The thesis is focused on development of public finance in the Czech Republic between years 1993 and 2010. The crucial aim is to find out possible connections between increasing government deficits and the effort of politicians to be re-elected through higher government spending prior to an election. The analysis is mainly based on state and public budgets especially their annual changes in structure and basic components. I divide the cyclical and structural deficit and examine the influence of economic policy to its creation. In thesis is also described the general theory of public finance, issue of fiscal imbalance, public choice theory and its theory of political business cycle. The fiscal policy is carefully analyzed in recent electoral cycles in context of the economic and political development. The results of the analysis indicate that significant part of public debt has been created because of populist reasons especially in the period of economic expansion.

The magister thesis makes comparison of monetary causes of the crises in 1970s and the current crises in the United States of America. On the basis of theoretical part that analyzes the Austrian theory of the business cycle derives work in analytical part the consequences of monetary policy on the economy in both of observed periods. Through the use of history of monetary policy finds the thesis advice for solution to current crises. The thesis analyzes monetary instruments of American central bank and explains the mechanism of transfer of money into the economy. In the terms of current economic debates the thesis conclusion answers the question if or on what condition can actual situation of the economy of the United States of America leads in stagflation development.

Main objective of this diploma thesis is to analyze the business cycle in USA, Germany and Czech Republic in years 2005 -- 2014 and evaluate impacts on each economy and particularly on labor markets. Work contains circumstances of beginning of the world economic downturn, which hit the world economy during those years, impacts of the crisis on each economy and analysis of the stimulus packages passed by both central governments and central banks. Analysis and comparsion is made by monitoring the development of main macroeconomic indicators such as GDP growth, rate of unemployment and employment, public debt or inflation. Conclusion is that German labor market was struck the least of the three countries and it didnt suffer from high rates of unemployment or decrease of employment. That was achieved mostly because optimal labor market reforms which were done before the beginning of the crisis.

This thesis explores some different dimensions of business cycle analysis and monetary policy,in closed and open economies. In the first chapter, I develop a model to analyze the roleof research and development in the US business cycle, and its ability to produce macroeconomicfluctuations by generating expectations of future productivity gains. In the secondchapter, I empirically investigate how changes in central bank transparency affects financialmarkets response to central bank announcements in the United Kingdom. Finally, in thethird chapter, I analyze some heterogeneities in the international spillovers of central bankannouncements, focusing on the behavior of exchange rates and international capital flows.The first chapter studies the role of R&D-based innovation within the US business cycle. Thechapter builds on the idea that temporary business cycle frequency contractions can result inprolonged medium-run slowdowns, if an economy’s technological growth is generated by asector of profit-maximizing innovators. In order to analyse the business cycle spillovers oninnovation activity, this chapter analyzes the contribution of R&D-based innovation to USbusiness cycle dynamics combining techniques from the empirical and theoretical literature.First, using a Bayesian VAR identified with a Cholesky recursive formulation, the papershows that innovation shocks are generally inflationary and generate rises in hours worked.Second, the paper introduces a medium-scale New-Keynesian model of creative destructionthat can rationalize these facts. In the model, a sector of profit-maximizing innovators investsin R&D and endogenously generates productivity gains, ultimately determining theeconomy’s growth rate. The estimated responses to innovation shocks are characterized bypowerful wealth effects that offset the contractionary spillovers on the labour market conventionally associated with productivity increases. The estimation results suggest that thebulk of the productivity slowdown is due to a decrease in the innovation’s ability to generateproductivity gains. These findings support the view of the productivity slowdown as astand-alone phenomenon in the US business cycle as opposed to a byproduct of the GreatRecession.In the second chapter (jointly written with Andrzej Szczepaniak), we investigate the impactof monetary policy transparency measures on the relevance of the information effect channelof central bank communication. Our paper focuses on the switch in the Bank of England’scommunication strategy, occurred in August 2015, from a multi-day to a single-day releaseschedule. Before August 2015, the minutes of the monetary policy committee and the inflationreport (i.e. the Bank’s analysis of the economic outlook), were published only someweeks after the monetary policy decision. By contrast, after August 2015, the Bank of Englandstarted releasing all accompanying documents alongside the policy rate announcement,in the attempt to increase the transparency of its policy-making process.To this purpose, we construct a market surprise series for each one of the three communicationdocuments of the Bank of England (the monetary policy decision, the minutes of themonetary policy committee, and the economic outlook report) in order to evaluate the effectof central bank communication on agents’ expectations. The chapter builds on the idea thatmarket responses to central bank releases can be due either to unexpected deviations from thecentral bank’s policy rule (the policy component of the surprise), or to the revision of agents’expectations about future inflation (the informational component of the surprise). These twocomponents can be identified based on the associated reaction of equity prices. In the chapter,the policy component of the policy announcement is identified as an unexpected increasein the policy rate which results in a decline in equity prices, and the informational componentas an unexpected increase in the policy rate which results in a rise in equity prices, inaccordance with the methodology introduced by Jarocinski and Karadi (2020). We provideevidence that the informational component is a key driver of the financial market response tocentral bank communication. Before August 2015, according to our results, the informationeffect accounted for approximately two thirds of the interest rate surprise, the inflation expectations,and the equity price variation on the release days. However, we find that the switchfrom a multi-day release schedule to a single-day communication strategy markedly reducedthe importance of information effects. Our findings suggest that the degree of transparencyof a central bank’s policies significantly affects the quantitative relevance of the informationeffect and the associated asset price response.The third chapter (jointly written with Andrzej Szczepaniak), analyzes some of the internationalspillovers of central bank communication. The chapter highlights that the policy andthe informational component of central bank announcements entail different open economyspillovers. Namely, when unexpected increases in the US policy rate are associated withincreases in equity prices, the US dollar depreciates. We argue that this phenomenon occursbecause central bank information shocks affect investors’ risk perception. In response tofavorable central bank information shocks, we observe downward revisions of the level offinancial risk perceived by investors, which lead capital to flow towards emerging marketsand riskier asset classes. Conversely, in response to adverse central bank information shocks,we observe upward revisions of the level of financial risk perceived by investors, which leadcapital to flow towards the US and safer asset classes, causing an appreciation of the US dollar.In support to this hypothesis, we provide evidence of large spillover effects onto globalsafe-haven currencies, risk premia, cross-border credit, risky assets, and ultimately, on globaleconomic activity. / Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

