informational efficiency theory, and lead to unanimous conclusions about its empirical validity. Firstly, we focus on the weak form of informational efficiency and more particularly on an anomaly known as the Favourite Longshot Bias, which was listed in sports betting markets, as well as in stock markets. Thanks to a vast data sample, we prove that transaction costs and bettors’ preferences have a significant impact on odds fixed by bookmakers, and consequently on prices’ structure. Moreover, we also discuss bettors’ rationality and we show how bettors’ behaviour is not so different from that of investors in the stock markets. Secondly, we provide a detailed analysis of the strong form of informational efficiency and more precisely of the spread as an indicator of insider trading in the sports betting market.

Title: Customers typology of Czech betting companies. Objectives: The main objective of this research is to create a typology of curent customers typology of Czech betting companies. Methods: In order to obtain the results, marketing quantitative research was conducted in the form of both electronic and personal questioning. The basic set was all bettors in the Czech Republic and the sample was composed of 210 respondents. They were represented by customers who bet online through the computer and through the application, as well as those from physical bookmakers. The field ran for two weeks. Results: The results of the research are presented in the analytical part of this work. They are a source of hypothesis validation and, for the synthetic part, in which, by means of mathematical-descriptive methods, the bookmakers were divided into three types, briefly named as Computers, Applications and Offices. Keywords: Typology, customer, segmentace, betting companies, bets, lottery, marketing, marketing research