This thesis aims to optimize the machine learning algorithms for predicting KPI metrics for an organization. The organization is predicting whether projects meet planned deadlines of the last phase of development process using machine learning. The work focuses on the analysis of prediction models and sets the goal of selecting new candidate models for the prediction system. We have implemented a system that automatically selects the best feature variables for learning. Trained models were evaluated by several performance metrics and the best candidates were chosen for the prediction. Candidate models achieved higher accuracy, which means, that the prediction system provides more reliable responses. We suggested other improvements that could increase the accuracy of the forecast.

<p>A neural network model was developed to predict the E. Coli levels and classes in six (6) select Lake Michigan beaches. Water quality observations at the time of sampling and discharge information from two close tributaries were used as input to predict the E. coli. This research was funded by the Indiana Department of Environmental Management (IDEM). A user-friendly Excel Sheet based tool was developed based on the best model for making future predictions of E. coli classes. This tool will facilitate beach managers to take real-time decisions.</p> <p>The nowcast model was developed based on historical tributary flows and water quality measurements (physical, chemical and biological). The model uses experimentally available information such as total dissolved solids, total suspended solids, pH, electrical conductivity, and water temperature to estimate whether the E. Coli counts would exceed the acceptable standard. For setting up this model, field data collection was carried out during 2019 beachgoer’s season.</p> <p>IDEM recommends posting an advisory at the beach indicating swimming and wading are not recommended when E. coli counts exceed advisory standards. Based on the advisory limit, a single water sample shall not exceed an E. Coli count of 235 colony forming units per 100 milliliters (cfu/100ml). Advisories are removed when bacterial levels fall within the acceptable standard. However, the E. coli results were available after a time lag leading to beach closures from previous day results. Nowcast models allow beach managers to make real-time beach advisory decisions instead of waiting a day or more for laboratory results to become available.</p> <p>Using the historical data, an extensive experiment was carried out, to obtain the suitable input variables and optimal neural network architecture. The best feed-forward neural network model was developed using Bayesian Regularization Neural Network (BRNN) training algorithm. Developed ANN model showed an average prediction accuracy of around 87% in predicting the E. coli classes. </p>

The main goal of this project, running at Neurofy AB, was that developing an AI recognition algorithm also known as, gas sensing algorithm or simply recognition algorithm, based on Artificial Intelligence (AI) technology, which would have the ability to detect or predict diary cattle diseases using odor signal data gathered, measured and provided by Gas Sensor Array (GSA) also known as, Electronic Nose or simply E-nose developed by the company. Two major challenges in this project were to first overcome the noises and errors in the odor signal data, as the E-nose is supposed to be used in an environment with difference conditions than laboratory, for instance, in a bail (A stall for milking cows) with varying humidity and temperatures, and second to find a proper feature extraction method appropriate for GSA. Normalization and Principal component analysis (PCA) are two classic methods which not only intended for re-scaling and reducing of features in a data-set at pre-processing phase of developing of odor identification algorithm, but also it thought that these methods reduce the affect of noises in odor signal data. Applying classic approaches, like PCA, for feature extraction and dimesionality reduction gave rise to loss of valuable data which made it difficult for classification of odors. A new method was developed to handle noises in the odors signal data and also deal with dimentionality reduction without loosing of valuable data, instead of the PCA method in feature extraction stage. This method, which is consisting of signal segmentation and Autoencoder with encoder-decoder, made it possible to overcome the noise issues in data-sets and it also is more appropriate feature extraction method due to better prediction accuracy performed by the AI gas recognition algorithm in comparison to PCA. For evaluating of Autoencoder monitoring of its learning rate of was performed. For classification and predicting of odors, several classifier, among alias, Logistic Regression (LR), Support vector machine (SVM), Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA), Random forest Classifier (RFC) and MultiLayer perceptron (MLP), was