Syftet med den här studien är att utreda om det finns något samband mellan den psykiska ohälsan och konjunkturcykeln i Sverige. Relationen är viktig att undersöka på grund av att en försämring av psykisk hälsa som ett resultat av ekonomiska kriser, skulle kunna leda till ytterligare kostnader såsom förlorad produktion. För att kunna sätta in relevanta insatser och eventuellt lindra negativa effekter, studeras det också om det finns skillnader mellan män och kvinnor. Indikatorer för psykisk ohälsa som används för att besvara syftet är förekomsten av suicid, användning av antidepressiva, depression samt psykiatriska tillstånd. Som konjunkturmått används bruttoregionprodukt och arbetslöshet. Ytterligare kontrollvariabler som andel utrikesfödda, befolkningstäthet och andel av befolkningen med högre utbildning inkluderas också. Regressionsanalyser görs på två olika modeller, där modell 1 fångar upp sambandet mellan ohälsa och konjunkturförändringar och modell 2 fångar upp skillnaden mellan könen. Resultatet är att under lågkonjunktur minskar användningen av antidepressiva, men ingen förändring för depression eller psykiatriska tillstånd observeras. Resultatet angående suicid är att under lågkonjunktur minskar suicidgraden mer för kvinnor än för män. Detta innebär att det delvis finns ett samband mellan konjunkturförändringar och psykisk ohälsa i Sverige. / The purpose of this study is to investigate if mental health in Sweden is connected to the business cycle. The relationship is important to investigate since deterioration of mental health, due to economic crises, could lead to additional costs in the form of losses in production. To be able to make relevant decisions to mitigate any negative effects, the question of whether there is a difference between men and women is also studied. The four different indicators that are used to describe mental illness are: suicide, antidepressants, depression, and psychiatric conditions. Gross regional product and unemployment are used as economic indicators. Additional control variables such as the share of foreign-born individuals, population density, and the share of individuals with tertiary degrees are also included. Furthermore, the regression analyses are made based on two types of models. Model number one captures the relation between mental illness and changes in business cycle, while model number two captures the difference in mental illness between genders. The results show that during recessions the consumption of antidepressants decreases while there is no change in depression and psychiatric conditions. Whereas results regarding suicide show that during recessions suicide for women decrease more than for men. This means that there is a partial relationship between cyclical changes and mental illness in Sweden.

