當代童話故事《魔幻玩具舖》再現個體於成長過程中父權與社會機制所壓抑與消音，尤其強調於成長過程中的伊底帕斯情節期。當代童話作者呈現幻滅與殘缺的社會寫實，以提供讀者真實世界的不全以及社會的異化，藉此使讀者不安；透過詭異(the uncanny)的閱讀經驗，讀者認知於自己潛意識中的壓抑，以及社會機制的缺陷。在童話的結構中最重要的為奇幻之要素，奇幻重視顯露社會中的異化與顛覆理性的成規，其建築在現實即為取得讀者之信任，然而推展至非真的境地以混淆讀者對於現實的概念；透過傾覆讀者的認知，奇幻創造出在現實規則中的間隙(breach)以及破壞權威的法則；奇幻以及童話故事的努力皆於尋求到一個更美好的家庭遠景。 第一章介紹童話的文類架構以及與奇幻的緊密關聯。第二章著重於童話理論以及其架構呈現的欲望與空缺(lack)，讀者因認知到自我的伊底帕斯經驗與社會的異化而感到不安；奇幻要素則質問社會規則以及傾覆讀者對於社會秩序的概念。第三章為《魔幻玩具舖》的童話理論分析，以詭異的效果干擾讀者。第四章表明奇幻在《魔幻玩具舖》中的顛覆力量，模糊真與非真的界線以及在社會法規中創造出間隙開啟了被壓抑與壓迫發聲的可能性。最後一章以童話與奇幻要素顛覆父權社會機制作為總結。 / The modern fairy tale, The Magic Toyshop, copes with the issue of what is repressed and muffled under the social and patriarchal restraints through the growing process of a person, especially the oedipal stage. The modern fairy tale writer presents a disillusioned picture of reality, so as to provide the reader with the real conditions of deficiency and alienation in society and unsettle the reader. Through the reading process of the uncanny, the reader recognizes what has been repressed in his unconsciousness, and thus realizes the imperfectness of the society. In the structure of the fairy tale, the most important element is the fantastic which endeavors to reveal the reality of alienation and to subvert the rules of rationality. The fantastic is built on the real in order to gain the belief of the reader; however, it then develops to the realm of the unreal in order to blur the boundary between the real and the unreal. By upsetting the reader’s conception, the fantastic creates a breach in everyday reality and undermines authoritarian rules. The ultimate efforts of the fairy tale and the fantastic are made for the quest for a real homecoming. The first chapter introduces the genre of the fairy tale and its high relevance to the fantastic. The second chapter focuses on the theory of the fairy tale and its significance in revealing what is underneath the structure, desire and lack. The reader is unsettled by recognizing his / her own oedipal experience and the alienated reality. The element of the fantastic questions the everyday rules of the social order and disturbs the reader’s perception. The third chapter is the textual analysis of the fairy tale structure and its uncanny effect on the reader as reflected in Carter’s The Magic Toyshop. The fourth chapter is the analysis of the subversive function of the fantastic in Carter’s novel. The boundary-blurring and breach-making process opens a possibility for what is repressed and oppressed. The final chapter concludes that the fairy tale and the element of the fantastic subvert the authoritative society of patriarchy.

由於台灣地區的生育率變化較大，之前的研究發現其他各國的生育率模型不見得適用，亟需建立可反映我國國情的生育率模型。本文引用台灣、日本、荷蘭、美國（亞洲、歐洲、美洲）等經濟發達國家的出生資料，配適包括Gamma、Lee-Carter、主成份分析、年齡組個別估計法、擴散模型等較為常用的模型，比較這些國家配適結果的異同。分析發現，如果要預測總生育率，台灣、日本、美國都是以年齡組生育率個別配適擴散模型的結果最佳，荷蘭則是年齡組個別估計法；在年齡組生育率的預測方面，台灣、日本、荷蘭都是以年齡組生育率個別配適擴散模型最好，美國則是以年齡組個別估計最好。此外再從相對穩定性或相對效率的角度來評判，一樣是以年齡組生育率個別配適擴散模型或年齡組個別估計的總生育率預測結果最佳。最後還觀察到台灣地區和各縣市的有偶婦女比例和生育率呈正向關係，平均生育年齡和生育率呈反向關係，各縣市在有偶婦女比例、生育率、平均生育年齡的變化並不一致，各年齡組有偶婦女比例和生育率的改變也不盡相同。