investigated. The best prediction was obtained by classifiers MLP . To validate the prediction, obtained by the new AI recognition algorithm, several validation methods like Cross validation, Accuracy score, balanced accuracy score , precision score, Recall score, and Learning Curve, were performed. This new AI recognition algorithm has the ability to diagnose 3 different diary cattle diseases with an accuracy of 96% despite lack of samples. / Syftet med detta projekt var att utveckla en igenkänning algoritm baserad på maskinintelligens (Artificiell intelligens (AI) ), även känd som gasavkänning algoritm eller igenkänningsalgoritm, baserad på artificiell intelligens (AI) teknologi såsom maskininlärning ach djupinlärning, som skulle kunna upptäcka eller diagnosera vissa mjölkkor sjukdomar med hjälp av luktsignaldata som samlats in, mätts och tillhandahållits av Gas Sensor Array (GSA), även känd som elektronisk näsa eller helt enkelt E-näsa, utvecklad av företaget Neorofy AB. Två stora utmaningar i detta projekt bearbetades. Första utmaning var att övervinna eller minska effekten av brus i signaler samt fel (error) i dess data då E-näsan är tänkt att användas i en miljö där till skillnad från laboratorium förekommer brus, till example i ett stall avsett för mjölkkor, i form av varierande fukthalt och temperatur. Andra utmaning var att hitta rätt dimensionalitetsreduktion som är anpassad till GSA. Normalisering och Principal component analysis (PCA) är två klassiska metoder som används till att både konvertera olika stora datavärden i datamängd (data-set) till samma skala och dimensionalitetsminskning av datamängd (data-set), under förbehandling process av utvecling av luktidentifieringsalgoritms. Dessa metoder används även för minskning eller eliminering av brus i luktsignaldata (odor signal data). Tillämpning av klassiska dimensionalitetsminskning algoritmer, såsom PCA, orsakade förlust av värdefulla informationer som var viktiga för kllasifisering. Den nya metoden som har utvecklats för hantering av brus i luktsignaldata samt dimensionalitetsminskning, utan att förlora värdefull data, är signalsegmentering och Autoencoder. Detta tillvägagångssätt har gjort det möjligt att övervinna brusproblemen i datamängder samt det visade sig att denna metod är lämpligare metod för dimensionalitetsminskning jämfört med PCA. För utvärdering of Autoencoder övervakning of inlärningshastighet av Autoencoder tillämpades. För klassificering, flera klassificerare, bland annat, LogisticRegression (LR), Support vector machine (SVM) , Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA), Random forest Classifier (RFC) och MultiLayer perceptron (MLP) undersöktes. Bästa resultate erhölls av klassificeraren MLP. Flera valideringsmetoder såsom, Cross-validering, Precision score, balanced accuracy score samt inlärningskurva tillämpades. Denna nya AI gas igenkänningsalgoritm har förmågan att diagnosera tre olika mjölkkor sjukdomar med en noggrannhet på högre än 96%.

Dans ce travail, l'approche non-paramétrique par noyaux associés mixtes multivariés est présentée pour les fonctions de densités, de masse de probabilité et de régressions à supports partiellement ou totalement discrets et continus. Pour cela, quelques aspects essentiels des notions d'estimation par noyaux continus (dits classiques) multivariés et par noyaux associés univariés (discrets et continus) sont d'abord rappelés. Les problèmes de supports sont alors révisés ainsi qu'une résolution des effets de bords dans les cas des noyaux associés univariés. Le noyau associé multivarié est ensuite défini et une méthode de leur construction dite mode-dispersion multivarié est proposée. Il s'ensuit une illustration dans le cas continu utilisant le noyau bêta bivarié avec ou sans structure de corrélation de type Sarmanov. Les propriétés des estimateurs telles que les biais, les variances et les erreurs quadratiques moyennes sont également étudiées. Un algorithme de réduction du biais est alors proposé et illustré sur ce même noyau avec structure de corrélation. Des études par simulations et applications avec le noyau bêta bivarié avec structure de corrélation sont aussi présentées. Trois formes de matrices des fenêtres, à savoir, pleine, Scott et diagonale, y sont utilisées puis leurs performances relatives sont discutées. De plus, des noyaux associés multiples ont été efficaces dans le cadre de l'analyse discriminante. Pour cela, on a utilisé les noyaux univariés binomial, catégoriel, triangulaire discret, gamma et bêta. Par la suite, les noyaux associés avec ou sans structure de corrélation ont été étudiés dans le cadre de la régression multiple. En plus des noyaux univariés ci-dessus, les noyaux bivariés avec ou sans structure de corrélation ont été aussi pris en compte. Les études par simulations montrent l'importance et les bonnes performances du choix des noyaux associés multivariés à matrice de lissage pleine ou diagonale. Puis, les noyaux associés continus et discrets sont combinés pour définir les noyaux associés mixtes