Partial Least Squares is both a regression method and a tool for variable selection, that is especially appropriate for models based on numerous (possibly correlated) variables. While being a well established modeling tool in chemometrics, this thesis adapts PLS to financial data to predict the movements of the business cycle represented by the OECD Composite Leading Indicators. High-dimensional data is used, and a model with automated variable selection through a genetic algorithm is developed to forecast different economic regions with good results in out-of-sample tests. / Partial Least Squares är både en regressionsmetod och ett verktyg för variabelselektion som är specielltlämpligt för modeller baserade på en stor mängd (möjligtvis korrelerade) variabler.Medan det är en väletablerad modelleringsmetod inom kemimetri, anpassar den häruppsatsen PLS till finansiell data för att förutspå rörelserna av konjunkturen,representerad av OECD's Composite Leading Indicator. Högdimensionella dataanvänds och en model med automatiserad variabelselektion via en genetiskalgoritm utvecklas för att göra en prognos av olika ekonomiska regioner medgoda resultat i out-of-sample-tester

This diploma thesis focuses on financial crisis from 2007 and its impact on Czech economy. Special attention is given to four macroeconomic indicators in Czech Republic and their transformation during this crisis and after it. First part focuses on definition and description of characteristics and stages of business cycles, first in general and then specifically when talking about 2007's economic crisis. Subsequent practical part analyses specific economic repercussions stemming from the crisis, pointedly in macroeconomic indicators, state budget and mortgage market. In the final part of this thesis, the knowledge and findings about these areas, which accurately depict overall status of Czech economy during the crisis and after it are evaluated and commented on. This thesis may be used by humanities' teachers to illustrate the functioning of business cycles and their impacts on economies. KEYWORDS: Czech economy, business cycle, trade cycle, economic crisis, mortgage crisis, globalization

The thesis consists of three empirical essays on the topics of self-employment, happiness and international trade. Essay 1 studies how immigrant self-employment entry is affected by the local business cycle in Sweden. Using the unemployment rate at the local labour market level as a proxy for the local business cycle, our study shows that the self-employment entry behaviour for native men and immigrant men is negatively affected by the unemployment rate, except for immigrants from Middle East. However, such a negative effect is quantitatively weaker among the non-European immigrants. Further, the result shows that immigrants from the Middle East are positively affected by the unemployment rate, meaning they are more likely to be pushed into self-employment in recessions. For women, we also find the unemployment rate has a negative impact on the self-employment decision of native women and immigrant women, except for the Middle East group. However, compared with men, the quantitative size of the unemployment rate effect on self-employment is smaller among women, implying the less important role of business cycle in determining females’ entry into self-employment. Essay 2 investigates the non-pecuniary return of self-employment in China. The results show that the life satisfaction of self-employed men is significantly higher than that of wage-employed men; the life satisfaction of self-employed women is not statistically significant different from that of wage-employed women. Moreover, we show that the life satisfaction of self-employed men in the informal sector is significantly higher than that of wage-employed men in the formal sector. The life satisfaction of wage-employed men in the informal sector is not significantly different from that of wage-employed men in the formal sector. For women, we find that there is no significant life satisfaction disparity between workers in the formal and informal sector. Finally, our job satisfaction data also concludes that self-employment in China is not inferior to wage employment. Essay 3 evaluates how Swedish manufacturing employment is affected by the increasing import competition from China. The results show that the growth of manufacturing employment is not statistically significant affected by the increasing import competition from China. Moreover, in general, the increasing import exposure from China does not significantly affect the employment growth of non-manufacturing sector either. Regarding the earnings, the analysis shows that the low wage earners in the manufacturing sector is not significantly affected by the increasing import penetration from China while median and high wage earners are positively affected.