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Le rendement des compresseurs aéronautiques est amélioré en minimisant le jeu entre les aubes en rotation et le carter qui les entoure, réduisant ainsi les fuites aérodynamiques. Ce jeu réduit occasionne des contacts entre les aubes et le carter ; afin d’assurer leur intégrité mécanique, le carter est revêtu d’un matériau abradable sacrificiel, lequel accommode les incursions d’aube. Les interactions aube – revêtement abradable couplent des phénomènes tribologiques et vibratoires à haute vitesse et à haute température, dont l’étude expérimentale est requise pour le développement de modèles numériques prédictifs. L’objectif de cette thèse est d’identifier expérimentalement la force et les mécanismes d’interaction aube-abradable AlSi-Polyester dans une configuration d’essai représentative du fonctionnement des étages de compresseur basse-pression. Des méthodes couplées expérimentales - analytiques, prenant en compte la dynamique d’aube, ont été développées afin d’accéder à la force d’interaction et à l’incursion aube-abradable. L’influence de la température, de la nuance du matériau abradable et de la raideur d’aube a été étudiée. Les mécanismes d’usure et d’endommagement du revêtement abradable ont été investigués et corrélés aux conditions d’interaction. Ces travaux de thèse ont été réalisés dans le cadre d’une collaboration entre le Laboratoire de Mécanique de Lille, SNECMA Villaroche (groupe SAFRAN) et le centre ONERA de Lille. / Minimizing the clearance between turbofan blades and the surrounding casing is a key factor to re-ducing leakage flows and consequently improving efficiency. The tight clearance may lead to blade-casing interactions. An abradable coating is deposited on the casing to accommodate blade incursions and thus to protect the blades and the casing from severe damage. Blade/abradable-coating interactions involve tribological and vibratory phenomena at high velocity and temperature. Experimental knowledge of these interactions is paramount to the proper design of abradable materials and the prediction of their lifetimes through numerical simulations. The purpose of this thesis is to identify experimentally the force and the mechanisms occuring during interaction between a vibrating blade and an AlSi-Polyester abradable coating. To this end, experiments were conducted on a dedicated test rig, in conditions representative of low-pressure compressor situation. Specific methods involving dynamical measurements and analytical models have been developed in order to obtain the blade/abradable-coating interacting force as well as the blade tip incursion. The influence of temperature, coating nature and blade stiffness has been studied. The interaction mechanisms and wear of the abradable coating have been investigated and correlated with the interaction conditions. This work was achieved within the framework of cooperation between Laboratoire de Mécanique de Lille (France), SAFRAN-SNECMA (France) and ONERA, the French Aerospace Lab.

Selected Methodical Approaches to Regional Population Forecast: A case study in the South Bohemian Region Abstract The aim of this thesis is to introduce selected methodological approaches to population forecasts, focusing on the regional level and considering different lengths of time series. Specific procedures are applied to create a population forecast for the South Bohemian Region. In the theoretical part of this thesis, the stages of population forecasts processing are determined. The Cohort Component method with migration, which can be used to create population forecast, is characterized. Another part describes selected analytical models and functions for partial mortality, fertility and migration forecasts, including Indirect estimation of net migration. To extrapolate parameters, selected trending functions and the Box-Jenkins methodology are characterized in the part of the time series analysis. The analytical part of this thesis focuses on the creation of the South Bohemian Region forecast from short initial time series and long initial time series. From short initial time series, the partial forecast of mortality is analyzed by the Heligman-Pollard model, the partial forecast of fertility is analyzed by the Beta function and the partial forecast of migration is analyzed by 25%, 50% and 75%...

Dissertation thesis creates a complex and modern scheme for stochastic modeling of demographic processes, which is universally applicable to any population in the world. All calculations are described in detail on the data of the Czech Republic. Throughout the work the attention is drawn to the issues, that every analyst must necessarily take into account in order to obtain correct results. Data comes mostly from the Czech Statistical Office database. However, some data matrices had to be calculated for the purposes of the thesis. Particular demographic processes (mortality, fertility and migration) are modeled using selected modern approaches (ARIMA models, Lee-Carter method) and based on the constructed models these processes are forecasted to the future. Using partially projected results a comprehensive demographic projection of the population of the Czech Republic is created up to the year 2050. However, not on the basis of the current state and expert expectations of the future development, but based on sophistically projected demographic events, which are explained using the trends and main components of their previous development. This demographic projection is created in three scenarios (marked SC1, SC2 and SC3), which are made from selected optimal models, presented in particular sections of the work. One part of the thesis is also the backward retropolation of age-specific number of net migrants by sex in the Czech Republic since 1948. On its basis the analysis and prediction of the migration can be done. The thesis is a synthesis of the projections of demographic processess of mortality, fertility, and migration. Final results are confronted with three scenarios of population projections of the Czech Republic created by the Czech Statistical Office and five scenarios of population projections by Eurostat. The purely statistical approach of demographic forecasting in comparison with deterministic models and expert expectations has its positives and negatives. Therefore, the different results due to various methodological approaches are discussed and compared in the conclusion of the thesis.

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