univariés. Les travaux ont aussi donné lieu à la création d'un package R pour l'estimation de fonctions univariés de densités, de masse de probabilité et de régression. Plusieurs méthodes de sélections de fenêtres optimales y sont implémentées avec une interface facile d'utilisation. Tout au long de ce travail, la sélection des matrices de lissage se fait généralement par validation croisée et parfois par les méthodes bayésiennes. Enfin, des compléments sur les constantes de normalisations des estimateurs à noyaux associés des fonctions de densité et de masse de probabilité sont présentés. / This work is about nonparametric approach using multivariate mixed associated kernels for densities, probability mass functions and regressions estimation having supports partially or totally discrete and continuous. Some key aspects of kernel estimation using multivariate continuous (classical) and (discrete and continuous) univariate associated kernels are recalled. Problem of supports are also revised as well as a resolution of boundary effects for univariate associated kernels. The multivariate associated kernel is then defined and a construction by multivariate mode-dispersion method is provided. This leads to an illustration on the bivariate beta kernel with Sarmanov's correlation structure in continuous case. Properties of these estimators are studied, such as the bias, variances and mean squared errors. An algorithm for reducing the bias is proposed and illustrated on this bivariate beta kernel. Simulations studies and applications are then performed with bivariate beta kernel. Three types of bandwidth matrices, namely, full, Scott and diagonal are used. Furthermore, appropriated multiple associated kernels are used in a practical discriminant analysis task. These are the binomial, categorical, discrete triangular, gamma and beta. Thereafter, associated kernels with or without correlation structure are used in multiple regression. In addition to the previous univariate associated kernels, bivariate beta kernels with or without correlation structure are taken into account. Simulations studies show the performance of the choice of associated kernels with full or diagonal bandwidth matrices. Then, (discrete and continuous) associated kernels are combined to define mixed univariate associated kernels. Using the tools of unification of discrete and continuous analysis, the properties of the mixed associated kernel estimators are shown. This is followed by an R package, created in univariate case, for densities, probability mass functions and regressions estimations. Several smoothing parameter selections are implemented via an easy-to-use interface. Throughout the paper, bandwidth matrix selections are generally obtained using cross-validation and sometimes Bayesian methods. Finally, some additionnal informations on normalizing constants of associated kernel estimators are presented for densities or probability mass functions.

<p>Breeding for improved animal welfare is paramount for increasing the long-term sustainability of the animal food industry. In this context, the main objectives of this dissertation were to understand the genetic and genomic background of welfare indicators in livestock and evaluate the feasibility of single-step Genomic Best Linear Unbiased Prediction (ssGBLUP) for performing genomic selection in beef cattle. This dissertation includes five studies. First, we aimed to test and identify an optimal ssGBLUP scenario for crossbreeding schemes. We simulated multiple populations differing based on the genetic background of the trait, and then we tested alternative models, such as multiple-trait weighted ssGBLUP. Even though more elaborated scenarios were evaluated, a single-trait ssGBLUP approach was recommended when genetic correlation across populations were higher than 0.70. The goal of the second study was to identify genomic regions controlling behavior traits that are conserved across livestock species. We systematically reviewed genomic regions associated with behavioral indicators in beef and dairy cattle, pigs, and sheep. The genomic regions identified in this study were located in genes previously reported controlling human behavioral, neural, and mental disorders. In the third study we used a large dataset (675,678 records) from North American Angus cattle to investigate the genetic background of temperament, a behavioral indicator, recorded on one-year-old calves, and provide the models and protocols for implementing genomic selection. We reported a heritability estimate equal to 0.38 for yearling temperament, and it was, in general, genetically favorably correlated with other productivity and fertility traits. Candidate genomic regions controlling yearling temperament were also identified. The fourth study was based on temperament recorded on North American Angus cows from 2 to 15 years of age (797,187 records). The goal was to understand the genetic and genomic background of temperament across the animal’s lifetime. By fitting a