Work, especially that in complex, dynamic workplaces, often requires subtle, local judgment with regard to timing of subtasks, relevance, importance, prioritization and so forth. Still, people in Nuclear Industry seem to think safety results from people just following procedures. In the wake of failure it can be tempting to introduce new procedures and an even stricter "rule following culture". None, or at least very little, attention is given to tacit knowledge and individual skills. I am aiming to highlight the inadequacy of putting too much trust in formalization and that reporting and trending of events will contribute to increased learning, an increased nuclear safety and an efficient operational experience. The ability to interpret a situation concrete depends on proven experience in similar situations, analogical thinking and tacit knowledge. In this essay I intend to problematize the introduction and use of so-called Corrective Action Program (CAP) and computerized reporting systems linked to CAP in the Nuclear Industry. What I found out is that the whole industry, from regulators to licensees, seems to be stuck in the idea that the scientific perspective on knowledge is the only "true" perspective. This leads to an exaggerated belief in that technology and formalized work processes and routines will create a safer business. The computerized reporting system will not, as the idea was from the beginning, contribute to increased nuclear safety since the reports is based on the trigger and not the underlying causes and in-depth analysis. Managing safety by numbers (incidents, error counts, safety threats, and safety culture indicators) is very practical but has its limitations. Error counts only uphold an illusion of rationality and control, but may offer neither real insight nor productive routes for progress on safety. The question is why the CAP, error counts and computerized reporting systems have had such a big impact in the nuclear industry? It rests after all, on too weak foundations. The answer is that the scientific perspective on knowledge is the dominating perspective. What people do not understand is that an excessive use of computerized systems and an increased formalization actually will create new risks when people lose their skills and ability to reflect and put more trust in the system than in themselves.

Syfte: Syftet med studien är att öka kunskapen och förståelsen om fastighetsförvaltningsbranschen under en Black Swan ur ett ledarperspektiv och strävar efter att besvara frågeställningen: vad har förändrats för ledarna inom fastighetsförvaltningsbranschen under Covid-19 pandemin? Metod: Insamlingen av empiri har skett genom semi-strukturerade intervjuer av nio respondenter som är ledare på olika nivåer i de fem organisationer som är representerade i studien. Resultatet från de digitala intervjuerna har transkriberats, kodats och reducerats för att utgöra grunden i formandet av studiens teori utifrån en induktiv ansats.  Resultat och slutsats: Studien visar att ledarskapet under pandemin kännetecknats av hierarkiska strukturer och auktoritära tendenser med ett ökat fokus på styrning och kontroll. De väsentliga faktorerna som förändrats för ledarna är distansarbete och digitala mötesformer vilket resulterat i ökad kommunikation och en förflyttning från strategiskt till operativt arbete. I studien identifieras även ett rationalitetsdilemma och en identitetsparadox inom branschen. Examensarbetets bidrag: Studien bidrar med kunskap och förståelse till tidigare forskning om ledares utmaningar, förändrade förutsättningar och hur ledarskapet utövats under Covid-19 pandemin. Arbetet bidrar även med empiri om ledarskapet inom fastighetsförvaltning, ett område som tidigare är förhållandevis outforskat inom ämnet Ledarskap och Organisationer.  Förslag till fortsatt forskning: Fördjupade studier är nödvändiga om ledarskapet i fastighetsförvaltningsbranschen där även medarbetarperspektivet inkluderas. Det existerar även ett behov för jämförande studier mellan branscher som påverkats på andra sätt av Covid-19 alternativt hade en mer flexibel struktur och arbetssätt före pandemin. / Aim: The study aims to add to the knowledge and understanding about the property management industry during a Black Swan event from a leader perspective and strive to answer the question: what changed for leaders in the property management industry during the Covid-19 pandemic? Method: Data collection was executed through semi-structured interviews of nine respondents who are leaders on various levels in the five organizations represented in the study. Results from the digital interviews were transcribed, coded and reduced in order to be the base for the study’s theory from an inductive approach.  Result and conclusion: The study shows that the leadership during the pandemic were characterized by hierarchical structures and authoritative tendencies with focus on management and control. Factors that have changed for leaders are primarily remote work and digital meetings which have resulted in increased communication and turn from a strategic focus to an operational. The study also identifies a rationalization dilemma and an identity paradox within the business.  Contribution of the thesis: The study adds to the understanding and knowledge of previous research on challenges, changed conditions and how the leadership is executed during the Covid-19 pandemic. It also adds empirical findings on leadership in the property management industry, a field with previously limited research within the subject Leadership and Organizations.  Suggestion for future research: Additional studies are needed about leadership within property management organizations where the employee perspective is included. Also, comparative studies are needed in other business fields where the pandemic has had a greater impact or in organizations that had a more flexible structure before the pandemic.

