[pt] Nesta de tese de doutorado é proposta uma metodologia alternativa para obter estratégias ótimas de oferta sob incerteza que maximizam o lucro de um agente em mercados dotados de um leilão de preço uniforme e envelope fechado com multiplos produtos divisíveis. A estratégia ótima de um agente price maker depende amplamente da informação conhecida dos agentes rivais. Reconhecendo que a oferta dos agentes rivais pode desviar do equilíbrio de mercado e é de difícil caracterização probabilística, nós propomos um modelo de otimização robusta dois estágios com restrições de equilíbrio para obter estratégias de oferta ótimas avessas a risco. O modelo proposto é um modelo de otimização de três níveis passível de ser reescrito como uma instância particular de um programa binível com restrições de equilíbrio. Um conjunto de procedimentos é proposto a fim de construir uma formulação equivalente de de nível único adequado para aplicação de algoritmos de Geração de Coluna e Restrição (GCC). Diferentemente de trabalhos publicados anteriormente em modelos de otimização dois estágios, nossa metodologia de solução não aplica o método de GCC para iterativamente identificar os cenários mais violados dos fatores de incerteza, variáveis que são identificadas através de variáveis contínuas. Na metodologia de solução proposta, o algoritmo GCC é aplicado para identificar um pequeno subconjunto de condições de otimalidade para o modelo de terceiro nível capaz de representar as restrições de equilíbrio do leilão na solução ótima do problema master (problema de oferta). Um estudo de caso numérico baseado em mercados de energia de curto prazo é apresentado para ilustrar a aplicabilidade do modelo robusto proposto. Resultados indicam que mesmo em um caso em que é observada uma imprecisão de 1 porcento na oferta de equilíbrio de Nash dos agentes rivais, a solução robusta provê uma redução significativa de risco em uma análise fora da amostra. / [en] We propose an alternative methodology to devise profit-maximizing strategic bids under uncertainty in markets endowed with a sealed-bid uniformprice auction with multiple divisible products. The optimal strategic bid of a price maker agent largely depends on the knowledge (information) of the rivals bidding strategy. By recognizing that the bid of rival competitors may deviate from the equilibrium and are of difficult probabilistic characterization, we proposed a two-stage robust optimization model with equilibrium constraints to devise an risk-averse strategic bid in the auction. The proposed model is a trilevel optimization problem that can be recast as a particular instance of a bilevel program with equilibrium constraints. Reformulation procedures are proposed to construct a single-level-equivalent formulation suitable for column and constraint generation (CCG) algorithm. Differently from previously reported works on two-stage robust optimization, our solution methodology does not employ the CCG algorithm to iteratively identify violated scenarios for the uncertain factors, which in this thesis are obtained through continuous variables. In the proposed solution methodology, the CCG is applied to identify a small subset of optimality conditions for the third-level model capable of representing the auction equilibrium constraints at the optimum solution of the master (bidding) problem. A numerical case study based on short-term electricity markets is presented to illustrate the applicability of the proposed robust model. Results show that even for the case where an impression of 1 percent on the rivals offer at the Nash equilibrium is observed, the robust solution provides a non-negligible risk reduction in out-of-sample analysis.