random regression model, we observed that temperament is highly genetically correlated across time. However, animals have differential learning and behavioral plasticity (LBP; changes of the phenotype overtime), although the LBP heritability is low. In our last study we evaluated foot scores (foot angle, FA; and claw set, CS) in American (US) and Australian (AU) Angus cattle aiming to assess the genetic and genomic background of foot scores and investigate the feasibility of performing an across-country genomic evaluation (~1.15 million animals genotyped). Foot scores are heritable (heritability from 0.22 to 0.27), and genotype-by-environment interaction was observed between US and AU Angus populations (genetic correlation equal to 0.61 for FA and 0.76 for CS). An across-country genomic prediction outperformed within-country evaluations in terms of predictivity ability (bias, dispersion, and validation accuracy) and theoretical accuracies. We have also identified genes associated with FA and CS previously reported in human’s bone structure and repair mechanism. In conclusion, this dissertation presents a comprehensive genetic and genomic characterization of welfare indicators (temperament and foot scores) in (inter)national livestock populations. </p>

This work deals with designing and testing of new acoustic features for analysis of dysprosodic speech occurring in hypokinetic dysarthria patients. 41 new features for dysprosody quantification (describing melody, loudness, rhythm and pace) are presented and tested in this work. New features can be divided into 7 groups. Inside the groups, features vary by the used statistical values. First four groups are based on absolute differences and cumulative sums of fundamental frequency and short-time energy of the signal. Fifth group contains features based on multiples of this fundamental frequency and short-time energy combined into one global intonation feature. Sixth group contains global time features, which are made of divisions between conventional rhythm and pace features. Last group contains global features for quantification of whole dysprosody, made of divisions between global intonation and global time features. All features were tested on Czech Parkinsonian speech database PARCZ. First, kernel density estimation was made and plotted for all features. Then correlation analysis with medicinal metadata was made, first for all the features, then for global features only. Next classification and regression analysis were made, using classification and regression trees algorithm (CART). This analysis was first made for all the features separately, then for all the data at once and eventually a sequential floating feature selection was made, to find out the best fitting combination of features for the current matter. Even though none of the features emerged as a universal best, there were a few features, that were appearing as one of the best repeatedly and also there was a trend that there was a bigger drop between the best and the second best feature, marking it as a much better feature for the given matter, than the rest of the tested. Results are included in the conclusion together with the discussion.

The use of autonomous robots in our society is increasing every day and a robot is no longer seen as a tool but as a team member. The robots are now working side by side with us and provide assistance during dangerous operations where humans otherwise are at risk. This development has in turn increased the need of robots with more human-awareness. Therefore, this master thesis aims at contributing to the enhancement of human-aware robotics. Specifically, we are investigating the possibilities of equipping autonomous robots with the capability of assessing and detecting activities in human teams. This capability could, for instance, be used in the robot's reasoning and planning components to create better plans that ultimately would result in improved human-robot teamwork performance. we propose to improve existing teamwork activity recognizers by adding intangible features, such as stress, motivation and focus, originating from human behavior models. Hidden markov models have earlier been proven very efficient for activity recognition and have therefore been utilized in this work as a method for classification of behaviors. In order for a robot to provide effective assistance to a human team it must not only consider spatio-temporal parameters for team members but also the psychological.To assess psychological parameters this master thesis suggests to use the body signals of team members. Body signals such as heart rate and skin conductance. Combined with the body signals we investigate the possibility of using System Dynamics models to interpret the current psychological states of the human team members, thus enhancing the human-awareness of a robot. / Användningen av autonoma robotar i vårt samhälle ökar varje dag och en robot ses inte längre som ett verktyg utan som en gruppmedlem. Robotarna arbetar