There has been a long discussion about macroeconomic variables influencing the level of aggregate credit risk in the economy. While literature provides both empirical evidence and theoretical explana- tion of the influence of the business cycle on credit risk, the effect of other macroeconomic variables has not been explored sufficiently. In addition, recent literature suggests the existence of a latent risk factor behind aggregate credit risk, which is regularly interpreted as the latent default cycle. This thesis provides in its first part a discussion of potential aggregate credit risk drivers, which have been previously suggested in literature. We verify using a linear regression model whether the effect of these macroeconomic variables is also apparent in the Czech Republic. Results seem to be stable for both different model specifications and different clients segments and are in line with previous studies. The second part of this thesis explicitly models the latent factor that is assumed behind aggregate credit risk by adding an unobserved component to the already existing model constructed earlier in this thesis. The unobserved component can be estimated by applying Kalman filter. We subsequently discuss the sources of the latent component and whether it can be interpreted as the default cycle. The...

Bakgrund Sedan IFRS infördes 2005 skall goodwill inte lägre skivas av utan istället testas för nedskrivning minst en gång per år. Nedskrivningsprövningen har sedan dess kritiserats av flertalet forskare och ansetts vara ett ämne för earnings management (EM). Eftersom goodwill skall värderas till verkligt värde följer viss problematik, särskilt under lågkonjunkturer då det är svårt att förutspå hur långvarig den ekonomiska nedgången förväntas bli. Cykliska branscher, såsom bankbranschen, är känsliga för förändringar i konjunkturen och således borde sådana förändringar avspeglas i bankernas goodwillpost. Syfte Studien har två övergripande syften, dels att kartlägga nedskrivningar av goodwill i nordiska storbanker och dels att testa samband mellan dessa och olika konjunkturlägen, Big Bath Accounting och Income Smoothing. Målet med studien är att komplettera det redan befintliga forskningsområdet gällande EM vid nedskrivning av goodwill. Detta genom att ta konjunkturens påverkan i beaktning samt inkludering av nordiska storbanker.   Metod Då tidigare studier inom området har exkluderat bankbranschen, var det just av denna anledning som banker valdes ut för studien. För att besvara studiens syfte och frågeställning föll sig en kvantitativ metod mest lämplig. Insamlad data från årsredovisningar perioden mellan 2006–2017 sammanställdes i statistiska modeller och tester och därmed kunde studiens resultat erhållas. Resultat & Slutsats Studiens resultat visar att varken konjunktur, utövande av Big Bath Accounting eller Income Smoothing signifikant påverkar nedskrivning av goodwill i nordiska storbanker. Studien kan därmed inte påvisa förekomsten av någon av dessa två strategier för EM, vilket motsäger tidigare forskning. Gällande konjunkturens påverkan på nedskrivning av goodwill föreligger en negativ korrelation där nedskrivningar tenderar att vara som störst under en lågkonjunktur. Dock har inget tydligt mönster för när nedskrivningar har gjorts kunnat urskiljas. / Background Since IFRS was introduced in 2005, goodwill should no longer be amortized but instead be tested for impairment at least once a year. The impairment test has been criticized by most researchers and blamed to be a topic for earnings management (EM). Because goodwill is measured at fair value, certain problems follow. Especially during recession, when it is hard to predict how long the economic downturn is expected. The banking industry are particularly sensitive to changes in the business cycle. Therefore, should these changes should be reflected in their goodwill. Purpose This study has two main purposes, partly to identify impairments of goodwill in major Nordic banks and partly to test the statistical relationship between these and different economics conditions, Big Bath Accounting and Income Smoothing. The aim of the study is to supplement the existing research regarding earnings management and impairment of goodwill. This by taking different economic conditions in account and including Nordic major banks. Method Previous studies in the research area has excluded the banking industry, for this reason, banks were selected for our study. To answer the study's purpose and issue, a quantitative method fell most suitably. To be able to perform statistical models and tests to obtain a result, data was collected from each bank annual reports during 2006–2017. Results and conclusion The result of the study shows that neither the economic conditions, Big Bath Accounting or Income Smoothing has a significant impact on the impairment of goodwill in banks Nordic Large Cap. The study could not demonstrate the presence of any of these two strategies for earnings management, which contradicts previous research. Regarding the impact of economic conditions of goodwill impairment, there is a negative correlation where write-downs tend to be greater during a recession. Thus, no pattern for when write-downs of goodwill have been made.