臺灣對於韓國法令規定都很陌生，且關於韓國之法律專題論文甚少，故透過本文將韓國政府採購制度及相關法令規定，建構出基礎架構，以利日後有志於韓國法律研究者之參考。本文重點在於韓國政府採購制度之介紹，並深入研究臺、韓二國之政府採購廠商停權制度之異同比較，最後並嘗試對我國停權制度之問題提出修法建議。

Submitted by Evandro Baradel (ebaradel@usp.br) on 2012-02-02T19:35:05Z No. of bitstreams: 1 DissertaçãoFGV-EvandroMeiraBaradel.pdf: 3505315 bytes, checksum: 52f701783e460955785428d0e9df64ab (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Suzinei Teles Garcia Garcia (suzinei.garcia@fgv.br) on 2012-02-02T19:57:26Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 DissertaçãoFGV-EvandroMeiraBaradel.pdf: 3505315 bytes, checksum: 52f701783e460955785428d0e9df64ab (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2012-02-03T10:31:14Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 DissertaçãoFGV-EvandroMeiraBaradel.pdf: 3505315 bytes, checksum: 52f701783e460955785428d0e9df64ab (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-12-21 / This dissertation shows that the bidding issue can be used as a regional development public policy instrument. The biddings in the state of São Paulo are based on a public policy that requires procedures of territorial decentralization. The decree that regulates this policy is focused mainly on giving a favored and simplified treatment to micro and small businesses. On the issue of decentralization the São Paulo government presents innovation in relation to federal legislation dealing with the subject. The decentralization phenomenon can contribute to increase the amount of winning companies that belong to particular region where the biddings producing 'regional economic growth'. However, here we adopt the hypothesis that this differential has not been effective. To verify it, we conducted a case study focused on two units of the University of São Paulo, both located in countryside. Analyzed the presence and electronic (reverse auctions) bidding procedures. The comparative analysis was still supplemented by a questionnaire given to civil servants of the procurement area of various units of this University. The result obtained in this paper shows that the effect of promoting regional development has not been achieved in both cases studied. It concludes that we must go a long way in the discussion about the use of governmental purchasing power as a potential inducer of regional development, which invariably suffers from legal changes. It’s also necessary to adopt complementary public policies. / Esta dissertação aborda a questão das licitações e como elas podem ser usadas como instrumento de política pública de desenvolvimento regional. As licitações do estado de São Paulo são orientadas sob uma política pública que exige procedimentos licitatórios que considerem a descentralização territorial. O decreto que regulamenta tal política tem como principal enfoque o tratamento simplificado e favorecido a micro e pequenas empresas, sendo que o aspecto da descentralização inova em relação à legislação federal que aborda o assunto. O fenômeno descentralizador pode contribuir para o aumento da quantidade de empresas vencedoras pertencentes a uma determinada região na qual ocorrem às licitações, podendo desta forma produzir 'crescimento econômico regional'. Contudo, adota-se aqui a hipótese de que esse diferencial não tem surtido efeito. Para verificar tal hipótese, realizou-se um estudo de caso centrado em duas unidades da Universidade de São Paulo, ambas localizadas no interior do estado. Foram analisadas as licitações realizadas de maneira presencial e eletrônica (pregões). A análise comparativa ainda foi complementada por um questionário submetido aos servidores da área de licitação das diversas unidades desta Universidade. O resultado obtido neste trabalho indica que o efeito de promoção do desenvolvimento regional não ocorreu em ambos os casos estudados. Conclui-se, ainda, que é preciso avançar muito na discussão acerca da utilização do poder de compra do Estado como potencial indutor de desenvolvimento regional. Esta atuação estatal invariavelmente deverá sofrer mudanças legais, sendo necessária, também, a adoção de outras políticas públicas complementares.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-08-17T14:53:21Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Sergio Augusto.pdf: 2350058 bytes, checksum: 7c3c67925b0b27a77105c3cb0799c4e6 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-05-04 / Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico / This work provides a framework to obtain the optimal bidding strategy for a GENCO in long-term electricity auction. The tool is based on intelligent techniques for optimizing the proposed Utility Function. The goal is to find the optimal strategy that maximizes the expected payoff of GENCO and simultaneously minimize the risks. The risks are modeled by two classical metrics: the Variance (Portfolio Theory) and Value at Risk (VaR). The proposed methodology is applied to auctions for long-term forward contracts, such that used in the Brazilian power system for buying and selling energy in the regulated market. The Bidding Strategy is formed through a Supply Curve which relates the optimal amount of energy to different offer prices. Thus, it allows the GENCO define the best bid (offer) for a given offer price. The proposed approach is validated for three test cases: First, concerning the variation of generation and price of energy scenarios for evaluation of the bidding strategy and the GENCOS risk perception; The second, consider a cascade hydro-term system for evaluation of MRE; and The third, considers the northeastern Brazilian subsystem where the supply curve is formed for the CHESF company's power plants portfolio. The results show how the offer may be changed according the variation of the spot prices and physical generation and demonstrate the efficacy of meta-heuristics proposed to optimize the supply model. / Este trabalho apresenta uma ferramenta de auxílio e suporte à tomada de decisões na formação de estratégias de oferta para agentes geradores (GENCOS) participantes de leilões de eletricidade de longo-prazo. A ferramenta é baseada em técnicas inteligentes para a otimização da Função de Utilidade proposta média-risco . O objetivo é encontrar a Estratégia Ótima que maximize o retorno esperado da GENCO e, simultaneamente, minimize os riscos relacionados às incertezas no montante de energia produzida e no preço spot, modelados por duas métricas clássicas de risco: a Variância (teoria dos portfólios) e o Valor em Risco (VaR). A abordagem proposta é aplicada ao