nu sida vid sida med oss och ger oss stöd under farliga arbeten där människor annars är utsatta för risker. Denna utveckling har i sin tur ökat behovet av robotar med mer människo-medvetenhet. Därför är målet med detta examensarbete att bidra till en stärkt människo-medvetenhet hos robotar. Specifikt undersöker vi möjligheterna att utrusta autonoma robotar med förmågan att bedöma och upptäcka olika beteenden hos mänskliga lag. Denna förmåga skulle till exempel kunna användas i robotens resonemang och planering för att ta beslut och i sin tur förbättra samarbetet mellan människa och robot. Vi föreslår att förbättra befintliga aktivitetsidentifierare genom att tillföra förmågan att tolka immateriella beteenden hos människan, såsom stress, motivation och fokus. Att kunna urskilja lagaktiviteter inom ett mänskligt lag är grundläggande för en robot som ska vara till stöd för laget. Dolda markovmodeller har tidigare visat sig vara mycket effektiva för just aktivitetsidentifiering och har därför använts i detta arbete. För att en robot ska kunna ha möjlighet att ge ett effektivt stöd till ett mänskligtlag måste den inte bara ta hänsyn till rumsliga parametrar hos lagmedlemmarna utan även de psykologiska. För att tyda psykologiska parametrar hos människor förespråkar denna masteravhandling utnyttjandet av mänskliga kroppssignaler. Signaler så som hjärtfrekvens och hudkonduktans. Kombinerat med kroppenssignalerar påvisar vi möjligheten att använda systemdynamiksmodeller för att tolka immateriella beteenden, vilket i sin tur kan stärka människo-medvetenheten hos en robot. / <p>The thesis work was conducted in Stockholm, Kista at the department of Informatics and Aero System at Swedish Defence Research Agency.</p>

Atrial fibrillation is a common heart arrhythmia which is characterized by a missing or irregular contraction of the atria. The disease is a risk factor for other more serious diseases and the total medical costs in society are extensive. Therefore it would be beneficial to improve and optimize the prevention and detection of the disease.   Pulse palpation and heart auscultation can facilitate the detection of atrial fibrillation clinically, but the diagnosis is generally confirmed by an ECG examination. Today there are several algorithms that detect atrial fibrillation by analysing an ECG. A common method is to study the heart rate variability (HRV) and by different types of statistical calculations find episodes of atrial fibrillation which deviates from normal sinus rhythm.   Two algorithms for detection of atrial fibrillation have been evaluated in Matlab. One is based on the coefficient of variation and the other uses a logistic regression model. Training and testing of the algorithms were done with data from the Physionet MIT database. Several steps of signal processing were used to remove different types of noise and artefacts before the data could be used.   When testing the algorithms, the CV algorithm performed with a sensitivity of 91,38%, a specificity of 93,93% and accuracy of 92,92%, and the results of the logistic regression algorithm was a sensitivity of 97,23%, specificity of 93,79% and accuracy of 95,39%. The logistic regression algorithm performed better and was chosen for implementation in Java, where it achieved a sensitivity of 97,31%, specificity of 93,47% and accuracy of 95,25%. / Förmaksflimmer är en vanlig hjärtrytmrubbning som kännetecknas av en avsaknad eller oregelbunden kontraktion av förmaken. Sjukdomen är en riskfaktor för andra allvarligare sjukdomar och de totala kostnaderna för samhället är betydande. Det skulle därför vara fördelaktigt att effektivisera och förbättra prevention samt diagnostisering av förmaksflimmer.   Kliniskt diagnostiseras förmaksflimmer med hjälp av till exempel pulspalpation och auskultation av hjärtat, men diagnosen brukar fastställas med en EKG-undersökning. Det finns idag flertalet algoritmer för att detektera arytmin genom att analysera ett EKG. En av de vanligaste metoderna är att undersöka variabiliteten av hjärtrytmen (HRV) och utföra olika sorters statistiska beräkningar som kan upptäcka episoder av förmaksflimmer som avviker från en normal sinusrytm.   I detta projekt har två metoder för att detektera förmaksflimmer utvärderats i Matlab, en baseras på beräkningar av variationskoefficienten och den andra använder sig av logistisk regression. EKG som kommer från databasen Physionet MIT används för att träna och testa modeller av algoritmerna. Innan EKG-signalen kan användas måste den behandlas för att ta bort olika typer av brus och artefakter.   Vid test av algoritmen med variationskoefficienten blev resultatet en sensitivitet på 91,38%, en specificitet på 93,93% och en noggrannhet på 92,92%. För logistisk regression blev sensitiviteten 97,23%, specificiteten 93,79% och noggrannheten 95,39%. Algoritmen med logistisk regression presterade bättre och valdes därför för att implementeras i Java, där uppnåddes en sensitivitet på 91,31%, en specificitet på 93,47% och en noggrannhet på 95,25%.