The aim of this study is to analyze how the depiction of a young male and female protagonist who persistently seek success differs and which film techniques are used to depict male and female perfectionism. Since 1989, young people, especially in the cultural sphere, have stated that they feel an increasing pressure from their surroundings and from themselves compared to previous generations. The strive to be successful causes anxiety, depression, and perfectionism, where the latter has been linked to narcissism. Previous studies have found that media, especially film, has a crucial impact on how viewers perceive people with mental illnesses and stereotypes concerning gender, and the exposure to gender stereotypes may influence the viewers’ physical states and attitudes. This study adopts a qualitative comparative textual analysis using case studies, with an approach called neoformalism focusing on three formal levels: narrative, stylistic and thematic. The study also includes theories from feminist film studies. The films used as case studies are Black Swan (2010) directed by Darren Aronofsky and Whiplash (2014) directed by Damien Chazelle. The result show that differences between male and female are prominent on all three levels of the film form. Nina in Black Swan needs to rely on sex to succeed and she gets punished in the end for the transgression, while Andrew in Whiplash simply practices to reach perfection. The film techniques used show more pictures of Nina's body and female props like mirrors while Andrew is shown solely around musical instruments. They are also both perfectionists and narcissists, but overall, Nina is shown to be more irrational and paranoid than Andrew and these psychological qualities are reflected in and communicated by the formal system of the films.

The diploma thesis is focused on the analysis and evaluation of risks in the introducing of new drug in the case of unexpected mass infections from the point of view of black swans. This thesis acquaints itself with the current state of the problematics, explains the terminology and meaning of black swans and gives examples of biological black swans. On the basis of the analysis and the available informations is proposed a risk assessment approach together with proposals how to reduce or eliminate possible risks.

The thesis is focused on the issue of black swans in the water structure. More detail risks and hazard dam. History has shown us that sophisticatedly structure as dam is not perfect. Failure can cause weather, natural disaster, bad chance or deliberate attack. A detailed analysis of the current situation, I mapped historic dam failure, which can cause black swan. In thesis is a reseach on knowledge of the population in this issue. Based on the analysis and obteined information was proposed measures to improve the situation.

Dans ce mémoire, nous cherchons à poser un regard nouveau sur le miroir, cet objet apparemment anodin, dont la présence au cinéma dissimule souvent un sens caché, ainsi qu’à démontrer, à travers l’élaboration d’une typologie des différentes fonctions du miroir, que la surface spéculaire se révèle souvent une clé d’interprétation importante pour saisir le sens d’un film à l’échelle du plan, de la scène ou de l’ensemble de l’œuvre. Nous tenterons, dans un premier temps, de définir et distinguer les modes de réflexivité du miroir au cinéma – concret, métaphorique, métacinématographique – pour ensuite les associer aux différents rôles que le miroir peut prendre dans les films. Enfin, nous proposerons une analyse filmique de Black Swan de Darren Aronofsky (2010), laquelle prendra appui sur l’étude des miroirs employés dans l’œuvre.

Thesis (MScEng (Industrial Engineering))--University of Stellenbosch, 2010. / ENGLISH SUMMARY: The research documents the development of a conceptual framework, the improbable circumstances strategic (ICS) framework, which guides organisations in the preparation for improbable circumstances. Four fields include: strategic management, innovation, systems thinking and complexity theories (black swans). The black swan principle was introduced with its applicability to the 2008 economic crisis. The black swan is an event which is retrospective in its predictability, highly improbable and carries extreme impact. There are various principles to cope with black swans which will now play a role in strategic management. Strategic management is studied from a systems thinking perspective which is a school of thought that strategy is a process which an organisation should follow from analysis, synthesis, implementation through to the operation phase. Some tools applicable to the analysis and synthesis phases were studied to give a greater understanding of the current field of strategic management. Innovation is an underlying principle which supports the strategic process. Innovation is a field which is currently not playing a large role in the strategy process. The principles of the innovation life cycle, innovation management and open innovation were studied to support the framework as well as create awareness around the advantages thereof within the field strategy. The dissertation uses aspects of these four fields to form the ICS framework. The framework consists of four phases: the analysis phase; the improbable event creation phase; the fragility analysis phase; and the synthesis phase. The first three phases run parallel with the current analysis phase of strategic management as the ICS framework is not designed to replace the strategic management process, but to add to it. The synthesis phase is where the design of the strategic plan for improbable circumstances takes place. Each phase sets out the inputs, requirements and deliverables needed for the successful implementation of the framework. Some tools for each of the phases are given, but they are given merely as a guideline as different organisations have the infrastructure for different tools. The framework is partially validated by being able to apply various tools to each phase, but the framework’s place in the field of strategy should be validated. The validation is done through interviews with eight industry experts in the four fields of study discussed. The results show a positive response with a call for future study through implementation, a tracking of the framework through this implementation and critical factors that arise from that. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie navorsing beskryf die ontwikkeling van ‘n moontlike raamwerk; die onverwagte omstandigheids strategiese (ICS) raamwerk, wat organisasies met die voorbereiding vir onverwagte gebeure kan help. Vier areas word beskryf wat insluit: strategiese bestuur, innovasie, stelsels denke en kompleksiteitsteorie(swart swane). Die swart swaan beginsel is gebruik weens die toepasbaarheid daarvan op die ekonomiese krisis van 2008. ‘n Swart swaan is ‘n gebeurtenis wat terugwerkend voorspelbaar is, baie onwaarskynlik en ‘n groot impak het. Daar is verskeie beginsels om swart swane te hanteer wat vorentoe ‘n rol in strategiese bestuur kan speel. Strategiese bestuur word vanuit ‘n stelsels denke oogpunt bekyk wat strategie as die proses sien wat ‘n organisasie moet volg van analises, saamvoeging en implimentering tot die bedryfsfase. Sommige tegnieke wat op analises en sintese gerig is, is ondersoek om ‘n groter begrip van strategiese bestuur te gee. Innovasie is die onderliggende beginsel wat die strategiese proses ondersteun. Innovasie speel tans nie ‘n noemenswaardige rol in die strategie proses nie. Beginsels van die innovasie siklus, innovasiebestuur en oop innovasie is ondersoek om die raamwerk te ondersteun asook om ‘n bewuswording van die voordele daarvan in strategie uit te wys. Hierdie verhandeling bespreek vier fases van die ICS raamwerk: analises; die onverwagte gebeurtenis skepping; kwesbaarheids analises; en sintese fases. Die eerste drie fases word parallel met die bestaande analitiese fases van strategie bestuur as die ICS raamwerk gedoen en is nie ontwerp om die strategie bestuurs proses te vervang nie, maar om daartoe by te dra. Gedurende die sintese fase word die ontwerp van die strategiese plan vir onverwagte gebeure gedoen. Elke fase beskryf die toevoer, benodigdhede en aflewerbares nodig vir die suksesvolle implimentering van die raamwerk. Sommige hulpmiddels vir elk van die fases word gegee, maar slegs as ‘n riglyn want verskillende organisasies het die infrastruktuur vir verskillende hulpmiddels. Die raaamwerk word deels gekontroleer deur dat dit moontlik is om verskeie hulpmiddels op elke fase toe te pas, maar die plek van die raamwerk in die area van strategie moet gekontroleer word. Kontrole is gedoen deur dit met agt industrie kenners in die vier studie velde te bespreek. Die resultate toon ‘n positiewe reaksie vir toekomstige navorsing deur implimentering en die navolg van die raamwerk deur hierdie implimentering en die kritiese faktore wat daaruit mag voorvloei te doen.