mercado brasileiro de eletricidade, especificamente, ao ambiente de Leilões de Energia Existente na categoria Quantidade de Energia, tais quais os leilões aplicados pelo órgão regulador brasileiro para compra e venda de energia no mercado regulado. Sugere-se aqui a formação de uma Curva de Oferta que relacione a quantidade de energia ótima para diferentes preços de oferta. E, deste modo, permita a GENCO definir qual o melhor lance (oferta) para dado preço de oferta durante o processo do leilão. Para a avaliação da abordagem foram utilizados três casos testes: O primeiro considera cenários de geração física e preço de energia a fim de avaliar a estratégia de oferta e a percepção ao risco de contratação da GENCO quanto à variação de tais cenários; o segundo, considera um sistema em cascata onde é possível observar o efeito do Mecanismo de Realocação de Energia (MRE) sobre a oferta das GENCOS; e o terceiro considera o subsistema nordeste brasileiro onde a curva de oferta é formada para o portfólio de usinas pertencentes à empresa CHESF. Os resultados demonstram como a oferta de energia pode ser alterada de acordo com cenários de oferta gerados e comprovam a eficiência da meta-heurística proposta para otimização do modelo de oferta.

The diploma thesis is focused on the area of Internet media, namely the monetization of advertising, which Internet provides through the programmatic purchase of an internet advertisements that are focused on Real Time Bidding (RTB). The theoretical part deals with a brief analysis of the US media landscape, especially the phenomenon of the programmatic way of buying online advertisements in connection with technological development and optimization strategies in the Internet environment. It represents the emergence of the programmatic purchase, deals with the various forms of online advertising and its development. There is an introduction to two different online media strategies of banking institutions, which are further explored within the exploratory comparative technique - experiment in the practical part. This section focuses on changing technical settings, along with changing ad buying when changing key settings as a part of the ad serving campaign. The aim of the diploma thesis is to introduce the possibilities offered by programmatic advertising within online media in the Czech Republic. It summarizes knowledge in the context of the development of electronic advertising in the application of the two online media strategies of the banking institution.

<div><div><div><p>The process of acquiring the large-scale complex systems is usually characterized with cost and schedule overruns. To investigate the causes of this problem, we may view the acquisition of a complex system in several different time scales. At finer time scales, one may study different stages of the acquisition process from the intricate details of the entire systems engineering process to communication between design teams to how individual designers solve problems. At the largest time scale one may consider the acquisition process as series of actions which are, request for bids, bidding and auctioning, contracting, and finally building and deploying the system, without resolving the fine details that occur within each step. In this work, we study the acquisition processes in multiple scales. First, we develop a game-theoretic model for engineering of the systems in the building and deploying stage. We model the interactions among the systems and subsystem engineers as a principal-agent problem. We develop a one-shot shallow systems engineering process and obtain the optimum transfer functions that best incentivize the subsystem engineers to maximize the expected system-level utility. The core of the principal-agent model is the quality function which maps the effort of the agent to the performance (quality) of the system. Therefore, we build the stochastic quality function by modeling the design process as a sequential decision-making problem. Second, we develop and evaluate a model of the acquisition process that accounts for the strategic behavior of different parties. We cast our model in terms of government-funded projects and assume the following steps. First, the government publishes a request for bids. Then, private firms offer their proposals in a bidding process and the winner bidder enters in a con- tract with the government. The contract describes the system requirements and the corresponding monetary transfers for meeting them. The winner firm devotes effort to deliver a system that fulfills the requirements. This can be assumed as a game that the government plays with the bidder firms. We study how different parameters in the acquisition procedure affect the bidders’ behaviors and therefore, the utility of the government. Using reinforcement learning, we seek to learn the optimal policies of involved actors in this game. In particular, we study how the requirements, contract types such as cost-plus and incentive-based contracts, number of bidders, problem complexity, etc., affect the acquisition procedure. Furthermore, we study the bidding strategy of the private firms and how the contract types affect their strategic behavior.</p></div></div></div>

The diploma thesis is focused on the area of Internet media, namely the monetization of advertising, which Internet provides through the programmatic purchase of an internet advertisements that are focused on Real Time Bidding (RTB). The theoretical part deals with a brief analysis of the US media landscape, especially the phenomenon of the programmatic way of buying online advertisements in connection with technological development and optimization strategies in the Internet environment. It represents the emergence of the programmatic purchase, deals with the various forms of online advertising and its development. There is an introduction to two different online media strategies of banking institutions, which are further explored within the exploratory comparative technique - experiment in the practical part. This section focuses on changing technical settings, along with changing ad buying when changing key settings as a part of the ad serving campaign. The aim of the diploma thesis is to introduce the possibilities offered by programmatic advertising within online media in the Czech Republic. It summarizes knowledge in the context of the development of electronic advertising in the application of the two online media strategies of the banking institution.