Wo und wie werden komplexe Regelsätze im Gehirn repräsentiert? Drei empirische Studien dieser Doktorarbeit untersuchen dies experimentell. Eine weitere methodische Studie liefert Beiträge zur Weiterentwicklung der genutzten empirischen Methode. Die empirischen Studien nutzen multivariate Musteranalyse (MVPA) funktioneller Magnetresonanzdaten (fMRT) gesunder Probanden. Die Fragestellungen der methodischen Studie wurden durch die empirischen Arbeiten inspiriert. Wirkung und Anwendungsbreite der entwickelten Methode gehen jedoch über die Anwendung in den empirischen Studien dieser Arbeit hinaus. Die empirischen Studien bearbeiten Fragen wie: Wo werden Hinweisreize und Regeln repräsentiert, und sind deren Repräsentationen voneinander unabhängig? Wo werden Regeln repräsentiert, die aus mehreren Einzelregeln bestehen, und sind Repräsentationen der zusammengesetzten Regeln Kombinationen der Repräsentationen der Einzelregeln? Wo sind Regeln verschiedener Hierarchieebenen repräsentiert, und gibt es einen hierarchieabhängigen Gradienten im ventrolateralen präfrontalen Kortex (VLPFK)? Wo wird die Reihenfolge der Regelausführung repräsentiert? Alle empirischen Studien verwenden informationsbasiertes funktionales Mapping ("Searchlight"-Ansatz), zur hirnweiten und räumlich Lokalisierung von Repräsentationen verschiedener Elemente komplexer Regelsätze. Kernergebnisse der Arbeit beinhalten: Kompositionalität neuronaler Regelrepräsentationen im VLPFK; keine Evidenz für Regelreihenfolgenrepräsentation im VLPFK, welches gegen VLPFK als generelle Task-Set-Kontrollregion spricht; kein Hinweis auf einen hierarchieabhängigen Gradienten im VLPFK. Die komplementierende methodische Studie präsentiert "The Same Analysis Approach (SAA)", ein Ansatz zur Erkennung und Behebung experimentspezifischer Fehler, besonders solcher, die aus Design–Analyse–Interaktionen entstehen. SAA ist für relevant MVPA, aber auch für anderen Bereichen innerhalb und außerhalb der Neurowissenschaften. / Where and how does the brain represent complex rule sets? This thesis presents a series of three empirical studies that decompose representations of complex rule sets to directly address this question. An additional methodological study investigates the employed analysis method and the experimental design. The empirical studies employ multivariate pattern analysis (MVPA) of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data from healthy human participants. The methodological study has been inspired by the empirical work. Its impact and application range, however, extend well beyond the empirical studies of this thesis. Questions of the empirical studies (Studies 1-3) include: Where are cues and rules represented, and are these represented independently? Where are compound rules (rules consisting of multiple rules) represented, and are these composed from their single rule representations? Where are rules from different hierarchical levels represented, and is there a hierarchy-dependent functional gradient along ventro-lateral prefrontal cortex (VLPFC)? Where is the order of rule-execution represented, and is it represented as a separate higher-level rule? All empirical studies employ information-based functional mapping ("searchlight" approach) to localise representations of rule set features brain-wide and spatially unbiased. Key findings include: compositional coding of compound rules in VLPFC; no order information in VLPFC, suggesting VLPFC is not a general controller for task set; evidence against the hypothesis of a hierarchy-dependent functional gradient along VLPFC. The methodological study (Study 4) introduces "The Same Analysis Approach (SAA)". SAA allows to detect, avoid, and eliminate confounds and other errors in experimental design and analysis, especially mistakes caused by malicious experiment-specific design-analysis interactions. SAA is relevant for MVPA, but can also be applied in other fields, both within and outside of neuroscience.