This study examines the relationship between mean reversion and a black swan event on the Swedish stock market. The data is taken from the Mid Cap and the Large Cap and then compared with the OMXS index. The purpose is to try and find evidence of mean reversion on both lists and if a black swan event will interfere with the mean reverting behaviour. The results we could find was that there is mean reversion on the market for our time period 2005-2022. We could also find evidence of mean reversion during the three black swan events, 2008 financial crisis, Brexit, and Covid-19 pandemic.

No description available.

This thesis is based on the assumption that the intersection of moral philosophy and practical risk management is a rewarding area to study. In particular, the thesis assumes that concepts, ideas, and methods that are used in moral philosophy can be of great benefit for risk analysis, but also that practices in risk regulation provide a useful testing ground for moral philosophical theories. The thesis consists of an introduction and five articles. Article I is a review article on social and ethical aspects of radiation protection related to nuclear power generation. The paper concludes that four areas of social and ethical issues stand out as central: The first is uncertainty and the influence of value judgments in scientific risk assessments. The second is the distributions of risks and benefits between different individuals, in both space and time. The third is the problem of setting limits when there is no known level of exposure associated with a zero risk. The fourth is related to stakeholder influence and risk communication. Article II discusses ethical issues related to the proposal that doses (or risks) below a certain level should be excluded from the system of radiation protection, without any regard for the number of people exposed. Different arguments for excluding small radiation doses from regulation are examined and a possible solution to the problem of regulating small risks is proposed in the article: Any exclusion of small doses (or risks) from radiation protection ought to be based on a case-by-case basis, with the condition that the expected value of harm remains small. Article III examines what makes one distribution of individual doses better than another distribution. The article introduces a mathematical framework based on preference logic, in which such assessments can be made precisely in terms of comparisons between alternative distributions of individual doses. Principles of radiation protection and from parallel discussions in moral philosophy and welfare economics are defined using this framework and their formal properties analyzed. Article IV argues that the ethical theory of “responsibility-catering prioritarianism” is well positioned to deal with the reasonable requirements in an ethical theory of risk. The article shows how responsibility-catering prioritarianism can be operationalized using a prioritarian social welfare function based on hypothetical utilities. For this purpose, a hypothetical utility measure called ‘responsibility-adjusted utility’ is proposed, which is based on the utility that would normally be expected given circumstances outside of the control of the individual. Article V was written as a response to the Fukushima disaster. Several authors have called the Fukushima disaster a ‘black swan.’ However, the article argues that the hazards of large earthquakes and tsunamis were known before the accident, and introduces and defines the concept of a ‘black elephant,’ as (i) a high-impact event that (ii) lies beyond the realm of regular expectations, but (iii) is ignored despite existing evidence. / QC 20120816