Public procurement amounts to a significant part of Sweden's GDP. Nevertheless, it is an overlooked sector characterized by low digitization and inefficient competition where bids are not submitted based on proper mathematical tools. This Thesis seeks to create a structured approach to bidding in cleaning services by determining factors affecting the participation and pricing decision of potential buyers. Furthermore, we assess price prediction by comparing multiple linear regression models (MLR) to support vector regression (SVR). In line with previous research in the construction sector, we find significance for several factors such as project duration, location and type of contract on the participation decision in the cleaning sector. One notable deviant is that we do not find contract size to have an impact on the pricing decision. Surprisingly, the performance of MLR are comparable to more advanced SVR models. Stochastic dominance tests on price performance concludes that experienced bidders perform better than their inexperienced counterparts and companies place more competitive bids in lowest price tenders compared to economically most advantageous tenders (EMAT) indicating that EMAT tenders are regarded as unstructured. However, no significance is found for larger actors performing better in bidding than smaller companies. / Offentliga upphandlingar utgör en signifikant del av Sveriges BNP. Trots detta är det en förbisedd sektor som karakteriseras av låg digitalisering och ineffektiv konkurrens där bud läggs baserat på intuition snarare än matematiska modeller. Denna avhandling ämnar skapa ett strukturerat tillvägagångssätt för budgivning inom städsektorn genom att bestämma faktorer som påverkar deltagande och prissättning. Vidare undersöker vi prisprediktionsmodeller genom att jämföra multipel linjära regressionsmodeller med en maskininlärningsmetod benämnd support vector regression. I enlighet med tidigare forskning i byggindustrin finner vi att flera faktorer som typ av kontrakt, projekttid och kontraktsplats har en statistisk signifikant påverkan på deltagande i kontrakt i städindustrin. En anmärkningsvärd skillnad är att kontraktsvärdet inte påverkar prissättning som tidigare forskning visat i andra områden. För prisprediktionen är det överraskande att den enklare linjära regressionsmodellen presterar jämlikt till den mer avancerade maskininlärningsmodellen. Stokastisk dominanstest visar att erfarna företag har en bättre precision i sin budgivning än mindre erfarna företag. Därtill lägger företag överlag mer konkurrenskraftiga bud i kontrakt där kvalitetsaspekter tas i beaktning utöver priset. Vilket kan indikera att budgivare upplever dessa kontrakt som mindre strukturerade. Däremot finner vi ingen signifikant skillnad mellan större och mindre företag i denna bemärkning.

中國13億人口的內需市場已為各產業的新興目標，尤其是在醫藥產業，中國政府於2009年宣布將投注8,500億人民幣改革中國整體醫藥建設，更為目前身處於台灣飽和市場的本土藥廠的發展契機，加上兩岸近期簽署的兩岸經濟合作架構協議(ECFA)，未來兩岸商業互動將更為頻繁。台商藥廠如何在這各界搶占的中國市場占有一席之地？掌握通路即掌握市場。 影響通路建構的因素分析，是企業市場營銷的首要步驟，公司對影響通路建構的因素越是瞭解，越是能掌握變動的市場，做出調整以因應環境的變化。本研究首先從中國醫藥品生產企業發展概況的分析，引導出跨國藥廠(歐美等國與台灣企業)進入中國市場常見的問題，並研究影響其通路建構須掌握的三大分析構面，包括醫療體制、藥品管理相關法令，以及流通企業等。 在醫療體制部分，中國的醫療市場主要集中在國有醫院(public hospitals)，但國有醫院的營銷環境複雜，受到許多來自政策、地方主義、關係資本等因素的影響，使得外來投資企業在經營中國國有醫院市場上，皆需要各方面相當的營銷資源才足以支撐。 在藥品相關法令部分，中國政府為了整頓醫藥市場混亂的景象以及減輕民眾的用藥負擔，於1998年起陸續頒布了許多藥品管理相關法令，包括國家基本藥品目錄、藥品價格管理制度，以及藥品集中招標採購制度等，這些法令雖然規範與體制化了中國醫藥市場，但也約束了醫藥通路終端市場的藥品採購，並使藥廠的通路建構彈性大幅受限。另外，雖然過去由於中國專利法發展遲滯，致使許多歐美企業無法在中國發揮藥品發明專利之市場壟斷的作用，但中國於2007年再次修定並頒布新實施的藥品註冊管理辦法，已將中國的藥品專利保護之法律與行政制度進行初步連結，未來兩者整合性的發展，將塑造出更有利於擁有強大技術與專利能量的藥廠生存的環境，此為台商不可忽視的重要課題。 在流通企業部分，中國流通企業不僅了解當地行規，通常又擅長多角化經營，掌握了大多的終端客戶，往往能夠提供藥廠代銷、物流、倉儲、收款等服務，故在流通企業在中國醫藥通路上扮演著不可或缺的角色，藥廠對流通企業的通路功能依賴性極大。 台商過去進入中國醫藥市場發展十幾年來的商業模式，是否還能足以因應未來更變化多端的市場環境？而後進中國市場的台灣藥廠又該採取怎樣的進軍策略？面對未來，台商更應「衡外情、量已力」，從各面向深入瞭解影響中國醫藥品通路建構的因素，除了鞏固既有醫藥市場與通路資源外，更應積極思考如何提高通路系統的附加價值，開創嶄新的獲利模式。本研究後續將針對前述三大影響因素，分章論述分析，最後歸納與整理影響因素對台灣藥廠所造成的困難，並提具因應上的建議，期能提供在中國發展醫藥品市場的台商企業作為未來發展策略的參考依據。 / China’s great market demand has become the new target for international enterprises, especially in pharmaceutical industry. China government announced the investment of 850 billion RMB to ameliorate the medical infrastructure in China, which indicates an opportunity for Taiwan pharmaceutical companies. The Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) between Taiwan and China will encourage a more enthusiastic interaction across the strait. Channel strategy will be the key to predominate the highly competent China market for Taiwan pharmaceutical companies. Analysis on channel construction will be the first step for industrial marketing strategy. The better a company understands the factors influential for channel construction, the better it can get control in the ever-changing market and adjust itself to cope with any alteration in the environment. This thesis will begin with an introduction on the development of pharmaceutical industry in China and thus induce some common issues with which international pharmaceutical companies are confronted in China market. It will analyze the channel construction from three important perspectives, healthcare system, pharmaceutical regulations, and logistics industry. Public hospitals play a major role in the healthcare system of China market. The marketing in public hospital involves complicated variables, including policy, local protectionism, and relationship capital. Non-local companies need every considerable resource to manage the marketing in public hospitals. In order to reform the healthcare market and lower the medical expense, China government announced several pharmaceutical regulations, including National Reimbursement Drug List (NRDL), Medicine pricing policy, and Pharmaceutical Centralized Public Bidding Procurement process. On one hand, these regulations help to put the market into order; on the other hand, it sets restricts on the retail sales and the channeling flexibility of the pharmaceutical company. Due to the slow development of China patent law in the past, moreover, a lot of American or European pharmaceutical companies could not develop an exclusive market for their drug through patent system. New Provisions for Drug Registration revised and announced by China government in 2007 established an initial connection between legal and administrative system of drug patent protection. Such integrated development will form an environment more suitable for pharmaceutical companies which possess powerful technology and patents, a significant trend for Taiwan companies’ attentions. China logistics companies understand local law and regulation and are usually familiar with multi-business strategy. They control most of the retailers and can offer sales agency, logistics, storage, and agency receipt. Logistic industry plays an important role in China pharmaceutical channel and is indispensable to pharmaceutical companies. It will be questionable whether Taiwan companies’ old business model can be sufficient for the changing China pharmaceutical market in the future. The newcomers should ponder more on their strategy for the market as well. Taiwan companies need to take the external condition and their own strength into consideration, understanding every factor of China pharmaceutical channel construction. Besides strengthening the original market and channels, Taiwan companies should aggressively enhance the add-value of channel system and find out new profit model. This thesis will focus on and elaborate the three perspectives and analyze the difficulties they bring upon Taiwan pharmaceutical companies, proposing possible solutions and future strategy for those who aim to develop their pharmaceutical business in China.

Submitted by Paulo Junior (paulo.jr@fgv.br) on 2011-04-27T19:31:34Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Ciro Fernandes.pdf: 1255722 bytes, checksum: 97776e5ab1e556d90c255bf56e4de6e4 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Paulo Junior(paulo.jr@fgv.br) on 2011-04-27T19:31:56Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Ciro Fernandes.pdf: 1255722 bytes, checksum: 97776e5ab1e556d90c255bf56e4de6e4 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2011-04-28T13:07:17Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Ciro Fernandes.pdf: 1255722 bytes, checksum: 97776e5ab1e556d90c255bf56e4de6e4 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010-04-26 / The thesis analyses political change in public procurement policy of Brazilian federal administration describing in a systematic way the six cases in which legal rules and procedures suffered substantial changes affecting general laws or statutes: the centralization of purchases in Vargas period, in two decisive moments (1931 and 1940); the revision of rules for bidding by Decree-law 200, in the context of president Castello Branco administrative reform; the enactment of a statute for biddings (Decree-law 2.300 ) in José Sarney government; the congressional approval of a general bidding law directed to fight corruption and collusion in public contracts (Law 8.666, of 1993 ); the frustrated attempt of a new bidding law aligned with the managerial public management reform of Fernando Henrique Cardoso government and the creation of reverse auction (pregão) as a new modality for bids, in 2000. The research focuses the political process of problem formulation, specification of solutions and decision-making, applying John Kingdon`s model to unfold the flows of political process, problems and solutions in each specific historical context. The six cases are described and compared by means of structured narratives and their analysis is supported on theoretical model categories to elucidate how the process of change is developed and which are the relevant actors, ideas, models and political events that explain their circumstances and result. / A tese analisa as mudanças da política de compras e contratações da administração pública federal brasileira descrevendo de forma sistemática os seis casos nos quais as regras e procedimentos sofrem alteração substancial, na forma de leis gerais ou estatutos: a centralização das compras no período Vargas, em dois momentos decisivos (1931 e 1940); a revisão das regras de licitação pelo Decreto-lei n. 200, no contexto da reforma administrativa do governo Castello Branco; a edição de um estatuto das licitações (o Decreto-lei n 2.300) no governo Sarney; a aprovação no Legislativo de uma lei de licitações voltada para o combate à corrupção e ao direcionamento dos contratos públicos (Lei 8.666); a tentativa frustrada de uma nova lei alinhada com a reforma gerencial do primeiro governo Fernando Henrique Cardoso e a criação do pregão como nova modalidade de licitação, em 2000. A pesquisa focaliza o processo político de formulação dos problemas, especificação de soluções e tomada de decisão, com base no modelo de John Kingdon, desdobrando a análise em fluxos do processo político, dos problemas emergentes e das soluções, em cada contexto histórico específico. Os seis casos são descritos por meio de narrativas estruturadas e comparados a partir das categorias do modelo teórico para elucidar como se desenvolveu o processo de mudança, quais os atores relevantes, idéias, modelos e eventos políticos que explicam suas circunstâncias e resultado.